BS: Obit for the Mac

Subject: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:24 PM

From a newsletter by Jim Louderback, and editor at Ziff-Davis, publisher of several (in fact nearly all) Computer Magazines on US store shelves:

"Ding Dong, the Mac Is Dead
"That's what John C. Dvorak has concluded. He doesn't base his conclusions on market-share numbers, but instead via an intriguing online stat: how much Internet activity is Mac-based. And the answer is a miniscule and declining amount. John has laid out three reasons for the impending doom, and then adds a zinger: that the Mac's vaunted ease of use is what will slay it in the end. Read his thought-provoking column about why the Macintosh will fade away. And then complain to him, not to me!"

The link is to a two page article. This site usually disables direct connection to the print version, but if you click on "print" at the bottom of the first page you can read the article "all in one piece."

For those who don't know (probably most) John C. Dvorak is the official "house curmudgeon" for a couple of magazines. In PC Magazine he writes a monthly column like the one cited, and a "Predictions" page in which he expounds on what's right - what's wrong – and who's doing something stupid at the moment. He has, in the past, made many favorable comments about Mac, so this isn't just "anti-Mac" stuff.

I'm with Jim Louderback: I don't really care much whether he's right or not. I did think it interesting that Linux systems currently account for about 50% more web traffic than Macs. I would have expected both to be much higher than shown by the W3C report.

And I don't intend this as "Mac bashing." I just thought it was an interesting line of thought that some might be interested in.

John

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:32 PM

John:

I'm afraid you and Dvorak are both wrong. Unless Longhorn finally makes a debut, the platform that is stagnating is Windows, which has needed a major overhaul since 1995 and not, actually, gotten one. The Mac OS, on the other hand, stepped into the next century with the introduction of an all Unix-based system, with all the sturdiness that brings with it. Dvorak is just dramatizing his own rep as a curmudgeon -- he is grabbing stistics out of context and trying to sound like some old silverback. I am not impressed. I've seen the growth in Internet users switching to the Mac OS locally and I am sure it is not just a local phenomenon. It could be an interesting line of thought if the reasoning had merit, but honestly, I don't see any merit in it.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: CarolC
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:42 PM

My son is a filmmaker, and he says you can't do a lot of the kind of video editing work he does on a PC. He will probably continue to use a Mac for as long as they are available. And if they are discontinued, he will be pissed.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:51 PM

There is no reason to expect they will be, Carol -- they are the tech of choice in any industry depedning on high-res precision video work.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Metchosin
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:53 PM

Ditto my daughter, CarolC.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:57 PM

Apple appears to be planning a very inexpensive entry to attract the low end of the market, according to this article:

http://www.thinksecret.com/news/0412expo2.html

Regards,


A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Peace
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 03:58 PM

Interesting article, John. I have thought for years that the only advance civilization has made since the mouse trap is the Mac Computer. Easy to use and user-friendly. For a computer idiot like me, that IS the sales pitch.

Thanks for posting it.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Bert
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 04:39 PM

Apple blew it a long time ago. They had a leading position in the PC market. Instead of improving and upgrading their winning Apple II series they threw away all their loyal followers and introduced the Mac which would not run ANY of the II series software.

Had they put that Mac effort into upgrading the IIC they would be unbeatable now.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: robomatic
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 04:57 PM

My first computer was a MAC and I loved it. That love does not extend to the company behind it which was full of great engineers and some nasty executives with nasty policies, part of the reason Macintosh owns so little of a personal computer market they once had a shot at controlling.

Nevertheless, I don't think Macs are in any danger. I know too many people who love the OS and Microsoft hasn't exactly been making many friends out there. I am currently working with Linux in the hope that it can provide me the variety and stability I need. The company has consistently been a 'style' leader and is financially doing very well due to the success of the iPOD.

Now that I've started off with my opinion, I'll read the article you referenced!

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 05:19 PM

Amos (in particular)

I think you'll find that Dvorak does say the Mac is the better platform, although he may state it in a sort of backhanded manner. What I found interesting was his assessment of the "commercial" situation, and the screwed up marketing that makes inferior products the leading sellers.

I was also somewhat amazed at the W3C committe's numbers on the relatively low web traffic generated by both Mac and Linux users, and though that might be of interest. The traffic numbers do not seem to agree too well with recent prior reports I've seen citing user statistics.

As with most Dvorak opinions (always clearly labelled), one must "plant tongue firmly in cheek while reading."

John

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: robomatic
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 06:05 PM

Okay. I liked the article, because the guy (Dvorak) is thinking for himself, makes good points, and asks good questions, a few of which I may have asked myself.

As for the argument about 'tight code' I sympathize. I took some programming in high school, more in college, and I like talking about it as if I knew more than I do. But it comes down to marketing, and the situation is that the consumer is unaware of how much time and memory can be saved by good programming. But it cuts both ways. The desire of programmers to produce 'good code' is universal, and we shouldn't assume that it is solely the province of Apple. And ultimately, consumers will buy what works for them, regardless on whether it's on CDs or floppies (Macintoshes haven't come with floppy readers for years).

I remember supposedly technically 'sophistimicated' folks who complained about the early Macs devotion to fonts instead of context, the extra expense of all that mouse software, but they didn't take into account the high number of PC Windows crashes and the time spent reloading (and reloading) their software.

I remember that in spite of the clutsiness of Windows 1.0, Microsoft provided true multi-tasking to the PC world way ahead of the Apple Macintosh. And affordable color screens.

It is a treat to go into CompUSA and open up a Mac. It looks so truely elegant and well designed. Someone has engineered those boxes with love. They're quiet. You should see it even if you don't ever intend to buy one.

I invested in a PC a few years ago and had so much fun (not meant satirically) playing with the innards and putting together my own computers from catalog parts that I haven't looked back.

The computer world has been lucky to have these two operating systems to play off each other, as well as Intel and Advanced Micro Devices. It would be a shame to lose either one of 'em and I don't feel that we're going to.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Bardford
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 06:33 PM

Jeepers! It's deja vu all over again...

Macintosh Death Knell Counter

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: GUEST,Jon
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 07:50 PM

"I did think it interesting that Linux systems currently account for about 50% more web traffic than Macs."

I can't even figure out comments like that. As far as I'm concerned, a Mac (although there are are Mac OSs) is a chunk of hardware as is a PC...

We all have our own opinions of the merits of hardware and software but I think that in the long term, the PC will win out over the Mac. This has nothing to do with quality or performance (unless something fantastically superior was produced) but down to choice and competiveness on price. You can pretty well build a PC from components from a variety of suppliers, etc.

Similarly with OS, I expect that the open source movements will knock huges chunks out of MS and commercial software. The gap on desktop software is closing all the while. In that sense, Mac by adopting the unix like (freebsd based?) OSX has probably at least bought time and perhaps more.

I'd like to think that in a few years time what we will be writing an obit to more than anything else is ridiculously overpriced software.

Jon

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: mack/misophist
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 11:13 PM

1. CarolC's comment is interesting because, for the last couple of years, there has been a steady trickle of articles about major studios and post-production companies switching to linux. Not because the available software is any better but because there are no licensing fees, which provides an immense savings.

2. Web statistics regarding linux use, other than servers, may not be reliable. Many web sites don't display properly on a linux machine unless you set the browser's 'user agent' to tell the server that you're using IExplorer, in which case they all go away (the display problems, that is).

3. Most of my Mac using friends are delighted with their machines, except for the few who want to do their own hardware upgrades. They tell me Apple does everything it can to make that impossible. And they cost too much.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Rapparee
Date: 31 Dec 04 - 11:51 PM

I truly hope that Linux and the Open Source movement does in Windows and other proprietary software. I'm a big fan of and believer in The Cathedral and the Bazaar philosophy. But...there also has to be good support and for general acceptance the software should be simple to use. In fact, in my opinion GOOD software is so intuitive and so easy to use that it's absolutely transparent to the user. It also has no bugs in it, never burps, and is visited daily by the tooth fairy....

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: CarolC
Date: 01 Jan 05 - 12:46 AM

mack/misophist, my son is an indie (independent) filmmaker using a Mac he obtained a few years ago (and even with that, he says his old Mac is better than a new PC for the kinds of work he needs to do). I don't know if he's even tried using linux unless it was available for student use in the film department at his university. I'll have to make a point of asking him about it.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 01 Jan 05 - 11:28 AM

You buy a Mac with the OS so I don't see where Linux saves you any money there. If you can find powerful open-source apps to do what you need Linux might be a better bet, but bear in mind that OSX is a true UNIX OS.

Anyway, I know what I choose, and why. I have avoiided uncountable hours of suffering and cursing by being a Mac user and I think I'll continue as one. I love 'em. Their design and attention to workability in both h/w and s/w speaks to my very soul. I use Wintel systems all the time, but I will never (unless there are dramatic changes) buy one.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 01 Jan 05 - 06:24 PM

For the Wall Street Journal, Tim Hanrahan and Jason Fry write, "In Monday's column, we predicted that the combination of the iPod's popularity and the increasing worry over viruses, security holes and spyware in Windows PCs will lead to the second coming of Apple Computer as a home-computing power. To say that struck a chord would be putting it mildly. Boy, did we ever get mail - including a significant number of people who said that the iPod, Windows security concerns or a combination of the two had made them switch to a Mac or plan to do so."

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Peter T.
Date: 01 Jan 05 - 06:48 PM

I think one of the interesting things that is happening is that the elite design community has finally discovered the virtues of open source as an engine of innovation.    My personal experience is that believers in commons and Mac people tend to have related philosophies about elegance and simplicity: the real issue is getting these in sync -- to have some faith in the wider wisdom of the community of users, but also to promote the elegance of design. I suspect that this is happening: it is a pity it has taken so long.   The trick is to find the right sequence of designer/community/designer/community, so that each do their best.   

yours,

Peter T.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: EBarnacle
Date: 01 Jan 05 - 11:09 PM

My web maven used his MAC when he was putting my business page together [http://provenanceregistry.com/]. He is completely contemptuous of Windows. On the other hand, when I tried to do my e-mail on his machine, it kept refusing to recognize hotmail. Perhaps MAC also has an "If I don't see it, perhaps it will go away" attitude. hmmm?

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 01 Jan 05 - 11:14 PM

EB:

My daughter uses hotmail frequently when traveling, and always with Macs. So it is not the Mac that was the issue. It might have been aproblem with your registration or password, with the network configuration, or some transient glistch inviolving just the one session. But it wasn't inherently the Mac or using a Mac.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Bat Goddess
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 10:51 AM

Macs are still more compatible and do things that Wintel boxes can't in the printing industry, too.

As a friend said recently on our local MacGeek forum, "Couple this with the conventions permeating Wintel that deliberately defy or ignore convenient printerly 'givens' that make typography ffriendlier to WYSIWYG displays where points and pixels have the same value. Traditional fonts have had to be adapted to Wintel, not the other way around. The tool, as it were, isn't best suited for graphics work, it's best suited to increasing dependency on Microsoft."

The person I quoted was head of printing for the state of NH and later head of printing and publications for Boston University. Since then he's been brokering printing, developing applications and generally messing around with computers and print production. Oh, and he also plays banjo.

Linn

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: GUEST,observer
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 11:14 AM

Question: What is the worlds third fastest supercomputer?

Answer: A group of G5's
"The machine, strung together from 1,100 dual-processor Power Mac G5s, is the first supercomputer made from Macs. It is also one of the cheapest supercomputers ever made, costing a relatively modest $5.2 million. The Earth Simulator cost an estimated $350 million to $400 million."

And don't forget, many times in the past, Dvorak has written things of this nature in order to "rally the Mac troops." (No t that we need much of a push in that direction!)

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Guy Wolff
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 11:15 AM

For the design work I live by I could not be more happy with the OSX family .. At this point flighing to the shops has been replaced at least 70% by the work I can send via Eamail . Instant adobes and jepgs in effortless speed... Hard to emagine that a smart audience wont use such great products.... Plus Steve Jobs is a nice Guy !!!!    Anything I have to buy will be MAC .         all the best < Guy

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: robomatic
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 11:16 AM

My take on all of this is:

1) The competitions amongst Windows, MAC OS, and Linux is greatly beneficial to users.
2) The competition between Intel and AMD Ditto.
3) In the meantime it's brutal to the companies. Compaq is gone (into HP) IBM PC is 'gone to China'. I believe Cyrix (chip maker is gone). Transmeta is still out there I believe.

So:

Don't look for MAC to go away. They have a small percentage but a large volume in itself.

Don't look for MAC to conquer. MAC has always had a hold on those who profess to love 'elegance'. But the dominion goeth to the cheapeth.

Linux has done a good whittlin' job against all other OS's. Now there is competition within Linux suppliers, which will either balkanize this growing OS or provide a stronger, leaner competitor. Unknown. But it's another MAC displacer with its own kind of elegance.

I remember when ARCO (then one of the largest employers in Alaska) decided all at once to give up on MAC and one of the largest office towers in town practically rained down MAC desktops. There may be few such heavy losses ahead for MAC, but mass conversions TO MAC are as likely as rain falling uphill (which it can do, but not often!)

I'll close with a quote attributed to Lenin:
"Quantity has a Quality all its own."

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 12:04 PM

Windows machines waste my time by the scores of hours. They do so in myriad ways, interruptiong my attention, forcing waits, sending incomprehensible messages, being obstreperous for reasons not made clear, and so on. Others have suffered far worse with installation nightmares and the like.

Macs have wasted some of my time as well, but much less of it, unless you count the things I do to enjoy myself using one!!

A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: mack/misophist
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 03:40 PM

If there's anything truly wrong with the Mac, other than the price, it's the one button mouse. After having come to rely on three buttons, I can't imagine doing with less.

OS X is indeed a unix system, being based on the BSD-Lite kernel and parts of Darwin. I guess they used such an old kernel because most of the hardware is proprietary.

That G5 supercomputer was cheap because of the operating temperature of the chip, which allowed them to cram a lot of them into a relatively small space, thus saving a bundle on associated hardware. The big Krays generated so much heat they had to use liquid nitrogen for cooling.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: mack/misophist
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 03:42 PM

Continued from above:

It may not be proper to call that supercomputer a Mac machine since I'm almost certain that Motorola makes the chip.

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: NH Dave
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 05:31 PM

Initially the Steves used proprietary chips in their machines that could only be obtained from Apple, and discouraged users from actually getting into the guts of their Macs and messing around. As late as a few years ago, while the Mac was still a one box machine, electronics magazines providing articles on making a hybrid Mac machine noted that you had to get the chips from a disused Mac to make their new Whiz Bang computer. During the same period, IBM and clones used Intel chips readily available on the open market, and experimentation was encouraged. Compaq was one of, if not the first, clone maker that provided computers that were better than IBM, and with more features, at a lower price.

Since then both platforms have had numerous improvements driven, no doubt, by what their users wanted and needed. At that time, I would have recommended any new user to start off with a Mac. As Linn noted earlier, Macs are THE machine for graphic developers, and people in the printing industry, and she's a typographer who started off in the old days, (can you say movable type and metal plates?)but has used Macs for the last 10 - 15 years, in her work. Although market surveys indicate that Macs hold 10 - 15% of the user base and dropping, these surveys don't indicate what these users do with their computers, and why they can't get the same results with a WINTEL computer.

Although the Mac is accepted as a better designed machine, and its price frequently reflects this situation, may users like myself still use and purchase WINTEL computers because we really don't want to have to relearn everything we have learned about computers in the Mac arena.      

Dave

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 06:36 PM

Dave:

The Macs have always used Motorola 68xxxx chips until the advent of the Power PC. They have been for sale to the public as well, as far as I know. I don't know what "the Steves" used intheir original Apple I's but they were 8 bit machines, not much of an issue today except as antiqyes.


The Mac user share of the total PC market is not 10-15% and dropping; it is closer to 5-8% and climbing steadily since the advent of the iMac and OSX.

You may buy what you want, but there is no great learning curve with the Mac.

I hardly ever touch a one-button mouse -- I use a four-button track ball which is completely programmable and easier by far on the wrist.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: GUEST,Jon
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 07:32 PM

"Macs are still more compatible and do things that Wintel boxes can't in the printing industry, too."

But again, we are talking as if a PC is a Wintel box. It isn't and the last PC I bought had no OS. If there is a problem with the printing, I can only imagine it is down to the software and, yes, I have no difficulty in believing that MS would "re-invent" standards to suit themselves in that area - they do it elsewhere...

On the subject of obits or changing systems, after a couple of years of dabbling with Linux on and off on dual boot but never really using it much, I have finally taken the plunge and my desktop PC is now a Linux box (not even a "Lintel" btw I suppose it's a "Lamd". I'm likely to change Pip's box over too. That leaves only my Laptop as a Wintel machine and that may change in a years time.

I am toying with the idea of getting a Mac btw but an older one. I would like to use Barfly but have not had much joy with using Basilisk II, the only free Mac emulator I know of. Barfly runs on Pip's Win setup but is slow and I don't seem able to get Basilisk working correctly on my Linux box - it runs fine until exit then everything locks up and I have to hit reset. I'm begining to think rather than battle with emulators, I may as well throw a Mac in the network.

I know Barfly will run on System 7 (and there is an OSX version) and that there are sometimes cheap old Macs on ebay but I haven't a clue beyond that. Hopefully someone here could save me some research and answer what feels to me stupid questions...

Idealy, I think I'd like just a base unit but looking at pictures of older - perhaps ancient Macs, it looks to me as if the monitor is also the housing for the guts - is that right?

If I can just get a base unit, are standard PC mice, keyboards and monitors compatable? I'd need those to set up but I'd rather be operating the machine either by something like vnc or via a switch.

What about networking? Do the older ones sit happily in a tcp/ip netwok?

What could I expect to get for £100 and what sort of rough guide PC equivilant would that be?

Jon

Subject: RE: BS: Obit for the Mac
From: Amos
Date: 02 Jan 05 - 09:39 PM

Jon:

THese things vary dramatically with the year of the machine. Mosat if not all of the PPC and later 68000 Macs had separate monitors. The Classic Macs are the small 128K machines wiht the built-in monitor. They are collector's items.

If you want to represent Mac technology in your network, I'd go for an OSX machine, myself.

Up until just before OSX, the mice and keyboards were attached to an Apple Desktop Bus. On today's Macs they are USB devices. You can also use Firewire keyboards and mice or trackballs.

Don't know the market well enoufgh to advise you on what 100 pounds will do, sorry.

They network easily enough with Wintel TCPIP networks, providing they are set up to do so.

A