BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis

Subject: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 09 Jan 07 - 11:28 PM

We have debated endlessly the number of dead civilians, soldiers and insurgents since the invasion of Iraq. We have also discussed the tragedy of soldiers returning home with medical and mental health issues in abundance. I recently found this article in Reuters which includes a U.N.H.R.C. advisory regarding displaced Iraqis and their needs as refugees.

When you look at the whole picture in terms of a nation, what is really left in Iraq?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 09 Jan 07 - 11:29 PM

Link to the article cited above -

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/UNHCR/f3bb8f70a829833a35b8617c921662d5.htm

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 10 Jan 07 - 02:49 AM

UNHCR Iraq advisory

(Same link as above)

John

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 10 Jan 07 - 02:55 AM

There have been recent commentaries on the number of Iraqi refugees, and the majority of them have expressed dissatisfaction with the welcome they're being given in countries to which they've gone. Thus far though, the comments I've seen have been mostly "you other guys ought to do more."

What's needed would seem to be comment from countries where the refugees are showing up that deals with what those countries are doing about it - in terms of the problems (and opportunities) relative to each country's own capacity for absorbing them.

Anyone seen anything?

John

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 10 Jan 07 - 03:33 AM

Haven't heard much about Iraqi refugees in particular but I did find this from

http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/mena/iraq021203/4.htm

"Unlike most of the other countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Iran is party to the Refugee Convention.76 A government-run census in 2001 revealed that Iran hosted more refugees than any other government in the world..."

I would guess that Iran is straining at the seams by now. Iran has reluctantly shouldered the responsibility for a long time.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 10 Jan 07 - 04:06 AM

Well I suppose any news of improvement must be welcomed - hundreds of thousands now is surely better than the millions that existed under Saddam's rule.

The refugee's sheltering in Iran in that census in 2001 mentioned by dianavan would primarily have been made up of:
- Kurdish refugees fleeing from Saddam Hussein
- Ma'adan Shia (Marsh Arabs) refugees fleeing from Saddam Hussein
- Tajik Afghan refugees fleeing from the Taleban

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 10 Jan 07 - 01:33 PM

From the previous article:

"We noted in the latest advisory that since the previous one in September 2005, the security situation in Iraq has deteriorated. Today's overall security situation is marked by extreme violence in Central Iraq and significant instability in the south of the country."

Yes, teribus, the statistics were from 2001, but at present,

"Of some 40 nationalities seeking asylum in European countries in the first half of 2006, for example, Iraqis ranked first with more than 8,100 applications. And statistics received from 36 industrialised countries for the first half showed a 50 percent increase in Iraqi asylum claims over the same period a year earlier."

Saddam is dead so what are these people now fleeing?

Do you have statistics comparing those seeking asylum from Saddam and those seeking asylum presently?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 11 Jan 07 - 10:42 AM

Is this the sort of thing you requested dianavan?

"Iraq

Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons


Tuesday 22 October 2002


OCTOBER 31, 2002

International Alliance for Justice (AIJ), the International Federation of Human Rights Leagues (FIDH), Fondation France Libertés, and the French Human Rights League organised an international conference on Iraqi refugees and displaced persons on July 4th, 2002, in Paris. The conference minutes are now available in French and in English on the organisations' websites, www.i-a-j.org (Report - AIJ), www.fidh.org, www.france-libertes.fr, www.ldh-france.asso.fr .


For over 30 years, Iraqi people have been forced into exile: according to several sources, approximately three million people, out of a current population of twenty-three million people, have left Iraq. Despite its extent and seriousness, the issue of Iraqi refugees remains little known or forgotten. The conditions of their exile, their survival in appalling material and psychological conditions, are ignored, and silence remains over the causes of this exile. This document provides essential information on this issue.

Several thousands of Iraqi people have died, either drowned in the Aegean Sea or between Indonesia and Australia, killed while crossing borders or summarily executed. Some of Iraq's neighbouring countries have jailed and deported Iraqis, thus exposing them to great risks, while other countries have placed landmines in neighbouring regions. The economic plight imposed on the Iraqis by the restrictions forces most of them to live in appalling conditions. The number of Iraqi asylum seekers in Western countries has kept on increasing, while these countries have been trying to prevent the arrival of migrants on their soil. Several neighbouring countries of Iraq expect a massive arrival of refugees in case of a conflict; they have reinforced the controls at their borders, in order to prevent people from crossing them.

International Alliance for Justice, the International Federation of Human Rights League, Fondation France Libertés, and the French Human Rights League call upon Iraq's neighbouring countries to comply with the international conventions on the right of asylum and to provide the necessary means of survival to the refugees in case of massive arrivals."

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 11 Jan 07 - 08:58 PM

Actually, I was hoping for something a little more current.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 11 Jan 07 - 09:31 PM

Sorry dianavan, I thought that JohnInKansas had provided the current information with the link that he supplied:

"You have seen yesterday's press release on UNHCR's $60 million appeal for the Iraq situation in 2007, focusing on hundreds of thousands of the most vulnerable Iraqis displaced both internally and externally."

You asked for statistics comparing those seeking asylum from Saddam and those seeking asylum presently.

Those who sought asylum, were refugees or were internally displaced during Saddam's time at the helm amounted to 3,000,000 out of a population of 23 million - figures correct as of 2002.

Those who sought asylum, were refugees or were internally displaced subsequent to the fall of Saddam amounts to hundreds of thousands out of a population of 26.8 million - figures correct as of 2007

That any help?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 03:01 AM

Were the people displaced during Saddam's time; before or after he got the chemical and biological warfare from the U.S.?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 08:47 AM

That I don't know dianavan, please tell us when Saddam got the chemical and biological warfare agents and weapons from the US. Any idea of types and quantities? I do take it that your contention is actually based on some hard fact or evidence.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 08:54 AM

Both the American Type Culture Collection and the Centers for Disease Control sold or sent biological samples to Iraq until 1989
These included anthrax, West Nile virus and botulism, as well as Brucella melitensis, which damages major organs, and clostridium perfringens, which causes gas gangrene. Some of these materials were used for Iraq's biological weapons research programme, while others were used for vaccine development.
See the AP story here.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 08:58 AM

oops, sorry: here
One 1986 shipment from the Virginia-based American Type Culture Collection included three strains of anthrax, six strains of the bacteria that make botulinum toxin and three strains of the bacteria that cause gas gangrene.
Iraq later admitted to the United Nations that it had made weapons out of all three.
etc etc...

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: GUEST
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 09:09 AM

Armed Sunni Arabs are urged to go to Baghdad, to fight the decisive battle to keep Baghdad Sunni. That battle has already been lost, but the noise level on the Sunni side has reached epic levels because the Shia death squads are now invading solidly Sunni neighborhoods. There are no more safe havens for Sunnis in Baghdad. The men of Anbar (the Sunni heartland west of Baghdad) are being called in to save Baghdad. That has led to some spectacular street battles in the last few days. But all of these have ended with a lot of dead Sunnis. The Battle of Baghdad has been lost, but the fighting will go on for a while. The Sunni Arabs are dead-men-walking, and more of them will have to be put in the ground before the majority admit they are beat.

What the United States is trying to avoid is a massacre of the Sunni Arabs. The new military operation will disarm many of the Sunni Arabs who guard Sunni Arab neighborhoods. Unless the Shia militias, and their death squads are also crippled, the Shia will kill and terrorize Sunni Arabs on a large scale. The mass media loves that sort of thing, but Western politicians back home don't. No one wants another Bosnia or Rwanda.

About half the Sunni Arabs of Iraq have been driven from their homes so far. Some 60 percent of those have left the country, while the others have taken refuge in areas where Sunni Arabs are the majority. There are far fewer "mixed" (Sunni and Shia) neighborhoods in Iraq today, and there will be a lot fewer in the future. In 2006 alone, about ten percent of the Sunni Arab population was driven from their homes, and either left the country or settled elsewhere in Iraq.

Each month, 50-100,000 Iraqis, mostly Sunni Arabs, leave the country. There are nearly a million Iraqi refugees in Syria, about 700,000 in Jordan, nearly 100,000 in Egypt, about 40,000 in Lebanon, and about 20,000 in Turkey. Over a hundred thousand have fled further still, to Europe and the Americas. The U.S. is trying to keep Sunni Arab refugees out, as it is believed many of them would be inclined to support Sunni Arab terrorist groups like al Qaeda, and seek revenge against the United States.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 09:48 AM

Iran/Iraq War 1980 to 1988 - first use of chemical weapons by Iraq is 1982, deployment and use of Mustard Gas to break up Iranian "human wave" attacks was common throughout 1983.

The famous/infamous "Rumsfeld handshake" occured in December of 1983. Prior to that there had been no contacts between the Governments of Iraq and the United States of America since 1967. The Rumsfeld meeting was an initial meeting designed to sound things out. Diplomatic relations between Iraq and the United States of America were not re-established until November 1984, by which time the Iran/Iraq War was four years old and both sides had been using, or allegedly been using Chemical weapons for two years.

Simple question, where did THOSE weapons, the ones in use from 1982 come from? Any views on any of this dianavan?

It is known beyond doubt that Iraq had chemical weapons and used them during the Iran/Iraq War, whereas it has only ever been alleged that Iran used them, no positive proof exists.

Iraq bought almost eighty percent of it weapons from Russia and China. During the "Cold War" era the USSR, Warsaw Pact countries and China built up, developed and maintained a Chemical and Biological Weapons capability.

Iran up until 1979 bought it's weapons from the United States of America. During the "Cold War" era the USA and the other NATO nations abandoned Chemical and Biological Weapons (early 1950's) and developed tactical nuclear weapons to counter the threat of the Soviet and Warsaw pack Chemical and Biological arsenal.

Now could that possibly explain why Iraq definitely did use Chemical Weapons - It got them from Russia. While only unproven allegations can be levelled against Iran because their weapons supplier did not have any of those weapons.

Early in the war the USA did supply Iran with military hardware, but later in the war Iran turned increasingly towards alternative suppliers - Soviet Russia and China. As far as the Iraqi's were concerned this introduced the possibilty that Iran could be supplied with the more formidable Biological weapons in the USSR's inventory.

Here is where the 1986 "shipments" from Centres for Disease Control come into the picture. This massive amount of material was supplied by the US Department of Health and carried to Iraq by a single Iraqi scientist as cabin luggage on a commercial flight. Now to cultivate, grow and multiply the strains supplied would be no problem to the Iraqi's. But where did the weapons come from, they did not exist in the US's arsenal, weaponising a chemical or biological agent is a very difficult thing to do. Where and when was it done - most certainly not by the US - Can you shed any light on this aspect of things dianavan? You did after all state with what appeared to be absolute certainty that - "he got the chemical and biological warfare from the U.S."

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 10:58 AM

One piece of hand luggage, Terry? May we have a ciitation please!

The arming of Iraq during the Iran Iraq was was a magnificent team effort by a lot of members of Nato and our Cold War allies. Russia had bugger all to do with it.
It was a team effort that continued right up to the Gulf War, with the USA providing dual use products to the value of $500 million dollars.

Karl Kobe and Water Engineering Trading, who built the infrastructure for Saddam's chemical weapons manufacture, are German companies. More than 50 per cent of Iraqs chemical weapons plant before the 1991 Gulf War was of German manufacture, while the Germans also provided the precursors to mustard gas, sarin, tabun, and tear gas.
Of the Iraqi's remaining chemical weapons capacity, 21 per cent was French.

And the Falluja 2 chlorine plant was built with British taxpayers' money given by the Thatcher government to a British subsidiary of the German Uhde engineery company. It cost £14 million - and I'm sure you were proud that your tax as a matelot went towards that.

The Dutch gave 4,261 tons of precursors for sarin, tabun, mustard, and tear gasses to Iraq. Egypt gave 2,400 tons of tabun and sarin precursors to Iraq and 28,500 tons of weapons designed for carrying chemical munitions. India gave 2,343 tons of precursors to VX, tabun, Sarin, and mustard gasses. Luxembourg gave Iraq 650 tons of mustard gas precursors. Spain gave Iraq 57,500 munitions designed for carrying chemical weapons. In addition, they provided reactors, condensers, columns and tanks for Iraq's chemical warfare programme.

Do try to keep on the ball, Terry.

Oh, and the possessive form of the impersonal pronoun 'it' does not take an apostrophe. It's 'its', not 'it's'.

And, er, any news on the firing squads yet, old fruit?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 11:10 AM

...and if you're looking for a citation, try this,
To clarify:

Those US shipments with known end users in Iraq:
In 1985, the CDC sent three shipments of West Nile Fever virus to Salman Pak in Iraq
In 1985, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) sent a shipment of West Nile Fever virus to an Iraqi researcher at Basra University.
Between 1985-89, ATCC made 17 shipments of "attenuated strains of various toxins and bacteria" to Iraq's Atomic Energy Commission
And then there are the shipments where we don't know the end user in Iraq:
Between 1985-89, US firms exported Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), Clostridium botulinum, Histoplasma capsulatam, Brucella melitensis, Clostridium perfringens (gas gangrene), Clostridium tetani (tentanus), Escherichia coli, and "dozens of other pathogenic biological agents," to Iraq.
Between 1985-89, the US firm ATCC sent Iraq up to 70 shipments including 21 strains of anthrax, 15 Class III pathogens, E. coli, Salmonella cholerasuis, Clostridium botulinum, Brucella meliteusis, and Clostidium perfringens.
Between 1984-89, the CDC sent Iraq more than 80 agents, including botulinum toxoid, Yersinia pestis, dengue virus, and West Nile antigen and antibody.

That one chap on a commercial flight with his piece of hand baggage must have been worn out, ducky!

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 12:29 PM

What exactly was the "Iran Iraq was was" Carrots?

How many Iraqs are there? Or should that be how many Iraqs is there?

Now the "arming" of Iraq? Iraq is "armed" by companies selling Iraq industrial equipment designed to make pesticide? Iraq is "armed" by companies selling Iraq precursors?

Tell us what precursors are Carrots, tell us all the uses that they can be put to.

Confirm to us all on this forum that "precursors" in their own right are not weapons.

Confirm to us that two or more precursor elements have to undergo specific chemical processes in order that they can then be further processed to make a chemical warfare agent.

Confirm to us all on this forum that that chemical warfare agent then has to be weaponised.

Further confirm to us all on this forum that you then have to have special munitions and specialist armourers to fill those munitions - then you are "armed".

Sounds like being "armed" is rather a long way away from the simple "precursor" stage - Doesn't it Carrots?

By the bye Carrots - the filling of chemical munitions, the "arming" of them - that was the 45 minutes referred to in the so called "Dodgy Dossier". Anyone who had attended "Threat" Lectures throughout the "Cold War" could tell you that.

On "arming" Iraq, here are their suppliers of all weapons supplied to Iraq between the years 1973 and 1990 Carrots:

Russia - 68.9%
France - 12.7%
China - 11.8%
Others - 4.8%
Egypt - 1.3%
USA - 0.5%

Now what was it that you said again:

"The arming of Iraq during the Iran Iraq was was a magnificent team effort by a lot of members of Nato and our Cold War allies. Russia had bugger all to do with it." The percentages above don't quite reflect that do they Carrots? Russia having supplied 68.9% of all weapons to Iraq in the period 1973 to 1990 had "bugger all to do with it". Just exactly what twisted logic can be applied to arrive at that conclusion. The period given is 1973 to 1990, the Iran/Iraq War was fought between 1980 and 1988 and the "arming" of Iraq during that conflict is down to NATO and our Cold War Allies??? Preposterous.

Impressive information from your link Carrots, note that none predate 1984 - the war has been raging for four years and chemical weapons have been used for two - Once again I ask the question who supplied those weapons? The USA, NATO did not possess them, the Russians, Warsaw Pact and China did. Just making the stuff, does not make it a weapon. That requires skill and expertise that the USA and NATO did not have, but the USSR, Warsaw Pact and China did.

Oh, Carrots, who was it that provided Egypt with all its military hardware in the "good old days"? Where do you think those 28,500 tons of weapons designed for carrying chemical munitions originally came from? Why would Egypt be willing to part with them? It wouldn't have anything to do with Egypt's realignment towards the USA after their historic bi-lateral peace agreement with Israel would it? The 28,500 tons of weapons designed for carrying chemical munitions couldn't possibly be old stuff delivered to Egypt by the Soviet Union? Now no longer of any use to the Egyptians because they no longer get their arms from Russia? Shells and mortar rounds of the wrong calibre, bombs with the wrong release fittings, you know Carrots, that sort of thing. Kinda like after you've bought a new cell phone the old charger is of no use to you, you might as well throw it away, but much better if you can sell it on to someone.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 01:06 PM

Terry, my dear, you're starting to lose coherence. Have a cup of tea and sit down, there's a love.

I should have been more precise. I should have said Chemical and Biological weapons. The ones that all the fuss was about. Tanks, armoured cars, guns, planes, phooey - we've all got those, poppet; it was the NBC stuff that had us all of a tizzy.
And we were in a hissyfit about the stuff that was supplied in the eighties and nineties which we thought was going to be used against us. What is the relevance of 1973, poppet? The first use of chemical weapons was actually around 1980. The first use against Iraqis (which would presumably influence migration) was 1988. That's at least three years after your little friend with his attache case started making that one trip between the US and Iraq. Are you saying that because Saddam got hold of some nasties from the Warsaw Pact, that made it OK for us to go on supplying him with nasties?
The Spanish munitions - more than 50,000 of them? Were they Russian?

As an aside, it's funny how the US thought the possession of precursors and the refinemment of such chemicals and cultures were deemed to be grounds for concern. Remember the fuss about yellowcake? If only silly, scared little Colin Powell had been as sanguine as you, why, we wouldn't have had to go through all this palaver.

Interesting that you bring up the 45 minute claim in the dodgy dossier. Iraq: Its Infrastructure of Concealment, Deception and Intimidation was wrong then and it's wrong now.The select committee has said the 45 minute claim was given 'undue prominence', Dearlove has since said that it was intended to refer to battlefield munitions, and even they have been found not to exist. Full stop.
Or are you now claiming that the dodgy dossier is somehow now entirely credible?

As for the skill and expertise that Nato did not have; I'm glad to learn that Porton Down was using Pepsi-Cola then. And that tear-gas canisters and CS rounds were filled with horseradish. And the gas chambers used for NBC training, they were filled with butterflies' farts, of course. All that stuff was made in the UK. It's the same skill and expertise, lovey. But that's a digression...

So stop spluttering, sit down and take a deep breath (but not in the gas chamber!), my little matelot.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 01:49 PM

teribus - You keep throwing out the percentage of arms supplied to Iraq but, of course, thats probably conventional weaponry. You don't think that biological or chemical capabilities were included in that figure do you?

As far as proving the U.S. as a supplier - Saddam's death has guaranteed that we will never know the details of the 'gassing of the Kurds'.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Arne
Date: 12 Jan 07 - 04:38 PM

Teribus:

On "arming" Iraq, here are their suppliers of all weapons supplied to Iraq between the years 1973 and 1990 Carrots:

Russia - 68.9%
France - 12.7%
China - 11.8%
Others - 4.8%
Egypt - 1.3%
USA - 0.5%


Here ya go.

Cheers,

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 05:48 AM

Long article Arne, that says very little - there again anything from The Green Left online would only ever give a completely unbiased account. It provides a catelogue of inferrences, no real data, like Carrots it seems to weigh in heavy on dual use items, that in themselves are perfectly harmless and all of which have perfectly legitimate civilian applications.

The statistics I have posted are sourced from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), whose impartiallity I would not dispute. It does cover ALL weapons dianavan sold to Iraq during the stated period (i.e. it covers the period of the Iran/Iraq War, or "was was", as Carrots likes to call it)

Don't you know what is meant by a "precursor" then Carrots? Can't you enlighten the people.

I see from you last post that you still haven't been able to come with any sort of reasoned counter arguement to dispute anything that I have said.

And the facts still reamin in answer to dianavan's question:

Those who sought asylum, were refugees or were internally displaced during Saddam's time at the helm amounted to 3,000,000 out of a population of 23 million - figures correct as of 2002.

Those who sought asylum, were refugees or were internally displaced subsequent to the fall of Saddam amounts to hundreds of thousands out of a population of 26.8 million - figures correct as of 2007

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 09:18 AM

If we accept your figures that 3 million Iraqis were displaced internally, sought asylum, or were refugees during Saddam's rule--the 30 year period to which you refer--that amounts to 300,000 per year. Obviously there were times that more of this took place than at other times, but that would obviously be the average.

If you don't think that since that wonderful day in 2003 of "Mission Accomplished" more than 300,000 Iraqis per year have been refugees, sought asylum, or were displaced internally--especially the last--, you need to do some more reading. What's more, the trend is, if anything, increasing--as "unofficial ethnic cleansing" proceeds apace.

Take off your rose-colored glasses and start using your head.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 09:19 AM

Obviously, my post is for Teribus' benefit.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 09:24 AM

Actually that's 100,000 per year. Makes my point even stronger.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 01:15 PM

Terry, just one 'l' in impartiality, OK?
A precursor is a chemical or culture which is required to make a compound. For example, if you are making crack cocaine, sodium hydroxide is a precursor.
However, I've used the term in a far more specific sense - cultures of botulinum, anthrax and the like are directly relevant to the production of bioweapons.
and as for the reast of your argument, I'm afraid I can't actually see one - all I see is a rant, old fruit.
Please try to calm down. Do you disagree with my figures on the amount of materiel provided by the USA, its Nato allies and other similary alilgned states, by the way?
And are you still absolutely sure that all the chemical and biological precursors were shipped out by one little fellow in his hand luggage on one commercial flight?
Care to admit you were wrong, pumpkin?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ebbie
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 02:12 PM

Wrong? Wrong? I'll have you know that Teribus is NEVER wrong. splutter splutter

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 13 Jan 07 - 03:12 PM

Oops!Aligned. Careless Carrots!

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 14 Jan 07 - 12:08 PM

Not my figures Ron, they are the UNHCR's.

And averaging bears no relevance during Saddam's time 3 million out of a population of 23 million, i.e. 13% of the total population. Post Saddam lets call it 900,000 (hundreds of thousands) out of a population of 26.8 million, i.e. 3.36% of the total population.

Sort of indicates that as far as the Iraqi's who voted with their feet were concerned, Saddam's Iraq was perceived as being a damn sight more of an undesirable place to be than the post-Saddam Iraq of today.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: dianavan
Date: 14 Jan 07 - 01:04 PM

23 million displaced during the thirty year period of Saddam's reign.

900,000 displaced since 2003.

Lets see, if the U.S. remains in Iraq for another 26 years...

Thanks, Ron.

Teribus will still argue that Iraqis are better-off now.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 14 Jan 07 - 07:19 PM

Teribus--your statistical games are more feeble than ever. Congratulations. As Dianavan points out, both the recent record, and the trend, do not, shall we say, support you.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Donuel
Date: 14 Jan 07 - 07:46 PM

quibble over nimbers and miss the point.

The visas given Iraqi's were secretly coded with an S some weeks ago. This now denies an Iraqi from coming to the United States for any purpose. This coincided with a Bush initiative to encourage Iraqi's to do business with and in the United States.

There is currently no legal number of Iraqi's that are allowed to immigrate or even visit the US.

Like the Bush before this Bush, we will do nothing to protect those who turned toward the US when we invade but instead of just selling out the Kurds we have sold out every last man woman and child.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 14 Jan 07 - 11:06 PM

Ron and dianavan actually read what was written

As of 2002 (i.e. Saddam still in power) 3 million people out of a population of 23 million were displaced.

As of 2007 (post Saddam) hundreds of thousands of people out of a population of 26.8 million are displaced.

It has got absolutely nothing to do with averages.

Oh Ron, the minute the Sunni ARAB population stop supporting the insurrection the situation will get markedly better. The Saddam supporters and foreign jihadi's having singularly failed to take on the MNF and then switched strategy to attack the much softer target (Sunni Arab) population in order to try to provoke a "civil war" in Iraq. Up to present they have also failed in this venture, but Shia militia's have taken steps to defend their section of the population against Sunni attacks. Also note Ron this is not generally a Sunni/Shia conflict, the Sunni and Shia Kurds are co-existing without any problems. The Sunni Arabs however know that to tip the balance against the Iraqi Government and the MNF they have to provoke attacks on Shia Arabs to draw an over-reaction from the Shia Arab militias and their main backers - Iran.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:04 AM

Teribus--


1) You have, as usual, NO proof that the majority of Sunnis support the "insurgency". Your ideological blinders/ stubbornness-- (that you can't admit you have, yet again, lashed yourself to a sinking ship--shades of "I still say there was no propaganda campaign to get the US public behind the plannned Iraq invasion!", as your ship sank beneath the waves---causes you to deny (still) that the majority of Sunnis want the same thing as Shiites. Running water, electricity, jobs, etc.--and PEACE.

Yet again, the single most important step which needs to be taken in Iraq is the purging of the Shiite militias from the police. And I'm still waiting for you to tell us how long you would accept the situation if your own police targeted you on the basis of being Catholic, Protestant, English, Scots, Welsh, Irish, or whatever you happen to be---without regard to what you yourself had personally done. Can't understand why this question keeps slipping your mind--since it's precisely analogous to the situation law-abiding Sunnis now face in Iraq.

2) Your citing of "Kurdistan" is, as usual with your arguments, a red herring. Even "Kurdistan" is not a perfect model--there still is some violence there--and opposition to the current "Kurdistan" rulers especially by the Turkmen population. The fact that the same civil war is not going on there has much to do with the fact that the US and UK massively supported and protected the Kurds--including the Kurdish economy-- after the first Gulf war.   This was in stark contrast to the criminally stupid decisions made by the Bush regime directly after toppling Saddam--dismantling the state-run companies which still functioned after Saddam's fall, purging all Baathists--not just the top layer---and dismantling the Iraqi army, resulting in huge numbers of unemployed soldiers--a large percentage Sunni. All the Bush regime would have had to do was read a bit of history--specifically the contrast between how the Alllies treated Germany after World War I--with how they treated Germany after World War II. Ever heard of something called the Marshall Plan?

You might want to also note the current stories--all over the reputable media--about how the Bush regime, now desperate for jobs for Iraqis, is now feverishly trying to get back in operation the same state-run factories it dismantled after the fall of Saddam. All of a sudden the worship of the "free market" takes second place to other factors.

As usual, you need to do a bit more reading--and perhaps start to think.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:14 AM

Teribus-

And you also cannot deny that the both the trend and the recent record are against your pathetic statistical game---as far as displacement of Iraqis is concerned. Or would you like to assert that "ethnic cleansing" of regions--and even of neighborhoods--is not now proceeding apace in Iraq?

I still have a good deal on that bridge I had for you last year.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:28 AM

Trouble is, Ron, young Terry is a slippery fish. Confront him with an egregious error and he'll just skip off somewhere else and fling up another pile of cut-and-paste piffle. I'm still waiting for several answers from the fellow, but I'll not hold my breath.
Just watch him bounce up on another thread and deluge it with irrelevant pastings. If nothing else, you have to admire his tenacity; quite the little terrier is our Terry.
I'm suprised some neo-con pressure group hasn't had the heart to offer him a job digging out the stats and shaping them for a rebuttal unit. If nothing else it would get the poor boy off the forecourt and away from the gas pumps for the winter.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:34 AM

Surely the neo-cons can find somebody with more than a passing acquaintance with logic-- a contrast to our dear Teribus. He doesn't help his cause.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:42 AM

Ron,

Go back to that other thread and READ that article in the Guardian, don't just cherry-pick the odd line that suits your arguement. IF true the Arab Sunni's are coming to realise that their backing for the insurgency and the foreign Jihadists is leading them nowhere and instead of offering them any form of protection it is actually putting them at risk.

By the bye Ron - Kurdistan - Austrian Airlines will shortly be running holiday charters into the Kurdish part of Iraq. It has been over two years since any bomb went off there. In Iraq the only trouble between Shia and Sunni's is confined to the Arabs, mainly for the reasons I have given. There was little or no post-war sectarian violence UNTIL the Sunni Arab insurrectionists and the foreign Jihadists lost their appetite for taking on troops of the MNF directly and started attacking Shia Arabs.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:49 AM

Sorry Teribus (no pun intended--perish the thought.)----- It is a perfectly reasonable observation that the Sunnis and Shiites are now doing the same routine--killing, then selling the victim's house and car. And eventually even you will have to come to grips with the fact that the situation NOW in Iraq is much closer to civil war than to a attempt to topple the current government.

And, with the patience of Job, I'm still waiting for you to tell us how long you would put up with the situation if your own police were targeting you for what you are--ethnic, religous or national group-- rather than anything you had personally done.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:57 AM

Teribus--



Also, have you ever heard of the Turkmen group, and do you have any inkling of their views on the Kirkuk region?

There is still a lot of hesitation by Western business to investing in "Kurdistan"-except in oil. Do you deny that the different treatment by the US and UK of "Kurdistan" and the rest of "Iraq" has a lot to do with the relative prosperity of "Kurdistan?"

Have you ever heard of the Marshall Plan?

And do you think the Bush regime's handling of postwar Iraq planning was just hunky-dory?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:59 AM

"religious"

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 10:31 AM

Yes Ron, perfectly reasonable observation as are the following observations from the same article that indicate that there may be a major shift in attitude of the Sunni Arabs of Baghdad and Anbar provinces in the offing, such as:
- turning on the foreign jihadists
- volunteering for enlistment in the police force and army

Both of which as you know, I have been advocating for months.

The Sunni Arabs of the "Triangle", now know that Saddam and the Ba'athists will never return. As a minority sect within the country as a whole there was never, ever going to be a return to "their" good old days, after Saddam was driven from power and elections were held, the rest of the population of Iraq would simply not permit it.

They (the Sunni Arabs) are coming to realise, that despite their best efforts they are NOT going to succeed in fomenting a "Civil War" in Iraq. Al-Sistani and Al-Sadr are far too clever to be goaded into that, despite the most outrageous acts of provocation. What is happening at present suits Al-Sadr and the Arab Shia down to the ground. As far as the Sunni Arab initiated sectarian violence goes, if continued, in terms of numbers, it must follow the law of diminishing returns. The Sunni Arabs are beginning to realise that all the Shia Arabs have to do is sit back and wait. With no change, with no active engagement in the political arena on the part of the Sunni Arabs, the sectarian violence will continue, more Sunni's will die, or be driven from the country, all losses the Sunni Arab community can ill afford. They (the Sunni Arabs) will get weaker and weaker until they become so insignificant that they can exert no power politically and can be ignored.

Sort of like the Jacobites in the Scotland of the late 1700's.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 10:52 AM

Teribus--


Among ridiculously many obvious objections to your absurd oversimplification of the Iraq situation--al Sadr and Sistani do not have complete control over their ostensible subordinates and followers. Nor are the Sunnis a unified force. The fact that no specific individuals can enforce any "agreement"--and that the current civil war--so sorry--that's what it is-- is devolving more and more into a series of revenge killings--is what is creating the chaos in Iraq.

The absolute FIRST step has to be insuring that all Iraqis can trust the police--which Sunnis can emphatically not do now.

Now how about the question of how long you would tolerate your own police force targeting
you--for nothing you had personally done?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 11:00 AM

Teribus--

And I'd still like to hear if you think the Bush regime's postwar conduct (after the fall of Saddam) was just peachy. If you do think so, be prepared to defend your statement--particularly addressing the points I brought up which tend to question the Bush "team's" judgment--(and abysmal ignorance of history).

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 11:17 AM

You have got a nerve to talk about oversimplification haven't you Ron:

"Now how about the question of how long you would tolerate your own police force targeting you--for nothing you had personally done?"

Do you really believe that that has been the case in Iraq Ron? I would say that it's a damn sight more complicated than that. As an innocent Sunni Arab bystander, I would say that the reaction of the Shia dominated police and security forces has got something to do with the activities of certain factions within my own Sunni community, who have been operating with the encouragement and consent of my local civic, tribal and religious leaders. I would have worked out that had those Sunni backed factions not attacked innocent Shia Arabs, the sectarian violence now flaring in Baghdad and Anbar provinces would never have started.

Tell us who initiated attacks against the Shia Arab majority Ron?

As to lack of control exercised by the likes of Al-Sistani and Al-Sadr. Since Najaf how many incidents has there been in which Shia Arab militias have attacked US MNF troops? Al-Sistani and Al-Sadr wield enormous influence, do not underestimate, or ignore that fact. Concerning an Iranian individual cast very much in the same mould, the Shah of Persia once did and lived to regret it.

Down in Basra, British Forces are cleansing the police of Al-Sadr's embedded militia death squads, with the help and support of Shia Arabs loyal to Al-Sistani, who generally opt for a much more conciliatory line between Sunni and Shia.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 01:02 PM

1) You STILL have not answered the question of how long, as an innocent Sunni, you would stand being targeted by your own police. If you don't think this occurs, you need to do more reading.

2) You are wrong on influence. In fact, we hear little from Sistani these days--reason being that he is aware that if he makes pronouncements which are ignored, his influence will further decline. Sorry to say, the Sadr "army" is not the Royal Navy. To understand anything about the Iraq situation you will have to wrench yourself out of your West European military mindset. I know it will be a struggle--but please try.

3) Please don't give me garbage of all the UK forces are now doing in Iraq, and imply that will continue forever. Is the UK winding down its Iraq commitment or not? What are the views of Mr. Brown and Mr Cameron on this? I'm sorry to tell you that Mr. Blair's views don't matter much any more.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 01:06 PM

Teribus--


And you still haven't told us how wonderful you think the Bush regime's post-war (after the fall of Saddam) conduct was--particularly addressing the issues I raised.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 01:16 PM

I'm sorry I used the term "garbage" in connection with the UK forces' accomplishments in Iraq. The accomplishments are obviously real--but not likely to continue.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 03:13 PM

Uh, Teribus--you were saying that no bombs have gone off in the Kurdish area of Iraq for 2 years? Just for an example, how about the report TODAY that a bomb has gone off and killed at least 6 in the Mosul area?--just outside a Kurdish political office, as I recall. Nobody is happy about it--but to have any credibility at all, you really should read the news once in a while.

Just a suggestion.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 03:17 PM

Source--CNN wire-- 15 Jan 2006

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Arne
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 03:45 PM

Teribus:

Long article Arne, that says very little - there again anything from The Green Left online would only ever give a completely unbiased account. It provides a catelogue of inferrences, no real data, like Carrots it seems to weigh in heavy on dual use items, that in themselves are perfectly harmless and all of which have perfectly legitimate civilian applications.

It cites U.S. Senate reports. You can look 'em up, you know....

Cheers,

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Arne
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 03:47 PM

Guess I should also point out that the article mentions the use of proxies for indirect arming of Iraq.....

Cheers,

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 05:26 PM

dual use items, that in themselves are perfectly harmless and all of which have perfectly legitimate civilian applications.
Doh - silly me. Of course, the botulinum strains that were being sought by the Iraqis were actually intended for botox injections. Ten years before the fashionistas of Manhattan and Chelsea were numbing their faces with odd injections, the Iraqis were perfecting the technique. That's why Saddam looked so expressionless in the dock - he'd been Botoxed!
Anthrax, too, I'm sure has a legitimate use. Do remind me what it is, Terry dear.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Teribus
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 06:32 PM

Mosul:

"Mosul did not fall within the Kurdish-ruled area, but it was included in the no-fly zones imposed and patrolled by the United States and Britain between 1991 and 2003.Although, this prevented Saddam's forces from mounting large-scale military operations again in the region, it did not stop the regime from implementing a steady policy of "Arabisation" by which the demography of some areas of Ninawa Governorate were gradually changed."

That the place you are talking about Ron? Another place where your favourite Sunni Arabs carry on their Jihad against their fellow Iraqi citizens?

As an innocent Sunni Arab bystander, I think that long ago, I would have told my civic, tribal and religious leaders to take a hike along with the Nazi Ba'athists, Sunni Salafists and foreign Jihadists in order that they could go and protect somebody else.

The Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani, the most senior and revered Shiite cleric in Iraq. Nobody heard that much about him before either Ron, but that completely belies his power and influence. Al-Sadr had to wait until Al-Sistani was out of Najaf to mount his abortive attack on MNF troops a couple of years back. Al-Sistani returned and Al-Sadr was told in no uncertain terms to rein in the Mahdi Army and keep it under control, Al-Sadr complied. He was quietly influential enough to assist in charting the path to Interim Government, the drafting of the constitution and eventually in the Government elections. Do not dismiss him or his influence so lightly - Al-Sadr certainly doesn't.

Carrots what does CDC in the US use botulinum strains for? What weapons does CDC provide the US Military with? Simple questions Carrots especially for someone who is trying to tell the world and its dog that the US armed the Iraqi Government of Saddam Hussein with Chemical & Biological Weapons. You seem to think that you have unearthed the US source of these weapons, now tell us what weapons they produce.

Arne it can cite whatever it wants, there was very little real data in that article and the bulk of it referred to dual use items.

Oh and finally Ron, UK Force draw down in Iraq, IF things go according to plan there will shortly be more British Forces in Afghanistan than in Iraq, I would guess an establishment of around 3,300 to 3,500 by mid-summer this year, and they will be employed in training roles.

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 15 Jan 07 - 07:11 PM

Sorry Teribus--the explosion took place outside a Kurdish political office. All is not hunky-dory in Kurdish areas--and Western firms are aware of this--and, aside from oil firms, taking a wait-and-see attitude. It will be interesting to find out who was responsible for the bombing.

By the way, what about the Turkmen--and their views on the Kirkuk region? Do you have any inkling of their significance? If not you should do a bit of research.

No surprise that "Kurdistan" is pushing tourism. I hope it remains safe for tourists. Let me know if you decide to visit "Kurdistan" soon.


You still haven't learned that Iraq is not the Royal Navy. The "command and control" situation you envision is just that--in your mind. You can tell all your religious and political leaders to "take a hike" and that may well not prevent a disgruntled neighbor from seeing an opportunity to get at you--or your possessions. It's charming how you so naively cling to the "insurgency" terminology.

Civil wars are real messy--and that's what we're seeing.

Good to see you admit the UK is drawing down its troops in Iraq. Tell me, if things don't go swimmingly, do you think Mr. Brown or Mr Cameron would halt the withdrawals of UK troops. Yes or no?

Sistani--the examples you cite of his influence end with the elections-- a year ago December. As I said, recently he has not been making pronouncements--for the reason I cited.

As usual, you have proven nothing.

And, by the way, what about my question as to whether, as a law-abiding Sunni with a police force you could not trust, you would give up your weapons? Yes or no?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Captain Ginger
Date: 16 Jan 07 - 03:19 AM

Terry, the US uses the botulinum strain for the manufacture of vaccines against the pathogen, and also for the manufacture of Botox. Just as the UK does.
However, in the Eighties it would seem unlikely that Iraq's primary interest would be making vaccines as Iran was not using biological agents, and I'm not aware of a booming cosmetic surgery sector in pre-Gulf war Iraq. Such vaccines as it required would be for staff and soldiers weaponising the stuff. The primary use was offensive. Iraq may have said it had a legitimate clinical use for the shipments, but as Jonathan Tucker, a former U.N. biological weapons inspector, says, such an excuse "was naive to believe, even at the time."

For your information, a handy little cut-out-and-keep guide to some of the US supplies of biological agents to Iraq:
Botulinum - ATCC sent six strains of Clostridium botulinum to the University of Baghdad in May 1986 shipment. In September 1988 another ATCC shipment to Iraq also contained one strain of Clostridium botulinum. In March 1986, the CDC sent samples of botulinum toxin and botulinum toxiod (used to make a vaccine against botulinum poisoning) directly to Iraq's al-Muthanna complex, a centre for Iraq's chemical weapons program and the site where Iraq restarted its dormant biological weapons program in 1985. There Iraq admitted making 5,300 gallons of botulinum toxin.
Anthrax - ATCC sent two shipments of anthrax to Iraq in the 1980s. Three anthrax strains were in a May 1986 shipment sent to the University of Baghdad, which U.N. inspectors later linked to Iraq's biological weapons program. A 1988 shipment from ATCC to Iraq also included four anthrax strains. Iraq later admitted preparing 2,200 gallons of anthrax spores.
Gas gangrene - ATCC sent three strains of Clostridium perfringens to the University of Baghdad in the May 1986 shipment and another three strains in the 1988 shipment. U.N. inspectors concluded Iraq could have produced hundreds of gallons of the germs that cause gas gangrene, though Iraq admitted producing just a fraction of that amount.

It's fascinating that you were one of the hawks who declared that we should heed the dodgy dossier as proof of Saddam's ill intent, and yet it seems you are now trying to persuade us that the shipments of biological materiel from the US were put to entirely peaceful purposes!
Do make your mind up, poppet! Or, at the very least, stop being naive.

By the way, is all this from the single shipment that was carried in one piece of hand-luggage of one chap on one commercial flight, as you insisted was the case? Do enlighten us, there's a love.

And any news on the firing squads yet?

Subject: RE: BS: 100's of thousands displaced Iraqis
From: Ron Davies
Date: 17 Jan 07 - 12:04 AM

Well, Teribus must have been shipped out to Iraq to solve their logistical oil problems. We'll never get answers to our questions--how sad.