BS: Use for the U.N.

Subject: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: beardedbruce
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 11:27 AM

U.N. urged to take action on asteroid threat
POSTED: 10:13 a.m. EST, February 19, 2007
Story Highlights• U.N. asked to organize an asteroid deflection mission
• Asteroid Apophis has a 1 in 45,000 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2036
• Mission proposal: A spacecraft would use gravity to alter the asteroid's course


SAN FRANCISCO, California (Reuters) -- An asteroid may come uncomfortably close to Earth in 2036 and the United Nations should assume responsibility for a space mission to deflect it, a group of astronauts, engineers and scientists said on Saturday.

Astronomers are monitoring an asteroid named Apophis, which has a 1 in 45,000 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2036.

Although the odds of an impact by this particular asteroid are low, a recent congressional mandate for NASA to upgrade its tracking of near-Earth asteroids is expected to uncover hundreds, if not thousands of threatening space rocks in the near future, former astronaut Rusty Schweickart said.

"It's not just Apophis we're looking at. Every country is at risk. We need a set of general principles to deal with this issue," Schweickart, a member of the Apollo 9 crew that orbited the earth in March 1969, told an American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in San Francisco.

Schweickart plans to present an update next week to the U.N. Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space on plans to develop a blueprint for a global response to an asteroid threat.

The Association of Space Explorers, a group of former astronauts and cosmonauts, intends to host a series of high-level workshops this year to flesh out the plan and will make a formal proposal to the U.N. in 2009, he said.

Schweickart wants to see the United Nations adopt procedures for assessing asteroid threats and deciding if and when to take action.

The favored approach to dealing with a potentially deadly space rock is to dispatch a spacecraft that would use gravity to alter the asteroid's course so it no longer threatens Earth, said astronaut Ed Lu, a veteran of the international space station.

The so-called Gravity Tractor could maintain a position near the threatening asteroid, exerting a gentle tug that, over time, would deflect the asteroid.

An asteroid the size of Apophis, which is about 460 feet long, would take about 12 days of gravity-tugging, Lu added.

Mission costs are estimated at $300 million.

Launching an asteroid deflection mission early would reduce the amount of energy needed to alter its course and increase the chances of a successful outcome, Schweickart said.

NASA says the precise effect of a 460-foot object hitting the Earth would depend on what the asteroid was made of and the angle of impact.

Paul Slovic, president of Oregon-based Decision Research, which studies judgment, decision-making and risk analysis, said the asteroid could take out an entire city or region.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Peace
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 11:41 AM

Give or take a few million, that would be approximately 1,381,930,864 TONS of what I call rock striking the planet at about 11 miles per SECOND.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Wesley S
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 11:57 AM

Can't we just send Bruce Willis?

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Wolfgang
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 12:41 PM

If it was just for Apophis I'd recommend doing nothing. A tiny chance of a hit getting smaller each month with new measurements The effect would be devastating to a thousand square km region (or, with a sea impact, to coastal areas many thousand miles away) but with no long term global effects (not even cooling the global warming).

But in general it is worth trying methods to deflect asteroids, and why not start learning how to do it with Apophis. I'm looking forward to its 2029 flyby when it will be visible to the naked eye. It will come closer than some satellite orbits and will have less than 1/10 of the distance of the moon.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Bill D
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 01:14 PM

As Wolfgang says, we need to learn as much as possible about doing this. It is inevitable that someday, we will be in the path of a dangerous asteroid, as we have been in the past. Fortunately, we now have technology to do the tracking and, possibly, to actually do the moving/deflecting.

   I hope the various countries which can approach this problem will cooperate for the benefit of the world at large.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Amos
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 01:34 PM

As the Chinese and the Americans have both demonstrated an interest in blowing things up in space perhaps we should work jointly to adapt our Star Wars technology to blow up rocks instead!


A

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 01:42 PM

The nasty feeling I have about all this is that the technology required to enable humans to divert asteroids away from the Earth would be pretty well the same as that required to enable humans to divert asteroids to hit the Earth.

Once I'd have thought that was a pretty unlikely thing for anyone to want to do, but I'm by no means so sure nowadays.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: skipy
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 01:46 PM

Never mind the UN, put the combined task forces of Chippenham & Warwick on the task, job done!
Skipy

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: jeffp
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 03:07 PM

I really don't think blowing it up is a great idea, as that would greatly increase the number of pieces in the general area, increasing the chances of a collision. It would be a smaller collision, but that would be offset by the greater odds of any collision at all, unless, of course, you could guarantee that it would be pulverized. That would probably create a fantastic light show as the particles enter the Earth's atmosphere, starting a meteor shower such as has never been seen before.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: beardedbruce
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 03:34 PM

And that much additional material would do what to "global warming"?

Either it becomes dust, blocking out sunlight, or could burn up, producing CO2...a greenhouse gas. So, as long as it is exactly half of each, it will be ok.

Care to make bets on THAT?

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: jeffp
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 03:48 PM

How much do the meteor showers we already get contribute to global warming? Should we insist on environmental impact statements from all meteors prior to their entry into the atmosphere?

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: beardedbruce
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 03:49 PM

Hey, we can pass laws against the variation in solar flux while we are at it...

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: John Hardly
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 03:53 PM

It's my understanding (from reading the posts of Don Firth here) that we will not have human life here by then anyway. Instead, we will be like Venus. Not Venus in Bluejeans. I think he meant the planet. But maybe he meant Venus de Milo. That could be even worse news with an approaching asteroid...

...we would be unarmed.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: jeffp
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 04:31 PM

29 years from now?

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Rapparee
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 04:50 PM

Why not equip Earth with thruster units and move it around instead?

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Peace
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 07:28 PM

All that stuff aside, I like ANY idea that may have a use for the UN. It would be a change.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:00 PM

As every politician in the past has already demonstrated, the best thing to get a group together is to have an external threat...

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: bobad
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:05 PM

As it has been since man lived in caves.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:13 PM

Is there something outside the cave?

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: bobad
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:19 PM

Well yes

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Peace
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:21 PM

YEP

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:54 PM

Glad I only have to look at the shadows on the wall then, in my old age...

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Peace
Date: 20 Feb 07 - 09:56 PM

Yeah, that does it for me too, FT.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: dick greenhaus
Date: 21 Feb 07 - 12:38 PM

The US bitching about the UN's ineffectiveness is something like a parent bitching about his or her dysfunctional family.

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: GUEST,IB48
Date: 21 Feb 07 - 04:37 PM

THEY COULD KEEP THE PEACE AT THE NEXT BORO V NEWCASTLE MATCH

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 21 Feb 07 - 11:45 PM

"Schweickart wants to see the United Nations adopt procedures for assessing asteroid threats and deciding if and when to take action."

Hmmm, taking into account how well they have handled up to now the current task of 'assessing military threats and deciding if and when to take action' up to now, I think I'll start building my own shelter deep in a rocky mountain...


"gravity tractor"

hmmm, would need a substantial mass - which would also be attracted towards the asteroid - thus should be heavier than the asteroid to divert the asteroid by any noticeable amount - acting over a considerable length of time....

Would like to see their maths - (on the physics!) apart from the ones on the money they should get.... :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Wolfgang
Date: 22 Feb 07 - 01:40 PM

They don't need a mass heavier than the asteroid or nearly as heavy as it. Even a very small change of the flight path of the asteroid will make a noticeable difference years later. They would need a much bigger mass if they would act just weeks before the impact.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: Don Firth
Date: 22 Feb 07 - 02:30 PM

John Hardly, you misrepresent what I have said on other threads.

The idea of a runaway greenhouse effect turning the earth into a second Venus (which suffered a runaway greenhouse effect millions of years ago) is not likely, but it is possible. Scientists—planetologist and climatologists in particular—say that this is the case, and what makes it especially cautionary is that we cannot be absolutely sure when we have crossed the "tipping point" where the process becomes irreversible.

It is a worst-case scenario. But ignoring the possibility might be a very dangerous thing to do.

Laugh at me all you like if it makes you feel good, but just remember, I'm quoting some pretty heavy-duty planetologists and climatologists here. This is not "science fiction." We are gradually learning that the balance of nature that permits life on earth at all is far more delicate than the scientifically uneducated believe or those with an ax to grind are willing to admit.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Use for the U.N.
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 22 Feb 07 - 08:06 PM

... or those who make profit... Don...