BS: Facing Frances

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:43 AM

If you were in Australia, Blackcatter, you could most definitely surf on Christmas Day - a lot of us do. It's midsummer here then.

Typical Christmas Day at chez JennyO is a barbeque with friends under the big shady tree - steaks or whatever you fancy sizzling, prawns, salad, plenty of coldies, a w(h)ine or two, and a session. Tempted??

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:37 AM

I grew up in San Bernardino - lived within 1 mile of the San Andreas fault. I'll take the hurricanes any day over an earthquake.

Besides, on Christmas Day, is your surf temp in the low 70s? I can surf without a wetsuit if the air temp is fairly warm.


The first "feeder" band just went through orlando. My wind gauge clocked a gust of 45mph. The eye of Frances has not come on shore (est. at 2 Sunday morning and will likely come on shore 125 miles south-east of Orlando.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Amos
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:36 AM

Gee, BC,

I can surf on Xmas day -- which is remarkable, even miraculous, since on all other days I don't know how to surf! And hurricanes haven't been around here for as long as I can remember.

A little earthquake once in a while, is all!

A-in-San-Diego

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:31 AM

As a native Floridian I've often thought that some areas, particularly barrier islands, should be "build at your own risk" zones. Fifty years ago nobody built anything but inexpensive, expendable cottages on the beach. Nowadays the typical single-family beachfront home is a multimillion-dollar extravaganza worthy of inclusion in "Architectural Digest". And when that valuable home gets blown away (and please note that I said when not if because it will happen eventually) the rest of us, through higher insurance rates or higher taxes, get to foot the bill for replacing it. I'm not saying that no one should be allowed to build on the beachfront, but if they had to do it at their own risk there'd be a lot more beachfront still around for the rest of us to enjoy.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 04:34 PM

And it's not just public funds - all my friends have insurance (I rent). Those that sustained damage will be covered by insurance, except for the deductible. After Andrew, the insurance cos. changed the way they insure - now, your deductible is 2 - 5% of the VALUE of the home. You own a $200,000 home and have a 2% ded. - you pay $4,000. Also - the deductible comes into play for each different instance of damage. For example if Charley ripped apart your roof, you have to pay the deductible. If Frances then trashes your poarch, you pay the deductible again. And FEMA does not cover the expense of most deductibles, so no one I know will get Federal Assitance for repairing their homes.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: robomatic
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 02:27 PM

Why do public funds get used to rebuild structures which shouldn't be there in the first place?

Oh, wait a minute. I live in earthquake central.

Rob from Anchorage

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,blackcatter
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 01:47 PM

It's all a trade. Occasional hurricanes is a price I'm wiling to pay to be able to surf on Christmas day. Everything's green, I'm on my 3rd corn crop in the garden already and If worst comes to worst - the school 2 blocks away is a shelter.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Charmion at work
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:43 AM

And people say Canadian weather is rough. I prefer the worst an Ottawa winter can throw -- and that's bad shit, believe me -- over the storms that rack the gentle climes my fellow Canucks flee to at the drop of a snowball.

Good luck, southern neighbours.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:19 AM

We haven't heard from Tweed, who lives in West Palm Beach, for several days. He hasn't even been around his own website http://tweedsblues.net/. I know he was planning on being at the Howlin' Wolf Blues Festival in West Point, MS this evening. Hopefully, he just pulled out early and is combining evacuatin' with festival goin'. There's nothin' you can do about the storm and listenin' to some good live blues beats bein' stuck in some high school gymnasium in Imakolee with 300 other smelly evacuees. I hope his new accordion is safe.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 09:47 AM

Oh dear, Roger. Maybe I should stop voting for Frances and go back to voting for Abigail?

Seriously though, my thoughts are with those of you who might be affected by this. I hope that damage is minimal and that you all stay safe.

Keeping my fingers crossed - Jenny

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Hrothgar
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 05:27 AM

They should not have named a hurricane after sear, sweet Frances.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 11:54 PM

Paul,

We've got 3 more months of hurricane season . . .



At this point, it looks like the eye might pass south of me (Downtown Orlando), but only 7 hours before I saw Charley's eye pass over me did I get any real evidence that it was heading for us. Besides, the north side of the hurricane is the toughest part. They're forcasting 100mph winds here, We got them as high as 80 with Charley. It's a big storm too. They're projecting landfall of the eye by 1-2PM Saturday (Eastern time) They estimate that the main edge of the storm will hit land around 20 hours before that. It's currently moving at 10mph. If it makes landfall where they figure, it will take 12 hours to get the eye passing Orlando. The heaviest rain (1/2inch to 1 & 1/2inch per hour) is an area over 200 miles in diameter. Those that have the eye pass over them will potentially have 20 hours of heavy rain and hurricane/tropical storm force winds. Luckily I'm surrounded by 4 lakes that can handle 20 inches of rain without much problem, but others aren't as lucky.

Don't know if the rest of the country is getting what the biggest worry for many of us - Charley left so much debris - probably only 70% of the debris, which we all piled up at the edges of our properties, have been picked up and toted away. The rest is sitting there, in front of homes, just waiting for a nasty wind gust to pick part of it up and throw it through a window. The past couple days the county and city officials have been telling homeowners to take the rest of the debris to the collection sites themselves. They haven't been able to explain how people without trucks are supposed to do this. Hell, I don't even have a car, and the debris pile in front of my place is over 8 foot high and runs the entire 80 foot length of the property excepting the driveway.

But when all is said and done, things will likely come off better for most of us that the "worst-case." We're just hoping it isn't another Andrew.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: katlaughing
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 11:43 PM

Good to hear from you, Paul. Good luck to your family and the horses.

May all be safe and well.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Paul G.
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 11:17 PM

We seem to have lucked out again up here in the northeast corner of the Sunshine State -- expecting only mild effects of the storm now. My son-in-law delivered our grandson to us this evening to keep him out of harms way while he and my daughter stay behind to look after their horses near the projected path of the storm. My partner in music, who lives right in the bullseye near Vero Beach has fled to the family compound in North Carolina. Smart move. We shall see how it goes....Those of you further south of me, stay safe, and be smart.

See you ont the other side of the storm.........

Paul

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Charley Noble
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 08:45 PM

At least here in Maine when we get a major hurricane, we've got bedrock nearby to cling to. If I were in Florida now, I'd drive like Hell to Kansas.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 08:01 PM

Thankfully, my family and friends are safely on the gulf coast. I hope all will be well for everyone here who lives or has loved ones on the southeast US coast.

Not much new in the 8 PM forecast. The speed of the storm is slowing a bit, but not the winds. Bahamas tonight and tomorrow; they are still predicting east central Florida as the likely landfall by Friday night. But the path doesn't seem that clear yet, does it?

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bill D
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 05:34 PM

it has been evident for a couple of days that this will be nasty...some areas that have not recovered from Charley will get additional damage.

I hope all goes as well as possible, and that lives are protected.

There is no way to declare the entire coast from the Carolinas to Key West as a 'forbidden' area for development, but we should take a serious look at exactly where we allow construction, and the building codes. It would surely be cheaper to make a house or hotel cost 3X, than to pay sky-high insurance and rebuilding costs every 5-20 years.

(and if Cape Canaveral gets it bad, or Miami is leveled, someone may listen.)

Please take care of yourselves and others, Mudcatters...we will be thinking of you constantly....

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: SINSULL
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 05:10 PM

Just heard from my niece. Her flight out tomorrow has been cancelled - I guess they are not letting planes land in South Florida. She is low on gas and now has to stock up for the storm she was supposed to miss. Her area is under mandatory evacuation - she is about one block from the ocean on the east side - Boca Raton. Store shelves are empty but a local WalMart is offering water and emergency supplies. She's double sealing things like her computer in garbage bags and taking whatever will fit in her car.

Good luck to you all. What insurance doesn't cover can be replaced. Stay safe.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 04:16 PM

OF course there are plenty of million dollar views in the flood plains. Why else do you suppose people want to keep building in them?

The flood plain restrictions are based upon the climatology data, which tells climatologists how often a devastating flood hits in a particular area based on how often it has happened, and how high the high water mark was for each flood. That determines whether an area is in a 25, 50, 100 or 500 year flood plain.

If it can be done with rivers, lakes, and streams, it can be done in the coastal areas in the hurricane prone areas too. If you went to the link I provided to the NOAA site, Guest 04:04 PM, you wouldn't sound quite so much like you are talking into your hat about something you obviously don't know anything about. With the data we now have, and the information we get with each new storm, we can easily start making building restrictions for the areas that already flood really badly and shouldn't be allowed to be rebuilt, unless it is done with cold, hard cash and no insurance bail outs or government handouts, IMO.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Larry K
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 04:05 PM

I know that my company (public utility in Michigan) has 30 linesman leaving for Florida tomorrow to help out with the restoration of power.   At least we will be helping out.   I am sure other utilities are doing the same.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 04:04 PM

One difference between the Atlantic Seaboard and the flood-plains of the Midwest - a Million Dollar View. Ain't nobody gonna stop the upper middle class and the wealthy from enjoying that.

And devastating hurricanes don't hit places every 5 - 10 years. Andrew (1992) his Miami squarely - something that hadn't happened since the 60s. Charley (and now Frances) hitOrlando - the first time since Donna in 1960 that there was this type of damage. The Keys haven't been damaged horribly since the 1960s Before that the 1920s.

The damage Hugo wrought to S. Carolina (89) is not likely to be repeated for another 20 years or so.

Add to that that, for the most part, the damage is quite scattered. Even with Andrew, less than 20% of homes in the Miami area were destroyed. About 30% of the homes on Florida's barrier islands are single family dwellings. The others are large, strong condo towers. I don't like them, but they are structurally designed to withstand the impact of a major hurricane. Some units get trashed, while the one next to it might be completely spared.

I have lived in South and Central Florida for 38 years - I've only been through 3 hurricanes - All without any damage to home or myself.

It's hard to say all that about flood plains.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 03:48 PM

Well, in the Midwest where we get plenty of flooding from rivers, lakes, and streams, there are now more and more localities that aren't going to get "helped" and rebuilt. Those locales are called a "flood plain" and the definition of which one you are in determines where or if you are allowed to build there. People used to be allowed to move right back in and rebuild, flood after flood, until the US government decided the taxpayers had had enough of subsidizing the lucrative "rebuilding" industries and rewarding people's stupidity for wanting to call a flood plain where their property was wiped out completely every couple of 5-10 years "home".

I'm hoping that will one day be the case with the hurricane locales. When I was in the Outer Banks this summer, looking at all these palatial mansions continuing to be built on what is more a sandbar than an island, all I could do was shake my head, knowing the majority of buildings on the island would be gone in the next 50 years. Maybe even by the end of this year, who knows? Maybe the island will be gone by then too, and moved over a coupla miles or so. That has been the story of the Outer Banks and the "Graveyard of the Atlantic" as the tourista industry loves to call it. It's never made any sense to me to try and sink one's heart's roots down into shifting sands, and making it "forever our home". Seems like lunacy to me.

This summer, we drove over a new inlet created by Isabel last fall. On the island, they were selling as a fundraiser, a calendar with photos, including aerial photos, of the destruction on the islands from that storm. And that was just one storm, which had lessened to a category 2 from a category 5 by the time it hit landfall at the Outer Banks.

The biggest problem with such weather disasters? Have a look see at the NOAA Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters, 1980-2003 website for some interesting insights.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Blackcatter
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 03:44 PM

Well right now, it looks as if my home might be the exact place where the eyes of Charley and Frances will cross.

Even with all the "keep calm" stuff the press/gov. is saying, they're already saying this could cost more than Andrew's cost.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 12:47 PM

Cleanup is tough. When I did a day of clean up after a tornado, I found that the need for help exceeded the supply of helpers. The red cross trucks were manned by kind old folks who could give you a tarp, gloves, coffee and food but what's really needed to go with that is mucho handpower. The biggest help was a team of ten highschool soccer players lead by their coach. They hauled more stuff to the curb in an hour than individuals could in a day. It was unecessary to wait to be invited to help. We just showed up on the street and helped homeowners do whatever they were doing. Having been through that, I wish you all the best in Florida. I have family in Melbourne.

Annie

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Mudlark
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 05:23 AM

Hurricanes and tornadoes are a scourge and scary as hell. Especially when family is scattered. Good luck, all.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 09:49 PM

I HATE HURRICANES!

Looks like we folks in the Florida Panhandle only have a very slight chance of Frances coming directly at us, but the possibility always exists that a strong storm like Frances can punch its way through the peninsula and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico strong enough to rebuild and threaten us or points further west like Mobile, New Orleans & Galveston/Houston. It's gonna be bad if someplace takes a direct hit, but it'll be even worse if it goes straight up the Atlantic coastline. It could raise hell all the way from Miami to Charleston.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 09:27 PM

...The worst part for me is my son is way over in Pensacola and the rest of my little family is in PB county and I can't reach anyone on the telephone...I'll try to call tomorrow and see if my parents and my brother and his family will come to my house...thank you for your kind words, mudcatters...

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: CarolC
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:44 PM

Good luck to all those in the path of the storm.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Amos
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:38 PM

Fingers crossed for ya, Harpy.

And for your own.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: katlaughing
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:32 PM

Doesn't sound good, hg. I am sorry, but will keep good thoughts for all. One does wonder why they keep rebuilding in the same places, same types of buildings, etc. meaning no offense to you or your family.

Stay safe,

kat

Subject: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:19 PM

This is a friend's take on the hurricane bearing down on Flori-DUH:      

    Based on the Brevard County Emergency Management, Sheriffs Office, KSC folks, etc. This isn't gonna be a direct hit but more of a serious slice. Starting ~ Sebastian the eye heads to O-town.
       The folks I talk with behind the scene are trying not to panic the people. By holding back critical information until the first ~180K folks get off the barrier islands, trailer parks are vacated and areas prone to flooding are abandoned it keeps a manageable stream of traffic on the inadequate roads. It's sublimely comical to hear our Governor speak reassuringly of how help will be there for us. Kinda like the wolf saying stay calm only a few will be eaten today. Much of this was anticipated but disregarded as the reckless development was encouraged. If it gets bad enough well pay to fix it. It didn't have to be this severe and the development machine knows it. They'll make a fortune "helping" rebuild.
       If the storm holds steady (which it is expected to strengthen) south to central Brevard (~40 miles) will have a chance to build from a clean slate. Serious information will hit the fan late tomorrow when the certainty becomes apparent. Expect Andrew like devastation to the right of the eye for 25 to 40 miles, Sebastian to Cocoa north.
       Then the real bad stuff kicks in. No power for nearly a month. This is likely to halt water, sewage, gas. The ripple effect of this---no food stores, no gas, no pharmacies, no hardware stores.

I was planning to visit my folks this weekend but driving into the path of a hurricane seems unwise...my dad won't evacuate. I hope he and my mom aren't in the eye. He lives in a tall heavy building. But my brother doesn't. He is very worried too, but hasn't left yet either. I feel sick about this one....harpy