BS: How the US will finally lose its power?

Subject: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 10:33 AM

I was having a conversation with a group of teenagers last weekend about the Howard Dean statement that the US wouldn't militarily be the world superpower forever, which lead to ruminating about how the US will finally lose it's grip.

The kids found it nigh on impossible to imagine how this could happen. I brought up the break up of the Soviet Union, and Russia's descent into the current era of organized crime, etc.

Personally, I think the break up of the US will also come from within, as it did in the Soviet Union. But I see the changes coming from far beyond the Beltway, which is where the majority of US national power resides, of course.

We had a very interesting conversation. Among the questions we pondered were: are we that far off from the time when there would be regional secessions from the national government, based on ethnic, cultural and ideological differences with the national government, resulting in regions wresting economic power from the national government? Is regional secession, for which there is historic precedence--the Civil War--the most likely scenario for the US breaking apart?

There are such profound social, cultural, ethnic, and ideological differences between regions (ie Northeast, Deep South/New South, Midwest, Old West, etc.) that are becoming more pronounced, not less. The Anglo Protestant power base has tried it's mighty best to maintain it's historic grip on the country. The right wing especially tries to keep up the make of a homogenized US, presenting a facade of 'True Americans' as lily white as homogenized milk. The mainstream media helps them make the case for the 'American' nationalist identity (it has never really been about one's political party affiliation). But it really isn't working.

So how long until the socio-political earthquake hits that destroys the US government, causing it to collapse, or at least attempt to transform itself as a greatly reduced national government? How do others think the eventual demise of the United States of America will unfold? Is Howard Dean right? Is this the zenith of the US military, because we will no longer be able to afford the financial drain of militarism on our economic well being?

Bush's current economic policy just boggles the mind. He is running up record deficits to pay for another surge of militarism, which now takes up half the entire US budget, cutting taxes at the same time. So, does he figure the US government will just still the defense contractors, or what? Is this the folly, along with the current run on slashing taxes to justify the axing of government services, that people will finally rebel against because it is happening in their front yards, instead of someone else's back yard?

As the current new crop of Republican governors in places like Massachusetts and Minnesota, traditional strongholds of liberalism, destroy the social fabric of those states by making draconian cuts in government services, are they the most likely places where resistance to the bankrupting of the American economy and destruction of American quality of life, will first be seen? Or will it be from a place like California, which has already seen it's share of woes with debacles like the Texas Republicrat invented energy crisis, which looted the coffers of the California treasury, and got away with it?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: kendall
Date: 02 May 03 - 10:42 AM

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad with power."

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: alanabit
Date: 02 May 03 - 10:47 AM

That is an interesting post, which I could well get involved with. If you wish to remain a guest at Mudcat - which is fine - would you at least post a name so that we can distinguish you from other guests who are likely to post to this thread?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST,Forum Lurker
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:10 AM

It's an idea that has been proposed by a number of science fiction authors, including Heinlein. They've generally predicted the secession of Washington, Oregon, and sometimes California, as a rebellion against increasing authoritarianism. The Republican mishandling of California's economy, and the rise of neo-conservativism, might lend a little credence to such predictions. On eithnic lines, the Southwest is probably the moslt likely candidate. I don't think it's likely that it will happen soon, but 20 years from now? If the Neo-Con dynasty gets its way in the next couple sets of elections, who knows what could happen?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:19 AM

The far northern tiers of the midwestern states are moving farther from the current national political standards. I look for something in the next 10-15 years.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Neighmond
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:20 AM

That last post was me. I purged my history and forgot to reset the cookie. Sorry for the confusion.

Chaz

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Peg
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:36 AM

well, there was an ENORMOUS rally on Boston Common yesterday, protesting Governor Mitt Romney's proposed cuts to the state education system. This guy has "bad news for Massachusetts" all over his face; I am stunned he was elected, but his advertising campaign was full of his pretty wife and six smiling sons and his running mate was not all that powerful.

Romney has also pledged to help the fishermen whose livelihoods will be destroyed by the recent oil spill on Cape Cod...but how can he say that on one hand and decimate the university system on the other??

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:58 AM

Minnesota's newly elected Republican governor's budget has polarized this state in a way I have never seen happen before. The governor was actually the architect of the tax rebate giveaway/vote buying extravaganza in the last legislative session here, which combined with the bad economy (and it has been worse here than in many other states, which is somewhat unusual), has resulted in an estimated $4-5 billion dollar deficit. His supposed campaign promise that he would balance the budget without raising taxes, has been predictable. He has gutted a decades worth of bi-partisan and moderate Republican social services reforms (welfare to work, state subsidized health insurance for the working poor who don't qualifiy for Medicare, an overhaul of nursing home laws, etc) which will have some pretty devastating long term effects on the quality of life here (ie we will likely see a resurgence in poverty and homelessness that has been unknown here since the Great Depression). Double digit tuition increases throughout higher education here for the fourth year in a row. Ventura was extremely hostile to both higher education and the arts, and the effects of that are hitting both those constituencies even harder under this budget.

In many states, these hits to the arts and education might not be considered a big deal by the citizenry that is more concerned with jobs, jobs, jobs, defense industry spending, etc. But like Massachusetts, the arts and education constituencies, along with corporate philanthropy and healthy state subsidies to the poor and working poor, has made Minnesota the crown jewel of the upper Midwest in terms of standard of living and quality of life.

However, something which may well be historically unprecedented (it sent the state historians scurrying to their legislative record books), the entire Democrat delegation in the Minnesota House (the bi-cameral legislature here is divided along party lines almost identically to the US Congress, except here the Dems have retained their small majority in the Senate) voted against the governor's budget bill. It still passed, but it is clear that the battle line has definitely been drawn in the sand for the next election and the next legislative session.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST,pdc
Date: 02 May 03 - 12:19 PM

I saw on the news last night that several currencies have gained substantially in value against the US dollar, all for the same reason: the American economy is in very bad shape.

This president is not taking care of business at home, which makes him a bad president. Aren't leaders elected to manage their own countries primarily? So while Bush is grandstanding, making war, being theatrical and carefully timing his speeches for sound bites, the American infrastructure, schools, health care situation, inner cities, etc. are all deteriorating further.

Although I can't predict how the US might lose its power, I think it will be from within, and that the current situation will powerfully contribute to the downfall.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 12:27 PM

Does anyone think the fall of the US will happen as a result of a hard turn to the left, as we saw as a result of the stock market collapse, the Great Depression, and the subsequent government reforms under FDR? I mean, the whole Neo-Con takeover has been a New Deal counter-revolution, really. It just seems to have gotten tragically out of hand, especially by moderate Republican standards.

I mean, when the President starts going after and devouring his own, you know the situation can't be good. All the checks and balances seem to be gone, now that the Patriot Act can be used to jail Democrats who disagree with John Ashcroft.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: kendall
Date: 02 May 03 - 01:00 PM

Don't blame the republicans. What we need is some democrats with balls.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 01:12 PM

Democrats like Europe's left-of-the-right-wing social democrats and Labourites, perhaps? No, thanks.

In the US especially, we have to break out of the tyranny of two party domination of the political system. The Red-Green German coalition is the one to watch, and has been for some time, IMO.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST,Forum Lurker
Date: 02 May 03 - 01:22 PM

kendall-What we really need is a revival of civic society. Barely half of those eligible voted in the last election. Most of them voted on straight party tickets, without bothering to inform themselves about the candidates or the issues. Politics is left to professionals, most of whom care more about their own power base than the good of the nation. If we don't get rid of our cultural apathy, we're going to come apart at the seams.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 02 May 03 - 01:40 PM

I agree with alanabit's polite request to the GUEST who started this thread. And to whoever posted the four other GUEST (unlabelled(posts), who may of course have been the same person. Just to allow people to know whether there is one line of reasoning or five already, adopt a label, PLEASE. It's not a question of wanting to know who they are.

History never repeats itself, but the Roman Empire probably gives a hint of what will happen...

For the end of the world was long ago,
When the ends of the world waxed free,
When Rome was sunk in a waste of slaves,
And the sun drowned in the sea.

When Caesar's sun fell out of the sky
And whoso hearkened right
Could only hear the plunging
Of the nations in the night.

When the ends of the earth came marching in
To torch and cresset gleam.
And the roads of the world that lead to Rome
Were filled with faces that moved like foam,
Like faces in a dream.

(From The Ballad of the White Horse , by Chesterton.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: NicoleC
Date: 02 May 03 - 01:54 PM

Personally, I think US power is already crumbling. The death rattles started some time ago. All world powers eventually die, and a lot of the rhetoric about trying to maintain or increase our power that we have been hearing in the last 10 years seems to be the surest sign that our foundation of power isn't very strong.

IMO it's possible that the US might split into two parts -- CA and the southwest with maybe NV, OR and WA along -- but I don't see it as likely anytime soon. The most likely scenario for such a split to me would have to be led by California, but I doubt that the other states who might philosophically join such a split would be content to let CA rule them. The probable structure would seem to me to be, at least at first, a confederacy of states with a separate joint "federal" government; much along the lines of the early US when there were strong states rights.

I tend to support such a split in theory, because I don't think that the US federal government begins to adequately represent the varying needs of this large and diverse country. I think the US would have to lose it's position as a world power first, I think, before there would be an internal split. Any split prior to that would be not only nearly impossible, but very damaging to relations. And although I meet many people who support an independant California, none of them would like to see anything other than close, friendly ties with the rest of the US.

We won't see any significant change in the world political situation that recognizes the US as the world power until there's another country or faction that is clearly the replacement. Is it a united Europe? Maybe if they can stop squabbling amongst themselves.

However, I'd venture to guess that China may be the next potential world power, but not for another 20 years or so.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: MMario
Date: 02 May 03 - 01:58 PM

Of course we already have an "in" with the King of Mississippi

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 02:05 PM

That is an interesting theory NicoleC, and I've heard the California secession idea too. But I can't help but wonder where California and the Southwest thinks it would get it's water from--they'd have to invade their neighbors to keep diverting it!

Actually, what most people don't realize is that water will soon be the new oil. Any futurist theorizing has to take water into account a whole lot more than it does oil. Fertile soil, lots of trees, and plenty of water is the reason why I continue to put up with Minnesota winters. And the fact that I don't think the Red/terrorist/pick your devil invasion will get this far. ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 02 May 03 - 02:10 PM

We won't see any significant change in the world political situation that recognizes the US as the world power until there's another country or faction that is clearly the replacement

That's where I think the Roman Empire analogy is helpful - because it suggests that this might not actually be true. I imagine if they'd been thinking about this back in Roman times they'd have been speculating about Parthia and so forth. But it wasn't like that.

Rome collapsed from within because of the contradictions it involved - being simultaneously a Roman Empire and a European (and beyond) empire. It didn't fall because the barbarians conquered. The barbarians conquered because it was collapsing. No one took over. And the rump of the Empire survived another thousand years in Byzantium, increasingly irrelevant.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Beccy
Date: 02 May 03 - 02:20 PM

Why not just call this thread, "How will the Republicans destroy the world?"

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 02:32 PM

Now Beccy, we've said the Republicans couldn't have destroyed civilization as we know it without their good ole boy Democratic friends. What's the matter? Does the thought of the End Days drawing near bother you? ;-)

Honest Beccy, just because I'm critical of the status quo, doesn't mean I don't want to hear Republican opinions of how the US will ultimately fall from it's present position as world superpower. I really would like to hear how you think it will happen.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: CarolC
Date: 02 May 03 - 02:33 PM

It's not just the Republicans, Beccy. The Democrats are culpable as well. I think it would be a lot more accurate say "how will the powerful special interests and the International Coporate Oligarchy destroy the world?"

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: CarolC
Date: 02 May 03 - 02:36 PM

Oops. "International Corporate Oligarchy".

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: NicoleC
Date: 02 May 03 - 03:31 PM

That is an interesting theory NicoleC, and I've heard the California secession idea too. But I can't help but wonder where California and the Southwest thinks it would get it's water from--they'd have to invade their neighbors to keep diverting it!

"California" is not synonymous which what people outside CA usually consider to be true, which is that CA = LA. Smetimes SF is included in that image, but SF isn't particularly "north" in CA, even though we call it Northern California.

So Cal is relatively deprived of water, but No Cal has plenty extra, most of which is sent down the aqueduct to So Cal. OR and WA also have plenty of potable water. The other major source of water for So Cal is the Colorado River, which serves much of CA below LA. 35% of the fresh water in So Cal comes from aquifiers or groundwater.

As for the rest of the southwest, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico get their water from the Colorado River. Lake Mead has a 2 year supply behind the Hoover Dam.

I think it's fallicious to assume that war would be necessary to procure water anyway, since water rights are a tradeable commodity. Water is an important political subject in the SW and So Cal; one that the west coast is very well practiced at negotiating.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: NicoleC
Date: 02 May 03 - 03:39 PM

Kevin -- I don't think a scenario like the Roman empire's collapse is totally applicable, although it's instructive. The world today is far more interdependant than it was then, and the pace of events much faster. It's hard to imagine the same kind of lengthy power vacuum in the wake of the Roman empire's collapse when a military threat can be mounted in terms of days instead of years. *Someone* would manage to take up the slack in a very short period of time, IMO.

But if there is an equivalent to the barbarians, it would probably be multinational corporations, plundering national resources because they are not carefully guarded by the nations. In our generation, the corporate barbarians are taking over the government by intergration instead of conquest.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Amos
Date: 02 May 03 - 04:04 PM

I am willing to bet $100 that none of the above scenarios will happen. The paralle with the USSR was simply short-sighted and ignored the differences between the two in order to acheive tiny frissons of futurism.

There was an effort at secession in the early 19th century, but there was no secession in fact -- at most, the CSA got recognized by one or two nations, and only broefly at that. The effort was throughly kiboshed.

God spare us if the Republicans abuse the nation to the point of causing any segment of it to try to secede.   If Bush were running the Civil War, he'd quickly forget about "being from Texas", and would turn Atlanta into another Kabhul.

A

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Forum Lurker
Date: 02 May 03 - 04:39 PM

Amos-The fact that secession failed was a byproduct of the reason for secession. The South was ideologically split from the North in a manner which made certain that the seceding states were smaller in population and industrial base from the North. Even then, the South's advantage in generalship made things close to a toss-up. Britain considered giving the CSA aid to keep the cotton flowing.

We might not fracture as much as Russia, or as quickly. It would, however, be somewhat arrogant to claim that the American hegemony will last forever. Whether from internal division, outside attacks, or simply our own inertia, we will eventually fall from power.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: DonMeixner
Date: 02 May 03 - 04:45 PM

Except for the fact that all things that begin must also end I must wonder at this thread.

Why bother?

   Are you asking whether the government will lose its power? It probably will and then a new government will take it's place. Happens fairly often all tho' the potential to change the government is evry two years.
   Are you asking about the democratic notion losing power? That I doubt will ever happen. Iceland, Greece, some American Indian tribes,
and some other places in Europe at different times in history have held to the notion of a democratic society. One person one vote.
The Democratic notion has disappeared in one place only to re-emerge elsewhere and rebuild on strength of the old ideal with new ideas tuned to the place and time. Read the Irish Declaration of Independence and you read the American Declaration as well as some parts of the Articles that were agreed upon to form the Iroquois Confederacy. The system continues to refine and reinvent it self.
   If you are wondering if and when the American People will lose their power I will tell you I doubt we ever will. We have continually reinvented our selves and our country for nearly three centuries. Sometimes we take awhile to be aware of things but we all eventually can tell Bullshit when we hear it and horseshit when we smell it. And after awhile we get up an do what is needed.
I have said before that we often take several steps back ward but we alway take one step more than we lost forward. We may move slowy but we advance.
The power of the United States has very little to do with the politics at play but it has everything to do with the peoples rights to change their politics and their politicians.
Is your real question when will civilization fall. It never has.
The nature of civilization is also movement and change. The idea of a civil society is another device that can't be usurped or contained.
And civilization is also defined by place and time. Egypt, Mesopotamia, Greece, Timbuktu, Cathay, Persia, Rome... all had flourishing civilizations that flowered died and moved on to another place and time.
   Maybe I didn't understand the question. But I do understand Americans even if I don't understand politics. America will never lose its power because it's people aren't capable of stagnation.
Other countries may come to dominance on the world stage. But America will always be unique and powerful because of the people who live here and not because of the politicians who try and run the show.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Amos
Date: 02 May 03 - 04:55 PM

Don't confuse our particular position of hegemony with our national structure. They are separate waves that are not even in synch. and draw from very different variables.

We may wax and wane in our economic and political position vis-a-vis Africa, China and Europe, for example, but it isn't going to deconsturct the Union. It just isn't in the cards, unless the oppression from the Federal government gets a lot more outrageous.

A

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST,Claymore
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:05 PM

I should just note that I really see no reason that the US could not last forever (however that will eventually be determined). The Nation is far too interconnected to fall out (California being an excellent example). People forget that the US military is peopled from all parts of the nation, but most especially from the South, which contrary to the Civil War, is now the most patriotic of all regions. And the California National Guard is no match for the "Pros from Dover".

But I do share one bias with the wistful ones... if it happened at all, it would most likely be the Republicans, as the Democrats couldn't take over a 7-11...

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: DonMeixner
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:10 PM

The Pros from Dover? Just a bunch of golfers in Pappa-san outfits with bamboo umbrellas. They should stick with tracheo-esophogeal fistulas and leave golfing to the lawyers.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:24 PM

One possibility is one in which increased globalisation means a planet wide polity, with the people who control America in the driving seat. (By which I means the executives of the multi-nationals rather than the voters.)

Sooner or later the fact that the overwhelming number of people, and the overwhelming amount of resources, within this polity are not in America, should mean that the centre of gravity is no longer in America. Eventually, when some kind of democratic control of the globalised system gets introduced (probably after considerable struggle), it ends up with America as just a small part of the planet, with no greater control than any other part.

Or alternately in that kind of scenario, America pulls back and operates as a separate planet.

And so on and so forth.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: DonMeixner
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:27 PM

Civilization/democracy moving to fit the time and place.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:28 PM

Claymore, I haven't seen anyone suggest there would be any military takeovers. Hell, even the Soviet Union's military collapsed quickly once the wall went down. The soldiers just left and went home. Or don't you remember that part?

What some of us are saying is that there would be peaceful civilian secession from the union, a breaking up of the US into regional governments. A nationalist agenda can't be supported if citizens stop sending their taxes to Washington, and the soldiers go home.

BTW, the Midwest could live without Washington or the South quite handily. Not only are we still the nation's breadbasket, but we have a good amount of healthy industries, resources, in most areas, a solid physical and social infrastructure that hasn't been destroyed (yet) by Neo-Cons.

You aren't seriously suggesting the South would invade us, are you?

I guess I'm quite surprised there are some right leaning people who can't conceive of a USA that won't live forever. As in can't even get their head around the idea.

Nothing lives forever, and that has nothing to do with human endeavors. It has to do with something much more powerful--nature. That is why all empire is folly. We can't defeat nature. Not now, not ever.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:42 PM

McGrath, I agree with much of what you say. I think globalisation will lead to the eventual break-up of the US, as it already has in the Soviet Union. I also think China is the next major player that will come forward on the world stage. No one has gotten hold of her resources, now have they? And not bloody likely for some time to come.

However, I disagree that the corporate take over of the world is now, or ever will be, solely an American thing. Globalisation is every bit as European as it is American in the West, just as it is Japanese and Chinese in the East. I think it is merely a quirk of fate that the US military ended up outlasting the Soviet military. But a lone superpower can't last long in this world. China will most certainly challenge US power. Think about it. Who is the only country in the world to challenge Bush's authority and made him back down since being elected?

That is no coincidence. Washington is scared shitless of the Chinese.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Don Firth
Date: 02 May 03 - 05:53 PM

Two articles worth reading.

Coagulation.
How to Stir the Soup.

Let's get crackin', folks!

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Mr Happy
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:06 PM

ancient & modern? civilisations?:

minoans
egyptians
aztecs
the disappeared from easter island
chinese various dynasties
mesopotamia [iraq et al]
greeks
arabs
british empire
japanese empire
german empire
portuguese empire
french empire
dutch empire
welsh empire [patagonia]
spanish empire
mongol empire

& many more

in the course of history,nations,countries, cultures, spheres of influence take turns at being big chief,number one big fella of the world.

its USA's turn just now, but after it's decline- there'll be another waiting in the wings- but looking at above list & history- its unlikely anybody gets 2 go's.

the next world power will probably be some place that hasn't had a turn yet.

what think you?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: CarolC
Date: 02 May 03 - 11:37 PM

Have we already ruled out the possibility of a complete and simultaneous enlightenment of all of humanity, sort of catching us all by surprise and resulting in worldwide egalitarianism and cooperation?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Sam L
Date: 03 May 03 - 12:14 AM

CarolC, yes.

Tend to agree with Don, insofar as the example of the U.S. as a free country is it's real power, and has also been quite powerful without force or war. America's other powers, military and economic, have been about as dirty as anywhere, and I don't really care about that as a speculative question. But despite all valid criticism, there remains an example of something to try for. We fail it, of course, but at least we get to go through the motions.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 03 May 03 - 09:14 AM

I'm working on a vision of a contemporary Minoan empire, which conquers the world through an international scourge of Pottery Barns.

Do you suppose we could make up for the National Museum debacle in Iraq by opening a few Pottery Barns and Pier I stores in Baghdad?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: DMcG
Date: 03 May 03 - 10:00 AM

One possible answer would be when an elected government supported by the American citizenry is unable to refuse to do something against its percieved national interest because it is unwilling to risk offending another power - such as a multinational commercial organisation.

Under that definition, you may feel it has already happened.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 03 - 11:34 AM

I can imagine people having a similar discussion back in the time of Peruckes, about which city is going to topple Athens, or of Italy couple of thousand yeasrs later, about which Florence and Sienna and so forth.

And then the stage got a bit bigger, and the rivals turn intio neighbours. And the same thing has happened in Europe now, you could say.

I imagine that will be the way with this too, in time.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Forum Lurker
Date: 03 May 03 - 01:14 PM

Could be, McGrath. On the other hand, Athens did get toppled, as did Florence, the Holy Roman Empire, the British Empire, the USSR, etc. The stage might get better, but it'll take a while.

DonMeixner-I think we are definitely capable of stagnation. The situation we are in now seems rather stagnant to me, if not decaying.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 03 May 03 - 02:17 PM

I agree. The roughly 50/50 ideological split in the US that has so polarized politics, is what is behind the stagnation. Of course, some people seem to think (wrongly, IMO) that is A Good Thing, because so long as the government is polarized and stagnate, politicians can't do any real damage.

One would hope these sorts of folks would now realize that Bush proves the lie in that theory.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Ebbie
Date: 03 May 03 - 02:47 PM

I have a question off the topic (so what's new?) but kind of tied to it: During the Great Depression, say from 1930 to 1936, what nation(s) suffered least? Was there any nation that thrived during that period? Which was the 'world power'?

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 03 - 02:56 PM

There wasn't a single "world power" then, and there normally isn't. That's what is so odd about the present situation. Normally there's a bunch of rivals squaring up to each other, or makin alliances, or competing.

That's why to find anything comparable to this where there's only one power really in the business you have to go back to Roman times, when, within what was effectively a whole world, there was only on player that counted. (And up the other end of the Old World, you could say the same of China.)

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: Forum Lurker
Date: 03 May 03 - 04:01 PM

Europe suffered more, overall, than did America. Nations without global trade connections suffered least, but that was only because they had less to lose.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST
Date: 03 May 03 - 04:20 PM

The greatest world powers militarily in 1930 were the British empire, and the American empire.

That hasn't changed since, although the Soviet Union gave us a good run for the money during the Cold War.

And China has been amassing a shitload of weaponry, technology, and training of a huge fighting force, and hasn't spent any of it's payload to date, except in some skirmishes here and there. Which is why the US doesn't want to test their military might.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: GUEST,sorefingers
Date: 03 May 03 - 04:48 PM

Interesting questions. The history I read suggested Lead Poisoning as the cause of Rome's fall, not the Celts who came back after 700 years and finished what Brennus started.

The USA already well on the way towards internal collapse - see Israeli influence in foreign policy, often utterly against the long term interests of the average American - blindly follows a policy of so called liberalisation of certain regions of the globe; oddly these very regions don't want to be 'liberalised' and instead cling to a fundamentalism far far more potent than any Babble-on kind we already know in the west.

Perhaps this is the real challenge which the USA must first confront then later be froced to accept defeat.

There remains yet one factor ignored - wondering why? - by most discussions, the environment. Already we are living on a planet well on the way to radical change. Our greedy automobiles/engines eat away at the very stuff we need to survive, the air, by the cubic MILE and nobody seems to connect weather, health eg SARS, and other phenomena with it; morover those who do connect these things are fast shut down, or up, by Corporate Amurika which shouts down with Massmedia bullying any attempt to question our plight.

Perhaps that alone will first weaken then destroy the most part of the Americas leaving but Mountain regions as habitable?. In any case the arrival of Corporate Industrial mismanagement to China, esp Ag products, together with the vast numbers of carbon fuel gobbling engines sold, explains to some, not blinded to truth, what is about to happen. Put it this way, Hiroshima was irresponsible because it excused the environmentaly inexcusable for politics and HUMAN GAIN,
Mal Wart USA will SELL YOU FRESH AIR at the same time it finances the means to destroy it - the Chinese pollution of Earth's mantle. It is greed and gain for it's own sake, let those who cannot afford to move to the dwindling islands of clean air die where the choke.
Mal Wart USA... oh yeah!

Los Angeles, New York, Seattle, Miami..

In that scenario Water does not matter, however it would if we survive being choked by Chinese wind driven clouds of Oxygenless Nitrogen.

Another possibility is being discovered by some Alien race which may or may not eat us, consume our planet, perhaps they may arrive take one look and leave. In anycase the possibility is so remote as to be irrelevant.

I vote for a Tornado erasing the White House off the face of the earth the very day that the Republicans decide to go ahead with Program China Air (lessness)

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: CarolC
Date: 03 May 03 - 05:02 PM

The US seems to have become like the "Edgar bug" in the movie Men in Black. A shell of its former self that has been taken over and is being animated from within by something malevolent and destructive.

Subject: RE: BS: How the US will finally lose it's power?
From: dick greenhaus
Date: 03 May 03 - 05:06 PM

I suspect that if the US falls as a world power, it will be for the same reason that the USSR did. It'll go broke, spending its resources on things with little or no bebefit to its citizens.