BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 17 Jul 07 - 09:37 PM

Rig--

I'm sure there are some Hispanic families who oppose illegal immigration. However:

1) This fact supports my contention that, as generations go by, all immmigrants eventually assimilate. Therefore the prediction that the current Hispanic wave is a long-term threat to the US is wrong.

2) Though some Hispanics may be against illlegal immigrants, most legal Hispanics see the mean-spirited attempts to make life difficult for illegal immigrants as aimed at all Hispanics, not just illegals. It pushes them further away from Republicans, whom they see as the ringleaders in the campaign against illegals, and towards Democrats--if the Democrats offer a path to citizenship for illegals. And they will.

Hence the title of this thread.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 17 Jul 07 - 11:47 PM

"...if the Democrats offer a path to citizenship for illegals. And they will."


                Schumer will, Tester won't. I submit that in the next election more Tester Democrats will be elected than Schumer Democrats, so the party doesn't make the difference. It might it they were the only ones in the debate today, but the debate will probably not take place now, until after the 2008 election.

                I was presented with a ray of hope, however, today, while listening to NPR on the radio. The Catholic Church has expressed an element of concern relating to the seculariztion of Spain under its present government. Their fear, of course, is this: if Spain becomes sufficiently secularized, the trend could spread to Latin America. That's bad news for the Catholic Church.
                It's very good news for those of us who are concerned about illegal immigration in North America, however. If Latin America becomes sufficiently secularized and comes to its senses when it comes to family planning, much of the problem we face today will simply go away.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 18 Jul 07 - 10:06 PM

Rig--

I suspect Tester and like-minded politicians can be induced to support a path to citizenship for illegals. As I said, it's a path, not a magic wand.

And as I've pointed out--and you echo--the move won't be made til after 2008.

By then the probably overwhelming support of the Democratic presidential candidate by Hispanics-- and their growing clout-- will have the effect I cited.

If you don't think the Democrats will offer a path to citizenship, exactly why not?

If you think more restrictionists will be elected:

1) Why was that not true in 2006? Many lost in 2006.
2) The Republicans have the most vulnerable candidates in 2008--and the most restrictionists. Many will disappear--and their places will be not be taken by Democratic restrictionists, but by people more inclined to inclusion--since that's what the US has been about--and certainly what Democrats have been about for quite a while.    If you don't believe this, why not?

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 19 Jul 07 - 12:44 AM

Ron - You seem to want to divide the political factions into restrictionist and non-restrictionists, but there are a whole lot of other factors in play.

                Dorgan, for instance, is against legalizing a bunch of aliens because he feels it would hurt labor, which is also a major part of the Democratic party. Boxer was with him for a while, and you won't find a more liberal Democrat than Boxer.

                I agree that Democrats, unless they do something really stupid, should find themselves in control of both Congress and the White House after the next election, but a number of other things are going on.

               Do you think political operatives are going to move to legalize a bunch of aliens if the country is in a recession? That happens after almost every war, and Iraq can't go on forever.

               Technology is rapidly replacing unskilled labor, and the only reason it hasn't done so faster is the illigals have driven the value of labor so low, normal automation hasn't been allowed to take place.

               In addition to that, in the last round of the failed Senate bill, pressure was put on Congress to allow more highly skilled workers in, and cut back on unskilled workers. These people are not going to abandon their efforts.

               Couple all of that with more Protestant leanings and continued secularization in Catholic countries, which makes both the driving force, overpopulation, and the magnetic draw of jobs in North America work against continued immigration. If we can hold them off a little bit longer, I think, most of their motivation for coming here will go away, and they'll finally get to the task of fixing things in their own countries.

                None of that takes into account the growing realization of the environmental community that continued immigration is a really bad thing. I think you're trying to apply a 19th century model to a 21st century reality.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 19 Jul 07 - 10:40 PM

Rig--


I just wanted to say it's a pleasure to debate you on this--so good it doesn't get into a personality conflict--and that you're willing to both debate issues and provide facts. On top of this you're not a conspiracy theory addict--that seems to make you a rare bird around here. Too bad more political threads don't go this way.

At any rate, I don't have enough time to address all your issues tonight.

Re: Dorgan: he won't be against the new immigration wave when he realizes it could bring Labor--a lot of--new members. As I said, a hefty increase in the minimum wage--above the planned one--as part of the deal will likely be enough to win his support. Current union membership is slipping away with manufacturing jobs. One of the few bright spots is public service unions--in which Hispanics could easily be employed. Another growing area is medical workers. Both are non-manufacturing areas--and have places for lower-income workers. In fact ability to speak Spanish--as long as you also speak English--will be progressively more of an advantage.

It would be fascinating to have Big Mick's perspective on the issue of illegal immigration. I suspect he sees the new wave as more of an opportunity than a danger--and sees the upside of a path to citizenship for illegals.


Recession: remember the Iraq war is unlike any other but the Vietnam War. The problem for the economy with the Vietnam situation, I'm sure you know, was trying to have guns and butter at the same time. Not so this time-Bush cares nothing for butter. And consider how much money is being wasted in Iraq all the time--if we could turn off that spigot, it would help, not hurt, the economy. Were it not for the willingness of foreigners to support the US economy, we'd already be in a world of hurt. But they continue to do so----including the Chinese. Among other things they want what is seen as a stable place to park their earnings--and they know their own economy is overheated.

Maybe tomorrow night I can get to your other points.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 19 Jul 07 - 10:53 PM

Rig--

One more thing--I wasn't aware Dorgan was a big union man--are you sure it's Dorgan you mean? (My answer still holds).

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 19 Jul 07 - 11:30 PM

Yeah!

"(WASHINGTON, D.C.) --- U.S. Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) said Tuesday he's offering an amendment to remove the guest worker provision from the immigration bill because it is "part of the agenda to put downward pressure on the wages of American working men and women."

                I got this off the senator's web-site. I'm not sure which Tuesday they're talking about, but it was during the time the Senate was debating the immigration bill.

                  And you're right. It is constructive to have a discussion that doesn't degenerate into ideology. It's rare, it seems, and refreshing.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 20 Jul 07 - 07:23 AM

Rig--

Sorry, I got Dorgan and Dornan mixed up. They're different-to say the least.

But I still say that Dorgan can be won over to a policy of a path to citizenship for illegals--through the approach I cited.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 20 Jul 07 - 04:38 PM

It's interesting you'd bring up Dornan. He still contends he lost his seat in Congress because illegal aliens were voting.

               I still think the Dems. are going to be tougher on immigration in the future, and not more lenient. The state of the economy the next time it comes up will determine its fate, I think.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 20 Jul 07 - 10:04 PM

Rig--


Poor Dornan. Pobrecito.

Democrats will be tougher on illegal immigrants in 2008? Why? There's nothing in it for them--and if they set out a reasonable path to citizenship they stand to lock in the Hispanic vote for the foreseeable future. And results in the 2006 election have already indicated that Republicans, through their restrictionist stance, lost the gains they had made from 2000 to 2004. Hispanics may be conservative as regards patriotism, education, and religion--all approaches Bush took successfully in 2004---but a perceived campaign against them--and that's how they look at Tancredo's push, trumps all the rest. And I am talking, of course, of Hispanic voters--that is, already legal.

And as I said earlier, unions will also see the benefit of a path to citizenship for illegals--if the approach I cited is taken.

The business community is already not smitten with restrictionists. Just today, the WSJ pointed out that, thanks to tighter border enforcement without opening up legal immigration, crop losses in California are likely to be 30% this year--nobody to pick the crops. Growers are already moving chunks of their operations south of the border. If the US won't import foreign workers to help harvest US crops, we'll be buying the same crops harvested by the same workers--but they won't be US crops. Or we'll pay a lot more for scarcer fruit and vegetables. Prices soaring at your grocery?--ask Mr Tancredo. Most Americans may not really like the idea.


Tancredo and his followers will be progressively isolated.

The only thing that can save them is a depression--with its attendant xenophobia.

I'm sure you're not hoping for a depression.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 20 Jul 07 - 11:36 PM

Okay, leave Tancredo out of it for a moment, and concentrate on Lou Dobbs and his Hispanic wife. Lou is against runnaway immigration for the same reasons I am. Overpopulation, hurting the American worker, and the environment.

                  As far as a depression, if that's what it takes, that would be better than where we're going under Bush. In fact, that's probably exactly where we are going under Bush.

                  You can hold George W. Bush up as a perfect role model if you want to, but I think you're in the minority.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 23 Jul 07 - 04:06 PM

http://www.mailtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070723/BIZ/707230306


                   I don't know why I can't make it live.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 01 Nov 08 - 02:26 PM

Better late than never

"I don't know why I can't make it live".

That's OK, I don't know why you can never make any sense or do anything but smear Obama, proving, as I said earlier, that you have no principles--attacking the only person who can keep out of the Oval Office a witchcraft-believing, "End-Times"- welcoming fundamentalist (Palin).   And a man who will do his best to try to tear down the church/state division--which he can do with the strict constructionist judges he would appoint, since ("separation of church and state" is not in the Constitution. (McCain). Anybody who does not try to defeat this pair and claims to be concerned about organized religion is indeed the perfect hypocrite.

However, back to the topic:




It becomes more and more evident that the thread title is indeed true.

Democrats stand to make big gains in areas where the Hispanic vote makes a difference. Between 2000 and 2008 "the Hispanic electorate will have doubled, to 12% of voters. By 2006 Hispanics represented 31% of voters in New Mexico, 13% in Nevada..."

"In Colorado alone, more than 70,000 new Latino voters have registered since 2004."

Source: WSJ 1 Nov 2008. Their source is Census data and a Democratic group which is studying the electorate. If anybody wants to point out that a Democratic group would not be objective, they are invited to provide their own data--with source.



And, of course, these are all citizens--though they are influenced by the harsh face of the Republican party toward illegal immigrants.

The face of Mr. Tancredo.


Too bad, Mr. Riginslimer, you lose---more every year.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 01 Nov 08 - 03:52 PM

"Anybody who... claims to be concerned about organized religion is...
                         There you go again!



    "Source: WSJ 1 Nov 2008."
                         There you go again!

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Bill D
Date: 01 Nov 08 - 06:05 PM

*just remembering why I dropped out of this discussion once it became an "oh yeah?" match between Ron & Rig.*

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 01 Nov 08 - 08:38 PM

I agree, Bill, it would have been best to have left it alone.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 02 Nov 08 - 10:25 PM

No contest.

My only point is that if Obama wins NM, NV or CO, or if Democrats make headway in any of these, it will likely be because of certified classically stupid attitudes like that of Mr. Riginslimer--driving the growing Hispanic vote to Obama and the Democrats in general.

For which we have to thank Mr. Riginslimer's patron saint, Mr. Tancredo--as the title of the thread indicates. And possibly his archangel, Mr. Dobbs.

In fact the results were already plain in the 2006 election

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 02 Nov 08 - 10:32 PM

Except McCain didn't have anything to do with it, and Dobbs isn't a Republican, so the analogy doesn't work.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 04 Nov 08 - 12:29 AM

Mr. Ringinslimer--


A year ago you seemed pretty reasonable. Since then, however, you've treated us to a full year of nonstop singularly pathetic, seamy, and stupid smears of Obama. And that appears to be your real persona.



You still don't read very carefully, do you? I mentioned that Democratic gains in 2006--and any Democratic gains this year--not just Obama but down the ticket--in CO, NM, and NV-- can be attributed in large part to the growing Hispanic vote, lopsidedly Democratic, thanks to the Neanderthal attitudes of Tancredo, Dobbs--and you.

It is entirely true, of course, as you note, that in 2006 McCain had nothing to do with losses due to alienation of Hispanics. His stance on immigration at that point was quite reasonable.

And if he had stuck to his position, rather than truckling to bigots (like your good self?) who want to insist on the border being "secured"--a chimera several eons in the future, if then--before a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants is considered--he would still be in good shape with Hispanics.

But now he is tarred with the brush of harsh attitudes toward illegal immigrants, which is the current dominant strain in the Republican party.

Harsh attitudes totally endorsed by you, and, as I read it, probably the main reason you attack Obama--in addition to the fact that he is a prominent black man, not safely dead--and hence a threat to you in what passes for your brain.

By the way, you still haven't mentioned anything about music you like. As I said, we don't need "politics only" posters--especially racists.

If you are a "politics only" poster or a racist, please don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 04 Nov 08 - 08:06 AM

Ron - I'm sure you'd love to be the gate keeper; it's pathetic in a way that no one listens to you. But the reality is, the election will be over after today, so there's no sense in going on with this.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 05 Nov 08 - 01:50 AM

The title of this thread is particularly apt tonight--though obviously Tancredo has to take a back seat to Mr. Bush, who is truly Democrats' best friend.   But look at Obama's victories in CO, NV and NM--all 3 of the states I mentioned earlier. Hispanics played a huge role--and his share of them is way up from Kerry's share--due in large part to the incredibly stupid stance of the Republican party on the illegal immigration issue, placing themselves squarely on the wrong side of demographics.

His success in the 3 states mentioned is the sort of thing that makes Obama a national leader--not just winner on the east and west coasts.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 05 Nov 08 - 09:11 AM

Well, Ron, you seem to be right about the demographics of those three states, but in a way, it's kind of a chicken-or-the-egg kind of a question. If all of the many illegals had not been allowed into the country after the 1986 amnesty bill was passed--in other words, if the laws had been upheld at the time--great numbers of the people who live in those three states today would have been born in Latin American countries, and would not be voting here.
                      If you do the math, you will see that a person born in 1986 would just be reaching voting age in 2004--the Kerry election. So if nothing is done, the demographics will be different again in 2012, and radically different by 2016.
                      Many Hispanics think this is a really good thing; some of us do not.
                      All of that having been said, it's a problem now that the new president will have to deal with. It's important for the American public to get behind him now. The problems he faces are just too huge for him to have to put up with all of this endless bickering.
                     The election is over!

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 05 Nov 08 - 10:33 PM

Rig-

You can do as many "what if's" as you want, but eventually you'll have to come back to reality.

The election is indeed over--and one of the main building blocks of Obama's winning coalition is the Hispanic vote. Not only was it crucial in the 3 states I predicted, but it will not stop now. And we are talking about only Hispanic voters--all citizens.

As I said, the Republicans, stupidly ruled by restrictionists like Mr Tancredo and Mr. Dobbs, have now paid the price at the polls 2 elections in a row.   And it will only get worse from here on --as long as they are perceived as blocking a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.   The Hispanic voters themselves are of course totally legal--but a huge number know illegal immigrants--often part of their extended family--and they will reject any party which tries to prevent a path to citizenship for them.

The irony, of course is that these same Hispanic voters are often quite conservative on other issues--like abortion, patriotism etc--a fact which GWB used in 2004--before the push to close the border--and made the difference in that very close election.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 05 Nov 08 - 10:50 PM

I can see that you are right about all of that, Ron, but personally I think the issue of abortion is a stupid non-issue. It should be up to the individual person who is being affected and not dictated by people who have no stake in the matter.

                   And you're right again, by recognizing that Bush used this element to move those voters to support him in 2000 and 2004. Ultimately, it seems to me, the American people are going to have to decide just how many people they think North American can support comfortably, and that would be the determining factor.

                   Maybe the agonizing irony of it all is, the only option that is given to the voters is to build a fence or not to build a fence. The problem, of course, is that building a fence doesn't do much to curb population growth, but not building a fence is just a little bit worse. Nobody seems to be willing to deal with the entire problem--at least not people who are in a position to do anything about it.

                  Frankly, I think it is an issue that could very easily escalate to the point of armed violence. I'm a little surprised that is hasn't already.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 05 Nov 08 - 11:41 PM

A fence just will not work--no matter how long or tall-- as long as there is economic incentive to come to the US.

Simple as that.

All you do by building a fence is alienate Hispanics on both sides of the border--and needlessly create problems for animal species used to roaming across the border.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 06 Nov 08 - 07:29 AM

Yes, I think you're basically right about that, but that's all the Congress and George W. Bush offered. Hopefully, Obama and the new Congress will have some more productive ideas.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 06 Nov 08 - 09:35 PM

Actually I think the 2006 immigration bill had great promise--needed some adjustment, but was on the right track. But the restrictionists, having deluded themselves into thinking they'd get a more favorable bill later, killed it.

Hope they're happy now.   They will never see a bill more in their interest than that one---as I said at the time---in fact, the longer they wait, the more unhappy they will be with the result.

And they won't be able to stop it--as both parties realize more and more the vital nature of appealing to the growing Hispanic vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 06 Nov 08 - 11:14 PM

Ron - Your approach seems a little too fatalistic to me, but I'll continue to hope for the best.
                        Time is a tricky thing, though, sometimes. Just as we're seeing the price of fuel dropping at the pump, we are seeing hordes of illegals fleeing the country as a result of the financial meltdown.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 07 Nov 08 - 09:54 PM

They are not "fleeing the country"--another of your loaded terms, just when it seemed you were starting to make sense--they are leaving since they can't get jobs as easily, especially with the construction industry imploding. ( And they are not coming in as great numbers, for the same reason.)

There is a difference.

And it does not change the self-defeating nature of the restrictionists.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 07 Nov 08 - 11:30 PM

Okay, Ron. I'll accept your terminology. They are leaving the country because there are no jobs.

                  The question now is, will they ever be back, given the economic realities that are being faced by American workers, and the need for other industries to "mechanize" in order to stay competative, including the industry of agriculture?

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 08 Nov 08 - 03:13 PM

As I'm sure you know, some jobs just won't ever be able to be mechanized, including some in agriculture.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 08 Nov 08 - 06:05 PM

Well, that's true. But if efforts to bring realistic wages and benefits to migrant workers are successful, those things that have to be done by hand will simply cost more money. It will also spur some modern day Thomas Edison on to figure out a way to do the job more efficiantly.

             I can remember when they couldn't come up with a mechanical means of harvesting tomatoes. But then somebody came up with a thicker skinned tomatoe, and they just went on from there.

             Still, there are people who insist that modern tomatoes don't taste as good as the old ones, so they're willing to pay a premium price for organically grown thin-skinned tomatoes.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 09 Nov 08 - 09:35 AM

No matter how much progress technology brings, there will always be tasks--and not just in agriculture--which cannot be done by machine.   And no latter-day Edison will change this.

So there ought to be a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants--and it should be done in tandem with raising the minimum wage.

But just making illegal immigrants legal will itself have the effect of raising wages for all workers in fields now with illegal workers--since they will not be able to be exploited as easily. As we've discussed before.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Riginslinger
Date: 09 Nov 08 - 10:13 AM

There probably are some things that will always demand human hands to build. Those kinds of products will simply have to cost the consumer more money. The solution should not be to scour the world for cheaper and cheaper labor.
                That's what has been happening, and advances in means of production have either not been used or have been discouraged.

                We'll see, however, how this economic downturn plays, as it relates to undocumented workers coming into the country to do work at below standard value.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 09 Nov 08 - 09:35 PM

"..undocumented workers coming into the country.."

I've already told you what effect the economic downturn is having on illegal immigration--and why--it's causing fewer to come in, obviously. That's not exactly a mystery.

I thought you already knew.

Why do you insist on treating it as if it is an open question?

If you have nothing more to add, you can always let the topic go. Though I like to see the title of the thread--and I think it's quite significant--it would not be a serious loss if it dropped off the list.

Subject: RE: BS: Tancredo: Democrats' Best Friend
From: Ron Davies
Date: 30 Jan 09 - 07:22 AM

Refresh--there's a lot more good information in this thread than in the Illegal Immigration thread--on the same topic.