BS: Canada Election

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 11:43 AM

http://www.thestar.com/opinion

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 11:44 AM

Toronto star
Oops

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 01:45 PM

That was me re Jack... dunno how I tossed my cookie.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Bob the Postman
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 06:31 PM

So what's the deal with this Jack Layton massage parlour would-be scandal? The Libs and Cons must have been keeping this one in reserve for years, just in case the great unwashed ever got so fed up with the both of them that they looked willing to give the NDP a half a chance at power. I hope this desperate ploy blows up in their free-enterprising faces and wins Layton the votes needed to put him over the top. I mean, even if the guy WAS there for a handjob, which he apparently wasn't, what the hell. Who cares? Compared with Contempt Of Parliament, getting a massage, happy ending or not, is SO no big deal.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Little Hawk
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 06:50 PM

Yeah, talk about a pathetic last ditch strategy to influence an election! How sad that the political party system draws this kind of competitive ugliness out of people.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 07:13 PM

Could the Sun media war room = CPC war election room?

Who benefits from the bogus Sun media Ignatieff Iraq picture and
Now the bogus Layton Sex-massage parlour rumour? Ummmm?

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Beer
Date: 30 Apr 11 - 10:43 PM

If this is the only ghost in the closet that can be found on Jack then he is a bigger man than most if not all of us. If it is true (and who cares.)I hope he got laid as well.
ad.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: GUEST,999
Date: 01 May 11 - 10:23 AM

I know a great joke about that.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Bob the Postman
Date: 01 May 11 - 10:49 AM

The desperation of a Smear Jack gambit makes you wonder if the whole "NDP surge" phenomenon isn't a hoax perpetrated by media puppets to scare us into voting Conservative and/or to split the BQ vote so that Conservatives can walk up the middle in Quebec.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 01 May 11 - 10:49 AM

Assorted last day stuff:

abacus poll

Nanos poll

drinking buddies


One perspective

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: bobad
Date: 01 May 11 - 11:34 AM

Who leaked the Jack Layton story?

While many in the media and from the left have hurled wild accusations against the Conservatives, who really leaked the Jack Layton bawdy house story?

Here's what Jonathan Kay, reporter from the National Post had to say on Twitter:

    For those who care, someone tried to shop me the Layton-massage story 2 yrs ago (without docs). It was a Liberal fixer

    To repeat: I have no idea who leaked the Layton/massage story this time around. But, if had to *guess*, I'd say the most desperate party

    Michael Ignatieff was *not* Lib leader when Layton story was shopped to me by Libs. They shopped it to me on Oct 12, 2008.

Apparently the Liberals tried to leak it last election to save Stephane Dion. This doesn't prove anything, but shows people need to be more careful throwing wild accusations around, especially those with the media. Could easily have been Liberals.

UPDATE: The plot thickens.

    Interestingly, the October 10 2008 Liberal Access-to-Information request includes alleged massage visits in 2003

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 01 May 11 - 12:33 PM

Just one more sleep.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 01 May 11 - 01:00 PM

Get Out And Vote

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 01 May 11 - 05:03 PM

gap-narrows

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 01 May 11 - 05:30 PM

"It's not impossible the NDP could come out tied in this election."

Hehehehee. How positively inane a statement.

Unless polls are taken in each riding and the results given for each riding, thereby actually indicating some semblence of reality, the polls are shite.

In any case, we will find out soon who we are are getting fucked over by for the next while.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 01 May 11 - 06:18 PM

The Old School Tie"

Oh the bright young man in the tight-buttoned suit
the light beams out from capped smiles to the shines
on their lick-spittle books
Oh these sharp young sparks with their fresh rosettes
Yeh, the artful ways that they promise the earth
to all suffragettes -
What they won't promise we don't know yet.
They say they're build - and shaping society
but we know they're just saving for their own
Safe home in politics
Anything goes: look at them run.

Come from every side, noses Pinocchio clean;
Lock in synchromesh, oil the wheels and the gears
of the party machine.
And the final goal is a cabinet seat...
in the trappings of power, the presumption to speak
for the man in the street.
Once they move in, they're in for good;
Yeh, once they get that bed made it's a
safe home in politics.
Jobs for the boys: look at them run.

There's just one thing none of us should forget:
a political man is just in it for the power
and the smell of sucess.
Sure, some start out as idealists -
pretty soon they all cop for ideal careers and
a safe home in politics,
a cusky job in politics;
look at them run.

The politicians fight it out on the couning tower
but they all agree not to rock the boat.
A safe home in politics
It's built on your vote

(Hammill Peter - The Old School Tie)

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: bobad
Date: 02 May 11 - 08:49 AM

OUR FINAL WORDS AND A FEW MORE NUMBERS - May 1, 2011

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION

"Prediction is very hard, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

These seat projections are based on EKOS' opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

[OTTAWA – May 1, 2011] As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgement, a few final comments are in order. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has now become a point of consensus. The final estimates of party support including today's final sample are 33.9 points for the Conservatives, 31.2 for the NDP, 21.0 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 6.0 for the Green Party.

When we adjust this based on an index which predicts the most likely to vote we arrive at 34.0 points for the Conservatives, 31.6 for the NDP, 20.8 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 5.9 for the Green Party.

As shocking as those numbers would have seemed just a few weeks ago, they are now more or less stable and undoubtedly accurate. The only real question remaining, and frankly this is more a matter of anecdotal curiosity at this stage, is how these translate into the new seat distribution in Canada's next parliament. Recognising the vagaries of sampling error, vote splitting and other factors, we are going to provide an estimate at the national level which is couched around a somewhat arbitrary band of uncertainty.

After the ballots are counted tomorrow, we expect to see the following:
1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats
2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats
3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats
4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats
5) GP: 1 seat

For those who would prefer a point estimate, just take the midpoint of the zones (e.g. 138 seats in the case of the Conservative Party).

Along with other Canadians, we will await the conclusion of what has been the most exciting electoral race in recent history. If the results resemble our forecast, we are in for another tumultuous period as the powers that be and public opinion try and decide what governing relationships this will actually mean.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Beer
Date: 02 May 11 - 09:29 AM

Wow!! This is interesting and wild.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 02 May 11 - 07:26 PM

Yes it is Beer. Gonna be very interesting over the next hours.

Those polls and predictions are ominous... I hope they are terribly wrong.

Fact is, like I said early on in this and other threads, peeps just think Iggy is a Yank business man that "came home" to fill his pockets and help his Yank relatives and buddies fill thier pockets.
I talked again today to a few elderly peeps that think this way. They are voting... though it doesn't matter shit here on accounta the riding's liberal will be elected. Dunno if that mentality will manifest itself in other ridings.

All I care is that Harper doesn't get a majority because I want medicare and someone with a heart to run this country.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Beer
Date: 02 May 11 - 08:16 PM

Here is something we can have fun with later this evening or just to have a closer look tomorrow.
Ad.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/map/fullscreen.html#/

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: bobad
Date: 02 May 11 - 10:08 PM

Looks like the nightmare scenario's coming down.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: ragdall
Date: 02 May 11 - 10:57 PM

Looks as if I'm not the only Canadian who was ticked about the Liberals forcing us to pay for another election?

It would be really great if representatives would concentrate on doing the work of the country, regardless of party, rather than using every opportunity to gain advantage in party politics.

rags

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Little Hawk
Date: 03 May 11 - 12:36 AM

I'm not a bit worried about "paying for another election". That's chickenfeed. I'm worried about paying the bills that will follow this election in the next few years.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Little Hawk
Date: 03 May 11 - 01:23 AM

We have the deeply sad situation in Canada that approximately 40% of the population can elect a majority government that would not be elected or supported by the other 60% of the population. That situation is undemocratic, unjust, and morally insupportable. It is created by the political party system itself, and that is the essential problem.

Political parties are self-aggrandizing competitive entities which seek power for its own sake, and they seek it selfishly and ruthlessly. They are, by definition, opposed to all other political parties, and seek to build themselve by destroying the other parties.

There is only one major party in this country that represents the "conservative" sector of the public, the 40% that I alluded to, and they have formed a majority in parliament. That is unjust.

There are 3 parties who represent about 54% of the public (Liberals, NDP, Green)...people would would definitely not vote Conservative, and the fact that there are 3 of them...each devoted to its own survival...means that 40% of the people in this country get a government which represents their approximate views after an election...and the other 60% do not.

Un-fucking-believable. And it has been happening ever since Reform and the PC's merged into a single party. Before that, they had no hope of winning an election, because THEIR constituency was split between 2 parties. The centre-left is now split between 3 parties, and the right walks away with a majority because of that, and ONLY because of that. It's what would happen in a USA election if the Democrats split into 2 or more parties. The Republicans would win a massive majority ever time.

If all political parties were abolished...if we were voting for independent, non-partisan individuals to form a parliament instead of voting for party blocs to jockey against one another in parliament, THEN we would have a working democracy in this country, one which would represent a majority of the people.

As it is, we have a travesty...a system which pretends to be representative, but which cannot be, given the present state of party politics in this country.

Political parties themselves are the disease. The only cure, as far as I can see, is to abolish them and vote for free individuals instead of political party members.

It's not going to happen. And I know it. Thus I am writing this merely to voice my own frustrations and my despair about the ruling system, rather like a caged dog who barks desperately at the world beyond his bars. And I know that too. There is nothing the dog can do. There is nothing most citizens can do. We are prisoners of an unworkable political system that does not represent us. Voting for political parties will only perpetuate the gross political injustice that has long infected and crippled this society and deprived us of any real possibility of truly representative government.

This is also true in other western democracies. Political parties are the death of real democracy, IMO, because they are inherently divisive and corrupt. They are organized gangs, out for their own gain. Like absolute monarchies, their day of tyrrany over the general public must end eventually...but I'm sorry to say it won't end during my lifetime. That's for sure. You know why? Because the political parties RUN this system, and they will not orchestrate their own demise...no more than a monarch would.

Only a complete social revolution of some kind (either peaceful or violent) can bring down a systemic tyranny like that. The ballot box can't do it, because the parties themselves control what happens AT the ballot box, and they will not legislate any change which surrenders their control.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 03 May 11 - 05:25 AM

By golly, the critter went an done it!

I had a feeling... Iggy... and the "forced" election... that's all people cared about.

Just shocking that the Bloc only took 4 ridings... shocking.

I'll bet NF is stunned. I wonder if they will get their power money backing now.

It's gonna be interesting to say the least.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Beer
Date: 03 May 11 - 07:33 AM

Will be tough times ahead for Newfoundland I's think Gnu.

I'm also stunned by the results here in my riding. The Bloc has been in power by a very wonderful person since 2004. I truly expected that Claude DeBellefeuille would fly through once more. I guess my vote for the first time since 2004 helped make a difference.

NDP.23,978
BLOC.18,182
CON.7,049
LIB.4,559

Check the map above and see all the Orange in Quebec.
ad.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 03 May 11 - 08:44 AM

Yes, Beer... looks like the late smear tactic against the NDP backfired and the voters decided to let Jack off.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: GUEST,bankley
Date: 03 May 11 - 08:58 AM

don't forget, we survived Brian Mulroney but the Progressive Conservative Party didn't

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Bob the Postman
Date: 03 May 11 - 10:36 AM

This is one of those good-news/bad-news scenarios. The bad news is that things will have to get a lot worse before they get better. The good news is that things just got a lot worse.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 03 May 11 - 11:58 AM

I don't know Gnu. There are many people Gentlemen (Club)in Quebec and outside who have had direct experiences in a massage bed?

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 03 May 11 - 01:25 PM

As I said in a pre-election post, Albertans could sit back and watch, the only question was whether Harper would get an unassailable majority.
He did.

Ignats essentially took the Liberals out of the game- no way he could garner the support needed. He has decided to go back to teaching; his sole asset is a mellifluous voice, I pity students who take his courses hoping to get information.

The NDP has a strong leader, I hope he will use his opposition position wisely.

The Bloc is dying; Quebecers see little future in that direction. The NDP took a large slice of the vote because the Conservatives, and to a lesser extent, the Liberals, are perceived as tools of the English-speaking establishment.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 03 May 11 - 01:30 PM

Harper has been lying to and putting the screws to Nfld since day one. At least now they know where they stand.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 03 May 11 - 01:40 PM

In the Red?

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 03 May 11 - 01:56 PM

I don't see how they are any worse off. They would have been facing Federal cuts in any event.   If a Conservative had been elected in the province, then Harper would have just had a scapegoat to deliver the bad news which was what John Crosby, in spite of all the good he did for the Province ended up being. The fiscal problems with Medicare are a light at the end of the tunnel. A light at the front of a massive, speeding train. Harper will suffer and lose when the bills come through and Newfoundlanders will be seen as opposing him from day one. It is quite possible that Newfoundlanders will take the Liberal Party in a whole new direction, away from being dominated by intellectuals and toward populism.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 03 May 11 - 04:10 PM

""The Bloc is dying; Quebecers see little future in that direction.""

If it were only that simple.

If Harper was wise, and can put the high of the "big win" aside, he would see this as an opportunity, a rare chance to reach out to the elected NDP (and the Quebec people who chose them in numbers) to bring Quebec back into Canada for the long term. But, often party politics and egos come before the interests of the nation. During the election he seemed to belittle Laytons statements that he wished to being Quebec into the constitution.


I suspect we have not seen the end of a desire to separate in Quebec by some, and at times many.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 03 May 11 - 04:17 PM

"If Harper was wise"

Ah!

If Harper was wise, he would have got a majority the last time.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: GUEST,999
Date: 03 May 11 - 04:27 PM

The people of Quebec--in larger numbers--have turned their backs on the Bloc, and rightfully so. We Speak Quebec has a hollow ring, even in this province. Duceppe has provided NO leadership, and a separate Quebec is not in the cards anytime soon. That is clear by a drop in seats from 56 to 4.

Poor people in Canada are about to take a hit like never before. The result I think will be violent. I hoped it would never come to that in my country--but after this election, there isn`t much left to revere about Canada. Big business has won. imo

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 03 May 11 - 04:39 PM

999... "Big business has won. imo"

Indeed. BUT, next election in four years... well, five on accounta Harper will break his own law... the NDP could actually take it. If they do, they might get us out of Afghanistan a few years after that.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 03 May 11 - 05:16 PM

I cant really understand where the Libs and NDPs were in voting in a manner that caused an election. The polls put Harper in the lead for some time, and he stayed there through the election. I suspect, knowing that, he was quite happy to have the election, not be seen to force it hmself and take a shot at a majority, which was in the cards as a possibility from day one of the election call.

Anyway as to Quebec. If the election were in reverse, and the west had few if any members in government, as Quebec has, how represented would they feel? I suspect Alberta can remember the isolation they felt in the Trudeau years? There was even a separation movement in that general area during the period. I sduspect the governing folks should not forget, and be sensative to, that feeling in a society.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Beer
Date: 03 May 11 - 05:38 PM

Now the jokes start.


SO - You think the NDP is surging ahead in the election campaign?????

Do not get too excited.

It is only premature eJackuLayton.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 03 May 11 - 07:28 PM

The Trudeau years were not anathema to all Albertans. Many of us who worked during that time in scientific endeavors remember them as happy, productive years.
The riding now held by Stephen Harper was represented by a Liberal.

Employment was high, and Alberta concerns capable of research- the major oil companies, who cooperated in exploration in new areas with PetroCanada- may have had mixed feelings, but benefitted from having their research dollars matched, and a chance to share in Arctic Islands, Arctic offshore and provincial offshore exploration that they felt they could not afford on their own. Oil sands research, research for construction of ice islands for Beaufort offshore drilling, detailed study of Canadian stratigraphy and paleontology with reference to resource exploration and other projects went forward during the Trudeau-Liberal years. Some of the work done during those years is now coming to fruition. Canada is now the main source of petroleum imported by the U. S., and Alberta benefits from exploration and engineering that began in those days.

Some small concerns, interested only in the quick buck and unable to mount useful research or pay for expensive exploration, complained bitterly because they were unable to profit from opportunities afforded by government support. Unfortunately it is the voice of these interests that is remembered.

When the support stopped, research conducted by the major companies left for the U. S. and UK. The federal and provincial labs that were left lost the cooperative efforts of the professionals in industry who either left or became redundant.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 03 May 11 - 08:33 PM

Q... and now, we... *I*... fear that will all be sold to The States, along with Medicare and other programs. Maybe it won't happen but Harper has "said it" in the past and Mulroney did it.

Funny, or not so, I said "The States"... I should have said China. Aren't they buying Alberta?

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Ed T
Date: 03 May 11 - 08:46 PM

Over 80 percent of the 60+ percent of the Quebec folks who voted did not vote for the Stephen Harpers government. Something to consider.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: GUEST
Date: 03 May 11 - 10:48 PM

Democracy certainly has failed us! 40% wanted Harper, 60% did not but he will now rule "his way"! Cretien used to brag about his four majorities as well, but the percentages were not with him either. Nobody in power ever wants to change a system that may limit their control. Some voted for Harper believing crap about him being able to fix the economy. The day after his election the stock market fell like a rock on a day that it showed a gain south of the border. Go figure!

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Sandy Mc Lean
Date: 03 May 11 - 11:36 PM

The above GUEST was me. My cookie was stolen and I suspect CSIS.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Little Hawk
Date: 04 May 11 - 12:08 AM

Chretien couldn't lose when the conservatives were split into 2 parties (Reform and PC). Harper can't lose when the centre-left is split into 3 parties (Liberal and NDP and Green)....not unless he screws up so totally that his own base abandons him en masse.

They both pretended to have a "mandate" when the peculiar nature of multiparty politics was working in their favour. They both lied about that. Neither one of them had the solid mandate they claimed to have.

No party that wins in this ridiculous first-past-the-post system has any motivation to change the way the system works, because it works to their advantage whenever they're winning. And only the winners have the power to change it!

That is a Catch-22. And it's a curse.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Charley Noble
Date: 04 May 11 - 09:41 AM

Share the pain!

In our last election we lost both houses in the Legislature and the Governor's office big time to conservative candidates.

Interesting that the NDP is now the second largest party in Canada.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Charmion
Date: 04 May 11 - 12:27 PM

Uhhh, not exactly, Charley; the NDP has the second-largest caucus in Parliament, which is not at all the same thing.

The Liberal Party of Canada is a massive old warhorse of an organization with tens of thousands of card-carrying members, many of them signed up for ten bucks a head as the riding associations cranked up for a party convention. Its tentacles reach into every city, town, village and wide spot on the highway from coast to coast to coast.

The NDP, on the other hand, is just emerging from 50 years of dependence on organized labour for both funding and popular support, which meant that it moved away from its rural origins in the Commonwealth Cooperative Federation to become an urban movement anchored in southern Ontario. It has very little grassroots support in Quebec, the North or in rural ridings anywhere in Canada.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: Little Hawk
Date: 04 May 11 - 01:41 PM

People tend to swing to the NDP in large numbers when they are absolutely fed up with both the Liberals and Conservatives. It's partly a protest vote. That happened in Ontario, for instance, when Bob Rae got elected premier. That does not translate into a large sustainable and longterm base of support for the NDP.

Give the Conservatives and/or the Liberals enough rope (time in power) and they will eventually hang themselves. If they succeed in hanging themselves simultaneously, the NDP can benefit greatly and come running up the middle between them.

But it tends to be a short term situation. If the NDP gets into office, the public's anger will soon shift toward them, and their base will shrink back down to a relatively small core of faithful NDP supporters. And then the Liberals or Conservatives will return to their usual primacy.

What really needs to be done is to merge the NDP and the Liberals into a single party. Sadly, though, I can't see it happening. They're both too stuck on their established identities to have the humility to do that. They both fear the loss of their historical identity in the process. Together, they could easily defeat the Conservatives. Apart, they are in a tragically weak position to do so.

Subject: RE: BS: Canada Election
From: gnu
Date: 04 May 11 - 02:21 PM

Bob Rae... Bob Rae... where have I heard that name before... OH, YEAH... the Liberals chose Iggy over him... twits.