BS: Can the LibDems Win?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Sorcha
Date: 06 May 10 - 06:40 PM

Are too! UK-er as opposed to US-er. Therefore a 'Yookie'

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 06 May 10 - 06:14 PM

I am not a yookie Sorcha :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Sorcha
Date: 06 May 10 - 06:09 PM

I'm sorry, Yookies. Put yer money under the mattress.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 06 May 10 - 06:04 PM

exit polls

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 06 May 10 - 05:58 PM

Tories predicted to be just short of a majority. How the f*** do they know that at 22:53 Uk time?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 06 May 10 - 05:27 PM

Well it looks like the Libs are the damp squibs ...

... How sad - i had hoped it might be their year.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 06 May 10 - 04:06 PM

"I hope the Conservatives win."

You sure, Doug? Here's what David Cameron had to say about health care, in the first of our TV debates. Way to the left of anything you'd get from Obama or the people I think you'd call "far left":

"I think the NHS is a wonderful, wonderful thing. What it did for my
family and for my son, I will never forget. I went from hospital to
hospital, A&Es in the middle of the night, sleeping in different wards
in different places. The dedication, and the vocation and the love
you get from people who work in the NHS just, I think, makes me
incredibly proud of this country, so thank you for all that you've
done.

"I think it is special, the NHS, and we made a special
exception of the NHS and said yes, there are going to have to be
difficult financial decisions elsewhere, but we think that the NHS
budget should grow in real terms, i.e., more than inflation, every
year under a Conservative government. My vision is that we
improve it, we expand it, we develop it, we make sure that it's got
more choice and more control for the patient."

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 06 May 10 - 03:41 PM

Bonzo
Some people have never voted before, so it helps to explain what to do.

Its Ok for me having voted for 46 years.

However in fairness, I explained to my daughter who is 18, what to do, as it was her first time.

I also spent time helping her to know the difference between the different parties and what they stood for.

I also explained that she was not voting for the prime minister and that she should be voting for the person who will serve our area best.

I gave her info on each candiddate and then explained that it was her decision who she voted for.

She took it all seriously and enjoyed her first time voting.

I asked her who she voted for and the bugger wouldn't tell me :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 06 May 10 - 01:42 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/first_time_voter/8518247.stm

I know that a lot of thick people will be voting, but this really takes the biscuit!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 06 May 10 - 07:04 AM

Whoever wins will need to do something about the utter peabrains at both Companies House and HM Revenue & Customs.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 06 May 10 - 04:19 AM

"More likely is a reform involving the Alternative Vote. That could come about even if the Tories formed a minority government, since in a hung parliament there would be a majority likely to support that, who could outvote the Tories and set up a referendum to bring it in."

I don't think that would really happen. The vast majority of bills are generally introduced by government ministers and in a Tory minority administration (bar possibly an Ulster Unionist) all the ministers would be Tories. The Tories point blank refuse electoral reform. Opposition members have an opportunity to propose Private Members Bills but in reality in the past only uncontroversial legislation ever proceeds to bill stage - though it can cause a caffufle right enough so can directly effect govt thinking. The problem for the opposition is that Labour propose the Alternative Vote system in their manifesto whereas the Lib Dems totally disagree and support the Single Transferable Vote system. So if a Lib Dem backbencher managed to introduce a private members bill it is unlikely they would get full Labour backing and vice-versa. I think the only way it would come about in the next session (unless there is a complete Tory u-turn) is if we have a Labour-Lib Dem coalition where the method of voting to be proposed is hammered out and agreed on right at the start of party negotiations. A Labour leader may be much more co-operative with the Lib Dems if the keys to No 10 are on offer - whereas as members of the opposition they might be far less liekly to vote for Xmas

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 06 May 10 - 02:54 AM

Thats good Dave. We can then stop subsidising you lot.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave MacKenzie
Date: 05 May 10 - 07:49 PM

In one way I hope the Conservatives win - from the way Cameron's been talking it'll mean the complete break up of the United Kingdom.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: DougR
Date: 05 May 10 - 07:47 PM

I hope the Conservatives win, and it looks like they may have a shot.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 05 May 10 - 03:48 PM

Well they've got a better chance than this lot ...

Poor poor knickers ...

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 May 10 - 02:54 PM

The only way PR could come would be if the Lid Dems held the balance between Labour and the Tories, dug their heels in, and got one of those parties to offer it in exchange for support.

More likely is a reform involving the Alternative Vote. That could come about even if the Tories formed a minority government, since in a hung parliament there would be a majority likely to support that, who could outvote the Tories and set up a referendum to bring it in.

And quite conceivably the Tories could offer this in exchange for L9b Dem support. After all they could still campaign for a No vote in such a referendum.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 05 May 10 - 02:25 PM

"If the UK wants PR (surely it does?) then Lib Dem is the only way. Lab & Con are never going to go along with that because they know they have so much to lose!"

Labour had a huge majority at Westminster and yet they introduced PR as the voting system in the devolved Scottish Parliament despite the fact that it was obviously against their interests to do so. Without PR the Labour Party would probably have had a permanent majority at Holyrood whereas they've had coalitions with the Lib Dems and now are the opposition party to the SNP govt. They also introduced PR in Wales where they are now in coalition with Plaid. Surely it will most likely be Labour, albeit with the Lib Dems nagging in their ears, who will eventually introduce it at Westminster too?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 10 - 12:41 PM

Even then it would not be sure. Smiler, Eg - 10 constituancies that all have a 40% vote for lib dem but 5 of them have a 50% vote for Labour and the other 5 have a 50% vote for Conservative - End result = 0 Lib Dems, 5 Labour and 5 Conservative. Yet the votes polled were 40%, 25%, 25 % as mentioned. Weird init!

Even with PR it means they would not have an overal majority.

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 05 May 10 - 12:26 PM

"Can the Lib/Dems win"

No, unless they get at least 40% of the vote and Labour 25% and Conservatives 25% or soemthing like that.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 May 10 - 07:20 AM

But the Tory party is. If they have a majority there won't be a referendum on changing the electoral system. If they don't have a majority, even if they are able to form a minority government they wouldn't be able to stop one being held. (Unless Labour members, elected on a promise of such a referendum by October next year, rat on that pledge, which is of course always quite possible.)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 10 - 07:04 AM

So why not let people decide that for themselves?

I'm not stopping them, Kevin:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:55 AM

"If the UK wants PR (surely it does?)" I'm not at all sure.

So why not let people decide that for themselves?

In any case PR is just one possible voting reform. At the very minimum a system with a chance for people to put candidates in order of preferance would ensure that people who most voters rejected would not get elected. That should see off the BNP pretty effectively.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Stu
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:40 AM

Don't forget the Tories unholy alliance with the Ulster Unionists - hardly the way to ensure the peace process continues without alienating even more republicans.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:22 AM

If the UK wants PR (surely it does?) I'm not at all sure, Jim. See why a couple of posts above.

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:16 AM

If the UK wants PR (surely it does?) then Lib Dem is the only way. Lab & Con are never going to go along with that because they know they have so much to lose!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Jim McLean
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:40 PM

If I lived in Scotland I'd be voting SNP, a party which would scrap Trident, abolish the House of Lords along with ID cards and all the redundant remnants of the Scottish Office. Fiscal autonomy would stop the argument regarding the Barnet formula and answer the English worry about Scottish MPs voting on English matters. I would suggest we remove the blue from the flag and leave the rest to Billy Bragg.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:34 PM

and, unfortunately, where we have proportional representation, we get the loony minorities represented in parliament. Some may think this is fair but to have an extemist of any nature sat in a position of power goes against the grain as much as the current system.

So, as always, I propose a benign dictatorship with me at the head...

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:15 PM

If you vote Liberal in a seat where Labour is the only party that can beat the Tory, you are helping keep "this unfair system". And the same applies if you vote Labour where the Liberal Democrat is the one who can beat the Tory.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:56 PM

"However, the only way to be rid of this unfair system is to vote lib as neither labour or tory have any intention of growing up and learning to cooperate in government with another party unless they have no choice."

History actually shows that to be incorrect though. They might be tediously slow to implement it UK wide but Labour now say they favour it and of course have already set up PR in Scotland and Wales for those elections. Labour would have been guaranteed probably an almost permanent majority at Holyrood with first past the post, and at the time had a huge majority at Westminster, yet dor the devolved elections they went for PR after discussions with the other parties etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:31 PM

If you vote Liberal in a seat where Labour is the only party that can beat the Tory, you are helping keep "this unfair system". And the same applies if you vote Labour where the Liberal Democrat is the one who can beat the Tory.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:25 PM

However, the only way to be rid of this unfair system is to vote lib as neither labour or tory have any intention of growing up and learning to cooperate in government with another party unless they have no choice.

PR is the publics only way to teach them to grow up.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:24 PM

So long as the Tories do not have an overall majority, there will be a majority in the House of Commons for giving people a chance to vote on changing the electoral system so that it will be impossible for any MP to be elected unless at least 50 per cent of the voters agreed to that happening.

Even if the Tories, who are against that, do manage to set up a minority government, they cannot stop that referendum happening.

That would mean that there will never again be a government elected on a derisory minority vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Mrs.Duck
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:08 PM

Although stranger things have happened, I can't see the Lib Dems winning. Unfortunately, with so many voters disatisfied with the current government, many will vote Lib Dem as a protest and in so doing give the Conservatives a better chance of winning. I live in a Labour stronghold so do not have that dilemma but do not relish the thought of another round of Tory leadership. I may not be a great fan of Brown but actually find him more genuine than Blair and certainly far better than Cameron and his ilk.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 04 May 10 - 03:57 PM

BBC calculator says - if 26% vote labour and 26% vote tory, and 38% vote liberal, Labour will have the most seats ...

How is this a democracy again?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 04 May 10 - 03:23 PM

I think that the Tories will get in and they'll go on and on and on ...until they're caught out in some fiddle or other and then at some indeterminate time in the far future New New Labour will get in and they'll go on and on and on until they're caught out in some fiddle or other ... and the the Tories will get in again until ... round and round and round and round ...

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 May 10 - 02:33 PM

Trouble is, whatever the polls say about the LibDems, they still need to actualy win seats. The present government were elected with a low vote count - but they won most seats and that is what counts.

Mind you, whoever we vote for, it's always the governemnt that gets in:-(

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 02:29 PM

Hi Jack

Osborne has appeared to have gone into hiding hasn't he??

I think Cameron has salted him away out of the clutches of the media !!

He hasn't been seen all that much here in his constituency either.

There is no doubt that he was found a very cushy safe seat here.....remember it was here that we had the "shennangins" of Neil Hamilton !!!! nuff said !!

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 02:22 PM

Hi Gervase

Thanks for pointing out that George Osborne didn't go to Eton.

I got that from the press. Just shows you can't believe everything - or is it anything you read in the press.

cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave MacKenzie
Date: 04 May 10 - 12:13 PM

"a Tory minority administration, a few seats short of a majority"

Is that a synonym for a few sandwiches short of a picnic?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Stu
Date: 04 May 10 - 12:09 PM

"I fail to understand your objection to a chap simply because he went to Eton - inverted snobbery of the worst kind!"

Possibly, but then it might give some insight into why Cameron and the invisible (for the duration of this campaign) Osborne feel the need to cuddle up to the positively nasty Polish Law and Justice Party (as well as other such right-wing looneys as the Latvian Fatherland).

Tories get in, we're fucked. Pure and simple.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 04 May 10 - 12:04 PM

Facebook poll currently showing the following ...

23%
Conservative
23%
Labour
36%
Liberal Democrat
10%
some other party
8%
Don't know

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Gervase
Date: 04 May 10 - 10:36 AM

...and on more than one occasion, by the look of that post! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Gervase
Date: 04 May 10 - 10:20 AM

George Osborne didn't go to Eton, he went to St Paul's. That's probably why he was called 'oik' by his Bullingdon chums, who dangled him by the ankles dangled him by the ankles until he yelled "I am a despicable c**t".
On that basis the poor chap deserves a sympathy vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 09:23 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs - PM
Date: 04 May 10 - 08:13 AM

< "I fail to understand your objection to a chap simply because he went to Eton - inverted snobbery of the worst kind!">

Hi bonzo

I don't object to Osborne because he comes from the same college as Cameron. That is just a co-incidence that sort of scrapes the icing off the cake.

I won't go into the reasons why I won't be voting for Osborne....but they are political not purely personal.

cheers

Mikel2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 09:17 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge - PM
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:58 PM

< " I quite like the idea of splitting the conservatives down the middle - I've got a chainsaw, two felling axes and a splitting axe.">

Hi Richard

I'll hold your coat.

FFOMAL......!!!

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 04 May 10 - 08:13 AM

I will be voting Lib Dem for EXACTLY the same reason as you - in my constituency we have Cameron's Eton chummy......Osborne !!

I fail to understand your objection to a chap simply because he went to Eton - inverted snobbery of the worst kind!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 04 May 10 - 07:44 AM

"In answer to the actual thread-title question ; Yes, there is an outside chance that they COULD !"

It seems to be a pretty slim outside chance though. The BBC site has a seat calculator and I put in 36.9% of the vote for the Lib Dems; 33.7% for the Conservatives; 25% for Labour and 4.3% for others. Incredibly enough on those figures it would still see Labour as the second biggest party on 204 seats with the Tories on 249 and Lib Dems some way back on 171.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: bubblyrat
Date: 04 May 10 - 07:15 AM

In answer to the actual thread-title question ; Yes, there is an outside chance that they COULD ! Those of the electorate who are likely to actually bother to USE their vote (which,in the interests of true democracy should,obviously,be compulsory ),are quite likely,in my opinion, to vote Lib Dem in order to show their contempt for, and dissatisfaction with,the other two major players.The extremist parties will also, I suspect,do much better than might otherwise have been expected,had the Blues and the Reds behaved with more selflessness,honesty,and decorum.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Jim McLean
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:43 AM

McGrath of Harlow, you were right about poiticians changing their mind. The following is an extract from the Scotsman newspaper:

Mr Clegg said at the weekend that it would be "preposterous" if a party which came third in votes continued to govern.

But yesterday, on a visit to Edinburgh, he said:

"If Labour does come third, people would find it inexplicable (that] Gordon Brown could carry on as prime minister. I will work with anyone who can deliver the greater fairness people want."

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:58 PM

I quite like the idea of splitting the conservatives down the middle - I've got a chainsaw, two felling axes and a splitting axe.