BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points

Subject: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Once Famous
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 05:58 PM

I read on Yahoo today a new poll by Time magazine has Bush ahead by 11 points.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:04 PM

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:49 PM

That will change. Kerry is fighting back. The numbers will swing back in his favor. Farenheit 9/11 will be released on VHS and DVD in a few weeks. All the Republicans who would not go to the theater will be going to Blocbuster and watching it in the privacy of their own home. You have to believe that the truth will come out and the Bush error, oops era, will come to an end.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,peedeecee
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:50 PM

Not only that, Michael Moore has two new books coming out in early October -- and one consists of letters written to him by the troops in Iraq.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Don Firth
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:56 PM

Last night, after the Republican Convention adjourned, Kerry hosed Bush and Cheney down pretty good. Kerry's problem so far is that he has been too damned polite. But this is likely to change.

Wait 'til the debates! Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!!!

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:05 PM

Kerry may be doing the right thing by waiting.....the public has SUCH a short attention span. You want them to remember the point you made YESTERDAY..

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:15 PM

AH, Ron, would that you be correct in your assesment.   I wonder.   People look at headlines, slogans, etc;.   Sad but true.

I am only hoping that we are not going to get a Nov or Oct. surprise as has happened---thinking of things like hostage releases, Bin Ladn happens to turn up or some such.

Proably the dirtiest campaign I can remember coming up===and so far Kerry is running a class act.   Sadly, so did Stevenson and so did McGovern, to name two.

Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:18 PM

They printed the results that way so Bush could add them up. He's ahead by two then. Kerry will make that up in no time.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:36 PM

First, I don't a poll taken so soon after the GOP convention with all its attendant free publicity has much validity.

Second, polls only reflect what the outcome would be if all the people surveyed actually voted.

The curious thing about this year's electorate is that those who like GWB don't like him with anything near the intensity of those who dislike him. And I firmly believe that this intense-dislike factor will result in more anti-Bush than pro-Bush folks actually going to the polls and voting.

I don't believe it's enough of a factor to overcome an 11% Bush lead in the polls, but if that lead shrinks to around 5% by election day, Kerry will win.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: SINSULL
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:46 PM

An observation on the Convention that I haven't heard before - it scares me.
Neither Here Nor There
Issue 109

A Brief Reaction to The Republican National Convention

Over the course of the past four days, Republican after Republican after Democrat (thank you, Zell Miller) has taken to the podium at Madison Square Garden to make sure this nation remembers that we were attacked on the morning of September 11th, 2001. They have reminded us, again and again, because in their eyes, since that awful day, President Bush has demonstrated the conviction, the determination and the fortitude to take the fight to the doorstep of our enemy, no matter the country where that doorstep might be found. America, they say, needs President Bush because he will not waver in the fight on terror and he will not rest until our country is free from the threat of attack.

Something struck me as I watched the Convention coverage on TV this week. In the days following September 11th, the President and his administration bombarded us with information implicating Osama bin Laden. This man, it was said, financed the attacks, was deeply involved in the logistical planning and nothing short of his capture or, even better, his death, would be an acceptable result of the manhunt upon which our armed forces were about to embark. "Dead or alive" was the refrain from the Oval Office. Afghanistan was invaded. Around-the-clock coverage of the decimation of Tora Bora flooded into our homes via satellite. Not a day went by without a possible bin Laden sighting or the capture of a high ranking associate, someone who would no doubt bring us that much closer to finding the monster behind it all.

Then things started to change.

Bin Laden was slowly phased out as the core issue, as a necessary goal, instead we were now hunting "terrorists." In time, we came to be told that it didn't really matter whether bin Laden was alive or dead, since we had done so much damage to the infrastructure of his murderous group. And this week, in New York, just a few miles from the hole in the ground that was the World Trade Center, not once did I hear the name bin Laden mentioned by a Convention speaker. Instead, the successes that are Afghanistan and Iraq were repeatedly referenced, evidence and justification for the assertion that George W. Bush has made this country safer and stronger than it was when he first took office. Saddam Hussein's name was front and center, his incarceration and impending trial a victory not only for the liberated peoples of Iraq but also for American liberty and safety. John Kerry's name was also on everyone's lips, and band-aids with Purple Heart decals were a hot fashion accessory, Kerr
y's war wounds having become an object of ridicule in Republican circles, ironic considering the combat records of the men leading the mocking. Nebulous plans for Social Security reform, expansion in the areas of private business and home ownership, and an increase in education funding were touted with little to no actual explanation of policy and/or funding. And blanket calls for inclusion and compassion rounded out the rhetoric, while simultaneously a platform of exclusion, bigotry and fear-mongering was endorsed.

Yet with all of this talk, with hours of speeches, his name was never mentioned. His deeds dominated this event and were the driving force behind its choice of location, but his name was never mentioned. His cohorts, the group he founded and funded, have since pulled off devastating attacks in Bali, Turkey, Spain and numerous other nations, but his name was never mentioned. He is still out there somewhere, and that's why his name was never mentioned. America's hunt for Osama bin Laden has disappeared from the realm of Republican discourse.

I sat in front of my television last night, watching our President and thinking, knowing I had to write something but not knowing what I would say. Then I thought about who else might be watching. In a safe house, in a mountain compound, in a supporter's city apartment, somewhere, anywhere, I pictured bin Laden, watching our President speak, while he wondered just what it will take to get his name back on the agenda.

More later
Sullivan

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:56 PM

Sullivan:   Just wait for a few days prior to the election. I am a cynic.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Once Famous
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 09:54 PM

It is true that this poll was taken right after the convention ended, so it figures to be somewhat skewered.

However, a Munsters festival on the TVLand cable channel should help swing it back the other way for Kerry.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:00 PM

As long as Howdy Doody isn't on at the same time.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:04 PM

MG: That was pretty darn good. LOL. Mostly because I wanted to be pissed off at you, and as I was composing a zinger to post here I burst out laughing. Thanks lots.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:33 PM

There's a rumour that the Yanks know where Osama is and are just waiting until later on in the campaign to nab him, to boost Bush. Does anyone know if there's anything in this, or is it a myth?

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 11:05 PM

If the Yanks know, have they told the Red Sox? I bet the Mets are in on it too.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: katlaughing
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 11:26 PM

Sins, excellent point and very well said. Thank you.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:08 AM

SINSULL, good eye.

"Then I thought about who else might be watching. In a safe house, in a mountain compound, in a supporter's city apartment, somewhere, anywhere, I pictured bin Laden, watching our President speak, while he wondered just what it will take to get his name back on the agenda."

This sends shivers up the spine and back down again.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:46 AM

It seems like Grok and Martin have run out of anything intelligent to say so they end up trading sophmoric barbs. Notice how it always has to do with bathroom humor? You guys overcompensating for being shortchanged below the belt?

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:57 AM

You seem to be overly worried about the exchange between Martin and me. Do you have issues? You seem to, because you follow others around--mostly guy others. And you still haven't learned to spell sophomoric you stunned asshole.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Little Hawk
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:59 AM

I think it's leftover trauma from childhood toilet training... :-)

So, Martin, are you saying that Bush has edged out Chongo at this point? Chongo says, "Don't count your bananas until you're back down the grapevine."

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: wysiwyg
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:02 AM

Yeah, OK, but is Bush's lead on being for or against forum moderation??????

~S~

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:18 AM

:)

How witty you are Grok!

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:21 AM

We aim to please. You aim too, please.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:35 AM

All I know is, Kerry's campaign against Dean looked dead, too. Dean led him by more than 11 points. He went entirely under the radar and destroyed Gep and Dean from behind the scenes. He's actually GOOD at campaigning, folks.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:38 AM

From the Bloomberg story reporting the poll:

Other nationwide polls show that Bush and Kerry remain in a statistical tie, as they have been since April. Bush held a 2 point lead over Kerry in a Zogby International poll of 1,001 voters Aug. 30-Sept. 2, within the 3.2 percent margin of error. In an American Research Group Inc. poll of 800 likely voters Aug. 30-Sept. 1, Bush and Kerry each received 47 percent.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 02:00 AM

Tom Clancy, in his better novels (the Jack Ryan ones), made the point that the Democrats and Reprobates, sorry, Republicans, usually get voted for by people whose minds are already made up. Elections are decided by that 10% group of 'uncommitted' voters. I doubt this election will be very different in that regard. The campaign leading to a win for Bush or Kerry will necessitate that sufficient numbers of undecideds have an issue over which to GET riled up within two days of the election. (Unfortunately, the Diebold votes are a wild card.) The Kerry crew needs to find a piece of information that is very damaging to Bush, and release that info with proof good enough to influence people before Bush and the gang have time to spin-control it. There is where victory resides, IMO.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: alanabit
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 04:03 AM

Bush "won" this election last year. However, the pendulum will swing back and the losses he will suffer in the Senate and House of Representatives could well strip him of most of his power for the last two years of his presidency. I am afraid that this current election always was over before it started.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 08:57 AM

Kerry's supporters are really in denial. The best news that the Kerry camp can come up with right now is that he might be "statistically tied". Or losing.

Neither of which shows that Kerry will win a race that was his to lose. Which he is. And may very well.

And Democrats have no one but themselves to blame for this, because it is the mainstream Dems who chose a candidate that can't even beat the most reviled president in memory, or the party that has had majority support among voters once since God knows when.

Doesn't matter. It is looking more and more like Bush will win. The Dems will blame Nader. And the world will be truly screwed by the "centrist" Democrats once again.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: alanabit
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:12 AM

The Americans have a choice between a Conservative and an Ultra Conservative. All Bush had to do to win, was to prove that he was more conservative than Kerry. That is what the current political reality in the US demands. Of course, voters should try to choose the lesser of two evils. I can understand why a lot of voters can't get too excited by it all though!

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:22 AM

Unless someone has a crystal ball, this discussion is nothing but guessing. This election certainly was not decided last year. The debates have not occured. There are many things that can happen over the next two months.   No one, especially the Kerry camp, is worrying over the recent polls. Everyone knew that Bush would spike after the convention.

Remember that these polls are based on voters who are likely to vote. There appear to be very view undecided voters at this point.   IF everyone who was eligible to vote went to the polls, Kerry would indeed win. Statistically there are more registered Democrats.   The big problem is that most people do not vote.   The issue will probably become which party can get the most voters to the polls, and how accurately the votes will be counted this time.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:57 AM

Debates may well never take place, as there is only a potential for them to be harmful for Bush. Why would Bush take that chance in what could be a close race.

The election is now a short two months, or a little over 8 weeks away. Polls now DO matter, especially if they are showing that Bush has come out of his convention with this kind of a lead. This could well mean that he is finally breaking away from Kerry, now that the voters are starting to pay attention.

If the economy doesn't do a major tank in the next two months, which looks likely at this point, and if the terrorists keep up their insane level of terrorist attacks in Israel, Iraq, and now Russia, which it appears almost a certainty, the American voter is going to stick with Bush, because truly, Kerry isn't a legitimate or authentic alternative for the majority of voters. His positions on the war on Iraq and the war on terror are nearly identical to Bush's. There are differences between him and Bush on the domestic agenda, but if people feel the economy isn't going to tank, with the current levels of terrorist attacks going on by the Muslim jihad terrorist movements, Bush is almost certainly a shoe-in at this point.

As usual, the Democrats are clueless about these realities. They'd rather talk about how mean the Republicans are to them, as if anyone gives a shit.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:08 PM

All the Democrats have to do is to make some ads from clips from the Daily Show.

Things like

Zell Miller saying anyone who calls our troups "occupiers" is unfit to lead the country with the Republican convention wildly applauding followed by George W Bush calling them occupiers three times.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:00 PM

GUEST,

The presidency is never the challenger's "to lose." it is always the incumbent's "to lose." The incumben has a massive advantage in American politics, where every utterance he makes is on the news. People say things like "why Isn't Kerry fighting back?" Well, of course he is, but the news is not reporting it. So Kerry may well lose, but don't try to rewrite history and claim he was ever LIKELY to have won.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Alice
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:09 PM

If you want to help Kerry win, do something.
Volunteer your help: John Kerry Campaign
Donate here:Democratic National Committee

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:42 PM

Guest, you may want to check your facts before you post.

There are 3 presidential and one vice-presidential debates scheduled for this year. The first one is scheduled for Sept.30, the second on Oct. 8, and the third on Oct. 13. The vice-presidents debate will be on Oct. 5.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 04:32 PM

Damn, Ron, you'll bugger things up by bringing facts into this.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 05:07 PM

Sorry Grok, I realize I am breaking Mudcat tradition!! :)

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 06:26 PM

Polls or not I strongly urge you all to read the Frank Rich piece in the Arts/Leisure section of the Sunday NY Times of 9/5/04.

Yes, Rich is half heartedly for Kerry, but wholeheartedly against Bush.   The piece is truly insightful regarding the character of Bush, the hype of the convention, and how some devout "cowards" who stayed out of service have made one who served with honor into a questionable figure---as Rich points out, not different than what W pulled on McCain in 2000, and dear old dad on Dukakis before that---though to dear old dad's credit he did serve and he pulled the dirty tricks in a different direction.

Read the piece and your eyes will open if they are not already


Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bobert
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 08:13 PM

Three polls in one week. Two sasy it's even, one says Bush is up by 11 points and all claim to be within 4% of being right...

Someone had better get a second opionion on the 4% because me and the Wes Ginny Slide Rule have figgured it out several ways and all three can't be correct...

Plus, as per usual, polls are absolutely rediculous...

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:21 PM

Yeah, Bobert, that's a good point. The only explanation they could make is that a huge shift occurred in the two days between the latest poll and the one before. But that isn't likely, and if it's true those kinds of shifts are rarely permanent.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: katlaughing
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:49 PM

Bill, thanks for the note about the article. Anyone who wants to may get past the NYTs' login by entering "mudcat5" as a member name and "mudcat" for the password. For those who don't want to do that, here is the piece Bill speaks of...well worth the read, imo:

© New York Times
Frank Rich

ONLY in an election year ruled by fiction could a sissy who used Daddy's connections to escape Vietnam turn an actual war hero into a girlie-man.

As we leave the scripted conventions behind us, that is the uber-scenario that has locked into place, brilliantly engineered by the president of the United States, with more than a little unwitting assistance from his opponent. It's a marvel, really. Even a $10,000 reward offered this year by Garry Trudeau couldn't smoke out a credible eyewitness to support George W. Bush's contention that he showed up to defend Alabama against the Viet Cong in 1972. Yet John F. Kerry, who without doubt shed his own blood and others' in the vicinity of the Mekong, not the Mississippi, is now the deserter and the wimp.

Don't believe anyone who says that this will soon fade, and that the election will henceforth turn on health-care policy or other wonkish debate. Any voter who's undecided by now in this polarized election isn't sitting around studying the fine points. In a time of fear, the only battle that matters is the broad-stroked cultural mano a mano over who's most macho. And so both parties built their weeklong infotainments on militarism and masculinity, from Mr. Kerry's toy-soldier "reporting for duty" salute in Boston to the special Madison Square Garden runway for Mr. Bush's acceptance speech, a giant phallus thrusting him into the nation's lap, or whatever. ("To me that says strength" is how his media adviser, Mark McKinnon, forecast the set's metaphorical impact to The Times.) Though pundits said that Republicans pushed moderates center stage last week to placate suburban swing voters, the real point was less to soften the president's Draconian image on abortion than to harden his manly bona fides. Hence Mr. Bush was fronted by a testosterone-heavy lineup led by a former mayor who did not dally to read a children's book on 9/11, a senator who served in the Hanoi Hilton rather than the "champagne unit" of the Texas Air National Guard, and a governor who can play the role of a warrior on screen more convincingly than can a former Andover cheerleader gallivanting on an aircraft carrier.

Not that Mr. Bush is ignorant of the ways of Hollywood. Unlike Mr. Kerry, whose show business pals he constantly derides, the president actually worked in the film business. In the 1980's he lined his pockets as a board member of Silver Screen, which financed Disney movies. Maybe he even picked up a few tricks of the trade along the way. The elevation of Mr. Bush to Rambo, as The New York Daily News dubbed him last weekend, and the concurrent demotion of Mr. Kerry to Corporal Klinger, is a major production, requiring meticulous preparation. It did not begin with the Swift Boat ads.

The early drafts of the script pre-date 9/11. In "A Charge to Keep," his 1999 campaign biography crafted by Karen Hughes, Mr. Bush implies that he just happened to slide on his own into one of the "several openings" for pilots in the Texas Air National Guard in 1968 and that he continued to fly with his unit for "several years" after his initial service. This is fantasy that went largely unchallenged until 9/11 subjected it to greater scrutiny. Since then, the mysterious gaps in the president's military résumé have been finessed by the dialogue and wardrobe departments, from the invocation of "Wanted: Dead or Alive" (whatever did happen to that varmint, Osama, anyway?) to the "Mission Accomplished" rollout of what an approving Wall Street Journal column described as his "hot" and "virile" flight suit. Of late, Mr. Bush's imagineers have publicized his proud possession of Saddam Hussein's captured pistol, which, in another of their efforts at phallic stagecraft, is said to be kept in the same study where the previous incumbent squandered his own weapon of masculinity on Monica Lewinsky.

But with the high stakes of an election at hand, it's not enough to stuff socks in the president's flight suit. Mr. Kerry must be turned into a girl. Such castration warfare has been a Republican staple ever since Michael Dukakis provided the opening by dressing up like Snoopy to ride a tank. We've had Bill Clinton vilified as the stooge of a harridan wife and Al Gore as the puppet of the makeover artist Naomi Wolf. But given his actual history on the field of battle, this year's Democratic standard bearer would, seemingly, be immune to such attacks, especially from the camp of a candidate whose most daring feat of physical courage was tearing down the Princeton goalposts.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Folkiedave
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 08:24 AM

I am starting to believe that George III was right and the Americans are not fit to govern themselves. :-)>

Oh! that we Brits were any better.

Dave

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,Frank
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 06:31 PM

Nobody has stated the obvious. Polls change not only from day to day but minute by minute. As Sam Hinton said about printed folk music, a poll is "a picture of a bird in flight".

It can swing wildly. By the time one is taken, the weather changes.

Frank

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 07:27 PM

Imagine that. From the "liberal media" no less.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,Jaze
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 07:44 PM

I doubt if Bush will debate Kerry unless Cheney can stand next to him.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bobert
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 08:11 PM

Hey, Bush has nuthin' to fear in debating Kerry. He lost three debates soundly to Gore and was declared the winner of 2 of the three by who?......... The media and a bunch of medai so called swing woters who watched on various stations in groups of 8 to 12 people... It was more rigged than TV wrestling...

Now today I'm listenin' to some talking head talkin' about how decievingly good Bush is at debating. Since when? There are at least 20 people I could name here at Mud cat who would kill him if the debate were hbeing judging impartially...

Nice to own the judges and fir the poop on that one only needs to follow the money... Bush has been very, very good to the media. Very good... Thay love him... Okay, maybe not all of them but the ones that don't like their jobs so they go along with the charade...

Bush is a very average debater, less than average president and even less than average when it come to morals... But now if you want to throw together a danged good party, he's "da man'!

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 08:25 PM

Again--best read the Rich article in the NY Times.   W can give a good presentation from prepared notes and limited questions.   Kerry is not a great orator and, sadly, does not come across as the "old down home boy" that W does.

Sad that politics has evolved to that claptrap and the people with thoughts---Stevenson, JFK, FDR, and keep going back are forgotten as are the thoughts and words of intelligent speakers.   CHurchill==you old bulldog---where are you when you are needed---Blair is not in your league either.


Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Little Hawk
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 09:05 PM

This just in: Chongo Chimp has edged out Bush by 3 points for the primate vote in the state of Ohio. I find this disappointing. Chongo ought to be leading both Bush and Kerry by a friggin' landslide. I am gonna have to talk to him about this. It's time to grab some grapevine and get serious!

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Alice
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 10:34 PM

As I saw on CSPAN today, Edwards said regarding the attack on Kerry during the GOP convention, -- what do they think, that John Kerry didn't get enough shrapnel wounds, that he should have had more? If you'd like to see a copy of the letter describing how Bush got out of Viet Nam duty and the payoff to keep insiders shut up, see Greg Palast's site, with a photocopy of the letter.
===================================================

STILL UNREPORTED: THE PAY-OFF IN BUSH AIR GUARD FIX

Saturday Aug 28, 2004 by Greg Palast
In 1968, former Congressman George Herbert Walker Bush of Texas, fresh
from voting to send other men's sons to Vietnam, enlisted his own son in
a very special affirmative action program, the 'champagne' unit of the
Texas Air National Guard.  There, Top Gun fighter pilot George Dubya was
assigned the dangerous job of protecting Houston from Vietcong air attack.
This week, former Lt. Governor Ben Barnes of Texas 'fessed up to pulling
the strings to keep Little George out of the jungle. "I got a young man
named George W. Bush into the Texas Air Guard - and I'm ashamed."
THE PAY-OFF

 That's far from the end of the story. In 1994, George W. Bush was
elected governor of Texas by a whisker. By that time, Barnes had left
office to become a big time corporate lobbyist. To an influence peddler
like Barnes, having damning information on a sitting governor is worth
its weight in gold – or, more precisely, there's a value in keeping the
info secret. 

Barnes appears to have made lucrative use of his knowledge of our
President's slithering out of the draft as a lever to protect a
multi-billion dollar contract for a client.  That's the information in a
confidential letter buried deep in the files of the US Justice
Department that fell into my hands at BBC television.


Here's what happened. Just after Bush's election, Barnes' client GTech
Corp., due to allegations of corruption, was about to lose its license
to print money: its ...Click here for full article
http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=365&row=0



Alice

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 10:51 PM

Way to go, Alice.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 11:02 PM

New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points:

The ONLY poll that counts is that on November 3, 2004.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 11:53 PM

Well, since the Swift Boat Ads were so effective, the Democrats should put ads out with this info. You gotta know your enemy to be able to fight him effectively.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 01:17 AM

As to the debates all of you are so certain will take place as given, here is some interesting reporting from today's NYT:

"Ken Mehlman, Bush's campaign manager, wouldn't be pinned down on a schedule for debates. Kerry has said he'll be in Coral Gables, Fla., on Sept. 30 for the first of three presidential debates proposed by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

``We look forward to these debates. We look forward to having a debate about debates. We will, in an appropriate time, which is shortly, talk about our intended participation,'' Mehlman told ABC's ``This Week.''

Kerry spokesman Joe Lockhart, appearing on the same program, shot back: ``Debates don't need to be debated. We don't need `intended.' If the president has an agenda that he can defend, show up at the debates.''

Doesn't sound all that encouraging to me. Like I said, Bush as the incumbent being this far ahead in the polls right now, has no reason to debate Kerry, and it does have the potential for going badly for Bush. Which is why I think there is a chance the Bush/Cheney team is going to bow out of the debates, and will ramp up the propaganda campaign, which is a much better tool for them, instead.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:02 AM

Bush can't speak English. It would be in his best interests to participate in the debates. If he gets to choose the translator, what's he got to lose? Nothing. He'll have every thing to gain.

For example, "What do you see as being a way to get Americans working again?"

Kerry: "Invest in our economy. Tax cuts for lower-income earners and the working poor will free money to restimulate a flagging economy."

Bush: "Give billions to Halliburton and hope that a few bucks trickle down to the slobs who voted for me."

Translator: "Invest in our economy. Tax cuts for lower-income earners and the working poor will free money to restimulate a flagging economy thus easing the burden on poor people."

THE WINNER: DUBYA.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Mr Red
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 07:35 AM

is that all he has in his head? Geeeeeeeeeeeeeezzz

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,Jaze
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 09:25 AM

Haven't there always been debates prior to the election? It seems to me there were. I don't think it would look good for Bush to decline. It might make some people think he has something to hide.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:46 AM

GUEST is a little excited.

First of all, Bush is not "this far ahead in the polls." He is ahead in a single poll.   Second, as many have said, complete refusal to participate in debates will be perceived as weakness, and Bush will not allow that.

What he may do is set the terms of the debate so they are most favorable to him. But he will not completely withdraw from them. If he does, there is a good chance he will lose the election.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 01:47 PM

Guest,

Again, you should do more research. The Bush campaign has named James Baker to head their debate team. They are committed to debate. The only question that the Bush campaign has put forth is speculation on whether there will be 2 or 3 presidential debates. Traditionally, candidates who are leading in the polls do not want to jeopardize their momentum. At the moment, all the debates are on the schedule.

You are correct, at least I think so, when you say that Bush stands to lose more by debating Kerry.

IF Bush were to pull out of the debates he would lose MORE ground by coming off as a coward who is afraid to stand up to the challenge. He may be stupid, but he is not that stupid.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: DougR
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:06 PM

Wow! One could read these posts and come to the conclusion that you folks don't like George Bush! Why doesn't someone suggest that Zogby, or even bettr Gallop, poll the Mudcat to see which candidate the Mudcat members favor?

My hunch is all of you would feel even BETTER about what the results of the November election is going to be.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: DougR
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:07 PM

Oh, and one more thing ...wonder why Kerry didn't get a 11 point boost from the Democratic conventiion?

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:11 PM

The "liberal" media??

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:28 PM

DougR,

Just a correction. An 11 point lead is not an 11 point bounce. If you are split 50-50 one week, then suddenly have a ten-point lead the next, you are at 55-45. That's a 5 point bounce.

Kerry got maybe a 3-point bounce, Bush got maybe a 5 point bounce if this poll can be trusted. That COULD be enough to win the election by, but don't make it out to be a resounding pump-up. There's plenty of time for shit to happen.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: DougR
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:45 PM

True, Nerd, but I just couldn't resist raining you the parade.

I was concerned that too many Mudcatters were getting so pumped up, they wouldn't have any energy left to celebrate if their guy wins or cry if he loses.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 04:07 PM

DougR, I hate to burst your bubble but pollsters were not expecting a dramatic bump in the numbers for either the Democratic or Republican convention. You are quoting some of the same "speak" that the conservative talk shows have been dishing out this week. Unfortunately, they aren't looking at the whole story.

This year, candidates were decided many months before either convention. This election is much different from previous elections in that there are fewer undecided voters. Bush has polarized voters, and any pollster will tell you that. It truly is too close to call.

Remember Michael Dukakis? After the 1988 Democratic Convention his numbers increased by 17%.   You can look up where he finished. In August 2000 Al Gore was looking at 39% rating in the polls compared to 53% for George W. Gore actually won the popular vote. And of course, we all remember President Dewey.

The interesting item is that Bush's bump was as high as it is. In normal years, you would have seen a higher post convention jump for either candidate, but as I pointed out above, there are reasons why that wasn't expected.   Bush's jump is aligned more with the failure of the Kerry campaign to get beyond Vietnam and get their message out. If anything, this poll is a wakeup call.   It is too early for Kerry to start picking out drapes for the White House and it is way to early for Bush to start picking out bands for the Inaugural Ball.`

Conservatives can enjoy this little moment, but we are only in the 5th inning of a 1 run ballgame.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 04:26 PM

Thing is, y'all forgetting--especially DougR--that Bush is going to lose in November. The American people love a winner, but he hasn't won ever. Not even in 2000. And he has proven himself to be a loser during his years in the White House. Economy shot, country nearing bankruptcy, theft, deceit, poor handling of things in Afghanistan and Iraq: hey, the guy is a loser, and IMO, enough Americans will see that to vote the piece of crap outta Washington.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Greg F.
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 05:42 PM

Thing you're forgettin' Grok, is that the Amerkun Peepul have largely gone brain dead.

And THAT'S a fact.

Keep dreamin'.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 06:17 PM

Bush need not pull out of the debates. "National security" can be cited as the cause for him cancelling, very easily.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 06:33 PM

And for those of you who are so certain of everything, the Bush campaign has not yet agreed to the dates set by the presidential debate commission.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 07:59 PM

They have agreed to debates, the dates are set by the commission, they have not agreed to whether it is 2 or 3 debates.

National Security?   Unless we are attacked again, it is hard to envision making security an issue. They would not have held conventions or any campaign appearances if that were an issue.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Peace
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 08:09 PM

Tuesday, September 7, 2004

Finally, Kerry answers Bush's attacks

By HELEN THOMAS
HEARST NEWSPAPERS

WASHINGTON -- Finally. At long last, Sen. John Kerry has found his voice on the campaign trail.
ABOUT FRIGGIN' TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From seattlepi.com


Kerry, previously cautious to the point of silence about President Bush's Iraq war, used the climax of the Republican National Convention to question Bush's fitness for office for "misleading our nation into war" with Iraq.

And it's about time.

Stung by the personal relentless targeted attacks by a raft of Republicans, and Sen. Zell Miller, a Georgia Democrat, Kerry has had it with the turn-the-other-cheek approach to this campaign. When he turned the other one, his opponents slapped it, too.

Kerry now must regret the obvious orders that went out to all the speakers at the Democratic National Convention in Boston a month ago to be nice and don't criticize Bush.

The president had a free ride until Thursday evening, just as he was accepting the Republican Party's nomination for a second term and criticizing Kerry for his Senate votes on domestic and foreign policy.

On this night, the peak of four days of Republican exultation in Madison Square Garden in New York, Kerry spoke at a rally in Springfield, Ohio. It was there that the Democrat finally unleashed.

Noting that Bush supporters had "attacked my patriotism and my fitness to serve as commander in chief" all week long, Kerry declared: "Well, here's my answer. I'm not going to have my commitment to defend this country questioned by those who refused to serve when they could have and by those who misled the nation into Iraq."

Kerry said Vice President Dick Cheney "even called me unfit for office last night (Wednesday night.) I'll leave it up to the voters whether five deferments makes someone more qualified to defend this nation than two tours of duty."

Cheney has explained that he sought those deferments during the Vietnam War because "I had other priorities."

Well, so did thousands of other young men who nevertheless were drafted or who volunteered for military service during that terrible war.

For his part, Bush -- the son of a prominent Texas congressman -- leaped to the head of the line of applicants to join the Texas Air National Guard and thus avoided duty in Vietnam.

I remember four years ago when Bush promised he was going to change the tone in Washington. He was looking for more civility.

Well, that was then and this is now, as evidenced by the disgraceful and false accusation leveled against Kerry by Bush's ardent supporters disguised as the swift-boat veterans.

In his Springfield, Ohio, remarks, Kerry gave another reason why he thought Bush was unfit to lead the nation. The president, according to his Democratic challenger, has been doing "nothing while this nation loses millions of jobs ... and letting 45 million Americans go without health care."

The Massachusetts senator, obviously angered by the vicious attacks aimed at him by GOP convention speakers, also accused Bush of being an unfit leader for "letting the Saudi royal family control our energy costs."

And he socked it to Cheney, former CEO of Halliburton, the Houston, Texas, oil services company, saying the vice president was "unfit" for "handing out billions of government contracts to Halliburton" where he still receives about $150,000 a year in deferred compensation and holds more than 433,000 stock options.

Bush led the nation into war against Iraq on grounds that Saddam Hussein had arsenals of weapons of mass destruction; that he had ties to the Al Qaida network and that Iraq was an imminent threat to this nation. None of those charges has proved to be true

With no apologies for shifting the rationale for the war, Bush now says he acted to defend the United States in the "war on terror." Even if Saddam Husseinan had no unconventional weapons, he could have produced them, in the president's view, and that was enough reason to invade.

Give me a break.

The blistering attacks on Kerry at the Republican convention and Kerry's decision to drop the mister-nice-guy routine point to a real fight for the presidency. Kerry is on the right track to question Bush's competency in light of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

It was inevitable that the president's unilateralist foreign policy would come up in the campaign dialogue, as it should.

Voters indicate in polls that they are more concerned with jobs and the economy than with the war in Iraq. Nonetheless, the war says more about our moral values and whether our elected leaders are accountable to the public for waging war for wrong reasons.

The election will be a referendum on Bush's foreign policy, which has cost the United States heavily in terms of its image in the world.

Critics say that the war in Iraq and his neglect of brokering peace in the Middle East has increased -- rather than lessened -- terrorism in that region and made us more vulnerable.

We look forward to the Bush-Kerry debates on that subject.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 08:24 PM

Debates or not---and I stand by my earlier post which saddens me. Hoping that Kerry will come on stronger.

Having Clinton in the hospital at this time is a blow to the campaign. If only Gore had not distanced himself from the Dems best vote getter and populist we would not be in this position.

Kerry, to his credit, is taking his advice and was hoping to have his persona present for the campaign. Best hope for fast healing for the fast food eater.

Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,brucie
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 08:31 PM

Sorry. The following was inserted by accident into the article.

ABOUT FRIGGIN' TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From seattlepi.com

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 10:41 PM

I'm feeling cynical tonight, and here is my prediction - Osama bin Laden will be "caught" days before the election, and the electorate will rally to the master manipulator just as he (Rove that is) planned. Doubt it? Remember, the New Republic reported (based on interviews with Pakistani Intelligence) that "High Value Targets" were being demanded by the Bush Admin. during the Dem. convention. Capture of the East Africa bomber was announced four hours before Kerry's acceptance speech. NOTHING is beneath Rove and his (their) lust for power.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:20 PM

Bush must try to win this election with tricks and subterfuge. He certainly can't do it on merit or intelligence. His trainers and handlers know that.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Wolfgang
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:55 AM

An outside view:

You don't have to be dumb to vote for Bush (Manchester Guardian)

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: muppett
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 09:05 AM

So what, polls often mean jack s**t

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 09:23 AM

The Communist Manifesto outsold that article, Wolfgang, and the philosophy just didn't work. Interesting reading, though.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,Larry K
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 10:38 AM

Here are the facts:

Poll       Dates      Bush      Kerry    Margin
CNN       9/3-9/5    52         45       7
Newsweek   9/2-9/3    52         41       11
Time       8/31-9/2   52         41       11
Zogby      8/30-9/2   46         43         3

There are three "legitimate" polls that show Bush leading by more than the margin of error.   Zogby has consistantly shown Bush lower than all other polls.   Zogby has also said that it was "Kerry's race to lose"   I am not sure if the Time or Zogby polls were done after or before BUsh's speech.

The question is why did Bush get a huge bounce when Kerry got little or no bounce?   All the talking heads said that Kerry got no bounce because everyone already had their mind made up.   They were proved wrong yet again.

I would contend that the republican convention has much more appeal to moderates and independents than the democratic convention.   Is there any democrat (other than Liebeman who was nowhere to be found at the convention) who appeals to moderates and independants like John McCain, or Rudy?   Throw in Arnold along with democrats Miller, Koch, and Silver.   We compare this with the democratic linup of Clinton, Gore, Dean, Sharpton, and Kucinich.    Be honest- which lineup do you think has more appeal for undecided?   Rudy, McCain, and Arnold will be very effective campaigners for republicans.

As someone above said, the only poll that matters is Nov 2.   The real question is turnout.   Who gets their people out.    Will the 4 million evangelicals that stayed home in 2000 vote this time or stay home again.   

Debates will be useless becasue of the format.   Both candidates will repeat their talking points because interruptions are not allowed.   We need Bill Oreilly as the moderator and make it a "no spin" debate.   Like him or not, he doesn't let either side just repeat their talking points.   Remember- Reagan got lost on AIA during the debate and it didn't matter- still clobbered Dukakis.   Funny- I don't remember seeing Dukakis as the Democratic convention.   I must have missed him.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 11:48 AM

Larry K - Bush did not get a "huge" bump. The spin doctors are making it sound like it's wrapped up, but the polls will probably change often in the next few months.

The evangelicals might turn out but so will all the other stay at homes on the left who are so angry at the incompetance in the White House.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,Larry K
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 01:57 PM

Ron- Bush went from 2 points behind before the convention started to eleven points ahead in two legitimate polls after the convention ended.    If that is not a huge jump (compared to Kerry who got 0 points in bump after the convention) than what do you define as a "huge bump"?

Before the convention, most "talking heads" and "experts" were prediciting no bump like Kerry or at most a 2%-4% lead for Bush after the convention.   I don't recall anyone talking about Bush leading by 11% after the convention.

Yes- this will fade and the race will get closer.    In the end it will still depend on turnout.    The real question for Kerry- Will the African American community turn out and continue to support him with over 90% of the vote.    There have been a lot of rumblings from African Americans about not taking their vote for granted.   Should "only" 80% support Kerry or a large number not show up- Kerry loses.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: DougR
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 02:10 PM

To your credit, Ron, no one can charge you of being inconsistent. To your dying day you will declare that Bush did not get a bounce in the polls despite reports to the contrary. Sometimes we want results that please us so bad we come to believe that is what we got.

Wolfgang: thanks for posting that column from The Guardian. It is so refreshing to see a columnist admit his political leanings.

And Grog: You continue to prove that you cannot be swayed by facts.

Greg F: you saw the Michael Moore movie didn't you? You share Moore's belief that the American people are dumb. Pathetic.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 02:36 PM

DougR - PAY ATTENTION!!!!!!!!   I NEVER said that Bush did not get a bump. I did say that 11% should not be considered HUGE, even if you are popping the cork on the champagne.

11% after a convention is not huge.   Clinton received a 13% boost in '92, Dukakis had 17% in '88. Compare the results. The polls do not matter. They are a snapshot of a moment in time.

As I said (although I am guessing you did not bother to read), the fact that Bush received even a 11% lead is more indidictive of the Kerry failure to generate the energy he needs to fight the lies that were being slung at him AND to get his message across.   Let's see what the polls say next weekend.

I don't know who is going to win this race. This is boiling down to politics. The kid gloves approach the Democrats used at their convention did not work. The mud slinging the Republicans used, did.   All bets are off.

By the way DougR, did you finally see Farenheit 9-11?

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 06:24 PM

DougR:

I have always admired that you are so calm. That is cool.

Yer friend,

GROG.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: DougR
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 07:44 PM

Ron: no, I have not seen the Michale Moore film, and there is an additonal verse to that message. I ain't gonna! I don't have to see a film that I know would infuriate me. That might cause me to disappoint my friend, GROG.

Eleven points isn't much, huh Ron? Well it is when your opponent got none at all after his convention it seems to me. You are the only one I have heard reporting that Kerry got any bounce in the polls at all by the way.

I think as the American voter learns more and more about Kerry and his legislative record, you will see a marked difference in the polls with Bush widening his lead considerably.

I'm not too surprised Kerry didn't gain much from the convention though. I watched the Democratic Convention as closely as I did the Republican one, and the Democratic one was DULL, DULL, DULL.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:05 PM

Obviously, beauty IS in the eye of the beholder.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:11 PM

DougR - it is painfully obvious that you are only listening or reading from one source. Rush Limbaugh was not going to be talking about it.

Kerry DID receive a bump - a baby bump by all reported polls. An ABC News/Washington Post poll after the Democratic showed a 4% bump for Kerry. Newseek also reported a 4% bump.

As for Bush, did you you happen to see this story from Gallup Polls. It was released YESTERDAY:
"The CNN/USA Today/Gallup post-Republican convention poll -- the first national poll conducted entirely after the completion of that convention -- shows George W. Bush getting a small increase in voter support. Bush's share of the vote among likely voters increased two percentage points, from 50% to 52%, while Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry's share dropped by an equal amount, in the two-way race. Bush now leads Kerry by 52% to 45% among likely voters, compared with a 50% to 47% lead for Bush prior to the convention. Bush maintains that same 52% to 45% margin when independent candidate Ralph Nader, who receives 1% support among likely voters, is included in the ballot question.

Notably, this is the first time Bush has had a lead over Kerry beyond the poll's margin of error since Kerry's surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses propelled him to his party's nomination."

No, 11 points is not much.

DougR - you may be doing cartwheels over LAST WEEKS "11 point" lead, but if you would truly open your eyes and not blindly follow, you would see that the polls are meaningless.

As for not seeing Moore's film, yes it might infuriate you. It may even cause you to think, and I can see where that might scare you. It is hard for some people to admit they are wrong. Denial is a strong motivator. I guess you are comfortable with your decision and we are all happy for you.   

However, if you continue to critique something you haven't seen, you are only talking out of your butt.

Democratic convention was dull to you?   True, the Democrats weren't lieing and calling names like the Republicans.    There is only one comparison. The Republican keynote speaker was Zell Miller. The Democratic keynote speaker was Barack Obama.   Even you could not dare to compare a last gasp speech by a fading politician with an ax to grind with the brilliant and motivating words of a young politician who is going to bring needed change to his country.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:21 PM

Two things:

Once again, even the "huge" bounce you guys are talking about is about 5 points, not 11. The bounce is a change in level of support, not in your lead. So in historical context, a 5 point bounce is small.

Second, the 11 point polls are almost certainly off. Post-convention "bounce" has to be measured a few days after the convention, or it's meaningless. All the claims that Kerry got "no bounce" were based on polls done days after the convention ended. Then suddenly and suspiciously, two media conglomerates decide to do a poll DSURING the Republican convention and report it as if it's the same as the post-Democratic convention polls. Hmmm... So take the CNN poll. That's about a two-point bounce from their last estimate. About the same as Kerry's bounce. And less than any incumbent OR any Republican has ever received.

More from Salon:

The overblown Bush bounce

The lights inside Madison Square Garden had barely been shut off late last week when Time and Newsweek magazines both unveiled new polls declaring that George W. Bush had blazed ahead to a double-digit lead in the presidential race. While some Kerry supporters were surely deflated by the news, others were skeptical, noting that it would be nearly impossible to meaningfully assess the effect of the Republican Convention before the holiday weekend. (We won't bother speculating whether Time and Newsweek were simply rushing to weigh in first on the expected Bush bounce, or whether their Bush-friendly numbers had anything to do with the "liberal" mainstream media that conservatives keep griping about.)

Over at Donkey Rising, Ruy Teixeira says today's new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is vindication for those who were more prepared to buy a Labor Day vacation package to Florida than they were Friday's headline poll numbers.

Teixeira notes that today's is the first poll that truly measures Bush's bounce -- a modest two-point one, among registered and likely voters alike -- and that the minor gain actually doesn't look so rosy for Bush when put into historical perspective.

"Bush's 2-point bounce from his convention (which, remember, is defined as the change in a candidate's level of support, not in margin) is the worst ever received by an incumbent president, regardless of party, and the worst ever received by a Republican candidate, whether incumbent or not. In 2000, Bush received an 8-point bounce. And even his hapless father received a 5-point bounce in 1992."

The new survey does reflect some favorable results for the Bush campaign: For example, the typically gloomy-faced Vice President Cheney is now viewed "slightly more positively" than before the convention, rising four points to 48 percent of voters who think of him "favorably." But the Gallup poll also shows that the Democratic gathering in Boston was more effective in persuading Americans:

"Forty-one percent of Americans say what they saw or read of the Republican convention makes them more likely to support Bush, while 38% say less likely. Americans were slightly more enthusiastic about the Democratic convention, as 44% said it made them more likely to vote for Kerry, and 30% said less likely. That 41% figure for the Republican convention is actually the lowest Gallup has measured dating back to the 1984 Democratic convention."

Apparently, Americans didn't much care for the dark musings of Sen. Zell Miller, or the rest of the GOP attacks leveled at Kerry from the GOP stage in Manhattan.

"Half the public thought the Republicans 'spent too much time criticizing the Democrats' at their convention, while 39% thought the Republicans 'achieved the right balance between criticizing the Democrats and saying positive things about themselves.'

"Similarly, 52% of Americans say the Republican Party has attacked John Kerry unfairly, compared with 48% who said this before the Republican convention."

The last time a GOP get-together was rated more negatively in tone than this one? Late August of 1992, according to Gallup, when 56 percent of surveyed voters were turned off by Republican rancor -- and the first incumbent President Bush was on his way to losing to Bill Clinton.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:22 PM

And, I add here, that conventions are nothing but shows anymore---sadly. So, watching a maniac on the style of Hitler (Miller) (who probably needs some medication) compared to an Obama---intelligent and well spoken seems no contest.

Sadly, however, in our TV and headline oriented world this might well be a problem. Depth vs anger/paranoia ala Super market checkout mags might sell the viewing audience that never knew what a convention was about. It was not about a TV show.




Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:32 PM

Conventions are nothing more than shows because the expanded primaries take all the guess work out of it. It is highly unlikely that you will see a convention that goes to a second ballot ever again. The Democrats took the highroad and kept the name calling at bay. The Republicans were up to the usual brand of mud slinging.   No wonder it is a mess, but then again more people watch pro-wresting as opposed to PBS.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:38 PM

Well Put, Ron. The Dems took the high road.    I am afraid that in this day of Hype, Headlines, and Hysterics the Republicans low road garnered them votes. Not mine. But, I would not have wanted the Dems to anything differently---but, what do I know. I liked Stevenson and look where that went.

I suppose Bill Clinton may well be the best campaigner of all---and he will probably be out of it.

Bill Hahn