BS: Tories just short of a majority

Subject: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 06 May 10 - 05:53 PM

How the F*** do they know that already? time 22:53 UK time

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 06 May 10 - 06:04 PM

exit polls

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Gervase
Date: 06 May 10 - 07:06 PM

Chicken gizzards.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: mousethief
Date: 06 May 10 - 10:45 PM

Tea leaves.

If they do fall short of a majority who will they form a coalition government with? Labour? LibDems? BNP?

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: GUEST,mark-s(on the road)
Date: 06 May 10 - 11:53 PM

Just heard they might have a hung parliament in England.
Wow - you Brits are tough.
Wonder how we arrange something like that here!
Mark (now waiting for a knock on the door from the thought police)

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 07 May 10 - 04:39 AM

"If they do fall short of a majority who will they form a coalition government with? Labour? LibDems? BNP?"

BNP don't come into it as they have no MPs. Lib Dems would normally slide more towards Labour and the Tories have said they wouldn't countenance electoral reform so that looks unlikely. Outside of the various Ulster Unionists I can't really see who else would work with the Tories and it is unlikely that they would have a majority even with DUP support! Even though they are Labour's main rivals in Scotland I can't envisage the Scottish nationalists backing the Tories. Scoland has so turned its back on the Tories that Salmond surely couldn't countenance backing them and he has said they would vote on issues rather than go into any coalition. So I can't see the Tories getting a majority though it looks unlikely that any Lab-Lib coalition would have a majority either. Most likely eventual scenario if the Tories can't get the Lib_Dems to back them is perhaps Cameron running a minority govt!

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 07 May 10 - 04:50 AM

Blue suit on today!!

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: theleveller
Date: 07 May 10 - 05:13 AM

Well, looks like no-one won, but at least the Spawn of She-Devil Thatcher aren't going to get a working majority so they're unlikely to get the most repulsive of their policies through. Gordon Brown has the right to try to form a government first, if he can form an alliance with the Lib Dems. Watch this space!

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 07 May 10 - 06:24 AM

So far Old Etonians + Irish lickspittles (various) 300
Lab + Lib/Dem 303

So it all comes down to what the rag tag and bobtail will do - and most of them look pretty unlikely to fancy being "Dave"'s bumboys.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: peregrina
Date: 07 May 10 - 06:28 AM

constitutional convention (according to the papers) is that if there's a hung parliament, the sitting government stays, it's not the newcomer-with-most-seats-short-of-majority

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Les in Chorlton
Date: 07 May 10 - 06:40 AM

As a member of the Labour Party who recognises that we have lost the respect and trust of lots of previous voters I am heartened that people didn't return the Tories to power and did not choose the Lib Dems much either.

What happens now will be a bit interesting

L in C

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Leadfingers
Date: 07 May 10 - 06:43 AM

MOST voters were in favour of a Hung Parliament - And MOST voters think Hung is the same as Hanged !

But at least Nazi Nick got a bloody nose !

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: theleveller
Date: 07 May 10 - 06:53 AM

"But at least Nazi Nick got a bloody nose ! "

As did the other neo-nazis, UKIP (quite literally in one case!)

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 07 May 10 - 06:58 AM

Bear in mind that the Tory share of the vote only increased by 3.9%

The Lib Dem share went up by 1%

So for David Cameron and all his supporters to talk about the resounding will of the public etc is a pack of lies.

The Facts .. so far

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: bubblyrat
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:24 AM

The Labour Party do NOT have the right to try to form a government first. That right belongs to the Conservative Party,who have won both the most seats and the largest percentage of the vote.However,they can only form a majority government IF they promise to A) govern in the interests of the country and B) promise to attend to both national AND Liberal Democrat issues regarding the efficacy of the current parliamentary voting system,in which case Mr Clegg,the Lib/Dem leader,has intimated that he might be amenable to reaching some sort of political accord or alliance.
                Mr Clegg ( I don't know him personally,thus I don't call him "Nick",as it would be both rude and presumptuous )has already indicated ,on TV earlier this morning,that he is sticking to his principle of putting himself and his party in the position of supporting,or at least being prepared to be approached by,the party that gains or has gained the most votes, which in this instance is undeniably the Conservative party.
                   Mr Brown will doubtless try to do his utmost to remain as Prime Minister,and is unlikely to resign,however it seems likely that the final arbiter in this instance will be Her Majesty The Queen (God Bless Her),who will, presumably,ask him to state whether or not he is able to form a credible,workable,and legitimate government ; since it appears to be about 99% certain that he will have to answer "No", then that should be the end of that.
                Since we now have a "Hung" ,or as others euphemistically call it, "Balanced" parliament, it is very likely that another election will be called,perhaps within the next two years. Under those circumstances,the Liberal Democrats will,with an eye to future public opinion,be very cautious about just what they are prepared to offer or concede IF any agreement with the Conservatives is in fact reached. We live in interesting times !!

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Howard Jones
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:33 AM

I'm not sure that's correct. The Conservatives have the most votes and the most seats, so arguably (and the other parties are arguing) they have a mandate, but they don't have the parliamentary arithmetic to form a government without some help. As I understand it, Gordon Brown is still the Prime Minister and has the right to try to form a new government. If he thinks he can command a majority in Parliament, he can carry on, until he's overturned by a vote of no confidence. However, he may decide he's got no chance, and resign. In either case the Conservatives could then try to form a government, and would themselves face the risk of a vote of no confidence. If it emerges that no one can command a working majority, we'll face another election.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:35 AM

Constitutional convention allows Brown to have the first go.

Clegg is playing hard to get.

The Tories will not accept Cleggs Demands.

But he will tease Labour until they offer a range of concessions that he is prepared to accept.

Ultimately, Brown will form a Government with Clegg, and the next election will be PR.

Then we can begin the business of democracy.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Murray MacLeod
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:36 AM

It's all down to the Queen now, basically ...

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: theleveller
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:39 AM

"however it seems likely that the final arbiter in this instance will be Her Majesty The Queen (God Bless Her),"

What a complete load of bollocks - old Lizzie Windsor has absolutely no say in the governance of this country (thankfully) and is just a useless anachronism - despite what her idiot son might think. What century are you living in, bubblyrat?

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:44 AM

it seems likely that the final arbiter in this instance will be Her Majesty The Queen

So it all could hinge on whether a rich woman with about as much idea of what goes in real life as I have of life in the Kalahari? Good grief. What a pity I am too old to get the next boat to Australia. Still, seeing as I am half Polish and don't really belong here, according to some people, I could always be forcibly re-patriated...

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: theleveller
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:49 AM

Just been talking to my son who's doing a history and politics degree and we agree that there will most likely be another election within 12 months.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Charley Noble
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:55 AM

Maybe we should send Bill Clinton over to mediate a grand coalition government.

Cheerily,
Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 07 May 10 - 07:55 AM

"The Labour Party do NOT have the right to try to form a government first. That right belongs to the Conservative Party,who have won both the most seats and the largest percentage of the vote."

That is an opinion but that is all it is. Convention is that Brown as incumbant has the right to attempt to form a govt. The problem for him is that Clegg isn't playing ball with that - and how could he after he's already expressed his opinion that the party with the most seats should go first? So Brown can't initially form a govt if the Lib Dems won't talk but that doesn't mean he does not have the right to attempt it. No doubt if Clegg can't work with the Tories he may then go back to Labour without losing face with the electorate over his comments so far.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 07 May 10 - 08:09 AM

Clegg is just playing hard to get. He knows Brown needs him and vice versa.

Its a political Passo Doble - Clegg flirts with Cameron to increase Browns desire, but he's always looking over his shoulder ...

... The question is whether Brown has the balls to go up and 'win him back'.

Brown and cameron are both salivating at the thought, but balancing it with a 'you ain't all that ...' attitude.

I hope they don't show it till after the watershed ...

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 07 May 10 - 09:11 AM

Ratty, you display your ignorance. Constitutionally the convention is clear. The sitting PM has the first go. If he fails then the wily old constitutional lawyer on the gold chair, her maj (who has consistently shown better political nous than the parties, apart from her perfectly correct views about the church of Diana the Martyr in which she failed to grasp the stupid sentimentality about the "people's princess") should send for the person she judges most likely to be able to form a government - but for over 50 years (I'd have to look up the date) that crown prerogative has been exercised only on advice and not as a matter of political judgment.

IMHO Clegg has now shown himself to be slimy and unprincipled public schoolboy (from Westminster) and if he buys into being "Dave"'s bumboy he will destroy the LibDems. He may have done it already.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 07 May 10 - 09:18 AM

Richard - its a choice of the tories or Labour for clegg, and no matter which way he turns the losing side will make your complaint.

And anyone else in his position would have to make the same choice.

His circumstances say nothing about his character.

He will fall in with labour, of that there is very little doubt, as his demands will be too much for the tories to stomach.

But you can't expect him to give Brown what he wants without making him work for it.

You watch how Slimy Gordon gets when he starts comes to Woo ... that will be equally unpalatable if not more so as he has considerably less charisma ...

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Bob the Postman
Date: 07 May 10 - 09:29 AM

Clegg will not have to deliver his party to Cameron if several of his elected MPs deliver themselves. But if some LibDems look like crossing Clegg might think it expedient to keep his caucus intact by allying his party with the Conservatives. Could work the other way around, of course, but why would a self-interested unprincipled LibDem up-and-comer (I assume there must be one or two like that) want to hitch himself to Brown's tattered coat-tails?

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Les in Chorlton
Date: 07 May 10 - 09:36 AM

If the Libs and Labour fail to makea deal Cameron could form a minority Govt and dare the rest to vote him down. The wouldn't do it straight away and whenever they did he would call another election and .....................................

L in C

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Emma B
Date: 07 May 10 - 09:37 AM

Mini-lecture: A hung Parliament explained

Professor Robert Hazell, Director of the Constitution Unit in UCL's School of Political Science, explains what a hung Parliament means for the UK including the role of a constitutional monarchy

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 07 May 10 - 10:38 AM

So it all could hinge on whether a rich woman with about as much idea of what goes in real life as I have of life in the Kalahari? Good grief. What a pity I am too old to get the next boat to Australia. Still, seeing as I am half Polish and don't really belong here, according to some people, I could always be forcibly re-patriated...


Inverted snobbery - 14 years transportation!

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 May 10 - 11:09 AM

That'll probably see me through the next lot Bonzo:-)

But it's nowt to do with inverted snobbery. I am a proper snob and know I am far better than you...

:D (eG)

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: mousethief
Date: 07 May 10 - 11:51 AM

This is all fascinating to an American like me since our systems are so very different. Perhaps to my shame this is the first time I've really paid attention to British elections. It's been a great education.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: GUEST,999
Date: 07 May 10 - 11:57 AM

`Maybe we should send Bill Clinton over to mediate a grand coalition government.`

Send Monica, she`ll change more votes.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 07 May 10 - 12:57 PM

The LDs are kissing Cameron's arse already, maybe they'd kiss Clinton's dick as well.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 07 May 10 - 01:08 PM

Well done "Dave", you converted a 28 point lead in the polls to proof that two thirds of the country don't want you or the rest of the Bullingdon club.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: GUEST,Paco O'Barmy
Date: 07 May 10 - 01:11 PM

Tee hee Hee! Bye bye Gordon. Maybe I wont have to buy the PC 'corrected' version of the Oxford English Dictionary after all. Tee hee hee et al.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Paul Burke
Date: 07 May 10 - 01:23 PM

There are two choices that amount to one:

Libs support Labour. Majority paper thin assuming SDLP/ Alliance/ Green/ Plaid/ Scot Nats support Labour and DUP support Tories. Coalition will break up on budget.

Libs support Tories. Majority of about a hundred, fairly secure, but coalition breaks up on budget.

The best the Libs can hope for is to force through some electoral reform as part of a deal, but it's unlikely that any coalition will be stable enough to see it into law.

If we'd had full PR (seats allocated according to vote share), the result might have looked something like (using figures from mid- afternoon):

Con   234
Lab   185
Lib   148
SNP    12
DUP    5
UKIP   20
BNP    11
Green   6
Plaid   5
Sinn F 4
SDLP    3
Alli    1
UCUNF   3
Trad U 1

And, perhaps oddly, the result would have been very similar if the regions England, Scotland, Wales and NI had counted their proportions separately, though NI would have been less well represented overall.

It seems that in this case, all else being equal, the Liberals could have chosen a stable coalition with either party, and the presence of the extreme nutters would have been annoying and distasteful, but little more.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Teribus
Date: 07 May 10 - 01:24 PM

OK Richard now tell us how much of the country does not want the unelected and obviously unelecatable Gordon Brown and ZANULiebour.

What was it according to Lox's BBC facts:

29% of the vote and they lost 91 seats. Hardly a ringing endorsement is it.

No I hope that Gordon does form his minority Government, or even better forms another Lib-Lab Pact. It won't last long, a matter of months, after all they got us into this mess they should stew in it a while longer, it should be quite amusing to see the lib-Dems floundering about with real problems to solve, something that their party has not had to do for almost a century, and something that none of their reduced Parliamentary Party is actually capable of doing. The fights, the squabbling and the incompetence will return a Conservative Government with a working majority sooner rather than later particularly if Gordon of Cartoon insists on remaining at the helm.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Les in Chorlton
Date: 07 May 10 - 01:40 PM

Please re-arrange this sentence:

"The fights, the squabbling and the incompetence will return a Conservative Government "

Best wishes

L in C#

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: mousethief
Date: 07 May 10 - 02:06 PM

The LDs are kissing Cameron's arse already, maybe they'd kiss Clinton's dick as well.

And history tells us he'd like that.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 May 10 - 02:24 PM

I did the PR stats as well but decided that some of the minority parties would probably have had more because, in a PR scenario, they would have fielded more candidates. I think it would have to be linked to the constituencies where candidates were fielded. We would, therefore and in my opinion, need a higher deposit and a higher percentage at which the deposit is refunded. If, for instance, I could get 650 freinds (chance would be a fine thing!) to stand in every constituency I would bve almost sure to get some seats! I think some very careful thought needs to be put in to the reforms that are required.

Like I keep pluggung. Benign dictatirship is FAR better and simpler. Me at the head of course:-)

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: MikeL2
Date: 07 May 10 - 02:29 PM

hi dave

Rest easy !!! The Queen has no responsibilty in this. It is completely left to the politions.

When they have decided between them what the have to do the person and party(ies)selected will be invited by Her Majesty to be formally recognised.

As I understand it it 25th May has been set aside for this formality but I hope that the politicians can sort themselves out quickly and get on with the job.

In the meantime Gordon Brown and the Labour Party will act as temporary government.

So your lack of knowledge about the Kalahari will not be reqired....lol

cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: MikeL2
Date: 07 May 10 - 02:39 PM

hi

Now that the dust is settling one thing comes over very clearly to me....the TV debates and most of the high profile publicity made hardly any difference in the last month's run up to the election.

Even Brown's gaff with the Duffy woman did not deter her constituency ( Rochdale) from voting for Labour.

Makes you wonder don't it????

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 07 May 10 - 02:43 PM

Its really simple folks.

The libs are teasing Labour to force Brown to make the first offer BEFORE they negotiate.

That offer, already on the table, is to immediately enact PR.

The Government will not last long, but it will last long enough to get PR through.

SNP and Plaid Cymru will support PR

It will go through.

The current tory party will not agree to it.

But Cameron knows that if he doesn't agree to it, it will go through anyway under lib lab pact.

It will save Lab and Lib Asses at the next election and will result in parties having to learn how to share power because the "threat" of a hung parliament will become the norm.

No more elected dictatorships.

No more unjust wars.

Fingers crosssed.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: MikeL2
Date: 07 May 10 - 03:02 PM

hi

Cameron said he would consider a referendum on political reform but did not explain what he meant by that.

We know that when politician's either avoid or are vague about something it is just the same as lying about promising to do it.

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Anne Lister
Date: 07 May 10 - 03:37 PM

What Cameron said as far as I heard it was that he would set up an all party committee of inquiry into PR - not the same thing at all as a referendum.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 07 May 10 - 03:40 PM

Actually, Terry, in the face of a one-sided press (gosh, are their proprietors rich? Did they want government by the rich for the rich?) Labour and Gordon Brown did very well to reduce a 28 point lead to the about 6% swing seen. It demonstrates the danger of press control. Still, I suppose it might give "Dave" the honour (dubious looking at the content of the channel) of being the first UK PM named for a TV channel. Nearly as squeaky-clean as Berlusconi then.

Buggered if I can see what's wrong with calling a bigot a bigot.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Paul Burke
Date: 07 May 10 - 03:44 PM

As I said, Dave, all else being equal. The advantage FPTP has is exclusion of distasteful minorities, the price being the exclusion of constructive minorities. It has also probably inhibited the development of any radical left alternative, while allowing New Labour to shuffle rightwards without any rein to pull it back.

I don't think the electoral system should be designed to keep out minorities whether good or bad; what's needed is the political vision that leaves the ultras unattractive. And there's no incentive for politicians to even try to do that with the present system.

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: Lox
Date: 07 May 10 - 04:05 PM

FPTP encourages far right parties as it contributes to the feeling of being disenfranchised that drives people into the hands of parties like the BNP

Subject: RE: BS: Tories just short of a majority
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 May 10 - 04:39 PM

It doesn't require the go-ahead of David Cameron for the majority of MPs, who were elected on manifestos including electoral reform, to legislate for a binding referendum on making the electoral system fairer. After all, they outnumber the Tories.

This is a different matter from who, if anybody, is able to set up a viable administration.