BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 07 Aug 14 - 04:36 AM

What a vile ignorant woman Coulter is.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Greg F.
Date: 07 Aug 14 - 08:44 AM

What a vile ignorant woman Coulter is.

That's being kind, and there's plenty more TeaPublican slimeballs just as bad or worse where she comes from.


Don't know if the bacterium sickens rats or not or fleas or not

Yup! Kills the rats, too, so the fleas go to humans for a meal. It also eventually kills the fleas.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 07 Aug 14 - 12:39 PM

Comparisons between bubonic plague, a bacterial disease carried by fleas, and ebola, transmitted by a virus carried in bodily fluids, are tenuous.

Ebola is believed to be reservoired in fruit bats; fluids from the bats on fruit are capable of transmitting the virus; moreover the virus affects many animals, including other primates, antelopes, porcupines, rodents, dogs, pigs and other animals.

Eating "bush meat" can transmit fluids containing the virus. Some cultures eat fruit bats (Guinea has banned consumption).

It is possible that birds harbored the virus in the past, and this may be so today (David Sanders, Purdue University). The virus enters human cells in much the same way that similar viruses enter bird cells.

Thomas Monath, Harvard University School of Public Health, has suggested that the virus may be a mutation from a non-pathogenic one from insects, and that this might be the source of the infection in bats. The disease was first detected in Central Africa in 1976.

There may be other theories.

The potential for the use of the virus in bioterrorism worries defense experts.

"Ebola's deadly Jump from Animal to Animal," Discovery News, Jul. 30, 2014.

With a physician in the family, interested in the outbreak, I try to keep up with reports, accounting for my repeated posts.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 07 Aug 14 - 03:32 PM

Keep posting. Nice to have someone with medical ken rather than journalism in the thread

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Janie
Date: 07 Aug 14 - 09:25 PM

Thanks Greg. I wasn't patient enough to get clear about that on my own dime.

Not suggesting that Ebola is the same as bubonic plaque. What they do have in common, as is the case with other diseases, is they are zoonotic. The published interview I linked to came about in response to this terrible outbreak of Ebola, but looked at a broader picture also. For me, it provided both context and additional perspective and 'food for thought.' Did not mean for it to be thread drift.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Aug 14 - 07:19 PM

Its seems that Greg took my sarcasm literally and brought away the opposite message but such is the internet.

There are a few inaccuracies regarding Ebola carriers. Carriers are some primates, humans and bats. What ever feeds of infected humans is not automatically going to spread the contagion forward.


There are always holocaust deniers of every stripe. I am not a journalism however I will do my level headed best to speak of the common sense issues;

What to do:

Preparations similar to hurricane preparedness will do no harm.

The limited outbreaks that may happen in the US will be isolated and controlled ten times better than a poor country. At worst it could decimate a population instead of halve it.

More dangerous than limited outbreaks are the unintended consequences that arise from personnel that either can not do there work or intentionally quit. Once an absentee rate of 25% is reached many systems and institutions begin to fail. Transportation, nuclear facilities, police, truckers, grocery and utilities are but a few examples of the vulnerabilities in our society that we rely upon to run smoothly. More lives can be lost to these institutions failing than to infection alone.

'Unintended consequences' is what media must limit while still providing awareness and helpful direction.

Not since 1914 has a pandemic of magnitude hit the world. Please do not argue the merits of AIDS being a pandemic, it is, however it does not kill in 18 days.

I can not forgive the inhuman rants of a Coulter or Ingram however a more subtle message that can be gleaned is that Hollywood movies Contagion and Outbreak are not an accurate representation of your experience of a pandemic in the United States.


When I was born this world supported nearly 3 billion People. Today we have over 7 billion people. It is not unreasonable to foresee populations return to the good old days. Once India and China must reckon with Ebola it is possible a level of preparedness will result in losses of 1 in 10 which is the definition of "decimated".

That concludes my common sense remarks.







Now for full goose bonker remarks:

I wonder if our collective fascination with the zombie apocalypse phenomenon was but a foreshadowing of our future.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Aug 14 - 08:38 PM

Janie, David Q. also said verbatim on npr that he thinks the cat is already out of the bag.

It is the NIH that deserves virtually all the credit for medical breakthroughs from MD to Malaria. We know some of the people involved in the malarial cures.

Capitalism is late to the party, steals someone's date, takes their money and brags about their conquest.

The only breakthroughs the March of Dimes created came from the NIH but they never tell the public that truth.



Dear Mr. Richard Bridge,
Were you possibly a proof reader for the New York Times?
If so, did they welcome your strict standards or sigh in exasperation? (smile)

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 11 Aug 14 - 12:09 AM

So should we just give up all of our rights now, so government can protect us from ebola? Should SWAT teams kill those who refuse to take the tobacco company vaccines? Can we give Obama a Nobel Prize for Medicine now that he's decided to fight the spread of ebola by opening the US/Mexican border to contagious people? Should we canonize him?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Greg F.
Date: 11 Aug 14 - 09:51 AM

Its seems that Greg took my sarcasm literally and brought away the opposite message

Not at all - just commenting on some of the OTHER greatest hits of Bachman, Palin Overdrive.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 11 Aug 14 - 12:48 PM

Thanks must be given to the drug companies who set up production facilities and rush the latest approved vaccines and medicines to market.
Their cooperation with and support of medical research is needed; it should be encouraged.

They make a profit, but that is the system the world over and is not likely to change.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 18 Aug 14 - 10:59 AM

Nigeria has sent it to the United Arab Emirates...

Also, the death rate for this outbreak is really, really low, for Ebola. Even with the new numbers it's still under .6 - almost a coin flip.

Wonder what human experimental trials in the middle of an epidemic will do for medical ethics... which would be worse, waiting till it's known to be safe, or trying to save all those folks without knowing side- or after-effects? Is this how the strain mutates to become airborne?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Aug 14 - 01:15 PM

There's a song about it finally!

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 20 Aug 14 - 01:06 PM

Yesterday's numbers:

·         Suspected and Confirmed Case Count:         2240
·         Suspected Case Deaths:         1229
·         Laboratory Confirmed Cases:        1383


So, is that a.54 death rate, a .62 death rate, or a .89 death rate?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 20 Aug 14 - 03:55 PM

if the 1383 is counted in 2240 i would call it .54 although there may be other ways of computing...

there was some awful raid where people stole blood-stained mattresses from some clinic and other supplies and they are afraid this could have very bad consequences. One thing we surely could do is give them plastic mattress covers or even big garbage bags as well as all our old sheets etc. cluttering up our linen closets. One thing we can not do as Americans any more (american being very inclusive word) is get stuff from point a to point b. surely there are ways.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Charmion
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 12:24 PM

I don't think West Africa lacks bed linen or plastic sheeting, mg. The entire region is, however, pitifully short of sound infrastructure (e.g., roads for transport trucks to roll on) and competent, credible public authorities with the influence and resources rquired to do what's needful.

Sending stuff (that isn't requested drugs and other medical supplies) to the epidemic zone just results in stacks of goods lying around in port cities. The Red Cross usually asks for money -- lots of it -- so the people on the ground can buy from local sources.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 12:36 PM

I suspect they lack almost everything in some dire places. If there were sufficient coverings, why were mattresses soaked with blood? I know they prefer money but we have huge amounts of useful things that could be transported...maybe not by truck. Maybe part of the way by donkey or by porters. And whatever is languishing in port cities should be distributed to poor people in port cities if it can't be taken further. I am sure they would find ways to keep it going further and further inland.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 03:18 PM

here is some shipping from new york to west africa. http://globalcitynyc.com/2012/10/15/west-african-new-yorkers-ship-large-goods-and-profits-across-atlantic/

it is done all the time. people find ways to get it to destinations..never underestimate the power of the human spirit...never say never...never say we can only move stuff by air and helicopter in a disaster..there are never going to be enough. When Katrina came they waited for 4 helicopters when they were surrounded by pretty shallow water that swift boat veterans were prevented from going in for rescuing people and bringing supplies. When Haiti had its earthquake we were so close to US landmass..oh dear the docks are wrecked..get it there anyway..send a zodiac with a couple of people and as much water as can be loaded and say that further supplies are on the boat...every able bodied person there will start commandeering small boats and building rafts and swimming to tow whatever back. there are sometimes animals that can be used..if they have a supply of newfoundland dogs..who knows..donkeys, mules, llamas, camels, water buffalo, dogs..we do not have to think only in US terms..rickshaws...wheelbarrows, backpacks..all can and will be used. it was awful watching fukishima surrounded by water and they were not using it..at least that is how it appeared. get stuff close by and people there will figure out how to get it further. And how to use those mounds of clothes people are so worried about. They can distribute them on site, they can see that they get taken further in, they can be used to stuff furniture and quilts, used as diapers, bandages, rugs. Do not spend one second worried that a wedding dress will make it into the mix as did somewhere...Guatamala..people have worried about that for years. Some bride was probably very happy.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 04:03 PM

Just on RTE news: The Health Service Executive of Ireland is examining a possible case of Ebola in Co Donegal.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 11:19 PM

Yeah, there are "possible" cases in a lot of places, as lots of people have traveled to West Africa and then get (most likely ramdomly or at least not Ebola-ly) sick later. I hope people assume that they should be quarantined until proven otherwise rather than the other way around...

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 22 Aug 14 - 03:45 AM

Well, the case is that of a building contractor who worked in Sierra Leone. He died shortly after his return, it was the funeral director who brought the body to Letterkenny general hospital.

Probably a case of better safe than sorry. No mention of the funeral director getting quarantined after handling the body.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 22 Aug 14 - 11:52 AM

Why would you bring a body to a hospital..autopsy perhaps..but still that does not make sense...

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Aug 14 - 12:09 PM

Can they stop people making international flights in that transit section when you are out of one country and not yet in another, for a month (or even the original 40 days) of quarantine? With instant whisking to hospital in isolated van at first fever?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 05:52 PM

This week's numbers, I've been gone:

Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3069 (137% of last week's)
Suspected Case Deaths: 1552 (126%)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1752 (127%)
Death rate .85 to .51, not changing much. But the outbreak is months old, and the numbers went up about a third in the last week or so, that can't be good.

How does one calculate the death rate from these numbers, which are from the CDC website?

A week ago the numbers were:

Suspected and Confirmed Case Count:         2240
Suspected Case Deaths:         1229
Laboratory Confirmed Cases:       1383
And my question had been, So, is that a.54 death rate, a .62 death rate, or a .89 death rate?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 07:01 PM

All cases now it seems traced back to the funeral of a "traditional healer" - and possibly a single zoonotic source (maybe). Over 300 mutations since this outbreak started. My fear is of this being as nasty as the medieval Black Deaths/plagues - which halved the population of Europe and might have killed 200 million - not least in that I am far from clear that pneumonic transmission can conclusively be ruled out and the survival period of the virus outside a host can be up to 50 days at 4 degrees Centigrade.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 07:21 PM

I think things can never be ruled out when it comes to epidemics and viruses..oh you can't get it by kissing, oh you can't get it from mosquitos, or whatever. Viruses are smarter than us by far.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 11:35 PM

No, they are just tiny and have very short generations and mutate like crazy. They have no intention or intelligence... unfortunately, or they could be bargained with. This strain of Ebola does not appear to be airborne, so far.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Rumncoke
Date: 03 Sep 14 - 01:42 PM

I was just making coffee and turned on the BBC radio 4 news. It was reported that a nurse who had been airlifted home and was on a new drug has now recovered and left hospital. He has no plans to return to Africa - and as his passport was one of the things incinerated in an effort to destroy all possible sources of infection it will be a while before he can go far at all.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 09 Sep 14 - 12:08 PM

New numbers as of end of Aug:

Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3707
Suspected Case Deaths: 1848
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2106

Death rate .88 to .57.

And the numbers are climbing more steeply.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 09 Sep 14 - 10:21 PM

Looks exponential to me. Wait for the lift-off in the numbers of Nigerian cases.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 05:54 AM

From: Rumncoke
Date: 03 Sep 14 - 01:42 PM

I was just making coffee and turned on the BBC radio 4 news. It was reported that a nurse who had been airlifted home and was on a new drug has now recovered and left hospital. He has no plans to return to Africa - and as his passport was one of the things incinerated in an effort to destroy all possible sources of infection it will be a while before he can go far at all.

An update on that:


William Pooley : I am going back to Sierra Leone

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 12:03 PM

Wow. Does survival give you immunity?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 12:05 PM

Apparently "probably" and if so, "probably" only to the particular strain of Ebola you survived.

Blicky

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 07:11 PM

This is an eye-opener about how difficult it's going to be to stop this spreading.

infection by doorknob

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 11 Sep 14 - 12:24 PM

Remember, not airborne doesn't mean not easily transmissible!

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 12:33 PM

From the below article:

At this point, the number of people infected is doubling approximately every three weeks, leading some epidemiologists to project between 77,000 and 277,000 cases by the end of 2014.

Blicky to whole article: Click.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 12:38 PM

Another snippet: Every mechanism we have for caring—touching, holding, feeding, playing, warming, comforting, caressing—every mechanism that we use to bind us to our families and our neighbors, is preyed upon by Ebola.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Rahere
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 12:48 PM

Mrzzy, I know this can be fixating, but keep a balance. Simply to project a particular exponentiality presumes a homogenous population, unreactive to the problem until its too late. In this instance, the fear dynamic is important, but is not the only one: there is also a counter-dynamic in the conspiracy theorists on the ground, denying the disease and making themselves prime candidates to become victims.
Another important vector which seems to be under control is international transport, without it being readily available it might be a concern, but as it is, possible victims are being identified before they contaminate others.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 09:52 PM

I disagree that all caring is done through touch. There is radio, i ternet, letters, gifts, phoning, visiting through glass barriers, shouting from a safe distancd..some of these options not available in dire poverty of course...prayer vigils,.group singing, drums, etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 20 Sep 14 - 01:04 PM

Right. Your child is ill, go drum but don't touch their forehead.

I don't see that, somehow, without a lot more education, and a lot of those sterile-ish gowns, gloves and masks.

International transport isn't really a problem, you aren't contagious before you have symptoms (thank you mother nature and lady luck), and it isn't airborne anyway (thank you mother nature and lady luck again).

Yet.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Sep 14 - 11:37 PM

Interesting article here...

If there can be a faint silver lining to this outbreak, it's that researchers have been able to study the evolution of the virus in a way no previous Ebola epidemic has allowed. With thousands of cases documented to date, investigators have been able to track mutations in the virus' RNA genome—and they found hundreds of mutations just in viruses examined before the publication of a paper in Science in August. In a tragic footnote, five of the authors of this paper died of Ebola during this outbreak.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Sep 14 - 11:41 PM

Latest numbers from the CDC, updated 9/11:

Total Case Count: 5347
Total Deaths: 2630
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3095

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 23 Sep 14 - 03:20 AM

I'll believe the Nigerian outbreak is contained when one can trust ANYTHING said by the Nigerian authorities.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 23 Sep 14 - 03:36 PM

Also skeptical.

It only takes one traveller. The emergency section of the Royal Alexandra in Edmonton, Alberta was closed for a time because of a suspected case (travel history and clinical condition was suggestive).
Thankfully, it was not Ebola.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 23 Sep 14 - 09:43 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=0

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 25 Sep 14 - 04:47 PM

Lots of data < href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/23/the-data-behind-why-this-is-the-biggest-ebola-outbreak-ever">here. Amazingly low death rate, really, in this particular outbreak, apparently, well, under 80%.

You have almost a chance in 5 of surviving, rather than less than 1 in 10.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 25 Sep 14 - 04:48 PM

oops
Lots of data here.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 26 Sep 14 - 02:32 PM

Early August:
Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3069 (137% of last week's)
Suspected Case Deaths: 1552 (126%)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1752 (127%)

End of Aug:
Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3707 (120%)
Suspected Case Deaths: 1848 (120%)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2106 (134%)

Nearing end of Sep:
Total Case Count: 6263 (170% of last month's, over twice a month's before)
Total Deaths: 2917 (160% / almost twice)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3487 (165% / very nearly exactly twice)

My friend who'd lost his niece has now lost 2 niblings and his sister.

Anybody else know anybody from Guinea, Sierra Leone or Liberia?

Also, does the US have a special responsibility for Liberia, do you think?

Is it time to declare martial law, barricade everybody and just take over? I don't mean the US, I mean the world, especially the Guineans, Sierra Leonians and Liberians, but also Ivorians, Malians, Senegalese, and Guinea-Bissauans. Anybody with a border on the 3 affected countries.

And I reiterate the harm that calling all people from Africa Africans instead of Liberians, Kenyans or what have you - now some are afraid of people from Kenya, which is I think farther from Sierra Leone than the East Coast of the US.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 26 Sep 14 - 08:05 PM

Hopefully, a vaccine in early 2015.

Obama has joined in calling for action; I hope it will be swift, but much complacency.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 29 Sep 14 - 05:41 PM

3 days later:
•Total Case Count: 6574, up 311, just over 100 people a day
•Total Deaths: 3091, up 174, not quite 100 people a day, high death% of those 311 though
•Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3626, 139, only 40+ a day...


Is it time to declare martial law, barricade everybody and just take over? I don't mean the US, I mean the world, especially the Guineans, Sierra Leonians and Liberians, but also Ivorians, Malians, Senegalese, and Guinea-Bissauans. Anybody with a border on the 3 affected countries.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 29 Sep 14 - 06:58 PM

Another important vector which seems to be under control is international transport, without it being readily available it might be a concern, but as it is, possible victims are being identified before they contaminate others.

I wouldn't count on it. Flu epidemics spread at the same speed now as they did 100 years ago. Fast unchecked transport makes no difference, so slowing it down or monitoring it won't help.