BS: UK immigration too high?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Paco O'Barmy
Date: 25 Oct 09 - 06:25 PM

Oh, 300 by the way.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 12:52 AM

Paco, I provided some details above of the diversity of people we have in my village. At the university at which I mostly teach the vast preponderance of students are not eligible to join the BNP under its current constitution, and on the bus from such teaching to the train I am usually the only person who would be so eligible.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 03:26 AM

How stupid and pointless to say that immigration is below population increase.
Unless it is the only factor, OF COURSE IT IS!

Look at this month's population graph from ONS. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pproj1009.pdf
Figure 4 shows the highest and lowest future population rise for various factors. On the minimal reasonable assumption for immigration based on the best and most up to date figures, it is shooting up.

Who else apart from you thinks that is OK?
Our 3 main parties agree on little, but they agree immigration is too high. Most of the population do too. It seems everyone does except you. I have asked several times if you know of one credible individual who agrees with you.
Silence.
You have a mental block on this and it is pointless arguing with you.

Re controls, the numbers entering across beaches is minute and negligible. Immigrants come in through air and sea ports.
We should invest a little more on controls there and implement a quota system based on the numbers leaving.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 04:39 AM

You know perfectly well I was referring to the difference between births and deaths.

Equally you know perfectly well that it became a given of this thread long ago that opinion was not the issue, but that the facts were.

I have in the past hesitated to join Royston in calling you a liar, but this time you have condemned yourself. You refer to "the best and most up to date figures". The document you link to is dated this month, but it is, as it says, based on 2008 figures, ever since when immigration has been falling.

What it does show, however, is the alarming PSA ratio - which on their figures shows a very adverse trend - as I predicted above - and on current immigration figures it will really take a dive.

Maybe as well as blockading the ports (sea and air) - although they already all have immigration controls - you want to start shooting the elderly?

Maybe you really want to stop tourists coming in unless other tourists have been counted out. Is that your plan?

How are you going to count them, and how are you going to round up those who have gone missing?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 05:11 AM

The difference between births and deaths has only just overtaken immigration as the main cause of our rapidly spiralling population, and immigration is making that worse.
Immigration is still accounting for almost half of our population increase, so how can it be ignored, fool.

If you have more up to date figures than The Office Of National Statistics, you should contact them at once, fool.

This very month Phil Woolas, the immigration minister foolishly said "Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said.

However, Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics, said the change was due to a change in data analysis, not Government policy. "I would not call it a significant slowing up in any way," he said.

Actual immigration is not falling.
A few extra people are leaving because of the recession.
Do you have any evidence that will continue, fool?
The FACT that every previous recession in the last 40 years has had the same, short lived effect is very good evidence that it will not.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: GUEST,Chris B (Born Again Scouser)
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 05:26 AM

I'm not aware of anyone complaining about Poles coming to Britain in 1939 and 1940 when they came to continue the fight against Nazi Germany alongside their comrades in the Royal Air Force, Royal Navy, the Army and the Merchant Marine. In return for their heroism and their sacrifices in defence of our freedom Churchill and Attlee sold their country out to Stalin at Yalta and Potsdam.

When it comes to the Poles, we owe them.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 06:06 AM

I agree Scouse.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: GUEST,Chris B (Born Again Scouser)
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 08:32 AM

Are you planning to get rid of the Irish as well? They're immigrants from a foreign country as well, after all.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 08:36 AM

Chris, I am not calling for the removal of anyone.
Why do you even ask that?
Have you read any of my posts in this thread at all?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 08:59 AM

"In return for their heroism and their sacrifices in defence of our freedom Churchill and Attlee sold their country out to Stalin at Yalta and Potsdam."

Strictly speaking, they didn't make their sacrifices in defence of our freedom - that was a cause secondary to what was overwhelmingly their main objective, which was the liberation and re-constitution of Poland.

But you're right Chris, they were astonishingly brave and we owe them a great debt of gratitude. I've met some of those men, and felt humble in their presence - very humble indeed.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 09:37 AM

richard, look on the other thread .
I found someone who agrees with you!
I would say that he is incredible, not credible though.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: GUEST,Keith A o Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 01:29 PM

Tug?
Pesent levels unsustainable. Very true.
But why do you think the trend will not continue?
All the evidence is that it will.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 03:28 PM

Keith why don't you read the stuff you posted links to?

The projections there were based on 2008 figures: fact.

We now know (from the very same ONS) that ever since then net immigration has been falling: fact.

You ask whether the immigration is sustainable: look at the age profiles in the same stuff you linked to: we need more immigrants to provide an economy that can support the ageing.

Either that or you will have to start exporting or killing the ageing, or starving them out. You call yourself a physicist? You should be able to work out the arithmetic.

I repeat. If you called the stuff you posted to the most up to date information, then you are a liar.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Peace
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 03:29 PM

"UK immigration too high?"

Smokin' too much bud over there . . . .

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 03:46 PM

Richard you fool, those ARE the most up to date figures!
That ONS link you posted yesterday, uses the same figures, fool.
Why don't you read the stuff you post links to.
You might notice that the graph stops at 2008.
By your logic, that makes you a liar as well as a fool.

I am a physicist, but not an economist.
Are you?
For any you can find, I can find one that does NOT agree that immigration is the answer to our problems.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 26 Oct 09 - 08:39 PM

Tug?
Pesent levels unsustainable. Very true.
But why do you think the trend will not continue?
All the evidence is that it will.

yes Keith, it was me, where has it gone.... I'm still signed in. Why was it deleted....it clearly carried copies of older posts, Joe, or Clone, please re-instate, or thread becomes incoherent!

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 02:53 AM

Richard, you have been busy posting elsewhere (and smearing my name elsewhere).
You need to answer here.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 05:17 AM

You are right that the link I gave was not to more recent figures, and therefore you were not lying when you said the link you gave was to up to date figures. To that extent I owe you and give you an apology.

Your reading of the effect of the data is still however wrong in that immigration has been falling (incidentally, since some time before the economic downturn) and is falling, which will be disastrous in terms of the age profile of the population - the "pensions time-bomb".

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 05:52 AM

Apology accepted.
Thank you.
The ONS projections take all trends up to mid 2008 into account, and unless there is a dramatic change in policy they are valid.
Everyone except you agrees that makes UK immigration too high.

The supposed need for immigration to solve the pension problem is not proven.
For instance, see the opinions of Migrationwatch and Balanced migration

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 08:58 AM

Everyone except you agrees that makes UK immigration too high.

   No, as I said in my deleterd post, it is a balance between immigration and available resources. Immigration may or may not be too high, according to the political will to devote resources.

    The present trends, over the past couple of yearts cannot be extrapolated. That would be like measuring a baby's growth over the firat year and extrapolating an 18 ft being with a huge head.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 09:30 AM

It is more noteworthy than that. Net immigration started to fall in mid 2005, whereas the economy did not enter recession until late 2008, which might very well presage a continuing fall in net immigration.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 03:05 PM

There is none so blind as them who refuse to see!
Look at the graph, figure 4, that I linked to.
A steadily rising trend, extrapolated into the near future.
Look at the net migration graph that Richard linked to.
Net migration is shooting up at the start, 1998, and continues to rise for the whole period. There is an upward spike which is the EU influx, which peaks in 2005. That decline is the EU rush tailing off.

How can you two set yourselves up as an authority on population, and contradict the teams of expert demographers, statisticians, economists and social scientists employed by the ONS.
Do you have more comprehensive and up to date statistics than they do?Please tell us how you know that they have got it completely wrong, and you two know better????
I believe the professionals.
Who do you think is going to believe you????
You are in denial.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 05:25 PM

So you agree that net immigration has been falling ever since 2005?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 08:05 PM

No richard, anyone can look at the graph YOU linked to and see that is not true.
There is a spike that peaks in 2005. That spike ends in 2006, then the steady long term upward trend resumes until the recession.
But I know nothing.
I take note of what the professionals say.
The population is shooting up.
It is driven by immigration and the children of immigrants.
It is not me saying that, but the experts who monitor the statistics for the government.
You obviously know much more than them.
Give us YOUR evidence that says that the ONS is WRONG and immigration is coming down.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 27 Oct 09 - 09:07 PM

Look, we've already been here......the figures are the figures ( some may be more reliable than others) 'Too high' and 'not too high' are both judgements that stand independent of the figures. ONS doesn't set out to make judgements, only to provide data. If your judgement is different from mine, on the same 'data' there are interesting reasons for this....let's hear them.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 11:08 AM

It is the projections based on all the available evidence that justify my belief that immigration is too high.
I am not aware of any credible or authoratative individual, group or publication that does find those projections acceptable.

This has gone on too long now.
I described some of the issues relating to immigration to argue that it is too high.
For doing that I was called a racist and a liar by Mr Silly and Royston, and a xenophobe by Tug, which I take to mean racist.
I used evidence from ONS to endorse everything I claimed.
Only Tug and Richard are still arguing.
They have a preconceived belief that mass immigration is intrinsically good. They have no evidence to support their view and dismiss all evidence to the contrary.
The findings of The Office Of National Statistics, with all their professional expertise, comprehensive data and data processing resources, are simply dismissed.
They know better but they can not say how.

If that does not change their prejudice, nothing I can say is ever going to.
Just two numpties.
Not worth another post.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 12:35 PM

Ermmm, I'll type this slowly.....figures in themselves do not constitute an argument. Somewhere you must reveal your major premise.

Here's mine.....immigration has always been a part of British life, if it outstrips available resources then we need to take action. This should not be based on racial criteria, should take into consideration gaps in the employment market, and seasonal workers should be accommodated properly ( fruit, hops etc picking is done almost exclusively by eastern Europeans who may well not qualify for permanent immigration).


    Immigration is one of several factors that contribute to a variety of social problems, and in some areas is hardly an issue,yet the problems persist.
Said all this before....Nuff said!

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 12:41 PM

Just two numpties.

Lack of argument reveals itself!

Actually there are quiet a few more. A glance at my PMs indicate that several posters just haven't got the will to endlessly repeat themselves. Perhaps being willing to continue against all evidence of being heard does make us numpties.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 01:26 PM

Major premise, I do not want to live in the England of the projections.
Who does (not a rhetorical question)?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 03:14 PM

All the people 'clamouring' to be immigrants, I suppose.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 03:18 PM

Not even you then.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: folk1e
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 04:52 PM

OK, I'll have a go......
There is a question (or 2) behind the original question of wether UK immigration is too high. Is the population of the UK too high? Is the future population of the UK too high? Will immigration provide the needs of the UK now and in the future? ...... etc, etc

Firstly as has been previously noted effective immigration is the amount of people coming into the country in exess of those emmigrating.
The future population of the UK is dependant on the base population birthrate pluss the immigrant birthrate. UK base population birthrate is not sustainable! By this I mean the base population death rate is higher than birthrate, ergo we need immigration to hold our population at the present levels. I have seen few people advocating a reduction in our population. This leaves us with argueing over the actual amount of immmigration we collectivly want!
If you think about it there is a natural selection involved in emmigration so that we are more likely to loose a highly qualified person than a lower one, if only because they are more likely to be financially able to relocate abroad. This slews the natural ballance of the population (allbeit slightly).
The opposite side of the equation is the earning potential of immigrants is greater than in their homeland, otherwise they would not be coming here!
If we take the long view here, the educational chances of an immigrants children are increased. This has a dramatic effect on the number of their children (there is a direct corolation here)!

So we need some net immigration, and the total number of immigrants (and their families) will initially increase but then slowly reduce to base levels) If anyone doubts this look at the birthrate in countries like Ireland over the last century.

Again this is a simplification of the complex nature of population change and has also been noted already we are being asked to apply an emotional answer rather than an impirical one!

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 06:07 PM

A quick look at the graph Richard linked to shows that the birth rate was already well above the death rate in 1998, and has been ever since.
Balanced migration would still result in rising population.
Many people do think that the population of England, especially the South East, has become too high already.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 28 Oct 09 - 08:47 PM

Bye, then. I'm staying.

As a physicist Keith, you will be aware of the practice of drawing the best curve through data. Immigration peaked in 2005, well before the recession, and has been mostly going down ever since.

There are new measures in place that authorise control of immigration. You admit that most immigration comes through ports (air and sea) but not through smuggling. In those ports there are immigration control posts.

I wish you the best of luck as you age wherever you go, and the falling population means that there will be no support for you in your old age.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 02:36 AM

Richard, I can not resist exposing your ignorance, and your attempts to mislead.
It was only EU immigration that peaked in 2005.
That peak is superimposed on the steadily rising graph of net migration.
ONS expects EU migration to balance.
ONS expects the actual decline in net migration, that coincided with the start of the recession, to be temporary as usual with recessions.
ONS have said that current controls are having no effect.

You are arguing with and against ONS, numpty.
Why should anyone listen to you and ignore them?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 03:16 AM

The number of persons granted settlement in the United Kingdom, excluding EEA and
Swiss nationals, rose by 26 per cent in the second quarter of 2009 (46,120) compared with
the second quarter of 2008 (36,510).There were increases in employment-related grants
(up 34 per cent to 19,815), family formation and reunion grants (up 9 per cent to 16,965)
and other grants, including those on a discretionary basis and where the category of grant
is unknown (up 56 per cent to 8,740). These were partly offset by a decrease in asylumrelated
grants (down 7 per cent to 600) (Figure 3.3).
Comparing the last 12 months (ending 30 June 2009) with the previous 12 months (ending
30 June 2008), the number of persons granted settlement in the United Kingdom, excluding
EEA and Swiss nationals, rose by 9 per cent from 148,730 to 162,630. There were
increases in employment-related grants (up 17 per cent to 67,600), asylum-related grants
(up 4 per cent to 3,765) and family formation and reunion grants (up 19 per cent to 63,120).
These were partly offset by a decrease in other grants, including those on a discretionary
basis and where the category of grant is unknown (down 18 per cent to 28,145).

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 04:09 AM

Link for last ONS extract http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/mig0809.pdf
To sum up, according to ONS,

Immigration from outside EU is still rising and has been for very many years. So called controls have had no effect.

EU immigration has peaked and declined.

The drop in net migration due to the recession is almost entirely due to people leaving, and is only temporary.

We are still heading for the worst case projections.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 04:22 AM

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=950

Again. Peak immigration 2005. Trend ever since downwards.
Peak well before recession, therefore Keith your (not the ONS's) argument that immigration will bounce back because it tracks economic growth is unfounded.

Just numbers.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 04:42 AM

Ignore the post accession EU influx, and there has been NO peak in immigration in 2005.
That was a one off event causing that blip.
You must know that. You are trying to conceal the simple truth that there has been no fall in actual immigration. Only a recession induced temporary increase in actual emigration.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 04:52 AM

512,000 people migrated to the UK in the year to December 2008,
similar to the 527,000 in the year to December 2007 and remaining at a similar level to that
seen since the A8 Accession countries joined the EU in 2004 (Figure 1.1).

NO PEAK IN 2005.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 05:18 AM

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/mig0809.pdf
Look at the nice simple graph, Fig 4.3 at the bottom of page 12.
there is a line for UK resident born outside, and for resident foreign nationals.
Both are steadily rising lines.
NO PEAKS ANYWHERE

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 05:39 AM

"Keith your (not the ONS's) argument that immigration will bounce back because it tracks economic growth is unfounded."

The ONS says actual immigration has been rising steadily irrespective of economics.
The ONS predicts that the surge in emigration coinciding with the recession will be temporary as usual for recessions.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 06:38 AM

I will be offline for a couple of days.
While the cat's away the numpties can play, at making up theories and naively or disingenuously misinterpreting statistics.

The true figures still show that we are on track for the worst case projections.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 29 Oct 09 - 07:33 AM

Right that does it....off to Australia, plenty of room there.Or maybe Spain, mind you I've heard Corfu is nice for brits.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 13 Nov 09 - 02:54 AM

Immigration is putting an intolerable strain on services in many areas.
There are real issues on jobs and homes.
It is not racist to express concern at the level of immigration.
The government should do something to reduce the influx.

I know I have said all this before, but now the Prime Minister has said the same.
The Lib Dems say his proposals are too little too late.
I wonder what Royston, Mr.Silly, Richard, Tug, Don and Co. are saying.
Liar?
Fantasist?
Xenophobe?
Racist?

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 13 Nov 09 - 05:18 AM

The PM also described the dismissing of immigration as an issue,(those above and also Fred McCormick) as "lazy elitism."

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Arnie
Date: 13 Nov 09 - 05:53 AM

Embarkation checks were abandoned at Channel ports by the Tories in the mid 1990's. When Labour took over, they used this as a precedent to abandon embarkation checks at the airports. Now no-one really knows how many visitors, students, work permit holders etc actually leave the UK when their visa expires - an awful lot simply stay put and enter the world of illegal working, sham marriages & bogus college courses. Of course, if you are unfortunate enough to be picked up by a UKBA Arrest Team, then a timely claim for asylum will get you instant bail and another chance to disappear. Until embarkation checks are re-introduced, the UK only really operates half an immigration control. Last time I visited the US I was checked by immigration on departure and I'll bet they haven't abandoned their outward checks.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: GUEST,Les Paul
Date: 13 Nov 09 - 12:43 PM

I have nothing against any race of people, but when you see the numbers of Europeans flooding into Britain one cannot help but be concerned.

Yes they did arrive in 2000 to seek employment, but they soon discovered that bringing their family over paid a lot better.

I have a family living beside me and the lady told me, their rent is paid, they both receive state benefits, and with three children they receive more than they did when her husband was working.

The government MUST cap the numbers coming in and stop giving them benefits.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 14 Nov 09 - 05:46 AM

And from your one (unprovable) anecdote, aboout one immigrant famiy, we are supposed to extrapolate that all the immigrants in this country are here looking for handouts.

Not very likely, given the long line of unverifiable pro BNP "Guests" who have been dirtying these threads recently.

So "Guest, whatever", care to give us some reason for granting your comments any credibility?

No!....I thought not.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
From: Tug the Cox
Date: 14 Nov 09 - 02:41 PM

Right, the official time was 16 days and 19 hours, would the winning ticket holder please make their claim.