BS: American Presidential race 2024

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Bill D
Date: 19 Oct 24 - 08:24 AM

Now he is avoiding interviews and questions because he is "exhausted".
He is also refusing to release his medical records. Makes one wonder.
   I do hope he lives long enough to be defeated in the election.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 19 Oct 24 - 09:26 AM

Judging by the BBC interviews with black male Trump supporters in Georgia shown on TV this morning, he stands every chance of winning.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 19 Oct 24 - 11:10 AM

You would judge a national election result by a conversation with a small minority of voters in one state? Don't be ridiculous. It's time to turn off the manipulative stuff Trump's desperate handlers are pushing out. It's all spin.

Keep your eye on the ball.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 19 Oct 24 - 11:43 AM

It seems to me that the discourse is all about Trump; even Kamala is speaking about Trump a lot of the time. And terrifyingly, the "prediction markets" - the gambling odds on US elections - give Trump a far higher chance: "Bets on Kalshi, which recently won court approval to allow election betting in the country for the first time, give Trump a 55 percent chance of winning, versus 45 percent for Harris. Polymarket has the race at 56 to 44, while PredictIt shows them at 54 to 49."

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: The Sandman
Date: 19 Oct 24 - 11:45 AM

The Book makers make it fairly close between them,I wouldnt like to predict the winner

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 Oct 24 - 04:12 AM

It seems to me there’s only one person being ‘ridiculous’ and ‘taking their eye off the ball’ here, and that’s the one ignoring reports of growing support for Trump (in this case, nothing to do with ‘manipulative stuff Trump’s handlers are pushing out’, but an independent BBC report conducted by the BBC’s own correspondent), denying there’s any chance of a Trump victory, and trying to silence those who see that chance as an ever-present danger.

Not so much taking your eye off the ball as burying your head in the sand.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: gillymor
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 07:15 AM

At long last the GOP candidate has addressed a serious issue that's been on the mind of every voter, the size of Arnold Palmer's talleywhacker.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Neil D
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 07:54 AM

I heard him say that crap about Arnie. It was as creepy as it was sophomoric.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 10:04 AM

Fairly scary piece about prisoners running an election. (It just seems so odd to me that prisoners can't vote in America. Way to remove people from the common good!)
I was wondering why black men were unimpressed by Harris. It's because she was such a brute as a district attorney, apparently. “She ain’t for her people. Do you know how many Black and brown people she put in prison? … She’s gonna be like a Bill Clinton, a conservative Democrat who is tough on crime.”

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 11:37 AM

The reading you're all taking is of the bogus stuff being pushed out by the Trump machine. I told you before and will repeat until the election is over - IGNORE THE POLLS. At this point they are truly meaningless, filled with pumped up fake surveys the Trumps folks are generating. It is supposed to scare you away from the polls. Since most of you aren't here and aren't voting, just sit on your hands and let us get on with the election.

Here are polls that matter - Lisa Desjardins reports from the Washington Bureau of the AP where they call the US election (news reporting - not the actual canvassing and final count by governments). The Associate Press works on this with a team for a year out to be sure they've done the math and are accurate. You can pay attention to that poll on election night and the following days (if required).

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 11:41 AM

”It just seems so odd to me that prisoners can't vote in America.”

Most prisoners in the UK can’t vote either…

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 11:47 AM

”The reading you're all taking is of the bogus stuff being pushed out by the Trump machine”

As you clearly didn’t get it the first time, I’ll repeat - the TV report I quoted was an independent piece conducted by the BBC’s own reporter, absolutely nothing to do with ‘bogus stuff pushed out by the Trump machine’.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 12:24 PM

Many news organizations are responding to the Trump stuff. That's the point. These polls aren't labeled as by the Trump organization, they're side efforts with vague names sponsored by the various dark money PACs. It's another dirty trick. An expert in polls was asked to analyse these supposed results being pushed out and they identified as many as 30 of those bogus surveys of voters now circulating in the same universe with other more respected organizations. They dilute the results of all of the pollsters that attempt to be scientific. If you don't know what you're looking at, you also may be confused by their bogus content.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 01:08 PM

It was nothing to do with any polls, Stilly. It was, direct quote from BWM's post, "BBC interviews with black male Trump supporters in Georgia shown on TV". Maybe those black males are reflecting the polls but I would have thought it more likely that, as Thompson says, those black men do not like Harris.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 01:27 PM

Prisoners can certainly vote in Ireland.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 02:01 PM

A few black men don't like Kamala. So you think she'll lose? A lot of white men don't like Trump, but you think he'll win?

Use your critical thinking skills, please.

Here is more of Trump's cockeyed campaign stuff - go "work" at a McDonalds so he can dismiss Harris' experience from a summer job when she was in high school. It's a tit-for-tat thing that matters to him.

Trump's McDonald's visit sets off social media: See photos, video, reactions

Here is a snippet (hopefully you can read the whole thing at the source) from a well-regarded American historian:

Heather Cox Richardson (Letters From An American) has called attention to the next steps should Trump win - This is where his party with Twenty-fifth Amendment his ass out of office.

The need to figure out what would happen if modern medicine could keep alive an incapacitated president became apparent after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963. Not only did the question of a president’s incapacity have to be addressed; so did the problem of succession. Vice President Lyndon Baines Johnson was falsely rumored to have had a heart attack, and both the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate were old and doubted that they could adequately fulfill the duties of the presidency themselves.

Congress’s solution was the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution, providing a system by which either the president or, if they were unable to realize their incapacity, members of the executive branch would transfer the powers of the president to the vice president. Eisenhower enthusiastically backed the idea that the nation should have coverage for a disabled president.

To anyone paying attention, it is clear that Trump is not in any shape to manage the government of the United States of America. He is canceling interviews and botching the ones he does sit for, while falling asleep at events where he is not actually speaking. He lies incessantly even when hosts point out that his claims have been debunked, and cannot answer a question or follow a train of thought. And his comments of the weekend—calling the vice president a “sh*t vice president,” telling a woman to get “your fat husband off the couch” to vote for him, and musing about a famous golfer’s penis—indicate that he has no mental guardrails left.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 02:04 PM

As SRS has said before, the polls are unreliable for multiple reasons, including the methods used by some of them and also the political interference in some of them.

I have been looking at this site for a few months now (after looking at other sites and deciding this one is impartial)

The Hill 2024 Elections

and it compiles results from many polls. I look at the poll results and the graphs of how they are changing, but I have taken SRS's advice and I am waiting to see the actual, real-world election result when it happens.

I like the site because it also has poll results for some key states including the seven battleground states.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 03:13 PM

I didn't say anything about anyone winning or losing, Stilly, I was just pointing out that you were talking about polls while BWM made it quite clear that he was talking about a BBC report that had nothing to do with polls.

I think we all genuinely hope that you are right but whatever we say on here is not going to make an iota of difference. Whether preaching to the converted or voicing genuine concerns.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 21 Oct 24 - 07:00 PM

Most of those articles and networks and such are basing their information on polls. You can't escape them. BBC interviewed people who have probably been part of or are reading those polls. It's one thing for a person to say "this is my opinion" and extrapolate from that. But that's not what all of these sources are doing. There is a lot of generalizing going on "people say" or "BBC says" or whatever source - no one can truly know, now can they? And with the interfering and disinformation by Russia and Iran, and Musk over on X playing head games with naive voters, or not-so-naive voters, it's a hot mess.

You all have to wait it out.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: robomatic
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 12:31 AM

Just got home from a fund-raising event held for the lone Representative the State of Alaska has elected to Congress. There has been a lot of money raised for the 'other' guy, a right-wing candidate, who is a TRMPster. She, on the other hand, is one of the only if not THE only indigenous Americans in Congress, and a Dem to boot. And she is articulate, intelligent, and good for the State. It was held at an Alaska art gallery and superbly catered.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 03:47 AM

no one can truly know, now can they?

That applies to everyone, Stilly. Even you! Everyone's opinion is based on outside influence and personal beliefs. Of course some influencers are more credible than others.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 03:51 AM

I'd be inclined to distrust polls, because since mobile phones (and the phishing accompanying them) there is no longer the pool of people to talk to that existed when it was possible to call a landline at random and ask a series of questions.
In the 1990s, say, a lot of polling was done by staff who stopped people on the street and asked them questions; later, this was transferred to randomised phone calls to landlines. But today, an awful lot of people don't answer phone calls from numbers rather than from the names linked to numbers in their phone's contacts list.
This isn't surprising; when I get calls from numbers it's usually someone wanting to tell me that my account with a bank I'm not with has been compromised, or that they're calling from the helpline for a computer operating system I don't use, or that my funds in the form of Bitcoin (ha!) has problems. These phriendly phishermen have removed me, and millions of others, from the pool of poll candidates.
On the other hand, the gambling companies are very well able to calculate the odds, because they're skilled in pouring money into their own pockets by fooling poor eejits who think they can beat the odds. So if they're giving better odds on one candidate than another, it's unlikely that the gambling magnates are wrong.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 04:00 AM

Good points, Thompson. Of course even the bookies get stung by an outsider occasionally but it is rare. Maybe in this case they are listening to the pollsters too!

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 05:15 AM

Crooks attract other crooks...

Elon Musk is offering a $1 million a day to sign his PAC petition. Is that legal?

I really hope they both get their comeuppance! How can so many people not understand that neuther Trump not Musk support democracy? Do they really want the USA to become a Putin-esque staet?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 06:49 AM

For the third and final time, the piece I quoted was NOT FROM A POLL - unlike some who harp on constantly about them, I’m not in the least bit interested in polls, I listen to experienced political commentators in press and media outlets I have trust in. The piece was a vox-pop conducted by a BBC employee. Were the black gentlemen they interviewed representative of black men in general? No-one can truly know (to quote SRS’s stating-the-blindingly-obvious comment), but they surely do represent at least some of their demographic.

There is nothing in the least bit ‘ridiculous’ about listening to all sides and trying to weigh the various viewpoints. There is something very ridiculous, however, in attempting to silence those who are on your side but who perceive a danger from the other side, or who hold opinions which don’t tally perfectly with your own. That isn’t ‘keeping your eye on the ball’, it’s burying your head in the sand.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: robomatic
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 06:53 AM

There is a profound world-wide multi-faceted attack on Democracy going on world-wide. And of course it is reflected on what is going on here at home. This is not a new challenge, it is greatly influenced by new technology and who controls it and how and whether it can be controlled. Think about what the printing press did to civilization and now we have the next phase in the internet as part of the new digital paradigm *christ I'm sounding like another member of this forum who disappeared).

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 09:12 AM

2 weeks...

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 10:57 AM

Ah, Dave, you got my point!

I want this conversation amongst all of us to be clear - none of the sources we quote actually KNOW anything beyond educated guesses. But they are still guesses.

I also want to share a phrase a good friend from North Carolina always used - "don't borrow trouble." It hasn't happened yet. Early voting is getting a huge turnout, we all learned our lesson with Hillary and covering all our bases so are being very thorough and very cautious, but for now, don't tear your hair out about Trump.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 11:12 AM

I lost my hair years ago, Stilly, so don't worry about that :-D

They are indeed all educated guesses. Some have a better record than others but non are infallible. I don't think any of us are 'borrowing trouble' though. Just voicing our worries. Saying 'it will not happen' does not allay those worries and criticising people who do worry does nothing to help either.

I believe you when you say it is not as bad as it seems but that is probably because I want you to be right. We only have 2 weeks to wait to see what happens. In the interim things are going to heat up and opinions will not be changed.

Good luck in all your endeavours

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: meself
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 11:28 AM

"How can so many people not understand that neuther Trump not Musk support democracy?"

What you're missing is that "so many people" just do not care about democracy. They literally - and, yes, I literally mean literally - worship trump. He's all that matters. It is a massive cult.

"Do they really want the USA to become a Putin-esque staet?" Simple answer: yes. Complicated answer: yes. David Frum, years ago now: "Russia is the White Supremacists' Israel."

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Oct 24 - 06:08 PM

When you say Trump is massive cult...

Seriously though, are you serious? A vast number of people want a dictatorship?