BS: Financial concerns big or small

Subject: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Donuel
Date: 27 Feb 20 - 04:04 PM

For purchase hints or coping with the sudden economic changes:

There has never been anything like what has just happened today and Friday for 100 years.

With any luck, practical ideas may emerge. I will respond to questions but I won't be posting grim technical information on this very real sell off.

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: mg
Date: 28 Feb 20 - 01:50 AM

well, if we have any factory capacity left in US..how much is there? Much could be diverted to say textile factories to making hospital gowns, masks etc. Some laboratories diverted to making medicines. Lots of marijuana uses I think. Anyone who makes electronics could hopefully be making robots and UV items. Self-driving cars turned into self-driving ambulances. I really do not expect that virus itself to cripple the US. It might be fairly minor and probably will be. But quarantines have a massive effect on economies. Movement of goods. People losing jobs or fearing going to work. Food will still be produced and we might eat a lot of soybeans but I think we won't starve and lots of people are probably starting to plant gardens. We are adaptable people. We have a lot of land. Oh dear, but China owns a lot of it. Seen at least one potential case in a pet. I was waiting for that shoe to drop since it allegedly started in animals, which I am not sure I believe. I suspect it was a bioagent that escaped. I don't think anything was deliberately set loose.

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Joe Offer
Date: 28 Feb 20 - 02:14 AM

I needed to take some money out of my IRA. Wish I had done it last week...

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Donuel
Date: 28 Feb 20 - 06:25 AM

ATMs should continue to function with 2 remaining tools of the Fed.
Why take a penalty. Bank runs are not rational but neither are people.

6 trillion was lost globally. We still have today to deal with and the action of Hedge funds. A weaker dollar does help.

On savings, now we must pay the bank interest since it has inverted,
but it beats the alternative.

disruptions are short term but dislocations are long term.

In general this will be long term but recovers quicker once spending begins agaib.

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Donuel
Date: 28 Feb 20 - 09:31 AM

I was in Finance in my twenties (I left for ethical reasons and the firm went bust later) and my wife is a Phd senior health economist for the Federal Government.

America will not shut down like China and Japan. Only China can. Schools will not close before Summer. When more people are outside and not in rooms, the contagion will SLOW>
Cooler heads will prevail. The confusion and uncertainty here is due to leadership. As new rules become apparent the economy will settle. Much of yeterday's reaction was from automated
sell off triggers. When humans are back in charge things will improve. Lots of refinancing will happen for large corporations with debt.
Long term this will last over a year but corporations are in good shape. Money has no where else to go but here. The short term will be a challenge
but if you are moderately prepared you should only be inconvienenced. Shortages will only increase demands. If you are wealthy do not not buy the dips. Wait a month.
Travel and leisure will suffer more than food. Take a 20 year postion that seems good to you for your kids but don't risk it all.
   

Now the human toll: It will be spread out as to seem less severe than it may be in reality. Even 1919 fatality rates are doubled in estimations.
Mass hysteria seems like somthing out of your hands but your own confidence makes a differnce. We all know for whom the bell tolls and the sadness of grim times.
In short this is not Armeggedon unless an irrational leader sabotages our recovery - which is not impossible but unlikely.

If anyone Says they know the bottom or that this will disappear, they are liars.


btw the firm that went bust was Bear Stearns (BS) which is funny to me.

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Donuel
Date: 28 Feb 20 - 09:38 AM

At least gas will be cheap. :^/

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Donuel
Date: 28 Feb 20 - 11:50 AM

The race to a bottom is slowing a bit but its not 4:30 yet.

Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Mar 20 - 10:48 AM

winners