BS: Global Rice Crisis

Subject: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Amos
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 06:15 PM

You may have seen a couple of references to a rice shortage in other threads. It is turning inot a shortage of serious impact. The Int'l Herald Tribune reports:

"...Rice-importing countries have become increasingly desperate, with fast-food restaurants in the Philippines even cutting rice portions in half.

Ben Savage, a rice broker at Jackson Son & Co. in London, said that even before the latest restrictions by Vietnam and India, international rice trading had practically stopped as exporters had become reluctant to sell as they waited to see how high prices would go. "The market has pretty much ground to a halt for the past few weeks," he said.

Shipments are still being made to complete contracts signed months ago, and governments are still doing deals with each other using state-controlled companies. But with virtually no private contracts being signed, the rice market has become extremely volatile, with prices jumping ever higher as governments impose more export restrictions.

Today in Business with Reuters

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Global rice consumption has exceeded production in each of the last seven years, so rice stockpiles have been falling steadily. Rising affluence in India and China has increased demand even as a plant virus has damaged the harvest in Vietnam and poor weather has hurt output in other countries.

Vietnam, the world's second-largest rice exporter after Thailand, announced Friday that it would reduce rice exports by 22 percent in the hope of curbing the rapidly accelerating inflation rates in the country.

India on Friday set a new minimum price for rice exports of $1,000 a ton, far above the price of $700 to $750 for most grades of rice. The new price makes it unlikely that India will export any rice except the highest grades of basmati rice for which the market within India has long been small.

Cambodia said Wednesday that it was halting all private sector rice exports. Egypt has barred all rice exports starting on April 1; while Egypt bars exports each year to conserve supplies for domestic consumption, the Egyptian government has acted earlier than usual this year and after less rice than usual has been exported.

Thailand has not imposed restrictions yet, but there has been public discussion about doing so...."


This could be very disruptive.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Peace
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 06:27 PM

I wonder if the IMF has its hands in this? What a surprise THAT would be.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Barry Finn
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 06:32 PM

The biggest problem with Rice is Condi. Get rid of her & the world & the market will be much better off.

Barry

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Sorcha
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 07:31 PM

Must we have politics in every thread? Gee Barry.....

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Rapparee
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 07:36 PM

I understand that the next crisis/increase in costs is going to be in cooking oils. That, too, is going to affect world food supplies.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 08:47 PM

We talk about rice, but other grains are going up in value at alarming rates. Ethanol has driven up the cost of corn, and now wheat has spiked in price. This might be becasue people are substituting other things for rice.

                     At the risk of sounding like a broken record, has anyone in a position of authority mentioned growing world populations as part of the problem?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: number 6
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 09:05 PM

It's not just a Global Rice Crisis ... it's a Global food crisis.

It was the headline article in MacLeans magazine back in February "Why your grocery bill is about to hurt". The artical was definately an eyeopener.

here is a summary ...

TORONTO, Feb. 28 /CNW/ - With the global supply of cereal grains falling to 40-year lows, and with consumption trending ever upward, the earth's supply of food is suddenly under pressures unknown in half a century. Two weeks ago, wheat prices hit an all-time high of US$18.53 a bushel, while corn, driven in part by demand from the biofuel industry, climbed to $5.34 a bushel, more than double the average price before 2007. The political repercussions have been swift, and in some cases violent. In Mexico, about 70,000 people hit the streets to protest the doubling and tripling price of tortillas. Chinese officials are warning that rising rice and corn prices could lead to civil unrest in rural areas. Even the food-rich West is starting to feel the pinch. In September, rising pasta prices, a
direct function of the soaring value of wheat, sent Italians flooding city squares in Rome, Milan and Palermo to demonstrate. In the United States, the skyrocketing cost of chicken and cattle feed is hitting the pocketbooks of consumers at all points of the economic spectrum. Milk, eggs and filet mignon are all going up, and so is Kraft Dinner.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 09:11 PM

Doesn't it seem like this would be something that would concern world leaders?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Amos
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 10:01 PM

Rig:

As regards world population, of course it is a major factor in a complex confluence of factors. If it were the only factor, the problem would be much more manageable, if it existed at all.

Other factors are distorted distribution systems, market torque, climate, and limitations in knowledge, and the aberration of mismanaged water maintianing more golf courses in Phoenix than are "needed" and denying irrigation to lands only a couple of hundred miles down stream needed to grow food. It is simplistic to blame the whole problem on one factor.

As for governments, they will grow concerned to the degree their populations become hit with the impact.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 10:45 PM

Of course, there are governments who don't give a shit what their populations think. We in America have experienced some of that recently.

                      And there are other factors, obviously. But if the problem is to be dealt with, population growth is the best place to start, in my opinion.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Amos
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 10:46 PM

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 10:48 PM

In fact, it just came to me. You could have a cap-and-trade system on food, like they've proposed for carbon. If country "A" doesn't keep it's population growth under control, its food quota could be shifted to country "B." Then, of course, the people would rise up and hack up the politicians with machettes, by way of generating something to eat, and the incoming government would be that much more motivated to comply with their popultation quotas.
                      It seems like a win-win scenario to me.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: number 6
Date: 29 Mar 08 - 11:58 PM

one factor that should be mentioned is the fast economic growth in China and India ... economic growth initiates consumption ... not only in goods but of appetite ... the demand of beef has grown considerably in china, dairy products in India ... bovines require large quantities of grain.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Barry Finn
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 01:31 AM

Careful Amos & Ring, they may start killing us off by evaluating which of us spends the least. That would save US from going to war again.

So does that mean war is a 2 headed hydra? It gets rid of a sizable population while when focused on war it also spends to kill & hence it wastes the resources & money it takes to grow & raise food?

It's been an issue that's been in the forefront for quite some time. The fishing industries have been at a tug-of-war with the same for ages now & no one wants to see a soultion. Tell the fisherman to except a limit in size & amount & it raises hell, tell the people that there's no more fish & that raises hell, tell them that there's only so much available & that the costs just went through the roof & that raises hell. To bad no one wanted to listen or do something half a century ago, now when it'll take another half century to figure out what to do & then another half century to implement a plan, it'll take another half century for the plan to fulfill the plans intent. I have no doubt that the US won't turn to the code of the survival of the fittest & invade other weaker nations for their water & resources.
I wonder what that'll do to Canadian-Americian water boundery relations? The next 150 yrs may be more of an experiment in DIY survival. Each family scrapping it out on their own.
The time to start was yesterday, this same day as when we should've been dealing with the passive (pun) enegry criss & the hot climate issue & the air & water polution, the spieces extinction (US).
Well there's the doom & gloom side of it. Now here's the up side. Collect rain water, grow your own fruits & veggies, rasie your own livestock & keep everyone else out of your garden. Or find a secluded you can fish & farm from.

I had friends, a couple (I'd say elderly but I'm now the age they were when I first knew them), now both long gone. Patty Longley & Van Hope, both well seasoned & greatly respected sailors from the Pacific North West. Both spent alot of time, actually each a lifetime, building boats & sailing the waters from the Northwest, up to Alaska down south along the west coast & out to Hawaii. They built up a relationship with many folks & friends that they could trade provisions with within that triangle, they also searched for locations where they'd be able to hunt, forage & find wild food stuffs if ever needed (they had the fishing part down). They belived that some day it may all prove useful if the times got tough. They were a bit ahead of their time.

Barry

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Little Hawk
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 01:48 AM

I agree. Condoleeza Rice has gone beyond merely being a domestic problem...or a hemispheric problem...she is now a Global problem. The woman must be stopped! If Chongo is elected, she WILL be stopped, I promise you that, so vote wisely in November.

As for the rice situation...not good. It's my favorite staple. I eat like an Asian.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Wolfgang
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 05:15 AM

Energy can be produced from edible plants (like oil and coal have been, just quicker by a factor of some millions). That's called renewable energy. So if energy gets more expensive (look at the oil prices) food has to get more expensive as well. Our gas/petrol now by law has to contain 5% (or 10?) biofuel. Since our Green (and other parties) voters can spend more money on fuel than, say, Sambians can spend for food, it'll rather happen that Sambians starve than that we reduce our driving or flying.

Wolfgang (sometimes cynical Green voter)

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 09:27 AM

I would agree, Barry Finn, war is not a very effective way to deal with population growth.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Peace
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 01:53 PM

War is about organized murder, corporate greed and establishing control over the resources of others. Giving it a noble name and attributing 'knight in armour' qualities to the players is a lie.

"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori." (Bullshit, IMO.) Better you live for your country and let some other poor bastard die for his.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 02:10 PM

The greater problem is, the ones who will not get killed are the ones way back behind the front lines, like behind oceans and continents. The world is not improved if the front-line folks get killed, but it might be improved if...

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Peace
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 02:11 PM

War will end when the people who want them have to go fight them.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: GUEST,dianavan
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 02:49 PM

War creates serious disruption to the distribution of food. Pakistan (although able to feed its own population) is being hard hit because their rice is being sold on the black market to Afghanistan. China and India are being effected by over-population and increasing energy demands. The ability to produce food is dependent on the availability of agricultural land and climate but...

both Democratic and Republican candidates are ignoring this very big issue. I want to hear what they have to say about this problem. Seems to me that the politicians are leaving this problelm to be solved by ??? The blackmarket ??? Getting out of Iraq may be a start but what then?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Mr Red
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 02:53 PM

I think you'll find there is a grain shortage and a water shortage. War will not be in short supply for a long time to come.

One other thing that is not in short supply............ population. The above are not unconnected.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 30 Mar 08 - 08:47 PM

Those are very scary thoughts, Mr. Red, and I fear you are absolutely on target.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: number 6
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 11:03 AM

here's an excellent link to a CBC article concerning the world food crisis ... worth reading,


Is the world running out of food?

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 12:03 PM

Bill - Yes, that pretty well sums up the problem(s). The article hints at solutions, but stops short of providing them. I suspect it would be politically unpopular to do that, but it really needs to be done.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 01:45 PM

Mis-use of land for biofuels instead of food, increasing populations, use of products from food crops for everything one can name, drought and changing climates, the gambling by investors on the commodity market, distribution patterns, etc.-the CBC article is an overview of the many sources of the problem, but incomplete.

Thousands plus may starve before governments work toward a more rational system of production and supply.

Governments and people in general never plan ahead, hence carom from crisis to crisis. What, me worry?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 02:20 PM

It seems like somebody needs to start worrying, or the undertaking business is going to be the best investment around.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 03:00 PM

Thanks for the tip. Might buy into one.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 04:25 PM

Lends a new reality to the concept of going green, huh?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Donuel
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 04:35 PM

"It seems like somebody needs to start worrying"

When there is a cheeseburger shortage, the US administration might get involved.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Peace
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 07:12 PM

"Lends a new reality to the concept of going green, huh?"

Y'eat enough of that watercress (Bobert's thread) and you'll be going green. Yep. Green, green it's green they say, on the far side of the hill, ba boom boom boom boom boom boom . . . .

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 07:31 PM

Soylent green, perhaps?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: number 6
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 07:36 PM

all this green-green stuff in this thread is baloney ... think I'll go back to playing my video game of Computer Space.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 07:56 PM

...maybe we'll have green rice and ham...

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: number 6
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 08:00 PM

Yeah ... I've heard ham tastes like humans.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Riginslinger
Date: 31 Mar 08 - 08:21 PM

Only after they've been snacking on pork rinds. I think George Bush Senior would probably tast that way.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 01 Apr 08 - 12:31 AM

The jump in the trading price was fantastic- $580 a tonne on Wed., $760 a tonne on Thursday. In January, the price was about $380 a tonne.

According to the Financial Times, the Philipines shortfall couldn't be filled through market purchases; they need 500,000 tonnes. They are tapping some emergency stocks maintained by Vietnam and Thailand for a small part of their needs. African nations are already severely affected.

The president of the Thai Rice Exporters said he doesn't know where importing countries are going to get rice and forcasts continuing price increase. There is not enough to go around. The restrictions noted above have removed about one-third of the rice traded on the international market.

Rice famines this coming winter? Wheat and corn (maize) also short.

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 01 Apr 08 - 05:45 AM

Somebody's doing an awful lot of manipulating here, I wonder who it can be, is it all part & parcel of global terrorism?

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: GUEST,PMB
Date: 01 Apr 08 - 06:17 AM

Global terrorism paid very well for the oil companies- oil has more than trebled in price from the 'crisis levels' of $30 a barrel since 2003, and profits of the oil firms have soared. No doubt forcing the price of basic foodstuffs through the roof will help the now- struggling futures traders, so the whole thing could be part of a much- needed welfare scheme for the rich.

Terrorism? Cui bono? Cherchez la famine....

Subject: RE: BS: Global Rice Crisis
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 01 Apr 08 - 08:08 AM

"Somebody's doing an awful lot of manipulating here"

Yes ... it's the part and parcel of the natural state of being. Too much consumption of the haves, leaving too little of anything for the have nots. But with this 'natural' jolt to human kind even the haves will have to do with less.

biLL