BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,Fantasma
Date: 14 May 08 - 08:41 AM

People should also be concerned with the voters and supporters Obama seems to be attracting--uniters they ain't, no matter what Obama's rhetoric says.

It seems to me the Obama campaign has racially polarized Democrats in a way they haven't been since 1968, and his core supporters are some of the most divisive folk in the electorate--they appear more and more like the Rove Republicans every day.

To win in November, Obama can't afford to alienate Clinton's voters. Yet, alienate them they do.

We'll see if the white male working class voters abandon the party and cross back over to the Republicans this cycle.

We'll see if the Latino voters abandon the party again, and go to McCain in at least the same numbers they crossed over to Bush in 2000, because McCain is so much better on immigration than Obama is.

In other words, the two voting blocs the Obama camp is counting on to stay with him, haven't supported him in the primaries, and also have been swing voters since the Reagan days.

To assume they will swing to Obama this time is a very dangerous assumption to be making, IMO. And it is an assumption based more on arrogant denial, than historical and present day realities.

I honest to god don't have a clue who will win in November if the #1 issue is "it's the economy, stupid", because that issue for McCain and Obama both, is their weakest.

And does anyone think we can pull off enough of an economic recovery by the fall for the #1 issue for voters NOT to be the economy?

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Amos
Date: 14 May 08 - 08:27 AM

Jesus, Rig, that i s pure bull. Don't you do mathematics?


A

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Riginslinger
Date: 14 May 08 - 08:17 AM

Yeah, Obama is shaping up to be a pretty weak candidatet.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,Fantasma
Date: 14 May 08 - 08:14 AM

While I don't agree completely with your portrayals of the Democrats' preferred demographic voter blocs, pdq, I do think you may be right in your assessment with the union voters.

It doesn't matter to them who their union leadership endorses, and Ronald Reagan proved that, in spades.

If you look at the wildcat shutdown of the west coast ports on May Day, and even more importantly, the beginnings of a nascent coalition with immigration rights groups who are the only potential new union recruits in this country in a very long time, and the Obama camp just cannot afford to get this wrong.

The Latino voting bloc isn't in his corner, and if he keeps dissing the working class and low income voters of color outside the African American community, and you have a real problem come November.

Because if the unions can't get the rank and file out to work the streets for Obama in the fall, then Obama is doomed as a candidate.

I mean, he is going to need more than just the solidly middle class public sector unions to win.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: pdq
Date: 14 May 08 - 08:06 AM

The power base of the Democratic party is union workers, some of whom are blue collar. Not really the same as blue collar workers as a whole.

The democrats also expect all non-White folks, homosexuals and criminals (including organized crime) to join their coalition of union members, academics, professional politicians and the wealthy elite (see John Kerry, Babs Streisand, George Soros, etc.).

I don't see any attempt to get the common working people into the Democrat's big tent. By ignoring us and they will lose most elections outside the big urban centers.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,Fantasma
Date: 14 May 08 - 07:44 AM

I see that according to the morning papers, the Obama campaign strategy for West Virginia is to completely ignore it, as if no primary took place.

That should cheer everyone up.

The fingers in their ears, screaming "lalalalalalalal" strategy.

That'll capture the White House in November fer sure, especially when you add in the fact they are using the same strategy in Florida and Michigan.

Ignore the white working class voters (which no Democratic president has ever won without, I might add), and hope they'll go away strategy.

You combine that with Obama's shitty record on immigration and his being in the pockets of the energy conglomerates, and McCain already looks like the more liberal and moderate of the two.

I dunno. This bloc of voters has never been predictably Democratic since Ronnie Ray Guns shot his way into town. When Dean came in as party leader, he said his main priority was to woo them back to the party fold.

How ya gonna do that with Obama and his huge negatives (Wright, his shenanigans w/the Canadians over NAFTA, etc) with white working class voters, whose loyalty can't be assumed?

I mean, it's pretty damn arrogant of the Obama campaign to say they won't bother with WV in the fall either, and that they are already counting on the Clinton supporters to vote for him instead of McCain in the fall.

This campaign is starting to look more like the same old arrogant Democrat crap people hate the Democrats for all the time.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Bobert
Date: 14 May 08 - 07:21 AM

Well, it looks as if Hillary took 67% and Obama 26% in West Virginia...

In exit polls 91% of the voters said that "race was a factor" in their vote...

Having lived in Wess Virginia from 1985 to 2006 I am surprised that Obama got 1 in 4 votes... Other than Janie, I don't know anyone who lives in WV who would have voted for Obama... And darned few who would have voted for Clinton either...

I suspect some level of mischief here with Republican voters voting in the Dem primary...

I think we will see this in the remaining primaries as well...

B~

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Janie
Date: 14 May 08 - 01:03 AM

The significance of West Virginia, is not the number of delegates at stake.   West Virginia is a blue collar State with a very small minority population. 2006 US Census estimates are that the population is 94.9% White. 3.3% of the population is African-American, which means all other minority populations are miniscule.

The pundits and the Clinton campaign think Clinton's strong showing there demonstrates that she is more electable, assuming the the importance of the the White, blue collar vote to the the success of the Democratic nominee.    27% of the population is under age 18, and just over 15% is over age 65. I'm guessing the average age of registered voters in WV is higher than the national average.

Given the atypical demographics of WV, a 30% showing for Obama ain't too bad.   My West Virginia family all voted for Clinton. If Obama wins the nomination, they will all vote for him in the general election. However, my family is somewhat atypical for West Virginia in this day and age, and also tend to be straight party Democrats - an increasingly rare breed anywhere. Given the State demographics, the fact that nationally, the Democratic party is more pro environment than are the Republicians, (McCain;s recent noises re: global warming not withstanding), and the reality that any kind of economic survival for in the foreseeable future for the State depends on free rein to continue to rape the environment, West Virginia's electoral votes will go to McCain if Obama wins the nomination.

It is the electoral college that determines the election (don't we all know that!) When the demographics are examined state by state, it is clear we are in for a real horse race come November.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,Q as guest
Date: 14 May 08 - 12:20 AM

The top banana is Catspaw. The rotten banana goes to - no, she doesn't deserve that.
Earp had an Army Colt single action, with 12-inch barrel, not a special model, that he used to whack drunk cowboys with, but no one seems to know what he used after he left Kansas.

Davy! Davy Crocket!
King of the wild frontier.

Now those were the good old days of TV.

I think Hillary could gun down McCain if they met in the Fall shootout, but McCain would easily take Obama down. The WVA result is a clear warning. It may be too late for the Demos to reconsider and reorganize.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: catspaw49
Date: 13 May 08 - 11:25 PM

Wyatt Earp starring Hugh O'Brian
Actually the series was called something like "The Life and Legend of Wyatt Earp" or something like that. I was a hooked 6 year old as I recall. I even ordered a "Buntline Special" toy six shooter with the looonnnggg barrel. I think there was a life lesson there too.

The Buntline WAS in fact a legend as I later found out and no real proof of its existence was ever found in contemporary accounts short of Earp's own.....and old Wyatt was known to spin a yarn now and again. When mine came in the mail after waiting for what seemed an eternity, it turned out to be a cheap plastic thing which broke the first time I played with it. I was totally heartbroken as only a 6 year old can be when a dream goes poof.
Spaw

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Ebbie
Date: 13 May 08 - 11:16 PM

Davy! Davy Crocket!

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,Guest is Q
Date: 13 May 08 - 11:11 PM

Whoops! I hit enter on my keyboard. It activates a post. Joe was supposed to figure out why.
Anyway, here is a song I propose for Hillary-

Hillary,
Hillary,
Brave, courageous and bold;
Long live her fame
And long live her glory,
And long may her story be told!

Now who out there remembers the TV show which had that bit of doggerel as the theme song? Another name, of course.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,Guest is Q
Date: 13 May 08 - 11:04 PM

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Amos
Date: 13 May 08 - 09:30 PM

Whoops! With 23% returned it is:

DemocratsVote %WV DelTotal Del*
Clinton            63%    15       1,712
Obama            30%       3         1,877

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Amos
Date: 13 May 08 - 09:28 PM

Last I saw actual returns it was 56-38.

A bit better than I expected Barack to do.


A

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Bobert
Date: 13 May 08 - 09:22 PM

West Va. Projections:

Hillary: 130%

Obama: -30%

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Bill D
Date: 13 May 08 - 09:13 PM

...and she is still talking about winning...and demanding Florida & Michigan be seated & counted.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Bill D
Date: 13 May 08 - 08:39 PM

She is winning 2 to 1...It may get her 19 out of 26 delegates.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: bobad
Date: 13 May 08 - 06:51 PM

There are 28 delegates at stake in West Virginia.

Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: Peace
Date: 13 May 08 - 06:46 PM

No question that Hillary will win big there. But that doesn't really matter. Mississippi will tell people lots more about the realities in November, imo.

Subject: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 13 May 08 - 06:34 PM

I am not able to listen to radio, search internet etc. Can people occasionally post an update when results start coming in. Thanks. mg