BS: Can the LibDems Win?

Subject: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:13 AM

Now that The Guardian has decided to support them, do you think they stand a chance this time around?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:17 AM

If everyone votes for them ...

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: greg stephens
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:23 AM

Not if only the Guardian readers vote Liberal.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:49 AM

The Guardian has always been a Liberal/ Lib Dem inclined paper, supporting Labour only as being the more viable alternative.

There is no realistic or near-realistic prospect of the Lib Dems getting a Parliamentary majority with the present voting system. Conceivably, if there was a majority for Lib Dems and Labour together, they could form a coalition - and if the Lib Dems had more popular votes, they could demand to be seen as the senior partner in this, even with fewer seats, with their man in Number Ten. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

More likely at present appears to be a Tory minority administration, a few seats short of a majority. In principle that should mean that there would be a majority of MPs elected on a promise of a referendum on electoral reform - but I suspect that, if there is no reward in the shjape of immediate power, Labour would rat on that, as they did after 1997, when their manifesto promised the same thing,

The daftest thing is where you have Lib Dems telling supporters not to vote tactically for Labour in seats where the Lib Dem candidate hasn't a hope. The suggestion is that building up the popular vote is important in itself, regardless of the mathematics of the elected House. In fact, however many votes the Lib Dems get, there won't be electoral reform if the Tories get an overall majority.

The one option nobody seems to be anticipating is Labour and the Tiries getting together to form a Grand Coalation aka a National Government. But I wouldn't rule it out.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:51 AM

But there's definitely something very interesting going on here. As far as I know, The Guardian has always been a staunch Labour supporter. Something pretty earth moving has had to have happened for them to change colour. Are they not just reflecting the dissatisfaction/desenfranchisement that people are feeling with the corrupt governments we have had to endure which has now broken most of us?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 07:16 AM

The Guardian has always been a staunch Labour supporter.

No. The Guardian's support for Labour has always been tactical. It's always been anti-Tory, but that's not the same thing. Back when the SDP broke away it enthusiastically backed them. And its record as the Liberal backing paper goes back way into the 19th century.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 03 May 10 - 08:31 AM

A great number of us now look forward to the forthcoming Conservative government - not long now!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Will Fly
Date: 03 May 10 - 10:50 AM

Labour? That's not been in power for a very long time. There's not a gnat's difference between the attitudes of New Labour and the Conservatives. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. And if any party in this country thinks it can do much to overcome problems rooted in an international situation, it should think again. Cameron will be just as powerless and shiftless as Blair and Brown have been. The proof of the pudding will... "not long now!!!"

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Jim McLean
Date: 03 May 10 - 11:44 AM

The switch to Lib Dems by the Guardian and the Observer is an anti Tory measure, not essentially pro Lib Dem. Both papers realised that Labour is going to lose and hope that Clegg would support a Lib/Lab pact but without Brown. There is a problem in that Clegg said he would not support a party which had fewer votes albeit more seats which could be Labour's position when the election results come in.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 12:15 PM

What politicians say before an election is designed to get people to vote for them. It need not bear much resemblance to what they do once the votes have been collected.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 03 May 10 - 12:26 PM

I think people underestimate how much the Libs have jumped in the public consciousness, and I think people would be well advised to prepare for a hung parliament.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: pdq
Date: 03 May 10 - 12:40 PM

Many members of the British Parliament should be hung.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:25 PM

"What politicians say before an election is designed to get people to vote for them. It need not bear much resemblance to what they do once the votes have been collected."

That is perfectly true and of course another scenario is that a Tory party with the biggest number of seats but no overall majority may decide not to go into a permanent coalition with the Lib Dems (who would almost certainly demand PR in any such coalition) but may decide instead to try and work on with a minority government which means they may need to work out deals on specific issues only. It is not so far fetched as there is a precedence with the existing SNP administration in Edinburgh who have no majority. They've managed to get most of their bills through but have had to abandon certain measures where they have no support from elsewhere.   

Another scenario with this is that if they bring forward their English MPS for English matters idea - then it is perfectly possible that they could have a real working majority on many of the proposed Westminster bills anyway once Scots, Irish and Welsh based MPS are discounted.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Gervase
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:34 PM

If the Tory party were to enter a coalition with the Lib-Dems it would be short-lived. Cameron would want a mandate, so he would wait for the public's infatuation with Clegg to wane (and delay imposing some of the more draconian cuts that any new government will need), force through a policy that would sunder the coalition and go to the country again.
With Labour tearing itself to pieces in the wilderness and the Lib-Dems tarnished, the Tories would achieve a sizeable majority.
Then the fun will really start. To quote Will Hutton:
"The state will become a Conservative fiefdom, with even local police forces directly run by Tory politicians in the name of "democratic accountability". The City of London will not be reformed. Wealth will become ever more concentrated in fewer hands. Scotland, Wales and many English regions will be devastated by swingeing public spending cuts – almost their sole economic prop for the last decade – and by ongoing de-industrialisation.
"The management of an economy burdened by excessive private debt, fragile banks and a faltering economic recovery will be ideological. The prison population will grow even faster than under Labour as populist social repression intensifies.
"There will be some worthwhile improvements – the scrapping of ID cards and aspects of the Big Society programme which has been too quickly dismissed by liberal critics – but in the round Britain will become a meaner, less generous and more unequal society despite David Cameron's declared intentions. This will be Murdoch's Britain, with the BBC to be cut back and Sky's influence extended. Government will be in thrall to the right of centre press. The sale of our companies to the highest foreign bidder will accelerate..."
Still, there seem to be plenty of turkeys willing to vote for Christmas, like our Bonzo above.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:46 PM

I wholly agree with Will Hutton's analysis there.

Interestingly, I was considering voting Lib Dem because I think the new constituency boundaries make a Labour win in my constituency improbable - the wonderful Bob Marshal-Andrews only squeaked in last time - but I see the local conservative publicity repeatedly mentioning a constructive relationship with the LD's so they've bloody had my vote and I shall be voting Labour as the only chance to keep the conservative bastards out.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:17 PM

Sounds as if "the local conservative publicity " has worked in your case then...

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:34 PM

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge - PM
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:46 PM

<" I shall be voting Labour as the only chance to keep the conservative bastards out. ">

Hi Richard

I will be voting Lib Dem for EXACTLY the same reason as you - in my constituency we have Cameron's Eton chummy......Osborne !!

If the Conservatives do get in life will not be all plain sailing for them. As well as the global financial problems etc etc...Europe will raise it's head and the splits which have been papered over in the party will re-appear splitting the Tories once again right down the middle.

Hold on to your hats and buckle your seatbelts.

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:58 PM

I quite like the idea of splitting the conservatives down the middle - I've got a chainsaw, two felling axes and a splitting axe.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Jim McLean
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:43 AM

McGrath of Harlow, you were right about poiticians changing their mind. The following is an extract from the Scotsman newspaper:

Mr Clegg said at the weekend that it would be "preposterous" if a party which came third in votes continued to govern.

But yesterday, on a visit to Edinburgh, he said:

"If Labour does come third, people would find it inexplicable (that] Gordon Brown could carry on as prime minister. I will work with anyone who can deliver the greater fairness people want."

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: bubblyrat
Date: 04 May 10 - 07:15 AM

In answer to the actual thread-title question ; Yes, there is an outside chance that they COULD ! Those of the electorate who are likely to actually bother to USE their vote (which,in the interests of true democracy should,obviously,be compulsory ),are quite likely,in my opinion, to vote Lib Dem in order to show their contempt for, and dissatisfaction with,the other two major players.The extremist parties will also, I suspect,do much better than might otherwise have been expected,had the Blues and the Reds behaved with more selflessness,honesty,and decorum.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 04 May 10 - 07:44 AM

"In answer to the actual thread-title question ; Yes, there is an outside chance that they COULD !"

It seems to be a pretty slim outside chance though. The BBC site has a seat calculator and I put in 36.9% of the vote for the Lib Dems; 33.7% for the Conservatives; 25% for Labour and 4.3% for others. Incredibly enough on those figures it would still see Labour as the second biggest party on 204 seats with the Tories on 249 and Lib Dems some way back on 171.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 04 May 10 - 08:13 AM

I will be voting Lib Dem for EXACTLY the same reason as you - in my constituency we have Cameron's Eton chummy......Osborne !!

I fail to understand your objection to a chap simply because he went to Eton - inverted snobbery of the worst kind!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 09:17 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge - PM
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:58 PM

< " I quite like the idea of splitting the conservatives down the middle - I've got a chainsaw, two felling axes and a splitting axe.">

Hi Richard

I'll hold your coat.

FFOMAL......!!!

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 09:23 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs - PM
Date: 04 May 10 - 08:13 AM

< "I fail to understand your objection to a chap simply because he went to Eton - inverted snobbery of the worst kind!">

Hi bonzo

I don't object to Osborne because he comes from the same college as Cameron. That is just a co-incidence that sort of scrapes the icing off the cake.

I won't go into the reasons why I won't be voting for Osborne....but they are political not purely personal.

cheers

Mikel2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Gervase
Date: 04 May 10 - 10:20 AM

George Osborne didn't go to Eton, he went to St Paul's. That's probably why he was called 'oik' by his Bullingdon chums, who dangled him by the ankles dangled him by the ankles until he yelled "I am a despicable c**t".
On that basis the poor chap deserves a sympathy vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Gervase
Date: 04 May 10 - 10:36 AM

...and on more than one occasion, by the look of that post! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 04 May 10 - 12:04 PM

Facebook poll currently showing the following ...

23%
Conservative
23%
Labour
36%
Liberal Democrat
10%
some other party
8%
Don't know

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Stu
Date: 04 May 10 - 12:09 PM

"I fail to understand your objection to a chap simply because he went to Eton - inverted snobbery of the worst kind!"

Possibly, but then it might give some insight into why Cameron and the invisible (for the duration of this campaign) Osborne feel the need to cuddle up to the positively nasty Polish Law and Justice Party (as well as other such right-wing looneys as the Latvian Fatherland).

Tories get in, we're fucked. Pure and simple.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave MacKenzie
Date: 04 May 10 - 12:13 PM

"a Tory minority administration, a few seats short of a majority"

Is that a synonym for a few sandwiches short of a picnic?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 02:22 PM

Hi Gervase

Thanks for pointing out that George Osborne didn't go to Eton.

I got that from the press. Just shows you can't believe everything - or is it anything you read in the press.

cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 04 May 10 - 02:29 PM

Hi Jack

Osborne has appeared to have gone into hiding hasn't he??

I think Cameron has salted him away out of the clutches of the media !!

He hasn't been seen all that much here in his constituency either.

There is no doubt that he was found a very cushy safe seat here.....remember it was here that we had the "shennangins" of Neil Hamilton !!!! nuff said !!

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 May 10 - 02:33 PM

Trouble is, whatever the polls say about the LibDems, they still need to actualy win seats. The present government were elected with a low vote count - but they won most seats and that is what counts.

Mind you, whoever we vote for, it's always the governemnt that gets in:-(

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 04 May 10 - 03:23 PM

I think that the Tories will get in and they'll go on and on and on ...until they're caught out in some fiddle or other and then at some indeterminate time in the far future New New Labour will get in and they'll go on and on and on until they're caught out in some fiddle or other ... and the the Tories will get in again until ... round and round and round and round ...

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 04 May 10 - 03:57 PM

BBC calculator says - if 26% vote labour and 26% vote tory, and 38% vote liberal, Labour will have the most seats ...

How is this a democracy again?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Mrs.Duck
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:08 PM

Although stranger things have happened, I can't see the Lib Dems winning. Unfortunately, with so many voters disatisfied with the current government, many will vote Lib Dem as a protest and in so doing give the Conservatives a better chance of winning. I live in a Labour stronghold so do not have that dilemma but do not relish the thought of another round of Tory leadership. I may not be a great fan of Brown but actually find him more genuine than Blair and certainly far better than Cameron and his ilk.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:24 PM

So long as the Tories do not have an overall majority, there will be a majority in the House of Commons for giving people a chance to vote on changing the electoral system so that it will be impossible for any MP to be elected unless at least 50 per cent of the voters agreed to that happening.

Even if the Tories, who are against that, do manage to set up a minority government, they cannot stop that referendum happening.

That would mean that there will never again be a government elected on a derisory minority vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:25 PM

However, the only way to be rid of this unfair system is to vote lib as neither labour or tory have any intention of growing up and learning to cooperate in government with another party unless they have no choice.

PR is the publics only way to teach them to grow up.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:31 PM

If you vote Liberal in a seat where Labour is the only party that can beat the Tory, you are helping keep "this unfair system". And the same applies if you vote Labour where the Liberal Democrat is the one who can beat the Tory.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 04 May 10 - 04:56 PM

"However, the only way to be rid of this unfair system is to vote lib as neither labour or tory have any intention of growing up and learning to cooperate in government with another party unless they have no choice."

History actually shows that to be incorrect though. They might be tediously slow to implement it UK wide but Labour now say they favour it and of course have already set up PR in Scotland and Wales for those elections. Labour would have been guaranteed probably an almost permanent majority at Holyrood with first past the post, and at the time had a huge majority at Westminster, yet dor the devolved elections they went for PR after discussions with the other parties etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:15 PM

If you vote Liberal in a seat where Labour is the only party that can beat the Tory, you are helping keep "this unfair system". And the same applies if you vote Labour where the Liberal Democrat is the one who can beat the Tory.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:34 PM

and, unfortunately, where we have proportional representation, we get the loony minorities represented in parliament. Some may think this is fair but to have an extemist of any nature sat in a position of power goes against the grain as much as the current system.

So, as always, I propose a benign dictatorship with me at the head...

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Jim McLean
Date: 04 May 10 - 05:40 PM

If I lived in Scotland I'd be voting SNP, a party which would scrap Trident, abolish the House of Lords along with ID cards and all the redundant remnants of the Scottish Office. Fiscal autonomy would stop the argument regarding the Barnet formula and answer the English worry about Scottish MPs voting on English matters. I would suggest we remove the blue from the flag and leave the rest to Billy Bragg.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:16 AM

If the UK wants PR (surely it does?) then Lib Dem is the only way. Lab & Con are never going to go along with that because they know they have so much to lose!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:22 AM

If the UK wants PR (surely it does?) I'm not at all sure, Jim. See why a couple of posts above.

DeG

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Stu
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:40 AM

Don't forget the Tories unholy alliance with the Ulster Unionists - hardly the way to ensure the peace process continues without alienating even more republicans.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 May 10 - 06:55 AM

"If the UK wants PR (surely it does?)" I'm not at all sure.

So why not let people decide that for themselves?

In any case PR is just one possible voting reform. At the very minimum a system with a chance for people to put candidates in order of preferance would ensure that people who most voters rejected would not get elected. That should see off the BNP pretty effectively.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 10 - 07:04 AM

So why not let people decide that for themselves?

I'm not stopping them, Kevin:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 May 10 - 07:20 AM

But the Tory party is. If they have a majority there won't be a referendum on changing the electoral system. If they don't have a majority, even if they are able to form a minority government they wouldn't be able to stop one being held. (Unless Labour members, elected on a promise of such a referendum by October next year, rat on that pledge, which is of course always quite possible.)

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,The Smiler
Date: 05 May 10 - 12:26 PM

"Can the Lib/Dems win"

No, unless they get at least 40% of the vote and Labour 25% and Conservatives 25% or soemthing like that.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 10 - 12:41 PM

Even then it would not be sure. Smiler, Eg - 10 constituancies that all have a 40% vote for lib dem but 5 of them have a 50% vote for Labour and the other 5 have a 50% vote for Conservative - End result = 0 Lib Dems, 5 Labour and 5 Conservative. Yet the votes polled were 40%, 25%, 25 % as mentioned. Weird init!

Even with PR it means they would not have an overal majority.

DeG