BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?

Subject: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 09:36 AM

TYhere have been plenty of Middle East related threads to put this article under. But, I decided, right or wrong, it is now important enough for it's own place (as could not found a direct thread).

I found this article well researched, thought out, and presented. While some put this issue/discussion on the side burner, the article leads me to believe it may be the news maker of 2012.

Will Israel Attack Iran?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Greg F.
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 09:37 AM

Only if the U.S. backs the move.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Silas
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 09:41 AM

"Only if the U.S. backs the move."

Hardly. The US will back ANYTHING that Israel does.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: bobad
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 09:58 AM

"Hardly. The US will back ANYTHING that Israel does."

And this really seems to rankle the haters of Israel who would like to see it wiped off the map.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Little Hawk
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 10:04 AM

Here's another recent article on the same subject.

The Likelihood of attack on Iran in 2012

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 10:05 AM

Itteresting quotes from the article I posted:


Hadden (USA): "I don't know what the significance of American aid is for you."

Amit(Israel): "It isn't aid for us, it is for yourselves."

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Little Hawk
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 10:34 AM

That's an interesting, and I think an utterly fallacious viewpoint...but it must play great in Israel. It is themselves the Israelis are thinking about, but they may have a messianic enough belief in their own God-given importance that they imagine they're doing it for the entire world.

And you might say that about the Iranian leaders too. It's a case of grandiosity and megalomania on both sides as far as I'm concerned.

The Iranian regime, however, is the one who is really being threatened with being "wiped off the map" by 2 great nuclear powers...and repeatedly so. And who publicly questions or upbraids those 2 great nuclear powers for making such death threats?

To put it more pointedly: Who dares to?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 12:09 PM

""That's an interesting, and I think an utterly fallacious viewpoint""

It entirely depends on from how (the perspective) you view the quote in the article and the siuation. It does not seem anywhere like an "utterly false" perspective to me.

I suspect the meaning of the quote (from the discussion) had little to do with upholding the interests of the World, but more to do with supporting the interests of the USA (thay can differ).

A main interest of the USA has been financial, stable oil supplies and prices. The other interest, which has evolved, is keeping anti USA regimes at bay (Iran is clearly one), or cutting them down. Like it or not, Israel has been the closest and most stable USA ally in that region,with military and intelligence capacity they can mostly count on. So, keeping Israel in place and militarily strong has been a USA interest (they receive much aid). One can argue that this has not been an effective or the correct approach, but, regardless, it has indeed been an approach in the region.

Who has the "right" to be the most fearful and to take measures to defend (even proactively) their interests, Iran or Israel? I suspect both have a valid point and that is a main reasoon for the situation. Both feel increasingly sourrounded by unfriendly forces,fear for the future and act accordingly. I suspect that either country, with the support of some other nations, would prefer (for a variety of their own reasons) the the other would "dissapear".

What is clear to me is that both Iran and Israel have the most to loose from an direct conflict. While other countries may feel they have a stake in the matter and something potentially to loose (thus their actions), they have less to loose than the people of these two nations.

If there were no oil in the region, I wonder if the potential conflict would be treated more like the world deals with such matters in neighbouring African nations, with no such oil reserves?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: EBarnacle
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 12:22 PM

A neglected factor is that Iran's current regime has repeatedly stated that it intends to wipe Israel out. The means to do so will exist very soon. The conclusion of the article is that regime change is the only long term non-military solution. This is worth considering. As is stated at several points in the article, the genie is out of the bottle. Iran posssesses the knowledge base and the dispersion to resume their program after an attack and go back to designing and building nuclear arms.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Greg F.
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 01:42 PM

And this really seems to rankle the haters of Israel who would like to see it wiped off the map

No, it rankles those who object to those who would apologize for and excuse any and all atrocities the State of Israel cares to commit for any reason whatsoever.

And before you bring up the anti-Semitic shibboleth, anti-Zionism and its imperial policies is not anti-Semitism.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: MarkS
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 02:07 PM

Very likely after Iran nukes Israel.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: artbrooks
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 02:09 PM

Does anyone really think Israel has nuclear weapons? Based on exactly what proof? Greatest ever deterrent - based upon a myth.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 03:45 PM

Little Hawk- "Who dares to?" Some truth to that!
Too many people excuse the bullying and agressive takeover policies of Israel.

Zionist policies of Israel guarantee continued resentment of others, both Christian and Muslim, as they insist that your land is my land, and hold sole ownership of the nuclear threat in the region.

I cannot understand the support Israel gets from the U.S. and most European governments.

Digression-
Oil from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, except Saudi Arabia, ceased to be of any importance to the United States long ago.
Canada and Mexico are the other major sources of U.S. petroleum imports. (One might add Nigeria, if their country doesn't end up in a civil war between the Christian south and the conservative Muslin north. Another Sudan situation, only more explosive.)

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: artbrooks
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 04:00 PM

"sole ownership of the nuclear threat in the region"? Have you heard of Pakistan? It borders Iran and sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. And it really does have nukes.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Paul Burke
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 04:08 PM

Oi! Mordechai Vanunu. No, Israel has no nuclear weapons, and it needs to hide the fact that it has no nuclear weapons, which unlike Iran makes it immune from inspection, and it (mercifully unsuccessfully) advised apartheid South Africa how not to have nuclear weapons too.

USA policy is made by a few religious nutcases in Israel, Iranian policy is made by a few religious nutcases in Qom, and British policy is made in Washington. Usually by a few religious nutcases, but we've been spared a bit of that because the current top dog is only mildly nutty. And of course we've got our own homebrewed religious nutcases (see John Sentanamu).

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 04:29 PM

Yes, there is a Pakistan, but it is more interested in the Kashmir region and the duel here is with India.

Israel first built a nuclear weapon in the 1960s, but the Israelis maintained a policy of "ambiguity". One of their nuclear technicians told the British press details in 1986.

Israel refused to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (along with India and Pakistan, and North Korea.

It is believed that Israel has 75, but some estimates are as high as 400, nuclear warheads (various articles, Federation of American Scientists).

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 04:34 PM

""Oil from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, except Saudi Arabia, ceased to be of any importance to the United States long ago"".

Maybe you can persuade the USA policy folks of that?
Good luck :)

When one interest squeezes on the oil balloon in one location, it has a global impact, and the impact pops out all over the place (consumers often see it reflected as price increases), whether it makes sense or not. Maybe the USA could bomb the oil speculators (on second thought, it may only strike too close to home)

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Little Hawk
Date: 29 Jan 12 - 10:08 PM

Artbrooks, virtually everyone in the world believes that Israel has nuclear weapons...many nuclear weapons...including highly placed people in the Israeli government and military. That does not strike me as a myth. Israel's refusal to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty was well calculated on their part, allowing them to pursue a "don't ask - don't tell" policy, but fairly recent statements by some of their own government people have tacitly (though not openly) admitted to the fact that they do have those weapons. It's asinine to assert that it's a myth, in my opinion.

The only thing in the world that can possibly prevent Israel and the USA from attacking Iran whenever they finally decide to (aside from a sudden onset of sanity)....would be the open possession of a number of nukes and effective delivery systems for same by the Iranians. Therefore, I expect that Iran WILL move heaven and earth to acquire some nukes by any means possible, because without them they are f*cked, to put it bluntly. And they know it.

If they were to use them FIRST, they'd be even more f*cked...and they know that too. End of story.

They need nukes for the same reason Pakistan needed nukes...they have an enemy far more powerful than themselves! In Pakistan's case, the enemy is India. In Iran's case it is the USA/UK/Israeli Axis.

The Iranians, Americans, and Israelis all suffer from the same psychological disease: they cannot let go of or forgive what happened in the past. They still want to get even for what happened in the past. And that is why they are all three drifting toward a totally unnecessary and potentially disastrous war. Iran would suffer the worst in that war...but all will suffer greatly.

And for nothing.

The ultimate result of that war may well be the destruction of both the present Iranian regime and the present Zionist regime in Israel...the latter more slowly, because of the inevitable reactions and repercussions that the war will bring upon them in time.

Extreme paranoids with a pension for violence have a way of accumulating enemies...many enemies...bitter enemies...and finally too many such enemies to handle. That's what happened to the Germans in WWII. It can happen to Israel too. It can even happen to the USA. It just takes time, that's all.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: akenaton
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 04:09 AM

If Western culture is to survive, there has to be a showdown between the "cowboys" and the "indians"

I dislike the mantra of fundamentalist Islam almost as much as I dislike Western consumerist culture, but if we weigh things on the survival of humanity and the well being of the planet what side would we be on?

Western society is in terminal decline, as has befallen most powerful empires in history....perhaps Islam will save our descendents from the degradation of Rome.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 07:20 AM

An odd story?

?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 07:28 AM

Jimmy Carter said it (Israel and nukes).


Carter

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: kendall
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 08:06 AM

Last evening on the CBS program, 60 Minutes, Leon Pinetta, secretary of defense, when asked if we would take military action against Iran, he stated "Nothing is off the table." "We will not allow them to make a nuclear bomb".

I know they are a threat to Israel, or even our own ships in the Persian Gulf, but where do we get the right to forbid them having what so many other countries have, especially their enemy, Israel?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: artbrooks
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 08:55 AM

Some politician said, "trust, but verify". Personally, I don't trust unless I can verify, and the 'fact' that "virtually everyone in the world believes that Israel has nuclear weapons" means exactly nothing to me. Where is the data? When were the devices tested? In 1979 in the Indian Ocean? Prove it. IMHO, the best way for the Israelis to perpetuate this belief is to refuse to sign the Non-proliferation Treaty. Understand, I'm not saying that they do or don't have them, just that there is exactly no firm data one way or the other.

As to the basic question of will Israel attack Iran?   Israel's record over the past fifty years clearly indicates that they will not hesitate to do so if they believe an actual threat exists, and I see no reason why that should change. Given the current state of military technology, there is no reason at all that such a strike should involve nuclear weapons, and every reason to think that it can and would be very narrowly targeted.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Silas
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 08:59 AM

Kendall, I agree with you.







Now that must be a first!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: pdq
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 09:10 AM

Iran is a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. They signed a binding international agreement never to acquire nukes. We are going to enforce that agreement.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Silas
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 09:24 AM

"We are going to enforce that agreement."

Oh yea. Good old USofA. Putting the world to rights again

Tell you what matey, get your own house in order first eh?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: EBarnacle
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 09:43 AM

LH, even paranoids have enemies. Tell us, which side/countries have repeatedly vowed the destruction of the others?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 11:44 AM

From Huff Post Media:

New York Times Hypes Israeli Attack On Iran

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 11:53 AM

Another perspective

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 11:59 AM

Another interesting article, with no reference to Israel:)
Is a US-Iran maritime clash inevitable?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: GUEST,C. Ham
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 02:39 PM

Barry Rubin is one of the most respected policy analysts in Israel. He explains why neither Israel or the United States will attack Iran.

Barry Rubin on Israel and Iran

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: kendall
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 02:44 PM

I wonder if someone has already attacked Iran. Mysterious explosions, assassinated nuclear scientists, hacked computers vital to their project? Accidents?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: kendall
Date: 30 Jan 12 - 02:49 PM

Would they dare to mine the channel? Would they get away with sinking a few ships in the channel?
Surely they know better than to try a frontal assault. The way China is progressing they just might like to have a parking lot in their back yard!

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 11:02 AM

A reasoned perspective:
Zbigniew Brzezinski on Iran, 2010

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: pdq
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 01:38 PM

The Jimmy Carter foreign policy era was the worst in U.S. history and Zbigniew Brzezinski was the chief architect of that dreadful failed policy. His work lead to the establishment of the IslamoFacist state that Iran has became. He is a jackass.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Greg F.
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 04:18 PM

As opposed to the Judeao-Fascist state Israel has become?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: bobad
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 06:29 PM

Oy, such a Judeao(sic)-Fascist state that the majority of Israeli-Arabs choose Israel over a Palestinian state.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Janie
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 09:57 PM

What I am hearing on NPR is that USA officials are having nightmares worrying that Israel might, and also hearing on same station from Israeli commentators there are many distasteful (to the Israeli government) but real constraints that might prevent or restrain the Israeli government from doing so.

Let us hope.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: GUEST,999
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 10:10 PM

And let us also hope that Iran never gets the bomb.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: number 6
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 10:46 PM

from Der Spiegel (11/08/11)

Former Mossad Chief Seeks to Avert Israeli Attack

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: GUEST
Date: 31 Jan 12 - 11:58 PM

The answer to the question is "Yes"
adrien(beer)

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Janie
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 12:08 AM

A crystal ball would be nice to have, right about now.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: GUEST,999
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 01:58 AM

Looking back in Mudcat, I notice that a few people here just a few years back were saying Iran wasn't building a bomb.

SURPRISE!

For all the astute people on the 'cat, many have never tried to understand the Israeli mindset. They spout about the dangers of Zionism, but allow that same sort of Zionism from other people to pass unnoticed, or worse, they defend it in others. So let me say this one more time.

Iran (a country I prefer to call Persia) is run by fucking megalomaniacs, and when they aren't running it the fucking religious idiots are. You think it's ok to have nuclear fucking bombs in the hands of people like that? Gimme a fucking break.

I expect the world will hear within the next two weeks that indeed Persia has been making a bomb. I hope that before the usuals state the same shit all over again they will consider this: Israel's existence is what's on the line, not some philosophy 101 horseshit about love your brothers and sisters because deep down they love you.

The leader of Persia has stated he wants to see Israel wiped off the map. Spin that any fucking way you want, but the bastard meant it.

You think--any of you--that a nuclear war in the mid-East will be just between Iran and Israel? Any takers on that? Jesus Christ, THINK about it. The idea of Armageddon appeals to fundamentalists--basically, stupid people. Then they can go meet God, G-d, Allah, The Big Kahuna. You see it in the USA, Israel, Iran and many countries in the Arab 'federation'. Well, Armageddon is just around the corner, and while it wouldn't bother me if the leaders and ayatollahs and people who support that type of thing would do the world a favour and drop dead, it bothers me greatly that the world will find out the true meaning of the term collateral damage.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: bobad
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 07:48 AM

From biLL's link:

"This week, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to issue a new report that officially confirms for the first time that Iran is experimenting with technology that serves only one purpose: building a nuclear bomb."

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Silas
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 08:09 AM

"Oy, such a Judeao(sic)-Fascist state that the majority of Israeli-Arabs choose Israel over a Palestinian state."

Is there such a choice - news to me if there is.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: bobad
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 10:22 AM

"Is there such a choice - news to me if there is."

When polled.

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 05:36 PM

Israel: Iran could be nuclear within year

recent

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 05:43 PM

Israel, Iran and the US: Axis of instability

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: Ed T
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 06:00 PM

Why Hasn't Israel Bombed Iran (Yet)?

Subject: RE: BS: Will Israel Attack Iran?
From: GUEST,A.E. Newman
Date: 01 Feb 12 - 10:18 PM

IDJET....

WHY would Israel attack Iran when there are THREE USA Aircraft Carriers and ONE French Aircraft Carrier and ONE UK Aircraft Carrier currently in the "Persian/Arabian Gulf?"

Iran played her "war games" NATO has responded.