BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 18 Oct 14 - 03:22 PM

If I were a passenger on that cruise I would sue the quarantined person, personally, for the full cost of the trip and for the cost of another one to take instead. I mean, really.

Meanwhile I have sent a request to my local hospital, my city council, and my local newspapers, to ask them try a time (I suggested a week, I'll be happy with a day) with no vanity surgery and send the supplies to MSF (doctors without borders) instead.

How about we all do that? Who knows, it might work. And if you live in a big city even if they do it for one day, it might generate a serious block of supplies for where they are actually needed.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 18 Oct 14 - 04:08 PM

We need to get agricultural people thinking about this..they have equipment that could be used to disinfect, clean, deliver food, tea etc from a distance...i am wondering how patients are cleaned. There is vomit, feces, urine, blood. You need fever sheds or whatever with impervious walls and floors, perhaps irrigation channels like cow barns, ways to hose down and disinfect and trap the water,...and then burn it down or wjatever. Every land grant university. Should be told. To put every brain to work on this..espdcially what can be improvised from local resources.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 12:45 PM

MG are you suggesting-
The ultimate would be "fever islands" where travellers from central Africa with or without fever and anyone with fever are quarantined for 21 days or whatever safe interval is determined.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 01:01 PM

No...something better for those now lying dying in the streets..we cant wait for perfect bospitals to spring up and we have to protect the caretakers by making it as no hands on as possible. If that can be done with bamboo sticks..if they have bamboo there, great.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 01:54 PM

Two sticks?
See CDL-4 recommendations by CDC.
Ebola information and misinformation thread.
Positive pressure suit, etc. for safety.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 04:39 PM

I think we have to assume positive pressure suits are not always available. Clean rags are probably not available. Hefty bags are probably not available. Likewise soap, bleach, water bottles, tarps. Probably they are on their way to many areas.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Bettynh
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 05:58 PM

The quick-response team for within the USA will be from the US military.. I'm sure this makes complete sense logistically. Certainly, the military doesn't have to concern itself with taking volunteers or raising money for it. I can see the headlines about military takeover of US hospitals coming quickly.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jeri
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 06:36 PM

I don't want to get overly involved in these Ebola threads, as they seem to be full of insane paranoid fiction, out-weighing the occasionally intelligent comments. The medical professionals always have to deal with fear and nuttiness.

Military disaster response folks--medical, firefighters, and police--routinely (as in "required by regulation") engage in mass casualty/disaster response exercises with their civilian counterparts. (Can you say "FEMA"?)

This isn't about a "military takeover", it's about the military being designed to pack up and go anywhere, and coordinate between different organizations. It's about the military continuously training for biological warfare agent decontamination and treatment and having field hospitals that can be deployed and set up quickly, some of which DO have the capability of positive pressure isolation/quarantine.

It's also likely that, for a team such as that described, those on it did volunteer, and are also highly qualified.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Oct 14 - 06:58 PM

Yes indeed.

And positive pressure isn't needed, it isn't airborne.

What is needed are barriers - gowns gloves masks and lots of them. Blankets even, if you can use a lot of them.

Local and distant military could be doing things in country, and isolation could happen in transit areas outside, technically, all countries, for travelers.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Bettynh
Date: 20 Oct 14 - 02:08 PM

The Diane Rehm Show (a radio show) had an excellent overview of today's ebola circumstances.

Guests are:

Dr. Malonga Miatudila public health consultant; former public health specialist, The World Bank.
Dr. Rajiv Shah administrator, USAID.
Larry Gostin director, O'Neill Institute for National & Global Health Law at Georgetown University Law School; and director, World Health Organization Collaborating Center on Public Health Law & Human Rights.
Rep. Tim Murphy congressman, (R-Penn., 18th District).
Nell Greenfieldboyce science correspondent, NPR.
Dr. Clifford Lane deputy director for clinical research and special projects, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at NIH.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 21 Oct 14 - 11:48 AM

New case counts from the CDC website, updated yesterday:
Total Cases: 9216
Laboratory-Confirmed Cases: 4218**
Total Deaths: 4555**
**Numbers are lower than actual laboratory confirmed cases and deaths because stratified data are temporarily unavailable for Liberia.

I've watched both the NOVA and the Frontline on this, and the NOVA really seems to say the vaccine works. Does anybody know anything detailed about the vaccines?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Oct 14 - 12:05 PM

The Center for Disease Control says a positive pressure suit is needed. Ebola virus is Biosafety Level 4.
Positive pressure personnel suit (PPPS) with a segregated air supply is mandatory.

Mrrzy says it is not necessary.?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 21 Oct 14 - 10:29 PM

Yes, they use that at the CDC in case it's airborne.

In the field you're so far apparently OK with coverings. See here, for example.

Also, things are looking up in Monrovia, they have managed to open 2 maternity wards. For months now if you had a complicated delivery, you just died.

This is an improvement.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jeri
Date: 21 Oct 14 - 10:54 PM

Q wrote: "The Center for Disease Control says a positive pressure suit is needed. Ebola virus is Biosafety Level 4.
Positive pressure personnel suit (PPPS) with a segregated air supply is mandatory."

The CDC publishes guidelines for facilities. The suits should be worn when treating Ebola patients, period. Not "in case it's airborne". It's not airborne. The CDC guidelines are for hospitals in the US. I don't think the CDC actually has facilities for threating patients, so wouldn't use it "at the CDC" at all.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Bettynh
Date: 22 Oct 14 - 12:37 PM

Mrrzy, there's a basic difference between vaccines and drugs for treatment of active disease. Vaccines are given to healthy people to prevent infection. The drug described in the NOVA program was an experimental treatment drug, designed to work after infection to prevent virus replication within the body. The drugs currently on trial with healthy people are vaccines. Even if they prove non-toxic, further research will be needed to establish dosage and length of protection. They won't be any use to infected persons although they would be very helpful for care workers and frightened healthy people.

Meanwhile, the WHO has acknowledged that transfusions from ebola survivors may be used for treatment of active ebola. It presupposes laboratory equipment and transfusion supplies that probably don't currently exist in Liberia.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 22 Oct 14 - 12:57 PM

CDC Training Course for healthcare workers going to West Africa; Ebola.
http://www.cdc.gov.vhf/ebola/hcp/training-course/index.html?s_cid=cs_021

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Mrr
Date: 22 Oct 14 - 08:31 PM

I must have misunderstood, I really thought they were talking about a vaccine, not a treatment.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 23 Oct 14 - 12:10 AM

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/testing-of-canadian-ebola-vaccine-moving-as-fast-as-possible-newlink-ceo-1.2065137

The Canadian effort is a vaccine!

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 23 Oct 14 - 01:41 PM

A treatment would be a great thing too, but a vaccine, from the word cow because that is how they were invented (cowpox), fun fact, would be invaluable.
Not that big pharma won't value it anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 06:04 AM

This study from Yale and Liberia looks pretty bleak:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141023193539.htm

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-10/yu-wsi102214.php

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Bettynh
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 08:17 AM

Jack, a mathematical model that presupposes that no help is in place or coming fast to Monrovia and there is no response at all within the Liberian community itself is worse than useless. My respect for pronouncements from Yale University has dropped considerably.

From what I can see, the airport has been repaired. US troops have been building treatment centers and developing mobile labs. About 300 healthcare workers from Cuba have arrived. Both military and civilian training for healthcare workers is progressing rapidly. A full service hospital to treat healthcare workers who become infected will be finished within a month. The behavior of the people of Monrovia has changed to recognize diseased persons and isolate their contacts.

The response was delayed, that's true. But there IS a response and hopefully it will make a huge difference soon.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 11:45 AM

And shame on us for saying oh that is their culture we can not possibly get them to change. Lives were lost because of that. They can and did change, at great cultural cost of course, but hopefully the tide is turning now.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 12:33 PM

I am also getting the feeling that things are slowing or turning or something. Hope we're right.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 12:34 PM

a mathematical model that presupposes that no help is in place or coming fast to Monrovia and there is no response at all within the Liberian community itself is worse than useless

Of course it's useful. It shows what the consequences of inaction would be.

My respect for pronouncements from Yale University has dropped considerably.

Patronizing crap.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 02:08 PM

well, New York City now is. And surely a doctor coming from treating ebola patients, noble as he or she is, knows to lie low for a while.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 02:48 PM

New case counts, updated 10/22 but I added the Mali case which wasn't on the list. I hope these stay in columns...

Country          Cases          LabCases Deaths Dead%        Survivability
Guinea          1,540          1,289          904         59%        41%
Liberia          4,665          965          2,705         58%        42%
Sierra Leone          3,706          3,223          1,259         34%        66%
Senegal          1          1          -           0%        100%
Nigeria          20          19          8         40%        60%
Mali                  1          1          -           0%        100%
Total Africa          9,933          5,498          4,876         49%        51%
Spain                  1          1          -           0%        100%
United States          3          3          1         33%        67%
Total Else   4          4          1         25%        75%
Total World          9,937          5,502          4,877         49%        51%
Average death rate/survivability                28%        72%

Amazingly low death rate. There must be an absolutely tremendous advantage to getting IV fluids and decent medical care for the symptoms, allowing people's own immune systems to fight it off. Great news there.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 02:53 PM

Oh well. At least my bolding and italicizing worked... until the end. That last para shouldn't be bold.

At any rate, in the 3 main countries the survivability appears to be 51%; the numbers elsewhere are too small to be reliable but appear superb so far.

It's kind of neat (in the tidy sense) that there are 3 majorly affected nations, one an ex-French colony, one and ex-British colony, and one an ex-American settlement. If each of those rich western nations takes the forefront in helping the particular nation they originally helped found/imposed on the natives of the original local ethnic groups, it's a nice division of labor. At least they aren't all French; we (the US) really wouldn't care.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 04:15 PM

75% survived with I presume good care in one of the treatment places. No doubt that good medical care, hydration etc. works..strengthening the immune system should work, being in good shape to start with helps. keep it from spreading and then give everyone the best care possible. there is so much we could have sent..not sure ports are open now.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 24 Oct 14 - 11:26 PM

And the little girl in Mali has died after traveling by bushtaxi while bleeding out.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Bettynh
Date: 25 Oct 14 - 01:14 PM

A photo essay from Monrovia, Aug-Sept., 2014

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 25 Oct 14 - 02:14 PM

Dr. Spencer's girlfriend and two friends have been quarantined. Other friends are being sought.
He works at Presbyterian-Columbia University Medical Center, but has not reported to the hospital or seen any patients since his return.

The bowling alley has been closed.
CDC says dry surfaces can retain viable Ebola for several hours. The CDC sent a response team to Dr. Spencer's apartment building and his apartment cordoned off.

Ron Klein is Obama's "Ebola czar."

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 25 Oct 14 - 02:28 PM

Article in NY Times, possibility of transmission in sneezes.

"Ask Well, Ebola on Airplanes, Ebola in Sneezes." Dr. Donald G. McNeil Jr. Oct. 13, 2014.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: pdq
Date: 25 Oct 14 - 02:52 PM

Every position that Obama has called "czar" is illegitimate because they are found nowhere in the Constitution.

The guy's name is Klain, not Klein, and he was chief-of-staff, at various times, for Joe Biden, Al Gore and Janet Reno.

He organized the post-election protest in Florida 2000.

He is a lawyer, not a doctor, and was given the job because he will get at least $170K per year, perhaps $300K or more.

Obama does not feel the need to get confirmation or even disclose how much the US taxpayers will be giving this hack.

Obama has called emergency meetings about ebola and Klain doesn't even show up.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 25 Oct 14 - 03:18 PM

I hope there are taxis such as flatbed.trucks with separate cabs. I thinkthere is no way to disinfect an old car.safely.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Ebbie
Date: 26 Oct 14 - 11:49 AM

"I've known Ron Klain for over 20 years. He is smart, aggressive and levelheaded; exactly the qualities we need in a czar to steer our response to Ebola. He is an excellent choice," said Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in a statement.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/17/ron-klain-bio-resume-recount-stimulus-ebola-czar/17430563/

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 26 Oct 14 - 06:31 PM

Obama is hardly the one who started calling project managers "czars" - the energy czar is the first one I remember, and that was in the 70's.

I would still rather have someone with medical knowledge managing this particular project.

Case count is over 10K in the 3 countries I first heard called the hot zone on the radio today. Still aprox 50% survivable, much more so with decent medical care.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 27 Oct 14 - 03:16 PM

Any other Americans annoyed by ebola turning into an election issue? Or should it rightly be one?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Lighter
Date: 27 Oct 14 - 05:33 PM

I am more than annoyed.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 28 Oct 14 - 12:29 PM

look at dr. mercola's site from a few days ago...he quotes a doctor who has a..not cure..not sure proper word..believes he can accomplish a lot with high dose vitamin c (I have also read D), ozone therapy (involving hydrogen peroxide..I did not read the whole article as my connection stopped)...and ultraviolet light..I believe to blood. He believes the entire process would cost around $10..it sounds like it would involve IV...ozone hurts lungs but there are ways to bypass it he says. Some of these therapies were used against Spanish Flu in 1900s...given a bit of time, there will be ..not cures..but greater survival, probably using cheap and handy items....the challenge is to hold the expansion of the disease steady while knocking off the disease itself.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 28 Oct 14 - 02:29 PM

Interesting. And today is Salk's 100th birthday, yay!

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 29 Oct 14 - 10:21 AM

mg, you are seriously proposing experimenting on human beings with the sort of speculative bullshit Mercola promotes?

That's simply advocating mass murder. It's up there with the South African AIDS-denial cults.

A lot of useless measures were tried against the flu pandemic. None of them did a damn thing to stop it being the most lethal epidemic of all time. Nobody even knew what cytokines were, so of course they couldn't treat it rationally.

The Ebola virus is in every cell in an infected person's body. Yes you could kill it with UV, but you'd have to burn the patient to death in the process.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 29 Oct 14 - 12:05 PM

I am seriously proposing trying various things in an attempt to save more people and prevent the spread of an epidemic, which will ruin the economies of the said countries and have an economic devastation that could be very widespread, even without massive disease deaths. I am for, with no time to waste, throwing the kitchen sink at it. How are you going to know if it works or not without trying? They do not have a good chance now unless they are in a good treatment center. For the poor souls on the floor of what looks like a pig pen, lying in urine and feces, yes, I would experiment, based on known health improvements with vitamin c, and d I would add. UV light has been used for a very long time..it is in sunshine..i also would recommend getting them out into sunshine if possible. I do not know anything about ozone therapy but there are engineers etc. on the internet trying to build O2 machines that might help. Might help. Is there time for good experimentation? No. Is there time for a worked to death and scared to death nurse to even take notes? No. Is there a reason to call it murder when people are trying to save lives? No. And lives have been saved with very simple and cheap means..washing hands for infection..limes for scurvy. if there is almost certainty that some in the worst situations will die at a rate of over 50%..heading towards 90% sometimes in some places..I personally would try anything and everything.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 29 Oct 14 - 10:58 PM

Yes, and victims would likely want to try everything too, and therein lies a huge ethical pitfall possibility.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 30 Oct 14 - 10:34 AM

Updated case counts: Total=13,676 cases, 7606 confirmed by lab, 4910 dead in the three most affected countries. Outside cases are still negligeable.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 30 Oct 14 - 12:15 PM

Let's hope this keeps working

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/10/29/359878582/no-ebola-sil-vous-plait-were-french-the-ivory-coast-mindset

blicky

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 31 Oct 14 - 01:17 PM

They've said the outbreak in the Congo was ebola Zaire, not the same strain as is beaking out in West Africa, but I can't find what strain it IS that is in W. Africa, does anybody know?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 31 Oct 14 - 02:30 PM

EBOV was formerly referred to as Ebola Zaire.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 04 Nov 14 - 02:16 PM

New case counts as of Halloween:
13540 total, 7702 lab-confirmed, 4941 deaths. West Africa alone in these numbers, everybody else is negligeable.

An inhalable vaccine is showing promise. Ethics of testing during an epidemic remain, but hey, there is the epidemic and there is the possible vaccine, what are you going to do?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 05 Nov 14 - 12:54 PM

"U.S. health authorities have expressed hope that a new vaccine will bring an end to the outbreak that has killed about 5,000 people and infected close to 14,000."

The article (Voice of America) goes on to say that the number of new cases is declining.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 05 Nov 14 - 01:46 PM

In Liberia, yes. Increasing, however, in Sierra Leone. Decreasing also in Guinea, where this particular outbreak started.

The genetics are very interesting - from this article in Science, after which 5 of the authors died of ebola, it seems that the kid that got it from an animal in Guinea gave it to everybody who's given it to everybody else. There have been no new inputs from non-human animals into the human population. Furthermore, apparently a village's worth of people from Sierra Leone went to a funeral for a faith healer in Guinea who'd been treating ebola patients, and 12 of the women came back with 2 strains of the virus and every single case in Sierra Leone traces back to that one funeral.
Meanwhile apparently nobody in Mali has broken out with ebola since that poor child went home, but she died 10/24 so it hasn't been 3 weeks yet.