BS: UK General Election?????

Subject: BS: General Election?????
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 06:21 AM

This looks interesting, 62 majority?? could the blonde idiot really be that popular - heaven help us!!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 06:27 AM

The underlying reason why Johnson wants a snap general election is so that labour doesn't have time to elect a new leader - Kier Starmer, under whom labour would most likely win, whereas under Corbyn labour would most likely lose!!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 06:38 AM

we live in interesting times. Wobbly Boris versus the composting geriatric and Farage as referee!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 07:27 AM

Well, as predictions last time gave the Tories an overall majority of over 100 seats and they ended up with no majority at all, I'm feeling all cock-a-hoop!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: peteglasgow
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 08:14 AM

i'm very cautiously optimistic , steve. surely sometime there has to be good news - and johnson is being undone by his own arrogance it seems. however, beer news -our local brewer jennings (owned by marstons) is soon to stop production of cocker-Hoop bitter, and snecklifter. they are changing the name of Jennings bitter to 'Dark Knight' or something. nobody knows why.....

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 09:08 AM

Polls are polls and should be treated with a healthy degree of scepticism at this distance from an election. For example this has just been posted in a live news feed:

New polling from ComRes shows just over one-third of Conservative voters less likely to vote for the party if there’s a no-deal Brexit.

It shows 35 per cent of people who voted Tory in 2017 say they would be “less likely” to do so again if the Boris Johnson takes the UK out of the EU on a no-deal basis.

Among all voters, 42 per cent report that they are less likely to vote Conservative in this instance.

Almost two thirds of voters, 64 per cent, report that they think ‘the cost of daily essentials’ will get worse in the event of a no-deal outcome.

The poll was commissioned by 38 Degrees as part of a new people-powered ‘no to no-deal’ campaign.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: peteglasgow
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 09:19 AM

every day i try to not watch the latest news from the westminster circus -(it's so dispiriting and repetitive and in light of world events, trivial) and every day i fail. but now it ain't quite so bad - anyone else see a few chinks of light appearing in this dark scene? the more we see of BJ's tactics and demeanour the more he appears as a confused lightweight.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 09:49 AM

Elsewhere I referenced "The Hunting of the Snark" and that seemed a good characterisation of Johnson. For example (from memory)

He had only one notion
For crossing the ocean
And that was to tingle his bell.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Mr Red
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 10:11 AM

We live in interesting times.

My feeling is that the "Shy Tories" will not tell you in sufficient numbers to give a useful stat.

38 degrees is a self selective sample, unreliable in any poll.

But 48% of Tory voters might be tempted to teach their leaders a lesson but wouldn't vote Labour.

48% of labour voters - you get the idea.

and of the 52% them will be disgruntled voters realising the whole mess is far more complex than politicians have brain cells for.

So all in all, a percentage of the above will want to show their frustration. I predict, without any certainty, a hung parliament.
Theresa May might have got her majority but Trump light has lost his appeal.

I read an article by Andre Geim and he is saying "ferchrissakesgetonwithit, but don't expect a happy outcome without a deal"

FWIW He is an Ignoble (frog in magnetic field) and a Nobel Prize winner for graphene. Left Russia because they shunned him for being a yokel. Left Netherlands because he wanted his equally brainy wife on his research team. He is at Manchester Uni. If anyone deserves listening to - he is my man!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 10:15 AM

For clarity, Mr Red, the survey was by ComRes, but funded by 38 degrees.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: JHW
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 11:16 AM

Oh no not another one!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 11:19 AM

Never mind! Farage lies in wait.Just look what he did in the EU elections and remember labours boast of a plus 500 seats gain in the council elections turned into a 500 loss.

The eggs are still incubating

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 11:22 AM

Toriwes no longer have a majority in Parliament
KALOO KALAY
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 11:30 AM

From Lee's resignation speech:

"I have reached the conclusion that it is not possible to serve my constituents' and country’s best interests as a Conservative Member of Parliament," he said in a statement.
"This Conservative government is aggressively pursuing a damaging Brexit in unprincipled ways. It is putting lives and livelihoods at risk unnecessarily and it is wantonly endangering the integrity of the United Kingdom."
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Mrrzy
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 12:10 PM

Would you mind, if you have a general election, voting out Trump? We would be grateful. Signed, Mrrica.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 12:54 PM

I am afraid our hands are a bit full with Britain Trump


Of course, we would NEVER call him "Britain Trump". "British Trump", maybe. "Britain's Trump", again maybe.

He has just spoken in the House of Commons. It did go well. Here are a few of the commentators view:

* I haven't seen a prime minister take such as kicking in the Commons as Boris Johnson is experiencing now since... well, probably since the last time Theresa May stood at the despatch box. But you know what I mean.

* Boris now floundering in response to Hilary Benn. Much more of this and the 1922 will be getting a raft of letters asking for Theresa May to come back.

* He has never been an especially effective Commons performer. Chamber doesn't play to his strengths. He needs laughter, an audience which wants to play along and give him energy. Today he's getting the exact opposite.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 12:55 PM

("It did go well" should be read in a sarcastic voice)

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 04:18 PM

An interesting poll that started this thread.
I'm one of those who treats any poll these days with a great degree of scepticism.
But this one exceeds all expectations of polls.
In its first panel it predicts that The Brexit Party will get 12.9% of the votes, but no seats.
In the second it gives a 7% chance of a Conservative/Brexit coalition. It's difficult to be part of a coalition government if you have no seats in Parliament.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 04:24 PM

I’m sure your unprincipled mob could find a way to do it, Nigs. After all, they’ve apparently got one of those ‘‘unelected bureaucrats’ that people like you voted Leave to escape from running the government now.

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 04:30 PM

" Conservative/Brexit coalition"
A Right wing nutter and a fascist - you haoppy wityh that Nig ?
You disappoint me
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 04:50 PM

I will take anyone that can lead us to the promised land. If remainiacs fall by the wayside that would be a bonus. Perhaps we need Joshua#s trumpets to drown out their perpetual whinging and whining. I am sure I could rustle upa few ram horns,

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: keberoxu
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 05:11 PM

Nicholas Soames:
"Grandpapa, is it true that you are the greatest man in the world?"

Winston Churchill:
"Yes, now bugger off."

Reuters: "I will be voting against the government tonight with a very heavy heart"

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 05:36 PM

If that is the figure Putin has decided.......

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 06:23 PM

I wonder what wheezes Young Dominic Cummings has for tomorrow?
The Ruy Lopez, the Italian, the Sicilian Defense, the French Defense, or the Caro Kann?
We are a ways away from being subjected to the dulcet tones of Ms Abbot screeching a song!

Subject: RE: BS: General Election?????
From: peteglasgow
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 07:39 PM

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha and one more feckin' ha!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 09:23 PM

Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Britain’s World War Two leader Winston Churchill, will be expelled from the Conservative Party after voting against Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Brexit. From Keberoxu's link above.

What does this mean? Does he have to choose another party? Or are they somehow 'unelecting' him - is he out of parliament completely? If Johnson needs a majority, why is he discarding members?

Inquiring American minds want to know.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Stanron
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 09:43 PM

Stilly River Sage wrote: Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Britain’s World War Two leader Winston Churchill, will be expelled from the Conservative Party after voting against Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Brexit. From Keberoxu's link above.

What does this mean? Does he have to choose another party? Or are they somehow 'unelecting' him - is he out of parliament completely? If Johnson needs a majority, why is he discarding members?

Inquiring American minds want to know.

He is a member of Parliament and will remain a member of Parliament until the next General election. Withdrawl of the whip means he can no longer stand for election as a member of the Conservative party. He can stand as an independant member or as a member of another party. If he stands for election without being a member of a party he would have to bear all his own expenses. If he stood as a member of a party, that party would pay the expenses.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 10:05 PM

Thank you! Excellent answer, and what I hoped was the case. Will other parties support those purged members, do you think?

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Stanron
Date: 03 Sep 19 - 10:16 PM

Nicholas Soames voting to force Boris to not do what he had promised to the electorate, is not a million miles away from Brutus stabbing Ceasar. It is the ultimate betrayal. Boris stood for leadership on the promise that the UK would leave the EU on Oct 31 deal or no deal. A sub section of the party do not want Boris to succeed at anything.

My perception is that if the Conservative party does not deliver an exit from the EU in this, or the next, session it will destroy itself.

Some rebels have moved to the Liberal Party. I don't expect many to move to Labour.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 02:28 AM

"I will take anyone that can lead us to the promised land."
MAYBE JOHNSON CAN ARRANGE A PARDON FOR THIS SAVIOUR OF MODERN TORYISM?
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 02:56 AM

Will other parties support those purged members, do you think?

It is the other way round. The individuals may decide to become members of other parties. There is often a symbolic move to show you have joined the new party. This is what happened yesterday when, during the Prime Ministers speech, Phillip Lee stood up from the Government benches and crossed over to the Liberal Democrats seats.

But if we took Nicholas Soames as an example, he agrees with the Conservatives on most other matters and had been a member since his youth. He my stand as an Independent, but the Lib Dems, for example, would not finance him as an independent.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 03:09 AM

I don't expect many to move to Labour. Not even labour want swamp rats!

Labour will be destroyed in an election. Luvvie labour has betrayed the heartlands , 17.4 million Brexiteers plus those that respect democracy.
Revenge is a dish best served cold resolutely and with feeling.

Watching Labour's steady decline in the polls is a joy to watch.
Will compo cross the rubicorn and destroy his party?
Has Cummings a deadly plan to force his hand?

Indeed We live in interesting times!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Mr Red
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 03:26 AM

It's difficult to be part of a coalition government if you have no seats in Parliament.

Tactical canditature. You field only one candidates where the strongest chance gives victory to one of the cooperating parties. It was done by the lib-dem/greens/PC etc in the last by-election.

And for added clarity foremost in the Wiki description of ComRes is: ComRes . The company is prominent in the British media through its regular voting intention polls for ITV News, the Daily Mail......
rather leaning to the right for a start. Though the description goes on to subsidiary clauses about more general customers.

The problem with polls at the moment is "Shy Tories" and by inference from the performance of Labour "Shy Corbynites". Though I hold with my prediction that if they are that Shy they will be coy about the intention of giving their favourite a beating.

Welcome to the madhouse!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 03:31 AM

Polls only have meaning when:
The proposed voting event is close to time.
The differences between teams is greater than 10%

Even with those caveats polls can still be hopelessly wrong.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Mr Red
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 03:42 AM

ComRes - As a registered market research agency, ComRes is exempt from the UK's Telephone Preference Service, and can therefore conduct computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) across the country

Ever wondered why the telephone rings and as soon as the answer machine clicks-in, the call is dropped?

Then there is the phenomenon where when you get people angry, they lean to the right. I make a connection. And polls are statistical, small lean, error big enough to fool a first past the post system!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 04:47 AM

Labour sez we'll agree to an election when there is legislation in place to make no-deal impossible. The LibDems and SNP say the same. The Tories are frantically trying to blame Labour for denying the people the opportunity to "settle the matter" via an election, in other words for not blundering into Johnson's bear-trap. They seem to have forgotten that it was their party who started this pantomime over three years ago because they were running scared of Farage and their own right-wing backbenchers. We are seeing the opposition parties playing a straight bat, doing what oppositions are supposed to do, using established and constitutional parliamentary procedures to oppose the government, taking the interests of the country into account. It isn't their problem that the government hasn't got a majority. The Speaker is being consistent in defending the sovereignty of Parliament, and we should be grateful for that as he's preventing Johnson, proven untrustworthy, unelected and at the helm of a minority government, from acting like a dictator. He certainly knows how to make enemies, does Bozza, and he seems to be working on his own more "moderate" troops first... What a desperado.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 04:58 AM

It's fascinating to see how Trump's antisemitic "Jews who don't vote for us are stupid" attitude - the bastard gets everywhere nowadays, even to the Muccat threads
Our version is "anybody who doesn't vote for us are "swamp rats"
Patriots hating the people they claim to represent is as old as politics itself
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 04:59 AM

The fact is that nobody trusts johnson any more, so his days are numbered. As for raving catholic arsehole mogg, words defy me!! I look forward to a Starmer/Benn administration for a return to decorum and sense.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 05:21 AM

I told you you were making progress, Bonzo!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 05:49 AM

"I told you you were making progress, Bonzo!"
"Catholic asrsehole"
Don't think so Steve
There are times these arguments that I wish that some of our 'supporters' would take Phillip Lee's dignified example and cross the chamber
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 06:09 AM

Well. I suppose the Catholic bit was a bit gratuitous but I'd agree with the other bit... I think Rees-Mogg's slouch mode last night will come back to haunt the arrogant sod big-time.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 06:34 AM

"gratuitous"
A little 'Bozo' I think and it wes him I was referring to when I mentioned 'crossing the chamber'
He is either not the full shilling or he deliberately sets out to offend - either way, he never fails to be a pain in the arse
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Iains
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 07:46 AM

Getting more and more hysterical.
Compo bleats for an election and then backs off.

The only way the remainiacs have a leg to stand on is to seek legitimacy through the ballot box.

Their reluctance speaks volumes.

Meanwhile the lawful majority are getting sick of their will being thwarted by rebels.

If so confident go get a mandate from the people! 'are you all frit'

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 09:51 AM

To nobody in particular
Corbyn announced last night that he is happy for an election, but the first step is to prevent Fuhrer Boris from crashing out without a deal first - that was the argument put last night and it was that which kicked out Boris's "leave at all costs" attempts - democratically
Would someone point that out to Lord Haw-Haw
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 10:10 AM

Labour sez we'll agree to an election when there is legislation in place to make no-deal impossible.
Surely that means, that if legislation is passed to make no-deal illegal, a General Election could be held before 31 October.

Is that viewpoint even reasonably feasible?

What is to prevent the Conservative Party (once purged of members who oppose the manifest on which they stood) from campaigning that, if elected, they would repeal the law on no-deal exit, and move straight to having such an exit. The law must be repealable on the basis that no parliament may bind its successor.

I'm not suggesting that Boris has thought that through in advance, but it is possible that Corbyn has not thought of that possibility.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 10:17 AM

Sorry did I say catholic?? I'll change that to "not Church of England" - but still a "broad church" mind !!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 10:21 AM

That idea has been mentioned in quite a few places, Nigel. I am sure Corbyn's team understand that risk very well. In fact, there was a PLP meeting this morning that discussed it and was said to be in near unanimous agreement that an election should not be called until the legislation had been both given royal assent and acted upon. One attendee also said that they were the ones voting, so even if Corbyn wanted to go just on the royal prerogative, they would not support that. That is that attendees view, naturally.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 11:46 AM

"General Election could be held before 31 October."
I would guess that as far as Barmy Boris is concerned, that would negate the reason from holding a general election, especially having culling so many of his/your MPs
You have proved yourself willing to allow your Prime Minister to removing MPs democratically but I would have thought that there are many honourable members of your party who believe in democracy would happily lie in front of his steamroller the way you have
If their aren't your party is a bigger sham than I believed it to be
Do you really believe Party members will go off and select new representatives in the hope they fit in with what Boris is demanding ?
If you do, you have a lower opinion of your party than I have
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 01:11 PM

a General Election could be held before 31 October.

Is that viewpoint even reasonably feasible?

Only if 2/3 of the house vote to do so, Nigel. That is the rule as per the fixed term parliament act 2011. Brought in by Cameron and intended to hamper the opposition. He cocked up with the referendum. Looks like he has dropped BoJo the clown in it too. Karma is a word that springs to mind :-)

So, feasible, yes. Likely? I'm sure you can figure that one out.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election?????
From: Raggytash
Date: 04 Sep 19 - 01:21 PM

Something my father taught me.

Never fight unless your going to win.;;

Pick your time, your place.