BS: Disruptive tech and future transport

Subject: BS: Disruptive tech and future transport
From: Mr Red
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 11:10 AM

Tony Seba - predicts - The video is 1 hr long. So not many will get to the end. But he has several messages:

1) When several technologies come together at a price, the adoption isn't linear, it is S shaped. With rapid mid 80%. eg a picture of NY horse-drawn vehicles with 1 ICE to ICEs with one Horse-drawn - 13 years. iPhone/Android 2007 - 13 years and where are we on that curve?

2) The convergence of electric vehicles (EV), batteries, computing silicon, AI, cloud/internet, autonomous vehicles (AV) have been coming together and he predicts peak oil in 2021. Which, who cares if he is 3 years out, or 5 - the juggernaut is coming! We see the hype, the reality will follow. And it will happen quickly, prices are already near right.

3) by 2030 60% of cars will be AV EV Taxi, in the US anyway. And the cost will favour their use.

4) there will only be 2 (maybe 3) systems, think iPhone/Android, Mac/PC, Tory/Labour (SNP which is disruptive, ne c'est pas), Reps/Dems. Others please specify.

Of course my prediction is that when we are all dependent on 5G, AV Taxi, etc all it will take is another disruptive factor, like:

A) COVID-19 the Sequel - maybe but that may accelerate home-working, pizza delivery by AV eg. Amazon have ordered 100,000 EV vans and maybe they will eventually serve as drone hubs (my fear).

B) Solar flares/coronal mass ejections (& I don't mean vomit or diarrhea!) - it will happen and we don't know when. I worry about the back-up plans - or lack thereof, once we depend on 3/4G (5G is more susceptible). And panic will be all to obvious, look around.

Have a nice day y'all...........................

Subject: RE: BS: Disruptive tech and future transport
From: Charmion
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:46 AM

Mr Red, electric vehicles are on the market in Canada, but uptake is very limited because they don’t have the range for our distances and recharging is still very slow. So if we are all on an S curve, only a few of us who live in densely populated areas are anywhere near a convergence point.

Even old technologies like railways and telephones are challenged to make money in Canada without plenty of government help. Canada is not unique in this; Russia and large parts of Africa and South America are in similar situations.

Subject: RE: BS: Disruptive tech and future transport
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:54 AM

Unfortunately the percentage who live in crowded cities is already in the region of 50%. That is a large market and crowded streets for car manufacturers. And a wave of momentum that Government will legislate for. It will demonstrate their green credentials, visibly. Be warned.

I can see riding on that wave will be a healthy market for tow trailers loaded with batteries (and PV), (and caravan+battery too, because towing will reduce the range). Round airports you get huge coaches with plenty of luggage storage that still find the need for a luggage trailer. Limits define solutions.

Charging points will increase with demand. It just needs that true fast charge battery to make it feel the same as petrol. Tesla are halfway there. The momentum is growing, the research funds shadow that.

FWIW, in the video, Tony Seba compares the road deaths (Tesla figures) for AV and human. The ratio is humongous. Add a pinch of salt and it is still compelling.

Price will drive it and he predicts that vector. I aim to be around to see how it pans out.

Subject: RE: BS: Disruptive tech and future transport
From: Jim Martin
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 10:56 PM

Too much dependancy on recharging points - vehicles should be designed for a speedy way of sliding batteries out and in at filling stations so it takes no longer than refuelling but massive investment needed in developing infrastructure - going to take decades at the present rate of progress!

Subject: RE: BS: Disruptive tech and future transport
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 05:53 AM

those decades are going to be shorter than you think. Predicting the future is notoriously humorous in hindsight.

the present rate of progress - that's the point about disruptive technologies, and "S" curves. They ain't linear, but look it at first. They provide an advantage that established tech can't compete with and can't change till they have paid off their investment that established them. So the disruptives have an easier wave to surf.

I can remember when the saying was no-one ever got fired for buying IBM - Huh? They is big, but there are bigger competitors now! I can remember when hard disks were never in a position to compete with mag tape, but were predicted to, where did that go? RAM was never cheap enough to supplant mag core, er, um, that ship sailed within 5 years. Scale brings costs down, and with a few additional pluses, off it ramps, in an "S". It is the coming together of several elements that give the advantages, we tend to see parts of the aspects and tut, not the whole.

My worry with transport is the inevitable mix of AV and human drivers, the idiots will drive to it (at vehicles) and expect the AV to respond the way they think it will. They do it with human drivers and look at road deaths! And who ya gonna believe? Who shouts the loudest, idiot or AI code?

Watch this space.