BS: Three Billion New Capitalists

Subject: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: robomatic
Date: 25 May 05 - 11:02 AM

- is the name of a new book by Clyde Prestowitz. In the same vein as columnist Thomas Friedman of the New York Times, he is looking at current world conditions for clues as to the near future, a terrain most of us will inhabit. In this case, Prestowitz sees in the rise of (more or less 'free') enterprise in India and China, that the economy of the world is moving significantly to the East.

Amazon Books has a couple of mini-reviews of the new book here:

Prestowitz

Thomas Friedman, who recently published "The World Is Flat", is wondering where has American initiative gone, or at least who will fight for it:

C.E.O.'s M.I.A.

The overall sense is that this is good for the world. It will lead to a more equitable share of the world's markets to the people of the world. It does not bode well for countries which do not prepare for this world, in particular the United States. This is true irony, as the United States has led in breaking the back of the Soviet Union's Communist hegemony, and this new rapidly evolving world is a direct result.

Other parts of the world not buying in are some of the Arab states and most of Africa. The torsion between the new globalization which is continuing apace and traditional cultures which are being 'passed over' was addressed (not solved) in Friedman's book: "The Lexus and the Olive Tree."

It will inevitably lead to some sort of world regulation, or at least a restructuring of the United Nations, because we are already seeing what kind of things go wrong in a world where big corporations can 'boss' small governments.

T. R. Reid has shown how the European Union is already leading the States like a horse to water and making it drink as well in certain matters of trade, and Friedman recently illustrated the same thing in a TV special on The Discovery Channel:

The United States Of Europe

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: bobad
Date: 25 May 05 - 08:00 PM

Historically all the world's dominant powers reach their zenith at some point and then begin a gradual decline as others begin their ascendancy. Perhaps the USA has attained it's apogee and now is the time for others (the EU, China ?)to take over, this is neither a good or bad thing it is just a product of shifting economic influences. The big question in my mind is: is the US willing to accept this eventual diminution of it's global status gracefully or will it go kicking and screaming ?

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Bobert
Date: 25 May 05 - 08:17 PM

Yeah, the US is practically in the history column and why? Well, I'll tell ya why. Bad policies. Everywhere you look, the US has taken nilistic approaches toward policy decisions... This isn't all about the governement but its about people's choices which are like micro-policies...

"Ahhhhh, whaddayathink, honey, the girly car that get's 40 mpg 'er the, ahhhhhhh, Caddie Es...ca...laide?"

Yeah, the US had it all about 10 years ago but failed to recognize it's position as not only a global power but a global role model... All we have seen is a globaql "bear market" as the US has been lappin' up the harvests of others and now, guess what? Well, I tell ya... We're gonna get our butts whupped and if we go another four years without straightening out Boss Hog's money grab by outsourching, we will not only slip closer toward Haiti and a model but we also find ourselves militarially vulnerable...

And, BTW, the Dems has as mich to do with this as the Repubs so please don't make this another boring defend Bush thread....

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Ebbie
Date: 25 May 05 - 08:24 PM

Newsweek (yes, that infamous red rag has a long section on the new century and China's role in it.

I wonder- has any "superpower" ever given over, gracefully?

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 26 May 05 - 03:47 PM

well, Britain has adjusted fairly well to its loss of superpower status.

in a globalized economy with so much interdependence going on there really is no need for territorial expansion when countries can become dominant players economically. That is what the neocons fail to understand, by trying to maintain Americas military superpower status they are losing the middle class, the productive base of their economy. Ironically, they are trying to attain for America something it already has in international economic prestige. It still is the worlds biggest economy, and the dollar is the international currency of choice.
(However it wasnt too long ago when the Pound sterling was the international currency). ANd the US economy is declining, not only is production being outsourced, so is innovation, lately the new trend is to have the product developed in Asia and slap on the company brand and use the marketing power of companies like Walmart to sell the product. So it doesnt help if your kid studies to be an engineer if the innovation is outsourced as well.

When I was in Europe last May, all the news coverage was on the entry of 10 more countries into the EU making it an economic union of nearly 500 million people. On returning to Canada, NOrth American news barely breached this topic.

in the end economics trumps all,

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: akenaton
Date: 26 May 05 - 05:19 PM

Who was the old seer who prophesied that "The yellow race will rule the world"

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: robomatic
Date: 26 May 05 - 05:37 PM

Guest, petr: I had a message substantially like yours but my computer hiccuped or the website went down at just the wrong time. I think the US will yield power when it can no longer afford it. I think that in the normal course of things this is to be expected regardless of who is President, although of course an internationally astute US leader could prolong US power substantially by assuring US respect and not spendthrifting the economy.

I think historically speaking the most influential 'powers' were the Romans and the British. I think one could argue that the US is an extension in time of the British.

There are some nice recordings of George Benard Shaw, who lived until 1951 and apparently liked to wax avuncular before radio microphones. He made some comments about the vast quantities of 'brown' peoples being governed by the English and how some day the colonial 'tail' would inevitably 'wag the dog'. I don't know if that is to what akenaton is referring. But capitalism wise, that is what we may be seeing, and from a global point of view, it's past time.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: GUEST
Date: 26 May 05 - 05:52 PM

The great benefit for the rest of the world is America's religious fundamentalism getting hold of the reins of power. As throughout history, those reins are then pulled tight and the forward momentum is lost. Meanwhile, other countries not reined in by bigotry and ignorance forge ahead. Unfortunately history also shows that dying empires don't usually go quietly and the Middle Eastern operations of the present time are just the first death throes of a doomed Empire. We have to hope that not too many of us suffer from the thrashing tail.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: DougR
Date: 27 May 05 - 02:44 PM

Hey, Bobert learned a new word! "Nilistic"! Right on, Bobert!

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: DougR
Date: 27 May 05 - 02:48 PM

Seriously, though, if those countries (China-India and others) are seeking to become the number one economic powerbrokers of the future, why on earth did they choose Capitalism as their vehicle? From what I have read here on the Mudcat, most Catters believe (the charge being led by Bobert of course)that the capitalistic economic system is dead!

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Ebbie
Date: 27 May 05 - 02:57 PM

Sorry, Doug R- Bobert may have learnt a new word but you evidently have not. That is not how 'nihilistic' is spelt. *G*

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: DougR
Date: 27 May 05 - 08:05 PM

And I am well aware of that, Ebbie, even if your buddy is not.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 27 May 05 - 08:17 PM

China terms itself as a country having 'socialism with Chinese characteristics', it has all but dropped communism as a means of economic and social control because communism did not work. Hence it has tilted towards a more free market economy. It is certainly not a liberal country nor is its government liberal. The power still rests with one party and they still control all aspects of life.

Instead of using communism as a means of exerting control the government here uses nationalism. If you look at the wording in newspaper articles where China feels threatened by outside powers then they will appeal to the Chinese people by playing on the feelings that the motherland has been insulted or that it is threatened.

Living and working here I see the Chinese are firmly grasping the idea that making money is not wrong. They are inately business minded. They drive hard bargains and prefer a win loose situation rather than a win win situation. They also take a long term view of business and will plan carefully. Westerners tend to take a short term view and added to which trying to understand the Chinese thinking and culture is not easy.

The standard of living has risen for many Chinese, however at the same time many are also getting poorer as the economic benefit is not evenly spread throughout the country. There are huge differences between the city and the countryside. This has resulted in riots in many parts of China. In many ways the government cannot afford to be liberal as a strong hand is needed to prevent China from fragmenting or descending into social chaos.

There are many rich Chinese here and there is a growing middle class who aspire to make more money to raise their standard of living further, send their children overseas to be educated and to make sure they have the wherewithal to retire comfortably. Communism could never give them that so yes they have grasped capitalism but at the same time allow a one party rule.

That one party rule maintains a firm grip because if it fails to deliver then the prospects of social upheaval would mean a challenge to that one party rule. In the past when the Chinese decided they had had enough of an emporer thern they would 'remove the mandate of heaven' and depose him. This is a country of conundrums, particularly now.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Barry Finn
Date: 27 May 05 - 08:26 PM

When climbing a ladder up to the top, depending on how or who does or does not get stepped on may be an indicator of what might or might not be in store during the climb back down.

Barry

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: DougR
Date: 28 May 05 - 01:35 PM

Interesting post Shanghaiceltic.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 28 May 05 - 08:19 PM

In my work I meet a huge range of Chinese from all levels of society. They do not like the govt in Beijing but as long as they can make money they are not too bothered.

Currently in the news at present is a lot about Taiwan and Japan. For mainland Chinese Taiwan and the Tibet issue are totally black and white. They are theirs to do with what they want. The fact that Taiwan has a going economy and it invest heavily in China is not mentioned in the news here.

The anti-Japanese feeling is very high, I can understand that, but again the party makes sure that all the facts are not available.

China's economy will continue to grow but it will be harder for the west and other asian countries to deal with, China will strike a hard bargain for entry into it's economy.

Corruption is prevalent at all levels of industry and government despite the jailing and even execution of corrupt officials, when the people below see that happening they too see no problem with a bribe here or there, it become a fact of life. So apart from having a breakneck growth economicaly the corruption is growing too.

On a personal level I get along with my neighbours and Chinese friends very well but on a work level I am always asking myself 'what does this person want when I am doing business.

Outside of China most peoples contact with the Chinese is when they visit a resteraunt or a corner shop. Dealing with the Chinese on a daily basis is a constant learning game. On balance I like living and working here, but having seen how Chinese companies are managed and the pressures brought to bear on work colleagues in those companies I am glad I work for a non Chinese one.

Chinese companies are now buying overseas companies, viz Lenovo buying IBM, the failed buyout of Rover by Shanghai Auto. The Chinese managers themselves in thse companies will have a hard time relating to western values just like we westerners have a hard time relating to Chinese values.

Sorry about the thread drift.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: robomatic
Date: 28 May 05 - 09:26 PM

Shanghaiceltic:
Thanks for your 'slice of life' narrative, and I don't think it is drift. Capitalism takes unique forms in different places. I have not been to China but I have had American Chinese and Hong Kong Chinese and Taiwanese Chinese friends, have a lot of respect for the culture and the history, but not blindered. Do the Chinese have a sense of competition with India?

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Bobert
Date: 28 May 05 - 10:20 PM

Ain't 'bout spellin, Doug, 'er capita;ism fir that matter.... What does matter, howeverm is that in the interst of havin' the greatest return on one's inverstment Boss Hog has thrown the baby out with the bath water....

Real nice fir him until he realizes that in doinf so he has created a country like Haiti, with 1% of the populace living behind walls for fear of ateppin' out into the country side... That's aclled incarceration and guess what... Yer guys are sentencing their kids and grandkids to lives of feared incarceration...

Real good move, my friend... Like what is all the money gonna buy them? Better condtions in their cells?

Oh, how friggin' stupid...

Utterly stupid...

Beyond belief stipidity...

But don't worry, Dougie... You'll be dead and gone (sniff) when this becomes the American reality but I hope you'll take time to look down and see that these policies are policies of suicide... Greed has never been rewarded and yer guys greed will not be rewarded... Short term gains do not make for long term gains... Never have... Never will... Greed will kill America as we know it... Yeah, Doug, as a man I love you and I am glad you won't be around to suffer but yer kids and surely you grandkids will not be so lucky....

This country, as we know it, is soon to be history...

Bobert, no not commie Bobert, but just the observer Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Ron Davies
Date: 28 May 05 - 11:23 PM

"They do not like the government but as long as they can make money they are not too bothered".

" It's the syme the whole world over."


I've also read in the WSJ that China is making big inroads in places like Africa--by being willing to step and fund or build projects in where western powers, for human rights reasons etc. are not willing--e.g. the Sudan, Eritrea etc. This gives them the inside track on mineral wealth, oil etc. in those places.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Stu
Date: 29 May 05 - 08:54 AM

Shame about Tibet though.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 29 May 05 - 05:22 PM

The Chinese have a sense of competition with all countries in this region but it is never stated so baldly. There have even been discussions with India recently to start discussions again over a disputed area of NE India.

It is also equally true that China will talk to countries who have good natural resources in order to ensure their supplies of ores, natural gas, timber etc. Even those these are countries with whom the west will not be comfortable dealing with. They take a very pragmatic approach to their needs. They will state that internal affairs of those countries are no business of theirs.

The average man/woman/child on the street here is extremely proud of their country's achievments and they are looking forward to the big showcase of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. I can understand their pride but it is also tempered with the fact that they do not get the full story of what is happening in the wider world. That is changing though, many people have free access to satelite TV which from overseas which does not broadcast the partyline. Internet access if quite amazing and many younger Chinese will read online newspapers, Chinese websites are well monitored for non approved dissent but there is still a huge number of other overseas sites which are not blocked or controlled.

20 years ago when the fax was introduced into China you had to have a special licence to own one. Now no licences are needed.

As I said before it is a hard country to fathom.

Subject: RE: BS: Three Billion New Capitalists
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 30 May 05 - 09:47 PM

sometime in the last month, after Premier Wen Jiabao's 4day visit to
India, the Indian National Security Adviser issued a statement;"We
have more or less reached agreement with regard to the political parameters
and the guiding principles for the settlement of the boundary dispute."

its not a terribly exciting statement, but it could signal good relations in the future..
it also means that Condi Rice's attempt to play the India card against China (by providing INdia with state of the art fighter aircraft which would put it a generation ahead of Pakistan) isnt working.
and thats a good thing too... as it means that our kids and grandkids are less likely to die in a nuclear war.

as for the one party state in China, I for one never expected the soviet union to collapse. But as the leadership ages, and is replaced more and more by bureaucrats I think it is quite likely they will lose their grip.