BS: Can the LibDems Win?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: MikeL2
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:34 PM

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge - PM
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:46 PM

<" I shall be voting Labour as the only chance to keep the conservative bastards out. ">

Hi Richard

I will be voting Lib Dem for EXACTLY the same reason as you - in my constituency we have Cameron's Eton chummy......Osborne !!

If the Conservatives do get in life will not be all plain sailing for them. As well as the global financial problems etc etc...Europe will raise it's head and the splits which have been papered over in the party will re-appear splitting the Tories once again right down the middle.

Hold on to your hats and buckle your seatbelts.

Cheers

MikeL2

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 02:17 PM

Sounds as if "the local conservative publicity " has worked in your case then...

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:46 PM

I wholly agree with Will Hutton's analysis there.

Interestingly, I was considering voting Lib Dem because I think the new constituency boundaries make a Labour win in my constituency improbable - the wonderful Bob Marshal-Andrews only squeaked in last time - but I see the local conservative publicity repeatedly mentioning a constructive relationship with the LD's so they've bloody had my vote and I shall be voting Labour as the only chance to keep the conservative bastards out.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Gervase
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:34 PM

If the Tory party were to enter a coalition with the Lib-Dems it would be short-lived. Cameron would want a mandate, so he would wait for the public's infatuation with Clegg to wane (and delay imposing some of the more draconian cuts that any new government will need), force through a policy that would sunder the coalition and go to the country again.
With Labour tearing itself to pieces in the wilderness and the Lib-Dems tarnished, the Tories would achieve a sizeable majority.
Then the fun will really start. To quote Will Hutton:
"The state will become a Conservative fiefdom, with even local police forces directly run by Tory politicians in the name of "democratic accountability". The City of London will not be reformed. Wealth will become ever more concentrated in fewer hands. Scotland, Wales and many English regions will be devastated by swingeing public spending cuts – almost their sole economic prop for the last decade – and by ongoing de-industrialisation.
"The management of an economy burdened by excessive private debt, fragile banks and a faltering economic recovery will be ideological. The prison population will grow even faster than under Labour as populist social repression intensifies.
"There will be some worthwhile improvements – the scrapping of ID cards and aspects of the Big Society programme which has been too quickly dismissed by liberal critics – but in the round Britain will become a meaner, less generous and more unequal society despite David Cameron's declared intentions. This will be Murdoch's Britain, with the BBC to be cut back and Sky's influence extended. Government will be in thrall to the right of centre press. The sale of our companies to the highest foreign bidder will accelerate..."
Still, there seem to be plenty of turkeys willing to vote for Christmas, like our Bonzo above.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Allan
Date: 03 May 10 - 01:25 PM

"What politicians say before an election is designed to get people to vote for them. It need not bear much resemblance to what they do once the votes have been collected."

That is perfectly true and of course another scenario is that a Tory party with the biggest number of seats but no overall majority may decide not to go into a permanent coalition with the Lib Dems (who would almost certainly demand PR in any such coalition) but may decide instead to try and work on with a minority government which means they may need to work out deals on specific issues only. It is not so far fetched as there is a precedence with the existing SNP administration in Edinburgh who have no majority. They've managed to get most of their bills through but have had to abandon certain measures where they have no support from elsewhere.   

Another scenario with this is that if they bring forward their English MPS for English matters idea - then it is perfectly possible that they could have a real working majority on many of the proposed Westminster bills anyway once Scots, Irish and Welsh based MPS are discounted.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: pdq
Date: 03 May 10 - 12:40 PM

Many members of the British Parliament should be hung.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 03 May 10 - 12:26 PM

I think people underestimate how much the Libs have jumped in the public consciousness, and I think people would be well advised to prepare for a hung parliament.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 12:15 PM

What politicians say before an election is designed to get people to vote for them. It need not bear much resemblance to what they do once the votes have been collected.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Jim McLean
Date: 03 May 10 - 11:44 AM

The switch to Lib Dems by the Guardian and the Observer is an anti Tory measure, not essentially pro Lib Dem. Both papers realised that Labour is going to lose and hope that Clegg would support a Lib/Lab pact but without Brown. There is a problem in that Clegg said he would not support a party which had fewer votes albeit more seats which could be Labour's position when the election results come in.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Will Fly
Date: 03 May 10 - 10:50 AM

Labour? That's not been in power for a very long time. There's not a gnat's difference between the attitudes of New Labour and the Conservatives. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. And if any party in this country thinks it can do much to overcome problems rooted in an international situation, it should think again. Cameron will be just as powerless and shiftless as Blair and Brown have been. The proof of the pudding will... "not long now!!!"

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 03 May 10 - 08:31 AM

A great number of us now look forward to the forthcoming Conservative government - not long now!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 07:16 AM

The Guardian has always been a staunch Labour supporter.

No. The Guardian's support for Labour has always been tactical. It's always been anti-Tory, but that's not the same thing. Back when the SDP broke away it enthusiastically backed them. And its record as the Liberal backing paper goes back way into the 19th century.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:51 AM

But there's definitely something very interesting going on here. As far as I know, The Guardian has always been a staunch Labour supporter. Something pretty earth moving has had to have happened for them to change colour. Are they not just reflecting the dissatisfaction/desenfranchisement that people are feeling with the corrupt governments we have had to endure which has now broken most of us?

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:49 AM

The Guardian has always been a Liberal/ Lib Dem inclined paper, supporting Labour only as being the more viable alternative.

There is no realistic or near-realistic prospect of the Lib Dems getting a Parliamentary majority with the present voting system. Conceivably, if there was a majority for Lib Dems and Labour together, they could form a coalition - and if the Lib Dems had more popular votes, they could demand to be seen as the senior partner in this, even with fewer seats, with their man in Number Ten. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

More likely at present appears to be a Tory minority administration, a few seats short of a majority. In principle that should mean that there would be a majority of MPs elected on a promise of a referendum on electoral reform - but I suspect that, if there is no reward in the shjape of immediate power, Labour would rat on that, as they did after 1997, when their manifesto promised the same thing,

The daftest thing is where you have Lib Dems telling supporters not to vote tactically for Labour in seats where the Lib Dem candidate hasn't a hope. The suggestion is that building up the popular vote is important in itself, regardless of the mathematics of the elected House. In fact, however many votes the Lib Dems get, there won't be electoral reform if the Tories get an overall majority.

The one option nobody seems to be anticipating is Labour and the Tiries getting together to form a Grand Coalation aka a National Government. But I wouldn't rule it out.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: greg stephens
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:23 AM

Not if only the Guardian readers vote Liberal.

Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: Lox
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:17 AM

If everyone votes for them ...

Subject: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 03 May 10 - 06:13 AM

Now that The Guardian has decided to support them, do you think they stand a chance this time around?