BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!

Subject: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 16 Jul 08 - 11:25 PM

The surge has succeeded!

Bush and McCain just said so!

The surge is over!

We only have 18,000 more troops there now than before it started!

Woo hooo!

The government there is still unstable and unreconciled.

The Kurds have left the government.

No problem!!

We've won We've won!

McCain sure knows how to win a war!

Life is so much easier if I only watch Fox News!

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: katlaughing
Date: 16 Jul 08 - 11:30 PM

Vets for Freedom are even saying it!

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: MarkS
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 12:25 AM

So if the war is over now, lets go home and call it a victory.
No sense staying there in the future.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Teribus
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 04:51 AM

In the following I take it that Jack the Sailor is wittering on about Iraq:

"The surge has succeeded!" - Yes it has hasn't it.

"Bush and McCain just said so!" - Yes they have haven't they, and so did quite a number of other people, the vast majority of them being Iraqis and I would tend to think that they knew at first hand exactly what they are talking about, wouldn't you Jack?

"The surge is over!" - Yep, all over bar the shouting, some minor mopping up left, but yes I'd say it was pretty much over.

"We only have 18,000 more troops there now than before it started!" - Now let's see if we are talking about "The Surge" here, that involved the sudden introduction into theatre of five brigades, some 30,000 additional troops. In the event this increase in troop levels was achieved over a few months and was completed by August last year. So if what Jack the Sailor is saying is correct that means that there has been a draw down of 12,000 troops since "The Surge" was completed - That correct Jack? I also believe that there will be quite a number home before long Jack which will have absolutely nothing to do with that clown Obama.

"Woo hooo!" - Whatever floats your boat JtS

"The government there is still unstable and unreconciled." - You mean the same as in quite a number of states JtS (Neither your own or mine are particularly flavour of the month according to the media)

"The Kurds have left the government." - Have they? Oh what a pity, they were bringing the dessert.

"No problem!!" - If you say so Jack

"We've won We've won!" - This comes from where Jack? - You?

"McCain sure knows how to win a war!" - If you say so Jack, I do agree he most certainly has more of an idea than Barak Obama, whose latest pronouncements, based upon what the Iraq Prime Minister did not say, could accurately be described as confused, ill-considered, contradictory, meaningless waffle. And absolutely no-one in the MSM is taking him to task on it - they obviously sense a better story down the line when he really screws everything up.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Amos
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 10:17 AM

T:

Funny=--- the major editorials I have read consider Barack's op ed on Iraq strategy and Afghanistan and related issues, consider his planning to be far superior to that of McCain and far preferable to the ghastly rigor mortis of the Bush administration.

A

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Goose Gander
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:06 AM

OK, we won - now can anyone tell me exactly what 'we' have won, and why did 'we' go there in the first place?

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: SINSULL
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:15 AM

Something about non-existent Weapons of Mass Destruction and bringing a better life to all those thousands of people we maimed, killed, orphaned, bombed, etc., I think.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: CarolC
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:21 AM

We one VICTORY! What else is there?

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: CarolC
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:22 AM

Oops. "won" victory

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:26 AM

Teribus,

You seem tense and testy. Don't worry. Just relax and enjoy the peace dividend. We are in good hands with McCain. He knows how to win wars! I heard him say so. On Fox News!!

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: SINSULL
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:37 AM

Before anyone gets too relaxed - as with Viet Nam this war is unwinnable unless we decide to use nuclear (nucular for the spelling challenged) weapons and wipe Iraq off the face of the earth (which might just create another war...) We will leave a mess behind us no matter who is president when it happens.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Little Hawk
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 11:45 AM

In a guerrilla war against foreign armies of occupation one does not have to win a single battle...one just has to keep on fighting until the foreigners leave. Hit them where they are weakest, avoid them where they are strong. Keep moving around to where they are weakest and keep fighting. Make life hell for them until they finally leave. It may take a generation. It may take 3 generations. No matter. One keeps on fighting until the foreigners leave. The Vietnamese did this against the French, the Japanese, the French again, and then the Americans...until the foreign occupying forces left Vietnam. The Afghans have always drive out foreign occupiers eventually, and they will again. Ditto for the Iraqis.

One day the Americans and other foreign troops will ignominiously leave Iraq and Afghanistan. It will not be the day of their victory.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 12:27 PM

Of course you are right Little Hawk. In this case, it looks like Al Qaeda has shifted its main front back to Afghanistan. If we leave fat juicy brigades in Iraq, we are just inviting them to restart the insurgency there once they start to lose ground to

"Surge II, Afghanistan!"

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:01 PM

He knows how to win wars!

He knows how to win wars!

John McCain IS...

The Surge Protector!

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Amos
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:01 PM

ALl this rap by dittoheads about how successful the surge was ignores a couple of important facts in play, even without talking about Afghanistan.

One is that the success of the surge is equally attributable to the constraints on insurgency imposed by Muqtya Al Sadr, without which we would have seen more blood and death than previously, instead of less.

Another is that the kind of superiorforce we have used to quell some of the uinsurgency is not the kind of military victory which actually resolves the well-springs of hatred and murderous intent on the part of the insurgents. I suspect to the contrary there will be a long-smoldering undercurrent of resentment against American influence as long as we are sitting in place there, and our so-called embassy looms over the city skyline fatrter than any of Saddams notorious pleasure palaces.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:37 PM

Wasn't Obama saying yesterday he would shift a few more brigades from Iraq into the Afgani .... Surge II ?

please correct me if I'm wrong.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Little Hawk
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:38 PM

You know what has happened in Iraq? A local despot (Saddam) who killed and terrorized many people but ran things reasonably well has been replaced by the armies of a foreign despot (Uncle Sam) who kills even more people, terrorizes the entire region, doesn't run things well at all, and also has wrecked pretty well the entire nation while doing so. Guess how much the average Iraqi likes that...

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:47 PM

Surge II endorsed by the democrats ...

surge II


I guess things will still stay the same regardless who wins the November election.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: DougR
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:48 PM

Yes, "6", he did.

Amos: most folks, before they announce a superdooper plan to end the war in Iraq, would talk to the commanders on the ground, perhaps even visit Iraq to see for themselves whether or not the surge worked. Not your candidate, apparently he doesn't want to be confused by facts, just announce a plan based on his own "superlative" experience.

No doubt AFTER he tours Iraq, for the second time, and Afghanistan for the FIRST time, he MIGHT have a better grip on what is going on over there. He might even "revise" his announced plan. After all, he has already greased such a possibility in a speech he made a week or so ago. With the three major TV network anchors in tow, Senator Obama will have an opportunity to slant the visit any way he chooses with blessings from the major networks.

There is still a lot of work to do in Iraq.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: CarolC
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 01:59 PM

Unlike Bush, who, when presented with opinions from his commanders on the ground that he didn't like, fired them or persuaded them to retire, instead of heeding what they had to say. Which is why the war has lasted for five years and cost the lives of several thousand US service men and women, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians (and billions of tax payer dollars).

The commanders on the ground who remain are the ones who have passed the test of only having opinions that are endorsed by the Bush administration.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Amos
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 02:07 PM

DougR:

It should be obvious that Obama is not most folks. He's a bit smarter than the average bear.

Now I notice when he announced he woudl be revising his plans based on feedback from commanders on the ground when he visits IRaq, your gang called him a flipflopper. The same stupid slur you used on Kerry, a meaningless black mark without any substance.

Anyone with more than two brain cells will update their plans against new data and will revise their tactics to fulfill their strategies and purposes.

"Until this week, when Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, offered a sensible and comprehensive blueprint for dealing with the mess that President Bush created by bungling the war of necessity against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which could have made Americans safer, and starting a war of choice in Iraq, which made the world more insecure.

Mr. Obama's Republican rival, Senator John McCain, is no longer able to ignore the situation on the Afghan-Pakistan border, where Al Qaeda and the Taliban — the true threats to American security — are resurgent. But he has not matched Mr. Obama's seriousness on Iraq. Mr. McCain is still tied in knots, largely adopting Mr. Bush's blind defense of an unending conflict.

Mr. Obama has a better grasp of the big picture, despite Mr. McCain's claim to more foreign policy experience. For far too long, Mr. Bush's preoccupation with his misadventure in Iraq — which fostered a presence for Al Qaeda where there was none — has dangerously diverted precious manpower, resources and high-level attention from Afghanistan and Pakistan. As Mr. Obama correctly asserted in an Op-Ed article in The Times on Monday and in a speech on Tuesday, those countries, not Iraq, are the real frontline of the war against terrorism." (NYT Editorial().


A

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 02:10 PM

Doug,

It is idiotic to think that a tour of a secure airbase or two or as stroll through an empty market with a few hundred armed guards will provide any useful information about the war zones. That's as bout as useful as flying over Katrina in Air Force One.

You have to stop parroting these guys, because if you don't, when they say stupid things, you say stubid things.

;-)

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 02:20 PM

"As Mr. Obama correctly asserted in an Op-Ed article in The Times on Monday and in a speech on Tuesday, those countries, not Iraq, are the real frontline of the war against terrorism."

Still buying the old terrorist paranoia bit .... I dunno .... surge II is the same as surge I ... bottom line it is in all the US interest to control the mideast (bottom line) ... to have presence (occupy), is to have control.


biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 02:28 PM

I don't think so biLL.

I think that Obama wants to destroy Al Qaeda and clean up Afghanistan and the western tribal regions of Pakistan so that these regions will not be a safe haven for terrorists planning to attack the United States.

I believe this because he has been saying so since 2003.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Teribus
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 02:30 PM

Amos, can you explain to us exactly how today Al-Qaeda and the Taleban in Afghanistan and Pakistan are a threat to the United States of America? It is also abundantly clear that Iraq has posed no threat to the United States of America since March 2003.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: PoppaGator
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 03:23 PM

Iraq has "posed no threat to the United States of America since March 2003" only because it posed no such threat prior to that date, either.

Since the invasion, however, Iraq has become more problematic for our country's safety than it ever was before then. Iraq has become a safe haven and a recruiting bonanza for Al Quida since that date, whereas it provided no such comfort for our real enemies before then.

Teribus, if you truly need Amos to explain how Islamic terrorists like Al Quioda and the Taliban are a threat to the US ~ implying that they are NOT, after, so very dangerous ~ can you explain why the hell our government has been sending large numbers of our young people, and much larger numbers of Iraqi civilians, to their deaths for the last five years and more?

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Riginslinger
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 07:37 PM

"War is over. The surge has succeeded!"


                   Good! California needs its national guard back to fight wild fires.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 07:45 PM

>>It is also abundantly clear that Iraq has posed no threat to the United States of America since March 2003.

Since that date,
The Iraqis have killed 4,000 Americans,
They have wound tens of thousands
The have driven up oil prices thus damaging the economy.
They have cost 750 million in direct costs and maybe a trillion indirect.
They are a major factor in the current economic crises and the decline of the dollar.

Otherwise they are no threat.

Why would they come here to hurt us when they can bleed us to death over there?

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Little Hawk
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 07:48 PM

Iraq has never posed any credible threat to the USA...other than a little scheme Saddam once had to blow up George Bush Sr when he was visiting the Middle East some time after the Gulf War. I can't really blame Saddam for having pondered such a plan at that time... ;-) But in any case, such a plan does not constitute what I would term "a threat to the USA".

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: DougR
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 07:48 PM

Amos: One of the great things about our country is we are allowed to form our own opinions. Even if they are wrong.

JTS: I agree that if the only thins Obama tours in Iraq with his entourage of TV network stars and some 200 other journalists visit only the kind of sites you describe, little will be gained from making the trip. I don't know why he is going anyway, other than the fact that McCain shamed him into it. If he is as brilliant as Amos seems to believe he is, he really doesn't need anyone to advise him at all! Generals on the ground, or experts in any other subject one can name.

PoppaGator: I'm sure Teribus will reply to you on his own, but my two cents to your last paragraph is simple: to keep those same young people from having to fight them here!

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 07:53 PM

Its all twoo! Even General Petraus was bumped upstairs and yet another general was put in charge.

When McCain went to Iraq he was not even a presumptive nominee, but he did brag about buying 3 carpets for only $5.

Hey Doug I know some Iraqis over here. You wanna fight them?

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: skipy
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 07:54 PM

Bring our boys & girls home & turn the whole area to obsidion
Skipy

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 08:22 PM

Doug.... Doug ..

Bush went over there in Thanksgiving 2005 and handed out turkey legs. He went through about 6 or 7 commanders "on the ground" in Iraq at CENTCOM and in the ambassador's chair before he found ones telling him things he wanted to hear.

Doug.... Doug .. Doug....

Obama is going on tour for exactly the same reason as McCain did. He's doing it for the photo ops.

Doug.... Doug .. Doug.... Doug ..

Obama is good BECAUSE he listens to other people!!

He listens to Chuck Hagel!

Wall Street Journal Article

Apparently in McCain universe, one cannot make informed decisions by reading reports and talking to knowledgeable people.

>>>Sen. John McCain heaped praise on Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican who opposes the Iraq war and who has said he would consider joining Democrat Barack Obama's ticket. While Hagel sees the war in Iraq much like Obama does, McCain said that Hagel's views were understandable because he has made an "informed decision" and Obama has not.<<<

Apparently Mr. McCain had to burn his fingers as a child to know that the stove was hot and he hasn't learned anything except through experience since then. That would explain his opinions on abortion and women's birth control at least.

McCain didn't learn anything on his trips to Iraq. He didn't even learn there was a difference between Al Qaeda and Shiite militants, even though Lieberman told him twice.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 08:39 PM

Has the Afghani posed any real direct threat to the U.S. ???

as far as I know Al-Qaeda is an organization without any definite country.

That's why surge II is just another fruitless attempt to crush them ... costing a lot of $$money$$, let alone human life and just adds more fuel to the already volatile mid-east in it's distrust, hatred of the U.S. in specific.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 08:43 PM

But then again ... retaining and adding troops in the Afgan is really about empire building, isn't it ... under the (marketing) guise of fighting the terroists.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Amos
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 08:54 PM

The Taliban hosted Al Queda during its formative years under bin Laden, after the Russians left Afghanistan; prior to that Al Queda, in a sort of amorphous form, was nurtured by the CIA in an effort to make Afghanistan into "the USSR's Vietnam".

The Taliban shielded Osama bin Laden during the first few weeks after 9-11, first pretending he was not in country and then woffling about turning him over, playing a very narrow, duplicitous role during that period.

In doing so they brought down upon themselves the wrath of the Bush Administration and, thereby, the US military supporting the anti-Taliban northern Alliance.

SInce then, according to what I have read, they have regrouped in the hard remote hill country and are continuing to promote harsh Sharia culture of the most extreme sort, muster recruits against the US in Iraq and provide al Qeda with support and cover.

I don't know these for facts, but they seem to be the pattern.

Anyone have any better data? I am open for education.





A

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 09:35 PM

This weeks Economist agrees with you Amos.

Special report on Al Qaeda.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: dick greenhaus
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 09:50 PM

Explain it again, please--the difference between a surge and an escalation?

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 10:06 PM

OK ... if that is so, Surge II is justified (McCain and Obama are correct) ... but to make it really work it should overflow into Pakistan. Now that would really lite up a shitstorm wouldn't it.

Now, the purpose of the Al-Qaeda's resentment (understatement) of the U.S. is their presence in the middle east (holy territory so to speak) ... am I correct? Is this hatred going to get shoved out of the hearts and minds of the young Islamists by the presence and brute force of (infidel) military troops in their lands?

If I'm wrong on this please direct to the correct solution. Otherwise I can only assume that this whole crusade is for the sole purpose of empire building ... making Wolfowitz's strategy and dream come true.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Little Hawk
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 10:11 PM

Much of the stuff that I've read about Al Queda leads me to believe that Al Queda never would have come into being without the CIA to build it up in the first place. They did that in order to destabilize the Russian presence in Afghanistan and the Caspian region. Their intention was to use extreme Muslim fundamentalism to break up and exhaust the Soviet empire, and they eventually succeeded in that aim.

"Al-Queda" literally means "The Database". The reason for that is probably linked to an enormous database that the CIA kept of all the names and identities of all the Muslim fighters they had recruited and trained and assisted in the 70's and 80's to do damage to the Russians.

So the USA basically inspired and trained both the forerunners of the Taliban and Al Queda through the efforts of the CIA.

As for the Northern Alliance, they were just a bunch of vicious warlords who were fighting for turf with the Taliban and I suspect that they are just as nasty a bunch of people as the Taliban...but for the USA the "enemy of my enemy is my friend"...and the same went for the Northern Alliance.

I think that Al Queda, as it was originally marketed to the American public, is for the most part a mythical entity...in this sense: it is not nearly as united, large, powerful, and well organized a group as it has been presented to be. The worldwide Al Queda network that the media has been blathering about in order to scare people and create a justification for an endless war is probably a myth for the most part...but it's a very powerful myth that is also believed by Muslims. Therefore you now have a vast number of disaffected and angry young Muslim men who would like to join "Al Queda" because the world media has convinced them that there IS such an Al Queda to join.

It becomes a case of life imitating "art" (propaganda in this case). ;-) Then too, you have a few quite serious characters who were in it from the start, and it is in their interests also that the world should imagine that Al Queda is this huge, powerful organization with cells all over the place...because that helps them recruit more foolish young jihadists from the Muslim population worldwide.

Now all of that is absolutely great if you want an endless war. By all accounts, Bin Laden wants such a war. So does the USA military industrial complex. Therefore I would say that they are both in it together, and they share the blame for it. They are enemies who need each other and whose existence is mutually convenient for each other in various ways...although they also detest one another and try to kill each other whenever possible.

The world would be far better off if both of them just went away to some other planet and let the rest of us alone here to build a peaceful community of nations. But they won't. Things are never that easy.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,number 6
Date: 17 Jul 08 - 10:17 PM

"As for the Northern Alliance, they were just a bunch of vicious warlords who were fighting for turf with the Taliban and I suspect that they are just as nasty a bunch of people as the Taliban...but for the USA the "enemy of my enemy is my friend"...and the same went for the Northern Alliance."

so true L.H. ... pirates and drug marketeers. The U.S. has a very nasty habit of shaking hands with the devil.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Teribus
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 01:03 AM

So the upshot of that Amos is that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda can only really now cause trouble in Afghanistan and in certain areas of Pakistan. Should Al-Qaeda mount a "terrorist spectacular" it would at worst case be no worse than 9/11. Sorry chumps that is not the greatest direct security threat that the United States of America is exposed to, and two independent bodies within the USA came to that conclusion way back in 4th Quarter of 2001.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 01:26 AM

No the worst security threat to the USA is keeping all those soldiers in Iraq,
Borrowing money from China to keep a lid on their civil war;
Watching our military slowly waste away in deployment after pointless deployment.
Building schools and roads over there while ours crumble,
Paying 4 dollars a gallon of gas while they pay 40 cents.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Teribus
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 04:02 AM

JtS, if you'd been paying 2 dollars a gallon for "gas" for the last 20 years you would have paid for a nation-wide free health service; you would have paid for your new schools, bridges and roads.

The whingers in the US who complain about fuel prices should get it into their thick heads that you have been given cheap "gas" for far, far too long - You are picking up the tab now - join the rest of us in the real world. The rise in the price of oil per barrel has got absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Iraq or Afghanistan, I mean how could it the latter does not export any and the former's has supposedly been under embargo and sanctions since 1990, and even when it did export oil it was ranked 17th in the order of oil exporting countries.

Factors affecting the rise in the price of oil per barrel:
- Increased demand world-wide but especially from countries such as India and China.
- Lack of refining capacity world-wide
- Lack of resources to bring new developments on-stream quick enough
- Political uncertainty particularly in Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela as major suppliers.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Donuel
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 09:44 AM

Jack the Sailor

One small correction about the 2005 Bush Thansgiving in Iraq.

He was photographed offering a resin fake turkey to the troops.

The irony of this is too great to ignore.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 01:53 PM

The worse potential specific security threat to mainland USA would be the detonation of a nuclear weapon in an American city. I think everyone is well aware of that risk, and it's in the back of everyone's mind.

There are numerous disaffected groups who would no doubt like to do just that, but they would have to acquire such a weapon first and then get the weapon onto (or very near) American soil to do it. The easiest way to do that would be to bring it in on a ship and detonate it in the harbour of some American city.

This is something that I'm sure is keeping American security forces busy on a fulltime basis...and let's hope to hell it never happens...because if it ded it would be a total disaster and it would only lead to even greater tragedies not long afterward. It would inevitably cause further wars to occur, as some country would get fingered with the blame (whether or not they really planned it).

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 02:14 PM

>>Factors affecting the rise in the price of oil per barrel:
- Increased demand world-wide but especially from countries such as India and China.
- Lack of refining capacity world-wide
- Lack of resources to bring new developments on-stream quick enough
- Political uncertainty particularly in Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela as major suppliers.
<<

Did you get those "factors" from the main stream media? The media dominated by Exxon and BP adverts?

You don't think that War in the Middle East trumps uncertainty in those other places?
You don't think it trumps all other concerns?

Its not supply and demand. There is plenty of supply on the world market and OPEC isn't pumping at anywhere near full capacity.

Refining capacity? How does a lack of refining capacity do anything but DEFLATE the price per barrel? You think the refiners are handing over checks saying "I can't refine that much, but ship it to me anyway. i just love sitting on billions in inventory."

There is no lack of resources to bring new supplies on line the oil companies are awash with cash.

The "uncertainty" problems with the three countries you mentioned are largely a consequence of the belliocose behavior of the Bush administration and the oil comapnies.

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: Teribus
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 05:06 PM

"Did you get those "factors" from the main stream media?"

Answer - No.

"You don't think that War in the Middle East trumps uncertainty in those other places?"

Answer - There is no war in the middle-east, or there wasn't last time that I checked the world news. Exports of oil from the middel-east have not been disrupted since the Iraqi Forces were expelled from Kuwait in 1991.

"You don't think it (non-existant war in the middel-east) trumps all other concerns?"

Answer - No I do not.

"Its not supply and demand. There is plenty of supply on the world market and OPEC isn't pumping at anywhere near full capacity."

Answer - Are you saying that demand for fuel has not risen? Of course there are adequate supplies, but supply of crude oil is only one part of thge equation, or don't you realise that. OPEC are not the ony suppliers and why should they pump at full capacity if to do otherwise suits their national interests better. Remember Jack National Oil Companies own 93% of the world's oil while those big bad oil companies only control 7%. "Its not supply and demand" - Oil like anything else is a commodity and as far as the market value of it is concerned it is ALL a question of supply and demand.

"Refining capacity? How does a lack of refining capacity do anything but DEFLATE the price per barrel?"

This might come as startling news to you Jack the Sailor but very few people use crude oil, it has to be refined into a form that can be used as fuel. Now it would appear that according to your logic that if there are too few refineries price of a barrel of oil will go down. Now why should that be? Is it because you think that those who own the oil are different from those who refine the oil? Who are in turn different from those who distribute the oil and sell it? If so how touchingly quaint and "Camberwick Green" in nature. Besides it should be blindingly obvious that it is the demand for the refined product that determines the cost of the raw material per barrel, that along with a few other costs that have to be factored in.

"You think the refiners are handing over checks saying "I can't refine that much, but ship it to me anyway. i just love sitting on billions in inventory."

Answer - The "refiners" as you refer to them are either National Oil Company owned facilities or are owned by Oil Companies. They, along with speculators sit on oil by the tanker load waiting to see which way the market will go and where best to sell

"There is no lack of resources to bring new supplies on line the oil companies are awash with cash."

Answer - Oh, so the only resource required to bring new supplies on line is cash is it Jack the Sailor? Again a rather naive view of the real world. Now then Jack with oil at $145 per barrel how many people (nations) who have oil in their territories will be eager to exploit that wealth? Lots? All of them I would have said, all over the world. Any idea what it takes to find oil and get it to the "gas" station Jack, it takes a damn sight more than just money. I'll give you an example of things where the lead time on hardware is measured in terms of years - Wellheads, blow-out preventers, flexible pie the list goes on and on down through a whole rake of specialist expertise and equipment that is in short supply because of the world-wide scramble to produce oil. That Jack the Sailor was one thing the Kurds in Iraq were very well tuned into, that is why they were in such a rush to enter into contracts to get their oil programmes running. Doesn't matter how much money you've got Jack the Sailor if there are no rigs available for drilling your oil stays where it is.

"The "uncertainty" problems with the three countries you mentioned are largely a consequence of the belliocose behavior of the Bush administration and the oil comapnies."

Answer - Really? Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela? Now let's see:

Nigeria - Internal problems mainly to do with lack of equitable distribution of the oil wealth within the country principally in the oil producing regions of the country (Ibo). Now I do not see GWB or the USA featuring large in that scenario. (33.3% of the way there)

Russia - When the USSR collapsed western oil companies were welcomed in to boost Russian production. Once that was done the Russian Government started grabbing stuff back, which quite naturally caused investors to become more cautious and western firms viewed the area as being not worth the hassle. Russia signed energy deals with western Europe and when disputes have arisen between the Russians and her newly independent neighbours (primarily the Ukraine) the Russians promptly turned the taps off, not a very good move to inspire customer confidence. Once again I do not see GWB or the USA featuring large in that scenario. (Now 66.7% of the way there)

Venezuela - Much the same as Russia in that Chavez has acted in such a way as to scare off foreign investment and technical know how. This ultimately has a price for Venezuela's oil industry further down the line, you cannot just produce you must carry out down-hole maintenance to keep the reservoirs healthy, Chavez is not doing this and the industry world-wide knows it. Nothing whatsoever to do with GWB or the USA in that scenario. (Home)

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: DougR
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 05:12 PM

Donuel: If you know some Iraqis "over here" that want to fight, I suggest you call Homeland Security.

JTS, JTS, JTS: If Obama is listening to Chuck Hagel, God help us all!

Teribus: I was wondering when one of you folks across the pond was going to call your American cousins on our whine factor over the cost of gasoline. I was a bit shocked to learn, during my first trip to Ireland, that you folks have been paying a premium for gasoline for years.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: War is over. The surge has succeeded!
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 18 Jul 08 - 05:15 PM

LOL

"There is no war in the middle-east"

Very very funny!!

I'm sorry Teribus, I mistook you for someone who was trying to make some sense. Continue with your farcical humour.

HAHAHAHAHAHA