BS: Brexit & other UK political topics

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 12:39 PM

I am not relying on the 70% figure, Steve. Back in March, according the oracle that is "The Daily Mail" Sir Patrick Vallance said around 60 per cent of the population will need to catch the virus to build up a national tolerance strong enough to stop the virus circulating. I am sure I could find similar reporting from other papers. but that is the one that came up first. It may be 60%. It may be 70%, it may be 93%, or 43%: we really have very little way of knowing yet. Until we have at least one substantial community with widespread infection or vaccination you are essentially trying to estimate where a curve 'flattens off' while you are still on a piece with a high gradient.

But I was really trying to make a different point. It was if you need to have a certain level to achieve herd immunity, what do you do when, for whatever reason, you cannot get to that percentage? That will require a judgement call at some time.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 12:20 PM

Both you and Maggie haven't quite got this right. Herd immunity for measles requires at least 92 in every hundred people to be immune. We've had outbreaks in the UK when the number has dropped into the 80s. Fortunately, immunity is long-lived. The threshold for flu is much lower. For certain childhood diseases, such as whooping cough, the overall population threshold isn't a great way of looking at it: it's far more important that children and young parents have the highest percentages, as they overwhelmingly are the children's most frequent contacts. Another factor is that herd immunity can diminish over a short time if (as we might suspect for coronavirus, though we don't yet know) immunity is short-lived or lost as people age with a consequent weakening of their immune system. I wouldn't be hanging your hopes on that 70% number if I were you. That's about the median figure of the estimates, but that figure may well be confounded by interventions such as lockdowns and shielding, both of which, for very good reasons, artificially keep the transmission rate down, thereby extending the time it will take for herd immunity to kick in.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 11:21 AM

You need more like 70% vaccinated to create the kind of "herd immunity" ....

I agree, Silly, and it may be more of a problem in the US than the UK (but it could be bad enough here): What do you do if you can get to 50-60% vaccination and then cannot really increase the level further because of anti-vaxxers and the like? Also, it is important to remember that there is probably 5-10% who can't take the vaccine even if they want to, like those with immune system problems.

I would certainly prefer us to get to maybe 70% before relaxing at all, but if the resistance to people taking the vaccine is high enough, I might have to relax before that.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 11:12 AM

It seems sensible to me to keep social-distancing, hand-washing, and mask-wearing (sorry Steve, I’m a belt, braces and pieces of string below the knees kinda guy!) even after vaccination. I’m 73 and diabetic, and I’m taking no chances.

The usual disclaimers apply......IMHO, YMMV etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 10:46 AM

You need more like 70% vaccinated to create the kind of "herd immunity" that has been established for measles and other diseases. That discussion is making the rounds now in the US - how many vaccinated before the social distancing requirements and such can expire.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 10:18 AM

I'm between 60 and 65..

A kinda no mans land waiting room...

It's going to be a very anxious over cautious long time in the queue for my vaccine,
while the tories are forcing my 'over 50s' wife
to teach potentially increasingly infectious school kids every working day...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 08:40 AM

”Have the vaccine when it's your turn then relax just somewhat”

Mine is to have the vaccine, but not really to relax somewhat. That will only come when the level of vaccinated people is above perhaps 50% or we find the vaccine does significantly reduce the likelihood you are a carrier. (Which my best guess it that it will, but let's await evidence.)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 07:43 AM

”Have the vaccine when it's your turn then relax just somewhat”

That’s my policy. Thanks Steve.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 07:27 AM

Vaccines work by promoting antibody reaction in the body, just as catching the disease does. Whilst we are still in the short-term, the fact that there have been extremely few documented cases of catching it more than once (and you don't necessarily have to believe every single one, as some people just love to be special), it seems that immunity lasts at least for a good few months, if not longer. Another thing is that the vaccines appear to promote a stronger immune response than catching the disease. The issue of what exactly the vaccine does or doesn't do is something that applies to many, if not most or all, vaccines. We can't carry on living life in that worrying way. Have the vaccine when it's your turn then relax just somewhat.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 06:57 AM

”There is no certainty that getting vaccinated will prevent you catching the disease or passing it to others.
If you get vaccinated it should prevent you ending up in hospital, which will mean the health service can treat more cancer patients and replace more hips and knees.”

Jos, that’s pretty much my layman’s understanding of vaccination, and seems a good reason to get it when it becomes available for my age-group/health situation.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 06:35 AM

jos, well that is a good reason for getting vaccinated i would have thought. . i wanted to hear from the people who contribute to this thread

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Jos
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 05:30 AM

There is no certainty that getting vaccinated will prevent you catching the disease or passing it to others.
If you get vaccinated it should prevent you ending up in hospital, which will mean the health service can treat more cancer patients and replace more hips and knees.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 05:30 AM

Would have been better in the coronavirus thread, Dick. Incidentally, as things stand that isn't a safe assumption. The vaccine preventing illness is one thing. Killing off the virus if it gets in your body, so that you can't spread it, is an entirely other.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 05:20 AM

I am intending to get vaccinated as soon as possible,while i have a good immune system, i feel it would be unfair on the vulnerable in the community to pass on a virus which could possibly result in another persons death, undoubtedly there are people out there who muight regard this as idiotic, i am assuming vaccination prevents the passing on of covid 19.
i am not an expert on the subject , but i am sure there are experts who regularly contribute to this thread, who know about the dangers and the safety of the vaccines

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 02:17 PM

Hey, include me out of that admonishment, Maggie! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 01:55 PM

Dick, if they aren't playing the way you want to play then go find a different thread to participate in. Don't start a new one, that won't fly. Just find something else to do. And the rest of you could pull up your socks and just ignore Dick.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 01:08 PM

Raggy - whatever he is, he has similar disruptive attention-seeking behaviour issues
as the most problematic 5-year olds my wife teaches...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 01:07 PM

You are just arguing and for arguments sake and purposely being obstreperous, Dick. You know you are on thin ice here anyway. Why risk plunging into the cold?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Raggytash
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 01:02 PM

Don't know what Kutta BHONK raha rai means but in Hindi Kutta BHOK raha rai means I am afraid according to my good lady who speaks the language.

Perhaps he meant kutta bhag raha rai which translates (Iam told) as I am being bored.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 12:52 PM

?????? ???? ??? ??

kutta bhonk raha hai

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 08:36 AM

Dick -

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 07:48 AM

so saying Corbyn was voted elected as leader of the labour party by conservatives is reasonable sensible debate? or was it a joke? you cannot have it both ways. if iy was a joke then its ok for you to make childish idiotic jokes, but everyone else has to make sensible debate
to quote yourself
How dare you keep on vaingloriously demanding that other mudcatters must account themselves to your higher authority..
so its ok for you to vaingloroiusly insist that others account for themselves and debate sensibly, but not yourself. you are a booby who talks twaddle

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 07:26 AM

Dick - ok so you are bi-lingual in complete bollox - so what..

I am going to ignore you in this thread until/unless you get back on topic,
and post relevant sensible contributions to the debate.

We are after all more or less on the same side against the tories.

I trust we can resume fairly good humoured amicable tolerant interaction as mudcat mates,
sooner rather than later..

That's up to you...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 06:23 AM

OK. :-S

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 05:30 AM

Bonzo, I know I'm going to regret asking but what's a course of Billy Joe Shaver?

A course of Billy Joe Shaver (RIP) songs!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 04:37 AM

Barking dogs seldom bite.
Defintion of Backwoodsman, According to dictionary ,pleas note not mt opinion
North American
an inhabitant of backwoods, especially one regarded as uncouth or backward.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 04:14 AM

Illegitimes non carborundum, chaps.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 04:03 AM

Backwoodsman punkfolk rocker
Tha còmhradh y0ur a ’cur mo chuimhne orwells newspeak CÉARD IOMLÁN NA mBALLAÍ

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 03:27 AM

I’d be interested to know too, Dave! I know BJS is/was a Country singer, but his relevance here is completely lost on me...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 03:08 AM

Bonzo, I know I'm going to regret asking but what's a course of Billy Joe Shaver?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Dec 20 - 02:07 AM

Sandman - I have deleted your PM without opening it . DO NOT PM ME. I have no interest in any of your childish idiocy.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 11:10 AM

"you should have made that clear"

Dick - no.. you should read other members posts calmly, in good humour,
and when necessary with imagination,
without filtering every word through your own resentments..

Most vital though, you need to show some reasonable self control,
and respect for mudcat community.

You are just only one of a diverse membership of equals.
You may be a good folk artist and festival organiser,
but that does not grant you any special privileges.

How dare you keep on vaingloriously demanding that other mudcatters must account themselves to your higher authority..

You are by no means pretty or famous enough to get away with such persistent outrageous diva behaviour..

It is you who creates a trail of disruptive rancour
in just about every thread you inflict yourself upon...

So ffs lighten up...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 08:19 AM

So the EU now sees a deal as possible. It says the UK has made a key concession:

Barnier said Downing Street now accepted the principle that as either side develops their environmental, social and labour standards over time there should be a way to ensure that trade flows are not distorted by the failure of the other to reciprocate. He described the solution as “unilateral measures”, or tariffs, which would probably be applied after a period of arbitration.


I think that is key to any deal. Boris can claim a success because the UK is not automatically bound to EU changes. Equeally the EU ican claim a success in saying it can impose tariffs. Both sides being able to claim a success is very useful in negotiations.

Now the EU does not like this idea on fishing:


The UK has now suggested that pelagic fish are removed from any deal with Brussels and that shares are instead negotiated through the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission, of which Iceland and Norway are members. Pelagic fish refers to species that swim closer to the surface and accounts for approximately 80% of the value of fish caught by EU fleet.


However, even the the EU is unhappy, that hides an important UK concession: the UK would not be the sole arbiter of who can catch what fish. So this "UK waters are for the UK" has grown more subtle.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 08:13 AM

I suggest a course of Billy Joe Shaver!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 08:05 AM

”ever heard the phrase empty vessels make most sound,”

Oh, the delicious irony! Hilarious!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 06:57 AM

And this is Brexit & other UK political topics because?

Just continuing the previous hypocrisy as far as I can see.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 06:15 AM

tongue in cheek, perhaps you should have made that clear, uniformed twaddle and the same from back woodsman.
the tronblemakers are the people who put up provocative statements punk does it all the time then we have you talking garbage about election defeats , check your facts. you call me lonely
you know nothing about me.
I am far from lonely.
throughout the pandemic i have been be making live music with friends.
doing zoom gigs etc
doing outside gigs. regular music with friends
you really talk uninformed twaddle . ever heard the phrase empty vessels make most sound,
I am also lucky to live in ireland where trad music is appreciated every night i can hear two to 3 hours of good music on radio

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 04:17 AM

This isn’t a court, pfr. Nobody has to ‘prove’ anything here, except in the mind of a lonely trouble-maker and troll. Ignore him and let him continue making a fool of himself - he’ll eventually get tired of it and start working on some other victim.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 03:57 AM

Sand - if and when you fall off your high horse,
you'll have been up there so long,
you'll land neck deep in a mound of horse shit...

You are behaving even more erratic and unstable than usual..

I'm laughing my bollocks off that you are still so crankily triggered
by a tongue in cheek suggestion of tory vote rigging to select Corbyn..

Calm down, before you do yourself a mischief..

[btw.. as conspiracy theories go,
there is actually more plausibility thousands of tories paid the affordable fee to vote for jezza..]

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 03:32 AM

I may be going into yer actual mozzers later this week, Steve. They have cocked up big time on staff discount for retired employees and it seems my discount card can only be used in store currently. If it's not sorted out soon expect to see a news story about mozzers forcing pensioners to risk going in store ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 14 Dec 20 - 01:24 AM

The BBC can predict what they like before the election ..they were wrong it was not the worst defeat since 1935, check your facts you still have not provided any proof or stats to back up your comment. a bbc prediction before an election is not proof.
punk there is no evidence whatsoever that the labour party was infiltrated by conservatives to elect jeremy corbyn

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 08:16 PM

Do that, Dave, and you might not hear the rest of me life story...Bejaysus, this Mozzers five-quid Nero d'Avola ain't half bad... Did I tell you that I've actually been to Avola... and that me mum for ten years ran the best chippy in Radcliffe...and that I bashed the spuds for her (well underage) for seven and a tanner a week...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 06:04 PM

It's at times like this I can appreciate the logic of limiting these threads.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 06:03 PM

Steve - as I was saying...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 05:32 PM

Ye gods...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 05:19 PM

pfr Please stop telling me what to do.
i have spent the last five hours working on a festival completion grant form. i had to this in 2019 and now have to do it all over again.
do you organise anything, probably not, you have no idea of the work that goes in to providing music and gigs for people
well kindly do not tell me what to do, and kindly stop calling me names

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 05:10 PM

Well I've seen similar things down yer in Bude, where the local Labour Party is currently tearing itself to bits (and it isn't exactly over-populated...). Once it becomes ashes maybe I'll supply the phoenix, but at the moment I really can't be arsed with it. Folk music seems at times to be the same sort of magnet... But my mum and dad, rest 'em now, were both Labour Party people and even as an early teen I was out there taking numbers for the canvassers at the polling station and having tea and butties at the party HQ (a terraced house in Wolseley Street). My dad and his mate were Labour councillors in our home town. It was unthinkable to not be in a trade union. Labour may not be in a good place but at least I'm in the tent pissing out and not outside pissing in. It's my party and I'll cry if I want to...

Just remembered...Phoenix....That was the name of the special school (as we called 'em then) at Mile End where Blair Peach worked. The kids there all loved Blair to bits, and they came to his funeral, along with 22000 others... we all sang the Internationale...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 03:54 PM

Steve I ought to clarify..

When I was taking the piss out of the 'care in the community' element of my local Labour party members,

..it's not referring to politics [ie, left or right of the party], but personalities..

Bloody awkward time and energy draining self important people with psychological 'issues'..

Labour, being a compassionate inclusive fraternity, seems to attract a lot of 'em..

Then mix that with cider and waccy baccy.. it's a nightmare putting up with them..

I've never had sufficient patience.

Maybe, it's just worse in the south west towns I grew up in...???

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 03:29 PM

"BTW, appending multiple exclamation marks to a statement is not only very bad from the point of view of the use of punctuation, but it adds no weight whatever to the point you’re attempting to make."

It is of no consequence to me!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 13 Dec 20 - 03:22 PM

Steve - no.. thank you.. that was a bloody good read...