BS Avian flu epidemic?

Subject: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: yrlancslad
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 11:21 PM

Hi, an American friend of mine who has recently got the job of disaster co-ordinator for his college has really got a hair up his jacksie about the coming avian flu epedemic. Claims predictions of a billion dead world-wide and that the UK is already looking or extra
morgue space.
He is quietly advising all his friends to stockpile food and water for at least 3 months (and weapons to protect it with)together with fuel for generators, prescription medicines etc, together with a drug, Tamiflu, which is supposed to aleviate the effects of the flu if you get it.
My first inclination was to write him off as a newly minted nut along with all the other survivalist sweethearts we have around here but what do I know? Nothing, and this guy has researched it as part of his job and is quite seriously doing it for himself and family.
Anybody out there with some real knowledge about all this that can give me a second opinion as my wife is taking it very seriously and pushing me to do likewise?
(No survivalist nuts please, just folks with some research and factual knowledge behind them
Thanks

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 11:26 PM

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9366699/

Give the above a read and relax somewhat.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 11:29 PM

http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Investigation/story?id=1130392&page=1

I don't doubt your friend got the info from this story (or one very much like it). Read that and stop relaxing.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 11:37 PM

http://www.birdflutoday.com/

Then read this and relax . . . .

Millions ain't billions, 'cept maybe when Halliburton is doing its billing to the government . . . .

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 11:56 PM

Yeah, the world is about due for another flu pandemic. Been predicted for years now. The CDC says There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia. However, vaccine development efforts are under way. Research studies to test a vaccine to protect humans against H5N1 virus began in April 2005. (Researchers are also working on a vaccine against H9N2, another bird flu virus subtype.)

However, a contract to develop an H5N1 vaccine was let to two companies in August, 2005. This would be an inactivated virus vaccine.

In the meantime, wash your hands thoroughly and use other good, sensible, health techniques.

(Why would you stockpile weapons? What are you going to do, shoot the virus? Oh well, I guess some folks will worry about 'most anything.)

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 12:26 AM

"FDA approved Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate), an oral anti-viral drug for the treatment of uncomplicated influenza in patients one year and older whose flu symptoms have not lasted more than two days. This product is approved to treat Type A and B influenza; however, the majority of patients included in the studies were infected with type A, the most common in the U.S. Efficacy of Tamiflu in the treatment of influenza in subjects with chronic cardiac disease and/or respiratory disease has not been established."

"Your chances of avoiding the flu are better when you:

Keep your distance from people with the flu.
Wash your hands frequently.
Avoid second-hand cigarette smoke.
Try to quit smoking.
Maintain a healthy lifestyle, including a good diet, adequate sleep, low stress and lots of water to drink."

And, reading the second quotation, I am hooped.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 12:30 AM

"Avoid second-hand cigarette smoke." OK, maybe not hooped. I do smoke, but I seldom hand around others that do (or don't). So I'll be able to avoid that anyway.

"Maintain a healthy lifestyle, including a good diet, adequate sleep, low stress and lots of water to drink." Riggggghhhhttt.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: yrlancslad
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 12:37 AM

Thanks Peace, after reading the pieces you suggest I can see several sensible precautions we can take without going crazy over this thing. Stuff that would be helpful in the event of earthquake, flu or even terroist attack although thats unlikely in our secluded neck of the woods.Personally I was finding the level of stock piling and accompanying attitudes and worst case scenarios this guy was laying down more scary than the potential disasters.
Rapaire, the weapons are to fight off looters after your food and water (scary huh?)Thanks for the practical suggestions though.
I do know that pandemics are possible though as neither my father nor I knew my grandmother (his mother) as she died in the Spanish flu pandemic in 1920 which I believe killed off some 20,000,000 people worldwide, almost as many as world war I.
Optimistically------

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 01:01 AM

yrlancslad,

These things scare all of us. But in fact there isn't a whole lot we can do about it.

Once when I taught up north one of the students came to school with 'slap face syndrome'. It is also called Fifth disease. Not harmful to the child but VERY dangerous to women in their first trimester of pregnancy. FOUR staff were in their first trimester including my wife who was training the school secretary. Had to send them all home for quite a while. Anyway, when I went home after a day's work I stripped at the door, put the clothing in a plastic bag and then straight into the washer. Went to the shower. Came out and dressed. Then did the laundry. Went on for about a month.

Rapaire's mention of 'wash your hands' regularly is great advice. If the flu starts near you or your family, face masks are a good idea. But likelihood is that you won't need any of that.

Hang tough, buddy.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 04:43 AM

Well it scares the bird shit outta me folks. Should you open your mail if an epidemic starts, I mean; you don't know wh

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Donuel
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 08:46 AM

The evolution of the virus to jump species has not occured so relax.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 12:31 PM

No, Donuel. I think I remember that recently a couple of cases were found that had obviously jumped species.

Down with Kentucky Fried Chicken! And now you know the horrible truth about Tweetie, Donald, Daffy and the rest!

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 01:02 PM

"Influenza A viruses are found in many different animals, including ducks, chickens, pigs, whales, horses, and seals. However, certain subtypes of influenza A virus are specific to certain species, except for birds which are hosts to all subtypes of influenza A. Subtypes that have caused widespread illness in people either in the past or the current period are H3N2, H2N2, H1N1, and H1N2. H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes have caused outbreaks in pigs and H7N7 and H3N8 viruses have caused outbreaks in horses."

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: M.Ted
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:36 PM

If we are to believe the CDC, our biggest avian risk is Chicken Little--

Key Facts About Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) and Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:06 PM

From what I've read about the H5N1 virus -- and not just from the CDC! -- I agree with their assessment, at least for now.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 01:23 PM

On PBS last night (with the manipulative Bill Moyers) they presented a study on the avian flu as it is occurring right now.

One viralogist said that the expected sequence of events leading to a pandemic would be:

8 or 10 people identified as infected, most of them from the same cause, i.e. in common eating sick fowl. (This has happened.)

The next step would be an outbreak here and there of infected people ranging from people of the same village as the first patients to an occasional caregiving person such as a nurse or a doctor, indicating human to human adaptation. (This has happened.)

Next would come, say, 800 people identified as victims. He said that at this point it would still be containable by means ranging from closing schools and offices to isolating towns and villages. Vaccines and medications such as Tamiflu would be instituted on a massive scale. (This has not (yet) happened.)

The next step would be reports of thousands of people. No longer containable.

Within three months it would be all over the world, carried by travellers and infected non-symptomatic persons.

There are a few people who test as being infected but who remain non-symptomatic. He said that that he considers those as being perhaps more dangerous, because when an infected person dies, the virus dies with its host. In a non-symptomatic person the virus is still there and available for mutation.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 04:14 PM

Incidentally, they made the point that the 1918 Spanish Influenza had a mortality rate of under 2% - and still killed somewhere between 20 million and 40 million people worldwide.

The avian flu, in contrast, has been killing right around 50%.

One thing they didn't mention was the possible ameliorating effect of everyone wearing simple masks. All the health workers in the documentary wore them, so they obviously judge them to be of use.

Asia is evidently at much greate risk than is the western world because of its ubiquitous household habit of keeping a few ducks, geese and chickens, as well as pigs and goats, for their own use or for income. One of the control methods they are trying to inculcate in the populace is of keeping only one species on the premises, hoping to keep cross infection at bay.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Peace
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:25 PM

Ebola has a death rate of 80-90%.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:48 PM

Sure, and there's not much I can do about either one that I'm not doing already. Besides, ebola is ultimately very rare.

But I don't think we're going to see death carts in the streets and hear "Bring out your dead!" again.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:50 PM

Correction, Peace: my mortality rate is 100%. :)

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: M.Ted
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:51 PM

According to the CDC:

So far, no sustained human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus has been identified, and no evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza virus genes has been found;

Also from the CDC website:

Infection: The virus does not typically infect humans. In 1997, however, the first instance of direct bird-to-human transmission of influenza A (H5N1) virus was documented during an outbreak of avian influenza among poultry in Hong Kong; the virus caused severe respiratory illness in 18 people, of whom 6 died. Since that time, there have been other instances of H5N1 infection among humans (see Avian Influenza Infection in Humans). However, H5N1 viruses thus far have not been capable of efficient human-to-human transmission; health officials continue to monitor the situation closely for evidence of H5N1 transmission between people.

• Spread: Infected birds shed virus in saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Avian influenza viruses spread among susceptible birds when they have contact with contaminated excretions. It is believed that most cases of H5N1 infection in humans have resulted from contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces.

The bottom line is that Bill"The Sky is Falling"Moyers" seems to have de-emphasized the fact that the H5N1 virus is not now capabable of the kind of human-to-human transmission, that would make it a threat for a Pandemic, and there no evidence that the genetic reassortment that is necessary for this to occur is taking place.   


It does make a better story if you leave that out--

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 06:07 PM

Ted, I agree with you that there is currently no evidence of "sustained" human to human infection and "H5N1 viruses thus far have not been capable of efficient human-to-human transmission." and agree that it appears "that the H5N1 virus is not now capabable of the kind of human-to-human transmission."

Does that relieve your mind? It does not relieve mine.

Your take on Moyers is so different from mine that it doesn't appear that we can have a dialogue on this subject. It was NOT a sky-is-falling presentation. I think I can safely infer that you have not watched this PBS documentary.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:07 PM

I have worked down in Guangzhou where SARS started and where there have been cases of avain flu. The absolutely filthy conditions in which many animals are raised there has to be seen to be believed. Ditto the conditions for many peasant farmers. It is also highly densley populated. If and I think it is when, the jump is made and it does become a human strain then it will spread quickly.

The strains of Hong Kong flu which we saw in the past did not originate in HK they originated in Guangzhopu province. The mobility of the Chinese is now much greater too, particularly from poor areas to the cities.

As usual here the Chinese Govt comment on infections overseas but there is little mentioned in the Chinese press. The Chinese press is state controlled (as is all media) and they can spike a story in the interest of 'social stability'.

Quite honestly if it happens I would not leave China. With modern transportation nowhere is going to be safe.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: M.Ted
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:06 PM

It should relieve your mind, Ebbie--it is scary, but it is a "what if..." scenario--the two most significant components are not there, and we don't know that they ever will be there.

When Shanghaiceltic says "If, and I think it is when the jump is made" he presumes that the genetic reassortments that would allow this to happen are inevitable--from my review of the variety of informational sites(and not just lately, I've been following this for quite a while now), including the one I've posted above, there is no one among the scientists who work with this stuff thinks it is inevitable, nor even necessarily likely--it just that it may be possible, so they are keeping an eye on it.

I am more concerned with the Flu I've got now, and the fact that it is making the rounds and that every one but the disease folks seems to know about it--

Incidentally, Ebbie, in case you didn't catch it--I am not now, nor have I ever been, an admirer of Bill Moyers--

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: GUEST,.gargoyle
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:26 PM

United States STATE Department

Tamiflu - (Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate)developed by Gilead Sciences IS effective against influenza (this is why London stockpiled supplies for police/fire personnel and the USA has placed it in their embassies)

http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html

Sincerely,
Gargoyle

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epidemic?
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:05 PM

"when an infected person dies, the virus dies with its host."

Not quite - it is BURIED with the host - depending on the capability of the virus to survive long term, it MAY be viable when it can later emerge.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 12:49 AM

M.Ted, I wouldn't have guessed! :)

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: M.Ted
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 01:04 AM

I keep it pretty well under wraps--and only bring it up whenever his name is mentioned;-)

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 01:55 AM

LOL

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 08:47 AM

I don't listen to ANY of the talking heads. I've got my own opinions and don't need them to try to change them. So there.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 06:44 PM

For the sanguine among us, here is some (dis)encouraging news.

Associated Press/ September 22, 2005

"The arrival of the deadly bird flu on Europe's doorstep after it killed dozens of people and caused huge economic damage in Asia has the scientific community divided over just how it got there.

"Medical experts blame the scourge's spread on migratory birds but naturalists say the theory is nonsense and argue that the farming of chicken and ducks, amongst which the disease is most prevalent, is responsible.

"The World Health Organisation (WHO) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) believe the H5N1 flu virus is spread by wild species, which carry the virus from infected areas and pass it to other flocks at stop-off points along their globe-crossing migratory routes.

"Birds play a role in the primary infection of the country, but then after that there's no need for wildlife. It will spread very easily from one village to another through trade," said Joseph Domenech, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's chief vet.

"Given that it is a highly contagious disease, we were sure it could spread from one region to another, either through wildlife or through trade and movements of products. So this happened and we are not surprised at all."

"The H5N1 variant of the disease has been known to scientists for decades as a latent killer within the world's bird populations.

"However, it became a global concern when in Hong Kong in 1997 the strain first mutated into a form lethal to humans, killing six people.

"The WHO warned that if the virus further mutated and was able to attach itself to viruses easily passed between humans -- like that which causes the common cold -- the world would face a global pandemic that could kill up to 100 million people."


The Debate Sharpens

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 09:18 PM

I watched the wide angle documentary the other night as well, and
I found it informative - I dont necessarily worry about it every day but I would discount the possibility of a pandemic.

A couple of years ago just before the SARS outbreak, there was an article in Scientific American a fairly respected publication, about the possibility of H5N1 mutating into a contagious virus that could spread world wide. The scientists in the article in fact took the view that it was a matter of 'when' not 'if'.

other influenza viri change and adapt all the time I wouldnt discount the possibility of H5N1 mutating to a human to human virus. And with
modern air travel allowing continental flight within a few hours it could in fact spread very rapidly. Its also easy to see how a virus could mutate.

so mted, even though you might not really worry about it we have plenty of evidence from the past - look at what happened to 25% of Europe with the black death, or when European diseases decimated the North American indigenous populations. Of the spanish flu outbreak of 1918 that killed between 20 and 50 million worldwide. The mortality
of which was 1-2% (which by my calculations means at least a Billion? people were affected - is that possible?) The Asian flu so far has killed about 27 of the 60 people infected in Vietnam which is around a 50% mortality rate.

A CDC scientist that Bill Moyers interviewed after the program
wasnt alarmist but did mention that although the cost of developing a vaccine and stockpiling it would cost several billion, the best outcome would be that it would be unnecessary. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

from an economic standpoint - SARS did a number on the Canadian economy especially Toronto - not to mention Hong Kong. So while I wouldnt spend my time worrying about it it might not be a bad idea to
be prepared - ie. stock up on food/water medical supplies and keep a hand powered solar radio.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 09:31 PM

I have food, water, and a hand-crankable radio at home all the time. Also batteries and flashlights and, yes, firearms and ammunition.

But I still don't see the point. ASSUMING that something -- a flu pandemic, for instance -- became so bad that I wasn't going out and the electricty and water were cut off, why would I assume that anyone was broadcasting? Especially if the electricity was out. And I really don't see how firearms would help me (other than hunting, if it came to that).

The last pandemic (Asian Flu) didn't close up the world. The Spanish Influenza of 1918 didn't close down the world. Neither would this one, no matter how many died.

Assume that 200,000,000 die. That's 5% of the world's population (assuming a population of 4,000,000,000, and I think it's higher). That's less than the population of the US, and far less than the population of China or India.

I'm not being hard, uncaring, or cynical. But a death rate of 5% would have been very, very acceptable to our ancestors -- and not all that long ago.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: GUEST,.gargoyle
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 12:01 AM

Repaire - you are a voice... of logical calm... in a sea of hysteria.

Sincerely,
Gargoyle

Please continue spreading oil on troubled waters.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 12:18 AM

That's 50%, Rap, not 5%.

I am not hysterical about this. The older I get, the less alarmist I become. I can live with the possibility of a nuclear blast disintegrating me, for instance; should it happen it would be a quick way to do something I will eventually do one way or another. Surviving, however briefly, such an event and being with other people that I could not help would definitely not be the death I chose. I would rather be in the first rank.

However, having an inexorable sickness slide around the world and across my community would also not be the way I choose to go. Even if I myself survived. Having 10,000-15,000 people die n my town of 30,000? Nah. A city like New York? Dead bodies in apartment houses and hospitals and mansions and homeless shelters? Nah.

Is it hysteria to be visualizing that possibility? Nah. True, it may never happen. Bully. But the time to think of it is NOW. And if the NOW is 15 years from today and I have not yet thought about it - or needed to - Bully.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 05:07 PM

well the SARS outbreak only killed maybe 30-40 people but it did a number on Torontos economy as well as the rest of Canada not to mention Hong Kong.

Even here in Vancouver people stayed away from public events and restaurants in droves. It was definitely felt in the economy, even though a small number of people were affected.

Of course you may talk about the odds being low, Im sure the people of New Orleans would have said the same thing before Katrina hit.

While I wouldnt worry about it too much It doesnt hurt to plan, and Id damn well have the CDC prepare flu vaccines etc. for an outbreak that may not occur even though it may cost 5 billion dollars, because if it comes and theyre not prepared - its going to cost a lot more than that.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 07:49 PM

Precisely, petr.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 08:16 PM

"keep a hand powered solar radio"

Actually I'm working on a solar plate for a sex machine.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 08:36 PM

What is a 'handpowered' radio? Magneto crank?

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 09:08 AM

Ebbie, that's two hundred million out of four billion. And here's my radio, only mine is brown. It's not the cutting edge but it works for me.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Ebbie
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 11:50 AM

OK, Rap. I guess the part I don't understand of that scenario is how many people one would expect would be exposed or come down with the flu. Some, of course, would escape exposure and some would have a natural immunity.

200 million people- it boggles my mind to think in those terms. But it might alleviate the overpopulation of the world somewhat. :)

Thanks for the link. In what way is a receiving radio better in an emergency than a transmitter? I have friends who are into ham radio.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 11:57 AM

Yes, and you might have another one if I ever got up the initiative to learn Morse and the technical side. I've only been at it since High School.

The radio, like the Internet, expands my world beyond that of wherever I'm living. I had a SW receiver in Korea and I used to listen to Radio Moscow's concerts and the BBC as well as the Voice of America and the Armed Forces Network.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Bill D
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 01:20 PM

time to re-tweet

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 03:17 PM

We seem to need disasters and rumors of disasters these days. I keep thinking, "Nobody guaranteed you a life free of all risk and safe from everything that might harm you." True, you can minimize the dangers, but you will never eliminate them. And truly, when Atropos snips the thread, that's it -- there ain't no more, no matter how hard you've tried to run away and hide.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Bill D
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 04:04 PM

I find it morbidly fascinating that programs like The Discovery Channel and The History Channel take something like a hurricane as a cue to dig out and re-play all the old programs on other hurricanes....and then on ALL natural disasters up to an including potential asteroids, volcanos, landslides, earthquakes and invasions of killer bees!

Criminy...on days like this I'd like the choice of watching something soothing and non-threatening for a bit!

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 07:12 PM

Handpowered radios are for cranks...

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 07:33 PM

That's why I've put batteries in mine. I'm only cranky when I need to be.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 25 Sep 05 - 04:43 PM

I have a radio , (cost about $30 canadian) that is (nimh battery powered) as well as solar and handcranked. Also has a flashlight
and siren. Cant recall the name but I think its useful to have in an
emergency when batteries are hard to find, and theres no power.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: GUEST
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 07:02 AM

Check out the book "The Great Influenza" about the circumstances of the pandemic of 1918-1919. The book says it was atypical, the evidence is that it started in the US, not Asia, and was transmitted when troops were sent to support the WW I allies. There were warnings by doctors about shipping infected troops, but goodness gracious, there was government inertia and ineptitude involved...

As for stockpiling weapons to guard food supplies, this sounds like a paranoid response. With a large die-off of people, the problem is not lack of resources, but preservation of the medical infrastructure.

Subject: RE: BS Avian flu epedemic?
From: Rapparee
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 08:40 AM

You're right about the weapons and such, GUEST.

Stockpiling weapons seems to me to always be kind of silly -- Jerry Falwell did it for the Y2K thing, when he had publicly stated that "The Rapture" was going to carry him off to Heaven. Apparently he didn't have the courage of his beliefs.