BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:21 PM

Yeah, Bobert, that's a good point. The only explanation they could make is that a huge shift occurred in the two days between the latest poll and the one before. But that isn't likely, and if it's true those kinds of shifts are rarely permanent.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bobert
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 08:13 PM

Three polls in one week. Two sasy it's even, one says Bush is up by 11 points and all claim to be within 4% of being right...

Someone had better get a second opionion on the 4% because me and the Wes Ginny Slide Rule have figgured it out several ways and all three can't be correct...

Plus, as per usual, polls are absolutely rediculous...

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 06:26 PM

Polls or not I strongly urge you all to read the Frank Rich piece in the Arts/Leisure section of the Sunday NY Times of 9/5/04.

Yes, Rich is half heartedly for Kerry, but wholeheartedly against Bush.   The piece is truly insightful regarding the character of Bush, the hype of the convention, and how some devout "cowards" who stayed out of service have made one who served with honor into a questionable figure---as Rich points out, not different than what W pulled on McCain in 2000, and dear old dad on Dukakis before that---though to dear old dad's credit he did serve and he pulled the dirty tricks in a different direction.

Read the piece and your eyes will open if they are not already


Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 05:07 PM

Sorry Grok, I realize I am breaking Mudcat tradition!! :)

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 04:32 PM

Damn, Ron, you'll bugger things up by bringing facts into this.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:42 PM

Guest, you may want to check your facts before you post.

There are 3 presidential and one vice-presidential debates scheduled for this year. The first one is scheduled for Sept.30, the second on Oct. 8, and the third on Oct. 13. The vice-presidents debate will be on Oct. 5.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Alice
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:09 PM

If you want to help Kerry win, do something.
Volunteer your help: John Kerry Campaign
Donate here:Democratic National Committee

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:00 PM

GUEST,

The presidency is never the challenger's "to lose." it is always the incumbent's "to lose." The incumben has a massive advantage in American politics, where every utterance he makes is on the news. People say things like "why Isn't Kerry fighting back?" Well, of course he is, but the news is not reporting it. So Kerry may well lose, but don't try to rewrite history and claim he was ever LIKELY to have won.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:08 PM

All the Democrats have to do is to make some ads from clips from the Daily Show.

Things like

Zell Miller saying anyone who calls our troups "occupiers" is unfit to lead the country with the Republican convention wildly applauding followed by George W Bush calling them occupiers three times.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:57 AM

Debates may well never take place, as there is only a potential for them to be harmful for Bush. Why would Bush take that chance in what could be a close race.

The election is now a short two months, or a little over 8 weeks away. Polls now DO matter, especially if they are showing that Bush has come out of his convention with this kind of a lead. This could well mean that he is finally breaking away from Kerry, now that the voters are starting to pay attention.

If the economy doesn't do a major tank in the next two months, which looks likely at this point, and if the terrorists keep up their insane level of terrorist attacks in Israel, Iraq, and now Russia, which it appears almost a certainty, the American voter is going to stick with Bush, because truly, Kerry isn't a legitimate or authentic alternative for the majority of voters. His positions on the war on Iraq and the war on terror are nearly identical to Bush's. There are differences between him and Bush on the domestic agenda, but if people feel the economy isn't going to tank, with the current levels of terrorist attacks going on by the Muslim jihad terrorist movements, Bush is almost certainly a shoe-in at this point.

As usual, the Democrats are clueless about these realities. They'd rather talk about how mean the Republicans are to them, as if anyone gives a shit.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:22 AM

Unless someone has a crystal ball, this discussion is nothing but guessing. This election certainly was not decided last year. The debates have not occured. There are many things that can happen over the next two months.   No one, especially the Kerry camp, is worrying over the recent polls. Everyone knew that Bush would spike after the convention.

Remember that these polls are based on voters who are likely to vote. There appear to be very view undecided voters at this point.   IF everyone who was eligible to vote went to the polls, Kerry would indeed win. Statistically there are more registered Democrats.   The big problem is that most people do not vote.   The issue will probably become which party can get the most voters to the polls, and how accurately the votes will be counted this time.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: alanabit
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:12 AM

The Americans have a choice between a Conservative and an Ultra Conservative. All Bush had to do to win, was to prove that he was more conservative than Kerry. That is what the current political reality in the US demands. Of course, voters should try to choose the lesser of two evils. I can understand why a lot of voters can't get too excited by it all though!

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 08:57 AM

Kerry's supporters are really in denial. The best news that the Kerry camp can come up with right now is that he might be "statistically tied". Or losing.

Neither of which shows that Kerry will win a race that was his to lose. Which he is. And may very well.

And Democrats have no one but themselves to blame for this, because it is the mainstream Dems who chose a candidate that can't even beat the most reviled president in memory, or the party that has had majority support among voters once since God knows when.

Doesn't matter. It is looking more and more like Bush will win. The Dems will blame Nader. And the world will be truly screwed by the "centrist" Democrats once again.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: alanabit
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 04:03 AM

Bush "won" this election last year. However, the pendulum will swing back and the losses he will suffer in the Senate and House of Representatives could well strip him of most of his power for the last two years of his presidency. I am afraid that this current election always was over before it started.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 02:00 AM

Tom Clancy, in his better novels (the Jack Ryan ones), made the point that the Democrats and Reprobates, sorry, Republicans, usually get voted for by people whose minds are already made up. Elections are decided by that 10% group of 'uncommitted' voters. I doubt this election will be very different in that regard. The campaign leading to a win for Bush or Kerry will necessitate that sufficient numbers of undecideds have an issue over which to GET riled up within two days of the election. (Unfortunately, the Diebold votes are a wild card.) The Kerry crew needs to find a piece of information that is very damaging to Bush, and release that info with proof good enough to influence people before Bush and the gang have time to spin-control it. There is where victory resides, IMO.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:38 AM

From the Bloomberg story reporting the poll:

Other nationwide polls show that Bush and Kerry remain in a statistical tie, as they have been since April. Bush held a 2 point lead over Kerry in a Zogby International poll of 1,001 voters Aug. 30-Sept. 2, within the 3.2 percent margin of error. In an American Research Group Inc. poll of 800 likely voters Aug. 30-Sept. 1, Bush and Kerry each received 47 percent.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Nerd
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:35 AM

All I know is, Kerry's campaign against Dean looked dead, too. Dean led him by more than 11 points. He went entirely under the radar and destroyed Gep and Dean from behind the scenes. He's actually GOOD at campaigning, folks.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:21 AM

We aim to please. You aim too, please.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:18 AM

:)

How witty you are Grok!

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: wysiwyg
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:02 AM

Yeah, OK, but is Bush's lead on being for or against forum moderation??????

~S~

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Little Hawk
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:59 AM

I think it's leftover trauma from childhood toilet training... :-)

So, Martin, are you saying that Bush has edged out Chongo at this point? Chongo says, "Don't count your bananas until you're back down the grapevine."

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:57 AM

You seem to be overly worried about the exchange between Martin and me. Do you have issues? You seem to, because you follow others around--mostly guy others. And you still haven't learned to spell sophomoric you stunned asshole.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:46 AM

It seems like Grok and Martin have run out of anything intelligent to say so they end up trading sophmoric barbs. Notice how it always has to do with bathroom humor? You guys overcompensating for being shortchanged below the belt?

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:08 AM

SINSULL, good eye.

"Then I thought about who else might be watching. In a safe house, in a mountain compound, in a supporter's city apartment, somewhere, anywhere, I pictured bin Laden, watching our President speak, while he wondered just what it will take to get his name back on the agenda."

This sends shivers up the spine and back down again.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: katlaughing
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 11:26 PM

Sins, excellent point and very well said. Thank you.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 11:05 PM

If the Yanks know, have they told the Red Sox? I bet the Mets are in on it too.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:33 PM

There's a rumour that the Yanks know where Osama is and are just waiting until later on in the campaign to nab him, to boost Bush. Does anyone know if there's anything in this, or is it a myth?

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:04 PM

MG: That was pretty darn good. LOL. Mostly because I wanted to be pissed off at you, and as I was composing a zinger to post here I burst out laughing. Thanks lots.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:00 PM

As long as Howdy Doody isn't on at the same time.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Once Famous
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 09:54 PM

It is true that this poll was taken right after the convention ended, so it figures to be somewhat skewered.

However, a Munsters festival on the TVLand cable channel should help swing it back the other way for Kerry.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:56 PM

Sullivan:   Just wait for a few days prior to the election. I am a cynic.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: SINSULL
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:46 PM

An observation on the Convention that I haven't heard before - it scares me.
Neither Here Nor There
Issue 109

A Brief Reaction to The Republican National Convention

Over the course of the past four days, Republican after Republican after Democrat (thank you, Zell Miller) has taken to the podium at Madison Square Garden to make sure this nation remembers that we were attacked on the morning of September 11th, 2001. They have reminded us, again and again, because in their eyes, since that awful day, President Bush has demonstrated the conviction, the determination and the fortitude to take the fight to the doorstep of our enemy, no matter the country where that doorstep might be found. America, they say, needs President Bush because he will not waver in the fight on terror and he will not rest until our country is free from the threat of attack.

Something struck me as I watched the Convention coverage on TV this week. In the days following September 11th, the President and his administration bombarded us with information implicating Osama bin Laden. This man, it was said, financed the attacks, was deeply involved in the logistical planning and nothing short of his capture or, even better, his death, would be an acceptable result of the manhunt upon which our armed forces were about to embark. "Dead or alive" was the refrain from the Oval Office. Afghanistan was invaded. Around-the-clock coverage of the decimation of Tora Bora flooded into our homes via satellite. Not a day went by without a possible bin Laden sighting or the capture of a high ranking associate, someone who would no doubt bring us that much closer to finding the monster behind it all.

Then things started to change.

Bin Laden was slowly phased out as the core issue, as a necessary goal, instead we were now hunting "terrorists." In time, we came to be told that it didn't really matter whether bin Laden was alive or dead, since we had done so much damage to the infrastructure of his murderous group. And this week, in New York, just a few miles from the hole in the ground that was the World Trade Center, not once did I hear the name bin Laden mentioned by a Convention speaker. Instead, the successes that are Afghanistan and Iraq were repeatedly referenced, evidence and justification for the assertion that George W. Bush has made this country safer and stronger than it was when he first took office. Saddam Hussein's name was front and center, his incarceration and impending trial a victory not only for the liberated peoples of Iraq but also for American liberty and safety. John Kerry's name was also on everyone's lips, and band-aids with Purple Heart decals were a hot fashion accessory, Kerr
y's war wounds having become an object of ridicule in Republican circles, ironic considering the combat records of the men leading the mocking. Nebulous plans for Social Security reform, expansion in the areas of private business and home ownership, and an increase in education funding were touted with little to no actual explanation of policy and/or funding. And blanket calls for inclusion and compassion rounded out the rhetoric, while simultaneously a platform of exclusion, bigotry and fear-mongering was endorsed.

Yet with all of this talk, with hours of speeches, his name was never mentioned. His deeds dominated this event and were the driving force behind its choice of location, but his name was never mentioned. His cohorts, the group he founded and funded, have since pulled off devastating attacks in Bali, Turkey, Spain and numerous other nations, but his name was never mentioned. He is still out there somewhere, and that's why his name was never mentioned. America's hunt for Osama bin Laden has disappeared from the realm of Republican discourse.

I sat in front of my television last night, watching our President and thinking, knowing I had to write something but not knowing what I would say. Then I thought about who else might be watching. In a safe house, in a mountain compound, in a supporter's city apartment, somewhere, anywhere, I pictured bin Laden, watching our President speak, while he wondered just what it will take to get his name back on the agenda.

More later
Sullivan

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:36 PM

First, I don't a poll taken so soon after the GOP convention with all its attendant free publicity has much validity.

Second, polls only reflect what the outcome would be if all the people surveyed actually voted.

The curious thing about this year's electorate is that those who like GWB don't like him with anything near the intensity of those who dislike him. And I firmly believe that this intense-dislike factor will result in more anti-Bush than pro-Bush folks actually going to the polls and voting.

I don't believe it's enough of a factor to overcome an 11% Bush lead in the polls, but if that lead shrinks to around 5% by election day, Kerry will win.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:18 PM

They printed the results that way so Bush could add them up. He's ahead by two then. Kerry will make that up in no time.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill Hahn//\\
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:15 PM

AH, Ron, would that you be correct in your assesment.   I wonder.   People look at headlines, slogans, etc;.   Sad but true.

I am only hoping that we are not going to get a Nov or Oct. surprise as has happened---thinking of things like hostage releases, Bin Ladn happens to turn up or some such.

Proably the dirtiest campaign I can remember coming up===and so far Kerry is running a class act.   Sadly, so did Stevenson and so did McGovern, to name two.

Bill Hahn

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 07:05 PM

Kerry may be doing the right thing by waiting.....the public has SUCH a short attention span. You want them to remember the point you made YESTERDAY..

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Don Firth
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:56 PM

Last night, after the Republican Convention adjourned, Kerry hosed Bush and Cheney down pretty good. Kerry's problem so far is that he has been too damned polite. But this is likely to change.

Wait 'til the debates! Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!!!

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST,peedeecee
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:50 PM

Not only that, Michael Moore has two new books coming out in early October -- and one consists of letters written to him by the troops in Iraq.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:49 PM

That will change. Kerry is fighting back. The numbers will swing back in his favor. Farenheit 9/11 will be released on VHS and DVD in a few weeks. All the Republicans who would not go to the theater will be going to Blocbuster and watching it in the privacy of their own home. You have to believe that the truth will come out and the Bush error, oops era, will come to an end.

Subject: RE: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 06:04 PM

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Subject: BS: New poll shows Bush ahead by 11 points
From: Once Famous
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 05:58 PM

I read on Yahoo today a new poll by Time magazine has Bush ahead by 11 points.