BS: Facing Frances

Subject: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:19 PM

This is a friend's take on the hurricane bearing down on Flori-DUH:      

    Based on the Brevard County Emergency Management, Sheriffs Office, KSC folks, etc. This isn't gonna be a direct hit but more of a serious slice. Starting ~ Sebastian the eye heads to O-town.
       The folks I talk with behind the scene are trying not to panic the people. By holding back critical information until the first ~180K folks get off the barrier islands, trailer parks are vacated and areas prone to flooding are abandoned it keeps a manageable stream of traffic on the inadequate roads. It's sublimely comical to hear our Governor speak reassuringly of how help will be there for us. Kinda like the wolf saying stay calm only a few will be eaten today. Much of this was anticipated but disregarded as the reckless development was encouraged. If it gets bad enough well pay to fix it. It didn't have to be this severe and the development machine knows it. They'll make a fortune "helping" rebuild.
       If the storm holds steady (which it is expected to strengthen) south to central Brevard (~40 miles) will have a chance to build from a clean slate. Serious information will hit the fan late tomorrow when the certainty becomes apparent. Expect Andrew like devastation to the right of the eye for 25 to 40 miles, Sebastian to Cocoa north.
       Then the real bad stuff kicks in. No power for nearly a month. This is likely to halt water, sewage, gas. The ripple effect of this---no food stores, no gas, no pharmacies, no hardware stores.

I was planning to visit my folks this weekend but driving into the path of a hurricane seems unwise...my dad won't evacuate. I hope he and my mom aren't in the eye. He lives in a tall heavy building. But my brother doesn't. He is very worried too, but hasn't left yet either. I feel sick about this one....harpy

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: katlaughing
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:32 PM

Doesn't sound good, hg. I am sorry, but will keep good thoughts for all. One does wonder why they keep rebuilding in the same places, same types of buildings, etc. meaning no offense to you or your family.

Stay safe,

kat

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Amos
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:38 PM

Fingers crossed for ya, Harpy.

And for your own.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: CarolC
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 08:44 PM

Good luck to all those in the path of the storm.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 09:27 PM

...The worst part for me is my son is way over in Pensacola and the rest of my little family is in PB county and I can't reach anyone on the telephone...I'll try to call tomorrow and see if my parents and my brother and his family will come to my house...thank you for your kind words, mudcatters...

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 01 Sep 04 - 09:49 PM

I HATE HURRICANES!

Looks like we folks in the Florida Panhandle only have a very slight chance of Frances coming directly at us, but the possibility always exists that a strong storm like Frances can punch its way through the peninsula and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico strong enough to rebuild and threaten us or points further west like Mobile, New Orleans & Galveston/Houston. It's gonna be bad if someplace takes a direct hit, but it'll be even worse if it goes straight up the Atlantic coastline. It could raise hell all the way from Miami to Charleston.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Mudlark
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 05:23 AM

Hurricanes and tornadoes are a scourge and scary as hell. Especially when family is scattered. Good luck, all.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 12:47 PM

Cleanup is tough. When I did a day of clean up after a tornado, I found that the need for help exceeded the supply of helpers. The red cross trucks were manned by kind old folks who could give you a tarp, gloves, coffee and food but what's really needed to go with that is mucho handpower. The biggest help was a team of ten highschool soccer players lead by their coach. They hauled more stuff to the curb in an hour than individuals could in a day. It was unecessary to wait to be invited to help. We just showed up on the street and helped homeowners do whatever they were doing. Having been through that, I wish you all the best in Florida. I have family in Melbourne.

Annie

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Blackcatter
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 03:44 PM

Well right now, it looks as if my home might be the exact place where the eyes of Charley and Frances will cross.

Even with all the "keep calm" stuff the press/gov. is saying, they're already saying this could cost more than Andrew's cost.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 03:48 PM

Well, in the Midwest where we get plenty of flooding from rivers, lakes, and streams, there are now more and more localities that aren't going to get "helped" and rebuilt. Those locales are called a "flood plain" and the definition of which one you are in determines where or if you are allowed to build there. People used to be allowed to move right back in and rebuild, flood after flood, until the US government decided the taxpayers had had enough of subsidizing the lucrative "rebuilding" industries and rewarding people's stupidity for wanting to call a flood plain where their property was wiped out completely every couple of 5-10 years "home".

I'm hoping that will one day be the case with the hurricane locales. When I was in the Outer Banks this summer, looking at all these palatial mansions continuing to be built on what is more a sandbar than an island, all I could do was shake my head, knowing the majority of buildings on the island would be gone in the next 50 years. Maybe even by the end of this year, who knows? Maybe the island will be gone by then too, and moved over a coupla miles or so. That has been the story of the Outer Banks and the "Graveyard of the Atlantic" as the tourista industry loves to call it. It's never made any sense to me to try and sink one's heart's roots down into shifting sands, and making it "forever our home". Seems like lunacy to me.

This summer, we drove over a new inlet created by Isabel last fall. On the island, they were selling as a fundraiser, a calendar with photos, including aerial photos, of the destruction on the islands from that storm. And that was just one storm, which had lessened to a category 2 from a category 5 by the time it hit landfall at the Outer Banks.

The biggest problem with such weather disasters? Have a look see at the NOAA Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters, 1980-2003 website for some interesting insights.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 04:04 PM

One difference between the Atlantic Seaboard and the flood-plains of the Midwest - a Million Dollar View. Ain't nobody gonna stop the upper middle class and the wealthy from enjoying that.

And devastating hurricanes don't hit places every 5 - 10 years. Andrew (1992) his Miami squarely - something that hadn't happened since the 60s. Charley (and now Frances) hitOrlando - the first time since Donna in 1960 that there was this type of damage. The Keys haven't been damaged horribly since the 1960s Before that the 1920s.

The damage Hugo wrought to S. Carolina (89) is not likely to be repeated for another 20 years or so.

Add to that that, for the most part, the damage is quite scattered. Even with Andrew, less than 20% of homes in the Miami area were destroyed. About 30% of the homes on Florida's barrier islands are single family dwellings. The others are large, strong condo towers. I don't like them, but they are structurally designed to withstand the impact of a major hurricane. Some units get trashed, while the one next to it might be completely spared.

I have lived in South and Central Florida for 38 years - I've only been through 3 hurricanes - All without any damage to home or myself.

It's hard to say all that about flood plains.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Larry K
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 04:05 PM

I know that my company (public utility in Michigan) has 30 linesman leaving for Florida tomorrow to help out with the restoration of power.   At least we will be helping out.   I am sure other utilities are doing the same.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 04:16 PM

OF course there are plenty of million dollar views in the flood plains. Why else do you suppose people want to keep building in them?

The flood plain restrictions are based upon the climatology data, which tells climatologists how often a devastating flood hits in a particular area based on how often it has happened, and how high the high water mark was for each flood. That determines whether an area is in a 25, 50, 100 or 500 year flood plain.

If it can be done with rivers, lakes, and streams, it can be done in the coastal areas in the hurricane prone areas too. If you went to the link I provided to the NOAA site, Guest 04:04 PM, you wouldn't sound quite so much like you are talking into your hat about something you obviously don't know anything about. With the data we now have, and the information we get with each new storm, we can easily start making building restrictions for the areas that already flood really badly and shouldn't be allowed to be rebuilt, unless it is done with cold, hard cash and no insurance bail outs or government handouts, IMO.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: SINSULL
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 05:10 PM

Just heard from my niece. Her flight out tomorrow has been cancelled - I guess they are not letting planes land in South Florida. She is low on gas and now has to stock up for the storm she was supposed to miss. Her area is under mandatory evacuation - she is about one block from the ocean on the east side - Boca Raton. Store shelves are empty but a local WalMart is offering water and emergency supplies. She's double sealing things like her computer in garbage bags and taking whatever will fit in her car.

Good luck to you all. What insurance doesn't cover can be replaced. Stay safe.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bill D
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 05:34 PM

it has been evident for a couple of days that this will be nasty...some areas that have not recovered from Charley will get additional damage.

I hope all goes as well as possible, and that lives are protected.

There is no way to declare the entire coast from the Carolinas to Key West as a 'forbidden' area for development, but we should take a serious look at exactly where we allow construction, and the building codes. It would surely be cheaper to make a house or hotel cost 3X, than to pay sky-high insurance and rebuilding costs every 5-20 years.

(and if Cape Canaveral gets it bad, or Miami is leveled, someone may listen.)

Please take care of yourselves and others, Mudcatters...we will be thinking of you constantly....

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 08:01 PM

Thankfully, my family and friends are safely on the gulf coast. I hope all will be well for everyone here who lives or has loved ones on the southeast US coast.

Not much new in the 8 PM forecast. The speed of the storm is slowing a bit, but not the winds. Bahamas tonight and tomorrow; they are still predicting east central Florida as the likely landfall by Friday night. But the path doesn't seem that clear yet, does it?

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Charley Noble
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 08:45 PM

At least here in Maine when we get a major hurricane, we've got bedrock nearby to cling to. If I were in Florida now, I'd drive like Hell to Kansas.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Paul G.
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 11:17 PM

We seem to have lucked out again up here in the northeast corner of the Sunshine State -- expecting only mild effects of the storm now. My son-in-law delivered our grandson to us this evening to keep him out of harms way while he and my daughter stay behind to look after their horses near the projected path of the storm. My partner in music, who lives right in the bullseye near Vero Beach has fled to the family compound in North Carolina. Smart move. We shall see how it goes....Those of you further south of me, stay safe, and be smart.

See you ont the other side of the storm.........

Paul

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: katlaughing
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 11:43 PM

Good to hear from you, Paul. Good luck to your family and the horses.

May all be safe and well.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 02 Sep 04 - 11:54 PM

Paul,

We've got 3 more months of hurricane season . . .



At this point, it looks like the eye might pass south of me (Downtown Orlando), but only 7 hours before I saw Charley's eye pass over me did I get any real evidence that it was heading for us. Besides, the north side of the hurricane is the toughest part. They're forcasting 100mph winds here, We got them as high as 80 with Charley. It's a big storm too. They're projecting landfall of the eye by 1-2PM Saturday (Eastern time) They estimate that the main edge of the storm will hit land around 20 hours before that. It's currently moving at 10mph. If it makes landfall where they figure, it will take 12 hours to get the eye passing Orlando. The heaviest rain (1/2inch to 1 & 1/2inch per hour) is an area over 200 miles in diameter. Those that have the eye pass over them will potentially have 20 hours of heavy rain and hurricane/tropical storm force winds. Luckily I'm surrounded by 4 lakes that can handle 20 inches of rain without much problem, but others aren't as lucky.

Don't know if the rest of the country is getting what the biggest worry for many of us - Charley left so much debris - probably only 70% of the debris, which we all piled up at the edges of our properties, have been picked up and toted away. The rest is sitting there, in front of homes, just waiting for a nasty wind gust to pick part of it up and throw it through a window. The past couple days the county and city officials have been telling homeowners to take the rest of the debris to the collection sites themselves. They haven't been able to explain how people without trucks are supposed to do this. Hell, I don't even have a car, and the debris pile in front of my place is over 8 foot high and runs the entire 80 foot length of the property excepting the driveway.

But when all is said and done, things will likely come off better for most of us that the "worst-case." We're just hoping it isn't another Andrew.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Hrothgar
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 05:27 AM

They should not have named a hurricane after sear, sweet Frances.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 09:47 AM

Oh dear, Roger. Maybe I should stop voting for Frances and go back to voting for Abigail?

Seriously though, my thoughts are with those of you who might be affected by this. I hope that damage is minimal and that you all stay safe.

Keeping my fingers crossed - Jenny

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:19 AM

We haven't heard from Tweed, who lives in West Palm Beach, for several days. He hasn't even been around his own website http://tweedsblues.net/. I know he was planning on being at the Howlin' Wolf Blues Festival in West Point, MS this evening. Hopefully, he just pulled out early and is combining evacuatin' with festival goin'. There's nothin' you can do about the storm and listenin' to some good live blues beats bein' stuck in some high school gymnasium in Imakolee with 300 other smelly evacuees. I hope his new accordion is safe.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Charmion at work
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 10:43 AM

And people say Canadian weather is rough. I prefer the worst an Ottawa winter can throw -- and that's bad shit, believe me -- over the storms that rack the gentle climes my fellow Canucks flee to at the drop of a snowball.

Good luck, southern neighbours.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,blackcatter
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 01:47 PM

It's all a trade. Occasional hurricanes is a price I'm wiling to pay to be able to surf on Christmas day. Everything's green, I'm on my 3rd corn crop in the garden already and If worst comes to worst - the school 2 blocks away is a shelter.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: robomatic
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 02:27 PM

Why do public funds get used to rebuild structures which shouldn't be there in the first place?

Oh, wait a minute. I live in earthquake central.

Rob from Anchorage

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 03 Sep 04 - 04:34 PM

And it's not just public funds - all my friends have insurance (I rent). Those that sustained damage will be covered by insurance, except for the deductible. After Andrew, the insurance cos. changed the way they insure - now, your deductible is 2 - 5% of the VALUE of the home. You own a $200,000 home and have a 2% ded. - you pay $4,000. Also - the deductible comes into play for each different instance of damage. For example if Charley ripped apart your roof, you have to pay the deductible. If Frances then trashes your poarch, you pay the deductible again. And FEMA does not cover the expense of most deductibles, so no one I know will get Federal Assitance for repairing their homes.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:31 AM

As a native Floridian I've often thought that some areas, particularly barrier islands, should be "build at your own risk" zones. Fifty years ago nobody built anything but inexpensive, expendable cottages on the beach. Nowadays the typical single-family beachfront home is a multimillion-dollar extravaganza worthy of inclusion in "Architectural Digest". And when that valuable home gets blown away (and please note that I said when not if because it will happen eventually) the rest of us, through higher insurance rates or higher taxes, get to foot the bill for replacing it. I'm not saying that no one should be allowed to build on the beachfront, but if they had to do it at their own risk there'd be a lot more beachfront still around for the rest of us to enjoy.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Amos
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 10:36 AM

Gee, BC,

I can surf on Xmas day -- which is remarkable, even miraculous, since on all other days I don't know how to surf! And hurricanes haven't been around here for as long as I can remember.

A little earthquake once in a while, is all!

A-in-San-Diego

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:37 AM

I grew up in San Bernardino - lived within 1 mile of the San Andreas fault. I'll take the hurricanes any day over an earthquake.

Besides, on Christmas Day, is your surf temp in the low 70s? I can surf without a wetsuit if the air temp is fairly warm.


The first "feeder" band just went through orlando. My wind gauge clocked a gust of 45mph. The eye of Frances has not come on shore (est. at 2 Sunday morning and will likely come on shore 125 miles south-east of Orlando.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 11:43 AM

If you were in Australia, Blackcatter, you could most definitely surf on Christmas Day - a lot of us do. It's midsummer here then.

Typical Christmas Day at chez JennyO is a barbeque with friends under the big shady tree - steaks or whatever you fancy sizzling, prawns, salad, plenty of coldies, a w(h)ine or two, and a session. Tempted??

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:36 PM

Sure am.

I'll have to learn how to surf bigger wave, though. I'm used to the 3-4 feet surf these days.

Gotta look into emmigration issues. Canada is still the leader, but I don't like cold. But if my friends move there, so will I.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Amos
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:53 PM

JennyO,

I like that sorta Xmas!!

A

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: SINSULL
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 12:57 PM

Groan...cell phone call from my niece. She couldn't handle the shelter and went home. Her building is circa 1960 and the police went door to door showing residents the safest place to be. She'll be in a 3'x3' closet. No electricity. A Handicapped sign just hit her front door - it had been cemented in place. She has a life raft at the ready and the police showed her and her neighbors (all elderly) how to get to the roof if they have to. They also marked the street to show that their are people in the building. Great!

On the light side - she did her hair and put on make-up so that she'll look good on the AM news. She keeps saying "Never again". She may move to Maine after all. I wish she was not alone through this.
Stay safe, people.
SINS

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 01:02 PM

So when are ya comin' Amos?

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 02:18 PM

Frances has spped moving as of the 2ppm update. Center of the eye is 80 miles off of West Palm Beach. Winds at 110 mph. The eye is getting a bit stronger and is 75 miles across. It should strengthen a bit before coming on shore. because it is near the gulf stream and is getting nice and warm.

yeesh.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Obie
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 04:12 PM

As I watch CNN broadcast from Florida they show live downed power lines sparking all around. As a former utility worker I wonder why the main transmission switches were not opened before the storm hit?
This simple action would improve safety and actually reduce damage like blown transformers and arc burned lines and also appliance damage to homes. It was known that the storm was comming and when it would hit so this is not rocket science. I find it strange indeed that this was not done.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 04 Sep 04 - 05:41 PM

Probably because no one here can stand living without A/C, TV and internet.

Besides we like the "green lightning" of transformers blowing.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Liz the Squeak
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 04:53 AM

Sounds like one helluva ride down there! I tried looking up the satelite pictures but there seems to be a problem with one of the transmitters... either that or someone has decided that what you can't see, you won't fret over!

Stay safe all of you.

LTS

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Paul G.
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 12:52 PM

Steady wind at only about 20 mph with gusts to about 45 here in Jacksonville -- about 15 mph higher at Jacksonville Beach. Can't believe how fortunate we have been compared to our brethren to the south. My daughter and son-in-law about 90 miles south of here (just south of Crescent City) lost power at 1:00 am, but other than that are doing fine. We're expecting the wind and rain to increase a bit here through the day, but nothing like what we're seeing elsewhere. A few tree branches down in the back yard is all the damage so far. Two of my band-mates live within a few miles of Melbourne. Hope they will have homes to return to. Hopefully Ivan will visit Cuba, and leave us the heck alone.

pg

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: artbrooks
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 03:41 PM

I heard from my parents in Pensacola (actually Navarre, at the eastern end of the inner of the 2 barrier islands) this morning. They are packing up and going to a friend's about 100 miles west of Biloxi, Mississippi for the next few days...the reports show the storm moving across Florida with a good chance of hitting them from the east. The forcast is for HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 10 INCHES.

The outer island, where Pensacola Beach and Navarre Beach are, was badly hit by a hurricane several years ago. A number of the beach homes were badly damaged or simply washed away...so they are being replaced by high-rise condos. Go figure.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 04:47 PM

The rain hit here very hard about ten minutes ago. Lots of wind and the power is iffy...

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Paul G.
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 06:29 PM

Wind speeds up quite a bit now -- constant at 40, gusts to 60. 40% of Jacksonville is without power now (400,000 folks), and they're finally opening shelters. As we're in the northeast quadrant of the storm, we're told to expect the same treatment until near dawn tomorrow. Watch yourselves up in the panhandle tomorrow!

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Charley Noble
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 08:38 PM

Watching CNN and saw horrific damage at one east coast marina, with one yatch after another piled on top of each other. Someone else was describing how his 6000 pound Hummer was almost lifted off a causway by the wind.

Hang in there, Floridians!

Nice and peaceful here in Maine.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 11:06 PM

We're still waiting our turn over here on the western tip of the state.

By the time it's all over, this storm will undoubtedly have set some kind of record for how much of Florida it has affected. Almost 100% of the state will have experienced at least tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. A single hurricane just isn't supposed to impact Miami, Jacksonville, Pensacola and all points in between!

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 11:38 PM

Meanwhile, while you guys in Florida have been facing Frances, we in Sydney had a series of hailstorms yesterday here Nice to see the weather getting shared around a bit.

It's supposed to be spring now. I can tell you, my little lettuces are not very happy!

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: SINSULL
Date: 05 Sep 04 - 11:43 PM

And California has more fires.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Obie
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 09:04 AM

It has been a dozen or more years since I have visited Florida's central Atlantic coast. My memory is one of great contrasts. Extreme wealth on the coastline and deep poverty a stone's throw inland. The TV shows destruction of marinas and and beach areas, but these are mostly wealthy people who can afford to have costly insurance coverage. Unless things have changed the greatest loss may be among the poorer folks who have little protection. Except for any loss of life my thoughts are more with them when I think in terms of property damage. A humble shack may be a far greater loss than any mansion.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: catspaw49
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 10:05 AM

I have been thinking of you all and reading along here. Like many others too, I have been watching the coverage. My best thoughts are with you all.

BTW, did anyone else see the thing on CBS of the family who stayed in their home with their new generator which provided them power when everywhere else had none? They were watching TV, doing video games, eating cheeseburgers.....everything totally normal except that there was a hurricane outside. They said they had put their faith in God to get them through. Kinda' looked to me like they might have placed their faith in Honda.................

Spaw

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Paul G.
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:28 AM

My daughter, Jessica and her husband are inland due west of Daytona in a town call Pierson, Florida. The only industry in the area is fern growing, mostly very poor immigrant farm laborers in the area. Jess and Ben have a small, though sturdy cinder block house. We haven't heard from them and can't raise them by cell phone, but assume they're okay. I'll probably try to drive down there tomorrow taking the back roads. Obie is dead on about the poorer folks who live in old frame dwellings inland -- they certainly weren't spared by Frances. The interstate (95) is backed up southbound from Jacksonville to Daytona as folks from the south try to get home. They are blocking utility crews, and there is no gas being pumped == so the mess is only getting worse.

When you're in the middle of this kind of mess, it's easy to become distracted from the hailstorms, fires, by-pass surgeries, and general mayhem going on around the rest of the planet. No one is immune from it, and Frances has been a less than gentle reminder to us about that. Best to all as we each try to rse above it!

pg

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:42 AM

She's heading this way now (Alabama), but I understand she's been downgraded to a tropical storm. We're expecting heavy rains with winds possibly gusting to over 50 mph. There are flash flood alerts for this area, but we're up on a hill, so that won't be a problem for us. We'll be ok if the winds don't get too bad.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:49 AM

P.S. Here's hoping we don't get any trees falling on us.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:55 AM

Be careful driving tomorrow Paul. A lot of roads I have seen on the news have been damaged.

I'm wondering about some others we haven't heard from - Blackcatter, harpgirl, who said her power was iffy, and those of you with rels living there. Any more news?

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 12:25 PM

Power is back on here. The rain is steady but light and there are a lot of leaves and branches down. It doesn't seem like a bad storm at this point. My mom still has no water in PB county and is using bathtub water for everything. There are gasoline shortages in south florida and lots of damage but I don't have cable TV so I probably no less than most folks.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 12:55 PM

Glad to hear you're all right hg.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: SINSULL
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 01:47 PM

Kelly's OK too - a little water in her apartment and a lot of wind damage outside but all is well.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:17 PM

I was snoozing in the den and heard a loud noise...a forty foot live oak just uprooted from my neighbor's yard and smashed through my roof...now I have to get up in the attic and stem the leaks and call the insurance company. I had a feeling I was gonna get clobbered...

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:49 PM

Hello all,

Lost power for 18 hours. I got lucky this time (7 days for Charley)

Everything else is good. Just couldn't believe how long it lasted. We got the first outer band of wind and rain Saturday afternoon and the last one should be here in about 30 minutes. About a 48 hour storm.

Unfortunately, even though I have not food for them, every ant in the neighborhood has decided it's safer in my place than anywhere else.

Now for the stats from my wind station. Sustained winds were as high as 68mph The highest gust I recorded was 94mph. But the main part of the storm crossed 100 miles south of me. Charley had sustained winds of 90mph and gusts as hih as 112mph.

By the way - Sewall's Point was the official point of landfall of the eye. My sister lives on Sewall's Point. She's fine in her $1.2 million hovel.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 02:59 PM

Everything's a mess at my house...limbs everywhere, smashed roof, forty foot live oak crushed my fig tree as it hit the roof. The roof is beginning to cave in on the edge...I'm a basketcase! Help!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 03:03 PM

I'm so sorry Harpgirl. 3 of my friends lost their homes in Charley. Talk to your neighbors to see what they can do.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 03:07 PM

Get out of there, harpgirl! Go someplace safe till the winds die down. Maybe your neighbor will take you in.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Janie
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 07:49 PM

Thinking of you Harpgirl, and hoping you are safe.

We still don't have any word of my aunt,uncle and cousins. We assume they are safe. Uncle William & Aunt Cat, and one of my cousins all live in Satellite Beach/Indian Harbour. Both families evacuated to another cousin's house on higher ground in Melbourne proper. Guess we just have to wait for power or cell towers to go back up. My aunt and uncle in West Palm evacuated to cousins in Atlanta. The Sarasota contingent are, of course, all fine. So far, it seems, property damage, (thankfully) will be the issue in Florida, and not loss of life. Did my heart good to see so many people have the sense to obey the evacuation orders.

The potential flooding as Frances moves up through the southeast is probably a bigger threat to life. Poor southern West Virginia has been devastated repeatedly by floods the last few years (thanks to surface mining.) And it looks like the storm will track straight up through the southern Appalachians in Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia. The power of flash floods in all those hollows is mindboggling.

Annie & I spent the weekend in Williamsburg, Va, and were getting some rain and wind from the East, which was associated with Frances. The power and scope of the forces of nature is as awesome it is awful.

Makes ya' feel kinda puny, doesn't it?

Janie

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 09:58 PM

Damn, Harpy! Now I feel guilty. You got your house broke and we haven't had more than a stiff breeze over here.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 10:20 PM

harpy..if there is ANY way to get a roll of plastic sheeting/tarp and some tacks...hardware store...Home Depot, etc....cover holes until work can be done

so damn sorry...

(the 2nd year we lived here, a huge Oak tree came down in a storm, and just missed the bedroom where my wife was asleep...we were so lucky, and ever since then I have kept a roll of plastic around....I use it for lots of things, and when it gets low, I get more..)

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 06 Sep 04 - 11:33 PM

Well, at least it sounds like everyone is safe. Harpgirl, I hope your roof problem is now getting sorted - it sounds like it is, from what you said in the other thread Florida Mudcatters - how are you?! The sort of thing that happened to you is probably going to become more and more common with each storm. I can see an awful lot of trees in the future just pulling out of the ground because of the continual soaking from rain.

I don't like the sound of Ivan. If it does head for you guys in a few days, maybe you should seriously consider moving out of its way this time. In the end, personal safety is the most important thing!

Jenny

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 12:32 AM

At this point it looks as if Ivan will pass beneath Florida. I never like to say anything is good news exect for a hurricane going out to the middle of the ocean and disappearing. If it misses Florida, all that means is that it's probably Texas, Louisiana or Mexico's problem.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 12:06 PM

It's just rain here where we are now. The winds died down some time last night. It definitely looks like a big storm has passed through here, but there's no damage to any of our stuff. Here's hoping Ivan blows himself out in the middle of the ocean and never makes landfall.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: GUEST,Blackcatter
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 04:00 PM

Nearly everyone is leaving their plywood up on their homes/businesses to wait and see what Ivan will do.

Still about 20% of Orange Co (Orlando) is without power, better than Charley, but considering how little damage this time, still pretty bad.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: robomatic
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 07:26 PM

Remember to look out for downed power lines. If the power is out in your house, or likely to go out, turn off delicate stuff like computers, turn off heavy power users, such as air conditioners, so that when power is restored the initial load is lighter, less of a chance for a fuse or a recloser to blow.

When in the presence of a downed line, get away and call it in!

Maintain a battery capable radio and invest in some of those LED powered book lights. They go on for hours and hours.

There are some wind up radios and flashlights out there. They are overpriced and not too efficient, but they do work after a fashion.
If your car is in shape, you have a portable generator. You can buy gear to plug into the power terminals (used to be cigarette lighter) inside your car. More of a convenience for radios, music equipment than anything that needs power.

In Alaska some folks buy a disconnect device that goes with the power service point of their house. The idea is, if you're going to use a portable power generator to provide live home current on your house wiring, it is vitally important that you disconnect your house from the regular service, otherwise, you back-feed to the main system and you can electrocute a lineman.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: catspaw49
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 09:20 PM

Harpy? Hey old friend, we're still thinking of you and hoping for the best.

Frances is passing through here now and we have had very solid and steady rain for 24 hours with flood watches, etc. I have an inch or so in the basement but things are supposed to stop by noon tomorrow. This is an amazing storm. It is still pretty well formed and stioll almost a massive as ever. The fact that it still carries so much moisture after all this time is impressive. We have had other hurricanes blow what little was left across us this far north, but I can think of noe anything nearly as strong as this one.

Hope we hear from Harpy soon!

Spaw

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 09:58 PM

Sorry about your soggy bottom, Pat....Mary Lou Orthey lives on the Peace River in Punta Gorda and she just put her house up for sale to return to the NE and then the storm hit. She got demolished! And the storm surge on the Peace River came over her sea wall!

The worrying was worse than the damage I experienced. I have a lot of clean up now because I forgot to tell the tree cutter to haul off the brush (actually, I was being cheap) and I've got the top of a forty foot live oak to haul to the curb and cut in four foot lengths.

Then I have about a cord of wood to split from the trunk unless I put another add in the paper for free wood. But the last time I had every weirdo, wacko, and NYCFTTS reject in my yard loading wood for a week! That was creepy! I'm going to keep it all to myself this time. But at the rate I burn it, I'll have firewood for another five years!

I'm afraid Ivan will hit us full force in about five days...Then I'll just have to check into the NYCFTTS

stay tuned....abbynormal

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 10:13 PM

Here comes Ivan!Ivan's projected path

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Janie
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 11:06 PM

We still have not had word from our Melbourne relatives. Anybody know how much damage occurred in Melbourne and on Satellite Beach/Indian Harbor?

Janie

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: JennyO
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 12:07 AM

This updated diagram of Ivan's latest projected path looks even worse.

I have a bad feeling about Ivan too. If I was living in Florida and it continued to look like it was coming in my direction, I would get out - and soon, while there are still planes leaving and petrol to be bought. Ivan is much stronger than Frances - Geraldo and all those stupid brave young girl reporters won't be leaning into THIS wind - they'd get blown away!

Jenny

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: catspaw49
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 12:44 AM

We have your old room at the NYCFTTS all ready and waiting for you Harpy! Skiff has been doing a good job keeping the place running and the bedpans changed. Uh.....well, not exactly........er,uh........well......ya'see what happened is that awhile back he went a little nutso on the bedpan thing and started putting them all in a sterilizer. That was okay but he went wrong when he started using them fresh from the sterilizer resulting in severe burns to the ass on a number of patients including one guy who was so traumatized by th entire thing that he hasn't been able to shit since....and that was 6 weeks ago. Btw, his room is next to yours.

Spaw

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: wysiwyg
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 05:29 PM

I guess ole gal Frances got rode hard and put away wet-- she's in my basement now and I can't get her out. At least the yard is relatively dry--- now, at least. Cuz that's where she was a couple of hours ago till she slithered in, or was it slithering up from the rock bed. I already knew that's why we have dirt basements here, but it's the first time in 10 years it's been more than a little muddy slime down there and the appliances are all up on cement slabs.

She's in my pine-paneled guestroom too, but that's the roof's fault. Last night I had a just-before-sleep chance to show Hardi how to knock down wet acoustic tiles before they come bonking down on you when you ain't lookin'. Cuz Ah hate it when THAT happens!

Please, if you see Ivan before you do, tell him the guest rooms are already taken and he should head elsewhere to lay his wet head.

~S~

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: SINSULL
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 06:29 PM

Frances is dripping into my sunroom through the roof I had repaired last year. Better than having a tree fall on me I guess.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Bill D
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 06:33 PM

this has been a wet, wet, wet year around here (Washington DC), too...2 dehumidifiers running constantly in the 'basement', which is a finished lower level....

The grass and weeds grow faster than we can trim and whack and mow, and there is flooding in nearby areas weekly. I can barely imagine what it must be like to get the first taste of each of these storms.

I did read that various expensive flood control measures have kept this from becoming an even worse disaster in Florida...

keep your chins up, Floridians! literally..

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 10:56 PM

I did read that various expensive flood control measures have kept this from becoming an even worse disaster in Florida..

Well the water managment districts have been draining all the small lakes into the larger ones and on south or north. They started this prior to Frances, but that water only moves so fast. The St. Johns River which flows north through east central Florida to Jacksonville, moves very slowly and is in fact, still rising, 4 days after Frances. It is expected to crest tomorrow night (Friday), but since it is actually just a giant flood plain ans quite swampy in places, has nuberous shallow lakes tied to it, it is not going to recede very quickly. With Ivan heading this way, the problem will only be exacerbated.

I have friends who live in a mobile home 2+ miles from the usual banks of the St. Johns near Christmas, FL. The water is currently over 2 feet high around their home. Their cars are flooded, and their geese, guinea fowl, and chickens are all dead.

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: harpgirl
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 11:13 PM

Oh great! I see the current projected path is straight at Tallahassee. I'm beginning to think it is Mother Nature punishing the Bushes for their misdeeds....At least my roof is ready for another clobbering. BillD can't you use some live oak???? or what about turkey fig tree wood?

I'm sorry about your friends, blackcatter. And I'm sorry you're currently out of a job...

Subject: RE: BS: Facing Frances
From: Blackcatter
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 11:48 PM

such is life.

And Bill - I have some camphor wood for you too! Ever seen a camphor tree with a trunk over 3 1/2 feet in diameter?