BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College

Subject: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 04:58 PM

Zogby: "If all the [battleground] states -- even those within the margin of error -- were to go to the current leading candidates, and the other 34 states were to go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Bush would get 231 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry would get 307."

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 04:59 PM

Oops, that's dated yesterday, Sept 7, 2004

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: DougR
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 05:49 PM

Nerd: the dog would have caught the rabbit IF he hadn't stopped to pee.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 05:51 PM

Nerd,

You are as a breath of fresh air on a drab, dreary day.

DouR,

Now, THAT'S gotta hurt.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: emilyrain
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 07:07 PM

thanks for that, nerd.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: GUEST,GROK
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 10:07 PM

I would hate to see this thread drift into obscurity.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Bobert
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 10:39 PM

You crazy optomists!!!

Think Diebold and get back to reality...

It's four more years of the same ol' ***rulers***...

Get over it...

Hey, these folks is nastier than the Dems and therefore deserve whatever they can steal... Hey, this is America, gol dangit. We steal just about everything we have so why should dumb elections be any different???

Answer me that one..

Plus, the system is completely broken and America is on its way down, down, down.

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 11:42 PM

I think it would be great if Kerry should lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote. It would dispell all rumors that Democrats have a monopoly on whining.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 12:28 AM

It would dispell all rumors that Democrats have a monopoly on whining.

No it wouldn't. The Republicans haven't stpped whining since Clinton was first elected and they started all those rumours.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Ebbie
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 01:18 AM

Kerry losing the popular vote but with the electoral college deep in his pocket? That would be a delicious bit of irony. What could the Repubs do??

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Wolfgang
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 07:01 AM

I dearly hope that does not happen (a win against the majority of votes), for I couldn't stand another four years of reading a well known fact once per week.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Ebbie
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 01:04 AM

(snappppppp!) How are your elections these days, Wolfgang?

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Wolfgang
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 07:19 AM

Invariably a big slide to the right, Ebbie.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Ebbie
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 01:33 PM

That brings up the question: Why is it that people see things in such a very different light? Almost everyone one meets is a 'good guy'- what makes our views so different??

The same things cause us pain, the same things bring us pleasure, we all want our children to do well, we are all proud of our family's past or secretive and defensive about it, we all recognize that life is difficult, with, as they say, the exams coming before the lessons are given... Why are our views so terribly different?

Right. Left. Moderate. Extreme. Where do these viess come from? Why?

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: PoppaGator
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 02:09 PM

Ebbie,

One fundamental difference:

Some people still believe in the ancient tribal instinct that "we" are intrinsically good people who couldn't possibly do wrong, justified in slaughtering "them," including men women and children.

Others recognize that all of us earthlings are in the same leaky boat and are responsible for each other.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: GUEST,Clint Keller
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 03:20 PM

That is excellent, Poppagator.

clint

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Ebbie
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 04:53 PM

"...ancient tribal instinct that "we" are intrinsically good people who couldn't possibly do wrong, justified in slaughtering "them," including men women and children." Poppagator

But wouldn't one think that such people would be a minute minority? How is it that their presence looms so large?

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Bill D
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 06:17 PM

Ebbie...I am not sure you even realize just how basic and important your question is! I have been pondering that for many years, and can see a number of approaches to answering it. Some are cultural/sociological, but some are, I suspect, related to the average amount of testosterone in the leaders of various groups. (We breed dogs for their attitude, etc...a Pit Bull has a 'different' opinion about how aggressive one should be in defending territory than a Cocker Spaniel)

You can also ask "why are some humans superstitious?" and get close to answers about why we have different opinions when confronted with the same data. Some people simply have different attitudes about what passes for 'truth'

To stick an old pun in here: You can lead a horticulture, but you can't make her think

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Peace
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 10:26 PM

Ebbie,

I think it might have something to do with the Golden Rule. S/he who has the gold makes the rules. We have stories that are given spin. The rich and powerful control the mass media, and they pander to their rich and powerful friends. It has ever been thus. It's just that it's gettin' thuser much more, recently. It's past the point of media giving us the news and leaving it at that. Now we are given TRUTH instead.

I haven't watched a TV in years. Every now and then I see a news broadcast. I am reminded of a line from a Tom Clancy book (can't remember which one and I'll have to paraphrase the line): "You'd never see Edward R Murrow wearing mnakeup." That was a reference to the 'types' that present the news today. Talkin' heads with great hairdos and designer clothes. And now, we pause for a commercial break.

What the hell kinda news agency caters to Washington? What the hell kinda newspaper allows itself to be censored?

I wonder what ever happened to the Woodwards and Bernsteins of the news profession? And why is it that when I say the word 'profession' as it is connected to media do I feel compelled to block thoughts of the oldest profession? And why do I feel that there is something more honourable about the girl or guy who panders to the physical lusts of strangers on the street compared to the 'news professionals' who seem to pander to the whims of powerful people in a House near the Potomac?

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Peace
Date: 11 Sep 04 - 12:58 PM

Gotta pop this to the top for my buddy, DougR.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: DougR
Date: 11 Sep 04 - 07:08 PM

I am under the impression that the winner of all the Electoral College votes is not known until all votes have been cast.

So, Nerd, are you saying that the next two weeks campaigning by the candidates is a waste of time and money?

Ebbie: you pose a good question. I don't know why two people can often see the same thing, and come away with completely different impressions of what they saw. I think the "King" in the musical said it best: it's a puzzelment.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 11 Sep 04 - 07:15 PM

That's just dumb, DougR. Polls say "this is what would happen if the vote were held today." You know that. But the subject line is of limited length. Hence I could not have entiteld the thread:

BS: New Poll: Kerry Would Win Electoral College if Vote Were Held Today

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: pdq
Date: 11 Sep 04 - 11:17 PM

Nerd - not sure about that. Can you give a more definitive source for your numbers?

I looked for a summary of "battleground states" polling and came up with the following.

At least the specific states are mentioned. 15 in all.

New Jersey and Pennsylvania are in play this year???


Florida                                         Tossup
New Mexico                                Tossup
Wisconsin                                   Kerry, Slight
Iowa                                            Kerry, Slight
Oregon                                 Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire                 Kerry, Slight
Minnesota                           Kerry, Lean
Ohio                                      Kerry, Lean
Nevada                                 Bush, Lean
Pennsylvania                Kerry, Slight
Michigan                              Tossup
Arkansas                              Bush, Slight
Arizona                                 Bush, Slight
West Virginia                       Bush, Lean
New Jersey                          Kerry, Slight

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 12:51 AM

Zogby is a definitive source, pdq. Remember, this was 5 days ago. He was using only his own polls, not summaries of polling from several sources.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Sorcha
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 01:03 AM

I'll just be glad when the bloody elction is OVER and we know/suspect what might be coming next. SICK SICK SICK of all this crap. At least Oola Oyster laid a pearl after she was sick. (children's book reference...look it up)

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: beardedbruce
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 07:07 AM

Nerd,

"Zogby is a definitive source"

As mentioned in another thread, each poll selects the results it wants by the selection of those polled.

They are ALL definitive- but are any of them valid?

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Amos
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 10:06 AM

Ebbie:

The mechanisms of mass-think which lie behind the "looming so large" including instinctual automatic copying and re-stimulation of old pain as a basis for present thinking. Thus, when Cheny says we will be attacked by terrorists if we vote the wrong way, even though it is analytically a ridiculous statement with no merit to it, it does stir into play two mechanisms: people get stirred up on their old losses and pains, whatever the thought of danger brings up for them, with all the confusion and insanity inherent in those memories; and second, people start copying each others' reactions or fears or pictures of chaos instead of understanding the communications involved. This starts chains of mass reaction which intersect and reinforce each other.

Wolfowitz, Rove and Co. are distinctly aware of this sort of machinery in the public mind, and play to it at every opportunity. That's why the administration puts out blaring but illogical statements -- it isn't an effort to communicate but to steer a stampede of re-stimulated negative emotions, massively copied as though with mirrors, and illogical reaction. If they tell scarey lies with enough certainty they will steer the herd their way.

It is despicable, but it is politics. It has worked for every successful dictator. Government through fear and buzzword.

A

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 12:30 PM

You're quite right about that, bb. I am not saying "definitive" in the sense that it MUST be right. I was just pointing out that I HAD given the exact source of my data.

That said, if you read what Zogby has to say about the breakdown of who was polled, you will find that it is not done that way to gerrymander the results. Zogby uses the breakdown he does (38 % registered Democrat, 33 % registered Republican, and the rest independent) because that's the breakdown of people who voted in the last election. Other organizations change this around, in theory because they believe from previous polls that the breakdown of voters in the coming election will be different. Are they trying to play with the results? It's possible.

If you think about it, though, the independent pollsters like Zogby really have no vested interest in misreporting. Sure, there is a vague possibility that they could themselves affect the outcome of an election. But if you weigh against that all the years it takes them to build up a reputation, it's a mighty big risk. They'll start trying to affect the election rather than accurately predict it, their accuracy will go down, and pretty soon their reputation will go with it. I think that's why Zogby simply uses the breakdown of voters in the last election: it's the most transparent method.

Other polls being run by, say, CNN, Time magazine, etc. MAY be more suspect. After all, they did not build up a reputation primarily as pollsters, and their reputation is less dependent on their performance in that area.

Oh, and there's this: of all the current pollsters, Zogby has most accurately predicted the outcome of recent elections.

Just something to think about....

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: beardedbruce
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 12:50 PM

Your last point is the most significant, and the best.

Past performance is the best predictor of future action.


As for the selection of voters, that was the nation-wide distribution- but the poll pertains to the swing states. The actual ratios of registered voters that voted in each of those states should have been used, to be accurate.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 12:54 PM

Yes, the figures I gave you were for the national poll. That was where Zogby held his discussion of methodology.

I assume he uses the same methodology in each state poll as well, but he does not put up on his site 50 discussions of methodology.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: DougR
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 01:58 PM

Nerd: There you go again, making personal attacks. Does that make you feel better?

I guess it depends on what the definition of "if" is. "If" certainly is a an important ingredient in Zogby's statement, isn't it?

Speculating on the final winner of the Electoral College so early in the game seems a waste of time to me.

It does not take a careful reading of the title of this thread to assume that the Electoral Votes have already been tallied, and your hero is the victor.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Peace
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 03:43 PM

"Past performance is the best predictor of future action."

This is the perfect argument why NOT to vote for Bush. Thanks, bb.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: beardedbruce
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 03:52 PM

And Kerry, who would be indicted by that international court for his actions in Vietnam?

IMO, the US is safer with Bush- at least when we launch cruise missles we are TRYING to hit something, unlike Clinton.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Peace
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 04:12 PM

The thing Clinton was launching was NOT a cruise missile, despite anything Monica said to the contrary. IMO, of course.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: beardedbruce
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 04:18 PM

I guess that aspirin factory just fell apart on it's own...

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: GUEST,brucie
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 04:56 PM

Ask the intelligence agencies. That's what they are paid for.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: GUEST,Frank
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 06:22 PM

Do you really feel safe after the information we are getting by Bob Graham and others on what went wrong during the events preceding 911? The Presidential Daily Briefing to Bush spelled it out and he ignored it. While reading "My Pet Goat", the FAA, CIA and FBI were not involved although the last two had dossiers on the highjackers. This is a good reason to assume that Kerry would be more competent because he isn't like Cheney and Bush who during 911 were out to save their own skins. He would have rallied the three important agencies immediately.
    Regarding the lobbing of missiles, Clinton was able to avert an attack on Los Angeles International Airport. He didn't get the Cole but he probably saved the American people more than given credit for. His foray into Afghanistan was thwarted by congress. (A Republican one).

   
Frank

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: beardedbruce
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 06:27 PM

safer, not safe....

I don't think a "kindler, gentler war" on terrorism will be very effective.


Lots was wrong before 9/11- some still is. Kerry would have taken a poll, seen that the US was angry, and dropped a few nukes in various places to show how strong he was. Or else gone to the UN and asked them to make the mean men stop bothering us...

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: Nerd
Date: 12 Sep 04 - 08:43 PM

I wasn't making a personal attack, DougR. For the record, I do NOT think YOU are dumb. But we all say some dumb things now and then, and you've launched a couple of doozies at me in the last few days, including the one on this thread and the one where you blame CBS for not knowing the future! When someone says something I think is dumb, I sometimes say "that's dumb."

But I don't think I've EVER said "you're dumb" in that situation.

As I said, it's not a question of how important "if" is. All of us here who are not morons or did not just crawl out from under a rock know that a "poll" does not determine the outcome of an election to be helld in two months. Thus the "if" could be assumed by all the non-moron non-rock people here.

Your bringing it up was thus just an attempt to heckle me. And it was a pretty dumb attempt.

YOU, however, are not dumb.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Kerry Wins Electoral College
From: GUEST,Claymore
Date: 13 Sep 04 - 07:20 PM

Washington Times, Monday 9/13: Bush has 269 electorial votes, Kerry 211 with 58 votes in the tossup states (Iowa 7, Minn. 10, New Mexico 5, Penn.21, West Va.5, and Wisconsin 10)

I can't speak to the other states, but West Va is going Bush with it's 5 electorial votes -game, set, and match.

I know it's just another poll, but more and more of them are showing Bush the winner. There are very few of us on the MudCat, but we are not alone...