BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 10:36 AM

Very, very unlikely indeed. So unlikely as to be not worth even considering the possibility for one nano-second. Starmer, and Labour, seem to want an end to the conflict and divisiveness we’ve been subjected to in our politics since 2015, why would they rake the Brex-Shit up now?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 10:32 AM

I see in my news this morning that Labor won "in a landslide" but with lower voter turnout. (So it would have been even bigger if more people voted, one hopes). What an elegant concession speech Sunak gave. We hope to return to a world of civil political behavior soon. (But wait - Farage was elected to Parliament - perhaps I write too soon. What a boor.)

The New York Times has been particularly busy raining on everyone's parade lately. An opinion piece this morning says Britain’s Election Is Not the Centrist Triumph It Appears to Be but tucked inside is this:

The Conservatives deserved the rebuke they got. They were in power for 14 years, with little to show for it other than a damaging exit from the European Union. After winning by a landslide in 2019, the party burned through three prime ministers, lurching from the feckless populism of Boris Johnson to the reckless 49-day libertarianism of Liz Truss to the uninspiring technocracy of Rishi Sunak.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 09:08 AM

what about another referendum

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 08:32 AM

I agree that what the Conservatives decide to to will be critical. The do need to remember that they cannot 'outFarage Farage.' If they decide to adopt his stance, I think even more will leak from them to Reform.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 08:24 AM

There is a lot for them to do but Starmer, for all I have said, does seem efficient in achieving his goals. Too far to the right for my tastes but let us hope this does centre the political spectrum somewhat.

There has been a lot of talk about Reform taking a huge share of the vote but, in terms of seats, the LibDems have fared far better and the Greens have equalled Farage's neo-nazis. I think the Tories will now be in a quandry. Do they move further right and try to out xenophobe Reform or do they pull back to the centre and aim for the LibDem losses?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 04:55 AM

Just got up after watching until 5am.

Although I am pleased at the size of Labour's win, I think a comment by Nadhim Zahawi that the results are built on sand has a lot of wisdom. Come the next election, the anti-Conservative factor will be much reduced, and the voting will be based on what has been achieved. Inevitably, because of the finance restrictions and where we are starting from, it is going to be a long slog, and so Labour will also lose those who had unrealistic ideas of what could be chosen. Then, inevitable, as lot of them seats are on comparatively slim majorities.

Added to which we have a Conservative party that needs to sort out how it will respond to Reform, who will be gleeful at these results. Labour, meanwhile, will I hope realise that you cannot outbid Farage on immigration: cut it to a tenth of what is it and stop all the boats and Farage will still be beating the "Too many immigrants" drum. So somehow our other Labour needs to draw the teeth of the immigration issue and get it out of the conversation while at least Reform and possibly Conservatives will be trying to keep it prominent. Not to mention that Farage in his acceptance speech said he was coming for Labour.

I am very hopeful of what can be achieved over the next few months, and as I said the key will be people feeling progress is being made, but how both Labour and the Conservatives react to the size of the Reform vote will be critical.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 04:40 AM

From the BBC

"The BBC is predicting that turnout will be 60% across the UK as a whole. This will be the second lowest turnout ever in a UK election since 1885, with only 2001 being lower at 59%

Vote share

Labour has around 34% share of the vote across the UK and the Conservatives 24%.

While the Liberal Democrats are expected to have the third highest number of seats, it is Reform who are currently in third place by share of the vote.

However, Reform have found it difficult to convert votes into seats, and the party has only four MPs returned so far, including party leader Nigel Farage in Clacton."

++

The turnout is disappointing. No doubt some of that might be down to people thinking Labour were going to win anyway, so there was no need to vote. I just wish the turnout was higher. I don't think it is healthy for up to 40% of people not to bother voting.

Based on these results I don't think Labour will be thinking too much about changing the voting system.

Labour have the chance to make a difference to the country. It will not be easy. I always live in hope that things will get better.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 04:28 AM

Very sad, although not entirely surprised, that Reform UK have succeeded here in the Backwoods, getting the obnoxious Tice into first place in the Brexit Capital of Britain - Boston and Skegness. My friends in Boston are appalled.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 04:21 AM

Kent Online

"Labour have taken the coastal constituency of Dover and Deal with a majority of over 7,000 votes.

Mike Tapp received 18,914 votes seeing off the Reform challenge in second with 11,355 while the Conservatives came in third with 10,370."

"Voter turnout has been confirmed as 63%, down from 66.4% at the last election in 2019."

"In Kent, Labour have won 11 seats, the Conservatives have kept hold of six and the Lib Dems have gained one.

It means the Tories have lost in 10 seats in the county they previously held - and even came third in Dover, with Reform finishing second.

At the 2019 general election, Conservative Natalie Elphicke was elected with a majority of more than 12,000.

However, Ms Elphicke shocked the political world by defecting to the Labour Party in May, just weeks before the election was called, despite being considered firmly on the right of the Tory party."

++

I guess my vote made all the difference.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 04:11 AM

No Tory presence at all in Wales now.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 03:23 AM

Labour have won the election.
The other factor, not mentioned by BWM that has affected labour, is the pro palestine candidates.Leicester south is an example

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 02:49 AM

Looking at the numbers of votes cast by party, it’s pretty clear that it’s less a case of Labour ‘winning’ the election, more a case of the Tories losing. The Tories have been committing a form of slow Hara-kiri since 2016 and, although some former Tory voters switched to Labour, they appear to have hæmorrhaged votes to the Lib-Dems and the loathsome Reform UK party,

Labour have done the easy part of the trick by achieving a majority. The difficult part remains to be performed over the next five, possibly ten, years - reversing the huge damage done over the past fourteen years to the UK, and to the ordinary man and woman in the street, by the Party of Greed and Selfishness.

IMHO, of course, and YMMV.

@DMcG - Mrs Backwoodsperson and I have had a postal vote for years now, we applied one year when we were on holiday at election time, and we’ve never seen a reason to revert to in-person voting - postal voting is so convenient. If on-line voting ever becomes a ‘thing’ (doubtful, I know) we’ll be amongst the first to register for it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 02:46 AM

I dunno about BWM Doug but I went postal when they brought in the need for photo ID. I do have ID but disagreed with the principle.

Generally feeling good about the result. Apart from the loathsome Farage. The honourable member for the 18th century (Rees-Mogg) losing almost makes up for that.

Hopefully we can get some honest politics now, if not massive changes in how the country is run

My lad got nearly 1% of the vote as an independent and did what he intended :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 02:08 AM

LABOUR LOOK LIKE APPROX 419 SEATS

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 01:59 AM

Corbyn elected.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Doug Chadwick
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 08:35 PM

On my morning walk this morning (~3 miles) I passed two polling stations. I voted almost two weeks ago by post.

I realise that some people who have mobility problems, other commitments on the day, or may be away from home, would need a postal vote. As none of these seem to apply to you, BWM, I would be interested to know why you chose a postal vote over voting in person.

I quite like being part of the event on the day. I suppose it makes me feel a bit more involved. I have only had a postal vote once, for the Brexit referendum, but that was because I was away on holiday on the day.

DC

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 05:13 PM

It's what they did with their votes. I read that quite a few people voted "for" as a lark - thinking it couldn't possibly pass. The equivalence to that nonsense is voting for third party candidates here. Anyone who votes for the Kennedy name (no one in the Kennedy family takes him seriously, they've known about his problems with blending truth and fiction much of his life) is throwing out a vote that can actually make a difference.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 03:26 PM

"Good luck getting the results you want. Too bad too many people didn't take that Brexit vote seriously or it might not have passed. Lesson learned, eh?"

72.21% of registered voters turned out to vote. That was a higher percentage than your last presidential election.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 03:00 PM

Where are our resident Tories BTW? I am genuinely interested in what they have to say. Are there any positive selling points or is it all just "we are better than them"?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:14 PM

Thanks Stilly. Nice to see interest from across the pond and spot on about the Brexit vote.

I'll stop up till after the exit polls but won't stay till silly o'clock. Even though my eldest lad is a candidate!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 01:48 PM

Several states here, including my original home state, have voting by mail and that produces a high response. This state where I live now is run by a GOP governor who wants to discourage turnout so I have to write to the county registrar every year to request that all ballots be sent to me. Only those who meet certain criteria can vote by mail (over 65 being one.) But I write, I get the ballots, and I vote. The nearest polling place is about 6 blocks from my house. There used to be a lot more, the reduction is again the result of the GOP constriction on voting ease.

Good luck getting the results you want. Too bad too many people didn't take that Brexit vote seriously or it might not have passed. Lesson learned, eh?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 01:18 PM

On my morning walk this morning (~3 miles) I passed two polling stations. I voted almost two weeks ago by post.

We’ve received two communications from our long-time-sitting Tory MP and, like Dave’s experience, no word on Tory policies, just propaganda about how awful it would be under a Labour government, and how much we would have to pay in extra taxes. What a poile o’ shoite!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 12:12 PM

^^^ OPEN INVITATION ***

At the election before last, Steve and I spent a long time commentating on the overnight results as they came in. I am out this evening until maybe 11:30pm, and then expect to be up watching until maybe 4 or 5.

If anyone wants to chat, we can do it here, unless someone has a better recommendation for a chat system we should use instead. If so, put the names or links here.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 12:04 PM

The polling station used to be in a school half a mile away. In recent years they moved it to the Railway Club which is a mile away.

It was a pleasant day and I enjoyed the walk there and then back into town to spend a few hours in the pub.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:55 AM

I agree a MILE is quite a way to walk...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:54 AM

I agree a walk is quite a way to walk for many people, but it is nothing much in a car, hence my 'assuming you can drive'.

Even so, we don't get queues to compare with some places in the US

Again, a quick web search suggests that on average each polling station deals with 1.300-ish voters. Allowing for some remote places with a lot fewer electors, one dealing with 4,000 must be fairly rare.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:48 AM

Mrs G got an email from our Conservative MP, Julian Smith, today. She has written to him about various topics so she will be on his mailing list. Talk about desperate. Not one single mention of any manifesto policies. Not one single positive thing to say about hos owm party. Just scare stories about how bad things will be if Labour get in. Is this what politics has become?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:43 AM

I did have to walk a mile to my polling station. When I got there I had to request a seat while I read through the 11 names on the ballot paper.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:36 AM

Yep I did. My 20 year old photo id was accepted without comment.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:36 AM

I have to say I don't understand why there are so few places you can vote in US elections. For most of the UK there is a polling station within a few minutes of your house. A quick search suggests there are 35,500 of them in the UK.   You have to be getting to very remote areas before there isn't a polling station moderately close (assuming you can drive.)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:30 AM

We are still have several hours left when we could, SRS, but I expect most people on the thread have.

I can tell you I did, my wife did, next door neighbours on both sides have, and someone who came to help in the gardening did, as her daughter (who is 18 and was very excited as this was her first.)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:26 AM

I hope everyone got out to vote!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 09:47 AM

Article in The Guardian

Association of Electoral Administrators calls for new timeline for postal votes and powers to investigate reports of disfranchisement

Postal vote delays: UK election organisers say rules should be changed

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 03:10 AM

It seems a bit early to be predicting the next election rather than today's, but in some ways that is my greater concern. Labour will have to ensure over the next term that people *feel^ better off and that is not GDP, or NHS queue statistics or inflation rates or immigration numbers. All those play into the feeling, but it is the feeling that matters in the end. If people enter the next election feeling hopeful, Labour will be granted the second term they have said throughout they will need.

If not, I think we could be in "a plague on both your houses" territory and one of the smaller parties this time will get it in.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 01:27 AM

i hope Corbyn gets elected

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 12:33 PM

They just want to able to say that it was The Sun wot won it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 12:25 PM

I think most people would rather not have the support of the Sun anyway!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 11:47 AM

I have a strong feeling in my water that they might be trying to make Labour voters think it’s a done deal and not bother going to the polls. I wouldn’t put anything past that rag.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 11:40 AM

I see that The Sun has come out in favour of Labour, if somewhat reluctantly.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:46 AM

It is just not the Tory media reporting concerns about problems with some postal votes. Some councils in Scotland have had some issues, not helped by their school holidays starting which might also increase demand.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:21 AM

My postal voting pack arrived over a week ago, and my voting slip went back the next day. No ‘post problem’ here.

This is easily the worst GE Campaign I remember in my lifetime. From Labour, airy-fairy policy announcements (although the lack of detail may well be deliberate, to prevent a Tory hijack), and from the Tories, zero policies, just lie upon lie upon lie about Labour.

I wanted to vote Green but, in my constituency, there’s no chance that the Green candidate will win, and the most important thing AFAIC is to get rid of our safe-seat, long-sitting Tory MP.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:01 AM

It will be the Tory media trying trumpolitics. They were robbed because of a postal vote swindle.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 05:28 AM

I can't say I fully understand why there is a fuss about postal votes today. Given there must be few people who expect mail to be collected and delivered reliably within a day or two. The fuss should have been a week ago, shouldn't it?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: G-Force
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 04:12 AM

Politician speaks the truth, shock, horror!!!

A tory cabinet minister reckons Labour are going to win.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 04:07 AM

Bugger! Try again…

”Well if it was a choice between a Tory party or a Reform group/business, I know which I would prefer.”

Me too, RD, but the problem is that Braverman and others are working their butts off to move the Tory Party ever-closer to Reform UK’s position in almost everything. She and they seem to be laying the blame for the predicted Labour victory in the GE on the Tories being too ‘centrist’, not ‘Right enough’.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 04:06 AM

”Well if it was a choice between a Tory party or a Reform group/business, I know which I would prefer.”

Me too, RD, but the problem is that Braverman and others are working their butts off to move the Tory Party ever-closer to Reform UK’s position in almost everything. She and they seem to be laying the blame for the predicted Labour victory in the GE on the Tories being too ‘centrist’, not ‘Right enough’.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 03:49 AM

the bookies have labour to win over 418 seats at 1 to3 on.
450 to 490 seats 11 to 10

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: The Sandman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 03:41 AM

quote from the Economist Publication
This mega-poll finds that Labour is on track to win 465 of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales, giving it the biggest majority since the second world war. Meanwhile, the ruling Conservative Party, which won 365 seats in 2019, is set to collapse to a mere 76, the fewest in its history.
Since the uk does not have PR it matters little what percent of the vote they get, but ti do think they will get 75 per of the 632 seats, my prediction is between 450 and 470 seats

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Rain Dog
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 02:42 AM

Well if it was a choice between a Tory party or a Reform group/business, I know which I would prefer.

Does anyone here think that Labour will get over 50% of the vote tomorrow? I think there is a slim chance that they might but more than likely they will not.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics - 3
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 02:18 AM

When Suella Braverman publicly throws in the towel, defends Reform UK, and attacks her own party for ‘not being Right-enough’, you know the Tories have had their day.

At this rate, there will be no Tory Party left. Or is that too much to hope for…?