BS: American Presidential race 2024

Subject: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 29 Jun 24 - 08:15 PM

We aren't starting any more Trump threads and we keep it to one UK politics thread at a time now, because it keeps the fighting to a minimum and in a controlled environment. Nasty BS threads are the reason we lost a lot of members over the years, and setting BS threads to members only helped contain that problem.

Clearly the hand-wringing over Biden and Trump as candidates and the recent debate is going to spill over into other threads unless it is contained in ONE PLACE. The urge to bring the presidential debate into the Trump conviction thread has resulted in a lot of deletions already.

Nasty stuff will be deleted. This is a moderated thread. Some of you get out of control, and you know who you are. Keep it civil, and helpful, if possible. There is a lot the world can learn about American politics from how the next four months and one week progress.

A couple of large newspapers have taken it upon themselves to call to Biden to step down, but the debate was not an example of Biden's failing as a president, it is simply an example of how the "Gish Gallop" technique of peppering your debate opponent with so many lies that deciding which to respond to looks like hesitation or inability to answer.

Read the more thoughtful examinations of the debate - reasonable Democrats have moved on and are still firmly behind Biden. Trump would be a disaster for the world and there is no changing candidates at this time. All of the various UK member negative views expressed over the months have been an annoyance to those of us working to get Biden reelected.

This discussion would benefit from links to thoughtful analysis in non-US news sites and forums. There will be links to American sites that offer rational examinations of the race.

Let's start here: many of us are old enough to know about the Pentagon Papers and the outsized role that Bob Woodward has played in analyzing and reporting on American presidential politics. I'll start this thread with a link to an interview with Woodward. As he wisely states, let's look for an answer.

Bob Woodward brands Biden debate performance a ‘political h-bomb’

Watergate reporter and long-time Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward said President Biden’s debate performance was a “political hydrogen bomb” and the public deserves to know what really happened.

Woodward joined MSNBC’s Air Melber on Friday following the debate, where he said the performance was “so bad, so awful” that reporters must be looking for some explanation from his staff.

“I think the answer here is in reporting, in seeking very aggressively, an explanation — what happened here?” Woodward said. “We don’t want it to come out in some book or some memoir in a couple of years or a decade. We’d need to know now.”

Woodward speculated that during preparations ahead of the debate — a likely strategy for the Biden campaign, given it proposed the debate in the first place — that the president got into a “knock down, drag out fight” with his staff.

Either way, the public should know, Woodward argued.

The President appeared on stage with a hoarse voice and a slight cough. He stumbled with answers and at times didn’t finish his sentence. Sources familiar with Biden said he had a cold.

Biden’s debate performance sparked widespread fear among Democrats about his ability to beat former President Trump in the polls this fall. Some even are calling for him to step aside and let someone else attempt to defeat Trump.

Woodward said the calls for Biden to suspend are “inevitable” because of how bad his performance was.

“I sat there and watched it and I could not believe it. I said, not only is this a political hydrogen bomb for him and the Democratic Party, it, you know — what happened? What happened?” he said.

Calls for the president to drop out are not hasty, Woodward said, but more energy should go toward seeking an explanation behind the debate performance.

“Look, let’s step back. If a building blows up in downtown of some city, the story will be what happened and then the story will be how did this happen, why did this happen? And that’s where I’m very, very curious because this was a mega disaster,” Woodward said.

The answer was provided by the historian (and goddess in liberal political circles) Heather Cox Richardson, who posted the night of the debate about what happened DURING the debate.

Tonight was the first debate between President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and by far the most striking thing about the debate was the overwhelming focus among pundits immediately afterward about Biden’s appearance and soft, hoarse voice as he rattled off statistics and events. Virtually unmentioned was the fact that Trump lied and rambled incoherently, ignored questions to say whatever he wanted; refused to acknowledge the events of January 6, 2021; and refused to commit to accepting the result of the 2024 presidential election, finally saying he would accept it only if it met his standards for fairness.

Immediately after the debate, there were calls for Biden to drop out of the race, but aside from the fact that the only time a presidential candidate has ever done that—in 1968—it threw the race into utter confusion and the president’s party lost, Biden needed to demonstrate that his mental capacity is strong in order to push back on the Republicans’ insistence that he is incapable of being president. That, he did, thoroughly. Biden began with a weak start but hit his stride as the evening wore on. Indeed, he covered his bases too thoroughly, listing the many accomplishments of his administration in such a hurry that he was sometimes hard to understand.

In contrast, Trump came out strong but faded and became less coherent over time. His entire performance was either lies or rambling non-sequiturs. He lied so incessantly throughout the evening that it took CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale almost three minutes, speaking quickly, to get through the list.

Trump said that some Democratic states allow people to execute babies after they’re born and that every legal scholar wanted Roe v. Wade overturned—both fantastical lies. He said that the deficit is at its highest level ever and that the U.S. trade deficit is at its highest ever: both of those things happened during his administration. He lied that there were no terrorist attacks during his presidency; there were many. He said that Biden wants to quadruple people’s taxes—this is “pure fiction,” according to Dale—and lied that his tax cuts paid for themselves; they have, in fact, added trillions of dollars to the national debt.

Dale went on: Trump lied that the U.S. has provided more aid to Ukraine than Europe has when it’s the other way around, and he was off by close to $100 billion when he named the amount the U.S. has provided to Ukraine. He was off by millions when he talked about how many migrants have crossed the border under Biden, and falsely claimed that some of Biden’s policies—like funding historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and reducing the price of insulin to $35 a month—were his own accomplishments.

There is no point in going on, because virtually everything he said was a lie. As Jake Lahut of the Daily Beast recorded, he also was all over the map. “On January 6,” Trump said, “we had a great border.” To explain how he would combat opioid addiction, he veered off into talking points about immigration and said his administration “bought the best dog.” He boasted about acing a cognitive test and that he had just recently won two golf club tournaments without mentioning that they were at his own golf courses. “To do that, you have to be quite smart and you have to be able to hit the ball a long way,” he said. “I can do it.”

As Lahut recorded, Trump said this: “Clean water and air. We had it. We had the H2O best numbers ever, and we were using all forms of energy during my 4 years. Best environmental numbers ever, they gave me the statistic [sic.] before I walked on stage actually.”

Trump also directly accused Biden of his own failings and claimed Biden’s own strengths, saying, for example, that Biden, who has enacted the most sweeping legislation of any president since at least Lyndon Johnson, couldn’t get anything done while he, who accomplished only tax cuts, was more effective. He responded to the calling out of his own criminal convictions by saying that Biden “could be a convicted felon,” and falsely stating: “This man is a criminal.” And, repeatedly, Trump called America a “failing nation” and described it as a hellscape.

It went on and on, and that was the point. This was not a debate. It was Trump using a technique that actually has a formal name, the Gish gallop, although I suspect he comes by it naturally. It’s a rhetorical technique in which someone throws out a fast string of lies, non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don’t know where to start grappling with the flood that has just hit them.

It is a form of gaslighting, and it is especially effective on someone with a stutter, as Biden has. It is similar to what Trump did to Biden during a debate in 2020. In that case, though, the lack of muting on the mics left Biden simply saying: “Will you shut up, man?” a comment that resonated with the audience. Giving Biden the enforced space to answer by killing the mic of the person not speaking tonight actually made the technique more effective.

There are ways to combat the Gish gallop—by calling it out for what it is, among other ways—but Biden retreated to trying to give the three pieces of evidence that established his own credentials on the point at hand. His command of those points was notable, but the difference between how he sounded at the debate and how he sounded on stage at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, just an hour afterward suggested that the technique worked on him.

That’s not ideal, but as Monique Pressley put it, “The proof of Biden’s ability to run the country is the fact that he is running it. Successfully. Not a debate performance against a pathological lying sociopath.”

A much bigger deal is what it says that the television media and pundits so completely bought into Trump’s performance. They appear to have accepted Trump’s framing of the event—that he is dominant—so fully that the fact Trump unleashed a flood of lies and non-sequiturs simply didn’t register. And, since the format established that the CNN journalists running the debate did not challenge anything either candidate said, and Dale’s fact-checking spot came long after the debate ended, the takeaway of the event was a focus on Biden’s age rather than on Trump’s inability to tell the truth or form a coherent thought.

At the end of the evening, pundits were calling not for Trump—a man liable for sexual assault and business fraud, convicted of 34 felonies, under three other indictments, who lied pathologically—to step down, but for Biden to step down…because he looked and sounded old. At 81, Biden is indeed old, but that does not distinguish him much from Trump, who is 78 and whose inability to answer a question should raise concerns about his mental acuity.

About the effect of tonight’s events, former Republican operative Stuart Stevens warned: “Don’t day trade politics. It’s a sucker’s game. A guy from Queens out on bail bragged about overturning Roe v. Wade, said in public he didn’t have sex with a porn star, defended tax cuts for billionaires, defended Jan. 6th. and called America the worst country in the world. That guy isn’t going to win this race.”

Trump will clearly have pleased his base tonight, but Stevens is right to urge people to take a longer view. It’s not clear whether Trump or Biden picked up or lost votes; different polls gave the win to each, and it’s far too early to know how that will shake out over time.

Of far more lasting importance than this one night is the clear evidence that stage performance has trumped substance in political coverage in our era. Nine years after Trump launched his first campaign, the media continues to let him call the shots.

Notes:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/all-the-crazy-things-trump-said-you-might-have-missed-in-biden-debate

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/04/trump-biden-presidential-debate-prep-408651

https://archive.is/JNu8D

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-revenge-biden-convicted-felon.html

X:
stuartpstevens/status/1806528635391631485

ddale8/status/1806517477163061469

MoniquePressley/status/1806527221881847898

Discuss.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Sandra in Sydney
Date: 29 Jun 24 - 10:11 PM

from Australia -

Key takeaways from the US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump By North America correspondent Barbara Miller and Basel Hindeleh, Posted Fri 28 Jun 2024 at 2:54pm, updated Fri 28 Jun 2024 at 3:40pm

Joe Biden and Donald Trump get personal in 'game-changing' debate ahead of 2024 election — as it happened Posted Fri 28 Jun 2024 at 9:21am, updated Fri 28 Jun 2024 at 4:01pm
US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump have concluded their debate in Atlanta, Georgia — and pundits were united in their view that it was a bad night for the president. Take a look back at how the debate unfolded — and how America reacted.

Beyond Biden and Trump, American politicians are amongst the oldest in the world. Is that good for democracy?

Presidential Debate: “The Worst in the History of the United States” Dr Adam Bartley is a Fulbright Scholar and resident fellow at the Elliot School for International Affairs, the George Washington University. In addition to this, he is a post-doctoral fellow at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and program manager of the AI Trilateral Experts Group. He is also managing editor for AIIA’s Australian Outlook. Twitter: @AaBartley
Jade Kingston is the Australian Outlook Book Reviews Coordinator. She is a fourth-year student of International Security Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra, minoring in Bahasa Indonesia.
This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 29 Jun 24 - 10:45 PM

I thought I posted this article from ABC (in Oz). It's a good analytical piece by Jade Macmillan.

Could Joe Biden be replaced? Why the president is refusing to give in to his critics

Also I have watched most of the PBS Washington Week With The Atlantic discussion this morning (on SBS TV in Oz) and I'm about to watch the rest of it. The panelists have some good analysis of the debate and its possible consequences.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 29 Jun 24 - 11:31 PM

And thanks Stilly for setting up a new thread specifically about the American Presidential race 2024 and for stating the ground rules for debate so clearly. I have said this to the Mudelfs on previous occasions but I'm saying it again here: I trust your judgement and I will respect your decisions.

The statement about the "Gish Gallop" technique makes a lot of sense to me.

"A couple of large newspapers have taken it upon themselves to call to Biden to step down, but the debate was not an example of Biden's failing as a president, it is simply an example of how the 'Gish Gallop' technique of peppering your debate opponent with so many lies that deciding which to respond to looks like hesitation or inability to answer."

So many lies told by Trump, so many possible responses by Biden but where to start in the short time allocated for each response. It would be like trying to hold back a tsunami.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 05:00 AM

The effect on hesitating voters is what's important, though.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 05:17 AM

World reaction to the debate

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: gillymor
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 07:03 AM

The priority should be defeating Trump, for the good of our nation and the world, and if the best way to make that happen is replacing President Biden on the ticket so be it. His poor performance the other night just reinforces the portrait that Trump's been painting of him as a weak old man and none of the excuses being bandied about for him are going to dispel that image in the minds of some voters who may have thought otherwise before that debate. I like and respect the president and have since he was my senator some 40 years ago, though I thought he wasn't quite liberal enough , and have contributed to his last 2 campaigns but I have real concerns about his ability to win this thing and have sent a snail-mail urging him to do what's best for the country and to comply with whatever the Democratic Party hierarchy decides. There's just too much at stake.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 08:30 AM

I have to agree with Gilly, the top priority must be to defeat Trump and elect a Democrat President. There’s too much at stake for the US and for the whole world, and the DP top-brass need to recognise that and do what’s necessary to bring it about.

I’m an admirer of Pres. Biden, but I’m no longer convinced he continues to have what’s essential to ensure another term. I’m sad about that, but this is the Real World we inhabit and cruel truths have to be faced. What the US does affects not only American citizens, but everyone else in the world and, although I’m not particularly religious, I’m praying the DP in particular, and American voters in general, make the right decisions.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 10:29 AM

One wonky debate under gaslighting circumstances and all of you are ready to throw in the towel. Such sunny-day Democrats! Some newspapers are lobbying for a new candidate - this is too important an issue to have those mouthpieces taking that stand, perhaps testing their own influence despite a possible bad outcome.

Any other time listen to Biden, he's just fine. Always better than Trump, and he's the candidate. Get over it and move on. Time to make sure Trump is a loser - again.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: robomatic
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 02:25 PM

How many people remember Obama's first debate against Mitt Romney? It didn't go very well but he was not 80 years old at the time.

I am appalled (though I should know better) at the reaction to the debate, but it is the immediate reaction to the debate that is a symptom of the television / internet age that accelerates responsiveness to barely more than knee-jerk status.

The New York Times Editorial Board is nothing more than a bunch of kiddies afraid of the teeter-totter.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 03:25 PM

My first thoughts after the debate were that it might be time for Joe Biden to rethink his tilt at a second term, but after his rally performance in Raleigh, North Carolina I can see that he still has what it takes to get the job done.

The look on Biden's face as he watched Trump in the debate, what I saw, well, I think the best word for it was disgust. I think it was Jeffrey Goldberg on PBS Washington Week With The Atlantic who said that one of the factors which may have affected Biden's performance was having to stand in the same room as Trump and interact with him. That would put any right-minded person off their game, in my opinion. Like standing next to a crocodile which could attack at any moment.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 07:18 PM

Dick, your posts were deleted from the Trump CONVICTION thread as irrelevant to that topic. This thread was started as a place for that energy to go, since clearly people were responding to the change of topic. DO NOT SEND ME PMs TO DEFEND YOUR BEHAVIOR OR COMPLAIN ABOUT MODERATION.

Given a weekend, I hope people calm down and get back on track. Biden is the only candidate at this point, and is one the to beat Trump. (If he did step down, Hillary would have to take his place.)

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 07:43 PM

Unfortunately, I think the stakes are too high to put a female candidate into the running because I think there are a lot of voters who would never vote for a woman for President.

I'm sticking to my opinion that Biden can win.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 08:13 PM

I have said this before in one of the Trump discussions, but I think a lot of the political issues in the US would be less troublesome without relying on the presidential system.

Sorry! I try not to disrespect other democracies, but in Australia (and other countries with a democratic system which evolved from the UK system) voters in each electoral area vote for the person s/he feels could best represent their interests and their electorate in parliament. Then whichever political party gains the majority of representatives takes power and the previously chosen leader of that party becomes the Prime Minister, i.e. that leader is chosen by the party prior to the election.

Unfortunately, especially in the Trump and post-Trump era, I can see that the consequences of voting for one person as President can be far-reaching and in Trump's case, extremely scary.

There used to be a big move in Australia to try to convince people to change our political system to a republic and break away from the monarchy. I used to think it might be a good idea, but I now think that there needs to be prior discussion on how to avoid the potential for the cult-of-personality ambushing of the presidential elections.

I think the chances of the US changing the current political system are at about the same level of introducing tight gun control. Nil, nada, zip.

That's all just my opinion so please ignore it if you want.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Charmion
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 09:06 PM

Helen, as a Canadian I agree with you one hundred percent. Sir Winston Churchill once cracked that the Westminster system of parliamentary democracy is the worst system in the world — “except for all the others.” I think he had a point.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 30 Jun 24 - 09:14 PM

Thanks Charmion. :-)

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 01 Jul 24 - 11:04 AM

The Supreme Court just gave Trump a helluva lot of wiggle room - there will still be lower court hearings, but less likely that cases can go forward before the election.

I haven't heard the pundits talk about the Florida documents case or the Georgia interference and false electors case. If they can shake their cases free of this decision can they move forward? The Florida one won't because that judge is his faithful lapdog. Georgia? Willis is still struggling to keep the whole thing viable (the GOP part of her state is fighting against that case.)

I await interpretation by clear and knowledgeable heads.

Now for July 11 - that had nothing to do with official acts, and we hope the judge will give jail time.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 01 Jul 24 - 10:42 PM

We the people - this 23 minutes is important. Vital.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 02 Jul 24 - 09:32 AM

When Biden wins next time let's hope his coattails bring in a robust Democratic House and Senate. Suspend the filibuster on day one. They will then have two years in which to pass the Voting Rights Act, to remedy the Citizens United decision (allowing corporate money into politics because they are "people" with first amendment rights as it stands now). Alito needs to retire and the House needs to impeach Clarence Thomas and pack the court with 2 or 3 reasonable jurists.

Roe v Wade needs to be restored, absolute rights to receive contraception codified. The ability of federal agencies to regulate industry needs to be restored. The cap on Social Security sits at $400,000 of an individual's income - remove the cap and SS will be in much better condition. Apply the "wealth tax" that Warren has proposed for years.

They may have the house and senate for his entire four years, but things can change with the House (in particular) every two years. Backlash in particular. But the big money needs to come out of politics asap.

Fixing the mess the Supreme Court made about presidential powers - that might take a Constitutional amendment. Or another case in which the more reasonable supreme court voids this week's nonsense.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: gillymor
Date: 02 Jul 24 - 01:17 PM

I hope the Biden camp seizes on this SCOTUS ruling as being a pathway for the dictatorship that Trump has longed for. Make it a major issue.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 02 Jul 24 - 05:47 PM

This is becoming the disaster that everyone but those looking through rose coloured glasses have been predicting all along. I understand that this is upsetting to those who are working hard to prevent it but stopping us from saying it will do nothing to help.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Helen
Date: 02 Jul 24 - 06:40 PM

So tell us what your crystal ball predicts, Dave.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 02 Jul 24 - 09:19 PM

You can stop pushing it in people's faces. That would be really nice. We're working on it. Your complaining isn't helping anyone.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Helen
Date: 02 Jul 24 - 09:36 PM

I agree. I was a Union rep in most of my different jobs and the unions and the members usually followed the unofficial motto, "If You Don't Fight You Lose". Sitting back and admitting defeat without taking proactive action is not going to win the fight, and doom-mongering is not helpful for motivating the people who are trying to be proactive.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 02:41 AM

My crystal ball says he is going to win but I sincerely hope that it is wrong.

I am not pushing it in anyone's face or complaining and I am doing as much as I can about it as I can. If it is wrong to voice my fears in the hope that someone will listen then so be it. Sitting in a sycophantic echo chamber does not help much either.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Rain Dog
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 02:47 AM

I did not watch the debate. I have not watched any of the debates here for our forthcoming UK election.

I am not a fan of them at all.

In the real world all politicians will have information in front of them, they will not be relying solely on their memory. They will also be surrounded by advisers.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 03:01 AM

This article is by John Barron who co-hosts the (Oz) ABC show Planet America, and the less formal Planet America Fireside Chat. The show always conveys excellent analysis and balanced views. (By balanced, I mean common sense. They are not big fans of DT.) The whole article is worth reading, in my opinion.

Should the Democrats replace Joe Biden as presidential candidate? History says it's a risky move

The article presents an argument that to replace Joe Biden at this stage could lead to a Democrat loss and he uses some pertinent examples from the past.

"Did history scare off challengers to Biden's nomination?

"In 2020 Biden seemed to imply he would only serve a single four-year term, referring to himself as a "bridge" and a "transitional" president. His decision last year to seek a second term came in the afterglow of a solid 2022 midterm election result where Democrats were boosted by the conservative Supreme Court's overturning of the constitutional right to have an abortion.

"Biden remained convinced that like 2020, he is the best-placed Democrat to defeat Donald Trump.

"But there's another reason no high-profile Democrat challenged Biden. They all knew taking on an incumbent president for their party's nomination is almost certainly doomed to failure, and a failure that can also doom the president they challenge."

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: gillymor
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 04:41 AM

"I am not pushing it in anyone's face or complaining", that seems to be exactly what you're doing, Dave. Not very helpful.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Helen
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 04:49 AM

Dave, what are you doing about it exactly? "and I am doing as much as I can about it as I can".

And yes, the sycophantic echo chamber which Donald Trump has built around himself is a major part of the problem.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:09 AM

I am pointing out at every opportunity what a disaster it will be if he is elected and bringing a bit of reality to this discussion by pointing out that the rest of the world fears that is a distinct possibility. What are you doing, Helen?

Gillymor. How will not pointing out the above views on an obscure minority interest forum help anyone?

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: gillymor
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:19 AM

Dave, I'd rather live my life as a happy warrior than as Chicken Little. I'm all too aware that the absolute worst may happen in November but I don't see the value in agonizing over it.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:53 AM

The sky falling on our heads is not very likely, gilly. Although it may feel like it if the worst does happen :-( This thread has over 700 posts. There is probably no value in most of those either. Other than to get things off people's chests. I am purposely keeping off the election thread at SRS's request but to make sure only certain views are aired smacks of, well, Trumpism!

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: gillymor
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 08:04 AM

I don't see the value in discouraging reasonable people, Dave, some of whom, like myself, may be doing volunteer work for the Democratic Party.
Still, I can't say I disagree with the sentiment expressed in the last sentence of your post at 7:53.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 08:33 AM

I do apologise if I am discouraging anyone. I would see it more as spurring them on. There are enought carrots so I am providing a bit of stick :-D

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: gillymor
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 08:42 AM

Dave, Trump is a big enough dick, uhh, I mean stick.

Subject: RE: Trump CONVICTED - NO new Trump threads part III
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 09:24 AM

Like my Grandad used to tell me - Always say you don't know! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 11:19 AM

Dave, no one asked you to stay off of the election thread. This is where the real messy part belongs, though the Supreme Court has been making things a lot worse lately. The two topics still merit distinct threads (there are developments to discuss on the other one.)

Supporting Biden doesn't mean we're not aware of all of the moving parts of a campaign for the moral high ground of the US. I have always assumed that Biden has something in the playbook to promote Harris to the presidency. We'll just have to see if that happens sooner than later.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 04:56 PM

Dave, how many times have you posted the same or similar comment in the Trump discussions? How many times do you think you need to say the same or similar comment, especially when you do not add any further analysis or information or updates? You've said it already, ad nauseum. Enough is enough in my opinion.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: robomatic
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 05:47 PM

I'm just reminded of a couple of pertinent English observations. One on England which kinda applies to the whole Democratic unierse:


Spike Milligan quoted from the Goon Show:
"Cheer up dear listeners, Old England isn't finished yet!

lt's finished. . .
. . .
. . .

NOW!"

And Oscar Wilde's observation that America was the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 06:26 PM

I dunno, Helen. You tell me!

How many times have you said that you agree with Stilly?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 03 Jul 24 - 07:37 PM

Only when I have agreed with her and when I thought it would add to the conversation, and usually in response to a thoughtful, useful comment.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 01:30 AM

i think Biden might be replaced, in my opinion that is the best way to defeat Trump

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:41 AM

The Biden administration's most important climate action to date was signing the Inflation Reduction Act into law in August 2022, the most comprehensive climate legislation the U.S. has even seen. The law invests hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy, electric vehicles, environmental justice and more.29 Jan 2024"

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:54 AM

As a candidate Trump said he would rescind Obama's Climate Action Plan, cancel U.S. participation in the Paris Climate Agreement, and stop all U.S. payments towards United Nations global warming programs. Many of his first cabinet picks were people with a history of opposition to the agency they were named to head.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Neil D
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 10:15 AM

I can't believe we are at this point in history.
The very knowledge that nearly half the US population supports this Trump creature makes me feel ill. The most profane, dishonest, self-serving, morally bankrupt person to ever hold high office in this country. In the opening post to this thread an historian is quoted about the Gish Gallop, a technique where you pile lie on top of lies until the fact checkers can't keep up. Something similar happens with actions as well. Trump did so many bad things that people tended to forget one thing as we moved onto the next. From sucking up to dictators while kicking democratic leaders in the teeth all the way up to his horrible mishandling of Covid, it was one thing after another after another. Here's an example: Our staunchest allies in mid-eastern conflict have been the Kurds, most recently as proxy fighters in Syria. That is until Trump stabbed them in the back. After one phone call with Turkish president Erdogan Trump not only pulled out US personnel who were providing cover for the Kurds, he also provided intelligence. including satellite images of Kurdish positions. Turkish attacks began soon after. I consider this to be the most heinous betrayal of an ally in our history, an act that brought dishonor on not only our military but the citizenry as well. There was no strategic reason for selling out the Kurds, just Trump crawling into bed with an autocratic leader.
And no one even remembers the incident because the media barely covered it, but mostly because of so much subsequent heinousness.
As bad as that first term was, a second one would be exponentially worse. Just look at his statements and those of his followers. Dictator on Day 1 and firing 50,000 civil servants and replacing them with inexperienced , untrained Trump loyalists. Our government will be in chaos. Hopefully, the EU will be able to keep Ukraine afloat because Trump wil abandon them on instruction of his Putin overlord and ,seeing this, China may be encouraged in its designs on Taiwan.
In an address to the Politburo after the death of Stalin, Kruschev used the term Cult of Personality to describe his iron grasped control of the USSR. Thats what we are seeing with the Republican party in its      total abrogation of integrity, morality and common sense in some twisted loyalty to the Trump beast.
And speaking of integrity, isn't the fact that Trump appointed Supremes can vote to give him immunity from crime the very essence of corruption? I expect to see a substantial slide from our current 26th position the next time the Corruption index is published. And if you think "26th place ain't so bad", then our expectations of our leadership has already denigrated.
I don't care if Biden descends completely into senility, he would still be preferrable to Trump. Hell. a piece of cheap furniture would make a better president than that criminal Donald Trump.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 10:50 AM

"I can't believe we are at this point in history.
The very knowledge that nearly half the US population supports this Trump creature makes me feel ill."

Are they voting for Trump or the Republican party?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 10:52 AM

NeilD,

Those are polls, that are notoriously inaccurate. I can't believe that 50% of this country supports that buffoon.

More importantly, Trump has injured many people who now will have a great cause to vote to be sure that he doesn't get into office, or his state lapdogs either. The women's vote is hugely important, and two more states are set to have abortion rights on their ballots in November.

It is a wait and watch time now, to see how Biden's interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, who was Clinton's Press Secretary and will provide the best gauge of how things are progressing for Biden. He knows the political environment and will have the good questions that test our candidate.

If it was a choice of running out the end of the term and not running again or stepping down, I would want him to step down and put Harris in a place of power now. And get a really good VP; my first choice would be Katie Porter but she and Harris are both from California and the Pres and VP aren't allowed to be from the same state. So look to the Jan. 6 committee for someone smart and up to speed, and might as well bring in disaffected former GOP folks. Try Adam Kinzinger. Liz Cheney is still too conservative for my taste to give her second banana position, but if they chose her, I'd still work for them. The key isn't to take any current House or Senate members who are in seats that need to be held.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Rain Dog
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:06 AM

I heard on the BBC radio that there might be a problem with the election campaign funding if Biden was dropped.

What would happen to Biden’s campaign cash if he drops out? That’s up to Kamala Harris

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 11:21 AM

Not if it stays with Harris. If they chose another candidate, it would be the "changing horses in the middle of the stream" for one thing (without primaries to make the choice, I predict chaos).

Personally, Biden hits most all of the important buttons and he has smart people working for him; as long as there isn't something actually wrong mentally, I'm fine with him staying in office and working on what needs doing, age isn't important.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:24 PM

NeilD & Stilly, you make a lot of good points.

The prospect of Trump being re-elected is dire. Personally, I think that Biden is your best chance of defeating him.

Unfortunately, even though I think Harris would make a great President, I also think that the probability of a lot of the white male voters and a significant chunk of white female voters would think twice about voting for a woman, especially as she is a woman "of colour". It was hard enough getting our first female Prime Minister in Australia, and then she was subjected to gender bias, even by other elected politicians. She achieved a lot, but could have had a more pleasant and more productive experience than she did.

Strategically, I think the best plan is to keep Biden as the candidate, hopefully he gets elected and then if his health or capability declines during the Presidential term he can step down and Harris will take up the role.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:25 PM

Sadly, Stilly, the facts are rarely taken into account. If it is the public's perception that something is wrong then that will stick. Our last Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was torn apart with stories that he was an antisemitic terrorist supporter. The facts did not bear that out but the mud stuck. If Biden is to ride this out he needs to be stronger than Corbyn and ensure that the rumours of his frailty are stamped out. To do that he must hit hard and regularly. In my opinion of course

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:31 PM

Also, with reference to Oz's first and only female PM, Julia Gillard, our democratic system meant that we weren't voting for her specifically as PM. We vote for the local candidate we want and then the political party with the most successful candidates gains the majority in Parliament and the previously nominated leader of that party becomes the PM in the federal elections or the Premier in state elections. We have had a few female state Premiers.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 02:49 PM

We have had 3 female PMs. Sadly they were all disastrous. I fully support the principle of gender equality but only as long as the encumbant is a capable leader. I really don't know enough about Harris to know if she is. Can you enlighten us, Stilly?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 04 Jul 24 - 07:35 PM

I was watching a music video show and the videos were chosen by an Irish-Australian comedian, Jimeoin. One of the videos was Asshole by Denis Leary, which I haven't seen for many, many years and always thought it was very funny.

Now I listen to the lyrics and think it is all about Trump. :-D

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Neil D
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 02:41 AM

I agree that Dems need to stick with Biden at this point. We're too far along in the process to shift gears to a different candidate. Barring a Biden abdication any attempt to move to a new candidate will split the party. A divided Democratic party is about the only path to a Trump victory. We need Unity at least til after the election, then we can go back to bickering. As Will Rogers once stated, "I don't belong to an organized political party...I'm a Democrat."

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 05:09 AM

I agree NeilD. The article I linked to on 03 Jul 24 - 03:01 AM presents the argument that changing the candidate at this late stage would jeopardise the chances of a Democrat victory and increase the chances of Trump getting elected.

I think the prime strategic goal has to be keeping Trump out of the White House. Too much depends on that to take unnecessary risks at this stage.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 08:15 AM

Yesterday the people of the UK voted for moderation in politics. Let us hope that the craze will catch on across the pond. Things went that way in 1964 with The Beatles so, 60 years later, another British export is long overdue :-D

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Rain Dog
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 09:31 AM

"Yesterday the people of the UK voted for moderation in politics."

Seriously?

We have ended up with a party that is too far right for your tastes because a lot of people have voted for a far from moderate party.

A question for the American voters. Do people vote for the candidate or the party in presidential elections?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 10:47 AM

In the US we vote for candidates, but in the US we have the winner-takes-all-votes Electoral College that gives an entire state to the winner in each state, it doesn't let the popular vote stand for the winner. (If there was no electoral college Hillary Clinton would be in her second term right now.)

This was put in place, erroneously, as it turns out, by those founding fathers, back in a day when only white male landowners voted and the small states were afraid of having no power, so every state got two senators, regardless of their population. That has worked against us since forever.

There are 14 states so far (don't quote me, but I think that's the number Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary under Clinton and political activist cites) that have broken with that and the votes are apportioned to the candidates during the electoral college convention (that whole mess on January 6, 2021 was the House accepting the results of the electoral college, where Trump tried to insert his fake electors.)

Some of you who read the Declutter thread may know that last spring I went in for two sleep studies, but they were inconclusive. My days were under-powered, to summarize. No energy, little interest in the usual things. It turns out that my late night work on the computer or reading on screens was the culprit. My own bad habits were washing my eyes and brain with blue light that makes getting to sleep more difficult and having productive sleep almost impossible. I've started turning off the computer a couple of hours before bed - what a change! And at Biden's meeting with Democratic governors this week he told them that he was changing his work habits, not working late into the evening and getting more sleep. I'm willing to bet he had the same problem I was having. It can lead to memory lapses, low energy, and general problems during the day. It is reversible by getting away from the screen and getting better sleep. It is certainly what I have found. It's like flipping a switch, once you back away from the screen, I felt better right away when I started this practice. So too will Biden.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Rain Dog
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 10:56 AM

Thanks for the response.

But my question remains. Would a Democrat voter vote for a Republican candidate and vice versa?

The impression (and it is an impression) is that party lines in the USA are even more extreme than here in the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 11:07 AM

In the primaries you choose which party and choose your favorite candidate, and if there is a runoff you can only vote in the same party, you can't switch over to boost someone on the other ticket. In the general election there are no such restrictions. A "straight ballot" was sometimes an option - at the top you could darken the box for all Democratic or all Republican candidates, but that was taken away in Texas because some of the down-ballot Republican candidates lost when that happened when Biden was elected. (We have a really awful GOP governor right now.)

I use information from the League of Women Voters (a long-established non-partisan voter rights group) that gives each candidate in all local, county, state, and national races a place to fill out their information and state their policies. https://www.vote411.org/. Once upon a time there were publications with all of this information, now you have to go online to find it.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Jul 24 - 11:32 AM

I'll respond to your question in the UK politics thread RD.