BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....

Subject: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:17 PM

The world did not end yesterday.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Amos
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:18 PM

Oh, sure it did, Hawlster. It ends a trillion times a minute. We just keep putting it back madly.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: gnu
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:28 PM

Chongo will post to this thread.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Charmion
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:30 PM

It's snowing in Ottawa -- and it's January.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Rapparee
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:31 PM

Shame McBride will eventually knock up Veronica Rutledge, they will be married, and Ronny will complain forever about the "smallest of things."

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:43 PM

AAAAARGGHHH!!!!!!! What a horrible thought.

Two more things we can be sure of:

Amos will drop in periodically to quibble over whatever I have just said and "improve" upon it... ;-)

Rapparee will drop in periodically to say outrageous things and flex his digital muscles grandly, rather like Paladin squeezing off a couple of quick shots.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Georgiansilver
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:47 PM

If you wake up tomorrow morning you will still be alive.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ebbie
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:48 PM

The love of our dogs.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:52 PM

Good one, Ebbie!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:55 PM

...there will be regular repetitions of redundant, irrelevant 'facts' presented as if no one else had noticed.

my favorite is:"It takes a hell of a big dog to weigh a ton."

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ebbie
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:58 PM

But how many Pekinese would it take to kill a lion? (Dogs, that is. Not ducks.)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:58 PM

10 Catters posted here before me.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 01:59 PM

Not quick enough!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:02 PM

I don't think any number of Pekinese dogs could kill a lion, but I may be wrong...

We should set up a controlled experiment on it and see....if nothing else, it would rid the world of a whole bunch of nasty, snappy little dogs.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST,Patmike
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:02 PM

You can be sure of nothing!
And, you can't even be sure of that!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:03 PM

I'd kill a lion myself for a Peking Duck.....wait,... that's not 100% sure.

I'd lie to a dog for a Peking.... never mind.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:06 PM

If my dog had an ass like yours, I'd shave his ears and make him wear a silk vest and walk sideway....

No, wait.

That's not it.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: John P
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:11 PM

We do not know what we do not know.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:12 PM

The Moon (regardless of what David Niven thinks) is not a balloon.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:16 PM

There will always be a Mudcat thread related somehow to religion.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:19 PM

...the greatest comeback since Lazarus was Jesus.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ebbie
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:42 PM

I once read a rejoinder to the notion that we, ourselves, will not die. He said, Find a picture of yourself at age 20. Now go to the mirror and look at yourself. Do you still disbelieve that you will die?

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 02:50 PM

I not only believe it, Ebbie, I'm looking forward to it in certain respects. Don't get me wrong now! I don't mean I'm depressed or suicidal. No, I'm enjoying life these days. What I mean is, I'm looking forward in certain respects to the great adventure of crossing that unknown line and hopefully seeing what's on the other side of it. Sounds like the ultimate trip to me. I expect wondrous things. And if not, and there's nothing....well, I won't know the difference, will I? So I can't lose. ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: katlaughing
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 03:17 PM

My grandson loves me, as do a few other family members and friends And, I them.:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: jacqui.c
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 03:20 PM

Nice one Kat - same here.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 03:33 PM

Whatever things anyone comes up with, I want evidence.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Georgiansilver
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 03:42 PM

Steve Shaw.... you never want just evidence... you want conclusive proof..... that's something I am 100% sure of!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: gnu
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 03:50 PM

Bill D... "...there will be regular repetitions of redundant, irrelevant 'facts' presented as if no one else had noticed.

my favorite is:"It takes a hell of a big dog to weigh a ton."

Irrelevant? Good sir, it is certainly so. Fact is, even a small dog can weigh a ton eventually.

LH... "I don't think any number of Pekinese dogs could kill a lion, but I may be wrong..."

Again, certainly you are wrong. It is only a matter of how many you can get in the lions throat at one time. Perhaps throw in a wiener dog or two for good measure.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 03:54 PM

Steve Shaw.... you never want just evidence... you want conclusive proof..... that's something I am 100% sure of!

Prove it.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: katlaughing
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 04:08 PM

Steve Shaw, you would doubt THIS SHINING EXAMPLE?!:-) That's love, pure love, looking back at me!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: gnu
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 04:14 PM

Awwww... that's sweet kat.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:05 PM

""If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way."" Bertrand Russell

""There's another way to phrase that and that is that the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. It is basically saying the same thing in a different way. Simply because you do not have evidence that something does exist does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn't exist."" Donald Rumsfeld

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:05 PM

You're all right there kat. There's more than enough evidence in that pic!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:14 PM

Well if Donald Rumsfeld said it it must be OK then.

Bloody Nora, Ed. :-(

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:32 PM

We can be sure that:

When two quotes "on evidence" are offered up on a discussion forum: One a reasoned quote from a renowned philosopher, the other an odd, nonsensical, quote from a politician, the first response will be on the nonsense quote.

I present the evidence, Steve's response to prove the point :)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:40 PM

A 900 pound gorilla CAN occupy a room without the mass media speaking about it or acknowedging its existence at all...if they have decided not to. Or if their attention is on something else. Or if it wouldn't be profitable to their bosses to acknowledge it. Etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Slag
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:42 PM

That Slag will be at variance with most everyone's opinion! BTW Ebbie, love your post re dog's love. Absolutely!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:43 PM

A turd with "the shit kicked out of it" is nothing.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:56 PM

Not so, Ed! It is a space waiting to be filled.

Space is important. Without space, you and I and all the stuff we have wouldn't exist.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:57 PM

" Fact is, even a small dog can weigh a ton eventually.

ummmm... right...and you can help me decide at what weight it officially changes from 'big' to 'small'?

(There was a guy who announced to his friends, "I'm gonna join the circus as a midget." They said, "But...you are 6'3"!"..."Yeah", he said, "I'm gonna be the worlds tallest midget!")

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:58 PM

That's a brilliant marketing idea.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 05:59 PM

I have space, and stuff, so therefore I exist?

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 06:01 PM

One more certainty:

"If two systems are in relative motion with uniform linear velocity it is impossible for observers in either system by observation and measurement of phenomena in the other to learn more about the motion than the fact that there IS relative motion."

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST, topsie
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 06:18 PM

Kat, I looked at a few more of your pics and came to a familiar face - MICCA.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bert
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 06:19 PM

...Space is important. Without space, you and I and all the stuff we have wouldn't exist....

We'd exist LH, but we'd have nowhere to go.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: gnu
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 06:21 PM

Bill D... it depends when the resident engineer tells the trucker to get the dog out of his fuckin truck or bring it on the tare, along with the wife and kids. And, he checks the fuel guage... and...

It dosen't take a big dog to weigh a ton. It takes an engineer to weigh a dog, no matter the size.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 06:43 PM

Perhaps, Bert, but we'd have no way of observing our existence and thereby either confirming or describing it.

Ed, your assertion is enough for me.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 07:52 PM

We can be sure that:

When two quotes "on evidence" are offered up on a discussion forum: One a reasoned quote from a renowned philosopher, the other an odd, nonsensical, quote from a politician, the first response will be on the nonsense quote.

I present the evidence, Steve's response to prove the point :)

Come off it, Ed. You're backing off, something you wouldn't have done had I not responded. Your ludicrous Rumsfeld inclusion would have stood forever. You thought you were being clever. The really clever thing would have been not to tell us it was him (though we might have worked it out anyway).

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: katlaughing
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 08:11 PM

Ta, Steve.

topsie, did you see the hot pink one?:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 08:22 PM

Well, what Rumsfeld said makes perfect sense on the surface of it...but it does not provide any justification for attacking Iraq, that's the problem with Rumsfeld saying it in the context I would assume he's saying it in.

It's true that a lack of evidence for something's existence doesn't necessarily prove it doesn't exist....but neither does it provide any legitimate excuse for behaving as if it did exist.

Now, supposing that ghosts existed (as a phenomenon). It would be hard to provide any evidence for that, other than people's experiential evidence, given that ghosts are presumed not to be a physical phenomenon....meaning they are presumed not to be a liquid, a solid, or a gaseous substance or a biological lifeform...nor are they presumed to be a known form of energy. So how could you prove that they exist, even if you and hundreds of other people personally witnessed them on numerous occasions?

But the lack of physical evidence wouldn'd prove they don't exist either. You can't prove that something doesn't exist. You can only prove that it doesn't exist in a specific identifiable form or a specific time or place, that's all...by demonstrating that it doesn't, strictly under those conditions.

But you can't prove that it doesn't exist in other times or places. You can only make an assumption about it.

The Bush administration allegedly made an assumption that Iraq had WMDs. I say "allegedly", because they may just have been lying about it, and known perfectly well that they were lying...in order to get the public to support their war of choice.

You can't prove that ghosts, the soul or God do not exist. You can only assume so, based on your general attitude toward such things. And that's what people do...while other people assume that ghosts, the soul or God do exist...depending on their attitude toward such things.

Everyone basically believes what they feel like believing. ;-) If they can find some facts to bolster their belief, all the better, but if they can't, they will simply assert their belief regardless...and interpret the available facts as best they can to support it.

And this thread has now been well and truly derailed by morphing into serious discussion. ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: olddude
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 08:25 PM

That sometime in the course of the winter one of my wiener dogs will pee on my floor cause the lazy little sods don't want to go outside in the cold unless you flog them out the door :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Joe_F
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 09:13 PM

1. You were born.
2. Shooting.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Amos
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 09:20 PM

I am, therefore I see.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 10:09 PM

Your wise to stick to the religious posts where, only a half dozen of your cronies reside. :)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Slag
Date: 18 Jan 11 - 11:59 PM

Bill_D, only if angular velocity is involved, otherwise both systems at equal linear velocity would, for all intents and purposes, appear stationary, kinda like all the stuff drawn on a single piece of stationery.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bert
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 01:18 AM

1. There is NO Godess.
2. She is going to come and slap me alongside the head for saying that.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: katlaughing
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:03 AM

Naw, She is all forgiving of such simple beliefs.;->

From my Rog - no dogs make it to First Grade...guinea pigs do, but not dogs. Think about it.:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST,Patsy
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:42 AM

January will come to an end eventually, please!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:57 AM

I don't know why people get so wound up about this proof business. I'm as convinced as can be (yet not certain) that ghosts don't exist. I'll settle for that. It gives me a sort of "working certainty" that, for example, enables me to stay in big, old, creaky houses or walk through pitch-black graveyards on stormy nights without demur. Any evidence I've ever encountered (I don't seek it out) for ghosts has been flimsy, generally speaking someone's say-so or a grainy, indistinct photo that could easily have been faked. Mostly I only see blue tits flying around at a distance, but the other week I had one sitting in my hand, so I'm convinced blue tits really exist. One night in the early 1980s (I lived in Loughton, Essex) I went out just after midnight to get my cat in. I looked up and saw ball lightning, clear as anything. A glowing, fizzing electric-red ball as big as a football, floating slowly above the rooftops, heading for Epping Forest. I watched it for two or three minutes before losing sight of it. There was nobody else out and I didn't have a camera. When I looked it up I found that the existence of ball lightning is controversial. Well, not to me it isn't. Now maybe there's a tiny chance that it was some kind of nautical flare (50 miles inland and behaving in a very un-flarelike manner?) or a firework, or a hallucination (I don't take drugs and I was stone cold sober). So I'm not certain it was ball lightning. I neither can prove nor wish to prove that it was to anyone else, mainly because I can't even prove it to myself, but I'm still very happy about it and I don't keep my sighting a secret for fear of being thought a fool. I absolutely understand why a lot of people wouldn't believe me and I'm in no position to give 'em an argument. I don't think that anyone who thinks I'm deluded is a bigoted fool. I simply haven't satisfied their evidence-requirement threshold, and that's healthy. I like people who set the bar high in that regard. I won't be setting up a Ball Lightning Sect any time soon.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 04:06 AM

Not only do we behave as if we knew more than we do, it's essential to do so to survive. [Assuming we exist, behave etc in the first place]

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 04:19 AM

Huh? How would we get through life if if we didn't assume we existed? What is "existed" anyway?

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 04:20 AM

if if minus one if

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: MGM·Lion
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 04:31 AM

... that we cannot be 100% sure of anything ...

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 05:16 AM

Huh? How would we get through life if if we didn't assume we existed? What is "existed" anyway?

I *knew* that would cause complications. I could have just said "Not only do we behave as if we knew more than we do, it's essential to do so to survive" but someone would have picked up that that contains assumptions about existance.

An example: we drive as if we knew how the other bloke will behave, but we don't really know that. On the other hand, we couldn't drive without crashing unless we made some assumptions about what everyone else will do.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 05:29 AM

Capitalism produces inhumane inequality - http://walkaboutsverse.webs.com/#105.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST, topsie
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 06:02 AM

Kat. Yeah, the hot pink one, and a bit further on there's a nice one of him dozing with the cat.
You can 100% count on Micca.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST,Patsy
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 07:23 AM

Footballers will continue to earn obscene vast amounts of money and disappoint us in most of the cup games, I can't see this changing anytime soon in the future.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Dave MacKenzie
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 08:15 AM

"It takes a hell of a big dog to weigh a ton."

No it doesn't - it just takes a lot of gravity. Now if you want a dog whose mass is one ton......

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 09:00 AM

Gravity, evolution, and yes, the love of our dogs. Possibly the disdain of the cats who own us...

I post, therefore I also am 100% sure that the Internet exists - in what form I have no clue, but the question wasn't what do we *understand* (luckily!).

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Jim Dixon
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 09:32 AM

"A 900 pound gorilla CAN occupy a room without the mass media speaking about it..."

...if they have already mentioned it once, thus making it "old news."

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: katlaughing
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 10:35 AM

Agreed, topsie! (My cat agrees, too.:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: artbrooks
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 10:55 AM

We can be 100% sure that any discussion of American politics will eventually turn to gun control or the immanent dangers of unrestricted immigration by feelthy Messicans.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 11:07 AM

Nothing is certain but debt and taxis.

something like that....

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Donuel
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 11:37 AM

If I buy an electronic device I will be unable to set up, authorize, initiate, remember its password, sync wireless communication, undo what I already tried, succeed in rendering the warrantee void, remove operating system while trying to update, and lose the receipt when I finally give up and return it one day after the expiration date.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 11:48 AM

...that Murphy gave his name to a law.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 12:04 PM

Steve, the word "exist" means to "stand out". In other words, if something can be seen as standing out, apart from whatever is around it (and there might be only space around it...or there might be space plus a variety of other things around it) then it is said to exist.

That covers the physically observable stuff. Then there are non-physical things like thought or emotion. They are also said to exist if they stand out from the other thoughts (or lack of thoughts) or the other emotions (or lack of emotions).

In other words, the moment something becomes noticeable in any way, it is said to exist...because it stands out.

Your story about the ball lightning matches perfectly my own approach to things. I go by direct experience, if I can. If no direct experience has occurred, then I make the best judgement I can on the probability of things, on the basis of what I've heard from other people, read in books, seen in photogrpahs, etc....

I had a couple of experiences like your ball lightning experience, but not with ball lightning...with what appeared to be some sort of unknown vehicles maneuvering in the sky. I think they probably were not "ours" (of Earthly manufacture), but I can't be 100% sure about that. I'm delighted that I got to see them, and I think they were probably alien vehicles of some kind, but again, I can't be 100% sure about that either. What I am sure about is that I saw them, that they were controlled vehicles of some kind, and that they did exist.

And I can't prove it to anyone, but that's okay. Those incidents have not caused me to found a UFO-based sect. ;-)

So we seem to have pretty much the same approach to things.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bert
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:25 PM

We can be 100% sure that if your post repeats that of a previous poster then Bill D will complain.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Uncle_DaveO
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:29 PM

ME: "I don't really know about the existence of anything, except that I am here (whatever 'here' may mean)."

HE: "You know you're there, and you know I'm here with you."

ME: "Well, no, I may just be imagining your and your presence."

HE: "I can fix that! If I ball up my fist and punch it right in your face, you'll know I'm real!"

ME:   "No, but even if I think I only imagine you are real, I'd better imagine I duck, or I'll imagine I have a bloody nose!"

Dave Oesterreich

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST,999
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:29 PM

Rush Limbaugh will say something stupid.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:40 PM

""Arrogance diminishes wisdom and is a weed that grows mostly on a dunghill""
(Arabic proverb)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:42 PM

Nadia Comãneci competed for Romania.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:43 PM

I'm afraid the odds are heavily stacked against your alien ships. They would have to have travelled here at way below the speed of light, taking centuries to get here. That would take technology and resourcefulness that we can only dream about. Well, unless you think they're from Mars. We also, at least for now, have to assume that they must obey the laws of physics. None of this is impossible, of course, but it's hard to see how they could have done it, let alone bothered to do it (a not unimportant consideration). Once again, there's a good deal of evidence that has not been corroborated at best or which has been trashed at worst, and nothing really concrete at all. Like me and my ball lightning you have to work very hard to find alternative and more plausible explanations, which is the best you can do, and only then adopt the Holmesian philosophy regarding the impossible and the improbable. What a pity religion doesn't follow the same path.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:50 PM

""Blaming your faults on your nature does not change the nature of your faults"" (Indian proverb)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:57 PM

Bo Derek appeared in a movie with Dudley Moore.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 02:59 PM

"....then Bill D will complain."

nonsense, Bert.. I could provide 100 counter-examples to THAT one.

Do I 'sometimes' nag folks to read first? yup!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:01 PM

what is maybe 94.031% is that I will respond to obvious exaggerations and gratuitous generalizations and bad logic... **grin**

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Amos
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:02 PM

One thing for absolutely certain is that all cour certainties are less than 100%.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ebbie
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:02 PM

WVerse, I am quite certain that in 1950 I was living in Virginia but I doubt that anyone would be interested in that fact.

capiche?

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:08 PM

...that Ebbie does NOT appreciate my attempts at humour.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: gnu
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:14 PM

... that Spaw will kick your ass again. I am lookin forward to it.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Amos
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:24 PM

Steve:

ALien ships do not travel through ordinary space bound by c. THey jump across the folds, through hyperspace, using probability drives far beyond our capability to understand. The drives work fine most of the time, and usually even 99.81 efficiency is enough to get them where they think they want to go. Every once in a while one will blow a gasket and slip below 98%, sometimes landing the pilot in a totally unexpected piece of space or time, or both, with untoward consequences. The last time this happened the poor bugger ended up being Madame BLavatsky. THe time before that, LEonardo. The time before that, the guy was stranded in a really backwards piece of continuum and ended up writing the new testament, at least the original sections.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:29 PM

I make no assumptions about how highly "the odds are stacked" against them having been alien ships, Steve. Others may make such assumptions, but I don't. It's possible that they were secret vehicles being flown around by the US government, and I've considered that possibility, but have no way of investigating it further. It seems to be the only other one with much likelihood. In any case, I figure they were either one (alien ships) or the other (secret government vehicles). I make no assumptions about where they might have come from if they were alien ships...nor do I assume that our present scientific knowledge of the laws of physics and the possibilities of space travel, etc, is complete. It's never been complete in any previous century...why would it be complete now? ;-) I make no assumptions that faster-than-light travel is impossible either. Why would I? Because a presently accepted and popular scientific theory says so? Ha! As if we already knew it all....!

What we know, Steve, is what we have encountered directly and proven through our own firsthand experience. The rest is theory and speculation or is just plain below or above our radar (meaning we haven't even thought about it yet). What we know is a fingernail shaving, in other words.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 03:55 PM

Fewer humans, born as females, will get prostrate cancer than humans born as males.

That's about as close to 100% as I can get.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 04:09 PM

even fewer will get prostate cancer.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 04:55 PM

I bow prostrate to that:)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 19 Jan 11 - 05:49 PM

(my mother used to say (with full knowledge of the error)

"That just gives me 'nervous prostitution'."

And I worked with a guy once who warned us not to step on a rusty nail, because "you might have to get one of those 'tentative' shots.)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST,Patsy
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 08:05 AM

I had travel shots not long ago so 100% sure that I am protected to to go to any far off land for the next 10 years......if I had the money to go.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 09:08 AM

I figure they were either one (alien ships) or the other (secret government vehicles).

Well, I agree with this, but the next step is to assign (not necessarily numerically) the relative odds for each of these possibilities. Looking at all the evidence, the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of a human explanation of the kind you suggest. Sad but disappointingly true, and I'm not saying there's anything wrong with wild imaginings as long as you recognise them for what they are. Religion does the same thing for the explanation of the universe: picks out what is by far the most implausible explanation, going from the evidence, and fails to recognise its own wild imaginings for what they are. At least you and I cheerfully admit that we can't convince anyone of our respective sightings - lack of evidence being the main culprit, of course. Good luck with your UFO spotting.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 09:52 AM

My friend, when it comes to something like this it doesn't matter what you think the odds are....because we only know as much as we presently know, and we might be lacking in some vital knowledge about the situation, mightn't we? ;-) I mean, how bloody arrogant does one have to be to be so sure that our present scientific theories and beliefs about what is possible regarding space travel, interdimensional travel, and faster-than-light travel are all that will ever need to be said about it?

That would be a form of arrogance, seems to me, rather similar to the arrogance of the religious men who forced Galileo to recant.

That's what you get when people are besotted with their own cleverness and sense of entitlement, and quite sure that they already KNOW "the Truth".

Now....suppose there really were some intergalactic visitors scouting out this planet now and then to keep an eye on us, given the fact that we now have atomic and hydrogen bombs, and are showing disturbing signs of taking ourselves and our weapons off planet? Supposing they came here to take a look and had a fast and practical way to do so, using technology we know nothing about.

Well, if that happened, it would still happen regardless of whether you think the odds agaisnt it happening are 500 trillion to one. ;-D

You see, your estimation of the odds is only based on what you already think you know. You may not know as much as you think you do.

That's why I'm leaving both possibilities open, and I think your idea of the "odds" is a load of tosh. It's wishful thinking on your part, because you don't actually have any idea what the odds are, and neither do I. We are not in a position to know the odds when it comes to this matter.

You see....before I saw those ships, I figured we were all alone here. After I saw them, I figured that the odds we weren't all alone had gone up dramatically. I revised my opinion in the face of firsthand observation. But I still don't know the actual odds, and neither do you. You just have a set of fixed primary assumptions, like the men who forced Galileo to recant.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 09:56 AM

I am 100% sure this is the 100th post!

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: DMcG
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 10:06 AM

The concept of 'odds', being statistical, doesn't really apply to single observations. Derren Browne did an excellent programme on this - 'The System' - where he appeared to show a single observer that repeatedly beat the odds, and better still explained how and why it worked.

Or as Jeff Wayne (?) had it: The chances of anything coming from Mars/Are a million to one./But still they come."

Or, more seriously, why floods with an annual 1 in a 500 chance of happening still do occur, and sometimes only a few years apart.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: InOBU
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 10:10 AM

Folks on this side of the pond will end a sentence with a preposition, such as this thread about which I write ... of?
Lorcan

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 10:37 AM

I was at pains to point out that I wasn't after numerically-stated odds. The point here is that the evidence we have is stacked against your aliens. There has never been any form of communication with aliens, in spite of alleged frequent visits to our planet by UFOs. There is no evidence of any effect "they" have ever had on us. There has never been a single really convincing photo or video of a UFO or an alien. I pointed out the implausibility, according to the laws of physics, of their visiting us. On the other hand, your "spaceships" were perfectly feasible human constructions. We have built airborne craft of all shapes, sizes, colours and materials. Nothing you saw was humanly impossible, or even technically difficult to achieve. Your only evidence ids that they were unexpected and unfamiliar. We have to proceed through this complicated life somehow, and one good ploy is to go, with all appropriate doubts of course, with what are the most likely explanations, for now, for things, given the evidence we currently have. It's only you rattling on about "the truth," not me.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 10:42 AM

The concept of 'odds', being statistical, doesn't really apply to single observations

OK, I was putting two possible explanations side by side in order to assess the relative plausibilities of them. I think my point should have been clear even if you think I misused the word "odds" (which I was at pains to qualify in any case).

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 10:44 AM

There's no rule that says you can't end a sentence with a preposition.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 11:38 AM

"That is the sort of arrant nonsense up with which I will not put."
    Winston Churchill

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 11:40 AM

"Daddy, why did you bring that book I didn't wanta be read to out of up for?"
    small child complaining

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 11:42 AM

I am 100% sure my memory is like flypaper.... it collects lots of stuff, but kinda randomly.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Dave MacKenzie
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 11:49 AM

I am 100% sure that reality is an illusion. "Is it really possible that we are part of a cosmic hologram, projected from the edge of the universe, or that we exist in an infinity of parallel worlds?"

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bill D
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 12:03 PM

"There was a faith healer of Deal,
Who said:"Although pain isn't real,
    When I sit on a pin
    And it punctures my skin,
I dislike what I fancy I feel!"

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 01:49 PM

Steve...

"There has never been any form of communication with aliens, in spite of alleged frequent visits to our planet by UFOs."

Oh, really? ;-) I think there has. It just isn't on your 6 O'Clock News report every day and it's not on the front headline on your newspaper. In other words, it hasn't been made "official" yet by the powers that be. They do not wish to publicize it.

"There is no evidence of any effect "they" have ever had on us."

Says who? That all depends on who you talk to. I gather that you have not seen any such evidence yet? ;-) I doubt that you ever went looking for it either. Where would you be likely to find something if you never bothered to look for it?

"There has never been a single really convincing photo or video of a UFO or an alien."

There most certainly has. Many of them. However, again they are not being officially acknowledged by the powers that be...meaning your mainstream media and your government. Oh, they might pay attention to an incident for a day on the news...but then it's on to the latest bla-bla about American Idol or North Korea or something.

Really, Steve, the willfully blind, deaf, and dumb do not make very effective sources of information. ;-)

"I pointed out the implausibility, according to the laws of physics, of their visiting us."

I don't know if it's implausible or not. That depends on whether we already understand everything there is to understand about physics or anything else. Indians once found it implausible to believe that tall wooden ships with towering masts and sails could come mysteriously out of the endless waters to the East and land on their shores, and men everywhere once found it implausible to believe that a manned and powered machine could fly. The "expert opinions" of those cultures turned out to be dead wrong in time about thoee things, didn't they?

"On the other hand, your "spaceships" were perfectly feasible human constructions."

Agreed. And they may have been just that.

"We have built airborne craft of all shapes, sizes, colours and materials."

Yes....

"Nothing you saw was humanly impossible, or even technically difficult to achieve."

Actually, you're mistaken about that. I saw those craft do things which are presently considered impossible, going by our current knowledge. This, more than anything else, caused me to think they were indeed alien, although it might just be that our scientists have come up with some really amazing stuff that they haven't uttered a peep about to the general public. If so, they are betraying a public trust. Either way...it's a coverup. They're either covering up alien visitations...or they're covering up extraordinary advances in Earth technology that would revolutionize our entire civilization.

"Your only evidence is that they were unexpected and unfamiliar."

Yes. And since then I have acquired a great deal more information from other people who have had similar experiences, and people I feel I have no reason to distrust. Professional pilots are among the witnesses I mention.

"We have to proceed through this complicated life somehow, and one good ploy is to go, with all appropriate doubts of course, with what are the most likely explanations, for now, for things, given the evidence we currently have."

Exactly. That's what I do.

"It's only you rattling on about "the truth," not me."

I am saying what I think is most probable, given what I have witnessed and other information I have consulted since then. So are you, only you seemingly haven't witnessed anything pertaining to the subject under discussion. Therefore, I can't see that you have much to go on, other than conventional thinking. It was conventional thinking that said man would never fly in a powered machine. Conventional thinking is what has stood in the way of every great breakthrough in human understanding ever since man first built a fire and learned to make a spear.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 04:17 PM

I am 100% certain that it is impossible to make half a sandwich. That's not to say it's impossible to have or eat half a sandwich, only that it's impossible to make one. If you ordinarily make a sandwich using two slices of bread and you decide to make one using only one slice of bread folded over, it may be a half-sized sandwich, but it's not half a sandwich. To get half a sandwich, you have to make a whole sandwich and cut it in half.    It's the law.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Little Hawk
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 04:26 PM

Sort of like you can't be half pregnant.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Ed T
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 04:51 PM

""I am 100% sure that reality is an illusion"".

Life is not separate from death. It only looks that way.
(Proverb: Native American Blackfoot)

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: gnu
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 05:13 PM

LH... that might explain some of the posters hereat The Café.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Joe_F
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 06:17 PM

"I", for Mudcat purposes, may be defined as "the person who wrote this". Therefore, "I exist" means "There exists X such that X wrote this", that is, "Somebody wrote this". Your subjective probability for that statement probably rounds off to 100%.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Jan 11 - 07:51 PM

Enjoy your fantasies, LH. I assure you that the wonderfulness of hard reality is just as enjoyable.

Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
From: GUEST,Patsy
Date: 21 Jan 11 - 06:26 AM

Coronation will still be on UK television a hundred years from now but alas without Ken Barlow.