BS: New rules for the coming pandemic

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 13 Feb 20 - 03:32 AM

The healthier and more developed your immune system the more ill you will become if infected. 20 to 50 year olds are more at risk.
The irony is surprising.

That may have been true of the 1918 flu pandemic but so far as is known statistics on corona virus suggest fatalities are concentrateed among the old with pre existing conditions.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233269-how-bad-is-the-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-likely-to-get/

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Manitas_at_home
Date: 13 Feb 20 - 03:09 AM

OTOH, us 'fitness freaks' are more likely to be commuting by foot or bike in the fresh air than being stuck in a metal tube full of coughers and snifflers.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 10:37 PM

The healthier and more developed your immune system the more ill you will become if infected. 20 to 50 year olds are more at risk.
The irony is surprising.

The reason is that like SARs it is the over response of your own immune system that kills you.

The meek weak and feeble will inherit the Earth ;^I

I am not a runner or fitness freak. Those who are, might feel cheated.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 07:17 PM

On that at least we can all agree.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 12:31 PM

@ Mr Red. Thank you for the clarification. It was an aspect that I had not considered. Perhaps disposable gloves would be desirable should the situation deteriorate.

For the pedants:
The past tense of pay attention to is paid attention to.
The third-person singular simple present indicative form of pay attention to is pays attention to.
The present participle of pay attention to is paying attention to.
The past participle of pay attention to is paid attention to.

I was taught all this aged 12 and forgot 90% of it by age 13. Now in the days of keyboard communication I consider myself barely literate.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 12:27 PM

Pfr - ‘payed’ is the archaic form, the modern form is ‘paid’.
‘Payed’ is acceptable for certain nautical uses of the word.

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/paid-payed/

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 12:05 PM

BWM - that one still confuses me.. even when spellcheck is working properly..

..and I was always top of the class in English at school..

It's not like I never payed.. errrmm.. paid attention..
no, I'm sure it's payed..
though paid now looks correct.. dunno though, it could be payed...???

oh bollocks.. it's not like I never listened to teachers explaining the spelling rules...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 10:54 AM

Apologies for my pedantry, but this is the fourth time I’ve seen the past tense of ‘pay’ spelled ‘payed’ on t’Interweb today.

It’s ‘paid’.

Carry on....

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 09:15 AM

Stephen Fry, on QI, who could not tell a lie:

said that the way face masks work, when they work, is to prevent people rubbing their mouths/noses & maybe eyes. After shaking hands &/or opening doors, handrails, loose food etc. It reduces the transference of whatever.

And the BBC prog did advocate the washing of hands more often during a pandemic/scare. A figure of five or more times was quoted.

Another tactic which IS done, is to inoculate key personnel, like medical workers, shop assistance etc. If vaccines have been found/made. The transmission rate, even inoculating key personnel, is probably quicker than the 4 months incubation time of novel vaccines.

Money is another vector for transmission. Indeed one old lady I recorded said her doctor (say in the 20/30s) would be payed by boiling the coins first and only he would remove them from the pan. Clever doctor or common practice in the days before the NHS?
Irene Adey talking of 11 shillings boiled born 1917, she reached 100, about 6 months after the recording.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 08:01 AM

What is the point of wearing a mask when the infection is viral?
An NBC suit would be the only defense.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 06:05 AM

I do not have the imagination to predict how the virus will effect the US election in November. i just know it will have an effect.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 12 Feb 20 - 04:53 AM

the BBC re-broadcast a programme that included a sophisticated smart phone survey, in the way that only the BBC manage to do. Hannah Fry, the Statistics Professor, with a few Cambridge Uni Alumni and loadsa backroom analysis with moving graphics.

It makes for stark viewing, and obviously was shown to remind people in the wake of this coronavirus instance.

CONTAGION! The BBC Four Pandemic

Enjoy...............

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 11 Feb 20 - 12:10 PM

mg I find your new rules valid.

I would add cruise ships to the no go list.

"the mask and GLOVE BOAT is waiting to take you away, the Glove boat.."

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 11 Feb 20 - 09:39 AM

China is an amazingly strange mess of contradictions..
Technology leaders of the brighter future, hampered by stupidest superstitions of the dark past..

If nothing else good comes out of this pandemic,
the Chinese Govt must crack down heavily on endangered wild species trade...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 11 Feb 20 - 09:28 AM

On the BBC today - it’s believed that the coronavirus came from pangolin which was sold on a Chinese market,

Such wonderful irony! The (literal) biters bit.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 09 Feb 20 - 08:08 PM

i have some concerns. i just heard something about morgues and funeral parlors in china...WHAT? if you have an epidemic you don't have the luxury of a funeral parlor. What do they think is going to happen? Do you want bodies decomposing? Do you want people assembling? No. Do what needs to be done and do it immediately and that includes people who died of something else..assume they have been exposed.

I think it is past time in us to start taking universal precautions, under the assumption that sooner or later we will have an epidemic to contend with. Quit shaking hands, especially in church. I never like that. We can bow or something. Spread yourselves out. One thing I see in China videos is they seem to crowd together even when there is space. Probably a cultural thing. I am in Scandi land so we don't tend to cuddle together much. I will research steam cleaning and ultraviolet machines. Not sure they work on viruses. There are essential oils that do work. When you give christmas presents etc...give stuff that people would like to have on hand for various eventualities. If you are near a viral epidemic, wear glasses, or goggles if you can, and protect your ears.

Public transportation is a nightmare. I want to fumigate myself after using it. Insist that new buses and trains not have cloth cushions. How can you clean them? Or people take wipes and clean them themselves with only the mildest soap and water of course. Think about pets on public transportation...

lots to think about. i don't think us will be hit much, but sooner or later we will. we also have to deal with the homeless population. no way to wash, no bathrooms etc. not good. and various epidemics are starting up there.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 09:12 PM

But Bloomberg has a track record

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 09:11 PM

I see Pete as the sharpest cookie in the bunch.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 08:58 PM

I hope I am not repeating myself here. But I am seriously wondering who among the candidates can lead us through a possible epidemic. If it only affects a few thousand people in usa, there will still be shortages, panic, job loss, increased poverty etc. Who in our government can oversee this..get medicine (??), food, bedding etc. to various quarantine places. I can not see elizabeth, bernie. Biden OK if he were younger perhaps. Budd perhaps..at least he has military experience. Tulsi might impress us. Booker, gone but nice guy. How is he with logistics? Who is capable of transporting people, goods, keeping a population from panic, keeping a volatile economy going. I keep forgetting about Yang. Don't know. Bloomberg? Don't know much about him. Does anyone strike you as the person to lead us..not inspire us..but get us the goods we need. Pragmatic, cooperative, commanding. General Honore is only person who comes to mind and he is not running. Someone will emerge. Trump will only save 1% and Pence will save only the presaved.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 02:27 PM

I see you've come here for a battle of the CDC's
"No I came here for an argument"
You didn't pay
"Yes I did"
No you didn't

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 01:45 PM

Donuel: From the CDC website:
The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

For coronavirus
Fatality Rate (CFR)
(WHO early estimate)
2% (?)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 01:18 PM

btw the CDC states the opposite of what Iains suggested.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 01:10 PM

I never expected to laugh out loud over a thread like this.
The true comments are the best punchlines.

[I would switch 'stay on the sunny side' with 'take precautions'
in the panic vs relax post.]

Predicting what may happen, for what ever reason, is secondary to the medical responses. But predict we will and infighting will begin.
It is as inevitable as a cat fight between Pollyana and Pandora, God vs. Lucifer, Voldemort vs Harry or donuel vs steve.

So I propose apologizing in advance should feathers, scales or hair get ruffled.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 12:02 PM

Disclaimer: military historians please note I couldn't be arsed checking WW1 blown to smithereens casualty lists,
so 'most' might be a teeny weeny exaggeration...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 11:57 AM

yeah.. in 1917 most Brits, Yanks, Aussies, Kiwis, Indians, etc, who travelled abroad
went there to get blown to smithereens..

These days most travellers come home...

A far worst potential pandemic threat...!!!

So will I still be joking about it in, say, 2 months from now...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Doug Chadwick
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 11:45 AM

As for bad colds, novel corona virus is only a tiny bit more powerful than the 1917 flu.

What is different is a 2020 version of modern medical care.

What is different is the much higher level of international travel in 2020.

DC

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 07:03 AM

Donuel the CDC suggests 500,000,000 caught the 1918 flu virus and up to 50,000,000 died.
That makes it far more lethal that suggested statistics, so far available, for the coronavirus.
We shall see.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 06:49 AM

PANIC = tremble in fear, act like a coward, take unusual precautions

RELAX = ignore concerns, feel indestructable, stay on the sunny side

I'm for the middle way, however you define it.


As for bad colds, novel corona virus is only a tiny bit more powerful than the 1917 flu.

What is different is a 2020 version of modern medical care.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 07 Feb 20 - 06:18 AM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 11:37 PM

Panic and anxiety more than likely weaken the immune system...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 10:24 PM

good. i vaccilate between calm and panic. i have a trip planned to ireland and spain in one month..layovers in london. just got travel insurance. if epidemic is raging i will cancel trip. if not, i will go and be very careful. i am basically healthy and not prone to catching things. they say lysol works well. i am probably safer in europe than where i live..we are a port to and from china.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: leeneia
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 09:32 PM

I read in my newspaper that for most people, the novel coronavirus causes an illness similar to a bad cold. People who are compromised (you know who you are) may become very ill, but that's true of most illnesses.

I think we can relax about all this.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 08:15 PM

Regarding this small community I warn you for the last time to find a means of getting and filling prescriptions of penicilin, antibiotics or your most basic medicines in advance of 6 weeks from now.

The reason is that many medicines such as penicilin is 95% made in China and soon they will need it for their own pnemonia cases.
I can only speculate that certain fortunate people will still have access to antibiotics. We are not all fortunate. I would reason further that anti virals, although useless and non specific, will be the first to run out.

Secondary infections are occuring and most likely you will only have spent some time for peace of mind.

Remember China has spent decades cornering the drug manufacturing market and they have unfortunately succeeded.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 06:51 AM

I had an hour conversation with my youngest about novel coronavirus.
Bottom line was to trust the CDC even over WHO.
WHO has slightly more political and economic concerns regarding information.
My son is well versed in the subject but needed guidance navigating social media out of China.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 03:46 AM

I only ever used to shake hands with the wife's best friend. These days, it's shaking hands with the unemployed. Same thing.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: robomatic
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 02:07 AM

"Don't Panic" is on the cover of the Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

In BIG FRIENDLY LETTERS.

"DON'T PANIC"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 06 Feb 20 - 01:54 AM

I only shake hands with people I want to shake hands with. And that’s very few indeed.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Feb 20 - 03:38 PM

You are smart, not crazy, to avoid reflexively shaking hands in an area of known outbreak.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Charmion
Date: 05 Feb 20 - 03:25 PM

The rules for the coming pandemic are the same as the rules we should have used in the last one, but didn't.

Wash your hands, with soap, and dry them thoroughly. Do it often.

Stay away from sick people. If you get sick, stay away from healthy people.

If that means you can't go shopping, too damned bad; ask someone else to do it for you and leave the groceries on the porch. Do not ask that nice person in for tea, or hug him/her.

If that means you can't go to work; sorry. I know you need your wages, but your colleagues and customers need their health even more.

Wash your hands -- again.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Feb 20 - 10:20 AM

"When the government tells you 'Do not panic', thats exactly the time to panic"
quote: John Cussak in the movie 2012

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 04 Feb 20 - 09:31 AM

Oh, 100

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 04 Feb 20 - 09:29 AM

"Rules for the coming pandemic"

In the words of Corporal Jones:
Don't Panic!

Excellent first rule.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 04 Feb 20 - 08:59 AM

Oh crumbs Steve, I didn't know that. Maybe the blooming thing will mutate into something non-fatal to humans. (I believe viruses mutate rather frequently)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Feb 20 - 08:48 AM

Unfortunately, it would take several months to develop a vaccine. After that, it has to be cleared for use on humans, and then it has to be bulked up. The timeline is probably at least one year.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 04 Feb 20 - 06:14 AM

The problem with knowing what someone died of when abroad, in tropical climates etc, is getting a proper diagnosis. My husband tells me that so many of his old mates/family members have died in Ivory Coast, and people there always say, "It was malaria". But there are so many possibilities. Diabetes is quite common, dietary deficiencies, typhoid, cholera, food poisoning, anaemia and so on, but the only symptom that they see is the high fever, and they conclude ,"C'était palu.".

We are so lucky in the West that we can be reasonably sure (laboratory tests and skilled doctors) what the illness is. Curing/preventing a virus though, well, let's hope a vaccine is soon forthcoming!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 04 Feb 20 - 05:46 AM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wuhan-coronavirus-looks-increasingly-like-a-pandemic-experts-say/ar-BBZzYIk?ocid=spartandhp
link
It was MERS that was 1 in 3 three fatal after a mutation.
A mask's porous nature compared to the size of a virus is like rice through a tennis racquet.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 03 Feb 20 - 11:19 AM

serious time again..

This has been a sad RIP Andy Gill [guitarist - Gang of 4] weekend..

one of the few 'celebrity' deaths to actually hit home emotionally for me..

A few other mudcatters were also young adults enjoying living the late 70s early 80s Leeds agitpop post punk scene..

Age 64, his death was reported as respiratory problems following an Asian tour at the end of 2019..

No further details available for now...

The obvious first reaction [well.. my mrs ] is to link this to the unfolding pandemic.

Probably coincidence.. but...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 03 Feb 20 - 10:06 AM

Militant bats must have been outraged by a rich white man culturally appropriating
their appearance and mannerisms...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 Feb 20 - 10:02 AM

Ask Batman. He wore a mask.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 03 Feb 20 - 09:41 AM

So how do public health officials get wild bats to wear surgical masks...???