BS: New rules for the coming pandemic

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 01:01 PM

Mr.Red 2 million dead is a walk in the park and a bus trip back compared to 400 million +.

100,000 is still better innit?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 12:48 PM

"Can a moderator please delete the tame idiots ramblings before he destroys yet another thread"
You are the one who chose to introduce refugees as a threat rather than the victims they are destined to be Iain's
I thought in needed nipping in the bud before that sort of thing took hold
Job done, I hope - lets's see
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 12:42 PM

vaccine being fast-track trialed in humans but up to 18 months from production.
It says

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 12:05 PM

2 Million deaths are more than the US deaths of the Civil War plus WWI WWII, plus Viet Nam . Don't forget Spanish 'flu killed 18-20 million (recorded). in 3 waves. I would bet that US + Europe + Australsia (say) would be about 400 million then. Throw in India (& Pakistan) and you get to the 2-3% death rate.

As for conscripting/volunteering van drivers - surely the drivers would do the picking at local supermarkets. Clever ones would know when the lorries arrive and be able to be there when the shelves are stocked. The real problem is bona fides, vetting the volunteers/conscripts when the service is needed yesterday!

PS I walked 5 miles to town (along the pretty canal) and the rain forced a bus trip back. Life in the COVID-19 era is complicated innit?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 12:03 PM

In 2 weeks hourly US employees should get a thousand dollar check from the government.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:47 AM

Those of us in the UK have genuine concerns about Johnson oversimplifying a serious social issue. it is too easy to say 'we should just adapt our lifestyles' but where adapting our lifestyles means that we are putting ourselves at risk by everyday activities like buying food because little has been put into place to help people to make these adaptations I find being accused of idiotic rambling offensive.

I have an online delivery arriving in 15 days, but I am lucky that I have enough food at home to get by in the meantime. If before then I want to get fresh milk or fresh food I have to put myself at risk - and although so far I do not have any symptoms because there is limited access to testing, for all I know I could be putting others at risk.

I am not playing party politics - whatever party is in power, we should be looking towards strong leadership rather than Johnson's populist babbling. We have a role in protecting ourselves and society as best we can. Society, in turn, has a role in protecting us as best it can.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:27 AM

When people are feeling helpless they lash out.
Facing reality is what this is about. That includes when people go a little crazy. Emotions will recover

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:21 AM

plotting the date/positive infections in a simple exel spreadsheet is showing a steady increase in the rate of infection in the UK.   1,950 were confirmed as positive today. 1543 yesterday.
and for those that wish a booking in the argument room, see below
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:18 AM

Nothing is final unless it is willed.
Its going to be tough. You will have to relearn how to queue.
We will have to relearn that how we treat the least of us is important to our health...
etc etc etc but true.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: gillymor
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:16 AM

Rather then delete 2i's last post, and many more to come, no doubt, wouldn't it be easier just to show him the door.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:12 AM

Can a moderator please delete the tame idiots ramblings before he destroys yet another thread

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:09 AM

"I see Verhoftwat is worried that Erdogan has allowed numerous refugees to escape into Europe. Will this include Isis carrying the corona 19 virus?"
Humanity to the fore from the usual quarters, I see
Italy, the worst effected country to date, had 189,243.00, reported refugees in 2018, a 13.14% increase from 2017.
They are forced to live in cramped, unsanitary conditions, often with insufficient food and almost non existent medical care - a breeding ground for illnesses such as this
Perhaps Iains might suggest where he wished then to be sent, o perhaps he welcomes disasters like this as a 'final solution' to the refugee problem
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 09:34 AM

DMcG:
No need to apologise. It's not a problem of your making. Unless your employed in biological warfare ;)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 07:52 AM

There are reports that some of the mobile phone operators in the UK are having connectivity problems and I would imagine we will see similar effects on fixed lines. Moving firms to homeworking and video chats, and lots of people watching steaming videos from home while isolated is a completely different pattern of usage than these systems were designed for. It remains to be seen how well they will cope.

Sorry about that!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 07:37 AM

Controlling the numbers in a shop at one time helps with socials distancing, but how will this be maintained when people are queuing to get in? I can't really imagine people standing two metres apart along their high street. Maybe pre-booked time slots could help except for those who are digitally excluded.

Another issue - with supermarket shelves being stripped bare of non-perishable foods - this is going to put foodbanks in crisis.

It is all very well for Johnson to spout platitudes about what we should be doing as individuals - and I cannot disagree that we all have our role to play in personal responsibility - but I have absolutely nothing about mobilising public services and putting pressure on the private sector to make this possible. The response has to be cross-sectorial, and I am sure that charities are doing their best within their very limited means to help.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 07:22 AM

Lidl Ireland announced that it is prioritising older shoppers at stores nationwide from 9am until 11am every day from tomorrow morning. The initiative will be in place in all 163 stores nationwide until further notice. People will be able to avail of prioritised queuing and additional assistance during this time.
Tesco about to follow.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 07:17 AM

Good points SPB, Grocery stores are as important as they are dangerous.
Please take precutions and weigh the risks

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 07:11 AM

Other social impacts - people being laid off from work and living in private rented housing paying a rent more than the LHA. Unless they have adequate savings the could face eviction, so this is another area which needs primary legislation, or at least universal guaranteed income.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 07:03 AM

"Supermarkets could not have been expected to plan ahead for this sudden increase in demand for home deliveries. Hopefully things should settle down a bit once people have got their stockpile in."

The private sector, particularly the corporations that make billions out of retail have an equal responsibility to individuals and the government. They have the financial means of rapid response if they are prepared to take a dent in their profits/wealth.

The reality is that people who are isolated are effectively being advised not to eat if they don't have social/family networks they can depend on or their networks are also being advised to self isolate.

Sure local authorities can put resources into supporting the infrastructure, but are you personally prepared to make the decision about which individuals should forfeit their social care, or which at risk children should forfeit their protection to pay for this?@ It may have escaped your attention but local authorities have been forced to make sweeping cuts to their budgets over the last 10 years.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:55 AM

Crises has a definition of a course of a disease when a patient either lives or dies.
We are in a real crises

That is where we are NOW

(Depending upon how you behave)! and the risks you take The US will experience as low as 100,000 deaths or as many as 2 MILLION.

2 Million deaths are more than the total US deaths of the Civil War plus WWI WWII, plus Viet Nam .

I can not predict peoples behavior so I err on the side of people being stupid OR not heeding the January warning early enough..

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Rain Dog
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:55 AM

"If the UK government is prepared to make the resources available - maybe requisitioning private hire vans/drivers it can be done."

In theory yes but in practice it probably would not be that easy. The distribution centres are most likely already working near or at capacity. Not so easy to open up more distribution centres in a short space of time.

What would help is people trying to pool their orders. That would make a difference right away. I know that it is not that easy for everyone to do that but it is worth considering.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:46 AM

My poor poor sister has just told me her daughter who lives in Edinburgh is ill and coughing blood. She's only 29, so we're hoping she's strong enough to recover if it's Covid 19.
The girl is self-isolating (she lives alone, and has been 'working from home' for the past week)
Sister is now registered as an ITU-experienced doctor volunteer, and will turn up at Dundee Ninewells Hospital if/when required.
We're so worried, but what can one do?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:44 AM

If the UK government is prepared to make the resources available - maybe requisitioning private hire vans/drivers it can be done.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:44 AM

Crises } has a definition of a course of a disease when a patient either lives or dies.
We are in a real crises

That is where we are NOW

(Depending upon how you behave)! and the risks you take The US will experience as low as 100,000 deaths or as many as 2 MILLION.

2 Million deaths are more than the US deaths of the Civil War plus WWI WWII, plus Viet Nam .

I can not predict peoples behavior so I err on yje side of people being stupid.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Rain Dog
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:39 AM

"emergency legislation to force supermarkets to reduce delivery times to no more than 2 days and waive delivery costs and minimum order sizes."

Seriously? You expect them to buy more vehicles, hire more staff to make even more deliveries than they are doing now?

The sensible suggestion would be for friends and neighbours to pool their order so that one delivery could be made for 2,3 or 4 etc households.

Supermarkets could not have been expected to plan ahead for this sudden increase in demand for home deliveries. Hopefully things should settle down a bit once people have got their stockpile in.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:32 AM

Watched the government advice, and decided to check out internet shopping. 15 days waiting list for delivery slots - with a £4 delivery charge and £40 minimum order size. Absolutely perfect for over 70s who are not used to monthly shopping"!!!!!! In store collection of pre-paid goods are the same.

So how are the government going to either force social distancing in supermarket queues? If vulnerable people have to go to convenience stores instead - how will government force them to price match so people on low incomes can still afford to shop? How do government plan to keep fresh food safe to eat?

There needs to be an immediate investment in home delivery capacity, possibly at least double maybe much more and emergency legislation to force supermarkets to reduce delivery times to no more than 2 days and waive delivery costs and minimum order sizes. For example there is a limit to what I can buy and keep fresh and if I have to spend £40 I need to buy stuff I don't need or be forced to bulk buy.

People on low incomes may be able to do this once or twice, but everyone gets to a stage where all that people need is to replenish stuff that runs out.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:26 AM

France is somehow a very early site. - Ya know, I keep thinking back to the unusual cold I got (as others reported) at Gloucester Cajun Festival where there were several good dancing partners over from France.

We have evolved to see patterns, so maybe I should be looking at the things that don't correlate. But it makes me feel safer to think of the correlations. Do I have immunity? Was I a carrier for a week? The GF was on holiday at the time so I can't use her as a control.

Still, I will walk the 5 miles to town, and avoid the bus. It is a nice enough day. Not dancing, walk will be exercise. I may be some time...........................

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 09:26 PM

Nah, let's leave it to you.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 09:20 PM

here is italy. of course need many more data points. but again it seems traveled to netherlands and dropped down. one strain. other seems to have come from china, over ukraine and not belarus. but somehow malaysia is involved. any (intelligent, educated) thoughts?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 09:06 PM

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_location=Delft,Haarlem,Nieuwendijk,Nootdorp,Rotterdam ( think these towns are in netherlands but I could be wrong..)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:59 PM

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_location=Kirkland,Pierce%20County,Seattle

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_location=Kirkland,Pierce%20County,Seattle

would love for an epidemiologist to look at this and tell me what they see. I have watched the graphic several times. It looks to me like it came from france heading west and from east via china to germany and back again? heading west. Could this be right? It does not appear to have come straight from China. France is somehow a very early site. Also look at maps of Netherlands. Interesting. Also Australia...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:13 PM

check out this if you haven't already. you can sort by location. it keeps looking to me like france was so at the beginning. https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov

it also looks (to me) like italy got it perhaps from france and not directly from china. it is extremely informative if you watch it on a timeline. iran figures apparently not available.   

kirkland is where most of the washington nursing home deaths occurred. that needs to be studied and studied and i am sure the university of washington is on it. the numbers of not just infected (and now many dead) residents are shocking..but what is more shocking is the numbers of staff, who are not even tested yet as far as I know. some hospitals at capacity in Seattle area. which is not the problem..i personally could sleep on a smelly army cot in an ice rink..but ventilators are a problem. Dyson is said to be turning to manufacturing them...or perhaps they were just asked.

A country can not turn loose of its manufacturing ability or its agricultural land or its water. And a country that can not get many many thousands of masks and hospital gowns made quickly, assuming supplies were available, is in serious need of realignment.

I would love to again from statisticians about everything, especially about the nextstrain charts.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: keberoxu
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 06:23 PM

Yeah, Donuel, I get it ...

as in:
where were you when the lights went out ...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 06:09 PM

Expect to see a spike in the number of births in 10 months.

Trump rallies; gee I would hate to see those neo nazis Darwin themselves out of existence. :^]

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: gillymor
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:59 PM

How is Twit going to survive without his redneck love-fest rallies, that is assuming he cancels them.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:58 PM

The role of teachers is to keep kids out of the way so that grown-ups can do stuff untrammelled by brats. Naturally, this philosophy applies just to state schools, not public schools. The latter are there to provide the next generation's ruling class. Ask any Tory politician.

We have a terrible shortage of doctors, nurses and care workers, driven by ten years of Toryism. If any of those workers had to stay home to look after children, the NHS would collapse. There is no wriggle room, either in terms of staff, A&E or hospital beds, for a crisis. And there should be. But Tories don't think that way. They can pay the state-educated doctors to let them jump the queue, so why would they?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mossback
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:58 PM

WASHINGTON March 16, 2020 — Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, is holding up the House-passed coronavirus relief bill and preventing it from being delivered to the Senate for a vote.

He's probably also recommending that poor folks without computers or internet access (see "Cancellation" thread) use their "Obamaphones" to continue their primary, secondary and university level studies during the current shut downs and quarantines or use "public computers" at all of the public places that have been shut down as well.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:53 PM

Today in a bored voice Trump came a little closer to reality when he said "The virus will probably be among us until July-August", then it will be flu season again

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:39 PM

Mossback did not display even a hint of bigotry. Either you knew that, Helen, and were trolling, or you have a lot to learn about the subtleties of expression in our language. Why not have a little word in the shell-like of your friend mg instead? Or did you miss that post of hers?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:38 PM

Like Woody Allen, Mossback is a bigot, but for the left.

In Italy health care workers are exhausted, cremation workers are overheated, the over sexed are horny, bad/no haircuts abound and toothaches are cured via 'Cast Away' means. They only have 2000 reported deaths.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:30 PM

Australian National Folk Festival is cancelled. I just saw it mentioned on the ABC News site.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 04:56 PM

A way for airlines and other travel companies to (just) survive may be to simply allow free changes to flight times, etc., which I know Emirates are about to do as I have just received an email; that way some money comes in/less staff will have to be laid off.

That said, I'd nationalise all airlines and do away with capitalism altogether - replacing it with something like this "Global Regulationism"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 04:23 PM

Nigel - you should know my sense of humour regarding tory motives by now...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 03:55 PM

Funny video! Or maybe not!

Posted by Iains 16 Mar 20 - 08:51 AM

pfr, the Australian government is in two minds (nothing unusual) about shutting schools. One good reason to keep the pupils in school is that otherwise they will be hanging out at the shopping malls infecting the wider population. At least if they are sitting in classrooms with an adult supervising them the contagion might possibly be held back for a while.

Hubby works at a high school as an IT coordinator. I have the same fears about him bringing home the problem. He told me that his school will shut two weeks earlier for the Easter term break, making it a four week shutdown.

Not an easy problem to solve.

Mossback, you are a bigot. Why assume that the people who go to ski resorts are only French or Italian?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 03:31 PM

In my dismayed opinion,
REFUSAL to shut UK schools, keeping them open for up to three weeks until the Easter holiday
is deliberately treating teachers and school staff as expendable..
For a different view, it also continues mixing people (schoolchildren) with those they already mix with, rather than releasing them from those confines and allowing them to mix more widely.
Which is the correct line to take, I don't know. But whichever the government chooses I would not attribute dishonourable motives.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 12:41 PM

Having been warned back in early January we are moderately prepared.
In many ways these are the good ol days with fresh citrus, varied food stores, medicine and entertainment. However health insurance does not allow stocking insulin in a national emergency so next week in this avaricious climate I will have to go on an insulin hunt. I will rely on the kindness of strangers as always.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:23 AM

There is an issue with scofflaws who are out and about. State Troopers have new orders to deal with them. There is alot more homeless than surfers before a hurricane.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:16 AM

MD govenor Hogan has made 5 PM the LAST CALL for all bars and sit down restaurants. Also landlords may not evict anyone for the duration.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:08 AM

actually my graph is still not the right picture. The Gov figures & graphs similarly are listing the totals to date. What is needed for analysis is total suffering at the moment because that demonstrates the chances you will meet someone infectious. Allowing for those that don't show appreciable symptoms, but still infectious, you could double any number. But at a rough try 2000 germ carriers in a population of 66 million is not bad, until you factor in full commuter buses and trains. Hence the work at home advice. I have tried taking into account 14 days infectiousness, but the larger numbers are all in that timeframe, and smaller numbers won't give a good picture either.

My advice, in this context (trust me), is never trust a fart, and don't sit on a loose stool.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 10:50 AM

Or I can make her strip off and swab her self with bleach, and burn her clothes
outside the front door...