BS: New rules for the coming pandemic

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 05:42 PM

A very different, positive view of this pandemic...

LOCKDOWN

Yes there is fear.
Yes there is isolation.
Yes there is panic buying.
Yes there is sickness.
Yes there is even death.

But,

They say that in Wuhan after so many years of noise
You can hear the birds again.

They say that after just a few weeks of quiet
The sky is no longer thick with fumes
But blue and grey and clear.

They say that in the streets of Assisi
People are singing to each other
across the empty squares,
keeping their windows open
so that those who are alone
may hear the sounds of family around them.

They say that a hotel in the West of Ireland
Is offering free meals and delivery to the housebound.

Today a young woman I know
is busy spreading fliers with her number
through the neighbourhood
So that the elders may have someone to call on.

Today Churches, Synagogues, Mosques and Temples
are preparing to welcome
and shelter the homeless, the sick, the weary

All over the world people are slowing down and reflecting
All over the world people are looking at their neighbours in a new way

All over the world people are waking up to a new reality
To how big we really are.
To how little control we really have.
To what really matters.
To Love.

So we pray and we remember that
Yes there is fear.
But there does not have to be hate.

Yes there is isolation.
But there does not have to be loneliness.

Yes there is panic buying.
But there does not have to be meanness.

Yes there is sickness.
But there does not have to be disease of the soul

Yes there is even death.
But there can always be a rebirth of love.

Wake to the choices you make as to how to live now.
Today, breathe.
Listen, behind the factory noises of your panic

The birds are singing again
The sky is clearing,
Spring is coming,
And we are always encompassed by Love.

Open the windows of your soul
And though you may not be able
to touch across the empty square,
Sing.

- written by Fr. Richard Hendrick, OFM
March 13th 2020

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 06:49 PM

I always prefer to go to the original sources sources for my data, As I have said previously the figures are obtained by the government at 0900 and published at 1400 For those that do not like the way the figures are itemised and presented I suggest you take the issue up with Gov UK Public Health. At the base of their web page is the following:

Is this page useful?
Yes this page is useful No this page is not useful
Is there anything wrong with this page?
I always endeavour to post accurate data and unlike some I usually offer links.

The official government figures below clearly show the escalation and the staged government response.and can be correlated with date, numbers infected and deaths. These are raw figures and   the rationale behind the testing regime is in the link below, but inevitably it has an element of hit and miss. Howvever it has captured the basics of the severity and spread. It gives a crude mortality of about 2.5% but that is only of those tested and positive. Acute bed occupancy is quoted as averaging 90%. This leaves little slack for a sudden epidemic. There is a vector of the asymptomatic that can only be modelled with unknown accuracy and they play no part in the crude mortality ststistics, but they pose an obvious danger to those most at risk. ie the70+(like myself) asthmatics, diabetics etc etc.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-initial-investigation-of-possible-cases/investigation-and-initial-clinical-management-of-possible-cases-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-wn-cov-infection#interim-definition-possible-cases
(the above will not link)
Official source   
GOV.UK
Guidance
Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK

Date          + Test    Deaths   Total tests
1                 23            0        
2                 40            0        
3                 51            0        13911
4                 85            0        16574
5                 115          0        17968
6                 161          1        20338
7                 206           2        21460
8                 273           2        22513
9                 319           3        24950
10               373           6        26261
11               456           6        27476
12               590           8        29764
13               798           10        32771
14               1140        21        37746
15               1372        35        40279

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 07:07 PM

It's not that we don't like the way the figures are itemised and presented. It's all very nice. It's that we really don't give a rat's arris for the tedious and repetitive way you're presenting them, as though you were somehow the gubernatorial voice, which we all know you're not. I mean, we can all read the (decent) papers. You're a bit weird, aren't you.   And I have tried to tell you how everything is meaningless bar the death figures. Still, don't let us stop you. Bejaysus, John, I've spoken to him. Pardon my slip! :-) Mea maxima friggin' culpa!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 07:27 PM

Well Steve, some of us don't really give a flying flock what you think. You don't have to read the figures. You don't have to read this thread. You don't have to post. But I guess you need something to whinge about.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 07:41 PM

Oh, hello, Helen! You really haven't a clue as to what's going on in this thread, or about ultra-right-wing Iains, have you? The grudge that keeps on giving, Helen? Do you actually realise that you're throwing your lot in with a bloke who supports the alt-right?    Bejaysus, you're so transparent, so naive! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 07:52 PM

Some COD Science for the resident pedant.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 07:56 PM

Anyway, Helen aside, back to the substantive (as we used to say). It's amazing how quickly events are unfolding, and how the Boris government is seen to be behind the pace. I think that the proposal about over-seventies being obliged to stay at home is a step too far. That's more about covering up the Tory-led deficiencies of the NHS than it is about protecting old folk. The thing is, day by day events are overtaking us. I can't go to see my mum in her care home any more, as of yesterday (I've already written her a long letter). I can't ring her as she is profoundly deaf. Damn.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:03 PM

yeah but.. moderate and conservative mudcatters can counter that with "ultra-left-wing Steve"...

so carrying over that crusade into this thread aint really achieving much that's positive and constructive for us...???


.. innit...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:05 PM

This is where some would rather argue than inform or observe.
There is a time to be whimsical and a time to die.
We can only hope that Steve will not attend your/our funeral, as it might become embarrassing for all. I see his posts as a comma in the thread of life. Sorry I had to resort to the truth Steve, but you are still funny. :^/

I learned that restaurants in Ohio may stay open only for delivery.
But things are fluid...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:10 PM

Btw.. my mrs had a go at me today for being too cynical about boris, dom, and worst tory govt possibly ever's
plausible true agenda and intentions,
in opportunistically exploiting this health crisis for their own advantage...

re - culling the expensive burdensome weak and old,
who aren't rich enough to care about saving...

She can't allow herself to believe even this govt could be that callous and inhumane...???

My wife is too innocent and trusting in human nature...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:13 PM

"I learned that restaurants in Ohio may stay open only for delivery.
But things are fluid...2..

what.. liquid meals fed by drip...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:14 PM

2 = "

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:20 PM

"yeah but.. moderate and conservative mudcatters can counter that with "ultra-left-wing Steve"..."

Yeah, they could, but I live in a half-million quid country house that I own outright, with a half-acre garden in one of the most beautiful coastal locations in these islands, and I'm most decidedly not hard up... Let me assure you that my leftie credentials, which are still exceptionally the real McCoy (Blair Peach was my best mate...look him up...), are still sound. Damn any bastard who would characterise me otherwise. And I bloody mean it. Try me.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:20 PM

are there any statisticians or mathematicians here? I am trying to remember the meaning of exponential growth. I have googled it and yes, there is of course an equation. I was mixing it with logarithmic growth..   I was thinking if it is a constant rate, like it goes up 4% a day, that would be a linear growth. Even if it is by 50% a day. If it went up 4% one day, 16% next, squared or by a constant rate of increase..that would be exponential. I know it does not mean lots and lots and lots of growth in vague terms and no mathematics..i took graduate statistics years, nay decades ago..so I would like to see this discussed by people who know..

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:24 PM

Funk polka rocker
You are on a roll and make a good sandwhich.
But can you catch the virus from pizza?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:29 PM

Logarithmic increase is closer to the truth than exponential growth

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:34 PM

Steve - It's encouraging to know that despite your political beliefs,
you are rich enough for the tories to consider saving,
if it's a toss up who get's an ambulance and ventilator...

I however am a bolshy lefty who owns not much more than eff all,
so will probably be left for dead...

For what any of this matters to this thread...??

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:40 PM

Is the Guardian scaremongering or scary?

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
If guido said it it would be deleted(like the many factual video clips posted earlier)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:48 PM

Why is it always guardian versus guido with you...???

I don't read either..

The guardian because it is too middle class and boring,
guido because it is ruling class and shit...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 08:54 PM

Prof Chris Whitty, whose boots you are not fit to lick, would shit on your head, Iains, if he wasn't such a nice bloke. Which he is, unlike you, so you're safe. Unfortunately.

Nah then, pfr, I am totally cash-poor in spite of the fact that I accidentally cashed in on at least three house-price booms in the seventies and eighties. I own my house but I have to live in it. I have a bad back and half my teeth are missing, and I'm not totally sure about my prostate, and I'm seeing my doc next week about my bloody rotten shoulder, and I have multiple family issues, not least my 91-y-o mum who is now in lockdown. So, if it's OK with you, I'd prefer it if you didn't describe me as "rich..."

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 15 Mar 20 - 09:19 PM

Why is it always guardian versus guido with you...???

It isn't. I quote both when the factual content suits. It is a mudcat mod that has an issue by deleting most items by guido. Presumably egged on by a certain person. Having a fixation on the man rather than his news is totally inexplicable. As I have said many times whatever he posts can be checked if it is factual and the bulk of his material is factual. If it was not it would not be read by so many MPs.

Donuel surely the growth is exponential looking at most of the graphs below. With the exception ofchina and north korea.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus


Prof Chris Whitty, whose boots you are not fit to lick, would shit on your head, Iains, if he wasn't such a nice bloke. Which he is, unlike you, so you're safe. Unfortunately.

I wonder how many rules of posting on mudcat you broke with that post?
will you be chastised I ask myself? will it even be deleted?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 01:59 AM

check out this website https://nextstrain.org/ncov or follow @nextstrain on twitter. absolutely fascinating graphics of where different strains developed and traveled to. it looks, and don't take my word for it, that it went from china to Kazakhstan to belarus and into europe and approached washington state from that direction, as well as directly from china. many places seem to have multiple strains from different places. obvious travel has quite a lot to do with it. in the very original screen, where it start t==[ to show china, it also shows a spot in france. i know there was a very early french infestation involving a ski resort..and italy very infectious ski resorts and i think colorado. saw an article talking about people wiping noses on ski gloves and then leaving them on restaurant tables etc.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 03:00 AM

Some very hard criticism here of the initial response of the US to Coronavirus.

In case anyone decides to employ the tactic of attempting to devalue the piece by denigrating the qualifications of interviewee, here are his credentials.

Reading it, I wonder how our own UK government’s efforts to handle the epidemic will be viewed by independent medical experts. We have a very long way to go, this is just the start...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 04:13 AM

Every picture tells a story and tells it better than Iains list of numbers, but this is based on those numbers.

a chart of the progression of COVID-19 in the UK (opens in new tab/window)

Those who want to carp and denigrate the efforts to explain should not look at it.

But what it tells me is that it hasn't reached the peak yet. The Gaussian bell curve is not even half way. Imprecise assessment, but the trend is obvious. To an engineer anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:08 AM

Government graphs over a longer timeframe and it will hopefully updates as and when.
which show the same trend, and tell me that my dry cold and loose stools** (you didn't want to know, tough!) are consistent with the symptoms/timescale. Early adopter, maybe.

**cornflour and water helps, I chose Pomegranate juice & custard powder, much more palletable. Arrowroot didn't help. 'Scuse rushed typing, gotta dash (never trust a fart!).

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 06:14 AM

@Mr Red. Thanks for that graph. As you say, early days! By the end of April it will be a vastly changed world. With the asymptomatic carriers all   impersonating typhoid Mary the spread will be inexorable. A shortage of bogrolls is a harbinger of a drastically altered reality that people are very slow to wake up to. We are either being fed a line(unlikely) or governments are quietly shitting themselves. Conservatively the numbers are doubling every 4 daysin the UK. If front line care workers follow anything closely resembling the wider population we are in a world of hurt within a couple of weeks.
Several weeks ago the UK government suggested that at its peak 6.5million of the workforce would be ill. For the sake of argument double it for the entire population 13 million. If the projected 20% need to be hospitalised that is 2.6 million at peak. No health service can cope with those figures. Hardly surprising the projections are not headlined!
But the usual caveats apply. Just like climate change graphs, the above is based on projections. As is the crude mortality rate of 3+%.
Most say that allowing for skewed testing and collation figures 1% is a more realistic projection. But like anything else you have to work with the data you have. Absolute accuracy can only happen after the event and even that is very questionable. But it is a sobering thought that it is approximately ten times more lethal than flu that kills roughly 17000 per year. Obviously at the time of peak infection the mortality rate will rocket due to demand outstripping supply. The arguments as to who is entitled to what in the way of care is discussed at length both by UK gov and the wider world for those that wish to look rather thamn nitpick. Below is a starter for 10!

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/09/covid-19-triage-in-a-pandemic-is-even-thornier-than-you-might-think/
(The comments include my meagre contribution)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 06:28 AM

"My dry cold and loose stools..."

At least they're dry and not sloppy-loose. You're shitting shards, mate...But why are they cold? Have you been sitting on stone walls?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 06:32 AM

Based on age demographic, how much longer will the House of Lords be able to continue sitting?
House of Lords demographics

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 07:03 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 06:28 AM

After a lifetime obtaining, collating and interpreting data I guess I can read more into the situation than you.
I doubt you will be crowing by mid April.
I would like to be proved wrong but I think it most unikely. Unprecedented measures being taken worldwide would tend to suggest desperate times.
Maybe you copious prosecco consumption will give immunity, or simply projects you to cloud cuckoo land. Bon Voyage!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:13 AM

~third day of isolation. The more people who do this the better. Not everyone can. [health care workers| Breaking the exponential transmission to less than one is the goal. Its like pandamonium vs pandemic.
Stop, duck and cover comes to mind.

SILVER LININGS:

LESS POLLUTION
MORE ART PRODUCTION
HOAX ADVOCATES FADE
STRONGER FRIENDS & FAMILY

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:38 AM

I am wondering if crime will go down..or up?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Doug Chadwick
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:42 AM

How long before those silver linings begin to fade? Not long, I will guess.

DC

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:51 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNsTndy9CZo

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 08:53 AM

Very good representation of how different scenarios affect the spread here. Strict social isolation seems to be the best way.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 09:02 AM

Its easy and psychologically normal to go negative. It is even harder to be positive now that I know that Jared Kushner is now also in charge of a federal response to the corona virus.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 09:08 AM

We all know that Covid 19 is only one of TWO immediate contagions.
The other is fear.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: gillymor
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 09:17 AM

Fear doesn't seem to be rampant in this area, the folks I know are just being cautious and sharing info but I've got to say that Jared as the COVID 19 czar is fear-inducing, look for an outbreak of profiteering by the Twitler clan.
As far as the crime rate going up or down I see sales on guns and ammo have spiked so you better leave people's T.P. alone.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 10:25 AM

In my dismayed opinion,
REFUSAL to shut UK schools, keeping them open for up to three weeks until the Easter holiday
is deliberately treating teachers and school staff as expendable..

Maybe it's a ruse to eliminate older higher salaried teachers...???

Maybe it's a vindictive hostile ideological attack intentionally punishing the teaching profession,
who far right govt allied influencers accuse of being too leftist...???

Whatever, It doesn't matter how cautious I am outside in town,
I'm resigned to my wife's school being my most likely source for me to get infected..

She's always been bringing home coughs and colds...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 10:40 AM

PFR I predict closure will occur very shortly, it was only a couple of days ago Ireland closed schools and Colleges and shock horror, not a case of no beer in the pubs, but locked doors!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mossback
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 10:49 AM

....french infestation involving a ski resort..and italy very infectious ski resorts.... people wiping noses on ski gloves and then leaving them on restaurant tables etc.

Yah, that's just the sort of thing those filthy Frogs and Dagoes would do, innit?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 10:50 AM

Or I can make her strip off and swab her self with bleach, and burn her clothes
outside the front door...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:08 AM

actually my graph is still not the right picture. The Gov figures & graphs similarly are listing the totals to date. What is needed for analysis is total suffering at the moment because that demonstrates the chances you will meet someone infectious. Allowing for those that don't show appreciable symptoms, but still infectious, you could double any number. But at a rough try 2000 germ carriers in a population of 66 million is not bad, until you factor in full commuter buses and trains. Hence the work at home advice. I have tried taking into account 14 days infectiousness, but the larger numbers are all in that timeframe, and smaller numbers won't give a good picture either.

My advice, in this context (trust me), is never trust a fart, and don't sit on a loose stool.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:16 AM

MD govenor Hogan has made 5 PM the LAST CALL for all bars and sit down restaurants. Also landlords may not evict anyone for the duration.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 11:23 AM

There is an issue with scofflaws who are out and about. State Troopers have new orders to deal with them. There is alot more homeless than surfers before a hurricane.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 12:41 PM

Having been warned back in early January we are moderately prepared.
In many ways these are the good ol days with fresh citrus, varied food stores, medicine and entertainment. However health insurance does not allow stocking insulin in a national emergency so next week in this avaricious climate I will have to go on an insulin hunt. I will rely on the kindness of strangers as always.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 03:31 PM

In my dismayed opinion,
REFUSAL to shut UK schools, keeping them open for up to three weeks until the Easter holiday
is deliberately treating teachers and school staff as expendable..
For a different view, it also continues mixing people (schoolchildren) with those they already mix with, rather than releasing them from those confines and allowing them to mix more widely.
Which is the correct line to take, I don't know. But whichever the government chooses I would not attribute dishonourable motives.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 03:55 PM

Funny video! Or maybe not!

Posted by Iains 16 Mar 20 - 08:51 AM

pfr, the Australian government is in two minds (nothing unusual) about shutting schools. One good reason to keep the pupils in school is that otherwise they will be hanging out at the shopping malls infecting the wider population. At least if they are sitting in classrooms with an adult supervising them the contagion might possibly be held back for a while.

Hubby works at a high school as an IT coordinator. I have the same fears about him bringing home the problem. He told me that his school will shut two weeks earlier for the Easter term break, making it a four week shutdown.

Not an easy problem to solve.

Mossback, you are a bigot. Why assume that the people who go to ski resorts are only French or Italian?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 04:23 PM

Nigel - you should know my sense of humour regarding tory motives by now...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 04:56 PM

A way for airlines and other travel companies to (just) survive may be to simply allow free changes to flight times, etc., which I know Emirates are about to do as I have just received an email; that way some money comes in/less staff will have to be laid off.

That said, I'd nationalise all airlines and do away with capitalism altogether - replacing it with something like this "Global Regulationism"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 16 Mar 20 - 05:30 PM

Australian National Folk Festival is cancelled. I just saw it mentioned on the ABC News site.