BS: Conservative Leadership Contest

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 18 Jun 19 - 04:13 AM

I don't always agree with Stanron, but on interest rates I do. Interest rates have now been sub-inflation for years, which has unbalanced the economy, discouraging saving, encouraging reckless spending, and distorting the housing market. A return to base rate of 3-5% is what we have needed for years.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Mr Red
Date: 18 Jun 19 - 02:54 AM

There is a reason behind people no longer being able to buy houses

Nice explanation but it doesn't alter the fact that when lenders were falling over themselves to sell "finance" (aka toxic debt) to out-of-work people on interest rates that were higher (Northern Rock 110% mortgages) what did we see in 2008?
Now with low interest rates and investing in property on such interest rates and what do we see? Watch this space!

And we have seen it all before, every 15 years or so, because that is a generation that eschews old wisdom because they didn't experience the problem last time. "It is different now" is the cry. Yea, but the hurt that ensues is painfully similar. Watch this space.

Boris will have to sort it out or his party will be toast. Er - it will anyway. The personal greed in his party and its policies will ensure Boris will be unable to head-off the next recession. He has turned his coat, and he has no other colours to change into.
Watch this space.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 18 Jun 19 - 02:10 AM

”Good quality Social housing for fair rents...”

...the kind of housing we used to have before that shitbag Thatcher decided to sell it off, with the expectation that many, perhaps the majority, of properties thus sold would, within a few years, fall into the hands of private landlords - natural Tory voters..

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 09:42 PM

Good quality Social housing for fair rents...

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Stanron
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 08:09 PM

punkfolkrocker wrote: and thousands of bad greedy landlords...

That is one side of the arguement PFR. What is the other?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 08:08 PM

John Seymour, he of the self-sufficiency books and all that, was a great man whose rather right-wing attitudes could stick in the craw somewhat. But he was a vehement opponent of what he called landlordism. He sarcastically said that he was so in favour of landlords that he wanted to see tens of millions of them. He wanted every "landlord" to own the bit of land his house was on and perhaps a couple of acres more. Over and above that, he was an advocate of a graduated land tax, so steeply set that he wanted to see landlords in their panic offloading their holdings at cut price to the millions. I like it!

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 07:40 PM

and thousands of bad greedy landlords...

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Stanron
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 07:24 PM

Mr Red wrote: Fer fucks sake, we see newspapers declaring that key workers (nurses, firemen etc) in big cities can't afford to buy houses.

There is a reason behind people no longer being able to buy houses. It's to do with interest rates. When interest rates were high people with money could get income from invested cash as a result of high interest rates. Interest rates are now very low. Invested cash yields very little income. Use that previously invested cash to buy rental property and you get a lot more financial return. Invested cash gets maybe 1% interest. Investment in property gets maybe 8% interest. All ambitious money has gone into rental housing. It's not surprising that housing stock for purchase is reduced. So you choose. Do we have cheap houses with high interest rates or higher priced housing with lower interest rates?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 06:01 PM

fuck-all to do with Labour You mean the mess has nothing to do with parliament and all the MP's therein?

When you are in the deep dodo do you keep digging? Can't smell the dung? The next PM (aka Boris) still has to carry parliament. And he won't be PM after the next general election. Unless it is as a lame duck PM brooding over a hung parliament. If you want to see how that pans out look to Italy. Or the Belgian "no gov for a year" episode.

Fer fucks sake, we see newspapers declaring that key workers (nurses, firemen etc) in big cities can't afford to buy houses. Average house prices more than 5 times** average salaries, Brexshit will only make that worse. King Boris has to address that in less than 3 years and Brexshit pay-back won't even look like starting in that time. More like never IMNSHO.
You know - I don't think his drug taking has worn off yet!

**it was such a statistic we had in 2007/8 that made me predict a recession, if I could have predicted the speed, depth, and timing I would have bet against it.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 05:31 PM

Even more surprising is that we are expected to accept leaving the EU without knowing the consequences AND now except a new PM (if Johnson gets the position) without him telling us his plans.

Apart from giving already fairly well off people a tax break.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 07:29 AM

All these brexiteers whinging about democracy being betrayed by remainers,
yet not saying a word about the tories ruthlessly excluding oposition parties from the process...

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 07:14 AM

Shifting?? Bloody iPad predictive text - shitting!

Just thought I’d put the correction in before Nitpicking Nigs showed up.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 07:11 AM

BrexShit is the Tories’ mess, they were shifting their boxers over UKIP, they created it with their fatally-flawed Referendum, they’ve made it infinitely worse by refusing to create a cross party team to execute the Leave process (until, of course, The Praying Mantis realised she was completely fucked and started to panic back in April, so she turned to Labour hoping to land the blame for her total shit-show on them) - it’s their problem to sort out, fuck-all to do with Labour, Lib-Dems, or any other party.

The Tories’ shit-show, the Tories’ problem.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Iains
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 04:46 AM

If a General Election occurs in the near future will the electorate be given any clarification on the Brexit position of Labour? Either Corbyn or Watson speak with forked tongue. Or is the official stance on Brexit both in and out?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/104608/tom-watson-piles-pressure-jeremy-corbyn-and-says
Labour's antics are akin to Home and Away, but I cannot decide if more they are accurately a soap or a farce?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: The Sandman
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 03:05 AM

i have had two wagers stewart or javid

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 03:02 AM

Quite so, David C. It would be deceitful to pretend this is ONLY about the next Tory Leader when it is simultaneously and inevitably about who will be next Prime Minister.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 02:27 AM

Jeremy Corbyn clearly isn't going to be the next PM. The next but one possibly, although I would prefer Keir Starmer, and for whoever is going to be the next, I hope their tenure is short. Preferably no longer than is needed for Parliament to pass a vote of no confidence in them.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Jun 19 - 02:10 AM

Oh dear, Nigel, you cannot resist can you?

The question was as asked, as best I remember. But the context was that of the prospective tory leadership candidates. So voting consisted of using one of a fixed set of tags in Twitter, one assigned for each of the prospective candidates. People could have made up a tag for Corbyn, Boaty McBoatface or Edward the Confessor if they liked but only ones they issued would be counted.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 08:27 PM

Tory leadership contest...

For any British citizen who is not a tory supporter,
it's like asking which would you prefer out of these 6 STDs...???

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 07:42 PM

There is a TV show called 'The Last Leg', which has an audience that I suspect is very much the younger, left-leaning part of the population. Last night they asked people to tweet for their preferred PM.

SO let me stress again that this is completely biased (in the technical sense) type of survey: it is of twitter users (who tend to be younger), it is self selecting, and they did not report actual numbers of responders, just the percentages. And the sample is not representative of the entire population.

With all those caveats in mind, Rory Stewart got 70% and Boris 13%. We can put no value on the actual numbers because of all the caveats. But there is enough there, I think, to not quite rule Stewart out yet. I do not expect him to get the 33 votes for the next stage, but even so I would not be entirely surprised if he got a sliver over the threshold.

In view of the stated demographic I'm surprised that Jeremy Corbyn didn't get a look in "Last night they asked people to tweet for their preferred PM."

There again, the premise may have been miss-stated.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 12:15 PM

I am sure that was a joke (of sorts) but every totalitarian state is keen to imprison all its opponents.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Iains
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 12:13 PM

I would incarcerate all Corbyn supporters, in order to ensure they all received adequate counseling.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 11:56 AM

Prisoners can't vote...???

Don't give the tory bounders such ideas..

They already sneakily prevented thousands of EU citizens living here, and Brits living in Europe,
from voting in the last elections..

Next there'll be mass round ups, hurried sentencing and imprisonment of Labour voters
for any far fetched false allegations,
just in time for the oncoming general election...!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Mossback
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 11:52 AM

why he’d proposed Bozo, replied “Well, he’s a larrff, innee?”

Now THAT'S the spirit that put Trumpshit in the White House! - and keeps him there.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 11:28 AM

That BWM is a perfect example of why a universal franchise is a bad thing.

Actually we don't have a universal franchise. Prisoners can't vote. Not sure why when numptys can.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Jun 19 - 03:58 AM

poisoned chalice without spilling it over all and sundry.

Yup, King Bozo will be happy to do that.

And we are the ones to be showered.


I'll get my sow'ester............

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Jun 19 - 04:12 AM

Watching one of those pointless ‘Vox Pop’ things on BBC News yesterday, where they were asking (I think) a London pub crowd who they thought should be the new PM. One bright spark, asked why he’d proposed Bozo, replied “Well, he’s a larrff, innee?”.

We’re fucked.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Iains
Date: 15 Jun 19 - 03:37 AM

I suspect that whoever is elected is taking a poisoned chalice and will take the blame for the impending General Election. Of more interest is the question as to whether they will garner further support for the Tories or Brexit party during their brief reign.
I could be wrong of course= we shall see.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 15 Jun 19 - 03:20 AM

There is a TV show called 'The Last Leg', which has an audience that I suspect is very much the younger, left-leaning part of the population. Last night they asked people to tweet for their preferred PM.

SO let me stress again that this is completely biased (in the technical sense) type of survey: it is of twitter users (who tend to be younger), it is self selecting, and they did not report actual numbers of responders, just the percentages. And the sample is not representative of the entire population.

With all those caveats in mind, Rory Stewart got 70% and Boris 13%. We can put no value on the actual numbers because of all the caveats. But there is enough there, I think, to not quite rule Stewart out yet. I do not expect him to get the 33 votes for the next stage, but even so I would not be entirely surprised if he got a sliver over the threshold.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: BobL
Date: 15 Jun 19 - 02:38 AM

I think she[May]was rubbish!

I dunno, she managed to stave off the Brexit disaster, which nobody including its supporters seems to know how to handle, and hand over the poisoned chalice without spilling it over all and sundry.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:38 PM

If human civilisation is predicted to end within the next 30 years,
this is where it really starts to lose all hope....

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: peteglasgow
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:34 PM

indeed. what the fuck is going on here - these people are really horrible and we are considering them seriously as potential leaders.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:15 PM

Boris could always implode. He looked decidedly shifty in the two public events this week when his minders allowed him out, more like a hostage, or perhaps someone in a police interview trying to avoid saying the wrong thing.

His unambiguous statement in an interview today that the only time he ever tried cocaine was on one occasion when he was 19 could prove dangerous. It doesn't sound too plausible to me, and if it isn't and someone grasses him up it could cause pretty serious problems for him.

It looks pretty certain he'll be one of the two finalists, and on the face of it that should ensure he's home and dry. Unless he blows it.

The thing a lot of the MPs backing him are relying on is his dishonesty and lack of principle. Just because he promises something disastrous to get elected doesn't mean he'll stick to his words.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: peteglasgow
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:15 PM

is there any forum on the internet where rational and caring patriotic people can discuss the awful events that are happening in our country? who is disgusted and upset by what the likes of the tories and their supporters are doing to our country? why is donald trump or guy verhofstadt even a question? anyone remember the picture of our country that danny boyle showed to the world at the opening olympic ceremony in london? anyone recall the incredible string band, viv stanshall, billy connolly, specials, ivor cutler, michael marra , bonzos, stones, clash, richard thompson and many more - folk who offered a decent and open vision of our world. nowt wrong with all that stuff - hate and greed is going nowhere - it's people and love that matter. life can be brutish and short - our purpose is to help each other through it. come on everyone, get real.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 02:04 PM

So will the tories remember to reprint their offical party calendars and diaries for next year...

That'll be hilarious if come next year they realise they forgot to...

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 01:52 PM

May didn't win with a reduced majority, Stanron. She lost her majority. And one reason why a "coronation" would ostensibly suit the Tories is that it could be done quickly so that the new leader would have far more time (ha ha) to "negotiate" with the EU. A late-July victory would leave hardly any useful time, what with holidays, recesses, etc, before that much-vaunted Oct 31 deadline. Well, I've heard it said anyway... :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 12:30 PM

Now Stewart has gained atention, he'd be better off aiming for leadership
in the next contest after brexit a few years down the line..

Boris will win so he tick off the box on his CV,
then f@ck up, and f@ck off...

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Mr Red
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 12:21 PM

Boris is a survivor. Without the "interesting times" we live in it would be a foregone conclusion that he wold be PM shoe-in.
Goddamit he has admitted drugs & adultery, and his campaign suffers no ill. Gove admits it and his campaign dips.

And I have come to the annoying conclusion it will run to prediction.

Despite: the Corbyn debacle
Trump surprise
& Brexshit.

Or Syrian status quo remaining, although with hindsight .....................

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 11:39 AM

"The final two candidates have to stump up £150,000 each to pay for the vote amongst the membership."

Democracy in action...

You can't become Leader of the tory party,
and by default standing PM,
unless you or your donors are rich enough...


All that bollocks they brainwashed us with at Grammar school in the early 1970s
about meritocracy and social mobility... Ha.. ha..ha...

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 11:17 AM

It is a coronation in my book if the ordinary members are not offered the choice between the two candidates because at that point the candidate is unopposed. You may choose to use a different definition if you wish: that is mine.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 10:32 AM

It all depends on the who is defining 'not gone well'. If it is couldn't give a shit about anyone but themselves Tories, things have gone swimmingly. For the remaining compassionate and caring population who believe that social care is important, nothing the Tories have done has gone well.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Stanron
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 10:20 AM

I have already pointed out that Mrs May was not elected unopposed. I think that the last Tory leader who was appointed unopposed was Sir Alec Douglas-Home. If you had watched yesterday's Politics Live you might have noticed Andrew Neill filling in the wait for the leadership vote result by reviewing past Tory leadership contests. Your claim was that

" The last few Tory leader 'coronations' have not gone well,"

The last time that happened was forty of fifty years ago or more. The line I quoted was a slur and it has absolutely no basis in fact. I presume that now you move the goal posts?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 09:37 AM

You can find out who was elected unopposed as easily as I can, stanron. And also have an opinion on how well the country and/or party did while they were leader.

I won't argue, as this is all the past. The interesting question is whether the leader is to be picked based on what are perceived to be the best interests of the party or the country. Boris for example is highly popular amongst the Tory faithful, we are told, but has a long history of gaffes and errors, including on the international stage. Will these just be ignored, I wonder?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Stanron
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 09:18 AM

DMcG wrote: So you think May did a brilliant job?

I think she was rubbish!

I was asking about your 'few' Tory leaders.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 08:59 AM

So you think May did a brilliant job?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Stanron
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 08:49 AM

DMcG wrote: The last few Tory leader 'coronations' have not gone well,

Would you care to expand on this?

Mrs May won all the votes barring the last one and that was avoided only because her opponent, who was trailing, made a bit of a gaff and withdrew. She went on to fight a general election and, despite having a reduced majority, did actually win.

So, with regard to your 'few' Tory leaders, who are the others?

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Raggytash
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:33 AM

The final two candidates have to stump up £150,000 each to pay for the vote amongst the membership.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:08 AM

(Seek the wider remit, that is.)

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 07:07 AM

The BBC summary if the papers says "But the Spectator website says with Mr Johnson looking increasingly unassailable among both MPs and the wider Tory membership, the second place candidate will come under pressure to step aside before the grassroots get a say."

That strikes me as very unwise. The last few Tory leader 'coronations' have not gone well, and it would, I suspect, hand yet another card to Farage about "Parliament rigging." If they are confident Boris would win in amongst the ordinary members, it is safer for even his supporters in the party to do so.

Subject: RE: BS: Conservative LeadershipContest
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 14 Jun 19 - 06:54 AM

The latest "whisper" is that his "rivals" are discussing an alliance to ensure his defeat in the leadership contest.
Interesting 'whisper', but a little lacking in achievability. As long as Boris doesn't lose any of his existing supporters he is already in line to be in the final two to be put to the membership.
He had 114 of the 313 available votes. That is more than 1/3 so (if unchanged) would guarantee being in the last two.