BS: New rules for the coming pandemic

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 06:23 PM

He's out of his depth, and we are well behind the curve when we look at what other EU countries are doing. The talk of herd immunity was the talk of scoundrels. Without an effective vaccine, herd immunity would be achieved by the vast majority of the population catching the disease and tens of thousands, at best, dying. The term is generally used only in the context of immunity achieved via vaccination, not via plague.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 05:44 PM

My feeling is that Russia is very likely correct in indicating their numbers of infected is low. When they want to clamp down on people acting in ways that spread the infection, the clamp down is pretty effective.

As has been the case in China, once they'd got a grip on things - the figures for new cases appears to be way way down now.
...........

The initial evident decision of the UK government seems to have been to go for minimal efforts to stop it spreading, in the hope that if everyone got it, and the survivors would have "herd immunity".

Problem being, if 50 million got it, and there's a one in a hundred chance of dying - which is a lot lower than some estimates - that would have meant half a million dead. So, faced with the situation that everone else was doing everything to stop transmission, they fortunately seem to have made a U- turn. Trying to disguise things by talking about introducing things tgat would reduced transmission "only at the right time", as if somehow slowly infection rates reduced the danger of a peak of infections.

It's frightening to look at Boris Johnson waffling on and looking life a terrified rabbit in his daily press conferences. Almost as bad as looking at Trump babbling away.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 03:38 PM

pfr, I've been wondering about Russia but I suspect they would be playing their cards close to their chest by keeping their data under wraps.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 03:09 PM

Well said, SPB-Cooperator Date: 18 Mar 20 - 07:43 AM

In Australia, following the prolonged years of drought, catastrophic bushfires, then floods our farming areas have copped a severe beating, however they are making a comeback so we are relying on them to supply food to the nation. A lot of farmers were already leaving their farms after years of drought so the other natural disasters might have been the last straw for some. The big hit of rain that we had helped with the drought so crops and livestock had a better chance of survival, but then caused floods in some areas.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 03:00 PM

"and for added security as an eight years old as well!"

that'd make bedtime with the mrs a bit too pervy...!!!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 02:57 PM

Pfr if it is A you are bugg***d or you can self identify as Type O and for added security as an eight years old as well!

MayoMick Yes it was Imperial released the study and the government broke the gearbox while ramping up through the gears in order to make the requisite moves to combat a vastly increased perceived threat.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/
It presents a vicious problem as the data is dodgy, patchy and vastly inadaquate for the required task. But it is all there is to work with
The Great Flu pandemic of 100 years ago still has little confidence in the accuracy of the numbers impacted and the true mortality rate. Such is the nature of the beast.
The 250k death rate presumably accounts for the rapidly ramped up response by government and similarly I would suggest that locking up granny an d social exclusion measures may"optimistically drive the projected deaths down by 90% to the stated 20k. Let us wish them good luck with the measures and hope they are 100% successful.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 01:32 PM

It's a bloody good job I don't know my blood type...!!!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mayomick
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 01:25 PM

I hope that the revised figure is right .Was it the Imperial College London study published two days ago predicting 250,000 deaths in the UK that you were referring to,Iains? I was going to post a link but see that it's been taken down.

The New York Post is quoting a limited study in China suggesting that people with A blood types are more susceptible to the virus and more likely to die if they do catch it:
The study also examined 206 patients who died from the virus, finding 85 victims, or 41.26 percent, had type A blood. Just 52 of the deaths, or about a quarter, had type O

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/people-with-blood-type-a-might-be-more-susceptible-to-coronavirus-study-finds/?fbclid=IwAR3cpfn6JwqAaelC2kMdXaXwJdDi42Dw9bGBcygfZhPSdWxEe5HVfM9GgGk

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:59 PM

"Sounds like good news to me."
Me too - though that sort of good fortune is bound to be resented bitterly in some quarters, as has become quickly obvious
Perhaps it would have been better to let this thing take its course as they are doing in Northern Ireland by refusing schools permission to close when some of the pupils have been struck down according to today's news
It's still a toss up whether it#s going to happen in Britain as a whole
FECKIN' INSANE
Great thing living in the 'free west' sometimes
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:57 PM

The problem of insufficient accurate data
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-withou
It provides a reasonable summary of the problem

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:37 PM

The measures adopted in China were "Draconian" and obeyed.
Western society is less obedient and the state does not have absolute control and can only react to events in a way the public will mostly accept. We see the impact of that approach in the numbers infected in Europe. To suggest a death toll in the UK of 20000 when common flu kills 17000 each year is optimism on steroids I suspect. It is either a far less dangerous infection than they say or there is a cunning plan to stop infection outright somewhere down the tracks.
I do not believe either.
.A figure was quoted of 220k UK deaths several dats ago now 10% of that figure is quoted as an optimistic outcome. There has been no explanation for the revised anticipated mortality and does not correlate with 55 deaths equating to 55k infected in the community. Maybe an explanation will be forthcoming.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:20 PM

‘THE Chinese Virus’!!

Bloody iPad predictive text!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:19 PM

Wonder why Trump insists on referring to Covid-19 as They Chinese Virus’? He’s just done it again on TV at the beginning of his press-conference.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:18 PM

There is too much of this rapidly escalated global emergency shut down,
which raises suspicions amongst us more politically cynical folks..

The world needs to pull together and pool resources to combat a real viral threat..

BUT.. when super powers and money markets are involved.....??????????

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 12:07 PM

It seems that in China the number of new cases is dropping and they are now lowering the state of emergency. Sounds like good news to me.

What does puzzle me is that if this is so and given that the global deaths is now 8000 and odd, how does the prediction of 20000 just for the UK fit in. What am I misding?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 10:21 AM

that should of course be 2626 tested positive. (some of my keyboard jkeys are getting a little iffy)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 10:19 AM

262 tested positive today. Doubled in 4 days.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 09:47 AM

BBC news reported last night on the blaming of the Kremlin for a massive info war
to destabilise the West's response to pandemic...

Is Covid to scared of Putin to risk infecting Russia...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 09:33 AM

And I wish sites like Twitter would apply that policy to Donald Trump...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 09:30 AM

I hope people can avoid using this forum as a place to post dodgy rumours and shaky statistics.

It may be too optimistic to think that there won't be some people who can't resist doing that - in such cases it would be good if the posts were deleted, and the posters responsible asvised they risk been barred.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 08:44 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EH1G4EwljM
This has been updated for pensioners: (Dad's Army)
       "We are cocooned!"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 08:16 AM

Short of recriminations, repeating myself or info that can be found anywhere, there is nothing more I can add.

Harden your defenses, enjoy what you can and be safe.
Is been fun.
Donuel

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 07:53 AM

Listening to a fascinating broadcast on How Trump is handling the crisis politically
He started y claiming it was all "DEMOCRATIC PLOT" based on "fake news"
Now he is saying that HE KNEW IT WAS A PANDEMIC ALL ALONG
Instead of taking the lead he has appointed representatives to take the brunt - if all goes smoothly he takes the creadit, if it goes wrong he blames them
There's a description of how he blamed his main man for not doing enough, he was told, "You're the \president - you do more"
He blames China for the virus while his aides have been publicly telling anti-Chinese racist jokes to an Asian reporter
He hasn't forgotten THE PUBLIC in all this, of course

I thought our lot were bad.....
Jim Caarroll

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 07:43 AM

Are we, as a nation, adequately prepared for this summer's/autumn's labour shortages in getting food stuffs from the fields to people's tables? We have already told seasonal agricultural workers that they are not welcome here. Are we really going to be able to mobilise enough vulnerable domestic 'workers' to fill the gap? And in the next couple of years, how much land use will go over to more profitable commodities like bio-fuels. I understand that this has already caused food shortages in other parts of the world.

The world needs to wake up, start doing joined up thinking or openly admit that human lives are expendable in the pursuit of wealth.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 07:27 AM

We are back to the begining:


From: Donuel - PM
Date: 24 Jan 20 - 04:21 PM

The spread of the human to human mutation of the Coronavirus has already put 33 million people on lockdown. Once infected there is a death rate of 1 in 3 (34 %)?

Might I suggest relaxing Mudcat rules on posting to BS after the pandemic passes in 3 years.

There are currently no known antivirals or vaccines. Do not believe Trump> there are no connections to Mexican beer, in fact the disease began in snakes.

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel - PM
Date: 24 Jan 20 - 04:25 PM

..there are no known cures or antivirals and vaccines to treat this strain, however its DNA genome has been sent to labs worldwide.

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons - PM
Date: 24 Jan 20 - 04:40 PM

The BBC quotes 26 deaths from 830 confirmed cases. This is hardly a death rate of 1 in 3.
Please don't spread doom and despondency without some simple facts.
I accept that you may have misread the BBC pageHere which states:
How deadly is it?
Twenty-six people are known to have died from the virus - 3-4% of the known cases.
But the infection seems to take a while to kill, so more of those patients may yet die.

Note that that page says 3-4%, NOT 34%

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Dave the Gnome - PM
Date: 24 Jan 20 - 06:10 PM

It has nothing to do with us Genomes. You can't even spell it right!

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel - PM
Date: 24 Jan 20 - 07:05 PM

Nigel , without your knowing incubation time and spouting nonsense from your state news service you have drawn an ill informed conclusion as well.
This brand new mutated version does not obey the rules you have assumed. I thought I introduced the subject with appropriate levity.
Thats OK, I know the messenger is seldom believed.
In any disaster in the initial early stages, reported numbers are highly massaged.

You have a case in Scotland and Ireland already.

The new rules for locking down areas of China is unique and involves 20-35 million people during a holiday month. The Great Wall is closed along with all amusement parks, theatres etc.

Incubation is 5 days and will bloom starting this weekend.

Dave: Please disregard any warning containing a spelling error but please do not try to fly to WuHan province.

I suppose many Americans don't know that 8,000 have died from the common flu this season.
1 in 3 is not as bad as the Ebola death rate which has decreased this year.

Check the language from the CDC

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains - PM
Date: 25 Jan 20 - 02:56 AM

Apparently the median age for deaths is 75, so likely underlying conditions have an impact.

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red - PM
Date: 25 Jan 20 - 03:52 AM

so likely underlying conditions have an impact.

So that's OK for the demographic of Folkies then?

Apparently the impact of the lock-down at Wuhan (8 Million) and neighbouring large cites is mostly all embracing, helped by the lunar new year. Maybe panic is the wrong approach, but serious caution is warranted. The Scottish cases hadn't been confirmed as the coronovirus as of last midnight (GMT), but the suspected cases were from Wuhan. And there are reckoned to be 2000 people being traced by UK authorities in connection. Some of who may have been in transit to other destinations.

Face masks are common in Wuhan right now.

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Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons - PM
Date: 25 Jan 20 - 07:54 AM


I'm guessing you have no facts to base your doom-mongering on,

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 05:45 AM

From today's Guardian (they clain truth was not hurt during the making of this article)
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.
Several things to note about the article.
The WHO mortality rate is rude crude and grossly exaggerates.
The common flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%( annual fatalities uk 17k)
Yesterday the UK figures quoted suggested that because 55 had died the number infected countrywide was 55000.
a 1% mortality = 550 deaths
a 0.1% mortality = 55 deaths.
It is a given that an old population and a polluted environment will skew the rate upwards, as will be the case when numbers start to swamp the system.
Assuming 80% eventually get infected that is 56 million so s death toll on those optimistic mortality rates is still 1/2 million deaths.
still early days so all numbers quoted are highly quesstionable.
The great flu pandemic death toll varies depending upon source. 2.5% - 10% mortality are quoted. But antibiotics to deal with bacterial pneumonia were not in the tool box back then, neither were ventilators or today's more advanced medical techniques.
In the early stages mortality rates are inevitably high calculations.
This is no bad thing as it forces government to look into the abyss and plan accordingly. The measures being taken now would have caused revolution a month ago.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 01:34 AM

WHO Now Officially Recommends to Avoid Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 11:26 PM

This may have already been discussed here way back in the thread..

But an obvious consideration is:
how many of the increasing UK covid fatalities
would have died anyway this time of year,
if the pandemic hadn't finished them off a few days or weeks quicker...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 09:07 PM

Speaking of shameless exploitation of the corona crises, AMC is starting production of 'The Coughing Dead'.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 08:54 PM

Mossback, Steve did not write the brilliant dittie. Run it through Plagiarism.org

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 08:45 PM

We always used to use a Sears catalog in the out house. I suspect modern newspaper print might not be so good - different texture paper. But in a crisis it should do well enough. Lots of paper in a paper.
.........
Interesting to consider how many wartime slogans and terns fit the times. "Is your journey really necessary" , "Careless talk costs lives" (applicable to the fools of hateful micrcocephallic disttinction who malitiously pass on rumours about miracle cures and so forth they have come across on neo nazi websites), Then, the most appropriate term to use when talking about how long it will last is in the fullest of time".   "Make do and Mend", "Coughs and Sneezes Spread Diseases".   

And of course "Keep Calm and Carry On" - which never meant pretending there's nothing wrong, but don't panic and give up, control yourself and do whatever needs doing without fussing. Which is mediocre advice.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 08:25 PM

Trouble is, Kevin, I'm having increasing difficulty finding newspaper that has photos of Thatcher on...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 08:21 PM

We always used to use newspaper in the loo. I suspect modern newspaper might not be so good - different texture paper. But in a crisis it should do well enough. Lots of paper in a paper.
.........
Interesting to consider how many wartime slogans and terns fit the times. "Is your journey really necessary" , "Careless talk costs lives" (applicable to the fools who gaily pass on rumours about miracle cures and so forth they have come across online), Then, the most appropriate term to use when talking about how long it will last is ¿the duration".   "Make do and Mend", "Coughs and Sneezes Spread Diseases".   

And of course "Keep Calm and Carry On" - which never meant pretending there's nothing wrong, but don't panic and give up, control yourself and do whatever needs diing without fussing. Which is excellent advice.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:54 PM

there is talk that hydroxychloroquine ? can be helpful, especially when combined with an anti-HIV drug. Google it or not.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mossback
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:49 PM

It’s the Wurst Käse scenario.

BRILLIANT !

Ta, Steve.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 06:22 PM

In Germany everyone’s panic-buying sausages and cheese. It’s the Wurst Käse scenario.
And apparently Greece is running low of hummus and taramasalata, leading to fears of a double-dip recession.
Apparently French supermarkets look like a bomb site. The only thing left is de brie.
In Holland people have been stockpiling cheese. It’s like they don’t give Edam about anyone else.
And in a supermarket in Cardiff a sign reads 'Please shop responsibly and caerphilly'

I'll get me coat...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 05:04 PM

perhaps the most honest government ad I have ever seen: (2 minutes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 04:56 PM

So the $ that hourly workers get from Trump is just enough to pay landlords but little else. For the 100 millon people who need to eat more money is needed. BUT if you refuse to pay rent you can have many grocery runs.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 04:26 PM

pfr, you've rumbled my little game!

I just went down to the nearest supermarket, stood in a long line which was getting longer by the minute, had a nice chat to the people around me, heard the rumour that the shop had no toilet paper, smiled at the two attending Police officers when I reached the door, showed my ID, asked the supermarket man at the door whether they had any toilet paper and he said there had been none delivered today, so I turned around and went back home.

Luckily it's only 10 minutes drive from my place and I have enough TP to last a couple of weeks maybe and I am hoping fervently that the panic buyers might have woken up to themselves by then.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 04:15 PM

Have they forgotten that many pensioners are still criminals,
or even just spiv black market sellers...???

How many times can organised gangs of grannies go back
to fill baskets up with essentials to sell on ebay...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 03:11 PM

In Australia a couple of major supermarket chains have introduced an hour a day for the elderly and for disabled people. It started yesterday. Eligible people need to show a relevant government-issued ID card, e.g. pension or Seniors card etc or disability card.

Good idea but they didn't think one thing through. The people with carers who help them with their shopping. The carers were not allowed in because they were not eligible.

At least one supermarket chain has acknowledged that their strategy needs some tweaking.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 03:05 PM

Mad as a box of frogs...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 03:00 PM

Can Trump ever make his mind up from one day to the next,
if he is good mates with China...???

It's like little kids in infant school...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 02:49 PM

Blaming foreigners? How about Trump and his "Chinese virus?"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 02:29 PM

Merci beaucoup Mrrzy! Je n'ai pas encore eu d'autre nouvelles, mais depuis qu'elle soit assez jeune (29) on a un peu d'espoir qu'elle sera vite guérie, ('Inch Allah' comme mon époux Ibrahima dit!)
Ta poste m'a bcp levé le moral. Gros bisous Mrrzy!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 02:12 PM

Apologies Doug - I hadn't seen it before now and didn't check the date - I should have
I think the blaming of foreigners is on the cards as this problem continues; I didn't want it to b an issue here
I stand admonished
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Doug Chadwick
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 02:01 PM

I thought in needed nipping in the bud ...

The original comment was made on 1 March. Most people followed the recommended practice of not rising to the bait and letting it wither away of its own accord. Over two weeks later, you bring the subject to the fore - hardly nipping it in the bud. You must have known that the person who made the comment would react, so I can only assume that a fight is what you wanted.

DC

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mrrzy
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 01:45 PM

Bonne guérison à ta nièce, Senoufou!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 01:43 PM

Have the UK army and other forces been so cut down
they no longer have fleets of trucks and other utility vehicles,
which could be co-ordinated for food deliveries, etc...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Mar 20 - 01:19 PM

UK Gov graphs again shows a fall in the daily number. And it looks to be a false dawn, it is too low for the Gaussian expectation. It may show people are responding, which means a useful delay but will put the tail further out into the festival season. Good for the NHS. Medically. But longer pain. Early days.

Have a nice day...................