BS: UK thread, Politics and political

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 04:00 PM

24 September 2019 • 9:31am

Pro-Brexit campaigner Arron Banks has threatened to sue the Electoral Commission after he was cleared of any criminality over £8 million in EU referendum campaign funding.

In a statement, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said it had found no evidence that any criminal offences had been committed after the Electoral Commission referred what it described as multiple breaches of electoral spending law for investigation.

The NCA said it would therefore take no further action against Mr Banks, Leave.EU chief executive Liz Bilney or associated organisations.
Note the date!
The court case I referred to was 29April 2020
Mr Banks 1, Electoral Commission nil.
Not unfounded allegations but case proven in favour of Mr Banks in the High Court of Justice Queen's Bench Division.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 03:18 PM

"In a statement released on Friday, the Met concluded there was insufficient evidence to justify further investigation of the group, which was set up by the insurance businessman Arron Banks.

“It is clear that whilst some technical breaches of electoral law were committed by Leave.EU in respect of the spending return submitted for their campaign, there is insufficient evidence to justify any further criminal investigation,” the statement said.

It added that Leave.EU’s responsible person for legal purposes, Liz Bilney, a business associate of Banks, would also face no further police action.

The investigation was launched after the Electoral Commission concluded in May 2018 that the group had committed multiple breaches of electoral spending law during the EU referendum and fined it £70,000.

The breaches included exceeding the legal spending cap by at least 10% and delivering incorrect spending and transactions records."
Metripoliton Police statement

Frivolous my arse

Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 02:15 PM

In other news today Arron Banks and Liz Bilney, the CEO of Leave.EU, follow in the footsteps of Darren Grimes by winning in the High Court against the Electoral Commission. Today the Electoral Commission agreed terms of settlement over the Electoral Commission’s announcement in November 2018 of its referral of Banks and Bilney to the National Crime Agency for further investigation.
This is the third Court case on the EU referendum and joins
-We send £350 million a week to the NHS - TRUE
-Darren Grimes did not break the law - TRUE
-Arron Banks did not break the law - TRUE

I wonder how much taxpayers money was squanndered pursuing these frivolous claims?

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: An Buachaill Caol Dubh
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 01:35 PM

At least there should be plenty of time to obtain, distribute and store sufficient PPE.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 01:18 PM

and of course since the first wave did not overwhelm the NHS, a second wave the same size would be acceptable within those tests.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 12:39 PM

I agree that the original of 'no chance of a second wave' was unrealistic, though they should have known that from the beginning. However the formulation they have gone for is both the earliest possible release and the highest risk option.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Rain Dog
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 12:30 PM

2 legs 4 legs

No chance of a second wave?

Not sure how anyone could safely say that there is going to be no chance of a second wave.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 12:23 PM

Every day for a while the Government has been telling us the five tests before easing of the lockdown.

Up until yesterday, the fifth test was

"no chance of a second wave"

Today it has been changed to

"no chance of a second that would overwhelm the NHS"

Fans of Animal Farm, please note!

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Raggytash
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 09:03 AM

Once again there is no analysis or context in the guido "report".

Reporting such lines as "according to two people involved" … were they the cleaners or the people who brought the coffees in!

Quoting Bloomberg sage sources …….. what sources, how does a right wing American news channel have sources suddenly elevated to be the font of all wisdom.

Is anyone silly enough to believe such "reporting". Really?.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 08:20 AM

Sorry Jim, I allowed my halo to slip, and dropped into ‘Magic Grandad’ and ‘Abbopotamus’ mode. Nice to get one’s own back occasionally.

Normal service now resumed.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 08:16 AM

"latest Illegitimate child."
Miaow :-)
Goood to see it more important that the coronavirus figures though - always did have his priorities right, our Boris
Good job they don't acknowledge all of them - we'd have to buy The Sun for the rest of the news
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 07:25 AM

for what it is worth, Nigel, I read Steve's comment as a direct response to the comment I made in which I named him. I did not see it as directed at anyone else.

And I am quite content for it to be directed at me.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 07:24 AM

I see this morning that the Prime Minister’s partner has given birth to a baby boy, and that mother and baby are doing well.

I’d like to congratulate Mr. Johnson and Miss Symonds on the birth of their child, and say what a very pleasant change it makes to see him publicly acknowledging the arrival of his latest Illegitimate child.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 07:19 AM

You can differ as much as you like, but useful comparisons between countries can be made only if broadly similar methods of amassing those numbers are used in each country

I fully agree, and you have already said this several times. But you always appear to direct the comment at Iains. The idea of comparisons was introduced onto this discussion by someone else.

From: Jim Carroll
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 01:09 PM

Just been announced that the UK is set to have the highest number of virus casualties/deaths in Europe - deaths hve more than doublesd in the last seven days
Surely this will end the calls to ease the lock-down - fingers crossed?
Jim

Any comparisons since that point have been comments on that claim (or on the subsequent counter-claims).

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 07:18 AM

"Well he did advocate an earlier lockdown, as did you."
He also recommended that weaker members of society be given lower priority - a crisis used for euthanasia
Trolling is right
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 06:20 AM

You can differ as much as you like, but useful comparisons between countries can be made only if broadly similar methods of amassing those numbers are used in each country. The issues involved are not minor. Care home deaths and deaths not in hospital have not been included here. "Deaths involving coronavirus" in this country are logged on the say-so of a doctor who has usually not got a test result to go from. On top of that, a Coronavirus death may reach the figures tomorrow morning, in five weeks' time or something in between. Now convince me that the countries you wish to compare us with are doing similar, or at least that you have a way of stripping away the inconsistencies between one country and another that muddle the results. Looking at our own numbers is useful in that they inform future strategy. Comparing countries may be done for political purposes (the brexiteers are sniffing around, for example), so you'd better have good numbers at the outset. Which we haven't got as things stand.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 06:07 AM

Not everyone is in the fortunate position of no longer having to need to work

To be honest, we don't know how may such people there will be. In normal circumstances stopping the 'triple-lock' on pensions is such a vote loser no one considers it seriously, but something like the effects of this virus could get both sides of the house to agree it is should go. Then many pension funds are based on the stock market, so the value of pensions involved could drop significantly. If there is a forced devaluation it could eat up savings...

There may be quite a few pensioners forced back to work. We can't be sure.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 05:58 AM

Same Day reporting
MESSAGE ONE
MESSAGE TWO
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Rain Dog
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 05:53 AM

"On the other hand, half Britain's leaders are saying it is necessary to continue and possibly intensify lock-down (including a "one-bitten' Johnson, while the other half are demanding an easing of restrictions for the sake of big-business"

Not just for the sake of big business.

There is going to be huge financial cost for the taxpayers and a number of future governments here in the UK. The present government has spent/is going to spend huge amounts of money in trying to deal with this situation.

Not everyone is in the fortunate position of no longer having to need to work. There does need to be a managed return to work at some point, probably sooner rather than later. No doubt it will be a gradual return while also keeping an eye on the number of new cases of the virus.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 05:39 AM

It is a blatant lie - a piece of right-wing propaganda in fact. to suggest that where any major contradictions in the advice from the real experts - it it wwere true it would be emblazoned ovr every headline in Britain
This is what the Stewart' called "a makkie-up"
There may be differences of opinion on nuances, but overall, there is total and clearly stated agreement on the best way to proceed

On the other hand, half Britain's leaders are saying it is necessary to continue and possibly intensify lock-down (including a "one-bitten' Johnson, while the other half are demanding an easing of restrictions for the sake of big-business
That someone should continue to use this crisis as a photo-opportunity for anti-Labour propaganda is beyond belief and puts all his arguments where thay have always belonged - in the political gutter
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 05:04 AM

Expert - BBC ----- who should we rely on Dominic Scumbag ?
This is delibarate sabotage from 'Fake News Freddie' maybe
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 04:48 AM

I partially agree with your 29 Apr 20 - 04:00 AM post Iains, and it is where I differ from Steve: yes, we would love to have the well-defined data so we can accurately cross-compare one country with another reliably: nothing could be better. And, retrospectively it might be possible to do that, though I doubt it because I suspect we are not collecting the additional information we would need to resolve the data sets. Had we stayed in the EU no doubt we could try to agree some reporting standards to apply to future pandemics as one of the 'lessons learned'. But we are in the position where we have to make the best use of the flawed data we have. We would rather not be, but needs must.

But this is where I part company with Iains's post: if we are accepting the data that is '80%' that is what we have to do. We cannot accept bits we like and ignore bits we don't like. So if COBRA is accepting that graph as 'the broad picture' as the COBR in the corner would suggest it is, then the broad picture also says the UK(all settings) is appreciably worse than other countries excluding the US.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 04:21 AM

Interesting that the recent Panorama program was crewed by a bunch of Labour activists. This is a direct breach of BBC guidlines where such bias should be notified to the prospectiveaudience.
"”Appropriate information about their affiliations, funding and particular viewpoints should be made available to the audience, when relevant to the context.”

Another nail in the BBC coffin.

Full details in the link
Health Secretary slams Panorama

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 04:14 AM

During the war the BBC news was happily being contradicted nightly by Lord Haw-Haw - the Yanks has Tokyo Rose
We'll have to think of a name for ours
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 04:00 AM

DMcG The only point I make is that the data is inevitably flawed. But if it is the best you have and is 80% accurate that is all you can use for planning purposes. It is not a blame game, it is the reality.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-04-06/the-flaws-in-coronavirus-case-reporting-data

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/forecasts-and-projections.html

https://blog.protiviti.com/2020/04/28/covid-19-crisis-exposes-flaws-in-master-data-sets/

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 03:23 AM

Isn't it odd
Thde BBC News headlines the situation of deaths as they stand at the time (Ist item) and 'Along Comes Jones' to tell you what the real facts are within hours
Someone really does have a hot-line to God
In this crisis - everybody but everybody hads to rely on the main news outlets - the BBC, for all its weaknesses and class predilections, being the main one
If people had behaved like some do doring wartime we'd all be wearing uniforms and flinging our right arms in the air
This is divisive - Trump invented 'Fake News' to cover is idiocy and inept leadership and made it a one man White House cottage industry
Some of it seems to made it across the pond
It's one thing to discuss how the crisis is bein handled (essential, in fact)
It's quite another to dispute official announcements and undermine experts because theuy don't suit certain individual tastes
Best to pretend there's a war on and bit lips eh - you can blame the last Labour Government when this is all over - there's a good lad
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 20 - 01:06 AM

Iains, I think you are perhaps missing that this is one of the graphs that the Government shows us every day, and that it is presented by one of the scientists in attendance. It standards to reason, then, that for all its limitations they consider it one of the better ways the data can be presented.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: An Buachaill Caol Dubh
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 07:24 PM

With regard to the measures taken in different places, as far as I understand things New Zealand has been fortunate.
I'm getting my mask.   #{:^[]

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 06:23 PM

DMcG If there is no way to directly compare data sets from one country with another it follows that claims this country is worse than that country are meaningless. Apples do not compare with oranges. Even crude death rates cannot compare as cause of death is recorded by way of different criteria from one country to another. The inaccuracy of data compilation both within countries and between countries has been a major stumbling block for forward planning throughout this crisis. This has been highlighted frequently. The difference between German and Belgian compilations of cause of death certificates is very much an apples and oranges comparison. Whatever metric is chosen for comparison it is flawed. This has always been a given from day one. Even when the dust has settled direct   comparisons between countries will be impossible because there is no standardisation of data compilation. Total numbers of fatalities may well be accurate. Cause of death most assuredly will not be, as most will have at least one comorbidity.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 05:30 PM

The bottom line is that different European (and other) countries are in different stages of preparedness, in different stages of testing, in different stages of knowing who has and who hasn't had the virus, and who all have their different ways of collecting their statistics. The care home issue is a shining example of inconsistencies among different countries. There is no point to be made by trying to use numbers to compare countries. A starting point would be to count the excess of deaths over the seasonal average over a number of years, then to strip away confounding factors, then to analyse every single death in relation to whether it was a Coronavirus death or not. Then we're talking. All else is bullshit.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 05:11 PM

As I did to my limited following weeks ago, today the Scottish government added wearing a mask at supermarkets, etc., to social distancing and stay-at-home measures.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 04:23 PM

Just read that link, Iains. The subtitle points out "Brussels counts deaths at nursing homes even if there wasn’t a confirmed infection".

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 04:20 PM

As always, there are many way to think of such things, but if you look at the Government's slide for Global Deaths, and look at the latest shown "UK (all settings)" figures, then the UK is worse than any other country at that stage except the US, and by a considerable margin. Note also that the France figures, as mentioned in the explanation, include all care homes.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 04:17 PM

https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/why-the-worlds-highest-covid-19-death-rate-is-in-europes-capital-1.71195913

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 04:13 PM

Invideous? I do not think so. Neither does Worldometer, a provider of global COVID-19 statistics for many caring people around the world. Their data is also trusted and used by the UK Government, Johns Hopkins CSSE, the Government of Thailand, the Government of Pakistan, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Insider, BBC, and many others.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 03:51 PM

Well if only we knew how many have had Coronavirus and how many have died of it. Which we don't. Comparing countries is an invidious exercise.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 03:25 PM

The worst in Europe is actually Belgium. But like many comparisons it is not like for like. Tha partially explains low figures for Germny and high figures for Belgium.
belgium has 633 deaths per million, Germany 74. Spain 510, Italy 453,
France 367, UK 319

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 03:10 PM

Raggy, sadly those days are long gone for me. So I just put a brave face on it, and keep suppin’ the Yorkshire Tea - the Rolls Royce of teas!

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 03:04 PM

" the doubling refers to deaths in care homes,"
I think you may be right Steve - being the worst in Europe is the clicher for me
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 03:02 PM

I've been enjoying a cup of Tetley tea at 4pm with a slice of sourdough bread, butter and jam, to keep the worms from biting up to 5.30 when I stop work for the day!

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 03:00 PM

Backwoodsman, There is a secret to not getting hangovers.

The secret is to stay drunk.


Steve, I too have kept off the beer for lent, not the wine though. Aldi have some very passable Toro Loco Merlot at 7 Euro a bottle and some very passable Baron Armarillo Rioja again at 7 Euro a bottle.

I'm thinking of having an extension built to store the empties!

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 02:46 PM

Tea’s just as good, and no headache in the morning...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 02:32 PM

Drink wine, Raggytash. You have to adapt. My great grandad, a Salford man, always gave up beer for Lent. He drank wine instead. That's the way to do it...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 02:19 PM

Surely any "lessening" of the restrictions need to take into account numerous factors. Is there PPE for the entire population, the answer to that is no. We do not enough to cater for the needs of front-line staff.
Is the "lessening" of restrictions to allow essential work to be carried out. What is essential is debateable.

Is a "lessening" to allow people to go to the pub (and I speak as a regular pub goer) no way!

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 01:40 PM

Surely this will end the calls to ease the lock-down - fingers crossed?

I would like to think so, but I fear if, as slackening lockdown is being discussed and implemented in varying degrees in Germany, Italy, France and Spain and others there will be some - and I am not referring to people on this thread - who would see it as an insult to our National Pride if several countries in the EU 'got going before us'.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 01:39 PM

To be accurate, Jim, the doubling refers to deaths in care homes, a fair proportion of which won't be Coronavirus deaths. Still a major setback, of course.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 01:09 PM

Just been announced that the UK is set to have the highest number of virus casualties/deaths in Europe - deaths hve more than doublesd in the last seven days
Surely this will end the calls to ease the lock-down - fingers crossed?
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 08:48 AM

That's well worth working on
Buac

On Anti Vienam marches we used to sing

Johnson's in the White House
We Don't think that's the right house
It should be called (the (the prudish sang 'Powder Room', the Scousers, 'shite house'
So take the man away
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: An Buachaill Caol Dubh
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 08:35 AM

Re. Trump's remarkable ideas,

"Now, Briany O'Linn kept an eye on the White House
Where President Trump sits and tweets in this bright house;
"With a shot of Jeyes Fluid," our hero would grin,
"I'll tend to me health..." Obit. Brian O'Linn.

If anyone can think of a better, more inevitable-seeming rhyme for "Whitehouse", he's welcome to the variant. I accept that I can be wrong, and even irresponsible. Gladly.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Apr 20 - 07:26 AM

Nowt wrong with the Fab Four, Jim, and by the two world-class teams I'm sure you mean that in the Shankly (aka God) sense of Liverpool and Liverpool reserves...