BS: UK thread, Politics and political

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 12 May 20 - 08:25 AM

The opposition, who we are told is useless and has no power whatsoever, is now able to cloud the issue with the help of the media.

Precisely. Your argument is hinged on help. On their own they are absolutely useless. That is why they lost the election. Now that was a time when the opposition message was confused.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 12 May 20 - 08:08 AM

Hampshire Police summary

I have been a bit hard on them: they give the date and general location but that is all.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 12 May 20 - 07:59 AM

Hampshire Police have posted about it on their facebook page. However they have given the date and time which seems a bit stupid!

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 12 May 20 - 07:49 AM

There are reports of police stopping people on Southampton Common distributing flyers for a protest meeting about lockdown. I have been sent a copy of the purported poster, but of course the police cannot publish it directly without promoting the event (if it is even genuine and not a figment of the flyposters imagination.)

For what it is worth it is the full of the antivax, 5G and other conspiracies. If I get more evidence it is genuine I will post a version with dates and locations redacted.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 May 20 - 07:44 AM

The opposition, who we are told is useless and has no power whatsoever, is now able to cloud the issue with the help of the media, who made such a good job of demolishing that same opposition before.

Funny old world init. Do those putting these tales about really think that we cannot remember back to pre virus days?

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 May 20 - 06:51 AM

Dunno even about that, Jim. Mr Neame, of Shepherd Neame brewery (which God preserve) was on the radio this morning, and it sounded like he wouldn't want a Tory anywhere near his brewery...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 May 20 - 06:48 AM

“When the business of government becomes limited to populist set pieces, its ranks are purged of doers and populated instead with cheerleaders. This is how we ended up with the current cast of dazed-in-headlights Tory cabinet members.“

A very telling piece from Nesrine Malik in the Guardian - a publication refusing to lie down in the face of the horse-shit of Populism and Right-Wing Extremism.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 May 20 - 06:47 AM

"losing a war on want."
If Tories the in slightest cared about want they'd have done something about the hardship and poverty they and their predecessors have created - far from your being concerned about it, you have always put the interests of private property way above those of the needy - I'm sure nobody here how you denigrated a politician with a conscience for suggesting that survivors of a horendous fire, caused by profiteers cutting safety corners, might be housed in some of the many unused vacant properties in the immediate vicinity of that fire - you used it to make the suggestion that thet politician was unfit for public office
That's what Toryism has always been about
Don't you mean "profit" - which is what this step to soon is
Even Boris the Brainless opposed the pressures of big business now hey have won and he hasn't got a fecking clue where to go
Just go and dig up the news of yesterday's chaos for an example of Government policy
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boris-johnson-london-transport-back-to-work-coronavirus-lockdown-a4436836.html
MORE GOOD WORK
Maybe the Tories should confine themselves to runningg piss-ups in breweries - chaos isn't that important when you're pissed
Good job my arseum
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 May 20 - 06:36 AM

The government tries nightly to befuddle the country with daft little pseudo-technical graphs ("next slide please...") in nice colours, the sort of thing I'd have been shot down for by my science tutors at teacher training college, and vacuous talk of an R number, bouncing up and down its scale like those strong-man things that you hit with a hammer on fairgrounds, as if it's just a sweeping single country-wide thing (as DMcG so ably demolishes). These things are attempts to put a respectable face on gross incompetence. Any day now we'll have Johnson imploring us to "get R done," you'll see. It's disconcerting to see the highly-respectable Chris Whitty squirming unhappily. One day I'll buy his memoirs.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Rain Dog
Date: 12 May 20 - 06:20 AM

Iains I agree about the need to start making plans and have said so previously. At no time have I expressed a wish for the Uk to become a third world country.

Come the next election what will the electorate remember? Well that will probably be another 4 years or so but I imagine they will not remember what people said or didn't say. It is more likely they will remember the loss of lives, the lockdown, the possible loss of jobs, the closure of schools etc etc. Now if they wish to blame anyone for that, I think they might look at those in charge, even if those in charge are not responsible for everything that happens.

DMcG, indeed it was handled very badly. We can only speculate as to the reason why. It does remind of the documentary, I think it was on the BBC, about the Foreign Office when Boris was in charge. There is that element of ' a bull in a china shop' about him at times.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 12 May 20 - 06:02 AM

They needed to be clearer and they should have been clearer.

And, as Keir Starmer pointed out on Monday, they could very easily have been clearer simply by releasing the documents at the same time they made the announcements, rather than having them dribble out over the next few days. That was quite within their control, and they decided not to do so, for whatever reason.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 12 May 20 - 05:51 AM

Raindog These are unprecedented times. The situation is fluid, hardly surprising everyone is not instantly on the same page. It does not help that the media and opposition are using every trick in the book to muddy the message. Absolutely disgusting behavior that will be given pride of place in the next election campaign. Luckily the electorate is not stupid and Labor will pay for their sins with an even greater drubbing come the next election. The longer lockdown goes on the greater the longterm damage to the economy. Being a third world country is not pleasant. Be careful what you wish for.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 12 May 20 - 05:46 AM

I think there is a problem with the 'blue clicky' mechanism that it cannot cope with very long links; as in Iains example it truncates the link part way through and you get "page not found". Then your reader is left with searching through the site to see if they can find what you meant ... which is what I did.

This was a survey of 1300 or so Conservative party members. Hardly an unbiased sample, as Iains acknowledged. It is not even demonstrably representative of regular party voters, never mind of those who voted Conservative in the last election. So the value of the survey is at best questionable.

There is a lot of talk about driving the decisions to slacken off lockdown based on the R_value. I must admit to a nervousness about the way this is being bandied around.   There is not really any such thing. There is a single R value that is fed into fairly primitive models, but I would hope the actual models are more refined than that and recognise that you need a granular approach. Just thinking about where I live the R-value (for Southampton) is not the same as the R-value (for Hampshire), or the R-value (for South East England) or the R value (for England) or the R-value (for the UK). The R-value for Bude is not the same as for Southampton. The R value for England is not the same as Wales or Scotland.   The R-value for care homes is not the same as for hospitals, or for the general population. Moreover, the closer you are to 1, the more these distinctions matter.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Rain Dog
Date: 12 May 20 - 05:34 AM

From your link Iains:

"Yes, the launch of this new phase was very messy. Yes, there are lots of unanswered questions about the policy that should be answered. And, yes, the process of putting it together has been, ConHome hears, shambolic.
But that could doubtless have been said about much of government planning during World War Two. Our sense is that most voters understand that point very well."

Their sense and my sense are not the same. I imagine that even you have to agree that the last couple of days have been handled very badly by the government. They needed to be clearer and they should have been clearer. Let us hope that they get their act together quickly.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 12 May 20 - 05:21 AM

Try this:
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/05/our-snap-survey-over-half-of-our-tory-member-panel-backs-johnsons-plan-a-third-want-a-sweden-style-looser-lockdown.html
There is no point in winning a war on lockdown and subsequently losing a war on want. The branches on the magic money tree are fast depleting.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 May 20 - 05:15 AM

Looks like they changed their mind pretty quicky ARTICLE NOT FOUND
What else is nodding dog conservative site going to say except Our Fuherer is doing a great job?
Nobody know whether to go to work yesterday or Wednesday - they were told not to use public transport yet the tubes where the usual wheeled sardine cans - it's still not safe to congregate and won't be until the experts say it is and Johnson is allowing employers damand their workers return to work is they see fit
Only a moron with , a chauffeur, no family and a death wish would describe that nonsense as "a great job" - it's lethal madness
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Rain Dog
Date: 12 May 20 - 05:13 AM

I clicked on that link you posted Iains:

Article Not Found
We can't find what you were looking for.

Seems in keeping with the last couple of days communication (or lack of communication) from the government.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 12 May 20 - 04:26 AM

What the ruling party supporters think of relaxing lockdown.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/05/our-snap-survey-over-half-of-our-tory-member-panel-backs-johnsons-plan-a-t

Looks like Boris deserves a big pst on the back for getting it just right.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 11 May 20 - 02:32 PM

"forebears"...

If google had voice transcribed as "4 bears"..
at least I'd have noticed that before posting...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 11 May 20 - 02:26 PM

It is not hyperbole to suggest there are tory free market ideologue zealots,
who still have as little regard for the lives of workers
as their Victorian forbears..

They still write us off as cheap disposable and easily replaced navvies and coolies...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 11 May 20 - 09:14 AM

Government offical document: Our Plan to Rebuild

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 11 May 20 - 09:11 AM

I am told today's press conference is being replaced by a Question and Answer session. Whether this is just today or the future plan is not clear.

The press conferences did not throw much light on things, certainly after the first few, but they did show some. I hope they will continue to make the slides available to the public, whether they show them at the meeting or not. For all their many limitations, they are the most solid of the information we get.   The figures for transport over the next few days will be informative, for example.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 08:27 AM

Londoners, thinking today was when they should go back to work, have piled onto tubes and buses
It will be all their fault when the virus count rises - of course !!!!
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 08:07 AM

Another change of mind
Those in essential (to business) work who can't work from home have been reprieved until Wednesday but have been told to avoid using public transport - glad I don't live in London any more
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 May 20 - 07:36 AM

Maybe the guidance for meeting parents could be similar to the guidance given on a sign seen in 1974 in the pub in Broadford, Isle of Skye: "Credit is available for people over 90 as long as they are accompanied by both parents."

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 May 20 - 07:01 AM

Wanna know about governmental confusion? This is from today's Labour List (hardly a mouthpiece of the rabid left):

Boris Johnson urged those not able to work from home to return to their workplaces “this week”, with the understanding being that this meant Monday. And the government still hasn’t finalised its back-to-work guidance, having only consulted trade unions on an earlier draft that was unfinished and heavily criticised. So much for building consensus, as promised on the PM’s first day back. As Ed Miliband tweeted: “If it was about MPs, chief executives or middle class professionals the PM would never have ordered a return to work at 12 hours notice without guidance or clarity about safety”. Even more confusingly, Dominic Raab has said this morning that people are actually being urged to return on Wednesday, not today. The word ‘omnishambles’ comes to mind.

The PM’s statement did not address the main day-to-day concerns of many. He made clear that sunbathing in the park and playing sports with members of our household would be permitted, but whether we can visit family members while distancing was not mentioned. It has now been clarified that you’re allowed to meet parents in an outdoor space (not a garden) with two metres between you, though Raab and No 10 disagree over whether it is one or two parents that can be met at the same time.

The statement was effectively a declaration of class war. Those who can work from home are more likely to be better paid, and they can protect themselves, whereas those in construction and manufacturing must put their lives on the line so that bosses can protect their profits. I wrote in this email two weeks ago: Labour must help to ensure that workers are protected and prioritised, and that the Tories cannot put private wealth ahead of public health while bringing the UK out of lockdown. But that is exactly what the government is doing.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 11 May 20 - 07:00 AM

Oh, and why has 'protect the NHS' been dropped from the slogans, I wonder?
Because the NHS came nowhere near getting swamped and Nightingale hospitals have been stood down,
The name of the game was:
protect the vulnerable
reduce the spread of infection to levels that could be dealt with.without strain on the NHS.

Stopping infection in its tracks is not going to happen without a cure. Thus far there is not one.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 11 May 20 - 06:35 AM

I don't want to know what I should or shouldn't do

Nor does Raab.

Apparently the government advice is you can meet one person. Rabb was asked on the radio if that meant you could meet both parents (assuming social distancing)

Yes, says Raab that's ok.

Immediately the government spokesman clarifies, that you can see both, but not at the same time.

This proves
(1) The message is so confusing even the guy you chose to do almost every daily press conference can't understand it.

(2) The government spokesmen doesn't understand that it does almost nothing whatever to your parents' risk of infection if you see them together for 30 minutes, or one after the other for 30 minutes each even with a gap of a day or two (though the latter might increase your risk if you are out more).

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 06:22 AM

Goverment trurn policy lambased in The Times this morning
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sir-david-spiegelhalter-criticises-ministers-over-failure-to-prioritise-random-covid-19-testing-lzv2ttxsc
The both the statistics and the method of gathring them is described as being flawed and the figures claimed could well be much higher

Apologists - one stop forward - NOW
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 May 20 - 06:16 AM

We need a list in words of one syllable of things we CAN and CAN'T do. I've never seen such a shambles. I don't want to know what I should or shouldn't do, I don't want any "advice" about it and I don't want any "if possibles." Should be easy enough for a government that made such a radiant triumph of brexit... :-)

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 05:39 AM

Reports on the radio say that some of those who have opened up are seeing a rise in cases again
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 05:09 AM

"Other countries are also relaxing their restrictions, so we are not alone in doing so."
Ther countries have progressed far further than Britain in the fight and came ou only when that believed to do so - not on the suck-it-ad-see basis this mob has
The first and worst hit, China, is now offering help to others - lets hope they are taken up enough before Trump makes good his promise of revenge
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 11 May 20 - 04:56 AM

Once again, the government is showing it has not the faintest idea of how infections spread. Raab has been on the radio confusinf things even more this morning and the government has said, by way of clarification:

Mr Raab, asked if someone could meet up with both their parents in a park, told BBC Radio 4: “Well, you could if there's two metres apart.”

But a government source quickly withdrew the statement, telling The Independent: “They can see both parents, but not at the same time – they would have to see them individually.”


Whether an infected person sees two people simultaneously for half an hour, or one after the other for half an hour each (with or without a gap) makes not a jot of difference.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Rain Dog
Date: 11 May 20 - 04:48 AM

Hopefully we will get some clearer idea later this week. I agree that last nights statement was confusing BUT the general drift of relaxing the restrictions with the proviso of implementing them again if need be, is the way to proceed. Other countries are also relaxing their restrictions, so we are not alone in doing so.

Is it safe to go out or not? Well depends on how you judge safety. Personally I am at risk from more cyclists on the pavement and speeding motorists, though there are fewer cars on the road. In the event that I do get knocked down, I will express my disappointment at their not keeping the 2 m safe distance.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 04:17 AM

What happens a year from now will depend entirely on what happens now and what happens now depends entirely depends on the advice the people at risk are given
What was apparent from last night's fiasco was the advice being given was not based on medical considerations but on a calculated risk based on economic considerations - the money men in the cabinet won the day
This is very buch like the military decisions taken during WWI where each foot of land was measured in human lives - the only difference being that the calculated strategies have been replaced by yet another leap in the dark - (Brexit was enough for one lifetime, surely)
My sister in Liverpool summed it up perfectly on the phone last night - "we don't know whether it's safe to go out or not"
I hope Dave's Dr Reid get's to head the tribunal which investigate the behaviour of these prickens
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 11 May 20 - 04:17 AM

That is the second time you have quoted that, Iains. I didn't bother pointing it out last time, but it is not an *article* in the Lancet (which would be subject to detailed assessment before it appeared): it is 'Correspondence', which is not subject to anything like the same scrutiny. In effect, like a letter anywhere, it is the opinion of the author(s), not the result of a formal study. So presenting as 'from the Lancet' is somewhat misleading for the unwary.

He is entitled to his opinion, of course, and as an epidemiologist Professor that opinion carries more weight than yours or mine. But it does not carry more weight than other epidemiologists who disagree.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 May 20 - 04:12 AM

Summary of government advice from yesterday

Hold a chicken in the air
Stick a deckchair up your nose
Fly a jumbo jet
And then bury all your clothes

Spitting image, where are you when we need you?

Mind you. I'm not sure if this lot need caracatures.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 11 May 20 - 03:50 AM

and another expert:
Epidemiologist Professor Johan Giesecke writes in The Lancet…

“… facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.”

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 11 May 20 - 03:07 AM

Troll posts need no moderation if those being trolled ignore them.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 May 20 - 02:55 AM

I watched with horror as Jonson's poison chalice of total confusion to the British people was reflected in the interviews that followed - "We don't know where we stand now" was the message that came bounding back loud and clear
The situation has been ade even worse by the fact that it is to be 'clarified' (if that's the word) in stages throughout the week rather than being given in one clear, understandable message
The interviews with the representatives from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland gave a cler picture of a fragmented 'Disunited' Kingdom - at a time we are told we should - "All pull together" - they made it qite clear they will plough their own individual furrows.
Brexit began the break-up of the U.K. - the pandemic has just delivered the coup-de-grace
Criminal insanity

"Troll posts are still not being moderated."
I think a little leeway is called for here Steve - when someone finds themselves bereft of rational argument a little personal abuse is to be expected with a little mask-slipping
Leave him to dig
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 11 May 20 - 02:21 AM

I had a fairly long ramble on that Andrew Marr comment but decided expressing what I meant would be far too long, so I will stick to the heart of the point.

In Parliament today, under the 'cross examination' of the paper by Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson is likely to make statements that dwarf the confusion of last night's little chat and accelerate the death rate. We will know in something between two and three weeks. If the death rate has risen substantially by then, it will be due to the decisions and statements on these two days. They will not be due to Starmer's interrogation, even though the statements Boris makes will be in direct response to those questions.

The rate will inevitably rise somewhat under any relaxation of lockdown. So let us set an arbitrary definition of 'substantial': I would regard to 33% more than yesterday's number of deaths (465 + 33%) as substantial.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 10 May 20 - 05:52 PM

Oh, and why has 'protect the NHS' been dropped from the slogans, I wonder?

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: DMcG
Date: 10 May 20 - 05:41 PM

But he didn't say 81% would get it, as I read that quotation. He said In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures ... In such scenarios, given an estimatedR0of 2.4, we predict 81% ...

So 81% if the R0 cannot be brought down by control measures. That is quite a different thing to saying 81% will get it.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 10 May 20 - 05:39 PM

I thought some new rules had been brought in during my absence. I don't see much evidence of them being effective as yet.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Iains
Date: 10 May 20 - 04:53 PM

"Northern   Ireland 458   deaths
The republic 1458 deaths"
six counties to 28 you mean
No!
Northern Ireland population 1.882 million
Republic population 4.904 million.

2.6 times the population in the south
3.1 times the death rate.
you are not very good at this are you? It is always best to compare apples with apples. Introducing oranges is but a distraction to try to mask that the argument is lost.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 10 May 20 - 04:21 PM

I am fully aware of the dedication of ICU medical teams. My wife was in the ICU at ST George's Tooting, for some time after surgery for a subdural haematoma, and a nurse was by her bedside 24/7.

I think it will be trial and error for some time to come yet, until a vaccine is available.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 10 May 20 - 03:56 PM

Bonz - we all gotta keep our fingers crossed on that...

Over 30,000 dead..

Intensive Care Doctors surely must have learnt something more positive by now,
from that cruel trial and error experience...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 10 May 20 - 03:47 PM

Looking on the bright side - woefully missing here!!!, there does seem to be a slight upward trend in recoveries.

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 10 May 20 - 03:44 PM

"will attack and smear.."

effin google voice recognition, and small phone screens...

Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 10 May 20 - 03:24 PM

Nigel - Reception are the least controllable in terms of social distancing,
[herding cats is a doddle in comparison...]
and amongst the most likely to be bringing and spreading death into classrooms..

The tory far right hate teachers,
maligning them as commie multicultralist brainwashers of British nationalist's children...

This outright prejudice is behind much of far right tory attitudes towards the teaching profession.

There will be much far right vindictive glee at the prospect of teachers & their families
falling ill and dying,
as a result of callous tory govt reopening plans...

The Mail and others will attack and slur teacher's unions trying to protect their members..

You know this to be true...