BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Royston
Date: 04 Feb 10 - 02:51 AM

Oh, Keith. You can't have that last post. You already removed the migrant HIV from the statistics. The fastest growing group is that of the "locals", and that demographic, overall, is decreasing - as you have pointed out elswhere. I'm not arguing stats about HIV with you, but even you'll agree that one might not have long legs.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 04 Feb 10 - 02:08 AM

A new perspective on the increasing numbers of heterosexuals infected in UK.
For the last decade we have seen a steady rise in those numbers.
But, the population, and therefore the at risk population, has itself not been static.
Due mainly to current and recent immigration the population has been growing at a very much faster rate.
Thus the proportion of heterosexuals who are infected has actually been, and is, in steep decline.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 03 Feb 10 - 01:31 PM

Royston, and Smedley,, Thank you. You'll also find that I posted, 'If you shove me, I'll shove back'..perhaps some of the perceived 'hostilities' toward homosexuals, was somehow misinterpreted by some, when actually it was a rebuttal toward being attacked. Thank you for going back over my posts, and pointing that out.

Respectful Regards,.....(but keeping one eye open, one eye closed, and one eyes...just to see with!)
GfS

Here, just for fun:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-_W18CWypE&feature=related

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 03 Feb 10 - 09:52 AM

Lox, I do not agree with all your statements.

"We know that HIV is overwhemingly a heterosexual disease."
Yes, but only in Africa

"We know that in the UK it is proportionately the fastest growing disease (500%)"
Not meaningful in view of the fact that 500% only takes it from infinitesimal to miniscule.

"We know that the increase in the rate of growth is not linear."
It is linear. The rate of new cases has gone from around zero to a steady value (hence linear) that is still in the very rare disease category.

"We know that anal sex is only about twice as efficient in transmitting HIV as vagingal sex"
I do not accept your interpretation of those research results.

"We know that 95% of homosexual men have no HIV"
True.

"The evidence does not support your assertion that Homosexuality is a more unhelthy lifestyle."
Debateable

"There is evidence that homosexuals currently suffer disproportionately, but this is not the same thing as saying that homosexuality is unhealthy."
Agree

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 07:59 PM

""You just can't bring yourself around, that everyone is not as much as a loser, as you..therefore, everybody else is bullshitting. Get a life!""

Got one thanks, and a bloody good one too!

And this loser doesn't need to find someone to despise, denigrate, and deprive of humanity, and human rights, in order to be able to live with himself.

I despise only those who can't feel whole unless they are kicking somebody they classify as inferior.

I wouldn't want your idea of a life, if it came with green stamps, so crawl back under your stone, and wait for a cockroach to get too near.

That'll be much more your mark.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: mousethief
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 07:55 PM

Lox, you forgot:

4. Rounding homosexuals up (for their own good) against their will and sequestering them in quarantine (for their own good).

O..O
=o=

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: akenaton
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 06:34 PM

Shhhh!

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Smedley
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 03:42 PM

I don't see speaking up for equality of treatment as a "gay agenda". It seems a perverse way to use the word "agenda".

said mousethief.

----------------------------------

Not sure I do, really, but we both know somebody who will.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Lox
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 03:07 PM

Ake,

If you were paying attention you would have noted that the debate has moved on significantly.

I don't think you'll be needing to play dead at this rate as brain death has very clearly set in.

We know that HIV is overwhemingly a heterosexual disease.

We know that in the UK it is proportionately the fastest growing disease (500%)

We know that the increase in the rate of growth is not linear.

We know that anal sex is only about twice as efficient in transmitting HIV as vagingal sex

We know that 95% of homosexual men have no HIV

The evidence does not support your assertion that Homosexuality is a more unhelthy lifestyle.

There is evidence that homosexuals currently suffer disproportionately, but this is not the same thing as saying that homosexuality is unhealthy.

If by your reckoning, high numbers of STI infections are evidence of unhealthy sexuality, then we must also conclude that heterosexual sex is an unhealthy lifestyle for young women, as 10% suffer from chlamydia, and they are also the worst infected by ghonnorhea, syphilis and HPV.

HPV kills women indirectly just as HIV kills everyone indirectly.


Lets not forget what you have been asserting.

1. Homosexsuals are a scourge
2. homosexuals are closet paedophiles
3. homosexuality is unhealthy.


There is only one unhealthy thing on here and it remains your obsession.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: akenaton
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 02:37 PM

The opposition have marched on to the next battle.

Just lie down a play "dead"....when it gets dark, you can all go home.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: mousethief
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 02:08 PM

I don't see speaking up for equality of treatment as a "gay agenda". It seems a perverse way to use the word "agenda".

O..O
=o=

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Smedley
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 04:24 AM

In case misinterpretation ensues, the 'though' in the brackets in my second para should read 'those'.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Royston
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 04:15 AM

GfS

I owe you an apology: I am sorry for calling you a liar on the issue of your gender and the descriptions you gave us of your family life.

I can see now that the belief a few of us came to have, that you were claiming to be a woman, came from a misreading of some of your posts around 11 Jan 04:32pm. Your response to the suggestion didn't scotch the rumour, but that's still my fault.

As I went back and read all that stuff again, I was still of the view that for someone with such an apparently happy life, you have some serious hate-issues, a superiority complex and a really nasty judgmental side.

I don't understand how all that emerges from such contented happiness but I don't believe you lie, to us.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Smedley
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 04:08 AM

On the vexed question of teaching, the 'homosexual agenda' and young people, a few thoughts.....

In British schools today, there are some teachers in some schools who discuss sexuality within an 'equal rights' framework that GfS would contest. Plenty of other schools (especially though that operate within a religious framework - which in the UK are called 'faith schools') do not do this.
   
The peer-group culture in schools (of all types) is often viciously anti-gay - lots of bullying that ranges from name-calling to physical attacks; plenty of young gay people in the UK still commit suicide while at school.

Children do not just learn at schools, of course. A child might get the equal rights agenda from a liberal teacher then go home to a very conservative household. (Or vice versa.) Teachers are not all-powerful (although some of them think they are!).

I shouldn't say 'they', really, I should say 'we', as I myself work in education, though at university level, not in schools. So I teach adults (albeit mostly young ones). Depending on the theme or topic of the class, if issues relating to homosexuality are relevant, I make no secret of my identity and the views that I hold. To me, it is honest to do so, as it allows students to filter what I say through the context of who I am. Among other things, I see this as important and supportive for my gay students and instructive for my non-gay students.

I admire the fortitude and bravery of teachers (whether ther are gay, straight or whatever) who discuss these things at school with students younger than university age. The culture of anti-gay prejudice in schools is such that their task is unenviably difficult - I couldn't do it myself.

Am I delivering a 'homosexual agenda' ? Quite possibly.
Are there other educators delivering a 'homophobic agenda' ? Quite possibly.
Is there a range of more or less 'neutral' positions that lie between the two ? Definitely.
Should I aim to adopt one of those 'neutral' stances ? Well that's a political and personal choice, and I've made mine.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 01:05 AM

.......lookin' out for you!

Naw, I watch him occasionally. Oberman, I used to watch, but he was getting ridiculous. Mathews is a lunatic...but in fairness, I watch both sides, and am impartial to both, to a large degree. I more often than not, watch them to check out the bullshit their feeding the American public...but, if I want actual news, I have other sources.

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Ebbie
Date: 02 Feb 10 - 12:58 AM

Due to someone's importuning I have watched a dozen Bill O'Reilly YouTube videos tonight. Interestingly, GfS is sounding more and more like O'Reilly. Fascinating.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 10:34 PM

Don T: "And it really believes Ronny Raygun was listening.

BOY OH BOY Does it need help!"

One of my parents, who was a department heads, at that hotel, was on the roof with him. Sit on it Ralphie!

You just can't bring yourself around, that everyone is not as much as a loser, as you..therefore, everybody else is bullshitting. Get a life!

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don Firth
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 07:39 PM

". . . I don't want the homosexual agenda, teaching our kids. Nor even the heterosexuals, bringing in their agenda, in the early primary grades."

And your verifiable evidence, GfS, that anyone is actually attempting to do this?

And, no, a link to some conservative/religious "protect the family" web site will not do.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 07:02 PM

""It's only because the homosexuals, on here, have a need to justify their position""

If it were only the homosexuals on here that opposed you, it would, I believe, be a pretty even contest.

And in case you have any deep insight into my mental state, or gender orientation, let me save you from making an even bigger fool of yourself (as if THAT were possible).

I have been married for forty five years, to the love of my life, who has presented me with two fine upright children, who have, between them, further enriched me with five healthy, vigorous, grandchildren, who absolutely love their kind old grandad (their words, not mine).

So, unlike yourself, I have no personal axe to grind, when I say that I want to see gay couples have exactly the same opportunities for a loving, caring, relationship, with which I have been blessed.

Sex was never a huge part of my marriage, especially with advancing age and medical issues, and I don't believe that it plays any greater part in loving gay relationships.

I could never understand this preoccupation of homophobes with the sexual activities of gays, which they erroneously see as the basis for all gay relationships (absolute bunk, of course).

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 06:47 PM

""You know, Back when he was Governor of California, we were having a three day folk and rock festival, in a park, in L.A., he was staying at a hotel across the street from the park, and was on the roof, of the hotel, listening and watching the concert below. When we(two of us) were on. I had a moment on the mic, where I went into a 'little talk'. During that talk, I addressed him, because I knew he was there(reliable source in the hotel), and spoke to him about his policies, and priorities, and their effect on us 'peons'. To tell you the absolute truth, I was stellar, even you would have been proud!! No shit! I was not a defiant jerk off, like most 'protesters', but addressed him wonderfully. I thought he was wrong, about a few things, and a few things he stood for.......but nonetheless, even a broken clock is right...twice a day!!!.............therefore:""

Homophobia, a belief that homosexuality can be cured, bigotry, a dichotomy of identity which prevents it from being sure of its own gender, and now megalomania and delusions of grandeur. And it really believes Ronny Raygun was listening.

BOY OH BOY Does it need help!

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 06:36 PM

""If you PMd me, I would look up the met. office 24 hour forecast for your area, and tell you it was the most likely outcome based on the evidence available and expert opinion.
Royston would tell you that rain was not coming, and anyone who said it was, was a rainphobe bigot and a liar.""

Your bad example, mate, because on this thread Royston says the rain is coming, and you are the one ignoring past experience, in favour of predictions of the future which are at best educated guesses.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: mousethief
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 05:15 PM

What pray tell is the homosexual agenda? Answers on a postcard.

O..O
=o=

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 04:53 PM

Don: "Nothing dogmatic or far-out about my political position, GfS. I believe I am pretty much in the same position as Benjamin Disraeli, who said, "I am a fiscal conservative, but a social liberal."

Fiscal conservative..hmmm.....what do you think of Obama?

As so far as, "I do not believe that anyone should be allowed to go into other peoples' bedrooms and try to tell them what they can and cannot do. This, of course, in the case of consenting adults."

And while in agreement with you on that one too, I don't want the homosexual agenda, teaching our kids. Nor even the heterosexuals, bringing in their agenda, in the early primary grades. Fair enough?

Smeds had nothing to say of any substance, so we'll let that slide.

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: mousethief
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 04:21 PM

The one person I would vote for for president with no qualms in Dennis Kucinich, but he, of course, has been systematically excluded from candidacy by the Democratic Party because he has proven during his political career that he is a man of integrity.

Maybe. I'd say he's proven --or at least given very good reason to believe -- he's so far left he can't win in the generals. At least can't win the center and right-of center center, which are necessary to win 1600 PA.

O..O
=o=

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don Firth
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 01:59 PM

Nothing dogmatic or far-out about my political position, GfS. I believe I am pretty much in the same position as Benjamin Disraeli, who said, "I am a fiscal conservative, but a social liberal." And unlike a few others I could point out around here, I am perfectly willing to revise my positions on various issues if I encounter new and valid information, and/or if someone can give me a good and sufficient reason why I should do so.

It's called "having an open mind." You really ought to try it sometime.

I am not a member of any political party, although I tend to vote Democrat, all too often because the Dems represent the lesser of two evils. The one person I would vote for for president with no qualms in Dennis Kucinich, but he, of course, has been systematically excluded from candidacy by the Democratic Party because he has proven during his political career that he is a man of integrity. Also, I agree with the platform that he enunciated.

No, to the goose-stepping arch-conservative, I may be so far out that I'm no longer in the ball park, but I'm right in there shoulder to shoulder with most Americans who were born with a brain, are in the habit of using it, and feel that the benefits of living in a democratic society should be shared by everyone, not just those who are wealthy enough or influential enough to afford it.

I pay my taxes because I feel that that is one of the prices of living in a civilized society. But along with a lot of other people, I don't see that I'm getting my money's worth.

And one of the uncivilized parts of this society is that it denies freedoms and benefits to certain specific members of society because they don't conform to what the self-appointed arbiters of personal behavior feel is proper—even though what they do has no effect whatsoever on the lives of others.

I do not believe that anyone should be allowed to go into other peoples' bedrooms and try to tell them what they can and cannot do. This, of course, in the case of consenting adults.

If that makes me some sort of far-out, raving "liberal" in your mind, then—so be it! I can definitely live with that!

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Lox
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 01:55 PM

Keith,

I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was simply pointing out that the graph, taken over a 20-30 year peiod, is not linear.

The anomaly in the original line turned out not to be a flash in the pan, but a sustained change of circumstances.

On that basis, we cannot make a claim, based on past experience, that the growth rates among hetero's will continue to grow in a consistently linear fashion.

It may happen that way, but it could also be the case, based on past form, that as overall numbers increase, that growth rates also increase.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Smedley
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 04:53 AM

Oh, and I would also like to welcome this thread to its fourth month on earth.

(Well, *mostly* on earth.)

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Smedley
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 04:52 AM

If there were such things as Heaven and Hell, I should imagine Reagan headed in the *other* direction to the one where he might 'meet God'.

As for 'the homosexuals', as I've noted before I think I'm the only one who has identified as such in here. I might be overweight, but I'm not plural. GfS needs the scary (to him) image of a multitudinous phalanx of homos to stoke the flames of his paranoia. (I keep thinking The Homosexuals would be a great name for a band, although in the back of my mind I think that idea was already taken.)

And is it a 'minority' who think "homosexuality" is wonderful ? Globally, yes. But then you should never use 'sales figures' as an indicator of anything truly meaningful, as that would mean 'Avatar' was the best film ever made and Taylor Swift is the major musical talent of our era.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 03:16 AM

Lox, I can not tell you why the rate of new hetero cases went up.
Looking at the table for partner exposure, the increase was in heterosexual exposur for them.
Maybe the new dangerous partners were the newly arrived cases.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 01 Feb 10 - 01:30 AM

Don: "......and he has a very warped idea of what liberalism amounts to, as is the case with most conservatives--which apparently includes you,....."

No Don, I'm not a flaming conservative, but a little more to the center, or where ever I can find truth in common sense and common sense in the truth! To you, and understandably so, it must seem to the right...umm...maybe super far right, but its not really...actually, when I think about it, I think some of your dogmatic political mindset, is way out in left field,..so far out, that it's not even in the ballpark....but somewhere out there where you still catch flies.   <<<<(hey, that was a good line..just made it up..just for you.) Shit! You're an inspiration!!!

As long as we're at it,..". By the way, GfS, in your last post, you seem to be trying to imply that those who disagree with you must, of necessity, be homosexual. That would come as a helluva surprise to my wife!! Very disingenuous of you, GfS!"


GfS: "Got any other nasty little secrets???", he grins a mischievous grin, looks slightly upwards, rolling then locking his eyes at about a 10 o'clock position, scuffs the floor, with the sole of the shoe, crossing legs, at the shins, and stabbing the floor with his foot as he comes to rest, and plunges his hands deep into his pocket, purses his lips, then grins.

Oh my Gosh, I'm getting carried away!..Jeez, I told you that you were an inspiration!

Oh, and true to tell, I was told, by someone on the roof, that he WAS listening. I doubt if it made much difference..maybe till he died, and met God, who must have said, "Ronnie Babie, at least you can't say, you weren't told!"

Kiss the Wife,
GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don Firth
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 10:28 PM

Nice you got a chance to bend Reagan's ear, GfS, but let's face it, he's not exactly an authority on political science, and he has a very warped idea of what liberalism amounts to, as is the case with most conservatives--which apparently includes you, or at least in a lot of your beliefs. But president or not, Ronald Reagan was never the sharpest knife in the drawer. Smarter than Bush, but still not quite up to the level of the average Yorkshire terrier.

I wouldn't quote him if I were you. Bad for your image!

By the way, GfS, in your last post, you seem to be trying to imply that those who disagree with you must, of necessity, be homosexual. That would come as a helluva surprise to my wife!! Very disingenuous of you, GfS!

Just for the novelty of it, you might try that "grow up" prescription yourself.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 09:34 PM

Royston: "You are nothing more than a hate-filled liar. You have no credibility here. Do you still profess yourself a Christian? How does your behaviour here sit with your conscience?"

Liar?? ..That's a convenient, but false accusation. That's what you do, when you can't carry on a mature discussion, to possibly discover something about yourself, ..that should at least be of interest to you!

Christian?? I don't believe I 'professed' to be one, on here. Besides, what do you have against Christians?? There law hinges on "Do unto others, as you would have them do unto you."..I'm not getting a hint of 'bigotry' in there, am I?

I have no problem with my conscience, at all. Funny, you should project that!

The weak accuse others of their own motives!
                                          Me...(Its quotable, too)

Don: "The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity." This in response to student protests on college campuses during his tenure as California governor."

You know, Back when he was Governor of California, we were having a three day folk and rock festival, in a park, in L.A., he was staying at a hotel across the street from the park, and was on the roof, of the hotel, listening and watching the concert below. When we(two of us) were on. I had a moment on the mic, where I went into a 'little talk'. During that talk, I addressed him, because I knew he was there(reliable source in the hotel), and spoke to him about his policies, and priorities, and their effect on us 'peons'. To tell you the absolute truth, I was stellar, even you would have been proud!! No shit! I was not a defiant jerk off, like most 'protesters', but addressed him wonderfully. I thought he was wrong, about a few things, and a few things he stood for.......but nonetheless, even a broken clock is right...twice a day!!!.............therefore:

"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so."

Royston:(again), "You and Ake are still in a minority of two on the social and ethical questions that this discussion is actually about."

Minority, on here?...Yes, but only on here. You are a huge minority, in the real world!.. It's only because the homosexuals, on here, have a need to justify their position.......and it takes all of you to do that, and still fail!!........(Now watch some Bozo start posting stats, which are slanted, as per there source)! ...Save you the trouble, people who think homosexuality is wonderful are in the minority!.....Gosh, ever wonder why?...Hint: It's not just to pick on you!

Oh, and by the way, don't hate you....grow up!

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don Firth
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 07:02 PM

Yup. He said,

"Approximately 80 percent of our air pollution stems from hydrocarbons released by vegetation, so let's not go overboard in setting and enforcing tough emission standards from man-made sources."

In high school biology classes, I always heard that vegetation takes up carbon dioxide and releases oxygen. (I always thought that was a good thing. . . .)

He also said,

"The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity." This in response to student protests on college campuses during his tenure as California governor.

Could there be a connection?

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: mousethief
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 06:44 PM

Didn't Reagan also think that trees cause acid rain?

O..O
=o=

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don Firth
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 06:14 PM

"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so."
                                                                                                                                    —Ronald Reagan

He also said: "No, no! On the PAPER, Bonzo!"

(I'm so impressed!)

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Royston
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 05:20 PM

GfS,

Neither Keith nor I are "the last word" in anything.

The things on which we agree are in black and white a day or so ago. As are the things on which we disagree or that we agree to disagree on.

You and Ake are still in a minority of two on the social and ethical questions that this discussion is actually about.

Moreover, you are both self-confessed homophobes, Ake is as thick as two short planks (just the other day he "proved" that HIV affects gay and straight Africans in equal measure - demolishing all your argumemts, both of you) and you have been busted as a liar. Not just accused, or suspected of lying, but exposed as an out and out liar. Exposed as a liar on matters as fundamental as your gender and the life experiences you claim to have and that you put forward as support for and validation of your opinions.

You are nothing more than a hate-filled liar. You have no credibility here. Do you still profess yourself a Christian? How does your behaviour here sit with your conscience?

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 04:57 PM

Smeds: "You will note that Ake does not thank GfS for either information or fair play. Way to go, Akie baby."

I don't require any thank-yous for telling the truth. When I posted to Royston: "Keith, I know that nobody takes Ake seriously, but are you going to let his co-opting of you stand unchallenged? I kind of hope you don't."

Here's a quote from one of our Presidents..it is so apropos:

'The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.'

Hat's off to the truth!
GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Royston
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 04:23 PM

Keith: "Royston would tell you that rain was not coming, and anyone who said it was, was a rainphobe bigot and a liar."

Hehe, actually I would argue for greater understanding of the rain and for a general education program on the effective use of umbrellas to prevent a dangerous epidemic of dampness. ;-p

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Lox
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 04:16 PM

Keith

nonetheless my observation still stands.

The current line of growth, for whatever reason you may like to give, is a deviation from the previous reality which is represented by a flat line running along the x axis.

That represents a fundamental change.

From no growth to growth is a matter irrespective of the exact nature of the previous trend.

It was not the same as the trend which exists now.

And the trend which exists now could also change, and given the circumstances previously considered in this thread, for example in relation to sexual health risks among young women, and in relation to the steadily rising overall number of infections, this seems pretty likely.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 03:38 PM

I think that is an artefact Lox.
If you extrapolate the line of best fit back you would reach a zero point aound 1998.
AIDS did exist before that but in that period the numbers were so tiny that trends can not be identified.
If you throw a dice 600 times, you would get very close to 100 sixes.
Throw it 6 times and you could get anything between 0 and 6 hits.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Lox
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 03:04 PM

Keith

If you divide the graph in two you see that up until a few years ago, the graph was pretty much horizontal for at least a decade.

Then in about 2003 or thereabouts it changed direction and started climbing.

Since it changed direction, it can be said that the new direction has been pretty linear so far.

However, if you look at the graph as a whole you see that it is a dog leg, with a significant change of direction happening that has caused the 500% increase.

The whole graph in its entirety going back over the last couple of decades is NOT linear.

You are a physicist and you will therefore be aware that the more variables there are in a given situation, the more unlikely it is that smooth graphs will be derived from observations of reality.

There are so many factors to consider in this issue that we can only comment on general trends.

In this case, the general trend was flat, and then it changed recently to one of sustained growth.

What does that change signify, why did it happen and can it happen again?

If we had made predictions in 2003 about what was going to happen next based on what had happened before, we would have said that hetero infection would carry on on a horizontal trajectory.

We would have been wrong.

It follows that we can't predict a consitent linearity to the growth in hetero infections based on a limited sample from 2003 onwards.

We have to acknowledge that if the graph has radically changed in nature before, then iit could do it again.

The whole graph has not been linear, and we cannot say with any confidence whether there wiill be an epidemic in 140 years or 14.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 08:18 AM

If you PMd me, I would look up the met. office 24 hour forecast for your area, and tell you it was the most likely outcome based on the evidence available and expert opinion.
Royston would tell you that rain was not coming, and anyone who said it was, was a rainphobe bigot and a liar.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 07:55 AM

Don, you have chosen a bad example with swine flu.
It spread from Mexico to every country on Earth in a couple of weeks!
There was not time to properly establish its mortality. It was not incompetence.
It was known to be a particular threat to young, healthy people and a wrong decision could have been a catastrophe for humanity.

You are obviously right that the future can not yet be predicted.
In any one field, however, some people have a better idea what is going on than others. People with access to all the knowledge that exists and with a lifetime of professional experience working at the highest level in that field.

If you need to know if it will rain tomorow, do you look at the weather forecast or PM Royston?

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 05:42 AM

""It is pointless speculating about a possible, completely unknown future. That would be Science Fiction. Scientists are working in the real world. That is what I have been posting about.

Remember, they have been wrong about this already. For a long time it seemed obvious (O.B.Vious !)that a heterosexual epidemic would happen in the West. That lesson has now been learned.""

You are making my point for me Keith, and I am duly grateful.

WHO, and UNAID are speculating about the future, and it is science fiction.

If they are no more inaccurate than were their predictions on swine flu, it could be disastrous. These organisations do have a past record of under, and over, estimating the effect of diseases.

You support, on the basis of their predictions, the view that nothing will change. That is the triumph of hope over experience.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Royston
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 04:57 AM

GfS, every argument you answer shit for brains have put up for your nasty and harmful desires to be vile toward people have been demolished.

It's not about 'the figures', it's about people and how you treat them. I can see now that Keith's argument is just about the academic value of 'the figures' and I can respect that for its own worth.

The only people who agree with your opinions towards gay people and towards HIV are, well, you and Ake.

Keith, I can see that you and I might be agree on a lot of things. I would hold you in higher regard if, when you joined a debate like this one, you would say something like 'my opinion on the subject is......but I disagree with......and am insure about.......but I don't think figures x, y and z are being used properly.

I would thank you for that honesty and fairness on any day of the week.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 02:41 AM

Royston, if you thanked me for information and playing fair too, that would cancel out AKE's endorsement.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 02:36 AM

Donuel, those DC stats are frightening.
Is there a lot of injecting going on their?
The US stats are very interesting. If you separate out high risk heterosexuals, (partners who inject or are bisexual) heterosexuals disappear from the AIDS stats altogether!

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 02:32 AM

DON T "And yet you see no possibility of any similar occurence with HIV.
What a very strange "scientist" you are."

WE do see a lot of genetic variability in HIV. There are many groups within HIV 1 and there is HIV 2.
If the virus changes dratically, things might change and we could have another discussion.
It is pointless speculating about a possible, completely unknown future. That would be Science Fiction. Scientists are working in the real world. That is what I have been posting about.

Remember, they have been wrong about this already. For a long time it seemed obvious (O.B.Vious !)that a heterosexual epidemic would happen in the West. That lesson has now been learned.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 02:24 AM

Lox, a linear progression does not mean no rise.
A mathematically perfect one (y=mx+c) would give an identical increase for each time period.
Real life situations are never exactly perfect, but it is remarkable how good this one is.
The points are closely packed around a line of best fit with an annual increase of about 120.

I am open to challenge on everything I say, but I would be surprised if anyone can shoot me down on this one.
That is a linear rise.
Of course it could change, become exponential or reverse.
We can only look at the evidence and speculate.
WHO and UNAIDS have done that and we have seen their conclusions.

Subject: RE: BS: Death penalty for homosexuality?
From: Smedley
Date: 31 Jan 10 - 02:09 AM

You will note that Ake does not thank GfS for either information or fair play. Way to go, Akie baby.