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BS: Popular Views on Obama
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 08 Mar 08 - 01:12 PM Representative Steve King has a popular view on Obama! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 08 Mar 08 - 02:11 PM So do 48% of the voters of Wyoming: Obama 1,816 61% 0 Clinton 1,110 38% 0 Gee--mebbe them folks out in the Wilde West know something about character. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Little Hawk Date: 08 Mar 08 - 02:21 PM I have that same general impression...that Obama is a better human being (in the sense of his character) than Hillary Clinton is, and that's why I favour him over her. I do think she's very smart and capable, but I also think that of Obama. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: GUEST,Guest Date: 08 Mar 08 - 02:23 PM Amos, we have now all seen through your 'the people/voters/pundits who agree with me are brilliant' routine. In reality, your opinions have nothing to do with Western voters' ability to read the character of politicians. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Little Hawk Date: 08 Mar 08 - 02:36 PM But, GG, it's normal human nature to believe that 'the people/voters/pundits who agree with me are brilliant'. ;-) We all do that. It's a universal presumption. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 08 Mar 08 - 03:35 PM Oh, Gigi, my dearest sparring partner, you have gone and slapped me ol' wrist and popped me bubble. I don't think our friendship will ever be the same after this heartless cruelty on your part. It...well, it hurts. Ah, well. What is life, but endless change? Sigh. Sniff. I promise you, I will get over this... A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 08 Mar 08 - 04:47 PM Actually, we're into caucuses again. Caucuses, I think, explain why the Democratic party keeps nominating candidates who can't win in the general election. In Ohio media pundits were laughing that Hillary carried the day due to a bunch of Archie Bunkers. And she did. But in the general election, who will the Archie Bunkers vote for, Obama or McCain? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Charley Noble Date: 08 Mar 08 - 07:27 PM Riginslinger- Is this the statement from Rep. Steve King that so excites you: "I don't want to disparage anyone because of their, their race, their ethnicity, their name - whatever their religion their father, father might have been," King said just before doing just that. "And I will tell you that, if he is elected president, then the, the radical Islamists, the, the al-Qaida, and the radical Islamists and their supporters, will be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11." "It does matter, his middle name does matter. It matters because they read a meaning into that in the rest of the world, it has a special meaning to them. They will be dancing in the streets because of his middle name. They will be dancing in the streets because of who his father was and because of his posture that says: Pull out of the Middle East and pull out of this conflict." Now my father had a hell of a tough time delivering milk during World War 2, given that his first name was "Adolph." He survived but not without some close scrutiny thanks to some overly zealous townspeople who reported him to the FBI. I think Rep. King's appeal to the Nazi in us all should be rejected by all the Presidential candidates. It's straight out of the Joe McCarthy hate book. He should be so ashamed. Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: McGrath of Harlow Date: 08 Mar 08 - 08:09 PM Well, Obama has got Lake Wobegon on board anyway. Here's what Garrison Keillor wrote to Obama a few days ago: "I'm happy to support your candidacy, which is so full of promise for our country. Seven years of a failed presidency is a depressing thing, and the country is pressing for a change and looking for someone with clear vision who is determined to break through the rhetorical logjam and find sensible ways to move our country forward. That's you, friend. "I can't think of a happier prospect for next January than to see you and your wife and children stepping out on the platform in front of the Capitol for the inauguration. The sight of this will bring to an end a long sour chapter in our history. It will be an enormous moment. And of course it will be exciting to have a president who can speak with grace and power to the American people. Your campaign is a great tonic for America and that's why so many young people are excited about it. I congratulate you on your awesome achievement so far and pledge my support toward victory in November." And here's Obama's response: "I've been entertained and inspired by Garrison Keillor's work through the years. His tales of life in Lake Wobegon tell the story of life in quintessential middle America. I'm honored to have his support and, as president, I will wake up every day thinking about how I can help make life better in places like Lake Wobegon all across the country." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 08 Mar 08 - 10:39 PM Charley - I didn't say Steve King's comments excited me. I merely pointed out that they were a popular view. They aren't my view, but we seem to be hearing more and more of it as the campaign goes along. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 09 Mar 08 - 01:23 AM King is a bit of a fool. Knowing a "Hussein" is leading America will possibly relax some of the tensions underlying the Arab community at large concerning the United States, but why would it make anyone dance? The proposition is sheer hyperbole, or panic mongering, or something. The whole point of Obamas campaign is to change the persistant dysfunctional patterns of government. One of those patterns is writhing around spewing hate-based weird irrational propositions like this one. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 09 Mar 08 - 01:25 AM By the way -- Obama did not just win in Wyoming. He won by something like 60-45, with turnouts on the order of five times what was expected. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 09 Mar 08 - 05:38 PM BONNEY LAKE, Pierce County Ñ Casey Knowles didn't much like a recent campaign commercial for Hillary Rodham Clinton Ñ even though she's in it. After all, the Bonney Lake 17-year-old is a big Barack Obama supporter. "What I don't like about the ad is its fear-mongering," Knowles told "Good Morning America Weekend Edition" today. "I think it's a cheap hit to take. I really prefer Obama's message of looking forward to a bright future." The well-known Clinton ad aired in Texas before last week's vote and implied a lack of experience on Obama's part. It showed an exterior of a Colonial-style home and stock footage of then-8-year-old Knowles sleeping in bed. A narrator describes a phone ringing in the White House: "It's 3 a.m. and your children are safely asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?" Clinton won the Texas primary 51 percent to 47 percent. Knowles said she didn't see the ad until Jon Stewart lampooned it Thursday on "The Daily Show." Her brother noticed it was her, and the family replayed the commercial on their digital recorder to be sure. "They were parodying this ad, kind of poking fun at it," Knowles said. "My brother was like, 'Is that Casey?' And we just erupted. Sure enough, it's me." The file footage was originally shot for a railroad company advertisement. The Clinton campaign bought it from Getty Images. Knowles, a senior at Bonney Lake High School who turns 18 next month, has been campaigning for Obama. She attended his rally at Seattle's KeyArena on Feb. 8. Her mother, Pam, told The News Tribune that Casey cried and trembled after shaking the candidate's hand. The next day, she was a Democratic precinct captain for the state's caucuses. If she plays her cards right, she could go to the national convention. Not to mention that she could be in another ad. After her identity became known, Obama's campaign contacted her. "I mentioned that we should make a counter ad, me and Obama, against Hillary," she said. "They thought that was really funny. They actually might take me up on it." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 09 Mar 08 - 05:52 PM "CHEYENNE, WYO -- . -- In a sparsely populated state that unexpectedly found itself at the center of the Democratic political universe this week, Sen. Barack Obama handily beat Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in caucuses Saturday. The victory gave a psychological lift to a campaign that had had an uncharacteristically difficult week. Obama bested Clinton in Wyoming with 61% of the vote to her 38%, giving him seven delegates and her five. With Clinton's resurgence last week -- thanks to wins in the Ohio and Texas primaries -- the fight for every delegate has become intense, making Wyoming a player for the first time in years. The fight now moves to Mississippi, which holds its primary Tuesday, and delegate-rich Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22. Given the heightened acrimony between the two campaigns, that seems like a lifetime away. Obama, with 1,578 delegates, is roughly 100 ahead of Clinton, according to the Associated Press tally. To become the party's nominee, a candidate needs 2,025 delegates."... LA Times |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 09 Mar 08 - 09:17 PM The election of Congressman Bill Foster in Illinois brings one more super-delegate to the Obama march. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 09 Mar 08 - 11:55 PM "Last Saturday a political "earthquake" struck in the ex-urban Republican leaning 14th Congressional District of Illinois. Democrat Bill Foster won the special election to replace retired former House Speaker Dennis Hastert who had represented the district for two decades. The district voted heavily for George Bush both in 2000 and 2004. Hastert was never reelected by less than 64%. Senator John McCain campaigned aggressively for the Republican candidate Jim Oberweis. Comments Buzz up! on Yahoo! Yet Democrat Foster won a convincing 53% to 47% victory. How is that relevant to Barack Obama? Because Foster choose to link his candidacy directly to Obama. His literature was full of Obama. And the closing TV ad of the campaign was Barack Obama asking the people of the Republican 14th District to support Democrat Foster and his agenda for change in Washington. That message attracted independents and many Republicans. And the spirit of Obama's own campaign helped energize Democrats to volunteer and turnout to vote for Foster. My wife, Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, and I spent Saturday going door-to-door asking people to get out and vote for Foster. At door after door people talked about the need for change - their readiness to support Foster - and their support for Obama. Obama's effect on the Foster race is emblematic of why Democratic Super Delegates are beginning to break for Obama. Not only is Obama the most electable Democratic candidate for President this fall, he's also the candidate that will help elect more Democrats to the House and Senate. And the effect the presidential candidate has on House and Senate races - as well as races for State Legislature - will be a big factor in determining who Super Delegates support."... Robert Creamer, writing in The Huffington Post |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 10 Mar 08 - 10:22 AM Roger COhen, a Times columnist, writes reflectively: "...If I was to sum up this presidential race, I'd say: "It's the generations, stupid." An American generation under 45 has glimpsed an interconnected world beyond race and tribe. They know its attainment will be elusive but, after a bitter season, they feel summoned by what Lincoln called "the better angels of our nature." And, speaking of experience, they know Lincoln came to the presidency with all of two years in Congress behind him, and a failed Senate campaign. Looking out from Kenya, where he mediated an end to the tribal violence, Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary general, told me: "I think an Obama presidency would be inspirational, an incredible development in the world." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 10 Mar 08 - 02:58 PM Obama is to travel today to Mississippi, where he is leading in polls ahead of tomorrow's primary. Clinton (N.Y.) will campaign in Pennsylvania, which will vote on April 22. Still reeling from Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas, Obama's camp sent out a memo to supporters titled "Doing Whatever It Takes to Win." It characterized Clinton's strategy for victory as "tearing Barack Obama down" and said her campaign "should stop telling the American people things that they know aren't true." With both candidates settling in for a protracted battle that appears certain to drag on past Pennsylvania, Clinton's campaign continued to hit Obama over comments from Harvard professor Samantha Power, who resigned from his campaign Friday after being quoted calling Clinton a "monster." Power had also suggested that Obama's proposal on Iraq, calling for troops to be brought home in the first 16 months he is in office, was a campaign plan by which he would not be bound if he were elected. "Once again, it looks like Senator Obama is telling voters one thing while his campaign says those words should not be mistaken for serious action," a memo from the Clinton campaign read. With Obama holding an advantage of about 140 pledged convention delegates over Clinton, his allies argued strenuously that the outcome of the contest should be determined by delegates awarded to winners of primaries or caucuses, and not by the 796 Democratic superdelegates. Former Senate majority leader Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.), a co-chair of the Obama campaign, said it would be a "travesty" if Obama maintains his lead among pledged delegates but an advantage among superdelegates allows Clinton to win the nomination. "I don't see how we could possibly do anything other than respect the will of the people who have voted in caucus and primary states all over the country," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "And what it would say to the world, to the country, that we'd overturn the verdict of those . . . elections would be travesty for . . . the party and for the country." (WaPo, 3-10) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 10 Mar 08 - 04:26 PM Obama, campaigning in Mississippi ahead of the state's contest on Tuesday, said he has won more states than Clinton and is leading in delegates who will decide the Democratic candidate to face Republican John McCain in November. "I don't know how somebody who is in second place is offering the vice presidency to somebody who is in first place," Obama, an Illinois senator, told supporters. The crowd booed when he mentioned Hillary's idea. "I'm not running for vice president. I am running for president of the United States of America," Obama added. (Reuters, 3-10-08) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: catspaw49 Date: 10 Mar 08 - 04:30 PM Say Amos, could you give us an update whenever he takes a piss as well? Also find out if he shakes it or taps it huh? LMAO.............damn......... Spaw |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 10 Mar 08 - 04:34 PM He just did -- in the men's lav behind the meeting hall kitchen. It was a great relief as he had been holding it all through his speech and it was beginning to float his teeth. He was heard to sigh in the process, and according to local eyewitnesses, he tapped, rather than shook. Let me know if you have any more questions, pal. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: catspaw49 Date: 10 Mar 08 - 04:44 PM Thanks.......I had worked myself up into a tizzie over not knowing............I feel much better now and can sit up and take nourishment for yet another day.......... Spaw |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 11 Mar 08 - 08:52 PM orrespondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama beat rival Hillary Clinton in Mississippi on Tuesday, giving him new momentum in their increasingly nasty presidential fight as they head into the next critical showdown in Pennsylvania in six weeks. The win for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, extended his lead over Clinton in pledged delegates to the August nominating convention. The Illinois senator also won Saturday in Wyoming. Clinton revived her hopes in the Democratic race last week with big wins over Obama in Ohio and Texas, prolonging their bitter Democratic fight for the right to face Republican John McCain in November's presidential election. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 11 Mar 08 - 09:58 PM Mississippi Updated 1 minute ago Obama 66,769 55% 36% reporting Clinton 52,430 43% AP has declared Obama has won Mississippi. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 12 Mar 08 - 01:28 AM Thanks to the Democratic Party's often-inscrutable method of apportioning delegates to its national nominating convention, Barack Obama's resounding victory in Mississippi's presidential primary means that this smallish southern state - with only 33 pledged delegates at stake - will likely negate Clinton's wins in the much-larger (and ostensibly more important) states of Texas and Ohio. The final delegate tally isn't immediately known. But by winning almost 60 per cent of the vote in Mississippi, Obama could net up to nine delegates from Mississippi, more than Clinton gained on March 4. So what does it all mean? It means, in part, that Obama got a bit lucky and escaped without any quantifiable damage to his campaign after all the hubbub over Nafta-gate in Ohio and the impact of the Hispanic vote in Texas. Perception, however, is a trickier thing for Obama. The Clinton campaign has a powerful spin machine right now that is portraying the Texas and Ohio results as leaving Obama's campaign "reeling." This is a bit much, given that it appears Obama actually won the Texas caucuses (the less-publicized element of the Lone Star State's crazy hybrid system). But still, the Clintons can rightfully claim they blunted, at least temporarily, Obama's momentum at a time when many people were writing the former first lady's campaign obituary. Clinton's strategists are also portraying Obama's wins as somehow less legitimate because many of them have come in smaller states (like Mississippi) and in states (like Wyoming, which Obama won on Saturday) which hold caucuses as opposed to primaries. This is a somewhat less convincing talking point....(Canada.com) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 12 Mar 08 - 08:21 AM "...states... which hold caucuses as opposed to primaries." I think this is a really big deal, and if the Democrats ever want to elect another president, and they don't do it this time, they need to get rid of caucuses and got to all primaries. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 12 Mar 08 - 12:09 PM ANd for those who think Texas was a big embarassment to Obama's team: "Sen. Barack Obama widen his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the overall delegate count by picking up delegates in Mississippi and Texas on Tuesday. Sen. Barack Obama claimed a big victory in Mississippi's Democratic primary. The Illinois Democrat won handily in the Mississippi Democratic primary Tuesday. Obama beat Clinton 61 percent to 37 percent with 99 percent of the precincts reporting. With the victory, Obama added 17 delegates to his total while Clinton picked up 11, CNN estimates. The Mississippi win was Obama's second win in a row, having won the Wyoming caucuses Saturday. CNN Tuesday also projected that Obama was the winner of the Texas Democratic caucuses that occurred March 4. Obama will be awarded 38 of Texas's delegates, while Clinton will win 29 delegates as a result of the caucuses, CNN estimates. Clinton beat Obama 51 percent to 47 percent in the Texas primary that was also held on March 4, but Obama was expected to win a majority of the 228 Texas delegates due to his caucus win." CNN Let's see how many retractions or adjustments come out of the pop press on these numbers, where previously they were headling Hillary's earth-shaking "win". Eh? A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 12 Mar 08 - 04:40 PM Like an honor guard escorting him to his lectern, nine former generals and admirals entered a room this afternoon with military precision to try to help Sen. Barack Obama counter recent suggestions that he is not up to the job of commander-in-chief. "After years of being told that Democrats have to talk, act and vote like John McCain to pass some commander-in-chief test, how many times do we have to learn that tough talk is not a substitute for sound judgment?" Obama said in his opening remarks. With nine American flags behind him, as well as one for each branch of the military, Obama spoke at the Chicago History Museum, a rare Chicago appearance for a candidate who has spent much of the past 13 months on the road. The event followed suggestions in recent days by Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign that Obama is not yet ready to be responsible for America's military might, even as it has also suggested that he might make a good vice presidential candidate. Answering questions from reporters, Obama said he believes Clinton is qualified to be commander-in-chief, just as he and McCain are. But the Illinois Democrat also said Clinton has played unfair on the topic. "I think it is fair to say Sen. Clinton has deployed this as a political strategy," he said. "The disingenuousness of it was revealed when they started saying that, 'A well, maybe he can be vice president, which by President Clinton's own criteria means that I must be qualified to be commander in chief. Apparently the thinking is that I might not be ready on day one, but maybe on day 15, I would be prepared. This is politics." Obama pointed to a Clinton ad that suggests he would not be ready to answer a 3 a.m. crisis phone call at the White House. "This was a last-minute gambit prior to Texas and Ohio because in their own terms, they had said that campaign would end if they didn't win. And so, they launched this broadside," Obama said. "Here's the one good thing about it, is that this issue would have come up in the general election anyway. So, we might as well surface it now. I didn't expect Democrats to be making these arguments against fellow Democrats. They typically come from Republicans against Democrats. Certainly, if Sen. Clinton were the nominee, John McCain will make this exact same argument against her. But…since I intend to be the nominee, and I'm going to be running against John McCain, it's an argument that we would have to deal with at some point anyway." After Obama spoke, a quartet of the former military leaders each took a turn at the lectern to offer him praise. General Merrill “Tonyâ€쳌 McPeak said the first-term senator has the temperament to lead the military, calling him "no shock Barack" and "no drama Obama." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 12 Mar 08 - 09:47 PM Amos - Do you think Obama would offer Hillary VP, and if he did, do you think she would accept? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 12 Mar 08 - 10:28 PM Rig: I don't honestly know. If I were he I would be leery of the baggage she would bring that could be savaged by the bestial blades of the right, just as they sliced and diced Bill. I would definitely include her in my circle of supporters, if I felt I could trust her. Not knowing her personally it is hard to call. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Ron Davies Date: 13 Mar 08 - 12:53 AM Against McCain, he'd be far better off with someone of proven military background and knowledge. One suggestion I've heard is Jim Webb--both of the above, and --possibly-- helping bring Virginia along. Military background and knowledge is not exactly Hillary's strong suit. I would hope the DNC would not be so short-sighted as to insist that he pick her as VP as a condition for ending this civil war in the Democratic party. It's fairly evident that by the convention he will have the higher number of delegates, and probably also popular vote. Her supporters, wanting to keep a Republican from choosing any more Supreme Court justices, will support him in the fall, whether or not Hillary is on the ticket. So he should be able to pick the VP he feels is best--no added pressure from the outside--- any more than any presidential nominee feels. (Look, for instance, at how enthusiastic JFK was to have to run with LBJ). |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 13 Mar 08 - 10:54 AM "Thursday, March 13, 2008 - 9:50 AM EDT Obama stages unbelievable comebackThe Business Journal of the Greater Triad Area Print Article Email Article Reprints RSS Feeds ShareThis In one of the greatest comebacks in the history of unscientific online polls, Barack Obama outdistanced rivals John McCain and Hillary Clinton as the presidential favorite of readers of The Business Journal of the Greater Triad's website. Obama received 49 percent of the 549 votes cast, compared to 35 percent for McCain, 11 percent for Clinton and 2 percent for Ralph Nader. The informal poll was conducted between March 5 and March 12. Readers were asked simply "Who's your candidate now?' among the remaining presidential candidates. Amazingly, McCain had a comfortable lead in the poll as of Tuesday morning, with more than 50 percent of the vote. But in the poll's final 24 hours, about 170 more votes were cast -- virtually all for Obama. " (Business Journals) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 13 Mar 08 - 11:05 AM "...The cost of a college education is soaring and Senator Obama wants to make it more affordable; he has proposed a $4,000 tuition credit for every year a student is in college. In return, students are expected to give back to their communities and their country through volunteerism. Finally, Senator Obama represents the immigrant ethos of the American Dream: if you work hard, if you have good values, you can achieve anything. This is how he was raised and many people in our community respond to that. It is important to note that it's not just young people who are supporting Obama. He is gaining supporters from first generation voters well. When I was calling South Asian voters in Houston, Texas, I spoke to an Indian woman in her fifties who is an avid Obama supporter. Both her children were away at college and she was volunteering at the local Obama campaign office, making phone calls and organising fundraisers. My father, an avid and lifelong Republican, has not only donated to the Obama campaign but has also made dozens of calls to voters as a volunteer. These are only two of many examples of how Senator Barack Obama's campaign crosses generational, ethnic, religious and, yes, traditional party lines. How does he do this you may ask? That answer is quite simple: he gives us hope for a better life — and the chance to realise that hope. " The writer lives in San Francisco where she writes fiction and film/book reviews. She is managing editor of the award-winning city guide SF Station.com and the Bay Area Chair for South Asians for Obama. (Economic Times of India) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 13 Mar 08 - 10:32 PM FOX News, oddly enough, opines that the superdelegates are coming Obama's way: "A funny thing is happening. While Hillary and Bill appeal to super delegates to override the will of the voters and back Hillary, the super delegates are doing just the opposite. The latest delegate count posted on realclearpolitics.com shows that HillaryÕs lead among super delegates, once a comfortable 60 votes, has now been cut almost in half to 36 delegates. The latest tally has Hillary leading among super delegates by 247 to 211. So, with 57 percent of the super delegates decided, HillaryÕs lead is shrinking. In fact, ObamaÕs total delegate lead has swelled to 163 votes among elected delegates and 127 among all delegates. With 1,614 votes, he isnÕt far from the 2,025 he would need, without Florida or Michigan, to win the nomination. Of the remaining 566 delegates to be selected, Hillary should enjoy a slight edge. SheÕll probably win Pennsylvania (158 delegates), Indiana (72), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), and Puerto Rico (55). Obama will likely win North Carolina (115), Oregon (52), Montana (16), South Dakota (15) and Guam (4). If this turns out to be so, Clinton would lead in states with 364 delegates while Obama would prevail in states with 202. But even if we assume 10 point wins for each candidate in each state (and the margin will likely be much tighter), all Hillary would get from her states is 36 more delegates while Obama would get 20 from his Ñ still leaving Obama with a lead of 147 in elected delegates. At that point, Obama would have about 1,900 votes, within spitting distance of the 2025 heÕd need to win. Hillary would have to win the remaining super delegates by a top-heavy margin of 2:1 in order to win (steal) the nomination from Obama, who will have won the most elected delegates. Even if we factor in possible do-over primaries in Florida and Michigan, the nature of the proportional representation process is not likely to change this outcome significantly. Hillary might get an extra 20 delegates if she wins both states, but sheÕs not likely to get more. Can Hillary carry the remaining super delegates by 2:1 when she is carrying the ones who have committed by only 247 to 211? Not very likely. The pressure on these delegates to vote as their states voted will be very intense and few are likely to stand up to it...." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 14 Mar 08 - 09:39 AM Australia (Sydney Herald): In politics, there is spin and doctoring and downright monstering on message management, and it is waged with no holds barred 24/7. It's the foghorns of war. And then there is calculus and the clarity of numbers. Notwithstanding Hillary Clinton's big wins last week in Texas and Ohio - victories that saved her campaign - the new momentum she has, and with prospects ahead of a Clinton victory in Pennsylvania on April 22, a closer look at the raw fundamentals leads to the conclusion that Barack Obama is in fact closer to clinching the Democratic nomination. There are three key factors in this calculus: - delegates - popular vote, and - electability. Obama is ahead in all three - and is poised to finish the primary/caucus season as the leader with the biggest claim as victor. (1) In delegates, Obama today has 1529 to Clinton's 1417 - a lead of more than 100 that she will most likely be unable to erase. Even if Clinton wins Pennsylvania 55-45 per cent, Clinton will net a gain of only 15 delegates. In the polls today, the candidates are tied in Michigan and Clinton is comfortably ahead in Florida. Even if those two states revote, and the outcome tracks today's polls, Clinton would net perhaps 30 delegates. Obama for his part is expected to do well in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, where 250 delegates are at stake - so he can net delegates in those contests. The bottom line: the primary season will end with Obama leading in the delegate count. (2) In the popular vote, Obama has won 13.005 million votes to Clinton's 12.414 million votes to date a 51-49 per cent margin. Again, barring a blowout, the primaries will end with Obama having won more votes cast overall. In the voting to date, Obama has won 29 states, and Clinton 17, and he has more voter intensity behind him. Obama has won 25 of those contests with 55 per cent or more of the vote, and, in 19 of those states, Clinton has received less than 40 per cent of the vote. Clinton has won only six states with more that 55 per cent of the vote (including American Samoa and Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot). (3) Electability and the superdelegates. While Obama will end the primary season ahead in delegates and the popular vote, he will most likely still not have a majority of all delegates, and therefore the final decision will hinge on the 800 superdelegates and their choice. What superdelegates care about is who is the best at the top of the ticket to protect them in November, win the White House and increase the Democrats' margins in Congress. Here is where the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll (13/3/08) is instructive on Obama's electability. While Clinton and Obama hold virtually identical slivers of leads over John McCain (47-44 per cent for Obama, 47-45 per cent for Clinton), Democratic voters, by a 48-38 per cent margin, say that Obama has the better chance of beating McCain than Clinton. Fifty-nine per cent say he passes the Commander-in-Chief test (she rates 64 per cent). On the pivotal issue of who has the ability to bring change, Obama gets 72 per cent, and Clinton 58 per cent. In terms of positive/negative ratings, Obama has a 51-28 positive ratio to Clinton's 45-43. And former president Bill Clinton is now viewed unfavourably (42-45) by more voters for the first time in five years. Obama's calculus for victory, therefore, is quite straightforward in his message to the supers: "I have the most delegates, have won the most states, have won them more convincingly, and am the more electable. Ratify the verdict of the voters of our party, and do the right thing." It will be hard for most of the supers to reach a different conclusion. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 14 Mar 08 - 10:11 AM "FOX News, oddly enough, opines that the superdelegates are coming Obama's way:" There's nothing odd about this. Fox News is staffed by a bunch of right-wing-religious-wakkos, and the know that McCain could walk over Obam quite easily. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Charley Noble Date: 14 Mar 08 - 10:29 AM Interesting! Anyone want to place a little bet? How about you, Rig? We could donate the winnings to Mudcat. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 14 Mar 08 - 11:38 AM Step right up, there, Rig!! Substitute greenback dollars for your sour, distorted prognostication, and let the good times roll. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: beardedbruce Date: 14 Mar 08 - 12:39 PM Pressure and the Prophet By Michael Gerson Friday, March 14, 2008; Page A17 The economy is a rising issue in presidential politics, but Iraq still overshadows this election. John McCain's nomination was ensured by the success of the surge he had consistently advocated, against intense opposition. If Barack Obama eventually wins the Democratic nomination, his extraordinary rise may be traced to a speech on Oct. 2, 2002, at an antiwar rally in downtown Chicago. That day, Obama, then an obscure state senator, said: "I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences." For many Democrats, this prescience has given Obama the aura of a prophet. And this early opposition lends credibility to his current promise: to swiftly end the U.S. combat role in Iraq. Recently, this pledge was called into question by Obama's now-former adviser, Samantha Power, who said: "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he's crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. senator. He will rely upon a plan -- an operational plan -- that he pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground." The proper response to such a statement is: One would hope so. Power's "gaffe" happens to be an obvious truth. Would Americans expect a president to keep campaign pledges that he later determines would undermine the national interest? But it is not only the future of Obama's antiwar commitment being questioned; it is also his past consistency. In a new article on Commentary magazine's Web site, Peter Wehner undertakes a thorough examination of Obama's record on Iraq. It is, shall we say, complex. More than a year after the initial success of the invasion, Obama explained, "There's not much of a difference between my position and George Bush's position at this stage." And he was correct. In July 2004, he argued that America had an "absolute obligation" to stay in Iraq until the country stabilized. "The failure of the Iraqi state would be a disaster," he said. "It would dishonor the 900-plus men and women who have already died." Two months later, Obama criticized Bush's conduct of the war but repeated that simply pulling out would further destabilize Iraq, making it an "extraordinary hotbed of terrorist activity." And he signaled his openness to the deployment of additional troops if this would make an eventual withdrawal more likely. In June 2006, Obama still opposed "a date certain for the total withdrawal of U.S. troops." "I don't think it's appropriate for Congress," he said, "to make those decisions about what happens in the field." By late 2006, as public support for the Iraq war disintegrated and his own political ambitions quickened, Obama called for a "phased withdrawal." When Bush announced the surge, Obama saw nothing in the plan that would "make a significant dent in the sectarian violence that's taking place there" -- a lapse in his prophetic powers. When Obama announced his presidential candidacy on Feb. 10, 2007, he stated, "I have a plan that will bring our combat troops home by March of 2008." Then in May and again in November, he voted against funding American forces in Iraq. Wehner concludes that Obama is guilty of "problematically ad-hoc judgments at best, calculatingly cynical judgments at worst." And he notes that while McCain has been consistently right about Iraq in the years since the invasion -- highly critical of the early strategy and supportive of a successful surge -- Obama has been consistently wrong in supporting the early, failed strategy and opposing the surge, even as its success became evident. Obama did indeed oppose the war early on. But he did not become an antiwar leader in Congress. He is not Dennis Kucinich -- and thank goodness. Obama's initial foreign policy instincts -- refusing to tie the hands of the military with arbitrary deadlines -- were not radical. I find this reassuring. But there is little doubt that Obama has gained in political support among Democrats as his positions on Iraq have become progressively antiwar. His March 2008 withdrawal deadline -- which is up now -- would have undone the Anbar Awakening, massively strengthened al-Qaeda and increased civilian carnage. And Obama will find -- as John Kerry found in 2004 -- that Americans are suspicious of a prospective commander in chief who votes against funding U.S. troops in the field. The Iraq war determined the paths for McCain and Obama. But there is a large difference between them. McCain eventually won his nomination because he showed political courage in the face of overwhelming pressure. Obama may eventually win his nomination because he surrendered to that pressure. michaelgerson@cfr.org |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 14 Mar 08 - 12:46 PM Oh, good!! ANother lengthy explanation of why we have to resort to bloodshed and mayhem in order to promote civilization. Let's let the less monied tribes of the world provoke us into slaughtering 'em, their wives, mothers, fathers and children. That's teach them to screw around with Civilization. JEsus, don't you guys EVER learn ? A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: GUEST,mg Date: 14 Mar 08 - 01:19 PM all these calculations..it is like saying from an engineering standpoint car a should beat car b in a race. It does not account for sugar in the tank...mg |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: McGrath of Harlow Date: 14 Mar 08 - 03:01 PM "...Hillary Clinton's big wins last week in Texas and Ohio..." Wins, but hardly "big". Especially in Texas, where she'll very probably end up with fewer delegates than Obama. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 15 Mar 08 - 08:34 AM A profile on Barack Obama's mother from the NY Times -- interesting study and an impressive woman. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Riginslinger Date: 15 Mar 08 - 08:44 AM Amos - That's interesting. I looked for some information on her a while back and couldn't find much. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 15 Mar 08 - 08:53 PM "he more we hear Obama, the more the ridiculous these attacks by a desperate Clinton campaign will seem to most Democrats. First, Obama defused the Ferraro racist brouhaha with calm and reasoned low key humor. Now, weÕll hear him discuss the objectionable views of his pastor in an intelligent and spiritual manner that will speak to people of all faiths. The more one is exposed to Barack Obama the more impressive he becomes to fair-minded people disinclined to apoplectic meltdowns. The opposite is true with Hillary Clinton who increasingly is becoming the Tonya Harding of American Politics." A blogger |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 15 Mar 08 - 09:34 PM From a column by Nancy Greggs: The inconvenient truth is that the GOP started preparing the onslaught of lies and innuendo to be aimed at Hillary years ago. They didn't foresee (just as many Democrats did not foresee) that Barack Obama would come out of nowhere and become the front-runner. No doubt they are busily working overtime to correct that oversight even as we speak. But to say that Hillary has been "completely vetted". and there is nothing left for the Right to throw at her is, at best, naive Ñ and, at worst, delusional; almost as delusional as thinking that Obama is the darling of the MSM, and faces smooth sailing from here on in. But the real lesson to be learned here is that the Democrats have, for far too long, made their decision of who to run based solely on what nastiness the GOP might have up their sleeves, ready to unleash on some poor, unsuspecting candidate. ... if Christ himself was to try and run on the Democratic ticket, so-called cooler heads would prevail by declaring him too vulnerable to swiftboating to be a viable candidate. I don't pretend to be privy to the inner workings of the GOP. However, I would bet everything I own on the fact that while they consider who would be best to rally their base, and hopefully appeal to Independents and Undecideds, the Republican powers-that-be rarely waste their time considering what the Democrats will think of their choice, what the Liberals will come up with to undermine their candidate, what the other side will dig up that is unsavory, unpalatable -- or out-and-out untrue. Although I have never been a Hillary supporter in terms of the presidential candidacy race, I give her credit for many things – and for one thing above all. Knowing she is universally hated by Republicans, having been warned that they would say or do anything to stop her, having no doubt been advised that her chances of surviving the never-ending mud-slinging that she would meet upon announcing her candidacy were slim at best, she said, "Fuck it, boys, I'm going in." At the same time, Obama was surely warned, repeatedly so, that being a black man – and a young, fight-the-status-quo man at that – would be the end of a promising career that could have flourished if only he'd waited, if only he'd not been so anxious to rock the boat. Again, like Hillary, he said, "Fuck it, guys, I'm going in." By my count, that's two candidates who are willing to take-on the mealy-mouthed-but-safe establishment; by my count, that's two Democrats willing to not only step up to the plate, but more than willing and able to hit one out of the ballpark for all Americans. Yesterday's new is that Hillary's campaign has been tombstoned by the remarks of Geraldine Ferraro. Today's news is that Obama's campaign is over due to remarks by his church's pastor. The truth is that neither of these things is equivalent to a yawn, no less certain death. Tomorrow's headlines will bring bad tidings to one campaign or the other – and so the pattern will continue, for weeks, if not months, to come. While the vitriol between the two "camps" – Obama supporters v Hillary supportersÐ-rages on here and elsewhere, while those of us cocooned in our comfortable little website world might want to believe that our party is irretrievably divided, that cries of I will NEVER vote for that man/woman are actually reflective of the voters-at-large, the truth is that in the end, we Democrats will come together, we will unite, we will prevail. May the best man or woman win -- and if we, as individuals, have even half the chutzpah these two candidates have shown, the battle of (D) v (R) has already been won. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 16 Mar 08 - 12:14 AM CHICAGO - Sen. Barack Obama picked up nine more pledged delegates in Iowa, state Democratic officials said late Saturday night, as thousands took part in county conventions. All but one of the delegates had been among the 14 won Jan. 3 by former senator John Edwards, who has since dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. Election-night projections showed Obama getting 16 delegates and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 15. With the other six standing firm for Edwards at the county conventions, Obama's camp claimed 25 delegates from Iowa to 14 for Clinton. "This is a very significant improvement for us," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters of the Iowa result. "We both fought as hard as we could here." Plouffe said Obama's gains included blue-collar counties where he had finished third in the January caucuses. If the Iowa numbers hold at the June 14 state convention, which sends delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August, Obama will have gained more than half of the state's delegates. On Jan. 3, he was backed by 39 percent of caucusgoers, compared with 30 percent for Edwards and 29 percent for Clinton. The Associated Press reported late Saturday that, in final counts from California's Feb. 5 primary, Clinton picked up two more pledged delegates, and Obama added five. According to AP's count, the Iowa and California results give Obama a national lead of 119 delegates, both pledged and superdelegates, over Clinton. (From Wapo's "The Trail") |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 16 Mar 08 - 12:38 PM From "The Suthern POlitical Report" March 16, 2008 Ñ Bill Clinton was right: ÒDemocrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.Ó This is exactly what is happening right now with the political parties. The Republicans, having chosen McCain, is beginning to fall in line, with conservatives in tow. Democrats are still falling in love with Obama. This was best captured in the Saturday Night Live skit of a debate between Obama and Hillary,in which one of the fictional journalists asked Obama, Òdo you really still like me?Ó As a political scientist, I can not identify the tipping point of this Obama love fest. I closely watch him on television, saw him speak in person with Oprah in South Carolina, and question my friends who are Obama supporters about him. His charms did not woo me over or excite me. The Obama presidential campaign is rewriting all conventional wisdom. As my Obama friends points out, ÒObama is just a likeable guy, he a nice smile, good lucks, and speaks well.Ó One previously non-political friend, Karla, is so taken with Obama that she signs her emails as ÒObama mama.Ó Her husband, Jeno has even registered to vote for the first time in his 68 years. What is the cause of the Obama surge? Some call it a Òmovement,Ó others call it a need for Òchange.Ó I call it just being cool. We all have experience a degree of wanting to be cool, to be the person who can do no wrong or simply be part of the ÒinÓ crowd. To get a sense of this in our culture, review all the magazines at the grocery store check-out line. The headlines point out to what is ÒhipÓ in fashion, music, and now politics. Other than calling for Òdhange,Ó the Obama movement does not rally around one central policy issue. He is just being cool. Unfortunately being cool is temporary. One day you are new and hip, the next day you are old and vintage. It can be painful to watch this transformation, from the old to the new. It is a part of the cycle of life. The key is to adapt and become comfortable with who you are. When Bill Clinton burst to the scene in the 90s, he was cool. The first baby boomer candidate, he played the sax, was charismatic and full of new ideas. He was going to Òreinvent government.Ó He was a mix part Elvis and part JFK. His 1992 Fleetwood Mac campaign song -- ÒDonÕt Stop Thinking About TomorrowÓ Ð gave us hope. Now in Clinton II, Hillary is spiteful, out of touch, and too emotional. She is yesterday, while Obama is tomorrow. Bill ClintonÕs campaign role has been eclipsed and he has a bit part in his wifeÕs aspirations. Regardless of the reasons, U.S. Rep. John LewisÕs switch to the Obama camp signals more than reinforce what TrumanÕs creed of politics states, Òif you want a friend in politics, buy a dog.Ó It signifies how the party insiders are moving to be part of the cool crowd. Hillary is not out, but if the Obama winning surge continues he will be the Democratic nominee. Being cool is fleeting, but vision and competence are needed to solve our nationÕs challenges. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 16 Mar 08 - 12:49 PM Obama expands delegate lead Obama expanded his pledged delegate lead over Clinton today. Iowa finally formalized itÕs national convention delegates and over half of the delegates originally given to Edwards decided to side with Obama. Most of the rest didnÕt side with Clinton but decided to stick with Edwards (whatever that means). In the end the Iowa delegate count went from 16, 15, 14 (Obama, Clinton, Edwards) to 25, 14 (yes Clinton lost one), 6. National delegate count (including supers) now stand in ObamaÕs favor: 1,626 to 1,503 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama From: Amos Date: 16 Mar 08 - 01:07 PM Post 1300! A small token of respect for Gigi: ANGER >> >> A string of reproaches against other people >> leads one to suspect the existence of a string >> of self-reproaches with the same content. >> >> Sigmund Freud |
