Subject: RE: BS: more hurricane warnings
From:
PoppaGator
Date: 27 Aug 05 - 10:05 PM
So far, so good. Thanks to all for asking.
We're riding it out; our house is on the highest ground in the city, with the main living area raised a full story above grade, and our single past experience with evacuation was pretty unpleasant. Of course, that time turned out to be a false alarm for us (Ivan, last year), and this one might really hit the city and be a disaster. Still in all, we're standing pat and occupying our property, as are most of our neighbors, as well as most friends who live in town. (The suburbs are something else, with larger areas much more flood-prone.)
We have about 16-18 hours to change our minds; we could drive out of town anytime before dark tomorrow and be gone before the storm hits Monday morning. Thing is, there are no rooms available anywhere within 500 miles, and we have too many people to fit in one car ~ three "young adults," two actual grownups, and a 20-month-old. The baby seat takes up too much space to squeeze four across the back seat. If we get scared enough to change our minds and bug out, we would have to take the gas guzzling SUV rather than the Toyota sedan ~ same number of seats, but there's space in the back for someone to curl up. It would be a pretty uncomfortable ride for the one who pulls the sort straw, but preferable to the trunk of the Camry!
We'll have power until the storm hits Mon a.m. I'm not guaranteeing if and when I'll be sitting at the computer again, but I'll try to keep you all posted, and let you all know if and when we change our mind and hit the road.
While this hurricane could be pretty bad, especially with the high winds, the angle at which it's approaching rules out the real "worst case scenario." If the eye were to come straight up the river, southeast to northwest, the counterclockwise winds could theoretically blow enough water from the gulf into Lake Pontchartrain to breach the lakeside levees north of the city, which would then hold the floodwaters in. That's the blueprint for the biblical-proportions "Big One" but that's not what's happening with Katrina.
The projected path right now has the storm curling back at a NNE angle, with the eye cutting across the mouth of the river, then back over the water, and hitting the mainland on the Mississippi coast. This would more or less spare the city ~ high winds, certainly, but not a lot of flooding. The further east, of course, the better (for us). If the forecast is wrong and the eye hits us directly, that'll be bad of course, but the lake is still very unlikely to overflow, so it won't be the proverbial worst case. If the forecasts are really wrong and the eye passes to our west, it could be even worse, since we'll be on the "wrong" side of the storm with the counterclockwise winds hitting us straight from the Gulf with no overland "buffer," but again, very little likelihood of flooding from the lake side.
Our house is nice and high ~ higher than the levees ever if they were to overflow. We'll be above the waterline no matter what. What worries me most is (a) high winds blowing big heavy tree limbs onto (through?) the roof, and (b) being without power after the storm has passed, perhaps for a good long while. We have the fridge and freezer set on maximum (well, on the lowest temperature) so that stuff will stay as cold as possible for as long as possible. That's about all we can do.
PS to Bill D ~ "wonder who the genius was who decided to place the pumps to relieve flooding in the way of floods?" The only way I can see that the pumps are "in the way" of anything is that they're on the ground. Short of finding a skyhook to suspend them twenty feet in the air, I'm not sure how they could be any better situated. And of course, there would rarely be any water to pump up there; we need 'em at ground level where there's almost always water to send away. The pumping/drainage system here is actually pretty amazing, comparable to the Netherlands for making habitable space out of an area that has no business not being underwater all the time.
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sj
