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BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA

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Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 03:24 PM
Alice 20 Sep 05 - 03:30 PM
GUEST,rarelamb 20 Sep 05 - 03:43 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 20 Sep 05 - 03:51 PM
Susu's Hubby 20 Sep 05 - 04:48 PM
GUEST,Melani 20 Sep 05 - 06:12 PM
Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM
Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM
Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 08:39 PM
Bobert 20 Sep 05 - 09:05 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 20 Sep 05 - 10:45 PM
Bev and Jerry 21 Sep 05 - 12:16 AM
Wolfgang 21 Sep 05 - 06:29 AM
Donuel 21 Sep 05 - 07:15 AM
GUEST,Whistle Stop 21 Sep 05 - 08:58 AM
Azizi 21 Sep 05 - 09:42 AM
beardedbruce 21 Sep 05 - 10:26 AM
beardedbruce 21 Sep 05 - 10:28 AM
Susu's Hubby 21 Sep 05 - 11:20 AM
Susu's Hubby 21 Sep 05 - 11:31 AM
Bill D 21 Sep 05 - 11:42 AM
Les in Chorlton 21 Sep 05 - 01:39 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 21 Sep 05 - 02:37 PM
beardedbruce 21 Sep 05 - 02:46 PM
Azizi 21 Sep 05 - 03:04 PM
Donuel 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM
GUEST 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 21 Sep 05 - 03:19 PM
CapriUni 21 Sep 05 - 04:06 PM
Bill D 21 Sep 05 - 04:20 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 06:21 PM
Scoville 21 Sep 05 - 07:10 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 07:37 PM
Bill D 21 Sep 05 - 07:50 PM
Bobert 21 Sep 05 - 08:49 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 08:59 PM
Bev and Jerry 21 Sep 05 - 09:19 PM
Bobert 21 Sep 05 - 09:49 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 10:00 PM
bobad 21 Sep 05 - 10:12 PM
Sorcha 21 Sep 05 - 10:13 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 21 Sep 05 - 10:18 PM
Bill D 21 Sep 05 - 10:29 PM
Scoville 21 Sep 05 - 10:30 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 10:39 PM
dianavan 21 Sep 05 - 11:03 PM
dianavan 21 Sep 05 - 11:17 PM
dianavan 21 Sep 05 - 11:33 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 11:59 PM
Stilly River Sage 22 Sep 05 - 12:02 AM

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Subject: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:24 PM

Is Mother Nature going to sock it to the US Gulf states again?

See these excerpts from a Reuters UK article about [currently]category 2 Hurricane Rita:

"Rita grew from a tropical storm to a hurricane with 85 mph (136 mph) winds as it battered the fragile Keys. All 80,000 residents had been ordered out of the island chain but many stayed behind in boarded-up homes as stormwater submerged parts of the only highway linking them to the Florida mainland.

The hurricane was expected to strengthen further as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico where deadly Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc three weeks ago....


Texas seemed the most likely target for Rita's second strike, but Louisiana would still get the outer bands of the storm during the weekend.

A Louisiana official warned that levees in New Orleans, where hundreds died in Katrina's floods, would fail again if the city were smashed by a new storm surge. Major Ray Nagin suspended plans for some residents to return to the devastated city.

Oil companies only starting to recover from Katrina evacuated Gulf oil rigs. Private forecasters said there was a 40 percent chance that damaging hurricane-force winds would directly affect major Gulf energy production areas.

The Navy began moving its remaining fleet of Katrina relief vessels, including the hospital ship Comfort, away from the Gulf Coast to ride out any potential battering from Rita.

The 1,100 Hurricane Katrina refugees still in Houston's two mass shelters faced another evacuation on Tuesday as the city found itself in the possible path of Rita. They were to be sent to Fort Chafee, Arkansas...."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?

-snip-

Here are my questions to Mudcat scientists & other Mudcat posters: are there more big hurricanes than usual hitting the USA this year, and if so, does global warming have anything to do with this?

My third question is if this hurricane really hits Galveston, Texas or Houston, Texas or wherever, who is in charge of FEMA?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Alice
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:30 PM

The Gulf of Mexico is warmer than usual this year, but the US does get tropical storms and hurricanes every year. Warmer water in the gulf feeds the intensity of any storm or hurricane that moves across it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:43 PM

-I believe it's the 4th busiest on record.

-And if I remember Galvenston had the worst hurricane disaster in teh US.

-I don't believe that we are experiencing man made global warming.

-David Paulison is the interim FEMA director.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:51 PM

Whether global warming has anything to do with it is debatable. It's mainly due to a cyclical phenomenon known as the Atlantic heat conveyor. It's important to note that while the number of Atlantic storms is up, the number of Pacific and Indian Ocean storms is actually down. If it were strictly a function of global warming one would expect to see equally increased activity in all oceans.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 04:48 PM

The problem with trying to tie any weather event with global warming is that:

1.) These cycles have been occuring for thousands of years.

2.) We only have about 100 years or less of weather records to try and determine what those cycles are.


There's just not near enough information. Therefore, there will be a huge statistical margin of error to contend with if you're trying to tie one with the other.


In fact, I remember that back in the 70's, scientists were trying to make the case for "global cooling".

I think they're just trying to make the case for their own job security other than trying to figure other secrets that really matter, such as, why does bubble gum lose it's flavor or why don't motorcycles have doors?


Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,Melani
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 06:12 PM

It's enough to make me glad to live in earthquake country instead.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM

Melani, does it have to be either/or? [living in flooding prone areas or living in earthquake country]

I guess people live where they happen to live. And I suppose most people hope for the best. But if you live in such areas, I would hope that people keep alert & aware, prepare as best they can given their {sometimes far too limited resources} and hope [and demand]that the authorities prepare as best they can for the worst and properly execute needed support and servivces in the event of an emergency.

IMO, too often the "authorities" in all levels of government don't prepare as best they can. For instance, hiring incompetent cronies makes it less likely for the proper planning and needed services will occur as soon as they are needed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM

Here's another excerpt from an online article about Hurricane Rita:

Hurricane Rita Strengthens, Heading to Gulf of Mexico (Update4)
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Rita strengthened en route to the Gulf of Mexico, heading on a path that may threaten the Texas coast and parts of Louisiana devastated by Katrina three weeks earlier.

Rita, a so-called Category 2 storm with 100 mph (166 kph) winds, is moving into the Gulf's warm waters, where it will strengthen in the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said. Rita may reach Category 4 or Category 5, with winds from 131 mph to more than 155 mph, by the time it reaches the Texas coastline this weekend, the center said.

While Rita is forecast to land anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston in Texas, it may veer east and strike Louisiana's coast, the center said. The threat to the region devastated by Katrina prompted New Orleans's mayor to halt plans for residents to return and Texas officials to call for some evacuations.

``We are urging all residents from south Texas to Louisiana to keep watch,'' center meteorologist Robbie Berg said.

Rita, the ninth hurricane of the season, was about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south-southwest of Key West, Florida, as of 5 p.m. local time, the center said. The storm is moving west at about 15 mph (24 kph)."

-snip-

To read the complete article, click Bloomberg.com-Hurricane Rita


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:39 PM

Also see this excerpt from a dailykos diary written by a blogger who indicated that he has studied meteorology: Rita: The Next Few Hours Are Critical [by Todd Johnston
Tue Sep 20th, 2005]

"A hurricane's central pressure (CP) is a simple and very effective measure of its strength. Over at the ePluribus Media Community site I'm keeping a running table of Rita's CP, from each 3-hr NWS advisories going back to last night. If you'd like to see the progression, follow the link above.

Starting with the 8:00 a.m. NWS advisory, Rita's CP began decreasing rapidly -- about 1-2 millibars/hour. The difference between a weak hurricane and a strong one is only about 50 millibars, so 1-2 millibars/hour for any length of time spells trouble.

Katrina briefly made landfall in Florida, weakening her quite a bit. But she made it through to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico where she stalled and gained strength.

Rita, however is a 'small' storm in the sense that hurricane force winds only extend outward from her eye about 50 miles. That's roughly 1/3 the size of Katrina. While that is usually good news, it's allowed Rita to slip right in-between Florida and Cuba. She is now southwest of the keys and moving west, and while many hurricanes lose strength during this passage, Rita's central pressure dropped from 978 to 973 mb between 2:00 and 5:00 p.m.

The fact that she is not a big storm may be the best news of all, however the GOM has been warmer than normal for the last 6 weeks. Hurricanes feed off warm surface waters -- that is why what happens next is so important.

If Rita stalls and sits around in the GOM, she will likely strengthen. Over the next few hours watch for 2 things in particular:

Keep track of Rita's CP. If it continues to drop, or stays the same and then drops suddenly, that spells trouble.

See if Rita slows and hangs around the Gulf before making landfall. That will give her time to strengthen.

Hopefully, neither of these will happen. If Rita's central pressure levels out and she keeps moving, she'll probably end up making landfall near eastern Texas as a weak Cat 2 or Cat 1."


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bobert
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 09:05 PM

Well, gol danged....

Seems like the scientists in the other industrialized nations think stongly that the globe is gettin' warmer and that it is the result of increased burnin' of stuff on the Earth's surface, i.e. greenhouses gases....

Pictures from sattalites suggestn that the ozone layer is being depleated as a result of such burnings...

But, yet, the current administartion in the US has searched high and low to find "so-called" scientist to counter the arguments... These so-called scientists are quacks... I know, my late fatetr-in-law was one...

Yeah, he worked for A.P.I., the American Petroleum Istitute, and was frequestly asked to testify before this or that Congressional comitteee about oil spills... His pat answer was, "Don't worry, be happy... Nature has a way of taking care of these things..."

Well, I think it is appropriate that he died of complications from being around too many chemicals.... Not that I would have wished such a fate on this man but it is indeed appropriate...

But, yeah, the rest of the world is tryin' to clean stuff up but the US won't sign on to the Kaoto (sp) Treaty limiting greenhouse gases???

Bush and his scientist think that global warmin' ios some tree hugger's scheme and thwerefore, seein' as it does not work with the profit projections of some of his campaign donators, global warmin' is bunk???

Go figure.... The rest of the world on board and Bush sayin',
"Hey, wait a minute...""

Like that never happened before....

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 10:45 PM

1. There is enough blame for everyone in the Katrina scenario.
2. A federal takeover of the emergency efforts never occurred.

If anyone is still interested in a coherent exposition of the tragedy of errors, read this Washington Post article written by Glasser and Grunwald and printed in the Washington Post Sept. 11, 2005. It is some 12 pages in print form, and is too long to excerpt properly. There is much nonsense on the internet, and this article avoids much of it. Link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/10/AR2005091001529.html
City Chaos

(One point they missed is what I have called in another thread 'the labyrinthine interrelationships of the various governments in the New Orleans metro region'. The mayor, for example, did not have any authority outside of the official (artificial) boundaries of the City of New Orleans, thus he had no jurisdiction over important areas of metro New Orleans with perhaps 40% of the population.)

Now let's see if problems created by Rita can be handled efficiently. At this moment landfall in predicted near Houston, category 4-5.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bev and Jerry
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 12:16 AM

Actually, the number of hurricanes striking the U.S. has not increased in recent years. Both the number and intensity of hurricanes striking the U. S. has remained constant for more than 100 years.

On the other hand, the number and intensity of hurricanes (also called typhoons and cyclones) on a global basis seems to have increased dramatically in recent years. Check out this article in Science Magazine.

Bev and Jerry


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wolfgang
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 06:29 AM

Global warming, causes of global warming, and hurricane cycles are quite different things that get muddled in posts like Bobert's and Hubby's.

(1) You can find close to no scientist who doubts global warming is occuring right now.
(2) You have a strong majority of scientists who think that global warming is caused mainly by human activity, but less than in (1).
(3) Even among those who would agree that global warming is man made there is a large number who think that hurricane cycles are not very much related to global warming. But the same scientists could agree that the number and strength of hurricanes increases right now.

Neither are all scientists who doubt a certain interpretation paid or quacks, nor does an agreement upon a finding mean agreement upon the interpretation.

Simplistic argumentation like Bobert's is not helpful for it makes it far too easy to portray the environmentalists as stupid.

Wolfgang


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:15 AM

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
May I inquire discretly
are you a freak
or part of some design?

first a one
and then Gulf waters
made you one of the
ugly monsters
Will Dick Chertof put you in his little black book.

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
why do you mess with Texas?
give us a break
and make me think you're through.

We aimed HAARP
right at your center
you never stopped
or went off kilter
Is technology just a waste of our time?

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
May I inquire discretly
are you a freak
or part of some design?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,Whistle Stop
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:58 AM

Well said, Wolfgang.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:42 AM

Hurricane Rita is now a category 4 hurricane.

As to the question about the frequency of storms this year, I found this interesting & informative exchange on this Tuesday Sept. 20th 2005 dailykos diary Hurricane Rita To Reach Cat. 3 Within Hours



"...what is the highest letter in the alphabet that was reached in any one season (for naming hurricanes)?.
It seems like R is getting way up there.
by highacidity" on Tue Sep 20th, 2005


****
"Rita is the 17th of the 21 names available this year. 1933 holds the record for Atlantic storms. They had 21 but this was before they were named. So we are getting close to a record. FYI - They use the Greek alphabet if we get a 5th storm after Rita. Alpha, beta, gamma, delta, etc.."
by MattR on Tue Sep 20th, 2005



****

"The letter T I believe is the highest previous letter reached. (Don't know the name or year off the top of my head, sorry!) 1933 had 21 tropical depressions, but they weren't named. This year is likely to match that and then some. Once they get through the twenty-one names, the Greek alphabet is used to name the storms".
by moira977 on Tue Sep 20th, 2005



****

"Looked it up - T is for Tanya in 1995.
by moira977 on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

"Why 21?

Why don't they use all 26 letters of the alphabet when they create the list of names for the year?"
by ethans mom on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

"There are not enough X-names, Z-names, etc. So they say."
by mapantsula on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

"There are 6 sets of names that they rotate through, removing names of storms that cause massive damage" .
by MattR on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

It is my hope & prayer that Hurricane Rita won't cause any loss of life or massive damage.

To all those who live in that area, please be safe!


Azizi


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:26 AM

Bobert,

"Pictures from sattalites suggestn that the ozone layer is being depleated as a result of such burnings..."

Sorry about this, but your info is incorrect- the OZONE hole is SMALLER this year.... There has been a recovery of the ozone in recent years according to satellite data.


Try finding out the facts before you go into your anti-Bush ravings.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:28 AM

btw, the cure for global warming is nuclear winter- all we need to do is nuke a few areas and the weather will balance right out...


(above is sarcasm)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:20 AM

All this talk about cycles has Susu running for her Midol. Thanks guys.

In the meantime, it seems as if our celestial neighbor has shrinking polar caps as well.

Oh I know what it is....it's got to be the exhaust of all the spacecraft that we've been sending up that's causing Mars to heat up. What else could it be? Mother Nature can't be to blame for all of this. We insignificant humans must have had something to do with this......


(Yes dianavan and CarolC....the above was sarcasm.)


DO THOSE DAMN MARTIANS NOT KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING TO THEIR PLANET?


Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:31 AM

"Simplistic argumentation like Bobert's is not helpful for it makes it far too easy to portray the environmentalists as stupid."



Who's portraying?



Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:42 AM

"Last year the hole reached a record 11.6 million square miles. This year saw a slightly smaller 10 million square mile hole at its peak in September, but it is likely to last longer than last year's and spread more harmful ultra-violet radiation over the southern hemisphere, Reuters reports."

technical nit-picking can cloud the issue. We ain't outa the woods yet.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Les in Chorlton
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 01:39 PM

'Pictures from sattalites suggestn that the ozone layer is being depleated as a result of such burnings...'

Isn't ozone depleation caused by organic fluoro and chloro compounds from fridges and freezers?

I think the concensus was summed up well by Wolfgang but I don't suppose knowledge and understanding will stop this thread from becoming a long confused rant will it?

If I was some kind of Christian Fundamentalist I would be seriously worried about those big storms that keep heading for the US, especially heading for Texas!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 02:37 PM

The whole global warming argument seems to me to be "a cause looking for an effect". Every time someone observes an anomaly in nature that could possibly be blamed on global warming, there's someone ready point their finger squarely at it. Nevermind that there are normal fluctuations and recurring natural cycles that could have caused the anomaly, have caused similar anomalies in the past, and will doubtlessly cause them in the future (whether human-caused global warming is present or not). Instead of careful analysis, too many people, scientists included, are simply accepting what they're being told about global warming as a causal agent.

My fear is that as analysis begins to disprove many of the allegations that have been made of global warming as a causal agent, people will begin to adopt a "Boy Who Cried 'Wolf!'" attitude. If the scientists said that the melting of Mount Kilimanjaro's snowcap is due to global warming, and further research has proven that it's the result of very localized deforestation in the immediate vicinity of the mountain itself, then why should we believe them when they point to global warming as a cause for anything? I fear that when some phenomenon occurs for which the blame can incontrovertibly be placed on global warming, nobody will be listening.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 02:46 PM

Bee-dubya-ell,

Good point.


BillD,


A 15% change in one year on a variable that I have been told takes 30 years to be affected by man-made changes seems like something more than "slightly". We are seeing the results of actions 30 years ago-- 1975 or so. When did we stop the use of CFCs?

Present satellite data does not tell us the future duration of the ozone hole.


Les in Chorlton,

"Isn't ozone depleation caused by organic fluoro and chloro compounds from fridges and freezers? "

Never let it be said that facts should interfere with a point of argument...


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:04 PM

Some meteorologist now indicating that Rita is a category 5 hurricane.

See this excerpt from this dailykos diary [by darksyde;Wed Sep 21st, 2005]

Oil Storm Rita {update now category 5}


"UPDATE 1:45 EDT: The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane. Center Pressure is down to 920mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph. LANDFALL SAT 7 AM

Blogs which are tracking; The Oil Drum, Jeff Masters at The Weather Underground, National Weather Center, IPS MeteoStar.

Latest E-mail 12:45 EDT:

Satellite estimates now indicate RITA may in fact have reached CAT 5 Intensity -- although this cannot be confirmed until the Aircraft completes a full sampling of the winds around the entire storm. The Thermal Eye wall temperature gradient is now up to 10°C - indicate of a strong CAT 4 / borderline CAT 5 hurricane. The 25NM Wide eye is currently located near 24.1N/ 85.80W or 700NM SE of Galveston, TX - and is moving west at 10Kts - slightly slower than 12 hours ago. [NOAA 10 AM EDT storm track]"

-snip-

Also see another dailykos diary on this dangerous hurricane by WeatherInsite {Steve Gregory};Wed Sep 21st, 2005}:

Hurricane Rita Now Category 5


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM

The use of CFCs have moved across the border to Mexico. I can only assume that China may be using CFCs.
In the US we have changed refridgerent chemicals but the old stuff is still around and finds its way to garbage dumps to leak for years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM

Let's face it. We do not have a good understanding of the earth's weather system in spite of the fact that many atmospheric scientists have been trying to understand it for many years. That's why we keep sending instruments to Mars to measure it's atmospheric properties. It's a much simpler system than earth's and if we can figure out Mars, maybe it will help us figure out earth. But, we can't even figure out the Martian atmosphere!

That being said, anything that effects our atmosphere is critical to our future existance. So, when most scientists think global warming is occurring and we're at least part of the cause, we'd better pay attention.

Bev and Jerry


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:19 PM

Rita's bump to category 5 is probably due to the influence of a warm-water current in the Gulf called The Loop Current. As she passes west of its influence she'll be moving into slightly cooler water and probably drop back to a category 4 or strong category 3. But don't expect her to drop any lower than that.

We've already had one minor miracle this season when Dennis's maximum winds dropped from 145 mph to 120 mph in a matter of minutes just before landfall here in my own home county. Don't expect to see that happen again.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CapriUni
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 04:06 PM

I know that the Earth goes through natural warming and cooling cycles. I'm willing to concede that that we're in one of those epoch warming cycles, right now. "Greenhouse gasses" in the atmosphere still raise temperatures in local climates. That's been proven through repeatable scientific experiments, several times (such as the fact that American major cities' temperatures are consistently 2-3 degrees F warmer Monday through Friday than they are on the weekends, due to all the cars on the roads).

I also know that cholestorol levels are based, in part, on a person's natural, genetic make-up. But if you're one of the folks who have a family history of high cholestorol levels, I doubt a responsible doctor would say: "Don't worry about your diet. Go ahead and eat all the cheese burgers and deep-fried pork rinds you want, 'cause having fat in your blood is natural for you."

And yes, 30 years ago, the prevailing scientific worry was that the Earth's climate was cooling. ... So more scientists set out to study the atmosphere, and not take it for granted. They discovered that it's warming up, instead. And the more we learn, the more we can refine the experiments, and the more accurate predictions we can make. Just look at your everyday weather forcast on the evening news. A few years ago, any prediction beyond three days into the future was wild guessing... Now, a week's forcast is standard, and more accurate than the three-day forcasts of years ago.

Science -- it's not just for ivory towers, anymore.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 04:20 PM

"...I have been told takes 30 years to be affected"

maybe, bruce...I'd like to know whose data that was. I didn't think that all the effects were that drawn out. I'll see what I can find...

at least old AC and fridges aren't adding as much now.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 06:21 PM

Most people are getting their ideas from newspapers, commentators, etc., where the conclusions often are based on apples and oranges, and the particular ax being ground- not on what was actually said in reports in peer-evaluated reputable journals. Unless one reads these articles, with the bases and data for the author's arguments, AND the qualifications and limits he places on his material, one is unable to evaluate what one hears on CNN, etc.

Much data is still being recovered and evaluated, e. g. the climatic data from cores in Arctic and Antarctic ice, the changes in distribution of plants and animals both long and short term, the interpretation of cyclical climatic events, etc.
Science is built on the accumulation of valid data over a period of time. The mass of data at one point may indicate a certain possible conclusion, but at a later point new data will have modified the former interpretations.
The effect of man on the earth and its climate is evident from the data compiled from ice cores and other sources; not yet fully answered, however, are matters of short term versus long term effects, rate of change, just how much life will be changed if the effects continue, or if certain corrective paths are followed.

Contrary to some opinions, several major industrial concerns have research groups actively studying effects and possible solutions.
Worth watching, for example, are the developments in hydrogen fuel, being investigated by several firms including Shell, and being tested with regard to motor transport by BMW and the Iceland government.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Scoville
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:10 PM

My dad is putting plywood over the windows as we speak. We're north of Houston and aren't expected to get whacked so much by Rita herself as by her edges (the "tornado zone", which isn't much of an improvement over the hurricane itself).

People have short memories. We have horrible storms here every couple of decades--with bad, but less catastrophic ones in between--and everyone talks about how bad they were but then seems shocked when another one comes through. Granted, I don't know that we've managed two Category 5's in one summer lately, but we should certainly know by now that it can happen and surely will at some point. "Some point" being this weekend, I guess.

On the one hand, I do believe in global warming, but I'm not sure I think we can blame this on it. I think it was just our year to get nailed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:37 PM

One thing is certain. Even higher natural gas and gasoline prices in the short term (6 mo.-1 year). And consequently higher prices on every product that requires oil-based energy or supplies for an even longer period.

21 refineries Houston area. Many chemical industries. Very productive offshore oil fields. Etc. and etc.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:50 PM

indeed...we heat with natural gas, and I dread this winter! I know folks who installed some solar cells and also a complex wood stove system a few years ago...I do envy them!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bobert
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:49 PM

I heard this evening that should Rita hit Texas as a Category 5 hurricane that this would be the first time the US has been hit with 2 Category 5 hurricanes in a single season...

Coincidence???

Maybe... Maybe not...

But it does make you think about the wisdom of US bailin' out of the Kioto (sp) Treaty...

Heck, I can't say fir certain that greenhouse gases are heatin' up these waters, that full these hurrincanes, but somethin' that man prolly ain't seen before sho nuff is...

I'd say, even if don't have indesputable evidence here, it's prolly be a good idea to to figure ways to conserve energy and see if that makes a difference... Heck, just conservain' unrenewable energy is a good goal in itself...

BTW, can anyone tell me one componenmt of the Dick Cheney "Energy Policy" other than a "Burn-Baby-Burn" mentality when it comes to fosil fuels???

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:59 PM

Wood?!! My! Our house has two fireplaces. During winter, a cheery log burning on the grate helped warm us. Then my elder daughter, came home from school and informed us that we were guilty of poisoning the atmosphere, destroying the forests, and other crimes. The city enacted strict burning regulations (no outside fires except barbeques, essentially, no trash burning indoors or out). That was over thirty years ago. We haven't lit a fire since.
Now the wood and coal companies are gone and wood has become very expensive from fireplace specialists (still legal, but used only at Christmas).

A very few people with money (therefore they don't need it) supplement with the heat from the earth. Winters are dark here in Canada, so solar heat doesn't get you very far.
Our natural gas and heating oil purveyers are, of course, very happy fellers.

Single family home heating is wasteful. I sometimes visit Hutterite friends (Anabaptists, like Mennonites) at their Colony. They live in duplexes or (mostly) fourplexes, one family to a unit. Heating for groups of these houses is central; a gas furnace-heat exchanger set-up in an central underground room and fluids circulated underground by conduit to the buildings which have heated floors. Very efficient and comfy! Condo towers could be more efficient.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bev and Jerry
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:19 PM

Bobert:

We have not been hit by two Category 5 hurricanes this year. Katrina was downgraded to a Category 4 just before coming ashore (so just imagine what a Category 5 must be like). Rita is a Category 5 at the moment but might be downgraded before coming ashore.

A Category 5 hurricane actually striking the U.S. is a very rare occurence. So far, it has only happened 3 times since 1851. As a matter of fact, a Category 4 hurricane actually striking the U.S. is pretty rare, too. Katrina was only the 18th one since 1851. So, even two Category 4 hurricanes in one year would be pretty spectacular.

Bev and Jerry


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bobert
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:49 PM

Q,

What do *outside* fire regs have to do with heatin' yer home???

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:00 PM

'Outside' fires have to do with contaminating the air, not with heating.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: bobad
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:12 PM

I've never understood why the price of natural gas should rise with the price of oil as it is not dependant on refining capacity nor is it in any way related to petroleum other than it is usually found incidentally when exploring for oil.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Sorcha
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:13 PM

So, goodbye Galveston? Maybe Houston?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:18 PM

...even two Category 4 hurricanes in one year would be pretty spectacular.

In fact, it's never happened before. Last year came pretty close with Charley coming in at a 4 and Ivan dropping from a 4 to a 3 just before landfall.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:29 PM

natural gas cannot be imported much...it has to be liquified, and is an expensive way to go. Hurricanes like this hit right in the heart of the gas production centers.


This is a BIG one folks...3rd most intense on record right now. Wind at 165 MPH, gusts to 175....Pressure below 900 millibars (896, I believe) Gilbert, at 888 was the strongest on record. Nothing to slow it much before it hits near Galveston, and maybe right up the Galveston harbor into Houston, population 5½ million...(New Orleans was 1½ million). Houston IS the energy center of the US...more oil, gas, pipelines, etc than even New Orleans....and Rita is going right through most of the gulf oil rigs that weren't hit by Katrina.

    No one knows exactly what is gonna happen, but you won't like it....


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Scoville
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:30 PM

Galveston is toast. Everything between Galveston Island and South Houston is probably toast, too. I hate to see Galveston take such a hard hit because it's a beautiful old city (by Western U.S. standards) and has lots of wonderful historic buildings.

My friends in Missouri told me today that I was welcome to stay with them but the highways are so backed up I can't leave my house. I'd be on the road when the storm came through. People are nuts, too. I wouldn't want to be traveling alone when everyone is frantic to get out and knows you have all your valuables in the car.

The storm is supposed to be a Category 3 by the time it gets to my house, 70 miles inland from the gulf. Category 3 is still a pretty damned big storm. My friend in Austin said her family is thinking of going to stay with her--they are from South Houston and North Houston--but Austin is supposed to get 80 mph winds and flash-flooding, and Austin is pretty solidly land-locked.

The medical center library kicked everyone out at 3:00 today and closed the flood gates in the outer retaining walls. I don't go back to work until Monday, assuming the warehouse where my office is located still has a roof and I still have an archival collection to work on. Fingers crossed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:39 PM

It has been a long time since natural gas was just incidental. I used to work for Standard Oil NJ (Exxon) and affiliates. In the 1960s, we were actively exploring for large gas reservoirs as well as oil.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:03 PM

bobad - I think the rise in natural gas has something to do with supply and demand. If there isn't much oil available, the cost of natural gas goes up. I think natural gas is also needed to build(or re-build) pipelines. I don't really know. Ask Dick Cheney.

Les - I, too, was thinking it was some kind of wierd karma coming down on Bush but I decided it must not be true because too many innocents were being harmed. Maybe its just all the 'bad vibes' from people outside the U.S. whirling about and searching for Bush in an attempt to destroy him. ;>)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:17 PM

I changed my mind.

I truly think that this is Mother Nature's way of sending a strong message. It looks like she's about to wipe out the oil industry in Texas. GWB must be pissing his pants. I wonder what he thinks about science now?

I guess if people can base their religion on the book of revelations, I can base mine on the power of Nature.

I hope the people of Texas are outa there and safe.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:33 PM

from BlueOregon:

"In Chinese lore, it is said that when the levees break and the rivers flood, that the emperor has lost the "Mandate of Heaven." After all, when an emperor foolishly pursues war at the expense of his people's well-being, then the gods will be unhappy. The levees break, the people rebel, and the government falls. As UC Berkeley professor emeritus Franz Schurmann wrote earlier this year (pre-Katrina):

The disasters occurred especially in the Yellow River region, ancient China's homeland. Confucius put the blame on the power-driven warlords, each of whom insisted they alone had the "Mandate of Heaven," or more correctly, "God Commands" (tianming). Instead of making sure the levees vital for an overwhelming peasant society were secure, for example, the warlords first selfishly pursued their own aggrandizement.
In a more colloquial fashion, a good pal of mine (who shall remain nameless), just wrote me this thought:

Y'all might be amused to note that in Hurricane Katrina Trent Lott lost his home, while Hurricane Rita (which as of today was upgraded to Category 5) is currently on track to wreck straight through Crawford, Texas. Who's got God on their side, now, be-yatch?
And that's the wisdom of the ages."


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:59 PM

Dianavan, most houses in cities from Edmonton to Houston and Los Angeles to Boston now are heated with natural gas. Natural gas pipelines are everywhere. There are 20,000 miles of high volume natural gas pipelines which feed delivery systems.
Look at this map of major natural gas lines in Western States and Alberta.
Another big network covers the East. The map also shows major western gas-producing fields.
Gas Pipelines West

Natural Gas is BIG money! It does not need to be associated with oil to be worth exploring for. Many gas fields have little or no associated oil. Natural gas is NOT refined from oil and is not considered a by-product of oil, but in some reservoirs the two are associated. In some cases the gas is used as a pressure drive for the oil, but the gas is conserved, not discarded (except where there is no market for it, and those places are now rare). Water in the reservoirs often is used as the pressure drive for both.

I am surprised that in a country where we depend so much on natural gas for heating and many uses in industry, so little is known about its production and distribution. Petroleum exploration was my living for 30 years, and is paying for my retirement.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 12:02 AM

Rita is the third most powerful hurricane on record, behind Katrina. Katrina may have been a category 4 at the precise moment it made landfall, but the sheer immensity of the storm meant it outstripped almost anything that had come before it when counting the amount of energy expended.

Even as far inland as Dallas and Fort Worth we expect to get very wet this weekend. And as one who pays flood insurance, I will be paying very close attention.

Try finding out the facts before you go into your anti-Bush ravings.

Ah. . .what would a thread be without BB here to confuse the issues and sling insults at every opportunity? This right after he misstates the situation (as usual).

CFCs (that are very hard on the ozone) may be outlawed in the US, but like so many things, are probably still in use around the world. It's mighty hard to put that technology out of service once you've introduced it to others who feel they will suffer if it is taken away.

SRS


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