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BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA

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Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 03:24 PM
Alice 20 Sep 05 - 03:30 PM
GUEST,rarelamb 20 Sep 05 - 03:43 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 20 Sep 05 - 03:51 PM
Susu's Hubby 20 Sep 05 - 04:48 PM
GUEST,Melani 20 Sep 05 - 06:12 PM
Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM
Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM
Azizi 20 Sep 05 - 08:39 PM
Bobert 20 Sep 05 - 09:05 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 20 Sep 05 - 10:45 PM
Bev and Jerry 21 Sep 05 - 12:16 AM
Wolfgang 21 Sep 05 - 06:29 AM
Donuel 21 Sep 05 - 07:15 AM
GUEST,Whistle Stop 21 Sep 05 - 08:58 AM
Azizi 21 Sep 05 - 09:42 AM
beardedbruce 21 Sep 05 - 10:26 AM
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Susu's Hubby 21 Sep 05 - 11:20 AM
Susu's Hubby 21 Sep 05 - 11:31 AM
Bill D 21 Sep 05 - 11:42 AM
Les in Chorlton 21 Sep 05 - 01:39 PM
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Donuel 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM
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Q (Frank Staplin) 21 Sep 05 - 07:37 PM
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CarolC 27 Sep 05 - 03:39 PM
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Subject: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:24 PM

Is Mother Nature going to sock it to the US Gulf states again?

See these excerpts from a Reuters UK article about [currently]category 2 Hurricane Rita:

"Rita grew from a tropical storm to a hurricane with 85 mph (136 mph) winds as it battered the fragile Keys. All 80,000 residents had been ordered out of the island chain but many stayed behind in boarded-up homes as stormwater submerged parts of the only highway linking them to the Florida mainland.

The hurricane was expected to strengthen further as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico where deadly Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc three weeks ago....


Texas seemed the most likely target for Rita's second strike, but Louisiana would still get the outer bands of the storm during the weekend.

A Louisiana official warned that levees in New Orleans, where hundreds died in Katrina's floods, would fail again if the city were smashed by a new storm surge. Major Ray Nagin suspended plans for some residents to return to the devastated city.

Oil companies only starting to recover from Katrina evacuated Gulf oil rigs. Private forecasters said there was a 40 percent chance that damaging hurricane-force winds would directly affect major Gulf energy production areas.

The Navy began moving its remaining fleet of Katrina relief vessels, including the hospital ship Comfort, away from the Gulf Coast to ride out any potential battering from Rita.

The 1,100 Hurricane Katrina refugees still in Houston's two mass shelters faced another evacuation on Tuesday as the city found itself in the possible path of Rita. They were to be sent to Fort Chafee, Arkansas...."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?

-snip-

Here are my questions to Mudcat scientists & other Mudcat posters: are there more big hurricanes than usual hitting the USA this year, and if so, does global warming have anything to do with this?

My third question is if this hurricane really hits Galveston, Texas or Houston, Texas or wherever, who is in charge of FEMA?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Alice
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:30 PM

The Gulf of Mexico is warmer than usual this year, but the US does get tropical storms and hurricanes every year. Warmer water in the gulf feeds the intensity of any storm or hurricane that moves across it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:43 PM

-I believe it's the 4th busiest on record.

-And if I remember Galvenston had the worst hurricane disaster in teh US.

-I don't believe that we are experiencing man made global warming.

-David Paulison is the interim FEMA director.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 03:51 PM

Whether global warming has anything to do with it is debatable. It's mainly due to a cyclical phenomenon known as the Atlantic heat conveyor. It's important to note that while the number of Atlantic storms is up, the number of Pacific and Indian Ocean storms is actually down. If it were strictly a function of global warming one would expect to see equally increased activity in all oceans.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 04:48 PM

The problem with trying to tie any weather event with global warming is that:

1.) These cycles have been occuring for thousands of years.

2.) We only have about 100 years or less of weather records to try and determine what those cycles are.


There's just not near enough information. Therefore, there will be a huge statistical margin of error to contend with if you're trying to tie one with the other.


In fact, I remember that back in the 70's, scientists were trying to make the case for "global cooling".

I think they're just trying to make the case for their own job security other than trying to figure other secrets that really matter, such as, why does bubble gum lose it's flavor or why don't motorcycles have doors?


Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,Melani
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 06:12 PM

It's enough to make me glad to live in earthquake country instead.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM

Melani, does it have to be either/or? [living in flooding prone areas or living in earthquake country]

I guess people live where they happen to live. And I suppose most people hope for the best. But if you live in such areas, I would hope that people keep alert & aware, prepare as best they can given their {sometimes far too limited resources} and hope [and demand]that the authorities prepare as best they can for the worst and properly execute needed support and servivces in the event of an emergency.

IMO, too often the "authorities" in all levels of government don't prepare as best they can. For instance, hiring incompetent cronies makes it less likely for the proper planning and needed services will occur as soon as they are needed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:03 PM

Here's another excerpt from an online article about Hurricane Rita:

Hurricane Rita Strengthens, Heading to Gulf of Mexico (Update4)
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Rita strengthened en route to the Gulf of Mexico, heading on a path that may threaten the Texas coast and parts of Louisiana devastated by Katrina three weeks earlier.

Rita, a so-called Category 2 storm with 100 mph (166 kph) winds, is moving into the Gulf's warm waters, where it will strengthen in the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said. Rita may reach Category 4 or Category 5, with winds from 131 mph to more than 155 mph, by the time it reaches the Texas coastline this weekend, the center said.

While Rita is forecast to land anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston in Texas, it may veer east and strike Louisiana's coast, the center said. The threat to the region devastated by Katrina prompted New Orleans's mayor to halt plans for residents to return and Texas officials to call for some evacuations.

``We are urging all residents from south Texas to Louisiana to keep watch,'' center meteorologist Robbie Berg said.

Rita, the ninth hurricane of the season, was about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south-southwest of Key West, Florida, as of 5 p.m. local time, the center said. The storm is moving west at about 15 mph (24 kph)."

-snip-

To read the complete article, click Bloomberg.com-Hurricane Rita


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 08:39 PM

Also see this excerpt from a dailykos diary written by a blogger who indicated that he has studied meteorology: Rita: The Next Few Hours Are Critical [by Todd Johnston
Tue Sep 20th, 2005]

"A hurricane's central pressure (CP) is a simple and very effective measure of its strength. Over at the ePluribus Media Community site I'm keeping a running table of Rita's CP, from each 3-hr NWS advisories going back to last night. If you'd like to see the progression, follow the link above.

Starting with the 8:00 a.m. NWS advisory, Rita's CP began decreasing rapidly -- about 1-2 millibars/hour. The difference between a weak hurricane and a strong one is only about 50 millibars, so 1-2 millibars/hour for any length of time spells trouble.

Katrina briefly made landfall in Florida, weakening her quite a bit. But she made it through to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico where she stalled and gained strength.

Rita, however is a 'small' storm in the sense that hurricane force winds only extend outward from her eye about 50 miles. That's roughly 1/3 the size of Katrina. While that is usually good news, it's allowed Rita to slip right in-between Florida and Cuba. She is now southwest of the keys and moving west, and while many hurricanes lose strength during this passage, Rita's central pressure dropped from 978 to 973 mb between 2:00 and 5:00 p.m.

The fact that she is not a big storm may be the best news of all, however the GOM has been warmer than normal for the last 6 weeks. Hurricanes feed off warm surface waters -- that is why what happens next is so important.

If Rita stalls and sits around in the GOM, she will likely strengthen. Over the next few hours watch for 2 things in particular:

Keep track of Rita's CP. If it continues to drop, or stays the same and then drops suddenly, that spells trouble.

See if Rita slows and hangs around the Gulf before making landfall. That will give her time to strengthen.

Hopefully, neither of these will happen. If Rita's central pressure levels out and she keeps moving, she'll probably end up making landfall near eastern Texas as a weak Cat 2 or Cat 1."


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bobert
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 09:05 PM

Well, gol danged....

Seems like the scientists in the other industrialized nations think stongly that the globe is gettin' warmer and that it is the result of increased burnin' of stuff on the Earth's surface, i.e. greenhouses gases....

Pictures from sattalites suggestn that the ozone layer is being depleated as a result of such burnings...

But, yet, the current administartion in the US has searched high and low to find "so-called" scientist to counter the arguments... These so-called scientists are quacks... I know, my late fatetr-in-law was one...

Yeah, he worked for A.P.I., the American Petroleum Istitute, and was frequestly asked to testify before this or that Congressional comitteee about oil spills... His pat answer was, "Don't worry, be happy... Nature has a way of taking care of these things..."

Well, I think it is appropriate that he died of complications from being around too many chemicals.... Not that I would have wished such a fate on this man but it is indeed appropriate...

But, yeah, the rest of the world is tryin' to clean stuff up but the US won't sign on to the Kaoto (sp) Treaty limiting greenhouse gases???

Bush and his scientist think that global warmin' ios some tree hugger's scheme and thwerefore, seein' as it does not work with the profit projections of some of his campaign donators, global warmin' is bunk???

Go figure.... The rest of the world on board and Bush sayin',
"Hey, wait a minute...""

Like that never happened before....

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 10:45 PM

1. There is enough blame for everyone in the Katrina scenario.
2. A federal takeover of the emergency efforts never occurred.

If anyone is still interested in a coherent exposition of the tragedy of errors, read this Washington Post article written by Glasser and Grunwald and printed in the Washington Post Sept. 11, 2005. It is some 12 pages in print form, and is too long to excerpt properly. There is much nonsense on the internet, and this article avoids much of it. Link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/10/AR2005091001529.html
City Chaos

(One point they missed is what I have called in another thread 'the labyrinthine interrelationships of the various governments in the New Orleans metro region'. The mayor, for example, did not have any authority outside of the official (artificial) boundaries of the City of New Orleans, thus he had no jurisdiction over important areas of metro New Orleans with perhaps 40% of the population.)

Now let's see if problems created by Rita can be handled efficiently. At this moment landfall in predicted near Houston, category 4-5.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bev and Jerry
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 12:16 AM

Actually, the number of hurricanes striking the U.S. has not increased in recent years. Both the number and intensity of hurricanes striking the U. S. has remained constant for more than 100 years.

On the other hand, the number and intensity of hurricanes (also called typhoons and cyclones) on a global basis seems to have increased dramatically in recent years. Check out this article in Science Magazine.

Bev and Jerry


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wolfgang
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 06:29 AM

Global warming, causes of global warming, and hurricane cycles are quite different things that get muddled in posts like Bobert's and Hubby's.

(1) You can find close to no scientist who doubts global warming is occuring right now.
(2) You have a strong majority of scientists who think that global warming is caused mainly by human activity, but less than in (1).
(3) Even among those who would agree that global warming is man made there is a large number who think that hurricane cycles are not very much related to global warming. But the same scientists could agree that the number and strength of hurricanes increases right now.

Neither are all scientists who doubt a certain interpretation paid or quacks, nor does an agreement upon a finding mean agreement upon the interpretation.

Simplistic argumentation like Bobert's is not helpful for it makes it far too easy to portray the environmentalists as stupid.

Wolfgang


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:15 AM

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
May I inquire discretly
are you a freak
or part of some design?

first a one
and then Gulf waters
made you one of the
ugly monsters
Will Dick Chertof put you in his little black book.

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
why do you mess with Texas?
give us a break
and make me think you're through.

We aimed HAARP
right at your center
you never stopped
or went off kilter
Is technology just a waste of our time?

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
May I inquire discretly
are you a freak
or part of some design?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,Whistle Stop
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:58 AM

Well said, Wolfgang.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:42 AM

Hurricane Rita is now a category 4 hurricane.

As to the question about the frequency of storms this year, I found this interesting & informative exchange on this Tuesday Sept. 20th 2005 dailykos diary Hurricane Rita To Reach Cat. 3 Within Hours



"...what is the highest letter in the alphabet that was reached in any one season (for naming hurricanes)?.
It seems like R is getting way up there.
by highacidity" on Tue Sep 20th, 2005


****
"Rita is the 17th of the 21 names available this year. 1933 holds the record for Atlantic storms. They had 21 but this was before they were named. So we are getting close to a record. FYI - They use the Greek alphabet if we get a 5th storm after Rita. Alpha, beta, gamma, delta, etc.."
by MattR on Tue Sep 20th, 2005



****

"The letter T I believe is the highest previous letter reached. (Don't know the name or year off the top of my head, sorry!) 1933 had 21 tropical depressions, but they weren't named. This year is likely to match that and then some. Once they get through the twenty-one names, the Greek alphabet is used to name the storms".
by moira977 on Tue Sep 20th, 2005



****

"Looked it up - T is for Tanya in 1995.
by moira977 on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

"Why 21?

Why don't they use all 26 letters of the alphabet when they create the list of names for the year?"
by ethans mom on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

"There are not enough X-names, Z-names, etc. So they say."
by mapantsula on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

"There are 6 sets of names that they rotate through, removing names of storms that cause massive damage" .
by MattR on Tue Sep 20th, 2005

****

It is my hope & prayer that Hurricane Rita won't cause any loss of life or massive damage.

To all those who live in that area, please be safe!


Azizi


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:26 AM

Bobert,

"Pictures from sattalites suggestn that the ozone layer is being depleated as a result of such burnings..."

Sorry about this, but your info is incorrect- the OZONE hole is SMALLER this year.... There has been a recovery of the ozone in recent years according to satellite data.


Try finding out the facts before you go into your anti-Bush ravings.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:28 AM

btw, the cure for global warming is nuclear winter- all we need to do is nuke a few areas and the weather will balance right out...


(above is sarcasm)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:20 AM

All this talk about cycles has Susu running for her Midol. Thanks guys.

In the meantime, it seems as if our celestial neighbor has shrinking polar caps as well.

Oh I know what it is....it's got to be the exhaust of all the spacecraft that we've been sending up that's causing Mars to heat up. What else could it be? Mother Nature can't be to blame for all of this. We insignificant humans must have had something to do with this......


(Yes dianavan and CarolC....the above was sarcasm.)


DO THOSE DAMN MARTIANS NOT KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING TO THEIR PLANET?


Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:31 AM

"Simplistic argumentation like Bobert's is not helpful for it makes it far too easy to portray the environmentalists as stupid."



Who's portraying?



Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:42 AM

"Last year the hole reached a record 11.6 million square miles. This year saw a slightly smaller 10 million square mile hole at its peak in September, but it is likely to last longer than last year's and spread more harmful ultra-violet radiation over the southern hemisphere, Reuters reports."

technical nit-picking can cloud the issue. We ain't outa the woods yet.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Les in Chorlton
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 01:39 PM

'Pictures from sattalites suggestn that the ozone layer is being depleated as a result of such burnings...'

Isn't ozone depleation caused by organic fluoro and chloro compounds from fridges and freezers?

I think the concensus was summed up well by Wolfgang but I don't suppose knowledge and understanding will stop this thread from becoming a long confused rant will it?

If I was some kind of Christian Fundamentalist I would be seriously worried about those big storms that keep heading for the US, especially heading for Texas!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 02:37 PM

The whole global warming argument seems to me to be "a cause looking for an effect". Every time someone observes an anomaly in nature that could possibly be blamed on global warming, there's someone ready point their finger squarely at it. Nevermind that there are normal fluctuations and recurring natural cycles that could have caused the anomaly, have caused similar anomalies in the past, and will doubtlessly cause them in the future (whether human-caused global warming is present or not). Instead of careful analysis, too many people, scientists included, are simply accepting what they're being told about global warming as a causal agent.

My fear is that as analysis begins to disprove many of the allegations that have been made of global warming as a causal agent, people will begin to adopt a "Boy Who Cried 'Wolf!'" attitude. If the scientists said that the melting of Mount Kilimanjaro's snowcap is due to global warming, and further research has proven that it's the result of very localized deforestation in the immediate vicinity of the mountain itself, then why should we believe them when they point to global warming as a cause for anything? I fear that when some phenomenon occurs for which the blame can incontrovertibly be placed on global warming, nobody will be listening.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 02:46 PM

Bee-dubya-ell,

Good point.


BillD,


A 15% change in one year on a variable that I have been told takes 30 years to be affected by man-made changes seems like something more than "slightly". We are seeing the results of actions 30 years ago-- 1975 or so. When did we stop the use of CFCs?

Present satellite data does not tell us the future duration of the ozone hole.


Les in Chorlton,

"Isn't ozone depleation caused by organic fluoro and chloro compounds from fridges and freezers? "

Never let it be said that facts should interfere with a point of argument...


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:04 PM

Some meteorologist now indicating that Rita is a category 5 hurricane.

See this excerpt from this dailykos diary [by darksyde;Wed Sep 21st, 2005]

Oil Storm Rita {update now category 5}


"UPDATE 1:45 EDT: The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane. Center Pressure is down to 920mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph. LANDFALL SAT 7 AM

Blogs which are tracking; The Oil Drum, Jeff Masters at The Weather Underground, National Weather Center, IPS MeteoStar.

Latest E-mail 12:45 EDT:

Satellite estimates now indicate RITA may in fact have reached CAT 5 Intensity -- although this cannot be confirmed until the Aircraft completes a full sampling of the winds around the entire storm. The Thermal Eye wall temperature gradient is now up to 10°C - indicate of a strong CAT 4 / borderline CAT 5 hurricane. The 25NM Wide eye is currently located near 24.1N/ 85.80W or 700NM SE of Galveston, TX - and is moving west at 10Kts - slightly slower than 12 hours ago. [NOAA 10 AM EDT storm track]"

-snip-

Also see another dailykos diary on this dangerous hurricane by WeatherInsite {Steve Gregory};Wed Sep 21st, 2005}:

Hurricane Rita Now Category 5


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM

The use of CFCs have moved across the border to Mexico. I can only assume that China may be using CFCs.
In the US we have changed refridgerent chemicals but the old stuff is still around and finds its way to garbage dumps to leak for years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:06 PM

Let's face it. We do not have a good understanding of the earth's weather system in spite of the fact that many atmospheric scientists have been trying to understand it for many years. That's why we keep sending instruments to Mars to measure it's atmospheric properties. It's a much simpler system than earth's and if we can figure out Mars, maybe it will help us figure out earth. But, we can't even figure out the Martian atmosphere!

That being said, anything that effects our atmosphere is critical to our future existance. So, when most scientists think global warming is occurring and we're at least part of the cause, we'd better pay attention.

Bev and Jerry


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 03:19 PM

Rita's bump to category 5 is probably due to the influence of a warm-water current in the Gulf called The Loop Current. As she passes west of its influence she'll be moving into slightly cooler water and probably drop back to a category 4 or strong category 3. But don't expect her to drop any lower than that.

We've already had one minor miracle this season when Dennis's maximum winds dropped from 145 mph to 120 mph in a matter of minutes just before landfall here in my own home county. Don't expect to see that happen again.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CapriUni
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 04:06 PM

I know that the Earth goes through natural warming and cooling cycles. I'm willing to concede that that we're in one of those epoch warming cycles, right now. "Greenhouse gasses" in the atmosphere still raise temperatures in local climates. That's been proven through repeatable scientific experiments, several times (such as the fact that American major cities' temperatures are consistently 2-3 degrees F warmer Monday through Friday than they are on the weekends, due to all the cars on the roads).

I also know that cholestorol levels are based, in part, on a person's natural, genetic make-up. But if you're one of the folks who have a family history of high cholestorol levels, I doubt a responsible doctor would say: "Don't worry about your diet. Go ahead and eat all the cheese burgers and deep-fried pork rinds you want, 'cause having fat in your blood is natural for you."

And yes, 30 years ago, the prevailing scientific worry was that the Earth's climate was cooling. ... So more scientists set out to study the atmosphere, and not take it for granted. They discovered that it's warming up, instead. And the more we learn, the more we can refine the experiments, and the more accurate predictions we can make. Just look at your everyday weather forcast on the evening news. A few years ago, any prediction beyond three days into the future was wild guessing... Now, a week's forcast is standard, and more accurate than the three-day forcasts of years ago.

Science -- it's not just for ivory towers, anymore.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 04:20 PM

"...I have been told takes 30 years to be affected"

maybe, bruce...I'd like to know whose data that was. I didn't think that all the effects were that drawn out. I'll see what I can find...

at least old AC and fridges aren't adding as much now.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 06:21 PM

Most people are getting their ideas from newspapers, commentators, etc., where the conclusions often are based on apples and oranges, and the particular ax being ground- not on what was actually said in reports in peer-evaluated reputable journals. Unless one reads these articles, with the bases and data for the author's arguments, AND the qualifications and limits he places on his material, one is unable to evaluate what one hears on CNN, etc.

Much data is still being recovered and evaluated, e. g. the climatic data from cores in Arctic and Antarctic ice, the changes in distribution of plants and animals both long and short term, the interpretation of cyclical climatic events, etc.
Science is built on the accumulation of valid data over a period of time. The mass of data at one point may indicate a certain possible conclusion, but at a later point new data will have modified the former interpretations.
The effect of man on the earth and its climate is evident from the data compiled from ice cores and other sources; not yet fully answered, however, are matters of short term versus long term effects, rate of change, just how much life will be changed if the effects continue, or if certain corrective paths are followed.

Contrary to some opinions, several major industrial concerns have research groups actively studying effects and possible solutions.
Worth watching, for example, are the developments in hydrogen fuel, being investigated by several firms including Shell, and being tested with regard to motor transport by BMW and the Iceland government.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Scoville
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:10 PM

My dad is putting plywood over the windows as we speak. We're north of Houston and aren't expected to get whacked so much by Rita herself as by her edges (the "tornado zone", which isn't much of an improvement over the hurricane itself).

People have short memories. We have horrible storms here every couple of decades--with bad, but less catastrophic ones in between--and everyone talks about how bad they were but then seems shocked when another one comes through. Granted, I don't know that we've managed two Category 5's in one summer lately, but we should certainly know by now that it can happen and surely will at some point. "Some point" being this weekend, I guess.

On the one hand, I do believe in global warming, but I'm not sure I think we can blame this on it. I think it was just our year to get nailed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:37 PM

One thing is certain. Even higher natural gas and gasoline prices in the short term (6 mo.-1 year). And consequently higher prices on every product that requires oil-based energy or supplies for an even longer period.

21 refineries Houston area. Many chemical industries. Very productive offshore oil fields. Etc. and etc.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 07:50 PM

indeed...we heat with natural gas, and I dread this winter! I know folks who installed some solar cells and also a complex wood stove system a few years ago...I do envy them!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bobert
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:49 PM

I heard this evening that should Rita hit Texas as a Category 5 hurricane that this would be the first time the US has been hit with 2 Category 5 hurricanes in a single season...

Coincidence???

Maybe... Maybe not...

But it does make you think about the wisdom of US bailin' out of the Kioto (sp) Treaty...

Heck, I can't say fir certain that greenhouse gases are heatin' up these waters, that full these hurrincanes, but somethin' that man prolly ain't seen before sho nuff is...

I'd say, even if don't have indesputable evidence here, it's prolly be a good idea to to figure ways to conserve energy and see if that makes a difference... Heck, just conservain' unrenewable energy is a good goal in itself...

BTW, can anyone tell me one componenmt of the Dick Cheney "Energy Policy" other than a "Burn-Baby-Burn" mentality when it comes to fosil fuels???

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 08:59 PM

Wood?!! My! Our house has two fireplaces. During winter, a cheery log burning on the grate helped warm us. Then my elder daughter, came home from school and informed us that we were guilty of poisoning the atmosphere, destroying the forests, and other crimes. The city enacted strict burning regulations (no outside fires except barbeques, essentially, no trash burning indoors or out). That was over thirty years ago. We haven't lit a fire since.
Now the wood and coal companies are gone and wood has become very expensive from fireplace specialists (still legal, but used only at Christmas).

A very few people with money (therefore they don't need it) supplement with the heat from the earth. Winters are dark here in Canada, so solar heat doesn't get you very far.
Our natural gas and heating oil purveyers are, of course, very happy fellers.

Single family home heating is wasteful. I sometimes visit Hutterite friends (Anabaptists, like Mennonites) at their Colony. They live in duplexes or (mostly) fourplexes, one family to a unit. Heating for groups of these houses is central; a gas furnace-heat exchanger set-up in an central underground room and fluids circulated underground by conduit to the buildings which have heated floors. Very efficient and comfy! Condo towers could be more efficient.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bev and Jerry
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:19 PM

Bobert:

We have not been hit by two Category 5 hurricanes this year. Katrina was downgraded to a Category 4 just before coming ashore (so just imagine what a Category 5 must be like). Rita is a Category 5 at the moment but might be downgraded before coming ashore.

A Category 5 hurricane actually striking the U.S. is a very rare occurence. So far, it has only happened 3 times since 1851. As a matter of fact, a Category 4 hurricane actually striking the U.S. is pretty rare, too. Katrina was only the 18th one since 1851. So, even two Category 4 hurricanes in one year would be pretty spectacular.

Bev and Jerry


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bobert
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:49 PM

Q,

What do *outside* fire regs have to do with heatin' yer home???

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:00 PM

'Outside' fires have to do with contaminating the air, not with heating.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: bobad
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:12 PM

I've never understood why the price of natural gas should rise with the price of oil as it is not dependant on refining capacity nor is it in any way related to petroleum other than it is usually found incidentally when exploring for oil.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Sorcha
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:13 PM

So, goodbye Galveston? Maybe Houston?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:18 PM

...even two Category 4 hurricanes in one year would be pretty spectacular.

In fact, it's never happened before. Last year came pretty close with Charley coming in at a 4 and Ivan dropping from a 4 to a 3 just before landfall.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:29 PM

natural gas cannot be imported much...it has to be liquified, and is an expensive way to go. Hurricanes like this hit right in the heart of the gas production centers.


This is a BIG one folks...3rd most intense on record right now. Wind at 165 MPH, gusts to 175....Pressure below 900 millibars (896, I believe) Gilbert, at 888 was the strongest on record. Nothing to slow it much before it hits near Galveston, and maybe right up the Galveston harbor into Houston, population 5½ million...(New Orleans was 1½ million). Houston IS the energy center of the US...more oil, gas, pipelines, etc than even New Orleans....and Rita is going right through most of the gulf oil rigs that weren't hit by Katrina.

    No one knows exactly what is gonna happen, but you won't like it....


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Scoville
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:30 PM

Galveston is toast. Everything between Galveston Island and South Houston is probably toast, too. I hate to see Galveston take such a hard hit because it's a beautiful old city (by Western U.S. standards) and has lots of wonderful historic buildings.

My friends in Missouri told me today that I was welcome to stay with them but the highways are so backed up I can't leave my house. I'd be on the road when the storm came through. People are nuts, too. I wouldn't want to be traveling alone when everyone is frantic to get out and knows you have all your valuables in the car.

The storm is supposed to be a Category 3 by the time it gets to my house, 70 miles inland from the gulf. Category 3 is still a pretty damned big storm. My friend in Austin said her family is thinking of going to stay with her--they are from South Houston and North Houston--but Austin is supposed to get 80 mph winds and flash-flooding, and Austin is pretty solidly land-locked.

The medical center library kicked everyone out at 3:00 today and closed the flood gates in the outer retaining walls. I don't go back to work until Monday, assuming the warehouse where my office is located still has a roof and I still have an archival collection to work on. Fingers crossed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 10:39 PM

It has been a long time since natural gas was just incidental. I used to work for Standard Oil NJ (Exxon) and affiliates. In the 1960s, we were actively exploring for large gas reservoirs as well as oil.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:03 PM

bobad - I think the rise in natural gas has something to do with supply and demand. If there isn't much oil available, the cost of natural gas goes up. I think natural gas is also needed to build(or re-build) pipelines. I don't really know. Ask Dick Cheney.

Les - I, too, was thinking it was some kind of wierd karma coming down on Bush but I decided it must not be true because too many innocents were being harmed. Maybe its just all the 'bad vibes' from people outside the U.S. whirling about and searching for Bush in an attempt to destroy him. ;>)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:17 PM

I changed my mind.

I truly think that this is Mother Nature's way of sending a strong message. It looks like she's about to wipe out the oil industry in Texas. GWB must be pissing his pants. I wonder what he thinks about science now?

I guess if people can base their religion on the book of revelations, I can base mine on the power of Nature.

I hope the people of Texas are outa there and safe.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:33 PM

from BlueOregon:

"In Chinese lore, it is said that when the levees break and the rivers flood, that the emperor has lost the "Mandate of Heaven." After all, when an emperor foolishly pursues war at the expense of his people's well-being, then the gods will be unhappy. The levees break, the people rebel, and the government falls. As UC Berkeley professor emeritus Franz Schurmann wrote earlier this year (pre-Katrina):

The disasters occurred especially in the Yellow River region, ancient China's homeland. Confucius put the blame on the power-driven warlords, each of whom insisted they alone had the "Mandate of Heaven," or more correctly, "God Commands" (tianming). Instead of making sure the levees vital for an overwhelming peasant society were secure, for example, the warlords first selfishly pursued their own aggrandizement.
In a more colloquial fashion, a good pal of mine (who shall remain nameless), just wrote me this thought:

Y'all might be amused to note that in Hurricane Katrina Trent Lott lost his home, while Hurricane Rita (which as of today was upgraded to Category 5) is currently on track to wreck straight through Crawford, Texas. Who's got God on their side, now, be-yatch?
And that's the wisdom of the ages."


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 11:59 PM

Dianavan, most houses in cities from Edmonton to Houston and Los Angeles to Boston now are heated with natural gas. Natural gas pipelines are everywhere. There are 20,000 miles of high volume natural gas pipelines which feed delivery systems.
Look at this map of major natural gas lines in Western States and Alberta.
Another big network covers the East. The map also shows major western gas-producing fields.
Gas Pipelines West

Natural Gas is BIG money! It does not need to be associated with oil to be worth exploring for. Many gas fields have little or no associated oil. Natural gas is NOT refined from oil and is not considered a by-product of oil, but in some reservoirs the two are associated. In some cases the gas is used as a pressure drive for the oil, but the gas is conserved, not discarded (except where there is no market for it, and those places are now rare). Water in the reservoirs often is used as the pressure drive for both.

I am surprised that in a country where we depend so much on natural gas for heating and many uses in industry, so little is known about its production and distribution. Petroleum exploration was my living for 30 years, and is paying for my retirement.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 12:02 AM

Rita is the third most powerful hurricane on record, behind Katrina. Katrina may have been a category 4 at the precise moment it made landfall, but the sheer immensity of the storm meant it outstripped almost anything that had come before it when counting the amount of energy expended.

Even as far inland as Dallas and Fort Worth we expect to get very wet this weekend. And as one who pays flood insurance, I will be paying very close attention.

Try finding out the facts before you go into your anti-Bush ravings.

Ah. . .what would a thread be without BB here to confuse the issues and sling insults at every opportunity? This right after he misstates the situation (as usual).

CFCs (that are very hard on the ozone) may be outlawed in the US, but like so many things, are probably still in use around the world. It's mighty hard to put that technology out of service once you've introduced it to others who feel they will suffer if it is taken away.

SRS


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 12:14 AM

Q - Thanks for the info but I never thought that natural gas was refined from oil or that it was a by-product of oil.

What I do believe is that Cheney is interested in the Alberta oil fields and that his primary interest is in pipelines. Kinder Morgan is interested in acquiring Terasen gas (they may have already bought it). I have read that natural gas is needed to build Cheney's pipeline. I assumed that Cheney and Kinder Morgan were in cahoots.

BTW - My hot water heating system is powered by natural gas. I am not looking forward to a price increase especially if it means my hard earned dollars are heading south.

BTW - George Bush and Dick Cheney no longer have a mandate from heaven.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CapriUni
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 04:10 AM

BTW - George Bush and Dick Cheney no longer have a mandate from heaven

Frankly, I don't think they ever did... without slinging insults and curses about them, our goverment is supposed to be founded on a mandate from the people.

There's another election cycle coming up next year. We'll get an inkling of how strong Bush and Cheney's mandate is, then.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: sapper82
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 05:39 AM

I don't want to be accused of being alarmist, but has anyone else noted this?
Is that another one building up to the East of Cuba?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 08:05 AM

The Rita storm has reached the theoretical limit of maximum intensity.
As a monster it has no where to go but down, however slightly.


I called it a monster when it was still a cat 1 storm...

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
May I inquire discretly
are you a freak
or part of some design?

first a one
and then Gulf waters
made you one of the
ugly MONSTERS.
Will Michael Chertof put you in his little black book.

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
why do you mess with Texas?
give us a break
and make me think you're through.

We aimed HAARP
right at your center
you never stopped
or went off kilter
Is technology just a waste of our time?

Ugly Rita, Hurricaine
May I inquire discretly
are you a freak
or part of some design?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 09:08 AM

SRS,

"Ah. . .what would a thread be without BB here to confuse the issues and sling insults at every opportunity? "

So, do you claim his false statement is a fact, or that his ravoings are NOT anti-Bush? Pick at least one.

Is asking for people to not falsify the situation "confusing" to you?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 09:13 AM

Have you people done something to upset Allah?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,G
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 09:33 AM

beardedbruce, any fact here will be falsified if it can be used to bash GWB. I am not his greatest fan but I do like hanging with facts.

People! Do some research, the hole in the Ozone is now much smaller than in previous years. This FACT is a result of surveys accomplished in the past few weeks.

Some of you are really getting screwed - you have "hot water heaters"
while here in the midwest our hot water has already been heated.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 09:39 AM

Being from Texas, I can say this.

Houston, being the place that it is, is probably one of the few places where you have to worry about contracting West Nile Virus on Christmas day. Saying that, the 1 million+ people currently trying to get out of the Houston area aren't fleeing from the Hurricane.

They all, yesterday, came to the realization that "OMG---I'm in Houston."   ;-)


Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:39 AM

Beardedbruce, it is your general approach to anything remotely intellectual that rubs me the wrong way. Your choice of sources and your interpretation of them are so offputting that I don't read many of your posts at all or I'd be wasting my time all day long trying to get you to use reasonable sources, quote them correctly, interpret them reasonably, or to respond to the topic at hand and not attack the messenger.

I'm sure you'll spout off and attack now, using your own personal fuzzy logic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:43 AM

I illustrated this quote from bin Laden 3 years ago that could fit the superstition that Guest referred to as "upstting Allah".

http://www.angelfire.com/md2/customviolins/judges.jpg


...................................................


Personally I feel that Rita is not going to obey the computer models for landfall. I think it will come much closer to Louisiana than predicted.


................

Now I know people here by in large do not believe that scaler energy exists, much less controlable by human technology, but if it does exist... the evidence for such energies are accompanied by a huge fireball.
Such a huge fireball was witnessed over the ocean by Florida residents yesterday. (there are many links to this incident)

*If the US has scaler transmitters to influence hurricaine behavior one would think we would try to steer it into Mexico. Short of that perhaps it would be a shorter route to steer it back into Louisiana and spare the Tesas Gas infrastructure.

(just a thought inspired by some peculiar conincidences)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:45 AM

again I post the website for Lou's Weather Watch    ...more than you ever want to know about the storms and possibilities, with links to everything relevant.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:47 AM

Here's a repost from Weather Underground

"We continue to live history as this incredible Hurricane Season of 2005 unfolds more stunning surprises. Rita has peaked in intensity as the third strongest hurricane of all time, with a pressure of 897 mb and 175 mph winds. She is on the decline now, as the 7:30 am hurricane hunter mission found a pressure of "only" 907 mb and winds 5 mph weaker. The hurricane hunters also found evidence of a concentric eyewall forming outside of the main inner eyewall, and the inner eyewall had begun to take on an elliptical shape. All these signs indicate that Rita will continue to weaken today as her inner eyewall collapses and an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Additionally, Rita is about to leave the vicinity of a warm eddy of Gulf water called the Loop Current that has been aiding her intensification. Also, 10 knots of shear has developed on her south side, thanks to the fact that the upper-level high pressure system that was providing such excellent outflow for Rita has now shifted to the southeast of the storm. All these signs point to a substantial weakening trend for Rita that will continue through Friday and probably reduce her to a Category 4 hurricane. The GFDL forecast model predicts that this weakening trend will continue until landfall Saturday, when Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane.

While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like her weaker sister Katrina did, will still bring a Category 5 level storm surge along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 20 - 25 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont will be inundated, and the flood waters will reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park...

Where will Rita go?
The computer models made a modest shift eastwards this morning, calling for a landfall between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border. The Hurricane Center shifted their landfall point as well, but not as far as the model consensus. The models have been flip-flopping frequently, and it is not unreasonable to suppose that they will shift the landfall point 50 or so miles further west again this afternoon. However, a landfall within 100 miles of Galveston seems to be the the best call. Landfall will still occur sometime Saturday, but this may be afternoon instead of morning, as the storm is moving slower than before.

Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north..."


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:47 AM

(sapper82, that is Phillipe out there, not predicted to bother us much)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:50 AM

I'm praying and sending good vibes of protection for all in the vicinity of this terrible storm.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: sapper82
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 12:05 PM

Bloody hope not Bill!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 01:11 PM

SRS,

YOU are the one who has stated that only facts that apriori supported your viewpoint could be considered valid. I fail to see where you have any complaint about my pointing out when someone says something is larger when all the rest of the world has agreed it is smaller.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 01:35 PM

It should be pointed out that "Weather Underground" articles are by Jeff Masters, who is a trained meteorologist.
Most blogs are full of garbage, but this source is informed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 03:37 PM

By now, officials should know that mass evacuations over 2-3 days from large urban centers are impossible. Four million in metro Houston. 'Mandatory' evacuation from low-lying areas only ordered at 6:00AM today (Sept. 22).

Gridlock on the highway (and at the airport). Sad to see traffic frozen on the highways.
Cars running out of gas. Gas station tanks empty and shut down. Summer heat. Four lanes of Hell. Lanes in to Houston not changed to outward as of this hour, but that would just lead to gridlock further up the road. The police chief sounds optimistic, but we shall see.
How many will die on the road?

Thirty-six hours to landfall?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 03:49 PM

yep....and then, if all is 'moderately' ok afterwards, all those people will want/need to come BACK to Houston...that's, lessee..several million MORE auto trips at slow, tedious speeds, using MORE fuel. Some of these people may hardly get OUT of their vehicles for a week. 5 million is a lot of bodies to put anywhere,...even for a few days.

It is not a pretty picture. .....and New Orleans may well get enough rain and storm surge to undo a lot of the progress...and flooding up as far as Dallas as this thing dumps gulf water way inland.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wesley S
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 04:26 PM

We're on some high ground here in Ft Worth so I'm not concerned about flooding at our house. However we have a bigassed pecan tree in our back yard - and it's old too. I hope it doesn't end up in our bedroom after Rita gets through with us.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CarolC
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 04:45 PM

Good luck to all of you who are in the path of Hurricane Rita.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 06:03 PM

The highway was strangely quiet when I was out on I-20 an hour or two ago. I have this vision of a sea of autos descending on the Metroplex. I went to the pet store for an extra dog kennel (several folks from Houston have already stopped there, they said), stopped by Albertson (most of the drinking water is gone from the shelves), stopped by my other small grocery store--they're doing fine except they're out of rice. The big highway signs that usually alert travelers to accidents 20 miles ahead or to Amber alerts are posting a phone number for evacuees to find local hotels.

I have kennels for the cats and the dogs now, in case my creek floods and I have to leave for a while. We'll have some stuff prepacked and I'll load the computers and pets and head over to my ex's where the kids spend the weekend anyway. He's on higher ground.

I haven't been able to reach my Hurricane Katrina family at their shelter since early yesterday. The cell phones in the area are so jammed up that they're not working well and I think there are so many folks trying to use the landline phone at the shelter that they haven't been able to call. Today I have wrapped up my storm preparations, and I'll drive over and check on them tomorrow. They're looking for housing now that they've cleared the FEMA and Texas housing folks.

UT System is asking for folks to house other UT System folks if necessary. There is a campus in Galveston, and in Houston.

All of this leads up to the old adage Texans should have remembered: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished.

SRS


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 07:00 PM

yep...Texas did MORE than their share last month. Ah, well...Bush has promised to reimburse them....(just as soon as the budget is balanced, I suppose)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 12:58 AM

Port Arthur and towns 30 miles inland of Port Arthur will be underwater by Saturday.

Jeez if the US loses six more large ports we will be out of business.

Pictures of the 60-100 mile bumper to bumper standstill traffic was more frightening than any video of those idiot reporters standing in high wind.

The mayor of Galveston claims that all the personal effects washing up on their shore is from the Katrina storm.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 08:36 AM

A bus of elderly evacuees had an explosion and burned 15 miles south of Dallas. I assume an elederly person had an oxygen tank and someone smoked. The traffic is at a standstill.
Yesterday I feared the decision to close all exits on the evacuation route would turn into this roadway nightmare.
The side of the highway is a mass of dead cars with empty tanks. A last minute plan to get tanker trucks or air lift fuel seems to have broken down. Trucks can't can't move any faster than 5 MPH in the traffic jams. The military fuel bladders are in Iraq.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 08:51 AM

"The military fuel bladders are in Iraq."


This has absolutly nothing to do with anything, Donuel. There are fuel truck trying to make it up and down I-45 but the traffic is so congested, they're having trouble trying to make it through. Even the emergency personnel trying to get to the scene of the accident are having a tough time trying to get there through the traffic.

Stop trying to continue to turn a bad situation into a political goldmine for you and your buddies. It's been tried again and again and to no avail all it does is make you look like an opportunistic idiot trying to forward a specific agenda.

On second thought, go right ahead and continue what you're doing. You'll insure a republican administration for many years to come.


Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 10:45 AM

Hey, SH, if the shoe fits. . .


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 11:22 AM

We all know who will get rich in the unbid contract political gold mines.

Meanwhile CNN did it again. Right in the middle of a tornado warning for Louisiana and the doppler radar pictures the weather person was cut off the air and a video of the Texas Govenor was shown explaining how successful the evacuation is and how he will no tolerate lawlessness.

CNN has to learn from its mistakes that tornado warning whould take precedent over political speeches.

3 Weeks ago CNN cut off weather reporters who tried to tell people how tools to cut through your roof might save their life.

CNN is a valuable resource in emergencies overall but defer too often to political feel good photo ops at inopportune moments.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wesley S
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 11:24 AM

The news reports we've heard here on TV in Ft Worth say that the bus explosion was started by sparks from the brakes of the bus. And that's what touched off the oxygen tanks. At least 25 confirmed dead so far.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wesley S
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 11:47 AM

And now more levee breaks in New Orleans have been reported.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 11:53 AM

The Army Corps has their own language; such as overtopping a levee is not a levee break.

Dewatering is pumping water out
Rewatering is a flood.

Just the 9th ward is under waist deep water so far but no remedy can be attempted for at least 20 hours.

So we have a small 30 foot overtopping resulting in a rewatering of the 9th ward which is already depopulated.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 12:15 PM

No levee breaks yet, one repaired break has water flowing over the point of repair in a 30' wide section. However, prolonged flowing will could result in further erosion.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 01:26 PM

There is some good news at least. President Bush flew into Texas breifly for a photo op in which he said "our job is to pray for and assist the hurricaine victims".




.............

If FEMA can't have it's cabinate post back, at least a new position could be created such as the secretary of federal prayer assistence.

Cartoons in the making:

Chickens come home to roost
Levee o 'matic
Row vs. wade

Hell - picture of burning gas atop the Port Arthur flood at night


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wesley S
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 01:47 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/23/nola.levees/index.html/


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 02:04 PM

Rita is now category 3.

SRS


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 02:21 PM

Responsibility for the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal is Federal.
This is the canal leaking again into the Ninth Ward of New Orleans and St. Bernard Parish. It is part of the Navigable Waters of the United States.

I became interested because changes to a drawbridge over the canal were published in the National Register (federal government). Also found was discussion of the construction of a controversial new lock on the canal, being built by the Corps of Engineers at a cost of 748 million. NO money was provided for flood control. The lock is a pork-barrel project of the Louisiana federal congressional delegation and the Corps of Engineers.

It takes a bit of searching because of the circuitous and gobbledegooked compilation of regulations, but see "Navigation and Navigable Waters, Title 33."
Three Federal Agencies are involved:
Department of Transportation
Corps of the Army Corps of Engineers
Coast Guard, Dept. of Homeland Security

Others marginally involved in arriving at decisions on this particular waterway, besides the federal government and the Congressional pork-barrellers, are the Port of New Orleans and the State of Louisiana. The City of New Orleans is at fault to the extent that they didn't holler loud enough for the Federal Government and Congress to take action on flood control long ago. There was some discussion of the possibility of jobs to the denizens of the Ninth Ward.

The indexes to sections of Title 33 may be searched for here (don't get lost- it's a morass):
http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text-idx?sid=ff3f8550c6d45e5e8c101bd08678bf87&c=ecfr&tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title33/33tab_02.tpl
Title 33 Navigation
(I hope that works)

A column on the construction of the lock is here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/07/AR2005090702462_pf.html"> Questionable Projects

The Port of New Orleans also seems to have been involved in pork-barrelling proposals.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 02:30 PM

Sorry- my eyes are glazed going through all that stuff. Don't know what is wrong with the link to Title 33

Lock article-
Questionable projects


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,reggie miles
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 09:46 PM

Have you ever written a topical song and had it's impact fade due to the subject becoming somewhat outdated? Now that the current administration has placed David (Duct Tape) Paulison in charge of FEMA I figure they've just given my song a new lease on life. With a character like this guy now in charge of FEMA, I'm certain that I can look forward to years of great inspiration for even more songs. ;o)

for more info about Duct Tape Dave click here   

Duct and Cover Reggie Miles © 2004

The threat of war is loomin',
Anthrax bombs may soon be zoomin',
To your bedrooms in the suburbs but don't despair.

From deep within his mountain bunker,
Where Gee Dubbya's gonna hunker,
A solution to our dilemma he's sure to share.

Our best scientific minds,
Were charged to seek and find,
An all American answer to our plight,

And with the billions spent,
On defense research by government,
They finally discovered one that works just right.

Yes they've found it girls and boys.
Protection from those evil toys,
Affordable and available throughout the land,

Yankee ingenuity,
Has triumphed once again you see,
Providing safety to every woman, child, and man.

And what miracle is this,
That secures our freedom bliss,
And ensures all our blessed liberties?

What treasure is it, made by man,
That can do, what no other can,
This creation of our modern techno-lull-ogies?

It's the simplest things they say,
That can always save the day,
And it's oh so very true in this case too.

You needn't build a big bomb shelter,
You can avoid the helter skelter.
Listen closely here is what they say to do.

Just duct tape and cover your windows and your door,
With plastic sheeting you can buy at any hardware store.

It's an easy thing to do no matter if you're rich or poor,
And much cleaner than crawling 'neath your desk down on all four.

It's a lesson we've all learned in school, fifty years ago.
When we feared that the idea of droppin' A-bombs would grow.

They've changed the words to suit our times.
Yesterday's duck and cover rhymes.
Are now just duct tape and cover instead.

It kind of makes you wonder,
Why Gee Dubbya's way down under,
Neath the mountain in his little hidy hole.

When all he needs to do,
Is just follow me or you,
To buy some plastic sheeting and some duct tape by the roll.

Then he could duct tape and cover the Whitehouse windows and door,
With plastic easily bought from any hardware store.

No need to kiss his ass goodbye,
When missiles fall down from the sky,

When he can duct tape and cover instead.

They've changed the words to suit our times.
Yesterday's duck and cover rhymes.
Are now just duct tape and cover instead.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 11:41 AM

Azizi - "...does global warming have anything to do with this?"

Many scientists are saying that global warming does not create the hurricane but that it increases the strength of the hurricane and also produces more rain during the storm.

They are saying that the use of fossil fuels are warming the earth and most especially the seas where the the hurricane gains its strength.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Bill D
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 12:52 PM

just looked at this thread again after several days...and what do I find? The funniest cartoon title in ages!!

"Row vs. wade" I want to see that one, Donuel!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: pdq
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 01:19 PM

Q,

Thanks for your hard work. Searching for facts and "the truth" proves much more diffcult than blatting-out personal opinion. Your posts often stand out as gems in a field of slag.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 01:41 PM

Rita seems to be scouring East Texas and West Louisiana. We (North Texas around Fort Worth and Dallas) haven't seen a drop of rain, no wind, and only high clouds here. That's good for all of the Houston and Galveston folks who evacuated to the Metroplex, and easier on the Katrina folks who are already here. Our yards could have used some of that rain, though.

We're now at a situation of All Dressed Up and No Place to Go, but the preparations for a heavy storm won't go to waste. Everything I did to make it easier to leave if I had to (I live on a creek) or bought to use as emergency supplies will stay in place. They needed to be up to full strength anyway.

It had to be the Roadtrip from Hell for all of those folks stuck on the freeways headed north from Houston, but important lessons need to be learned from this. Is it reasonable that it should take that long to travel the distance when that many people are all trying to go at the same time? It was slow and miserable, but they did get out. Is money going to be spent to build more roads, or to devise a better evacuation system, or is it going to be determined that bugging out is always miserable work and spend the money on other services or technologies in this gulf region to restore wetlands or build barriers?

Lots of Monday morning quarterbacking soon to follow.

SRS


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CarolC
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 01:56 PM

Article on the president's response to Hurricane Rita...

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2149&ncid=1856&e=3&u=/cpress/20050924/ca_pr_on_wo/wea_rita_bush


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 10:02 PM

SRS - Lets hope they don't spend money to build more roads!

The sensible thing to do would be to stagger the evacuation times and evacuate one section at a time.

But of course thats way too logical for the bureaucrats.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 24 Sep 05 - 11:25 PM

I agree. New roads aren't the answer. They've been talking about high speed rail between Texas cities for years and years, but I don't know if anyone in the post-Rita political cadre will make the connection between Rapid Transit and Dollars Well Spent.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 25 Sep 05 - 12:07 AM

During WW2 I remember the interurban between Dallas and McKinney, north of Dallas. Rail lines need not be bullet-speed, but intercity rail transit seems neglected in the west.

A favorite of mine, when I was in the Ottawa-Montreal area, was a morning train to Montreal. Gave me time to read the paper or notes and no worries about rush hour traffic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,H
Date: 25 Sep 05 - 08:59 AM

The homework assignment for today; everyone go back up and red the posts' from "Q". This means to read the links and understand them. This will be part of the final


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 07:50 AM

dianavan,

"Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, told a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday that we're in a period of heightened hurricane activity that could last another decade or two.( See scientists collect data -- 1:33)

"The increased activity since 1995 is due to natural fluctuations (and) cycles of hurricane activity driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it and not enhanced substantially by global warming," he testified.

Mayfield's colleague at the National Hurricane Center, meteorologist Chris Landsea, said two recent studies about global warming and hurricanes raise more questions than they answer. He added that the impact of global warming is "minimal for the forseeable future."

Landsea said the studies indicate global warming could increase hurricane wind speeds and rainfall by about 5 percent --100 years from now. But, he added, more study is needed, looking back at historical data and making it more compatible with modern reporting techniques."

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/09/23/hurricane.cycle/index.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 10:03 AM

Regarding FEMA, There are countless examples of how FEMA DID NOT PERMIT "authorized relief: food, water and clothing as well as rescue workers and trauma medical staff into the Katrina disaster area for the first 10 days.

The reason is not a racist conspiracy or a premeditated political conspiracy of any kind.

The reason is that FEMA was entirely set up to respond to small pox and radiation attacks - not a natural disaster.

The department was downsized and all the emphasis went into containment, quarantine and news conferences to give a sedatitive effect and minimize panic.

Some of the few groups that did side step FEMA to give relief was the search and rescue teams from Canada and a local Sheriff who had to send armed police to take back the diesel fuel that FEMA had confiscated from the Bernard Parish emergency response center. FEMA eveh cut down that Sheriff's emergency broadcast antenna, supposedly to make room for a FEMA antenna.

Certainly in the case of a viral outbreak many of these FEMA strategies would be understandable. In the case of a biological attack, FEMA is empowered to quarantine, disable communication and allow for the eradication of certain populations should the need arise.

In an attack scenario, Homeland Security is prepared to make tough choices that seem heartless, ruthless and Machavellian.

So it was not just inaction by FEMA but a confused inappropriate response by an agency that is now restructured to have no business reponding to a natural diaster.

In short it was like you having to call the fire department and instead they sent a SWAT team - with forms that needed to be be signed in triplicate, forwarded, reviewed, approved and sent to commitee for recommended action.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Donuel
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 10:11 AM

Joke:

I called FEMA to enquire about a job and they asked me if I had any experience with Arabian saddle horses.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Amos
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 10:21 AM

His latest BRight Idea is to have the Pentagon take charge of national disasters.

This of course flies right into the teeth of a long tradition of not using the military on internal problems, which Bush in his short-sighted and under-educated miasma is more than willing to ignore. He may not have noticed that when national governments start deploying military forces inside the nation, it increases the risk of fascist control and suppression of civil rights. On the other hand, these are two things that appear to be under Bush's gang's list of "summum bonum" virtues.

A


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 10:44 AM

If he hadn't decided to send all of the National Guard troops to fight a war in Iraq he'd have had plenty of local troops to work on the local problem. The governors call them out, and has less of a feel like martial law.

SRS


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 11:04 AM

Could someone please explain to me how Bush or any president is supposed to have greater expertise in emergency management than FEMA?

Everyone is patting W on the back for taking days out of his schedule, hang out at northern command and saying it's good to visit the damaged areas. What exactly is he doing that is making things better than if he simply let the pros do what they are paid to do?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 06:38 PM

Unfortunately, just as with Hurricane Katrina, there are a host of with federal, state and local coordination in the aftermath of Hurricane Rita.

See this article:

HoustonChronicle.com: Hurricane Rita Aftermath

Here is an excerpt from that article:

County Judge Carl Griffith said today he has become so frustrated with the federal relief effort that he has instructed all local officials to use police force if they have to to take supplies from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

"If you have enough policemen to take it from them, take it," Griffith said.

His frustration comes as squabbling continues among federal, state and local over what some characterize as a woeful lack of communication.

R. David Paulison, acting FEMA head, was scheduled to visit the federal headquarters in the region, while local officials met across town to express their anger.

"We are very short on food and water, and the FEMA trucks that were supposed to be here just aren't here," Griffith said.

Commenting on the lack of help from FEMA, Griffith said, "We can't help it if politicans come here and just want to be seen by the media."

Deb Schmidt, a U.S. Forest Service official, attended the meeting and tried to catalog all the needs around the county, but she mostly ended up observing anger from the local officials.

"We hit the ground running with our own commodities and our own facilities, but we have no support," Griffith said.

City officials cited a lack of water pumps, generators, food and water, and they complained about federal relief teams failing to show and fuel deliveries not happening as promised.

Andre Wimer, city manager for Nederland, said he was tired of getting the runaround from federal officials. "We spend the day faxing and talking and we don't get any feedback. We need somebody helping us."

All is not well between local and state officials either.

According to the local officials at the meeting, state troopers were not allowing city employees crucial to the relief effort back into the county.

"I realize that there is a significant logistics issue and I appreciate that," Wimer said. "But there is a significant amount of equipment and manpower sitting at (local FEMA headquarters) and for whatever reason, it has not been released and that is a bunch of (nonsense)."

-snip-

Thos article also reports the death of a five members of a Texas family and notes that "Tempers also are flaring with local residents" who are being blocked from going back to their homes to see the damage and retrieve any possessions that might not have been damaged.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 06:39 PM

sorry-correction:

Unfortunately, just as with Hurricane Katrina, there are a host of problems with federal, state and local coordination in the aftermath of Hurricane Rita.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 06:52 PM

Some here may be interested in this comment from a resident of Houston who didn't evacuate:

"View from Houston

Ok...lets see if we can get a fairly straight record on things. I stayed in Houston throughout. I've had a number of short off the record discussions with people "in the know". Here's the picture I've formed:


The Houston Mayor (Bill White), and the county Judge (Robert Eckels) did an excellent job throughout the entire process. They started evacs early, staged it, kept the press informed, told it to people straight, and maintained calm. Republican or not, they did an outstanding job.


The outlying communities made a few mistakes. First and foremost was that they didn't follow the plan. Traffic light cycles were not changed, roads were not closed, and in some areas, people were even ticketed for petty violations in the middle of the evacuation.


Almost no tanker trucks were made avilable to all the gas stations along the evac routes as the plan calls for. In addition, not enough trucks were brought to Houston proper to help get people out. This is not a local failure. This, to my understanding, is a clear failure on the state and partially the feds. I place the blame for that directly on Governor "Pretty Hair" Perry.


FEMA once again was completely incompetent at every juncture. Sure they brought pumps, humvees, all that kind of thing...one problem though. The idiots didn't bring any friggin' gas!!! I heard White almost exploded while on the phone when they asked where we were keeping all the gas. Then you've got almost every regional and local government ready to hang these bastards because they are demanding 20 pages of paperwork be filled out and processed before they hand out a bottle of water.


The evacuation, though probelmatic, was in all essence considered a success by most in town. Myself included. 2 million people were re-located in 36hr period. It was an absolute miracle it went as smoothly as it did. That credit goes to White and Eckels as well as the outpouring of community support within the city. Even the local businesses were generous. One gas station gave away 4000 gallons of gas to help people get out of town. Everyone worked together for the most part.


Have no doubt. Even if Godzilla was in the middle of the eye and God himself came down and told people where it was going, most people in Houston will not evacuate next time. That scares the hell out of me and should everyone in this country.


This situation was not as bad as Katrina mainly because we simply didn't get hit in Houston. If we had, the death toll probably would have been very high. People must understand though that the local Houston and Harris County government was stellar in every respect. Any mistakes that have been made were made by Perry, the State government and FEMA.

Oh...and one last thing. If there is ANYONE who thinks that a metroplex of 5 million people can be completely evacuated in a 36hr period, without resorting to violent herding police tactics, they are out of their minds. Sure we can use trains and busses, but how are you going to get people on them? Threat of being shot? No? Then forget it. This is a free country and if people, no matter how stupid they may be, want to stay there is nothing that can be done to prevent them."

by Zergle on Mon Sep 26th, 2005 at 15:37:22 PDT
[http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/174822/324]


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,G
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 07:29 PM

"Local FEMA headquarters"? Since when has FEMA established 'local' headquarters? Could this again be the State arm of Homeland Security?
Every State has one and it is headed by a State Director and the Governor.
It is this mislableing that has caused much confinsion and has caused blame for FEMA to given with out being truthful.
One more time, the city, county and state governments are the first responders. FEMA has a 72 response interval.
Bet this was a state agency, just as it was in Louisana.
However, it does provide great fodder for the radical left to use to blame GWB for every thing including the paint peeling from their houses.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 07:58 PM

Guest G, are you saying that you believe that there were no problems with the federal response to Hurricane Katrina/Rita preparation & aftermath?

Here's another article where an official expresses concerns about FEMA:

Beaumont Paper Finds Federal Storm Failure in Texas

And here's an excerpt from that article:

"In Beaumont, Texas, claims that federal relief agencies learned their lessons from Hurricane Katrina and are on the ball in the aftermath of Hurricane Rita are apparently ringing hollow. The Beaumont (Tex.) Enterprise reported tonight that disaster response coordinators in the area hard hit by Rita say they are seeing the same foot-dragging federal response this weekend witnessed two weeks ago in New Orleans and Mississippi.

Jefferson County Judge Carl Griffith and other local leaders, "haggard after days of almost non-stop work with little sleep, pleaded with the federal government to get itself in a higher gear," the paper said. Griffith said he wanted to return services to residents who remain but that "it seems like they can't figure out how to get it done."

"There's a drastic shortage of generators in Beaumont to provide emergency power," Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst said. "There are generators at Ford Park, and FEMA is withholding their release. They want to finish their damage assessment."

Jefferson County officials had a plan to distribute Meals-Ready-to-Eat from local fire stations, the paper said. However, Griffith said the MREs, like the generators, were being withheld by FEMA.

"They won't let us have them," Griffith said. "They said we had to go through the state - which we already did - to get them. I'm going over there (to Ford Park) now to figure this out."

-snip-


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,G
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 08:56 PM

Azizi, my post had absolutely nothing to do with performance by any group. Go back and read it again. Problems are another topic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 09:15 PM

Beardedbruce - From the article that you linked'

"Brenda Ekwurzel, climate scientist of the Union of Concerned Scientist National Climate Education Program, told CNN that while global warming might not be causing hurricanes, it already is making them more intense."

Scientists don't always agree. It open for debate. Believe whom you will.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 09:23 PM

Guest G, whether or not your last post on this thread or any or your posts on this thread refer{s} to performance of any group seems immaterial to me.

I think my question is legitimate-Do you consider the federal response to Hurricane Katrina and/or Hurricane Rita to be blameless?

Yes or No?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 09:28 PM

Taken directly from the Beaumont Enterprise newspaper-
FEMA official Russell Rickart, who withheld the generators, answering Judge Griffith, said "FEMA will not jump in until all local and state responses are depleted." "Federal government and fed assets are only brought to bear as a last result (sic)."
"Rickart said FEMA must assess each generator request thoroughly to insure the equipment goes to those who need it the most and that they can actually use it. A genrator that works for one building might not be suitable for another, he said."
"Judge Griffith said that some of the generators were freed up, but many still sat at the Ford Park site mid-day Monday" (today).

This shows that there is NO overall coordination of federal, state and local assets or supplies.

Azizi, I (an anti-Bush liberal), and I think Guest G (a Bush defender), will never accept anything from blog and opinion sites such as 'Penndit'. Another ax is thrown on the grindstone, to further fog the story. I don't know the politics of the Enterprise, but they seem to have a balanced report of the story. A site like 'Penndit" I discard out of hand.

It is true that FEMA has no local headquarters, although one or more of their representatives may be on hand to 'assist' or observe. I don't know where FEMA official Rickart was located

Personally, I find Rickart's response repulsive. Unless he, personally, could have evaluated need, he should have accepted the assessment of the local officials. Did he have the expertise to assess the generators? Would he have with him the electricians or engineers to assess the applicability of particular generators? The locals would have the benefit of on site engineers working for the city and state.
'All state and local responses are depleted"- this leaves nothing in reserve in the state for other possible needs, delaying response to any other emergency. Power outages could (and did) extend beyond the area affected by the winds and water of the hurricane.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 09:30 PM

Let me attempt to improve the phrasing of my question to Guest G:

Guest G, do you believe that the federal government shares any of the fault for what happened or did not happen during the preparation and/or aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and/or Hurricane Rita?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,reggie miles
Date: 26 Sep 05 - 11:30 PM

Azizi,

If we take a close look at who Geedubya has now appointed to head FEMA, (David "Duct Tape" Paulison) I think the answer to your question becomes abundantly clear. In February of 2003 this guy presented to the nation (with a straight face mind you) the idea that duct tape and plastic sheeting was the answer to every American's dirty bomb dilemma. Billions of dollars spent on defense research and this is all the feds could come up with? Now that Dave's head of FEMA I can't wait to hear the next round of whoppers they're going to have him feeding us. As I stated in an earlier post, as a songwriter, I'm looking forward to developing their BS into my next hit song. ;o)


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 01:17 AM

The cautionary advice given by David Paulison on February 11, 2005 was good. Judge for yourself- what would you add?

1. Have on hand three days worth of water and food, an emergency supply kit for both home and automobile, radios with extra batteries, and plastic sheeting and duct tape to seal windows and doors.
2. Make a plan for contacting family members in an emergency.
3. Learn about different plans of attacks so you will know what to do in an emergency.
4. Be especially aware of your surroundings and the events happening aound you.
5. Tune in to local media outlets and don't evacuate unless told to do so.
6. In the first 48 to 72 hours of an emergency, many Americans likely will have to look after themselves.

What practical considerations would you add? Depending on type of attack or emergency, added preparations would differ.

His qualifications- Started as fireman in North Miami Beach, with Miami-Dade worked as rescue lieutenant, battalion commander, district chief of operations, divisional chief and asst. chief, asst. director administration and chief of department. He was chief of Miami-Dade Fire Rescue Dept. when hurricane Andrew hit south Florida in 1992. Paulison headed the International Association of Fire Chiefs.

Article, "Paulison is Skilled at Disasters," Spencer Hsu and Christopher Lee, Washington Post Staff writers, Tuesday, September 13, 2005. Democrat Sen. Mikulski of Maryland was among those praising Paulison's appointment.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Metchosin
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 02:47 AM

Well I would think that if you are going to seal your doors and windows with plastic sheeting and duct tape for 3 or 4 days, depending on room size, it might be adviseable to have something to check CO2 levels. A canary might be a good idea. LOL


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Metchosin
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 03:15 AM

Some of this disaster preparation stuff, to cover all contingencies, reminds me of a tale a friend of mine told me, years ago, when he flew reconnaisance in Britain during WWII. The Brits were told to black out their windows during bombing raids in order to deter detection by German aircraft.

Great idea to make the population feel that they were doing something of value in order to protect themselves. Only trouble was, during the winter, when flying over blacked out cities, the chimney pots on every building glowed like welcoming beacons to anything overhead. The general population wasn't told about that small failure.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,G
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 03:59 AM

Azizi, sorry to hear of your frestration. Yours is a typical response for one who won't or can't respond to a post containing a question that would go against your feelings and your ongoing attempts to bash the Federal administration.
Why should I consider your question more important than mine?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Azizi
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 09:55 AM

Guest G,

I went back to re-read your post of 26 Sep 05 - 07:29 PM to try to find the question you seem to be indicating that I have not answered. You may be referring to this series of questions from that post:

"Local FEMA headquarters"? Since when has FEMA established 'local' headquarters? Could this again be the State arm of Homeland Security?"

-snip-

Since I wasn't sure if there was any such thing as the state arm of Homeland security, I decided to do some online searching to see what I could find.

First I entered "state FEMA deparments" into google. The first entry that came up was FEMA's homepage. I went to that homepage with its o slogan-"FEMA: Helping people before, during, and after disasters" and then went to the "About Us" page. In the "Who are we?" section of that page I read:

"FEMA is part of the Department of Homeland Security's Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate. FEMA has more than 2,600 full time employees. They work at FEMA headquarters in Washington D.C., at regional and area offices across the country, the Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center, and the National Emergency Training Center in Emmitsburg, Maryland. FEMA also has nearly 4,000 standby disaster assistance employees who are available for deployment after disasters. Often FEMA works in partnership with other organizations that are part of the nation's emergency management system. These partners include state and local emergency management agencies, 27 federal agencies and the American Red Cross."

-snip-

I noted that the last sentence does say that FEMA's partners include state and local manangement agencies..But it seems to me by that wording that the state partners are separate entities from the federal FEMA department itself.

I then decided to google "state department of Homeland Security". The first entry that came up was the "Office for Domestic Preparedness Support". The second entry that came up was the "Tennessee Homeland Security." The third entry on that list was the federal Homeland Security department. I decided to go to that page and here is an excerpt from that page:

"The Department of Homeland Security Information Network is connected to all 50 states and more than 50 major urban areas, and allows information sharing among thousands of local agencies and the Homeland Security Operations Center."
-snip-

That page also featured an information box labeled "State Contact List". That box said:
"Select your state or territory to see who your Governor has appointed as your state's homeland security contact."

-snip-

Again, it seems to me that there is a difference between the federal agency of Homeland Security, and the state's homeland security contact.

So in summation, G, I'm not sure if I know the answers to the questions that you asked in your 26 Sep 05 - 07:29 PM post.

It seems to me that all levels of government, including the federal government-that is to say FEMA/Homeland Security-were [are] at fault with regard to the preparation for and aftermath of Hurricane Katrina & Hurrican Rita.

BTW Guest G, I've never considered myself as part of the "radical left" and I certainly don't "blame GWB for every thing including the paint peeling from [my]house."

That said, I'm still interested in knowing whether you think that the federal government should take any responsibility for things that went wrong or were not done at all before and during these catastrophic hurricanes.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 10:25 AM

"Landsea said the studies indicate global warming could increase hurricane wind speeds and rainfall by about 5 percent --100 years from now. But, he added, more study is needed, looking back at historical data and making it more compatible with modern reporting techniques."

(note "could" and "more study is needed")



"Brenda Ekwurzel, climate scientist of the Union of Concerned Scientist National Climate Education Program, told CNN that while global warming might not be causing hurricanes, it already is making them more intense."


(NOTE "IS MAKING")

National Hurrican Center VS Union of Concerned Scientist National Climate Education Program.... Gee, who has the axe to bear?




The Rev BeardedBruce, head of the Church of the Armed Nudest, tells MUDCAT that while being liberal may not be causing a disregard of the facts, it is already making them irrelevent to any conclusions being drawn.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 10:42 AM

Just get rid of FEMA. We don't need them. Let the states take care of their own.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 11:43 AM

Why do so many people not have insurance in NOLA. I refer only to this city as it has received the lions share of press while perhaps Mississippi had perhaps more dollar damage than NOLA and certainly a more wide-spread area.
I actually got a lump in the pit of my stomach when GWB announced 200 Billion. Why? The Feds should take care of the public infrastructure,
highways, bridges and water/sewage even though the latter are either the responsibility of the city or are privately owned. If a tornado rips thru a part of Illinois south of Chicago, do we get free money from DC. No! And where were the Feds when thousands and thousands of us lost 90% of our savings when Global Crossing and others went belly up? Again, no bucks!

And in a prelude to your statements regarding "they are poor, they can't afford it", I listened to an interview of a NOLA citizen who said the Feds should take care of him, "I can't afford insurance!"
Then he went on to complain about the Saints not playing in town and that his 'Season Tickets' will be worthless.
Go find out the price of season tickets for most NFL teams.
Antecdotal, I know, but lets wait.

We have created a gigantic 'entitlement community' and we continue to allow it to grow. I never had season tickets to the Bears for several reasons and now realize another reason I didn't- I was foolish and paid for homeowners insurance, maybe sending 4 children thru college and giving heavily to charitable organizations also kept me from having tickets. It sure doesn't pay to be a responsible citizen according to what we see happening. I agree my efforts allowed me to have a lot but if I had not grown up being accustomed to it, then I could be a happy camper depending on the Government to take of things.

One last thing, I can't help but think that the ongoing attacks on the Feds, GWB et.al., is due to what we have seen uncovered, particulary in NOLA. A massive amount of people dependent on the government for much or all of their sustenance.This has grown into a monster thanks to the "Great Society" of LBJ and with the ongoing blessing of a longstanding Democratic regime in both city and state government in Louisiana.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 12:21 PM

Orleans Parish- some figures, 2000 census:
Population- 450,000 approx.
White- 136,000
Black- 326,000 (67 %)

Per capita income by race-
White- $32,000
Black- $11,000

You can't get much lower than $11,000 and still be in the United States.
How many of those African-Americans bought NFL tickets?

Guest- wouldn't you just like to eliminate these people??

Data from www.epodunk.com
www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/incomeOverview.php?locIndex=3517


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 12:29 PM

And who is to blame for them being poor, criminal and not bettering themselves?

LIBERALS

I posted this elsewhere:


the people that needed 'rescue' are different than the general population of the US.

When we looked upon the chaos and criminal behavior of people in NO immediately after Katrina, we were looking upon the end result of liberalism. Instead of seeing the best in us, we saw the ugly side of multiculturalism.

This lawless reaction is but a part of the larger inevitable moral failure of destroying the family, providing incentives to stay impoverished and encouragement of not taking responsibility for ones actions.

Consider this:
-Liberal position of multi culturalism makes no differentiation between competing cultures except for the liberal position. The culture of multiculturalism is a philosophy, in and of itself. It is necessary for all other philosophies to be subservient to this general philosophy.

Below this overarching philosophy, all other cultures based on different philosophies are equal. This means that 'alternative' cultures are of equal value to the traditional family.

What if the alternative culture is a single mother with a child out of wedlock? Then this would be of equal value to the traditional family in the view of the multiculturalist. They are unable to make a qualitative 'judgement' between those philosophies that are considered subservient to the philosophy of multiculturalism.

The policy implication is that, culture doesn't matter. It does not matter whether you believe in one philosophy or another, regardless of the outcomes that the different philosophies may result in. This makes philosophy irrelevant. You can do what ever you want because it doesn't matter because all behavior is equally moral.

We must therefore have compassion for people and not 'judge' them when they make a mistake, for there are no personal mistakes. This results in the mistake being repeated or an increase in the risky behavior (the moral hazard i've talked about before). They have been conditioned to believe that the repercussions of their behavior is lower than it actually is because the rest of the population is paying for their mistake.

This compassionate liberalism has allowed for the notion that the black people today are not responsible for their behavior. This is the result of 'racism' and the 'legacy of slavery'. This excuse, perpetuated by liberal leaders provides the cover for comments by survivors that 'the slow response was another case of slavery...we should get $20,000 for each survivor', the notion that current black people should receive compensation for slavery of their ancestors and the large discrepency in the polls between black people and the rest of society on whether or not there would have been quicker response to katrina if the 'victims' (i'm not sure the word 'victim' is accurate here as it was their choice to stay) were white.

The solutions provided for these amoral (according to liberals and immoral according to conservatives) is the provision by the government of support. This results in breaking the traditional family (and who cares when moral relativism means that there is no right or wrong?) unit.

Consider the situation of having a single mother with a child. She receives housing benefits, food stamps, afdc etc. If she is married, and her husband is gainfully employed she loses those benefits. It is financially better for them to be seperate. What if she wants to work? Again loss of benefits. The point is that, the more she does to better her condition, the more she has to lose. This is what I mean when I say that poor people have the highest marginal tax rates. The decision to increase ones effective income (cash and benefits) by 50% but with the cost of having the time spent working go from 0 to 40 hours/week is not necessarily clear cut. Especially in a culture where doing well academically is considered 'acting white' or financial setbacks are because of 'the man'. In this case, liberalism has directly assaulted the traditional family unit. This leads to the men not being responsible for the wife or for the child and for the responsibility to be transered to society. This becomes dependency as there is strong incentive for the wife and child not to marry and 'force' the father to be a man.

The 'victims' are not like you or me. There are a disproportionate number of black people who believe in the liberal mantra. That is why there are so many criminals. That is why, they are poor. That is why they threw stones at the buses. That is why they stayed. That is why they were shooting at rescue people. That is why they feel entitled. That is why they are racist.

I was serious when I posted that liberals were responsible for the scope of the disaster in NO. Yes, there is a right and wrong. Yes, there are repercussions for making wrong decisions. And yes, people need to learn how to take personal responsibility for their actions.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 03:33 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/26/AR2005092601484.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CarolC
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 03:39 PM

rarelamb, once again you post racist generalizations. You fail to take into account the many WORKING POOR who are not being supported by any government, who work very hard, sometimes at more than one job, but who, nevertheless barely make enough money to survive, with no extra left over for luxuries like gas money for trips out of town, and maybe even not enough for flood insurance on their homes.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 03:58 PM

CarolC, I can't tell if BB "failed to take into account the working poor" nor can I decide what you mean by that statement. What does it have to do with anything and you make it sound like an excuse for something. Excuse for what? And why are there so many working poor?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 27 Sep 05 - 04:01 PM

Guest, CarolC was talking to rarelamb.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CarolC
Date: 28 Sep 05 - 12:07 PM

GUEST,27 Sep 05 - 03:58 PM, read rarelamb's 27 Sep 05 - 12:29 PM post if you want to know what I was responding to.

Re: your question of why there are so many working poor... my answer would be that there are many employers who don't pay a living wage to their workers, and who don't have any benefits for their workers. We in the US depend on these workers because they enable us to buy cheap goods and services, but we don't give a poop about them when they find themselves in difficulties that are beyond their control.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 28 Sep 05 - 12:56 PM

There will always be working poor, just as there will always be people who need to start out in the labor market and just as there will always be people who are not productive enough to justify higher wages.

This notion that there is this large group of people who were unable to purchase gas is ridiculous. Even if they had only a portion each, they could have pooled their resources.

Instead of 'can't' here is an example of 'can'. I used to be a waiter and all of the bus boys were mexicans (dish washers and cooks too). They lived in the poor section of town and lived 8 or so to a 2 or 3 bedroom apartment. They saved a bunch of money that they sent out to mexico for their families.

Somehow these 'working poor' are able to save 30%+ of their meager earnings. And why do they do it? Because they are responsible and have a strong sense of family duty.

And yes, when I was a waiter I was part of your 'working poor'. We have the wonderful ability in this country to improve our lot when government is not 'keeping us down'.

Here's something else I posted elsewhere:
It seems to me that conservatives can appear 'mean' in public forums, blogs and discussions. I think it comes partly from the desire of people to 'want to do something'. When we see a problem, we want to 'fix it'.

In this context, the discussion usually goes something like this:
Liberal: Oh my, look at that problem. We should fix it. We can make a government program that will address this.
Conservative: I don't want my tax dollars to go to them.
Liberal: You are mean.

Or some variation.

From my perspective, the cure is often worse than the problem. I have posted before about moral hazard. To review, moral hazard occurs after a contract, and describes the change in parameters/behaviors due to the contract. Examples would include:

- someone who purchases insurance may behave in a more risky fashion.
- people purchasing 3rd world debt with the assumption it will be covered by Other countries in the event of a default because they have before
- Savings and loans institutions that invest in more speculative investments because FDIC is increased to $100,000.

What is key, is that the behavior has changed and in many cases in a fashion that is not in the best interest of the contra party.

We can see this kind of behavior in other government policies. In particular I see it in the way that government 'crowds out' traditional financial and moral relationships.

- Women have babies out of wedlock more frequently, because the relative cost has decreased due to government aid.
- People do not save as much because the government finances their unemployment and retirement.

In essence, instead of taking care of themselves and their families, people have become more reliant on the government. The roles of the traditional family are being taken over by the government. This has had the effect of weakening the family in our society.

In this role of guarenteer of financial security, the government can not eliminate the risk, it can only move it. And it does this in a inefficient manner.

In the case of the minimum wage, the government puts the same people it is trying to help out of work. By increasing the price for laber, the government decreases demand for that labor and increases supply, with the result that the unemployed increases.

In the case of rent ceilings, the demand for space increases while the supply decreases, with the result that another gap is created, again hurting the very same people that you are trying to help.

In the case of unions, unions create a 'minimum wage' effect, where their pay is above market clearing prices, with the result that the demand for labor is decreased, ie fewer jobs.

In the case of education, the inner city schools are being mismanaged because they are being run based on political/union considerations and not on market incentives.

In the case of school busing, an attempt was made to force our society to integrate. This led to white flight, decreasing urban populations and potential tax revenues. Integration failed and destroyed parts of Detroit, New Orleans and other cities without large immigration populations.

In the case of public housing, all of the anti-social behaviors that are at risk in poor populations were amplified.

In the case of public assistance, poor people were trapped into poverty due to the disincentives to work. This is the result of the poor having effectively the highest marginal tax rate.

In the case of elderly, some who would like to work do not because they would lose benefits, again high marginal tax rates.

In the case of affirmative action, racial tensions are made worse because a white worker has to make up for the slack of the unqualified black worker and/or the white worker does not feel the black worker deserves to have the job and/or the position that the black worker has is at the cost of a white worker.

I have hoped to show some snippets of how government solutions tend to make situations worse rather than better. I do not hate the spirit of liberal causes but I have great reservations on their methods. If left to their own devices, people have the remarkable ability to take care of themselves.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 02:56 AM

Oh my goodness, where do I begin...

Rarelamb says,"The culture of multiculturalism is a philosophy, in and of itself. It is necessary for all other philosophies to be subservient to this general philosophy.

Below this overarching philosophy, all other cultures based on different philosophies are equal. This means that 'alternative' cultures are of equal value to the traditional family."


This makes no logical sense. multiculturalism is not a philosophy, its a fact in our highly mobile world.

Cultures are not based on philosophy and the traditional family is not a culture.

Any conclusion that you draw from that gobbly gook of incorrect assumptions is entirely false.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 03:15 AM

beardedbruce - The National Hurrican Center is saying that hurricanes 'could' be the cause and the Union of Concerned Scientist National Climate Education Program are saying 'it is the cause' of more intense hurricanes. I really don't see that they are in disagreement. Only that one is asking for further study and the other says, we've studied it enough and have arrived at this conclusion.

I would rather tackle global warming now than wait for your guy to wait for more studies from scientists who have already conducted the studies. Who is more reputable is a matter of opinion.

I don't know who has 'the axe to bear' but I don't think either has an axe to grind.

One is just more cautious than the other and one gets his paycheck from the Feds and the other doesn't.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 07:19 AM

Azizi, this thread has been educational for all. I had been stressing the point that each state has its' own Department of Homeland Security. You have posted to the fact that is is. I know for a fact that the Feds need 48 hours to properly respound even if they get stuff close prior to a strike 400 semis om supplies in dowtn NOLA woulf not have been a good idea.
As to your question, did I feel that the feds were slow or whatever. Again, I shall wait for the facts. A rush to judgement is a serious thing to do.
One example; remember the "200+ dead bodies in the Super dome? (among other things to grisly to repeat) That turned out to be 6 bodies. 4 from natural causes, 1 from an overdose and the 6th committed suicide


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 08:10 AM

"William Gray of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has shown that hurricane activity waxes and wanes over 25 to 30 years. The 1910s and '20s were bad for hurricanes. Then came a period of calm, and another bad period in the 1940s and '50s. From the 1960s to 1995 was a period of calm."

"Robert Sheets, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami from 1987 to 1995, agrees. He doesn't believe there's any solid evidence that Katrina was strengthened by global warming. 'Anything we've seen so far is not outside of what has occurred in the past,' he says."

"Christopher Landsea, a researcher meteorologist in the hurricane research division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says Katrina wasn't caused by global warming but is simply a part of the natural cycle of hurricane activity.

More from Landsea: "We've seen very busy times before, but the big difference is there's so many people living in hurricane alley. The coastal population is doubling roughly every 25 years from Texas to Carolina. That means the last time we were in a busy period there were many fewer people and less infrastructure in the way,' Landsea says."


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 08:36 AM

dianavan,

I am sure that no person in the federal government would ever pass up the chance to make his job more important, get additional attention and funding for his job, and expand his role.

Are you so certain that the Union of Concerned Scientist National Climate Education Program has such a better understanding of the weather than NOAA?

I DO NOT dispute global warming- only the causes and whether man-made contributions have made a significant contribution to the strength of hurricanes.

And if it is global warming, and NOT the cyclic basis of hurricane variation, how do you explain the LOWER number of typhoons in the Pacific? Isn't the Pacific ocean on the same globe?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 08:43 AM

My real concern is that while the "blame" game is being played over who is responsible for GW, the real effects are being ignored- We SHOULD be looking ( longterm) over the changes that GW will cause, instead of trying to keep the world in a ( non-realistic) static state.

Does anyone feel that GW is caused ONLY by man-made effects? If no, then what are we going to do when the man-made effects are removed, and the world still gets warmer?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CarolC
Date: 29 Sep 05 - 12:23 PM

My problem with your earlier post, rarelamb, was its assumption that all poor people in the New Orleans area are lazy and on welfare, rather than being people who work very hard for what little they have. But re: your last post, I know for a fact that there were people who had no way to get out, and who would have gone had they been able.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Sep 05 - 09:56 AM

"You may be interested to know that global warming, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters are a direct effect of the shrinking numbers of Pirates since the 1800s. For your interest, I have included a graph of the approximate number of pirates versus the average global temperature over the last 200 years. As you can see, there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between pirates and global temperature."




http://www.venganza.org/


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Wolfgang
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 01:13 PM

Did Humans Create Rita and Katrina? (translated from DER SPIEGEL)

Lennart Bengtsson, former Director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, is also critical. "Some scientists," says the Swedish hurricane expert, "give the public precisely those simplistic answers they want to hear." Bengtsson believes that scientists are irresponsible when they say that weather catastrophes of any nature must increase in an overheated world.

Wolfgang


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Ebbie
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 01:50 PM

rarelamb, I sit here in wonderment. Yyour latest post is so full of assumptions that could be refuted point by point I wonder that Bearded Bruce doesn't speak up and tell you how full of it you are.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 01:53 PM

Woo Hoo! I welcome all challengers. Please put forward your arguements!


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 02:05 PM

Ebbie,

If you see assumptions, ask for them to be substantiated. I see a lack of PROOF of many things rarelamb has said- but no more so than from anyone else here. IF there is some point you disagree with, try discussing it rather than just stating that they could be refuted. Unless you are basing YOUR statement on unsubstantiated beliefs...

I am STILL waiting for dianavan to help me increase the number of pirates, in order to stop global warming.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Ebbie
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 03:45 PM

On last night's Jay Leno, he said, 'Some people say that Hurricane Katrina was in punishment for people's sins, but they have it all wrong. FEMA was the punishment.'

1. rarelamb: This notion that there is this large group of people who were unable to purchase gas is ridiculous. Even if they had only a portion each, they could have pooled their resources.
1. a.How many of your neighbors do you know well enough to suggest pooling money and cars and all the logistics that go with fleeing from your homes?
b. Say you have three dollars, another has $50, and someone else is flat broke. None of you has a car, except for one that has a habit of overheating.
c. Who decides whether pets can go along? How many of them? Say I don't have a pet and I don't want any of your damned smelly pets in the car.
d. However, I do have a baby- and someone else objects to having to watch their pet's reaction to an infant.
ad infinitum

2. rarelamb: Instead of 'can't' here is an example of 'can'. I used to be a waiter and all of the bus boys were mexicans (dish washers and cooks too). They lived in the poor section of town and lived 8 or so to a 2 or 3 bedroom apartment. They saved a bunch of money that they sent out to mexico for their families.

2. As you must know, immigrants and people just starting out have far different expectations than do main stream Americans. I manage rentals and I have had immigrants double and quadruple up to make the rent in addition to be able to send money home. Most Americans' lifestyle expectations are far higher- we think we need a whole lot more room than they make do with. In an emergency and while working toward a goal, people can and do lots of things they would not normally do. I once knew a German family who lived 9 to a house while they saved and scrimped to buy other houses. As each purchase became a reality, the group thinned but they all continued to pool their money toward the next house. How many Americans do that? Do you do that?

3. rarelamb: And yes, when I was a waiter I was part of your 'working poor'. We have the wonderful ability in this country to improve our lot when government is not 'keeping us down'.

3. Incidentally, when you were a waiter and "a member of the working poor", how old were you? Were you in college perhaps? Were your expectations for something much different?
a. One of the most heart wrenching mindsets belongs to the person or family or culture who literally cannot see his or her way out, who doesn't even know that there is a better way. People who have accepted for generations that a proportion of their number will go to prison, or be in trouble with the law or the 'system', that have to hide when the landlord shows up or there's a uniform at the door. If we - mainstream America - could reach the youngsters and convince them that life need not be that hard, that THEY can change it, we will have begun to heal our country. IMO

4. rarelamb: Here's something else I posted elsewhere: It seems to me that conservatives can appear 'mean' in public forums, blogs and discussions. I think it comes partly from the desire of people to 'want to do something'. When we see a problem, we want to 'fix it'.
4. The older definition of 'mean' is stingy and grasping. People have said that "Republicans" don't want people to starve or live in shacks but they don't want to spend any money on the problem. "Democrats", on the other hand, don't care how much money is spent on them as long as it isn't their money. I'd go a step farther. I'd say that Democrats realize the fact that when everybody chips in, it costs no one too much. Republicans, conversely, seem to resent every penny- it's the principle of the thing, you know. (As they say, though, when somebody says "It's not the money, it's the principle", rest assured, it's the money.

5. rarelamb: From my perspective, the cure is often worse than the problem. I have posted before about moral hazard. To review, moral hazard occurs after a contract, and describes the change in parameters/behaviors due to the contract. Examples would include:

- someone who purchases insurance may behave in a more risky fashion.
- people purchasing 3rd world debt with the assumption it will be covered by Other countries in the event of a default because they have before
- Savings and loans institutions that invest in more speculative investments because FDIC is increased to $100,000.

5. I think your perspective is seriously flawed. Do you really think that ordinary people think this way? Might you agree that it's the huge corporations that have profited mightily with that mindset?

6. rarelamb: We can see this kind of behavior in other government policies. In particular I see it in the way that government 'crowds out' traditional financial and moral relationships.
6. Did you know that in some modern countries where government does not 'crowd out traditional financial and moral relationships', people just plain do without? In the Philipines, where old age is revered far more than in the US, you get no governmental help with your oldsters, no matter how frail or needy they are or how expensive their needs become. People literally die because their care cannot be afforded. Is that what you want?

7. rarelamb: Women have babies out of wedlock more frequently, because the relative cost has decreased due to government aid.
7. Sure. That's why we have them.

8. rarelamb: People do not save as much because the government finances their unemployment and retirement.
8. The United States of America has a much lower rate of savings than most other modern countries, it is true. It is not just poor people, working or not.
a. Government aid is multifaceted. The biggest welfare community in the US is the big corporations, followed WAY down the dollar list by Reagan's 'welfare queens' and five-generation welfare families.

9. rarelamb: In essence, instead of taking care of themselves and their families, people have become more reliant on the government. The roles of the traditional family are being taken over by the government. This has had the effect of weakening the family in our society.
9. As a girl, my mother worked at a 'poor farm' where people who had nothing left went to live out their days. And remember the 'debtors' prisons'? Remember the stories of people literally turned out of their homes onto the streets? Would that suit you better?
a. Governmental programs- like Social Security - eased the end for a great many people. Do you want to go back to when it was every man for himself?
b. Welfare programs, even though they are subject to abuse - even by you - have saved a great many lives.

10. rarelamb: In this role of guarenteer of financial security, the government can not eliminate the risk, it can only move it. And it does this in a inefficient manner.
10. Yes. It is inefficient. Which is why we- you, me, the Republicans, the Democrats - should see to it that it is collected efficiently and disbursed humanely and where needed. WE are the government, you know.

11. rarelamb: In the case of the minimum wage, the government puts the same people it is trying to help out of work. By increasing the price for laber, the government decreases demand for that labor and increases supply, with the result that the unemployed increases.
11. What can I say? Bullshit The people actually laboring to produce the product are paid an infinitesimal part of the profit. Trickle down does not work- Wick UP is the norm.

Good lord. I'm going to stop.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 03:59 PM

Ebbie,

Your number 11 ( for example) does not address the statement:

"In the case of the minimum wage, the government puts the same people it is trying to help out of work. By increasing the price for laber, the government decreases demand for that labor and increases supply, with the result that the unemployed increases."

Your reply,

"Bullshit The people actually laboring to produce the product are paid an infinitesimal part of the profit. Trickle down does not work- Wick UP is the norm."

IS TRUE, but so what? HOW have you negated the truth of rarelamb's statement? BOTH of your statements can be, and IMO are valid- so why the Bullshit?


"Water is wet. "
"Bullshit, I don't like to drown."

See the point?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,G
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 04:33 PM

Yes, water is wet. And I still see the thinly veiled reference to the Dems being the group who want to take care of the poor and downtrodden.

Rewind to New Orleans a few weeks ago - a town whose city and state governments have been under control of the Dems forever. I just need more proof as to th Dems deep regard for this part of our society.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: Ebbie
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 05:42 PM

"In the case of the minimum wage, the government puts the same people it is trying to help out of work. By increasing the price for laber, the government decreases demand for that labor and increases supply, with the result that the unemployed increases."

OK. Let's take it apart so we can see rarelamb's implication.

"In the case of the minimum wage, the government puts the same people it is trying to help out of work."

S/He is saying that because there is a minimum wage set by the government, the employers/businesses cannot afford to hire entry level workers, thus depriving the workers of work. Nicht wahr?

"By increasing the price for laber, the government decreases demand for that labor and increases supply, with the result that the unemployed increases."

S/He is saying that because of the minimum wage requrement and businesses' resultant reluctance or inability to afford them, the demand by the employers (not decreased worker demand) goes down, with the result that fewer workers are employed.

And I repeat: Bullshit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 07:27 PM

BB - if you understand science, then you surely understand the difference between correlation and causation.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: dianavan
Date: 04 Oct 05 - 09:23 PM

Thanks, Tia, you took the words right out of my mouth.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 09:02 AM

Ebbie,

I seem to be missing your point. HOW is rarelamb's statement false-


"because there is a minimum wage set by the government, the employers/businesses cannot afford to hire entry level workers, thus depriving the workers of work."

So business has unlimited capital, according to you?

"because of the minimum wage requrement and businesses' resultant reluctance or inability to afford them, the demand by the employers (not decreased worker demand) goes down, with the result that fewer workers are employed."

Seems obvious to me- if you can't afford to pay them, how can you pay them?


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 09:26 AM

Guest, TIA

You miss my point. The example I gave at the end of my post was an exageration of Ebbie's point- and is OBVIOUSLY invalid, as are Ebbie's judgements without supporting facts.

Dianavan,

see above


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 09:30 AM

excuse me... and exageration of Ebbie's LOGIC, and is obviously invalid...


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 09:48 AM

Well met! The lines are drawn and the first salvos have been fired. Unto the breach once more!!! :) How I do love a good debate.


Points 1-3, 6 are consistent with my point that there needs to be a change in the culture of the poor. I have shown examples (as have you!) where a different cultural attitude will have a different result. The poor (and in particular blacks) do not have a healthy 'culture'. My arguement has been:

-Government policy encourages the replacement of self-reliance
-This means the converse or rather that people become reliant
-Which creates a culture of poverty
-And in the case of blacks, the philosophical ramifications of multi-culturalism and the victim society promulgated by liberals has made this class particularly susceptible


Point 4 is not an issue. You can define mean whatever way you want. It was not part of the main thrust of my original post.

Point 5 has been documented as being the way people behave. And yes, corporations do behave that way. In economics the general problem is called asymmetric information. Asymmetric information is comprised of two components: Adverse selection and moral hazard.

Here is a link for adverse selection:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection

Here is a link for moral hazard:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard


"The most well known examples of moral hazard come from insurance. Fire insurance, for instance, gives people an incentive to commit arson, especially if they are operating a failing business and decide that they'd rather have the cash from the insurance proceeds on the buildings than the buildings themselves. Many, perhaps most, police investigations of arson are the result of leads from suspicious insurance adjusters. More generally, insurance may encourage riskier behavior, such as sloppy fire prevention. For example, the expectation that federal government disaster aid will come seems to encourage the residents of Malibu, California to let bushes and trees grow near their houses, raising the risk of fire.
Moral hazard appears in other insurance-related areas as well: automobile insurance makes it safer for people to have accidents that cause injuries or property damage. Because of these hazards, actuaries are careful to avoid insuring any property for more than it is worth, or even for its replacement cost, and almost always require that there be a deductible, an initial up-front sum which the insured must pay out of his or her own pocket. They may also impose conditions, such as the ownership of fire extinguishers (in the case of fire insurance).
Moral hazard also appears in politics, for example, as it regards anti-poverty transfer programs and similar programs. The Central Bank's rescue of the creditors of a country suffering from a financial crisis (such as Mexican "Tequila Crisis" of 1994-95) encourages the creditors to make such risky loans again in the future"


I will now answer the rest of your points as they all deal with the same issue.
1.        People change their behavior when given new circumstances. If the government is not there to provide retirement benefits, then people will change their behavior to provide for old age. This can be done by having the younger generation take care of the older, people saving more for their retirement, people being sent out on icebergs, or whatever they decide. The point is that people will change their behavior.
2.        Or in the case of unemployment, more people will save more money for such eventualities or will rely on the family unit or will rely on other relationships in times of hardship. Again, people will change their behavior with a change in their circumstances.
3.        I do not believe in corporate welfare anymore than I believe in any entitlement program. I am in complete agreement that we should remove subsidies on our industries and tariffs on products coming in to our country. (See my post in the Canada oil thread)

Now to get to the more substantive material. The economic framework is the basis for much of my opinions. It has the benefit of many years of development and study.

Let us start with the basics of supply and demand.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
The higher the price the more that will be supplied and the less that will be demanded. This can be seen in the graph on the link. You may want to goto point number 2 in the link titled simple supply and demand for simplicity.
In the event of a minimum wage, one would place a horizontal line above the market equilibrium price. This has the effect of decreasing demand for labor and increasing the supply of labor. This is not 'bullshit' but rather well accepted economic theory. Here is another link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage
In particular:
"The costs and benefits arising from minimum wages are subject to considerable disagreement among economists, though the consensus among economics textbooks is that minimum wage laws should be avoided whenever possible as the costs exceed the benefits. Indeed, a survey in the Winter 2005 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives reports that exactly two-thirds of academic economists at top universities agree with the statement, "a minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled.""

Note this is the same effect of a union who is able to claim wages and benefits above the equilibrium price.

What about rent ceilings so the poor can afford housing? In that case we put a horizontal line below the equilibrium price. This has the effect of decreasing supply of housing and increasing demand.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-274.html

"
Shortages under Rent Control: The New Evidence
What happens to price and availability of unregulated housing in a rent-controlled market? To determine this, this author collected data on all the available apartments advertised in eighteen major cities around North America. The advertised prices were taken from a single Sunday edition of the largest paper in each city during the month of April 1997. The advertised price of every listed apartment was recorded. (Three newspapers were used for New York.) Rented houses were also included. Some older urban areas--Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Philadelphia--have very few rental houses, while in Sunbelt cities such as Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and San Diego, they make up a large portion of the rental market. To make sure this regional phenomenon was not distorting the figures, rental houses were omitted in two cities, Atlanta and Phoenix. Six of the surveyed cities have rent control--Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, San Jose, Toronto, and Washington. In addition, Boston ended rent control in January 1997. The median rent shown on each graph is based on the 1990 U.S. Census. [12] (See Appendix for all graphs.)
The most striking observation is that the graphs of rents in free-market cities follow a standard bell curve. The vast majority of advertised rents cluster around the median, with between 33 percent and 40 percent below the census median. The median advertised rent is rarely more than $50 above the census median. This may be because the very cheapest apartments are not likely to be advertised in the newspaper and because landlords often raise rents when apartments become vacant. The mode - the number where the graph peaks - usually occurs below both medians. Characteristically, there is a steep climb on the low-rent side of the curve, followed by a long tail toward the "luxury" end of the market.
It is also striking how affordable housing is in most free-market cities. In Philadelphia, the nation's fifth largest city, the most common advertised rent, the mode, is between $450 and $500--below both the advertised and census medians. (See Figure 1.) In Chicago, the mode was $500 to $550, also below both medians. Unregulated cities such as Philadelphia, Chicago, San Diego, Phoenix, and Seattle seem to have almost perfectly competitive housing markets, with housing available at every price level but clustered at the low end.
The two cities with strict rent control are glaring exceptions to this pattern. In both New York (see Figure 2.) and San Francisco, advertised rents peaked at $2,000--more than triple the U.S. Census median rent for each city. The median advertised rent in New York was $1,350, in San Francisco, $1,400--both more than double the census median. More important, there were almost no rental units available at the low end of the market. In both San Francisco and New York, less than 10 percent of advertised rents were below the census median. (The New York figures also included listings from the Daily News and the New York Post, which are slanted toward the lower end of the market.) Rent control in both these cities appears to make housing spectacularly unaffordable. "

Government is not the solution to our problems, it IS the problem.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 01:35 PM

My apologies - missed the irony part.


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: beardedbruce
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 01:52 PM

I will try to use a bigger club, next time...


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Subject: RE: BS: Hurricane Rita, Mother Nature, & FEMA
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Oct 05 - 06:07 PM

because of the minimum wage requrement and businesses' resultant reluctance or inability to afford them, the demand by the employers (not decreased worker demand) goes down, with the result that fewer workers are employed.

If this is the case, how do you account for the ubiquity of such businesses in every town and every city in the US? Service businesses (the ones that are more likely to pay minimum wage) can't exist without workers. Seems like if the minimum wage laws were resulting in fewer low paying jobs in the US, we would be seeing a decline in these kinds of businesses rather than the veritable explosion of such businesses that we see now in the US. The service sector is the fastest growing sector in the US job market.


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