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BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again

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Q (Frank Staplin) 03 Sep 05 - 05:51 PM
gnu 03 Sep 05 - 05:59 PM
McGrath of Harlow 03 Sep 05 - 06:16 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 03 Sep 05 - 07:23 PM
gnu 03 Sep 05 - 07:32 PM
Cluin 03 Sep 05 - 07:39 PM
GUEST,Jon 03 Sep 05 - 07:41 PM
gnu 03 Sep 05 - 07:58 PM
Cluin 03 Sep 05 - 08:00 PM
GUEST,Jon 03 Sep 05 - 08:02 PM
McGrath of Harlow 03 Sep 05 - 08:08 PM
gnu 03 Sep 05 - 08:09 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 03 Sep 05 - 08:56 PM
GUEST 03 Sep 05 - 09:01 PM
Amos 04 Sep 05 - 11:12 AM
McGrath of Harlow 04 Sep 05 - 12:18 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 04 Sep 05 - 01:33 PM
GUEST,Peter Woodruff 04 Sep 05 - 01:46 PM
GUEST,Peter Woodruff 04 Sep 05 - 01:52 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 04 Sep 05 - 02:14 PM
Sorcha 04 Sep 05 - 02:18 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 04 Sep 05 - 02:34 PM
GUEST,Alice w/out cookie 04 Sep 05 - 02:37 PM
SharonA 04 Sep 05 - 02:41 PM
alanabit 04 Sep 05 - 02:54 PM
McGrath of Harlow 04 Sep 05 - 05:07 PM
McGrath of Harlow 04 Sep 05 - 08:41 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 04 Sep 05 - 11:09 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 04 Sep 05 - 11:19 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 05 Sep 05 - 11:13 AM
McGrath of Harlow 05 Sep 05 - 12:58 PM
Little Hawk 05 Sep 05 - 01:11 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 05 Sep 05 - 01:46 PM
Little Hawk 05 Sep 05 - 01:49 PM
pdq 05 Sep 05 - 02:00 PM
Little Hawk 05 Sep 05 - 08:49 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 05 Sep 05 - 10:54 PM
Lowden Jameswright 06 Sep 05 - 09:05 AM
Schantieman 06 Sep 05 - 12:53 PM
Bill D 06 Sep 05 - 01:30 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 06 Sep 05 - 01:38 PM
Bill D 06 Sep 05 - 01:57 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 06 Sep 05 - 02:18 PM
Bill D 06 Sep 05 - 02:36 PM
Bill D 06 Sep 05 - 03:40 PM
pdq 06 Sep 05 - 04:26 PM
M.Ted 06 Sep 05 - 04:43 PM
Bill D 06 Sep 05 - 04:56 PM
McGrath of Harlow 06 Sep 05 - 08:30 PM
Q (Frank Staplin) 06 Sep 05 - 09:26 PM

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Subject: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 05:51 PM

"Trying to build a better river than God." Amos, thread 84276. It cannot be better said. BS: Columnists and Hurricane Katrina

The problem began, in a very small way in the 18th century. Bits of riverfront were levied to keep floodwaters at bay. As time went on, more and more of the Mississippi River and its main tributaries were levied and walled, to keep the spring flood waters from the towns and adjacent land. Fields that once reaped the benefits of nutrients from the floods became fed with fertilizer and water from irrigation. More and more water was channeled downriver towards the Delta.
The Corps of Engineers, that group who believe that they can control Nature, with the support of legislators and the uninformed citizenry, looked upon their handiwork and said it was good. More and more water was funneled into the Delta and its distributaries, changing the shape of the land, creating erosion where land was needed and depositing new soil where it was not. Lafitte and Mark Twain would not recognize their river.

Water and fluids were pumped from the sediments underlying the growing City, the land not only subsided below sealevel but additional land was pumped dry and settled.

The little French and Spanish entreprenurial backwater grew into a mighty industrial center, with refineries and chemical plants and a large population to man the enterprises. More levees and walls were built to keep the water out. The Corps of Engineers were given more and more work- after all, no problem was believed to be beyond their means and skill.

Other priorities intervened, and their unceasing attempts to keep New Orleans dry slowed to a crawl- not that their efforts would have succeeded in the long run. The law makers had other uses for the money and men.

As to the immediate situation, no one cares to spend money for actions that might not be needed for a long time. Men and material were hundreds and thousands of miles away. There was no clear chain of command or infrastructure. Nothing had happened except in some little known foreign places, and plans could wait.

Of course, agencies were created with euphonious acronyms for high-sounding action names, hire staff and make speeches about security. Talk costs little.

The inevitable tragedy. And it will be repeated.
Link shortened and title added. Holler if you don't like. --JC


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: gnu
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 05:59 PM

Ah... Just temper all this with the knowledge that engineers can, indeed, defeat Mother Nature but NOT politicians.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 06:16 PM

The rational thing would be to build it so it was flooded all the time, with canals for streets, like Venice or Amsterdam, and have good enough flood defences to cope effectively with Category Five hurricanes.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 07:23 PM

Venice is a quaint little city of about 350,000 and about 5 sq. mi. Add Mestre and double that.
Metropolitan New Orleans has 1.35 million; 907 sq. mi. of which 468 sq. mi. is land.
No comparison in scale.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: gnu
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 07:32 PM

Given enough time and money, we can do anything.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Cluin
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 07:39 PM

Does Venice face seasonal hurricanes?


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: GUEST,Jon
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 07:41 PM

Given enough time and money, we can do anything.

I don't believe that gnu. We can improve things and NO could have been made more safe, perhaps safe enough to have avoided this but I do have an overriding belief.

That is if anyone believes they can actualy defeat the powers of nature, they will be proved wrong at some point or other.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: gnu
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 07:58 PM

Well, you are wrong. I can defeat Mother Nature. No sweat. But, it takes money and time. The power of nature is nothing compared to the power of humankind.

Oh yeah... same as the whale thread... someone will rush in and go gaga and yaya and say that humans are stupid and don't know which way is up and whatever, ad infinitum.... with no logic or proof or any sense of common sense.

Sorry for sounding so cynical, even condscening (IN RETURN), but, golly gosh, c'mon.... have you not seen the wheel, the house, the automobile, the highways, electricity, the Shuttle? Mother Nature is a pussy compared to humankind.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Cluin
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 08:00 PM

You are being facetious, of course.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: GUEST,Jon
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 08:02 PM

Well, you are wrong. I can defeat Mother Nature. No sweat. But, it takes money and time.

...and knowledge you haven't got.

And yes, gnu, I've seen the wheel and the autombile and CO2 emmissions.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 08:08 PM

And Amsterdam has more like three-quarters of a million people. The point isn't size, it's having cities which allow for the realites of their physical situation, for example by giving the water somewhere to go where it won't be disastrous. The actual details of how that can best be done would vary according to circumstances.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: gnu
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 08:09 PM

Oh FUCK. I forgot. The sky is falling! Run away!

And I shall too. No sense in nonsense.

gbyegnu


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 08:56 PM

"money and time." Perhaps. But that day will be a long time in the coming, if ever.
The only plans so far are to rebuild at the breaks in the canal levees and repair the pumps to pump the water uphill to the river and lake. I hear of no plans to meet a force 5 hurricane. Then wait for the next major hurricane and the next disaster some 100 years down the road.
Remember, the hurricane center veered eastward and hit the Mississippi coast. New Orleans was hit by Force 3 winds. The area of Biloxi-Gulfport, where the force 4-5 hit, is expecting a body count of 1000 when the debris is cleared.

"Give the water somewhere to go"- Where?


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Sep 05 - 09:01 PM

To the sea.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Amos
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 11:12 AM

Gnu:

I likes yore attitude boy!! It is worth thinking on.

A


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 12:18 PM

For example, a network of canals, Q, instead of just paved roads.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 01:33 PM

Gee! Each little canal with its own levees. Trade the SUV in on a speedboat. Give the rebuilding contracts to the execs at Disneyland and Haliburton. Get rid of the half million non-taxpaying poor. Make it a gated city and tax, tax, tax the nation as a whole.


(Or could that be an alternative to spending on military misadventures around the world? Either way, there are fortunes to be made)


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: GUEST,Peter Woodruff
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 01:46 PM

We must save and rebuild New Orleans because the "Big Easy" is more than a cultural treasure it is the Gateway Port to Midland America. Dennis Herstart is wrong when he glibbly suggests never rebuilding New Orleans. Once we get rid of these absolutely incompetent people running this country, we will rebuild New Orleans and then the rest of America.

Peter


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: GUEST,Peter Woodruff
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 01:52 PM

1 800 HELP Now! If you want to help.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 02:14 PM

New Orleans, of course, will be patched up.
It will not, however, be much different from the current version except that part of the affluent portion of its population will move out. Some are already job and house-hunting in Houston and cities even farther afield.
The tax base of the city is not large, and money for major re-structuring must come from outside.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Sorcha
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 02:18 PM

And now, they are saying that another hurricane will hit NO.....


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 02:34 PM

Just read the thread started by Poppagator. Losing people like him, who have done so much to promote New Orleans, is a major loss.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: GUEST,Alice w/out cookie
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 02:37 PM

The restoration of the wetlands and the river delta ecosystem has to be done and then New Orleans could be in a better position to survive storms and floods. This is a specific problem that has been studied and legislation stalled in Congress for many years. The rise of coastal water is a problem for all coast cities in the future global warming.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: SharonA
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 02:41 PM

They'll have to rebuild SOMEthing SOMEwhere there, because New Orleans is/was too important and strategic a port location to just let the land and sea reclaim it. But turning it into New Venice won't help when the 25-foot storm surges swamp it. Maybe the more economical answer is to build a whole new port city on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain or some other area location that is off the Delta and above sea level and that offers a land-buffer from the worst of the Gulf storms.

Whatever they do ultimately, they have to take care of the immediate need to repair the levees and pump out the sludge and rescue whoever is left alive to be rescued and count the dead and salvage the salvagable and let the banks and corporations empty their safes. After that, I'm all for filling in the "bowl" below sea level and either building on top of it or moving the city altogether. Sure, it would be immensely expensive, but it would be a better investment than putting N.O. back together the way it was (with higher levees) and waiting for the next big hurricane to wash the city and the money away again.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: alanabit
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 02:54 PM

I am not the only one who will want to see the city rebuilt and restored so that the inhabitants can return to their own way of life. I am also not the only one who will fear that the same fate could await other coastal towns, if the eco systems on which they depend, are not respected and restored along with the buildings. Screwing about with mother nature is a bit like jumping up and down on a sleeping lion's tail. You can't tell how and when it will react, but you do know it will not be good for you when it does.


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Subject: RE: BS: NEW ORLEANS WILL DROWN AGAIN
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 05:07 PM

Levees that aren't built high enough are one thing - there is always going to be the possibility of some level of water that will come over the top. If it does so you're going to get a flood. But one way and another cities can live with floods like that. Not easily, but it can be done, and having a network of canals within neighbourhoods and streets is one way of making things better.

But a levee that breaches means more than a flood, it means a disaster, and there is no way that that should ever happen. If the problem is they are built in such a way that they get weakened when submerged, they are built in the wrong way. And when they get rebuilt they need to be built in the right way, by people who know how to do that.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 08:41 PM

This extract from an excellent round-up article in the New York Times makes interesting reading about the breaches in the levees. (It comes from page four of the article.)

A surge, probably 10 feet above normal, flowed in from the lake, rising until it began cascading over the top of the sleek, butter-colored walls that stood between the east side of the 17th Street Canal and the city's Bucktown neighborhood.

Greg Breerwood, a deputy district engineer for the Corps, said it appeared that as the weight of the water pressed on the high part of the wall, the water pouring over the top hit the ground on the other side and ate away at the soil supporting its base.

A section of the wall pushed in and the rush of water turned that breach into a gash as broad as a football field is long. The lake and below-sea-level city were becoming one body of water.

"We heard about the flood wall failing," Mr. Breerwood said. "Then we realized there was an open corridor to the city."


Two points. First, ten feet is not a lot, and it's an indication of how inadequate the margin of safety had been allowed to get, and how relatively minor improvements could in fact have made all the difference; and second, that explanation for how "the water pouring over the top hit the ground on the other side and ate away at the soil supporting its base" suggests there was a fundamental flaw in the way those levees were constructed.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 11:09 PM

As you say, an informative article. In addition to inadequate levees, the subsidence of the city also contributed; up to 3 feet additional protection needed, but somehow the subsidence not being measured.
It is questionable whether the levees, even if they had been strengthened and raised, would have held if the full force 5 hurricane had been directed to the city, rather than to the east and the Gulfport area.

The removal of fluids (oil, gas, water) from the subsurface anywhere around New Orleans must stop. The more the city sinks, the higher the levees must be. The subsidence perhaps could be halted by pumping in water, but this would also be an extensive, expensive process. The emphasis now is on oil recovery, not restoration of the subsurface, so more subsidence will occur.

And- 1900 sq. miles of coastal wetland has disappeared over the last 50 years.

See article from National Geographic Magazine, October, 1904, covering subsidence and loss of lands, and making a prediction. One year after, much of the prediction comes true. The car-less, the poor, left to the mercy of the rising water.
Louisiana Bayou


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 04 Sep 05 - 11:19 PM

Another informative article from Time Magazine- and predictions from a Louisiana State water-resource professor :
On the Brink

There have been warnings for years.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 11:13 AM

About 6000 died in the Galveston hurricane-storm surge of 1900. Now the wait to find out the toll in New Orleans-Gulfport area.

(The San Francisco earthquake-fire is sometimes mentioned for loss of life, but the total is uncertain. Estimates vary from about 600 to a few thousand; but many on the casualty lists had moved on and were never properly tallied.)


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 12:58 PM

I notice in that Time article where it says "The price tag for a complete solution could be as much as $14 billion in federal and state money"

Sounds like a bargain now, in the wake of Katrina.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Little Hawk
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 01:11 PM

Mother Nature will finally defeat you, gnu, on the day you die, and will also most definitely and decisively defeat this entire civilization...unless this civilization has the sense to bow to Mother Nature and adapt to it...instead of attempting to conquer that which cannot be conquered.

We are living in a limited system here, and rapidly using up our available line of credit...all over the whole planet.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 01:46 PM

Cleanup, relief and repair probably will cost more than the solution would have been.   
Not counting the lives lost and disrupted.
Seems to be the human way, however.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Little Hawk
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 01:49 PM

Money talks...people walk. Nature waits.

Money is not real, and what is not real passes away.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: pdq
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 02:00 PM

Once the living are all safe and the bodies all collected, it will be time to think about the future size of New Orleans.

It is ridiculous to have a city if over 1/2 million people located on marsh lands at the mouth of one of the largest rivers in the world.

If only half the city can be maintained efficiently, so be it. I don't want the federal government to confiscate trillions of tax dollars to keep "The Big Sleazy" open for business over the next 100 years while the land subsides. We will lose the battle eventually, so lets re-group and move ahead.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Little Hawk
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 08:49 PM

Good point, pdq.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 10:54 PM

They started pumping out water today and temporarily filling the breaks in the Industrial Canal. Work probably will start soon on the other canal where a break occurred. I expect N. O. will mostly return to its old ways by this time next year. At least 1/3 of the city stayed mostly dry, and many houses there were only slightly damaged by the force 3 winds. There will be many jobs rebuilding in the areas that were inundated.

pdq, the metropolitan city is 1.3 million. I will guess about 0.3 million will permanently move to other areas, but they gradually will be replaced by others moving in. The Delta will be patched to some extent, but it will never return to its conditions of 50-100 years ago.

The Port of South Louisiana is America's largest port. Add the nearby Port of New Orleans (number 5 in the U. S.) and the importance of the area to the American economy cannot be doubted. Add other Louisiana ports- Port of Plaquemines, Port of Baton Rouge and the Port of Lake Charles- and other ports, except Houston and New York, are dwarfed. Other Gulf ports in the Texas and Mississippi hurricane-prone coast, when added together, far eclipse New York.   

Many coastal cities around the world are in danger zones from earthquakes and tsunamis, and typhoons-hurricanes- there are commercial needs for them and they will always rebuild.

Will New Orleans host the Superbowl in 2008 (or next available unassigned date)? I am almost willing to bet on it.

Will a 'permanent' solution to the flooding be effected? Doubtful.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Lowden Jameswright
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 09:05 AM

"Mother Nature is a pussy compared to humankind"
I hope Yellowstone don't prove you wrong gnu!


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Schantieman
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:53 PM

...and what's going to happen when a cyclone hits Bangladesh?   Not a lot of money and other resources there to patch it up.

There, the people have no choice but to live in a dangerous location - they have nowhere else to go. The USA is rich and has lots of space: why not rebuild the city further inland; on higher ground and out of the reach of maritime hurricanes?

Steve


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 01:30 PM

"...why not rebuild the city further inland; on higher ground and out of the reach of maritime hurricanes?"

well, the answer WILL be that it wouldn't then be historic New Orleans, and people are VERY attached to history, even at high prices and danger.

I have been saying for years (and few times this past week) that serious thought needs to be given to where major populations ought to be allowed to build and live. The Port of New Orleans is pretty important, and I suppose some of that area MUST be repaired and rebuilt, but to allow it to just be patched back together and 'improved' a bit is sheer folly. The next disaster will cost even more. There are other cities engaging in high-risk expansion, like building in the hills around Los Angeles where fires hit every few years. It needs to be stopped............


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 01:38 PM

As the largest volume American seaport, as noted above, it will stay where it is.
Port of South Louisiana- 216 million tons
Port of New Orleans, same area- 85 million tons
Port of Plaquemines, same area- 59 million tons
--Combined-------------------------360 million tons
Adjacent Mississippi-Alabama Ports- 78 million tons
--Total----------------------------438 million tons
Other major ports
Port of Houston- 178 million tons
Port of New York- 135 million tons
Port of Beaumont, TX- 86 million tons
Port of Corpus Christi, TX- 78 million tons

Add the petrochemical and other industries centered around New Orleans and there is no way the metropolis will be moved. One-quarter of the American petrochemical industry is there.

For the shanty singers, Mobile is still around at 46 million tons.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 01:57 PM

no doubt the PORT will remain...it doesn't require a city of 600,000 (many of whom were unemployed) to run a port, however.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 02:18 PM

"Many of whom are unemployed"- wrong!
New Orleans unemployment was 6.2 %, which I think is about the U. S. Average and lower than in many cities. Many low-wage jobs, but necessary jobs to the American economy, and living is much cheaper than in NY, Detroit or Chicago.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 02:36 PM

hmmm...6.2%...ok. Of course, as in any city, that only reflects those who are looking for work. (I guess I was hasty after looking at the status of many of the refugees)

My main point still is: It is possible to repair and operate the Port without needing to have a tourist Mecca to protect. Repair and protect certain necessities and be sure they are on the higest ground possible. All other construction to cafefully reviewed on a case-by-case basis...etc..etc...Not very 'interesting' or pretty, but perhaps a bit saner. (No...I do NOT imagine my suggestions will be adopted...)


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 03:40 PM

one more point...after pondering a bit, I realize I was 'thinking' poor & marginalized when I typed 'unemployed'. Even though some of those people had jobs of sorts, they might have a better life in other parts of the south...or even the country as a whole. The point is, a large 'underclass' who can't evacuate easily is a problem for a city with New Orleans' problems...even if they ARE employed.

The total population of the country, the state and the cities needs to be reduced, but that's a different, though related issue.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: pdq
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 04:26 PM

Right now, the US national unemployment rate is 4.9%. New Orleans is quite a lot higher than the average.

Bill D. has pointed out, once again, that we simply have too many people. The US population went up by 40 million just since 1990. The people pouring in from Mexico are at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder in their own country, lower here. They come here with no doctors. That alone is a huge problem, one that is highlighted in a disaster when doctors are badly needed.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: M.Ted
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 04:43 PM

There are certainly plenty of things to think about, related to our unfortunate impact on nature, and it's unfortunate impact on us--However, Shantieman's idea, a variation of a similar ideas bounced around lately, is just plain stupid--you can't get away from the perils of nature--You suggest moving the city up the river?

The levee, man's largest creation, runs for hundreds of miles, because the river has always, and will always, rise, and leave us not forget that it is the rise in the river and the break in the levee that has caused this damage.   Of course, let's not forget the New Madrid fault, somewhat upriver, recently active again, which was, in relatively recent history, the center of the most extensive series of earthquakes in our history--

Get away from the river and you are in tornado country, which actually kill more people and destroy more property than earthquakes--The west coast is just as perilous, with earthquakes and fires taking place of the tornados--

The northern cities are not safe, summer heat waves are actually the most fatal of all weather disasters--No way to fight the Tao--


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 04:56 PM

..and once again, I will try to make the point that population alone is not the most immanent problem....but it IS the nexus of most of the other problems. No matter what we do about crop engineering, flood control, disaster planning, highway construction, oil drilling, pollution control, power plant construction..etc..etc...etc, NONE of those issues can be effectively controlled if population keeps growing. It's all band-aid treatment.
   New Orleans, as a city of 75,000, could probably be sustained as a port forever...but, as a metropolitan area of 500,000-750,000 and growing, it will be forever on the brink of disaster. Many of the current problems have been exacerbated by trying to control the Mississippi river in an artifical channel for commercial purposes and thus losing the barrier marshes that was nature's flood control. It sorta worked...until Nature got mean. Yeah, it could work again..for what? 50 years? 30? 20? next year? If they decided to make the city safe against a category 5, how long would it take and how many billions would it cost?

   When I talk about population control, it's partly about reducing the strain on a very hard-to-control area that is below sea level, but also about reducing the strain on the country as a whole, so that flooding in New Orleans doesn't have Texas, Arkansas and other states groaning under the flood of refugees!

You want to read EXPERTS on it? Do a google search on "carrying capacity" with maybe terms like "flood plain" and "Mesa Verde" and "global warming" added. It ain't a pretty picture, and it's much easier to be 'optomistic' than to deal with REAL long range planning...like what are we gonna do a CENTURY from now? The politician who is just worried about re-election doesn't want to think about much beyond the next pork-barrel project.


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 08:30 PM

"... a disaster when doctors are badly needed.

But when Cuba's offer of 1500 doctors to help out is evidently being completely ignored. (I suppose it'd be embarassing if they failed to "defect" when they got there.)


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Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 09:26 PM

As posted before, N. O. has a metropolitan population of 1.3 million. City figures in the almanac reflect political boundaries, not the area of contiguous population. Much of the area is NOT under water and will rebuild rapidly.

New Orleans is the largest port city in North America, but that is just the tip of the economy. One quarter of petrochemical production is there. A great part of the oil refining capacity is there. Oil production is strong. It is the biggest grain handler, etc. All of us will experience higher prices for many products besides oil for the next year until industry there gets back on track. Once power grids are restored in the LA-MS-Al Gulf area, production and jobs will rise very rapidly. The band-aids will be larger than usual, but don't expect any revolutionary changes.
The entertainment industry (from food to the houses of the Rising Sun) get a lot of publicity, but they are a lesser part of the area's economy. Sun-seekers and gamblers along the coast are the money trees in this segment of the economy.

Employment figures vary depending on the agency doing the estimating. Chicago unemployment is 5.9%. New Orleans, seasonally adjusted, is 4.9%, but I took the uncorrected figure of 6.2%. Remember that cost of living is lower in New Orleans, so a dollar goes farther there than in Chi, NY, etc. And you don't have to wear a parka to bed and still freeze like you do in Detroit or Chicago if you can't pay the heating bill.

Houston is welcoming the displaced. Its metropolitan population is over 5 million, and jobs are open. Dallas-Ft.Worth also has 5 million, but employment is less buoyant. Austin and San Antonio are both larger than 1 million, but the large low-income Hispanic population (59%) in the latter means competition for entry level jobs is fierce and some knowledge of Spanish is needed for some jobs.
The area as a whole will have no problem employing the approx. 250,000 moved there, if they wish to stay. Many probably will go back to metropolitan N. O.

The world's overpopulation and misuse of the planet are a whole nother bundle of problems. Little will be done until crisis time. Many of us condemm China for trying to implement the one child program. Mankind doesn't like long range policies. We are the grasshopper in Aesop's fable.


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