BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?

Subject: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: SINSULL
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 03:07 PM

The experts knew and whenever they had an opportunity let authorities know that New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen. A Category 4 hurricane would flood the city. It has happened.

So... where is the next disatser waiting to happen? Where are the experts begging officials to take notice that a Category 4 or a 4" rain or 5.5 earthquake or a weakened dam will destroy everything in its path and leave thousands in the same condition as the people left in NO?

If we know, we can write and shout and make sure they KNOW and be forced to prepare properly. What has been done on LI to enable an evacuation in case of a nuclear accident, for example?

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 03:14 PM

where is the next disatser waiting to happen?

No expert can or does say that.
A disaster, yes, but the next, no.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: SINSULL
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 03:19 PM

I guess I am requesting options, wolf. Maybe if we remind our local politicians that another potential disater is in the making they will now speak up rather than cut dollars from critical programs.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Clinton Hammond
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 03:19 PM

That the funny thing about the unpredictable... you cannot prepare for it

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 03:42 PM

LA, of course. But since it cannot be evacuated, there will not even be a plan to do so.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 04:01 PM

This hurricane season has been projected to be one of the worst in history. So it's entirely conceivable that the next disaster could very well occur somewhere on the Gulf coast (Gulf of Mexico) or the Atlantic coast of the US. And it could happen next week, or the week after, or the month after that.

And we could very well see a repeat of what happened last year where the same areas kept getting hit over and over again.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 04:06 PM

Experts expect the US to be hit by 4 more hurricaines this year.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 04:25 PM

Yes, disasters are unpredictable and there's absolutely no way to be 100% prepared for them. But that doesn't mean there's not a need to fully prepare for the eventuality of a set of most likely scenarios. Earthquakes along the major fault lines, volcanic explosions in the northwest, more hurricanes hitting major Gulf and Atlantic coast cities*, tsunamis on the Pacific coast. These are all events about which there is no question as to if they are going to happen. The geologic and historic record shows that they've happened before. The question is simply when they will happen again.


*And let's not just think cities in the south. Of the 275 hurricanes known to have hit the mainland US since records began being kept in 1851, 56 of them have hit from Maryland northward. New Orleans may have been extremely vulnerable to a disastrous hurricane strike but New York is not immune.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Cluin
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 04:29 PM

There's always the super-volcano of Yellowstone waiting to pretty much wipe out the North American continent. Or an asteroid of no really huge size could do it anywhere,

And of course the next disaster is hitting the whole planet right now, but it is happening slowly enough for most people to deny it is happening at all.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Ebbie
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 04:46 PM

Cluin, I could also get hit by a truck. That's not what we are talking about.

Sinsull, thank you for starting this thread. It's interesting to me that in another thread I just mentioned this same possibility and urged the same thing: That in the process of facing up to and fixing what has gone wrong this time that our representatives in this country get ready and put something in place for the next time. Because it will happen. If we're lucky, it won't happen this year, giving us more time, but it will happen.

Let's hold their feet to the fire. Let's not let this happen again. What in the world are drills for if they don't teach anybody anything??

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Cluin
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 04:59 PM

No, Ebbie. That would be an accident. The others are disasters (Well, the truck thing would be a disaster for you and yours.) and as has been pointed out by others, we don't know where the next one will happen. The ones I mentioned are possibilities.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Peace
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 05:04 PM

Might be a way to predict this.

If Georgie reaches for his guitar or Condi decides to shop for shoes . . . .

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: SINSULL
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 05:24 PM

Global Warning is probably the best example of what I am asking for. Experts are not in agreement but decisions seem to be made along political lines and financial priorities. When New York City is under water and the midwest is a desert, let's be sure the then president doesn't claim that no one had any idea this could happen.

California has people living on the Fault. The west continues to build up fire prone areas. Remember the defective equipment in India that caused a gas leak and wiped out an entire town? How safe are the tank farms, chemical companies, etc. in your town? How many times do we hear that fire equipment cannot handle fires above the fifth floor but we continue to build hotels, casinos, etc. that are death traps in a fire. Just some thoughts.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 05:30 PM

Talk about a possible big quake plus tsunami on the west coast, anywhere from Anchorage to San Diego.
As Sinsull implies, could be anywhere, any time. So cross your fingers and whistle Dixie.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Cluin
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 05:34 PM

Are we only talking about the U.S.?

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Don Firth
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 06:20 PM

Considering the various possibilities in the "War on Terrorism"—including projections by the gummint itself. . . .

How well prepared is the country to respond to, say, a genuine nuclear bomb smuggled into one of the numerous American seaport cities in a cargo container? I understand (gummint's own figures) that only about 4% of the hundreds, if not thousands, of cargo containers shipped into the U. S. every day are inspected more thoroughly than a cursory glance at the shipping manifest ("Item 14, Machine Tools; Item 15, More Machine Tools; Item 16, Explosive Nuclear Device; Item 17, Another Crate of Machine Tools. . . .").

I have little faith in Homeland Security and all that to realistically prevent something like that from happening should terrorists acquire the means. And as to the follow-up, especially in the light of the Federal Government's response to the New Orleans situation, should such a terrorist attack occur, I figure that since I live in a major West Coast seaport city with lots of container ships coming in and out, I assume that if I'm far enough away from Ground Zero to escape being vaporized or seriously injured, I should immediatly put on my lead BVDs and expect to rely on my own resources.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Peace
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 06:34 PM

1) Find a quiet room with a sturdy chair in which to sit.
2) Remove articles that could become projectiles.
3) Close the curtains to prevent being cut by flying glass.
4) Put your hands behind your head and hunch forward.
5) Place your head between your knees.
6) Kiss your ass goodbye.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 06:42 PM

Until this last week I had assumed there were regularly updated plans in existence for all these disasters, so that whatever happened the available resources would be deployed without any delay.

That's pretty clearly not something it is safe to assume is the case in the USA. I hope we're a bit better organised here (and I think we are actually, because I used to be involved in keeping our local information base up to date).

I hope that Americans are now going to be hammwering on their City Halls and so forth, demanding to know what kind of advance planning exists, and what it looks like.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: GUEST,Jon
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 06:58 PM

That the funny thing about the unpredictable... you cannot prepare for it

If Clinton's logic was applied to the nth degree, if the lock on his door was broken, there would be no point in replacing it. After all when someone tried the door, found it open and walked in and stole all his stuff would not be predictable. There would also be no point in insurance as even if someone found the door open, there is no guarantee property would be stolen.

We all make risk assesments and hopefully take appropriate precautions in our everyday lives. In the case of governments we (or at least I) expect those risk assesments and precautions to be taken on far bigger issues, issues where the lives of many people can be at stake.

I don't know much about the US but I know there are earthquakes in certain areas. One would hope that plans exist for worse case scenarios in those areas.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Cluin
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 07:01 PM

One would hope that plans exist for worse case scenarios in those areas.

Don't hold your breath...

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 07:11 PM

Don't hold your breath - use your breath to Find Out. There will never be a better time to do that.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 08:46 PM

Plans DO exist. On paper.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 10:11 PM

Folks, I live so close to the Snake River Plain as to live on it. This plain begins with caldera in the Western part of the state and spreads like a smile across it, to be anchored on the East by the Yellowstone Caldera. It is active, very active, seismelogically. Hot springs bubble from the earth all around here. Solidified lava flows are everywhere.

Ain't nobody worried, 'cause if Yellowstone blows there ain't shit we can do about it. Get on the road and move somewhere else, yeah. We've got our plans made for an evacuation. But it's a lot more likely that we'll be threatened by a wildfire than Yellowstone blowing it's top again. Right now something like 15,000 acres on the other side of the Pocatello Range are burning -- yesterday ash from another fire fell on the golf course that's on the other side of my back fence.

Or consider The Site -- the Idaho National Laboratory, about 50 miles away to the Northwest. From one place you can see 53 nuclear reactors...they're all shut down. But there are spent nuclear fuel rods out there, and they're going to start making Pu-238....

Or the railyards that are right in the middle of town. You know what they ship by train...and truck? Any of you all live near a major highway?

And consider that another of this year's hurricanes could strike the Gulf Coast region already savaged by Katrina....

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 10:47 PM

In Brisbane we have a dam built across a river well upstream. Unfortunately, some geologists seem to know that an old fault (apparently considered inactive for the moment!) runs down the river and right thru the dam...

If she breaks there will be a wall of water down stream right where they are busy building houses, but no-one will have forseen that either, I'm sure.

Lucky me - I bought nowhere near there.. ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 10:51 PM

...what Nature doesn't do to us
Ladadeedadeedada
Will be done by our fellow man
Ladadeedada."

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: GUEST,shanghaiceltic
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 10:59 PM

Why does it have to be the US, plenty of disasters have happened and will happen well away from the US.

Tokyo is well overdue it Big Quake by about 10 years. We still get killer floods in Bangladesh, typhoons regularly hit China and cause high loss of life but dont really get a mention.

The 3 Gorges Dam is an ecological disaster and could well be human one if the damn breaches. Chinese dams have had a habit of doing that in the past.

The tsunami came literally out of the blue, Katrina was being tracked. I guess it depends on whether CNN are in the area.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 11:12 PM

I can think of many, many, many places around the world that are overdue for a disaster. Natural or manmade, they're overdue.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Peace
Date: 05 Sep 05 - 11:13 PM

Watch the shingles on yer roof. Keep the roof wet--garden hose works for that.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: GUEST,Art Thieme
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:15 AM

In the "You ain't seen nothin yet!" category: As I've said, a bad hurricane year is when you get hit by one named Zelda!!!

But there ain't no good to come from gettin' paranoid about these disaster scenarios. What goes down, will go down! Is what is. Shit happens. But lovely and intense orgasms do too----. After all is said and done, this life is a huge bell curve. Most of us were lucky enough not to be in New Orleans then. And we weren't in Galveston on that "MIGHTY DAY" either.

Art

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:21 AM

The next disaster has hit. Martin Gibson is back.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: snarky
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:26 AM

Art Thieme at his very best:In the "You ain't seen nothin yet!" category: As I've said, a bad hurricane year is when you get hit by one named Zelda!!!

But there ain't no good to come from gettin' paranoid about these disaster scenarios. What goes down, will go down! Is what is. Shit happens. But lovely and intense orgasms do too----. After all is said and done, this life is a huge bell curve. Most of us were lucky enough not to be in New Orleans then. And we weren't in Galveston on that "MIGHTY DAY" either.




Hey, I was in Galveston! Wasn't that A MIGHT FLOOD? IT BLEW ALL THE PEOPLE ALL AWAY?

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: snarky
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:27 AM

Bell curve?????

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Peace
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:42 AM

Regardless of where it hits these are the folks you'll be depending on . . . .

"By Peter G. Gosselin and Alan C. Miller, Times Staff Writers


WASHINGTON — While the federal government has spent much of the last quarter-century trimming the safety nets it provides Americans, it has dramatically expanded its promise of protection in one area — disaster.

Since the 1970s, Washington has emerged as the insurer of last resort against floods, fires, earthquakes and — after 2001 — terrorist attacks.

But the government's stumbling response to the storm that devastated the nation's Gulf Coast reveals that the federal agency singularly most responsible for making good on Washington's expanded promise has been hobbled by cutbacks and a bureaucratic downgrading.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency once speedily delivered food, water, shelter and medical care to disaster areas, and paid to quickly rebuild damaged roads and schools and get businesses and people back on their feet. Like a commercial insurance firm setting safety standards to prevent future problems, it also underwrote efforts to get cities and states to reduce risks ahead of time and plan for what they would do if calamity struck.

But in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, FEMA lost its Cabinet-level status as it was folded into the giant new Department of Homeland Security. And in recent years it has suffered budget cuts, the elimination or reduction of key programs and an exodus of experienced staffers.

The agency's core budget, which includes disaster preparedness and mitigation, has been cut each year since it was absorbed by the Homeland Security Department in 2003. Depending on what the final numbers end up being for next fiscal year, the cuts will have been between about 2% and 18%.

The agency's staff has been reduced by 500 positions to 4,735. Among the results, FEMA has had to cut one of its three emergency management teams, which are charged with overseeing relief efforts in a disaster. Where it once had "red," "white" and "blue" teams, it now has only red and white.

Three out of every four dollars the agency provides in local preparedness and first-responder grants go to terrorism-related activities, even though a recent Government Accountability Office report quotes local officials as saying what they really need is money to prepare for natural disasters and accidents.

"They've taken emergency management away from the emergency managers," complained Morrie Goodman, who was FEMA's chief spokesman during the Clinton administration. "These operations are being run by people who are amateurs at what they are doing."

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Peace
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:44 AM

So, don't count on FEMA. You could once, but it seems no more.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: alanabit
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 03:49 AM

There are certain catastrophes, which look like natural disasters, which have been largely brought about by man's tinkering with the balance of nature. An example, which come to mind, is the flooding of rivers, because extra water volume can no longer be taken up by land adjacent to large stretches of the banks, because concrete has been placed there. Another is the repeated dust bowl syndrome (both in America and the former Soviet Union). We have known for years that there would be more huricanes and more violent ones due to global warming. Unless the oil companies face a huge loss of income, nothing will be done about by the (mis)government which effectively killed the Kyoto Agreement.
You can say that protecting the environment is expensive. I regret very much to see the people of New Orleans finding out what it costs not to protect it.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Mr Red
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 08:16 AM

Here in Britain we have the Thames barrier to hold back the North Sea - good for 50 years they said. But it was built before the 1987 storms. I have heard that London will be at real risk much sooner than expected because realisation that warm weather evaporates water faster. Rain is the least of the problem.
Energy (which cannot be created nor destroyed) is it's name. Which by mechanisms I can't begin to understand transfer in part to wind power.
Where is it all coming from? Millions of years of sunlight making fossil fuels then being released in mere 10's of years is a bit of a clue.
How many people the earth can sustain long term is another clue.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 09:14 AM

Who can you depend upon upon in a disaster?

Well, yourself.

Prepare an "away" kit. Be sure to include all prescription medicines you might take and, if possible, additional handwritten prescriptions from your doctor for more. Include toilet paper, a good book or two, some food with a long shelflife (I use MREs) that won't freeze, a Lexan or metal bowl and cup for each person, water purification tablets or pump, strike-anywhere matches in a waterproof container, a sharp pocketknife (lockback is safest), appropriate clothing, a blanker or sleeping bag for each person -- think of it as an impromptu camping trip that will last a week. And a cell phone WITH CHARGER.

Don't let your gasoline tank get below half, either.

Prepare a safe place at home, away from glass doors and windows. Plan for a stay of a couple of weeks. Be sure to include enough water!

I have a radio that will run on batteries or by a crank -- no, I didn't buy it, it was a Christmas present a couple years ago.

Flashlights and batteries. Perhaps some of those light sticks, too.

Now. Most of this stuff you already have! No need to buy it! If you have a water heater, turn it off, close the inlet valve, and voila! gallons and gallons of good water!

How much food do you have at home right now? -- plan on eating frozen stuff first. Canned (tinned) stuff you could grab? Don't plan on gourmet meals, but take it from one who knows, a bowl of warm rice with chunks of beef jerky and a few raisins cooked in it can beat a five star meal under the right conditions. And water, cold or warm, can make a very satisfying drink.

Tag the stuff you want to save; set a priority (a red sticker means... a blue one means...).

Use your imagination. You can survive -- heck, your ancestors did, didn't they?

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: GUEST,Don the Man
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:33 PM

The next flippin' disaster will hit in Blind River...when the beer runs out. Don't flippin' be there when it happens!

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Tam the man
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 12:36 PM

When Bush goes back to the whithouse

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Ebbie
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 01:31 PM

A disaster here in Juneau, Alaska, would logically come from either a wildfire or from an earthquake- or a bio or chemical or nuclear attack.

We are a l o n g but narrow town on the fringe of a large national forest. In front of us is an arm of the Pacific ocean- beyond it is an island, also heavily wooded. During a long dry spell our woods become very dry; many people camp in the woods.

We don't have a workable evacuation plan for 30,000 waterbound people.

Juneau does not have a history of large earthquakes. On the other hand, these mountains came from someplace, so it is not inconceivable.

A terrorist attack using biological or chemical or nuclear weapons is not impossible. I have no idea of how such a thing would be addressed. There is a governmental body that is forumulating plans- however, as recently as last year they/we still don't have a secure place to go.

Last year I reminded the chairman of the committee of the 'Fallout Shelter' buildings that were designated as such years ago and asked her if there is such an area today. She said, No.

Thanks, Rap. I'm going back to that committee for further information. I'm sure I won't be the only one.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Tam the man
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 01:43 PM

Iran, North Korea, and all the other countries of evil as called by the evil dark lord himself George W bush, thank god we in Britain have him as a leader, but some Americans voted for him.

and you lot are stuck.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 01:51 PM

There are disasters that can come out of teh blue and are so big that nothing could help.   But many, perhaps most dissters aren't like that. There's some kind of warning, and responding the right way can make a real difference.

If you are living in a place where earthquakes can be expected, you build appropriately. The Japanese used to build houses out of paper and wood with that in m ind; now they use reinforced building techniques, which is another way of dealing with the same problem.

The tsunami only killed the numbers it did because there wasn't any effective early warning system. If it happened in the Pacific, there would be such a warning for people on America's West Coast. (Whether it would be used in the most effgective way is perhaps rather more questionable in the light of what happened last week.

The important thing is to have competant people work out in advance what could be done to minimise loss of life in any disaster, and get those plans properly worked out, and the necessary preliminary work and resource allocation done in advance.

Of course I doubt if any of that is going to be done in the USA unless there is a thorough clear-out of the crooks and incompetants you seem to have allowed to run things. And stop pretending that everything has to be done by private profit dominated operations, and buddies of the fat cats.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 10:44 PM

On the other hand, Ebbie, a tsunami IS possible. The channel would act to increase its force.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 09:21 AM

The fires burning east and west of town are about 10% contained, according to today's paper. The one west of town is threatening to come over the ridge of hills and will then threaten our water supply with pollution; the Interagency has sent in lots more help to prevent that.

Over in Oregon, in the Sister area, a "bubble" in the earth's surface is growing at the rate of 1.4 inches per year. Geologists say that it's equivalent to a lake of magma 65 feet across and a mile deep -- it may be a new volcano forming.

I can't do much about either the fire or the bubble. Or the bubble under Yellowstone Lake. Or much of anything else.

I think I'll take a shower and go to work, instead.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Ebbie
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 01:16 PM

The official word as to a possible tsunami in the Juneau area is that the many offshore islands break up the waves so effectively that only the swell of a tsunami would be a factor here.

If you noticed, we don't have normal wave action here. Which is why so many people think of the channel as a lake or some other still water.

The 1964 Anchorage earthquake- 500 + miles from here by air - don't know how many by water - caused a swell in the channel in Juneau that caused two or three fishing boats to swamp, their mooring lines not able to accommodate the surge.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: tarheel
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 01:20 PM

I DON'T KNOW,WHERE?????

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 08 Sep 05 - 08:48 AM

I hope so, Ebbie. I like Juneau, except for those @#!@!%!! cruise ships (of course, I also like Skagway, Sitka, Ketchikan and the rest, except for the same reason). I even told the library director that they were keeping bad company, but she said that it certainly wasn't by choice.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Ebbie
Date: 08 Sep 05 - 02:25 PM

Come back, Rapaire, and help us FIGHT. There is a sizable contingent in southeast Alaska that has proposed reducing the number of cruiseships back to the level of 1994. I don't think that will happen- but we have to keep trying to get a handle on it. At this point, the cruiselines have gone to fewer (just barely) ships but they are humongously larger. It used to be that a ship that carried 1900 passengers (plus a crewman for every two passengers) was a huge ship. Now, they have brought in ships that carry 3400!!!!<. And no end in sight.

It used to be that there might be 5 ships in on one day- I remember the first time that there were seven ships in the harbor. For the last couple of years, we have two days when there are eight ships in.

I remember, about 15 years ago, when the cruise season began late May, early June and it ended at Labor Day. Now, the first ship comes in late April, early May and it ends in late September, early October. I have no doubt that if the cruise industry finds a way to further mitigate the roll of a ship during oceanic storms they will eventually operate year 'round.

I don't want any cruiseship to suffer a disaster at sea- but if one ever did, the loss of 3500 lives might take them aback.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Rapparee
Date: 08 Sep 05 - 02:59 PM

The ones I've seen would, when cleaned of furniture, fuel, and other things, make great artificial reefs.

Subject: RE: BS: So Where will The Next Disaster Hit?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 08 Sep 05 - 03:52 PM

Now a more serious post (sorry, Sinsull)

There's a good article about accidents by the Dutch Willem Wagenaar titled 'Impossible accidents'. Summary: Each single accident is extremely unlikely, but accidents happen nevertheless and whatever precaution is taken will only avoid the particular accidents one has thought about before. The accidents that will happen are the others.

It is a bit the same with disaasters. Though some Mudcat Monday morning quarterbackers have made more or less useful remarks about what could (should) have been done in NO. But if you think about each conceivable disaster and make all you can to deal with the possible consequences there's not enough money to pay for all that. I don't mean the best option is always to do nothing but sometimes a possible option is not to act with respect to some scenarios of disaster.

Look back at your lives and think about the disasters that seemed likely. For me, nuclear war (and nuclear winter, that's the opposite of global warming, BTW) was the biggest menace for most of my life. I for instance had not the fantasy or imagination to think of an organisation below the level of states to be a significant source of disaster. That is, in, say 1999, I had no idea that a single man and his organisation (Bin Laden and Al Qaeda) could possibly nuke European or American towns (I still hope they can't but I'm not completely sure). Global warming was a small danger in my mind, compared to nuclear winter, only about 15 years ago.

From that experience I predict that the next (really big) disaster will be one that we do not think of yet. But I also predict that if there'll still be Mudcat (a world without Mudcat, isn't that the biggest conceivable disaster?) then some posters will say what should have been done (and that Bush is to blame, if it comes within the next three years).

Recently I have read what two clever scientists have written about really big disasters. Some ideas (from memory):

The big mountain in Teneriffe (?, whatever, Canaries it is anyway) that is kind of unstable will definitely fall into the sea (it could happen next week, or the week after, or the month after that, Carol). The wave will still be about 100 feet high at New York.

There will be a global epidemy fairly certain within the next fifty years.

A genetic wengineering experiment could go very wrong.

The SETI efforts could signal to one superior life form that they'd better get rid of us now. Better safe than sorry, who could blame them?

And then the very weird, unprobable, but theoretically possible strangelet scenario. (Not too bad in my mind, for we'd all be gone in a second or so; I wonder how believers in reincarnation deal with that, BTW).

Wolfgang